How Western Civilization Could Collapse - <AUTHOR> http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse <comment><USER2> I am unconvinced, both by the comparison of the modern social order to a bicycle and by historical comparisons to Rome.

In the first place, economic growth slows down and reverses from time to time. Society doesn't collapse. People paint the Great Depression as having been "saved" by WW2, not as a sequence of events that all fed into each other. In other words, if the Great Depression and subsequent world war _wasn 't_ a perfect example of the worst that could possibly happen, I dare you to point out a _plausible_ worse scenario.

No, nuclear war doesn't count, even the worst nuclear war imaginable won't be as bad as WW2 was. Nuclear winter is a myth, the particles fall out of the air too quickly, and the inverse square law greatly limits direct damage. Most civilian population centers won't get hit, unless we start another arms race, so we're looking at a few decades at most of economic disruption in the worst possible case.

Finally, the Roman Empire was in no way comparable to the current global regime. The political systems seen by Rome were downright primitive compared to our representative democracies, multi-state unions, and trade federations. The Anglosphere is in no way vulnerable to dictatorship, and while Europe was once capable of fascism in the past, the days where a would-be Hitler or Mussolini could whip populations into a murderous frenzy are long gone. The worst that can happen is sovereign devolution AKA Brexit, Grexit, Scottish independence _et al_.

The might of Western hegemony is going to slowly fade away and new regional orders will slowly gain strength. The EU will slowly evolve along those orders and the world will stumble towards a new, multi-polar equilibrium, out of which a new global governing body will emerge, fail, then emerge again.

Rome "collapsed" by spreading across Europe, Western civilization will "collapse" by spreading across the globe.

<comment><USER3> > No, nuclear war doesn't count, even the worst nuclear war imaginable won't > be as bad as WW2 was.

Let's do some math. Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed ~100,000 people, making it 50,000 per bomb. The US has currently 31,175 nuclear weapons at its disposal. If it were to even use 5% of its arsenal, assuming they have the same power as the bombs from '45 (which they don't), it would amount to 150,000,000 deaths. This is 2.5 times more than the total casualties of ww2, without even accounting for the nuclear weapon use of the opposing side.

<comment><USER2> You're assuming all the bombs will be dropped on population centers. They won't. Most weapons will be used on military targets. Removing your enemy's ability to wage war will always take priority over non-military targets.

<comment><USER4> > You're assuming all the bombs will be dropped on population centers.

He isn't. He is assuming 5% of bombs will be dropped on population centers.

> Removing your enemy's ability to wage war will always take priority over > non-military targets.

You are applying conventional military tactics in a nuclear war. They don't apply. See MAD[1], the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence.

[1] [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction)

<comment><USER5> MAD isn't current US policy and hasn't been for some time. US doctrine allows for flexible responses and the possibility of a nuclear exchange staying within the bounds of a regional conflict, rather than automatically escalating immediately to all-out nuclear spasm.

And I don't think it was ever the official policy of the USSR; their planners believed that even all-out nuclear war was both survivable and winnable. (Which made the whole concept distinctly iffy as the foundation of deterrence.)

<comment><USER2> To piggyback on this:

MAD is a convenient fiction that politicians and the military use for political purposes. It has zero bearing on any actual military strategy because it is not a real scenario. There aren't enough strategic weapons in the world to bring about such an outcome.

To learn more about how the military community thinks of nuclear warfare, follow this guy on Quora:

[https://www.quora.com/profile/Thierry-Etienne-Joseph- Rotty](https://www.quora.com/profile/Thierry-Etienne-Joseph-Rotty)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> > The Syrian case aside, another sign that we're entering into a danger zone, > Homer-Dixon says, is the increasing occurrence of what experts call > nonlinearities, or sudden, unexpected changes in the world's order, such as > the 2008 economic crisis, the rise of ISIS, Brexit, or Donald Trump's > election.

Unexpected or rather unexpected to those on the far-left of the political spectrum, who very much like their far-right counterparts often live in echo chambers.

Growing dissatisfaction against globalism and feeble governance didn't happen overnight.

Those who failed to notice it simply were not looking in the right places.

<comment><USER7> I'm pretty tired of "far-left" and "far-right" characterizations of most people. Most people are moderates on one side or the other (or put another way, they don't easily fit into either of the "left" or "right" buckets). Lots of people across that whole spectrum were surprised by the election, not just "the far left".

Nobody failed to notice economic dissatisfaction, but many were surprised that the President's particular brand of speaking to it was as successful as it was, especially coming from a Republican.

<comment><USER8> Well, the Democrats seemed to not even _try_ to speak to it, even though the working class was (once upon a time) their core constituency. So maybe it's fair to say that, if the Democrats "noticed" it, it didn't register in their thinking to the degree it should have.

<comment><USER9> It just didn't resonate.

[http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-full-transcript- econ...](http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-full-transcript-economic- speech-489602)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> My favorite part -

> one of the most important lessons from Rome's fall is that complexity has a > cost. As stated in the laws of thermodynamics, it takes energy to maintain > any system in a complex, ordered state – and human society is no exception.

<comment><USER11> That is an interesting thought. We tend think of that law in terms of raw energy, but the inertia of society is no exception. We see this over and over whenever anybody goes on strike. Business grind to a halt. Sometimes entire industries. The Russian revolution was an example of several key industries doing this at the same time, and that society collapsed, eventually replaced by another.

It's not just a matter of supplying the raw power to keep everything running. It's also the sheer amount of continually supplying human effort and willpower. Much more nebulous concepts, but arguably more important.

<comment><USER12> Great points. However, equally important is the notion of "stability" \-- there are large differences in how resilient complex processes can be against external forces.

For humans, this can be both a good thing and a bad thing. E.g. the "anti- fragile" nature of some decentralized endeavors vs. an unstoppable crazed mob during a fever pitch social or political crisis.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> > Pre-existing ethnic tensions increased, creating fertile grounds for > violence and conflict.

Indeed. We have no shortage of reasons to bash one another over the head, but this one is surely one of the most prevalent. Diversity (of fundamental values and identity) breeds distrust, and distrust erodes social capital and institutions.*

What these doomsday articles don't discuss is what exactly the West collapses into? I mean, we're still going to be here among the ruins even if the pillars of society collapse. What then?

Perhaps we'll collapse _up_ , into a more equitable, fairer society.

* [http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/...](http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/)

</comment><comment><USER14> > Eventually, the working population crashes because the portion of wealth > allocated to them is not enough, followed by collapse of the elites due to > the absence of labour

I wonder how automation changes the balance here.

<comment><AUTHOR> Often the argument is made that automation = abundance which can resolve a lot of problems. However, this assumes that the abundance will be equally distributed, and that is not necessarily true in a capitalistic society (especially within the last decade with the top centile owning most of wealth and income). And if some of Piketty's arguments from Capital in the 21st century hold (particularly r > g), than wealth inequality will continue to increase.

However, inequality increasing itself is not a bad thing (in fact you need inequality for capitalism to work) if the overall quality of life for the bottom improves. If we can reach a point of diminishing marginal returns of just owning wealth (if it's true that people stop caring about collecting wealth once they have enough), than yes I think automation can help stop a collapse because working population won't care because they have enough wealth to be happy.

However, it is human tendency to base satisfaction and happiness RELATIVE to others (look at equity theory from management) so we may still end up in a situation where the quality of life for everyone has improved, but the working population still views that they're still inequal relative to the top (even though they're both better off) and we lead to instability. You can argue that has happened in our modern world today.

<comment><USER14> > However, it is human tendency to base satisfaction and happiness RELATIVE to > others

Yea I thought that historically inequality has lead to violent uprisings due to general resentment and anger, but the article seemed to imply that the elites collapse because they still implicitly need people to be willing to work for them, and that's less true with automation.

I wasn't thinking abundance at all. Frankly the term "collapse of the elites due to absence of labor" is pretty vague.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> This is the best summary of the debate about climate change I've seen -

Unfortunately, some experts believe such tough decisions exceed our political and psychological capabilities. "The world will not rise to the occasion of solving the climate problem during this century, simply because it is more expensive in the short term to solve the problem than it is to just keep acting as usual," says Jorgen Randers

</comment><comment> norea-armozel I have to wonder if in some part what happened during the Bronze Age is destined to happen again? I can see the US here going belly up if someone was inclined to test the US resolve to defend the likes of Saudi Arabia (considering its contribution to the world oil markets is non-trivial and probably not easily replaced). What I'm getting at with that hypothetical situation is that we're probably too interconnected now just like we were in the Bronze Age and with sustained disruptions to vital resources I can imagine things getting bad in a hurry. I just wish more folks would take this possibility more seriously and build redundancy and independence where it can minimize the inevitable disruptions of the future.

</comment><comment><USER16> Nothing new for those of us who've been well convinced progress isn't limitless, and some of whom might even have heard of Tainter. What _is_ new is that a fairly mainstream news outlet is actually addressing the issue. A longtime litany of complaint in the "doomer" "community" (grains of salt needed) is that there's no mainstream consensus about or attention to these predicaments at either a root level or a big-picture level.

</comment><comment><USER17> I think the gist of the article is that western styled democracy is always going to be more vastly more expensive & economically fragile than any authoritarian superpower that can simply threaten to kill it's own people or harvest their organs to boost GDP and serve it's elite.

It uses Syria to make case that climate change was responsible butterly effect:

> . Syria, for example, enjoyed exceptionally high fertility rates for a time, > which fueled rapid population growth. A severe drought in the late 2000s, > likely made worse by human-induced climate change, combined with groundwater > shortages to cripple agricultural production. That crisis left large numbers > of people – especially young men – unemployed, discontent and desperate. > Many flooded into urban centres, overwhelming limited resources and services > there. Pre-existing ethnic tensions increased, creating fertile grounds for > violence and conflict. On top of that, poor governance – including > neoliberal policies that eliminated water subsidies in the middle of the > drought – tipped the country into civil war in 2011 and sent it careening > toward collapse.

Which is shockingly accurate.

It makes parallel case for the rise of populism in US and EU becoming an increasingly less welcoming region as it faces the full pressure from collapsed countries in the middle east.

tl;dr: learn Mandarin or Russian because they are far more likely to survive a global economic collapse.

</comment><comment><USER18> Homer-Dixon's book is really good. Tainter's is a classic but it's not fun reading. Homer-Dixon explains Taiter's argument well enough.

</comment><comment><USER19> > Denial, including of the emerging prospect of societal collapse itself, will > be widespread, as will rejection of evidence-based fact.

I want to take this seriously, but I'm dubious of any argument that uses doubt of its veracity as evidence of its correctness.

</comment><comment><USER20> Wealth redistribution: a solution in search of a problem. The article does nothing to link this supposed solution to the world's problems; it merely asserts this dubious connection.

Of course the article shows its bias more clearly here:

> Whether in the US, UK or elsewhere, the more dissatisfied and afraid people > become, Homer-Dixon says, the more of a tendency they have to cling to their > in-group identity – whether religious, racial or national. Denial, including > of the emerging prospect of societal collapse itself, will be widespread, as > will rejection of evidence-based fact. If people admit that problems exist > at all, they will assign blame for those problems to everyone outside of > their in-group, building up resentment.

This is using a lot of loaded language to suggest that it's primarily the right guilty of these things, but identity politics is a mainstay of the left, at least in the US. Could it be that eliminating identity politics is more important than redistributing wealth?

<comment> norea-armozel It's easy to say wealth redistribution is a solution in search of a problem if you never lived in a city or town that's been slowly rotting away due to the negligence of the economic elites. I come from Wichita, Kansas and I can tell you that the last decade back home has been hell on everyone. I had to leave my home town for another state just to find work that wasn't just $12/hr (that's about as high as you can get without any college education back home) even for software development. You might think "oh but the standard of living in Kansas is cheap" for which I can prove that's not the case, especially for Wichita. In the long run, either the economic elites actually start investing in the consumers that made them wealthy or the consumers who can't pay for their services or goods will (not might) take their wealth from them by force.</comment></comment>


My magic response to "Hey, can I pick your brain?" - <AUTHOR> https://stackingthebricks.com//pick-your-brain/ <comment><USER2> [https://www.nealstephenson.com/why-i-am-a-bad- correspondent....](https://www.nealstephenson.com/why-i-am-a-bad- correspondent.html)

"There is little to nothing that I can offer readers above and beyond what appears in my published writings. It follows that I should devote all my efforts to writing more material for publication, rather than spending a few minutes here, a day there, answering e-mails or going to conferences."

And for the computer programmers: "Four quiet hours is a resource that I can put to good use. Two slabs of time, each two hours long, might add up to the same four hours, but are not nearly as productive as an unbroken four. If I know that I am going to be interrupted, I can't concentrate, and if I suspect that I might be interrupted, I can't do anything at all. Likewise, several consecutive days with four-hour time-slabs in them give me a stretch of time in which I can write a decent book chapter, but the same number of hours spread out across a few weeks, with interruptions in between them, are nearly useless."

" I am faced with a stark choice between being a bad correspondent and being a good novelist. I am trying to be a good novelist, and hoping that people will forgive me for being a bad correspondent."</comment>


Show HN: LMS – Lightweight Music server written in C++ - <AUTHOR> https://github.com/epoupon/lms <comment> git-pull Amazing. Requests:

\- Would prefer a permissive software license. Not much benefit to GPL. I've seen nice projects I'd have contributed / shared with where collaborative opportunity didn't happen. Too many obligations, sweeps in too many situations, and a lot of gray hairs explaining it being a net negative. I try to encourage a philosophy of YAGNI when doing open source licenses, sheerly for the sake of backward compatibility with licenses.

Don't you want your code / project to be inter-operable as possible, even with _other_ licenses? Do you want to make development contributions streamlined as possible (even from the parade of horribles, e.g. the corporation profiting from your work with no intention of reciprocal contribution? Why impede their success? It's not your loss), or do you want potential contributor's interest to derail into a cost-benefit analysis of running afoul of GPL terms until they find an alternative?

\- ncurses / ncmpcpp-like frontend. vim keybindings

\- directory-based navigation. easier to navigate around, supports file structures where id3 tags aren't in place yet

Questions:

\- Any info on the recommendation engine? How does it work?

\- Does musicbrainzId support include id3 tagging?

Congratulations again on the project!

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for you feedback!

About the software license, the web framework used (wt) is using the GPL license. So unfortunately I have to stick with it since I include/link with it. It is likely not a problem for SaaS though.

\- ncmpcpp-like frontend: what do you have in mind actually? I am not sure since the goal here is to play the music on the device from which you access to the server.

\- directory-based navigation: well I think that is a matter of taste. Personally I find the navigation directory based very restrictive. It does not scale well on a large collection and after all, it is just a fixed view of what you can offer using tag based browsing. Most people use a genre/artist/album layout, but using tags you could easily achieve the same, and go even further and do whatever you want: genre/decade/artist/album, mood/album, genre/mood/artist, etc. Honestly, I would rather encourage people to properly tag their files rather than spending time on implementing a clunky directory based navigation.

\- Any info on the recommendation engine? How does it work? Low-level Data is fetched from AcousticBrainz. See an exemple here for a random song: [https://acousticbrainz.org/e73f3d92-4e9f-4db4-943a-41978d9db...](https://acousticbrainz.org/e73f3d92-4e9f-4db4-943a-41978d9dbd72/low- level/view?n=0) Some features are extracted for each track (the exact list is here: [https://github.com/epoupon/lms/blob/develop/src/database/Sim...](https://github.com/epoupon/lms/blob/develop/src/database/SimilaritySettings.cpp#L37)) and all these features are used together to classify the tracks. You can find details here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self- organizing_map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organizing_map) . Once it is done, you get a map with all your tracks in it, and using the underlying SOM you can determine the neighbourhood of a given track. The recommendation engine uses this map. For example, if you want albums that are similar to a particular one, you look for the tracks of the album in the map and you retreive the albums of the tracks that are close to them.

\- Does musicbrainzId support include id3 tagging? id3 is a tag format used mainly in MP3. LMS reads all the tags using taglib. Therefore it can extract the tags (id3 or whatever) it needs internally (musicbrainz ids, artist, albumartist, date, etc.) as well as custom tags the administrator want too ( albummood, mood, albumgenre, grouping, etc.) Hope that helps!

<comment><AUTHOR> My bad I think I misunderstood your question about musicbrainzId. It is used internally : \- as a key for albums and artists to properly handle duplicated names. \- to retreive audio data analysis from AcousticBrainz

If you have musicbrainz identifiers in your file, it is assumed the other tags (artist, album, etc.) are correct and are directly used.

<comment> git-pull Thanks for this and the additional information above. Both answers were informative.

This is the first time I heard of AcousticBrainz and its sig ([https://acousticbrainz.org/e73f3d92-4e9f-4db4-943a-41978d9db...](https://acousticbrainz.org/e73f3d92-4e9f-4db4-943a-41978d9dbd72/low- level/view?n=0)). Nice! From the ones that brought us MusicBrainz right?

> what do you have in mind actually? I am not sure since the goal here is to > play the music on the device from which you access to the server.

ncmpcpp _is_ a music client, but for the mpd music server. Not sure if LMS <-> MPD do the same things. compare ncmpcpp to mpc, but w/ ncurses + c++. It has directory-based navigation which makes it easy to move through music.

Look forward to watching this project grow!

<comment><AUTHOR> Yes, actually MusicBrainz and AcousticBrainz are part of MetaBrainz (see [https://metabrainz.org/projects](https://metabrainz.org/projects)) There is even a ListenBrainz project :)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> Hello,

Please feel free to provide any feedback on this project.

I tried my best to make a README as complete as possible, but any remark/suggestion is welcome (English is not my native language).

<comment><USER2> Hey, it looks great! The Readme is really thorough, thanks.

What's been your rationale for building it, what does it better than the rest?

<comment><AUTHOR> Hey, thanks for your feedback!

That's a good question, I have to admit there are a lot of similar softwares available these days.

I noticed that I tend to always listen to the same music, and sadly I even forget the music I have. That's why I tried to put as many links as I can in the interface to easily jump from a title/release/artist/albumartist/genre/whatevercustomtag to another one. In particular, it should handle (custom) tags with multiple values, and it can filter over some of them on all views.

I also tried to make a recommendation engine that makes use of a SOM ([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self- organizing_map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-organizing_map)). For that it fetches data from AcousticBrainz ([https://acousticbrainz.org/](https://acousticbrainz.org/)) and makes clusters of songs that have similar audio characteristics. I have to say it's not perfect (it's quite good to cluster metal tracks though), but I would like to go deeper into this subject.

Apart from that, it is really lightweight and that was not really the case of the avalaible softwares when I started it.</comment></comment></comment>


Scala and Android Development - <AUTHOR> http://bostinnovation.com/2011/05/04/scala-and-android-development/

<comment><USER2> There are a few obstacles to easily using Scala on Android. Namely, the Scala standard library is too large to be easily "dexed" by the Android toolchain. Using Proguard or a similar treeshaker removes unused classes, but it's a bit of a hassle to set up manually.

However, I've found that using the SBT Android plugin (<https://github.com/jberkel/android-plugin>) makes the entire process relatively painless. I recommend starting with that approach.

<comment><USER3> I wrote a small tutorial on manually setting up Android with Scala:

<http://brianmckenna.org/blog/minimalist_android_scala_env>

Enabling ProGuard is done by adding the following to build.xml:

        <target name="-debug-obfuscation-check">
            <property name="proguard.enabled" value="true" />
            <path id="out.dex.jar.input.ref" />
        </target>

Also add "proguard.config=proguard.cfg" to default.properties and "-dontwarn" to proguard.cfg.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> "generally easier to understand"

"Ultimately, more Scala used means more modern Android development. "

The author has a clear chip on his/her shoulder and is making statements that are pretty controversial, even within the Scala community itself.

Thinking that using a certain language automatically leads to "more modern development" (whatever that means) is pretty ludicrous in itself.

If language advocates spent less time advocating and more time actually producing the cool stuff they claim that their language enables, they might actually get heard.

<comment><AUTHOR> well said, Joe - author of article

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> > Ultimately, more Scala used means more modern Android development. One would > assume that Google would have a vested interested in at least aiding the > Boston Android's project, but they have yet to send a representative to a > meet-up thus far.

I find this to be a pretty naive statement. I've never once thought of Scala on Android as being anywhere near official, and I don't see why Google would jump on the chance to officially support it. Now, having a Googler show up of their own volition - that's a different matter altogether. Maybe there just aren't any interested Googlers in the area?

</comment><comment><USER6> In fact, Mirah implementation also available: [https://github.com/sattvik/decafbot/tree/master/jvm- lang/mir...](https://github.com/sattvik/decafbot/tree/master/jvm- lang/mirah/src/decafbot/mirah)

</comment><comment><USER7> I'm excited to try Scala for Android development but haven't had the time to figure out a new build system, etc. I hope it'll eventually be integrated into Intellij IDEA.

<comment><USER8> In case you're interested....I've written a few articles detailing getting up and running with Scala+Android+IntelliJ. <http://bit.ly/msXMZN> <http://bit.ly/lIDHRs> and <http://bit.ly/kgiAqZ></comment></comment>


French comic book illustrates Hindutva's war on beef and its impact - <AUTHOR> http://scroll.in/magazine/844269/a-french-comic-book-uses-indias-war-on-beef-to-illustrate-the-dangers-of-hindutva <comment><USER2> Hmmm, Hindu Nationalism, but this article focuses on vigilantism over the killing of cows. I'm finding it hard to sympathise with the other side..</comment>


Enola Holmes sued due to giving Sherlock "copyrighted" emotions - <AUTHOR> https://news.avclub.com/netflix-might-be-in-legal-trouble-for-giving-sherlock-h-1844863748 <comment><USER3> The complaint reads:

"When Conan Doyle came back to Holmes in the Copyrighted Stories between 1923 and 1927, it was no longer enough that the Holmes character was the most brilliant rational and analytical mind. Holmes needed to be human. The character needed to develop human connection and empathy."

This seems surprising given:

"I fear that it is at a cost which will give pain to my friends, and especially, my dear Watson, to you."

         - The Final Problem (1894)

""My dear Watson," said the well-remembered voice, "I owe you a thousand apologies. I had no idea that you would be so affected."

         - The Empty House (1903)

"Upon my word, Watson!" said Holmes at last with an unsteady voice, "I owe you both my thanks and an apology. It was an unjustifiable experiment even for one's self, and doubly so for a friend. I am really very sorry.""You know," I answered with some emotion, for I have never seen so much of Holmes's heart before, "that it is my greatest joy and privilege to help you."

         - The Devil's Foot (1910)

</comment><comment><USER4> That headline and article view is really not quite getting the point.

The estate's argument is that the Sherlock character from the later stories is significantly different from the earlier one by the change in emotions. Which sounds kinda-sorta reasonable, though I'm not a legal expert and it doesn't seem clear-cut. Characters are, however, copyrightable.

</comment><comment><USER5> the Doyle estate argues that, while they admittedly lost the copyright to all of the Holmes stories written before 1923—i.e., most of them—into the public domain back in 2014, it's only in the latter stories that they still have the rights to that Doyle began to give Holmes recognizable human emotions. (A reaction, they argue, to Doyle wrestling with his grief over the loved ones he lost during World War I.) Said feelings—like, say, being worried about his (non-canonical) sister Enola—are thus a new element Doyle only introduced in those later stories, which makes them trademarked elements still controlled by the family

The fact that nonsense like this legally credible in one of those things where I feel the need to scream but do not have a legal mouth to scream with. It's strange how these rich people legacy estates can seem like such parasites. Looking forward to the Rowling estate attacking all of fantasy in the centuries to come.

</comment><comment><USER6> An interesting legal argument. The crux of this would be if the emotions on display were sufficiently similar - and idiosyncratic - to count as a derived work. Emotions are a human universal, so it probably doesn't fly to claim that _any_ emotions are inspired by Doyle's later Holmes work. Take, by analogy, eating; if Doyle had simply omitted to mention Holmes eating until a later work, I don't think it could be argued that _any_ depiction of him eating is derivative of that work. If on the other hand he had specifically made a point of describing Holmes as enjoying frankfurters, which he stashed in his pocket to be consumed while on the case, then this unusual behaviour could still be under copyright.

Since emotions are far more slippery than a frankfurter, this case - <USER2> likely weak - hinges on a point of literary interpretation.

Disclaimer: IANAL</comment>


Christopher Nolan returns '2001: A Space Odyssey' to its original glory - <AUTHOR> http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-ca-mn-christopher-nolan-2001-20180503-story.html <comment><USER2> I get the same feeling hearing 'emotional information' about the imperfections inherent in the film development process as I do about hearing 'warmth' in vinyl records. If you can produce a better print from using the negatives, great, but digitize it. Those negatives are only going to last so long. Add your warmth and emotion in After Effects.

</comment><comment><USER3> I love Nolan's movies and part of me geeks out about strapping Imax cameras to airplanes, but his attachment to film and theaters is so clearly putting him on the wrong side of history. Hopefully they'll do a 4K Blu-ray release of 2001 based on his restoration.

<comment><USER4> Seeing Interstellar and Dunkirk in 70mm IMAX were the two best moviegoing experiences of my life. The scale and detail of true 70mm IMAX film is totally unmatched by a mere 4K blu-ray. It is definitely not economical to shoot or project such film, and something that will sadly probably die out, but I am grateful he keeps doing it.</comment></comment>


Show HN: Hakaran – Hacker News Rankings - <AUTHOR> https://www.hakaran.com/ <comment><USER2> The ranking system is based on points; a given. But I would argue that a weighted rank(Comments + Points) is a better ranking system. More conversational threads indicate greater interest(not always, it could be one guy spamming). But if you can find a way to weigh the rank as to include comments; yet exclude abuse, your ranking system would be much more superior than HN's.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you for the feedback!;)</comment></comment>


Mozilla Debates Whether to Trust Chinese CA - <AUTHOR> http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/blog/felten/mozilla-debates-whether-trust-chinese-ca <comment><USER2> I certainly don't trust any CA that has even the _appearance_ of being tied to the Chinese government.

<comment><USER3> That CA is already included with Windows and Mac OSX. When you look at the list, it's quite impressive exactly how many root CA's are actually trusted. For example, the DOD is also trusted...

For what it's worth, it's not in the default ubuntu list, but you are using Firefox, it's in there...

<comment><USER4> Seriously, wtf? DoD managed to get a root CA in our browsers? Surely this should not be allowed by any sane corporation, and especially the Mozilla Foundation.

<comment><USER5> You would prefer that .mil sites were secured by Versign?

<comment><USER4> .mil can and should create their own Certificate Authority and install their own root cert on .mil computers. Just don't install their root cert on mine. I'm going to be checking mine now and removing DoD from there.

If any other government's military got a root cert installed, you better believe we'd be hearing about it.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> is there any kind of technical solution that would help flag abuse?

for example, something like the way ssh records and flags keys, so that you are warned if the certificate you have received, while validated, has changed from what you had received previously?

there would be false positives on expiry, but perhaps they could be flagged as such anyway.

would this help, or am i missing something? obviously it's only going to work if interception is the exception rather than the rule. and it only addresses eavesdropping - it doesn't do anything to stop china implementing some kind of firewall that refuses ssh connections for non-local certs, for example.

<comment><USER7> <http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~perspectives/> should detect and warn about SSL MITMs.

<comment><USER6> cute - same idea but replaces knowledge over time with knowledge over network paths. requires a lot more infrastructure, but removes the "first visit" vulnerability.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> That begs the question... if there is a CA on there I _do not_ trust, how do I remove it? In Chrome I'm having trouble _finding_ the list of root CAs.

<comment><USER9> Chrome uses the system certificate store. On Windows, that means it's the same one as IE, so you can probably Google for instructions. I'm not familiar with Mac. On Linux, it uses the system NSS library. NSS is built with a set of root CAs so you would have to see what your distribution chose to include.

<comment><USER10> OS X has "keychain" which can be viewed and modified from the Keychain Access app.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> >>To see why this is worrisome, [...] giving the Chinese government free run of the citizen's email archive.

It sounds a bit silly when you put it into words and read it.

<comment><USER12> My sarcasm meter might be broken, but in case you aren't: Yahoo 'helped jail China writer' (<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4221538.stm>)</comment></comment>


Jac Holzman - <AUTHOR> http://sivers.org/jac

<comment><USER2> This is great! I always thought he sounded like an interesting person.</comment>


Internet as a 'Hostile Overlay' - <AUTHOR> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwRVNwa6nJc#t=11m07s

<comment><AUTHOR> Steve Reeding, one of the creators of IPv6, shares his crucial insight on how some networks adapt, survive, and impose themselves:

"I have a different take on that. Yes, a lot of people were dissing tunnels yesterday. I'm actually a big fan of tunnels. I think the way the IPv4 Internet was built originally was basically by tunneling over the phone system. Ignore, you know, getting leased lines, putting computers on the end, building a network with no cooperation at all from the phone company. In fact, I once saw a phone company memo that referred to the Internet as a 'hostile overlay'. You know, and we basically, you know, demolished their billing plans and everything, and built this network in spite of the desires of the carriers. And, as I see the IPv4 Internet getting more and more like the phone company, I thought one way to deploy IPv6 is basically tunnel over all that junk. Iterate the same thing again. And I gather, you know, some people, you know, who are concerned about this are looking at other ways of sort evolving the Internet, where you, you know, tunnel over HTTP or whatever you have to do to basically get over all that cruft and build a new network on top of it. So that, to me, was one possible way, you know, as the IPv4 Internet rotted the underneath. We would tunnel over it and then we would throw away the rotted bits and replace them with wires."</comment>


Ask HN: If you were the Twitter hacker, what would you post and why? - <AUTHOR> <comment><AUTHOR> 1) If I was just trying to make money - some market manipulation experiment (most likely just Elon Musk since TSLA would be easier to hide activity)

2) Donation matching similar to this hack, but posting a collection of nonprofits around the world

3) Wanted to create chaos - some anti-China, anti-Trump, or anti-cancel culture tweet by popular figures

4) A message of unity - "Stand with humanity" or something with everyone simultaneously posting.</comment>


The Olympics' Never-Ending Struggle to Keep Track of Time - <AUTHOR> https://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/the-olympics-never-ending-struggle-to-keep-track-of-time <comment><USER2> Omega's advances, as well as the Olympic Broadcasting Service who provides all the live feeds and graphics, is absolutely astounding.</comment>


Concepts and workflows to listen to YouTube Music offline? - <AUTHOR> Dear all,
I would like to start a discussion on different concepts that community members use to gain offline access to YouTube content, particularly music.
I'm a heavy user of music found on YouTube because of its offered variety.
However, I would like to avoid to permanently stream the music online for two main reasons:
1. I need constant internet access which is not always a given (especially while traveling)
2. It consumes most likely less energy to play music offline than to stream it over and over again
Aside this background my question to the community:
What is your preferred workflow and method to have offline access to YouTube Music?
Thankfully,
Robert <comment><USER2> I guess you can subscribe to YouTube RED.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thank you! Seems to be a good option for US citizens.</comment></comment>


The First First-Person Shooter - <AUTHOR> http://www.polygon.com/features/2015/5/21/8627231/the-first-first-person-shooter <comment> mark-r This is one of those ideas that is totally obvious once the enabling technologies are in place.

I played a Star Trek themed game on a time-share system around 1975 or so. Unfortunately I can't pin it down exactly, and I don't know who wrote it. You were shown a map using an ASCII character grid, and there was a sensor display that would give you coordinates to objects of interest in your vicinity. You could shoot either phasers or photon torpedoes at any other player, and the damage they did was inversely proportional to the distance between you and the strength of their shields.

The winning strategy was to aim directly at someone, then accelerate and turn yourself 180 degrees, putting all power to the rear shields. Then get out your watch, and time to the second when you would pass them, and fire all you had at their back side once you passed them.

No graphical displays, this was done on a Teletype at 10 characters per second!

<comment><USER2> That's $SPACE or a descendant (maybe TREK73).

<comment> mark-r Neither of those names is familiar. This was on a Control Data machine if that helps.

<comment><USER3> If it was like a square map like this, it was trek :) It's the one I played in the olden days.

[https://ttygames.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/trek73.png](https://ttygames.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/trek73.png)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> Maybe I'm jaded but it's pretty refreshing to read about pure passion at work. Three guys put together in the same room hacking (in the _real_ sense of the word - going off message and pushing their machines) to produce a fun game that they could share with their friends. No expectations of business value or multimillion dollar exits - just pure fun.

</comment><comment><USER5> On this topic, I am always blown away by 3D monster maze for the ZX81 (16kb, Z80)

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_Monster_Maze](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_Monster_Maze)

<comment><USER6> And this what blew me away - I, Of The Mask (1985)

[http://www.worldofspectrum.org/infoseekid.cgi?id=0002433](http://www.worldofspectrum.org/infoseekid.cgi?id=0002433) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kueN2DMN0J4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kueN2DMN0J4)

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> I'm sorry, I don't enjoy using AdBlock, but I was forced to to even read this article. I've not seen ads like the Flash ad at the bottom of the screen before on Polygon, if it's an experiment it's been unsuccessful imo.

Combined with the gutters, it reduces the percentage of the screen that's actually content to something like ~25% and is not removable. I want to support authors and creators using whatever method they think is best, but if your content is rendered illegible I'm afraid I will avoid that.

My personal standards can only stretch so far before I'll just take what I want, and I imagine many consumers are similar. Please reconsider your ad format.

<comment><USER8> Which device / screen were you using to read this article?

On a 13" laptop with my browser window taking up 85-90% of my screen, the formatting seemed appropriate. The width of the text column is probably close to the edges of comfortable reading.

<comment><USER7> Macbook Air, I've revisited the page since making that comment and tried turning AdBlock back off.

It seems to be a problem with just a couple of adverts I was unfortunate to come across - they took up the bulk of the screen from the bottom, were fixed position, and they didn't have 'close' options. One was a public health campaign, don't remember the other one. Most of the adverts don't have this problem because no matter how large they are, they have some kind of close button.

I won't uninstall AdBlock, because I could quite easily imagine coming across the same sort of ad in future, but I'm keeping it paused at least for now.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> Its crazy how quickly computers preferred use was gaming. We are clearly hardwired for gaming.

<comment><USER10> Fun fact: Steve Jobs worked at Atari and Steve Wozniak worked on Breakout. Also, the ATARI 2600 was made available the same year as the Apple II, Commodore PET and TRS-80.

<comment><USER11> Fact with more fun in it: Jobs pretended to work, actually he subcontracted all of it to Wozniak for a fraction of the profits.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> We may also consider in this context Spacewar! 4.4 (1963) [http://www.masswerk.at/spacewar/4.4/](http://www.masswerk.at/spacewar/4.4/) – not using perspectives, but still first person (as would be seen on a PPI radar screen onboard of the respecitive spaceship).

<comment><USER13> That is an interesting way of looking at it. The terminology of things like "first person" and "third person" can be tricky in gaming. I wouldn't count Spacewar! as first person but if someone were to remake on a modern device so that the screen showed the Spacewar! playing field framed by a depiction of a spaceship cockpit then it might be? A first person representation of a representation of the battle?

<comment><USER12> I know, and I'm aware that this is somewhat controversial. I'm currently preparing a detailed write up including some theory. I would maintain that it's a subjective view of a planar universe that shares most, if not all properties and implications of a first-person position. To me, the problem in terms of terminology is that we've either to create a new class for this with just a single member, like "Ptolemaic multiplayer shooter", or we try to find the best fitting class that's already in use, even, if we might have to restrict the term somewhat.

(This is even more of a problem, as it predates anything alike by 10 years and it's therefor not part of a tradition.)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> Naturally, upon meeting someone in a maze the first feature one would want is the ability to shoot them.

Perhaps something about human nature is revealed by the history of the development of games.

<comment><USER15> People always bring this up as if it's got some huge insight into human nature but I disagree. The simple fact is that conflict engenders dynamic equilibria. It shifts a game from having exactly one right answer (why the original maze game got boring) into one in which you need to constantly adjust strategies in reaction to your opponent.

The pattern of something positive happening to you resulting in something negative happening to someone else is one of the most prevalent mechanics in game design. Shooting is simply one of the most literal instantiations of that.

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> Stuck in a redirect loop

<comment><USER17> I was getting the same thing, but it seems to be working now.

</comment></comment><comment><USER18> This was a great read, thanks for sharing.

</comment><comment><USER19> Has anyone who played the original tried the iOS version?

<comment><USER20> I didn't know there is one. What's the title?

</comment></comment><comment><USER21> so the first person was shot or not?</comment>


Counting Calories? Your Weight-Loss Plan May Be Outdated - <AUTHOR> http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/19/health/19brody.html <comment><USER2> I really wish the count calories, calories in = calories out, calorie is just a calorie mantra would just go away and die.

The idea that your body has no clue as to what type (fat, protein, carb) of you're eating is stupid.

I have advised nearly everyone in my family as well as lots of friends and colleagues to weight loss success with the following simple rules:

1\. Get rid of grains, legumes and sugars

2\. Eat healthy fats (coconut oil, lard, tallow grass-fed butters)

3\. Eat a decent amount of protein from meat sources.

4\. Lower your carbs overall (this is sort of automatic as you will not feel as hungry if you eat plenty of fats and protein)

5\. Eat to satiety

Also, you don't need to go for runs, or exercise to lose weight. It's great for your overall health, but if you are overweight and the thought of exercise is stopping you, then forget it and just change your diet.

As an aside, if anyone else wants further advice please feel free to ask.

edit: formatting

<comment><USER3> Nah, humans can thrive with eating a huge variety of foods. The atkins-type diets, as far as I've seen, are followed by panda-bear-shaped folks who maintain that panda-bear-shape no matter what.

If we really understood (as a society) what truly makes for a good diet, people would be getting slimmer and not fatter.

IMHO, the most sensible diet advice comes from Michael Pollan: "Eat real food. Not too much. Mostly plants."

<comment><USER2> Society doesn't understand thanks to the government pushing the food pyramid/plate down their throats and the low-fat diet crud.

Check out a cross-fit gym anywhere and see if you can find the pand-bear- shaped folks.

<comment><USER4> I would guess the lack of panda-bear folks at a cross-fit gym is not because cross-fit works, but because cross-fit culls the panda-bears very quickly.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> Keep in mind observational studies like this have a very hard time proving causation. Nothing in here sounds too far outside what I've seen documented in randomized control trials, but it's good to be aware of this. There's a great write up on this that's fascinating [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/magazine/16epidemiology-...](http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/16/magazine/16epidemiology-t.html?pagewanted=all)

</comment><comment><USER6> I found the actual study and the actual study says something quite a bit different. It says that counting calories works, but in an indirect way:

 _Some foods — vegetables, nuts, fruits, and whole grains — were associated with less weight gain when consumption was actually increased. Obviously, such foods provide calories and cannot violate thermodynamic laws. Their inverse associations with weight gain suggest that the increase in their consumption reduced the intake of other foods to a greater (caloric) extent, decreasing the overall amount of energy consumed._

Their view isn't that counting calories doesn't work because the science is wrong, but because you're less inclined to follow through due to satiety issues associated with foods. To put it another way, you can't have a bag of chips, and counterbalance it by having a yogurt before going to bed.

To me this reporting is sloppy.

A much more accurate headline would be, "Eating the right foods will help you stick to your calorie counting diet".

</comment><comment><USER6> This write up in the NYTimes simply was poorly done. With a title like "Counting Calories?" -- implying counting calories doesn't work, they don't actually dispell it at all.

Where's the data like, "People who eat fruits, veggies, and whole grains actually ate more calories, yet lost weight". And "among those who ate lots of french fries and potato chips, but yet fewer calories than others, gained the most weight."

Of course I believe those who eat a lot french fries gain a lot of weight. It's a calorie dense food. As are chips.

I'm not saying the title is inaccurate, but rather the article doesn't really substantiate it.

<comment><USER7> I don't think the claim is that something other than net calories are what regulates your body fat, but instead that trying to limit intake through calorie counting isn't the right way to do it.

That's what I took away, anyway.

<comment><USER6> But they don't show that. Not even by a country mile. My general impression is that the people in this study who lost weight probably ate fewer calories than those who didn't. The fact that they don't even give one sentence to dispute that statement is troubling.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> Two easy rules I've settled on for diet, mostly revolving around GI:

1\. Regularly add vinegar(any kind) to most meals, or drink it diluted in water. This dramatically lowers effective GI of carbs so overconsumption is more difficult. It also has some (complex, but mostly positive) effects on body acidity and digestion. Vinegar has been documented for its properties since ancient Greek times, so it's one of the most proven aids around.

2\. The _context_ in which things are consumed matters more than the _amount_. For this I mostly stick to a single rule: Meals should be either "carb meals" or "saturated fat" meals. Preferably neither, but never both.

Saturated fat acts to raise effective GI and this is the main source of the "badness" in meals like pizza, "super" burritos, burger+fries, macaroni+cheese, etc. But sausage and sauerkraut, or cheese in a green salad are relatively low-impact combinations, despite having a nominally high level of sat-fat. Similarly, even drinking a can of Coke(massive sugar-carb dose, the worst kind) can be OK once in a while, but if you have Coke with lard- soaked fries or full-fat ice cream you're signing up for the sick train.

There are tons of other contextual rules you can stack on for caffeine, gluten, the best types of fats, the best preparation methods, etc. but the sat-fat/carb one is the biggest bang-for-buck one I've found, and combining that with vinegar to mitigate the worst-case situations I can remain pretty flexible about what I'm eating.

<comment><USER9> I've also heard about this context rule, but what's the explanation or the scientific study?

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> Cut way back on refined carbs, esp. french fries and sugar. Cut back on red meat. I'm doing all that. I'm not losing weight, but my diabetes needs substantially less insulin. Peanut butter is helpful or at least neutral. Yea. Fruits and vegetables, very good. OK, I'm trying. Yogurt is good. Alas, beer bellies have bellies and winos are skinny.

<comment><USER2> get rid of the carbs and sugar, amp up the red meat and lose the peanut butter. Keep fruits on the lowish side, eat whatever vegetables you want.

<comment><USER4> Your advice is pretty fringe. Peanuts are great, so long as you're not eating Sugar With Some Peanuts Butter. If you're recommending he doesn't eat fruit due to diabetes, I'll defer to the Diabetes Association:

[http://www.diabetes.org/food-and-fitness/food/what-can-i- eat...](http://www.diabetes.org/food-and-fitness/food/what-can-i- eat/fruits.html)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> Why it's always about weight loss?

I've tried several apps from Android Market, and most of them (and, I'd say, all of them having an usable UI where I can actually try to count something) suggested me some sort of "low-carb" "healthy" recipes, even though my BMI is 17.6 (underweight).

</comment><comment><USER12> Huge success using the Hackers Diet (counting calories) here. Its online weight tracker is tops. Walker made the book available as an ePub earlier this year: perfect for the iPad.

<http://www.fourmilab.ch/hackdiet/>

</comment><comment><USER13> hmmmm . . . . does that mean I have to gain back the 50lbs I dropped counting calories with LoseIt?

</comment><comment><USER14> What exactly about this is news?</comment>


Ex-Google Engineer: Glitch Blocking Websites Could Have Revealed Mysterious List - <AUTHOR> https://www.mediaite.com/news/ex-google-engineer-says-glitch-blocking-websites-including-drudge-breitbart-could-have-revealed-a-mysterious-list/ <comment><USER2> I wish someone inside would leak this list so maybe this big tech's political bias and influence tactics would be on full display.

</comment><comment><USER3> This is absolutely appalling, and really needs traction - clear censorship of off-message websites by liberal tech employees with incredible power to control access to news.

I'm damn sure this wasn't a brief glitch either.</comment>


Markov Chain Text Generation - <AUTHOR> https://blog.demofox.org/2019/05/11/markov-chain-text-generation/ <comment><USER2> You can use Google search results as a Markov chain (with the ranks translated to probabilities). Then your chain is fitted to all of the visible web.

Another cool use for ML is for categorical and textual data. A fitted Markov Chain can give the probability of a string occuring. Strings that are more random (such as spammy text) get a low probability. Strings that are similar (such as certain user agents) get a similar probability, without having to directly compare these.

</comment><comment><USER3> Years ago I used Twitter streams as input for markov chain text generation. It's interesting to recognize your own writing style in what is essentially gibberish: [http://yes.thatcan.be/my/next/tweet](http://yes.thatcan.be/my/next/tweet)

<comment><USER4> really good work !! I had a great laugh reading generated text from Trump and Obama ^^

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> I did something simliar at university and (amongst other things) ran it over (simple) music scores in Lilypond format. The resulting texts could be converted to MIDI format and played by a synthesizer. It was quite interesting to listen to those. The code is still online at [https://github.com/mnagel/markov](https://github.com/mnagel/markov)

</comment><comment><USER6> Considering RNNs have completely taken over text generation with language models, are there any papers that comprehensively compare the power of RNN and Markov models?

<comment><USER7> In a sense, they're equivalent. RNN's create models of probabilistic state transitions. In other words, they create Markov chain models. You might argue that a Markov chain doesn't have memory, but it's easy to incorporate "memory" by expanding the definition of a "state" to include recent history or any function of the past.

<comment><USER8> No, they're not. And if it was "that easy" to incorporate memory RNNs would not have replaced Markov Chains

As an example try to build a character level Markov chain for text generation and see how that goes.

<comment><USER9> The point is that an RNN or other language model describes a stochastic process which can be seen as a Markov process with state space given by the internal state of the RNN. This doesn't say anything about the ease of implementing or learning such a model. Just that from a purely mathematical perspective, they are equivalent in power.

<comment><USER8> Ah I see, I agree with their equivalence in the mathematical sense.

<comment><USER10> Am curious about what other sense of 'equivalence' you had in mind when you stated with great authority that RNNs are not Markovian.

<comment><USER8> In the practical sense, implementing a RNN is easier than a Markov Chain (libraries, etc)

Also RNNs can "evolve" (or be adapted) more easily to other architectures like LSTMs.

<comment><USER11> If you try implementing a RNN from scratch with the same base as the OP N-order Markov Chain and without Numpy or a deep-learning frame work, I guarantee you that you will not find it so easy.

For reference his code his 400 lines and this is what he is importing:

        #include <stdio.h>
        #include <vector>
        #include <string>
        #include <unordered_map>
        #include <random>
        #include <algorithm>
        #include <array>

We can assume that <math.h> import is reasonable for comparison

To implement RNNs for text you need to implement tensors/ndarrays of 3 dimensions with slicint and all that jazz, efficient matrix multiplication, implement the RNN, implement the RNN backprop properly.

RNNs stands on the shoulder of giants.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> I have a Twitter bot that reads text from random Project Gutenberg books and spits out book passages: [https://twitter.com/markovian_lit](https://twitter.com/markovian_lit)

In general, it's a bit all over the place and convoluted, but sometimes it generates true gems. People find it via hashtags, and some folks even interact before realizing it's a silly bot.

</comment><comment><USER13> Theres /r/SubredditSimulator/ on Reddit which uses markov chains. Never fails to entertain me.

</comment><comment><USER14> Ask HN: Markov Chain book recommendations?

<comment><USER15> Bayesian reasoning and machine learning by Barber (2012) had nice introductory texts on most of the mechanisms at work iirc if you're looking for a lecture oriented resource.</comment></comment>


I Used Facebook to Buy a Gun - <AUTHOR> https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexkantrowitz/i-bought-an-ar-15-using-facebook?utm_term=.bqVDz6m9Er#.bd9AE1PGe0 <comment><USER2> Might as well point out the paragraph buried in the article:

> _And that's the thing: By and large people aren't selling guns illegally on > Facebook. This isn't a black market. The gun sales orchestrated on Facebook > appear to be aboveboard in the eyes of the law; they're just happening in > violation of Facebook policy._

tl,dr; reporter uses communication platform to conduct run-of-the-mill personal firearm sale.</comment>


Vietnam's Richest Man Bets $2B to Sell Cars to Americans - <AUTHOR> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-09/vietnam-s-richest-man-bets-2-billion-to-sell-cars-to-americans <comment><USER2> What always blows my mind is that Vietnam's richest man got rich making noodles in Ukraine[1].

Mivina instant noodles were a staple food for me as a kid. It was a very Ukrainian brand to me. I was telling my Vietnamese friend about these glorious noodles, and she told me "You know that it literally means 'Noodles From Vietnam' in Vietnamese, right?".

Turns out, Mivina is a brand of Phạm Nhật Vượng's, which grew out of his (not too successful) restaurant.

He grew the Mivina business instead, and eventually sold it to Nestle for $150M - and then 10X'd that with a resort/real estate business in Vietnam.

A pity he didn't stay in Kharkiv, I say.

[1][https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%E1%BA%A1m_Nh%E1%BA%ADt_V%C6...](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph%E1%BA%A1m_Nh%E1%BA%ADt_V%C6%B0%E1%BB%A3ng)

<comment><USER3> Moral of the story, know when to pivot.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> He has one advantage that past failed attempts didn't: electric cars are relatively simple compared to combustion engine cars.

But American consumers will want to see roughly 5 years of reliable quality reviews before they trust the brand. Problems with Yugos and early Hyundai's left a trail of memorable Internet memes.

So, what do you do the first 4 years? That's a lot of years to take a loss in order to gain market share.

Maybe start in the rental markets by loaning the cars out to rental shops. If they are loaned on a short-term basis, then the rental shops won't have to eat quality problems, if they appear.

One thing they have to know: if you foul up quality early, it takes a long time to recover that reputation. Detroit brands are still recovering from the clunkers they made in the 70's and 80's. They are now on par with the Japanese brands, but that's not good enough to get a clean reputation. Hyundai had to include generous extended warranties AND low prices to restore their reputation and market share.

<comment><USER5> Detroit never stopped churning out clunkers. My neighbors brand new, $50k Chevy truck's electrical is completely shot after first year. This is in mild Northern California weather.

<comment><USER6> Chevrolet ranks 25th in reliability out of 30 mass market vehicle brands.

[https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/11/14/consume...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2019/11/14/consumer- reports-auto-reliability-study-2020-vehicles/2578463001/)

<comment><USER7> It so bad, it's a running joke [1] I think low-end Fords (i.e. simple) are the only US car I'd consider and even then, their transmissions are suspect.

[1] [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSBsq6HBBzw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSBsq6HBBzw)

<comment> blaser-waffle Whole reason I bought a Ford Fiesta with a stick is because I heard that their transmissions are made out of glass.

Otherwise, decent car.

<comment><USER8> A FiST though :)))

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> At least the cars look quite good [https://www.vinfast.vn/themes/custom/vinfast/static/images/h...](https://www.vinfast.vn/themes/custom/vinfast/static/images/home/thumbnail-3.png)

There are 2.2 million+ Vietnamese Americans so maybe some of those will buy on principle.

<comment><USER10> Uh do they?

<comment><USER9> Well, eye of the beholder. I think they look ok.

<comment><USER4> They look nice to me, but my wife always tells me my judgement on fashion is an outlier (said using less pleasant words).

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> Even if this fails spectacularly, if he really spends $2bn it could have an effect globally on increased demand/manufacturing, and lower prices in $ per kWh for good quality lithium ion batteries.

I may be wrong on this, but as I recall, Vietnam's domestic auto industry exists because they have escalating high tariffs on foreign manufactured cars with certain engine sizes (eg: 35% tariff on foreign made 4 cyl 1.6 L, 40% or more on 2.4L and larger engines, 50% tariff on things with 3.5 to 5L engines). Similar to China.

<comment><USER12> It isn't just the size of the engine, but also type of car. When you get into the lambo territory, it is 300% markup.

That said, there is so much insane wealth in Vietnam now, it doesn't matter. You see them all over Saigon.

(I've lived in Vietnam going on 4 years now)

</comment></comment><comment><USER13> Currently EVs are not remotely price competitive with ICE cars. You can get a decent new ICE car for $15-20k. But even entry level EVs seem to be $35k+. Until new EVs reach the $20k price point, I do not anticipate them going mainstream. Perhaps a new entrant like VinFast will achieve this.

<comment><USER14> Average price of a new car in the US is ~$36,718. Some consumers are taking on 6,7,8 year auto loans to pay $50k-$80k for vehicles.

It is not necessary for EVs to reach the price point you mention for adoption to take off, considering much lower fuel costs (total cost ownership). I know someone putting almost 2500 miles/month on their Model S commuting. The math worked out immediately for them to dump their Chevy SUV.

<comment><USER11> > Some consumers are taking on 6,7,8 year auto loans to pay $50k-$80k for > vehicles

which is absolutely insane in my opinion, to have a shiny quickly depreciating status symbol. the amount of interest paid over the life of a 72-84 month loan is nuts. but people are short sighted and look at the monthly loan payment amount only. dealerships of course know this, and start naive people off in the negotiating with "how much do you want to pay a month?". they'll never show an amortization table.

<comment><USER15> What's wrong with taking an 8 year loan for an asset that you will possess and use every day of those 8 years? As long as the interest rate is good (less than 4%, say) it sounds like a prudent decision that frees up cash flow.

<comment><USER16> A car is not an asset, but a liability. It doesn't generate money, it costs money.

If your 8-year-car is going to make you substantially more money than a cheap car that maybe doesn't require you to take a loan, you have a point. But since cars are about to go from A to B and the status symbol itself doesn't pay for anything, a cheaper car would do.

<comment><USER17> Unless you consider the status utility worth paying for. Some people think it is. I think they're wrong, but who am I to say how they spend their money?

Why do people by expensive clothes that are no better than clothes a fraction of the cost?

<comment><USER14> There's evidence that people make decisions about others based on their clothing, even when directly informed not to during studies, so it appears there might be some utility in more expensive clothing.

The appearance of status might beget more status.

[http://wws.princeton.edu/news-and-events/news/item/split- sec...](http://wws.princeton.edu/news-and-events/news/item/split-second- clothes-make-man-more-competent-eyes-others)

[https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21751445](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21751445)

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER18> If anything, it seems like there are already too many automakers.

For various reason I believe FCA, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Ford are going to fail.

I can't imagine any upstart without any compelling unfair advantage/killer product is going to fair well in an imploding auto market.

If he started this endeavor 8-10 years ago, he'd have an advantage. Now nearly every car maker is either producing or on the verge of producing at least one EV model.

<comment><USER19> Swap Ford with GM and you're right on the money

<comment><USER20> I think you meant _add_ GM.

Of course, the US may sail in and prop those two up. Kind of a "Too political to fail" type thing. But on their own, absent help like that, yeah, I don't really see how they make it without some sort of market event. Failure, fire sale merger, etc.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER21> [https://outline.com/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...](https://outline.com/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-09/vietnam- s-richest-man-bets-2-billion-to-sell-cars-to-americans)

</comment><comment><USER22> Somewhat relevant:

>Bayerische Rundfunk reports that Ocean Lotus (also known as APT32), a hacking group associated with the government of Vietnam, has been detected in the networks of BMW and Hyundai. Engadget calls it cyberespionage.

</comment><comment><USER23> What differentiates 1 electric car manufacturer from another? Superior driving dynamics? Superior ride? Superior batteries? Superior motors?

<comment><USER24> What differentiates one ICE car manufacturer from another? Already they're using the same basic engine design (and often the same engine) between brands. With ICE cars it comes down to aesthetics, passenger features, and marketing. No different than EV makers.

<comment><USER25> Interiors and reliability

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER25> I got to wonder how well these guys understand the us market. Low end us consumer are so deep underwater in their old car that you would need to buy them out to even allow them to switch brands.

I think if you are breaking into the car market at the low end you have to offer a total lifestyle package. Maybe a very long term lease with full maintenance program package or some other Mechanism that allows people that have no spare cash to continue operating a vehicle for a long time and build a reputation for reliability. That being said the low end is kind of a trap because you get stuck as a low end brand (Hyundai) and in the USA you need a dealer network but a low end dealer won't be able to sell high end due to bad dealership environment.

<comment><USER26> US low end consumers lease 15 year old clunkers with GPS tracker from shadier one day late repossessing Buy here pay here outfits.

</comment></comment><comment><USER27> As a Vietnamese, if you care about the performance of the car. Think twice, maybe more.

</comment><comment><USER28> 1000 bucks. I will buy one

</comment><comment><USER29> Vietnamese billionaire? I thought Vietnam was a communist country?

<comment><USER30> [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam)

"Since the mid-1980s, through the Doi Moi reform period Vietnam has made a shift from a highly centralized command economy to a mixed economy that uses both directive and indicative planning through five-year plans."

<comment><USER31> Just like Romania? Or Cuba?

<comment><USER32> Romania has moved over from communism to a crime centric country - the culture and everything is dominated by it, so the only "billionaires" are dodgy people with a shady past. Went from communism to kleptocracy, rather than democracy.

<comment><USER31> We have a new government, same German president, and most "powerful" politican is in prison

<comment><USER32> I know, i am from the country. Came back after years of living abroad only to find a big fat deception, a culture of crime and corruption, cheap nationalism, conspiracy theories in every aspect of life, pseudo sciences, incompetence at all levels and lame "pride". Naturally there is a handful of great people but too few to make a difference. I for one cant wait to get out of here. Oh and that german president apparently has a criminal history of buying properties illegally (he apparently lost a case in this regard), but is better than the other candidate.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER33> Wow, this is a $2B mistake. Funny thing about very wealthy people, they think because they had success in one area that it will translate to success in another. Most likely their timing and luck were perfect early in their career. I don't think timing is on his side here.

<comment><USER34> Those are the exact same comments as people had on Tesla roughly 8 years back. There even was a whole website dedicated on the Tesla 'death clock', predicting when they would go bankrupt.

Only time will tell.

<comment><USER25> Jury is still out in Tesla, I suspect they will still go BK at some point and that's probably the best thing that could happen to the car imo. They could take the best stuff and shed some of the debt and musk issues

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER35> Communism at its best.</comment>


My Goals to Become a Web Developer and How I'm Gonna Get There - <AUTHOR> http://dannygarcia.me/2012/12/04/my-goals-to-become-a-web-developer/

<comment><USER2> Hey Danny, I know where you're coming from, I taught myself everything as well and its pretty difficult when you go that route (though personally, I think it makes you better since you learn a ton of stuff along the way you wouldn't otherwise have known). Admittedly I didn't start with web development it was mainly x86/C but I think a lot of problems overlap - I mean I still remember (had no internet then ) reading tons of man pages and looking through c header files trying to find error codes and why gcc was giving me such and such error. So I do feel your frustration :)

One thing though, I don't really see how blogging helps you? Otherwise, I think your ideas are great especially having a mentor or just friends who you can talk to about code and the like. Also an internship or just building complete projects will help tons as well.

best of luck in your endeveours.</comment>


Why startups shouldn't have to pay to pitch angel investors - <AUTHOR> http://calacanis.com/2009/10/09/why-startups-shouldnt-have-to-pay-to-pitch-angel-investors/ <comment><USER2> I think we already discussed that some time ago. Anyways, the biggest reason why you should not pay angels to let you pitch is that you want them to be thinking that if they do not make an investment, they are wasting their time.

You can never force an angel to like you, but if you have an angel that does not get any money from your pitch, it means that the only way he/she will make anything is if he/she invests. So they will be itching to invest with someone. Again, this will not make them invest unless they like you, but at least you know they are looking to give their money to someone.

If you start paying to pitch you may easily get into a situation where the "angels" are not really looking to invest at all.

</comment><comment><USER3> I've watched a lot of Jason C. and one thing is true, he is a "_brilliant_" salesman (I swear he is branding that word). But for him to step out and take on the old establishment really means something. He could easily concentrate on Mahalo and and not reach back and motivate the people working on startups.

It's so cliche, but he seems genuinely sincere in fighting for the the next generation of entrepreneurs. I'm behind him 100% on this, and can't wait to see where it goes.

<comment><USER4> _He could easily concentrate on Mahalo and and not reach back and motivate the people working on startups._

Or maybe he thinks Mahalo is not what it's cracked up to be and he is grooming himself to become an industry guru/consultant/visionary?

<comment><USER5> I think he genuinely interested in helping startups and giving his knowledge away, also in being well known, so that is part of the visionary bit you mention. He sometimes talks about himself in the third person as if he thinks everyone thinks of him as this visionary already.

I doubt he run Mahalo in long term, he will want to get it established and flip it in the next 5 years, if not sooner, and I've heard him mention on the show that he is envious of $100m buyouts for companies and he wants that for Mahalo.

I think he building connections for his next ventures and company. He is aware of a lot early stage companies, he can invest at very favorable rates and then give the company a much better chance of success by introducing it to key VCs that he knows - which could make some very good investments for himself.

<comment><USER6> actually, our goal is to get into the top 100 sites in the next year and the top 50 two years from now.

If we do that we'll have a really nice business, and to be honest I'm not interested in flipping this one. Like Evan Williams with Twitter, I'm long on this startup after having sold my last one quickly.

No regrets selling Weblogs, Inc. after only 18 months. In fact, it was an amazing deal that set me up to raise $20M to build something on the scale of About.com (top 20 site), eHow (top 30), Yahoo Answers (top 20) or perhaps even Wikipedia (top 10!).

I think we have a good chance to grow as large as About.com or eHow... getting to Wikipedia level, well, that's a little out of my control, but I'm going to try really hard.

In terms of being a VC I've thought about it, but for now I'm just going to do 2-4 small invetments (25-50k) a year. So far I've done two this year: www.challengepost.com and www.gdgt.com. Both of which are really great ideas with big potential. I love the entrepreneurs behind each of these... hopefully I can find a couple of these a year.

all the best, @jason

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> "PrivateEquityForums.com (stunnning $14,500 to $25,000 plus 3-5% of your raise to present!) We've received information that Mike Segal of Joshua Capital Partners runs this forum that is looking for up to $25,000 and/or 3-10% of how much you raise!"

Kudos for outing these "epic bastards" - IF it's true.. certainly hard to believe anyone that gullible hasn't already sent his $$ to the widow of a recently ousted African minister...

</comment><comment><USER6> Quick update: I've got a MAJOR smoking gunS from my investigation including a dozen or so folks who paid to present and who feel they were ripped off.

I've also got someone from inside on of the angel groups who has defected and has told me flat out that these are money making scams.

The Keiretsu Forum says they charge "only $1,500" but I'm told from insiders they make you pitch all four chapters... so it's really $6,000!

The best way to stop this is to a) not pitch at them, b) spread the word and c) for angel investors to boycott them.

I'm going to start an open angel forum if these guys don't drop their fees.

</comment><comment><USER8> These organizations thrive in those geographic areas where you don't have a critical mass of angel investors amongst whom you can syndicate a deal. It's really quite that simple.

Here in Chicago, DePaul University puts on an annual event that cost $80 to attend to "Meet the Angels". Too bad none of these "angels" actually do any deals, so it's a total sham. I'm sure they're laughing all the way to the bank.

<comment><USER9> I read about those events in the "College of Computers and Digital Media" (or whatever they are calling the CS department now) newsletter/mailings a while ago (after I relocated to SF), and thought it sounded like too good to be true. I think the main goal of it is to be marketing for the CS department like "if you attend here, look at the kind of access you'll have".

</comment></comment><comment><USER10> I think it's great Jason is working to eliminate this... but just to play devil's advocate here: TechCrunch50 essentially charged $3000 to present in the "DemoPit" by requiring purchase of a conference ticket...

 _edit: make that $1500, they give applicants 50% off_

<comment><USER11> I think that is different. A booth at a conference is marketing. It isn't fund raising. Getting in front pf a bunch of people interested in tech startups is about getting initial users and initial branding.

<comment><USER12> I thought lots of people who don't have booths pay for a ticket with the express purpose of networking. I didn't think you could get in without paying $1.5-$3k for a ticket? Maybe I'm wrong but that was the impression I had.

<comment><USER13> If you're one of the '50' you don't pay, and that's the pitching part of the conference, so it isn't hypocritical.

We were offered a free demopit ticket as the '51st' company as well.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER14> I'm disappointed to see Keiretsu on there - I've known a couple of angels recommended by people I trust who are involved in that organization.

Can anybody confirm Keiretsu does charge?

<comment><USER15> Yes, very expensive as well.

All of these angel groups are pretty much a total joke.

By the way, here is a very similar discussion on this topic a few months ago: <http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=782980>

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> apparently one of the angel forums is suing him for this... <http://twitter.com/Jason/status/4745489235>

</comment><comment><USER17> I'm going to advance a counter-argument (just because I'm like that). Jason makes the argument that these people are getting pitches from individuals who don't have a quality product or connections. I'd argue that's its almost always connections. That's what I experienced at digg, which was in general a second rate idea (it was done before by kuro5hin and delicious mostly) but was advanced by the ultimate insider. This is just simply creating a market, Jason feels threatened because while he may have come from the bottom, he's no longer there, and this is a direct threat to his (and every other insider's) influence.

I'm not a big fan of Ayn Rand, but there's a great passage in "Atlas Shrugged" about how once you destroy markets, it becomes all about influence and insiders and "who knows who." This is just a new market mechanism that subverts the insiderish nature of the angel community.

It doesn't mean it will work, but it's a reaction to scarcity controlled by influence, and is just creating a market mechanism where one is needed.

<comment><USER18> I don't see how digg is similar to kuro5hin or delicious - kuro5hin was about essays, delicious was primarily about serving personal needs (saving bookmarks) first. They seem very different to me. Digg also inspired a bunch of similar sites using the same mechanism (like Reddit and Hacker News) which suggests that digg had something genuinely new to offer.

<comment><USER5> I would note - if you didn't notice, that ojbyrne wrote the first version of Digg.

<comment><USER17> And the second, and large parts of the third, going by our own versioning. It was 3 years of my life.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER19> My opinion of Calacanis is very mixed, but on this I'm 100% with him. I really hope he does follow through. This has the potential to help far more startups than TC50 ever could.

</comment><comment><USER20> it's the old world meets the new world. Old world think that it's alright to pay for access, that it's alright to pay $300,000 to branding consults when you didn't even launch yet. The new world starts bitching when they are forced to pay $9.99/mo to use an app

</comment><comment><USER21> Jason seems to be one of the few established entrepreneurs reaching out to help startups. I think he only has positive ideas.

I'd like to see more of this - if you've made it then help others starting out. Surely there's a load of that type out there!?

</comment><comment><USER22> Having to pay to pitch anyone is ridiculous. Why not VCs/angels have to pay to pitch us?

Bottom line is, if you pay to pitch an investor, you are are identifying yourself as a desperate, naive, uninformed person, and possibly greedy person (read on). You will be fleeced, some might say you deserve to be fleeced.

These "pay to pitch" scams work on the same kind of people as those Nigerian email scams (or other "get rich quick" scams). The reason both of them exist is because there are enough twits out there that click or pay or whatever. And, so, the rest have to hear about it and get spammed by it.

<comment><USER23> Good parallel. After all, they are both "advance fee scams", i.e. "you give us some money and we'll give you more money later".

</comment></comment><comment><USER24> As a corporate attorney representing entrepreneurs, I generally agree in principle with Jason's position that it is "inappropriate and predatory" for angel groups to charge entrepreneurs fees to pitch them; however, I think it is important to distinguish among the different angel groups and their respective practices. Indeed, if (i) the fees are reasonable/de minimis and are adequately disclosed and (ii) the angel group is providing a legitimate service to entrepreneurs, there may be compelling reasons to support such a fee-based service. That's why I have strongly recommended in a recent blog post (see <http://bit.ly/hAYeu>) that Jason Calacanis and John Dilts (the founder and President of Maverick Angels, LLC and an attorney) meet face-to- face and have a live debate (in the great American tradition), which can be shown on the web to all interested parties via ustream. Many thanks.

</comment><comment><USER25> JC tells well that everything about start-up pitches aren't positive.

</comment><comment><USER26> If you pay to pitch you're a chump.

<comment><USER26> And I'm trying to figure out some way in which I will be down voted for this.

<comment><USER27> Because we really don't care about your bare opinion. It just raises the question: "Why do you think so?" and you should realize that and answer that question. If you have nothing to add to what has already been said on the subject, then don't say anything. Your comment is devoid of any value, with the possible exception of people that know you and value your opinion even without arguments. Which is questionable in itself. As far as I'm concerned, it deserves -4 to discourage such empty comments.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> I generally agree with Jason's sentiments.

However, given how Jason feels that startups should NEVER have to pay to be in a room full of investors... then why charge $1500 per ticket for Techcrunch?!

Surely all the budding entrepreneurs should get into Techcrunch for FREE!!!

After all that $1500 could go along way toward their start-up right?

but they chose to give it to Techcrunch in order to network (i.e, in the case of Techcrunch people see value in giving a large chunk of money to be in a room with lots of investors and well networked people)

<comment><USER5> I think the key thing is that 'investors' shouldn't get any of that money. If you have to pay an 'investor' to turn up it's likely they don't want to be there.

If you pay for TC50 you are paying for the conference room hire, network facilities, promotion and organizing which are expensive.

<comment><USER28> I'm not sure if they've ever claimed that its a not-for-profit event in the way you've described. Some of that money goes into the hands of the people organizing the event (who happen to be investors).

<comment><USER5> I'm not saying it's not for profit, it wouldn't exist if it was non-profit, and of course there is a risk that it could make a loss any given year.

If you are referring to Mike and Jason as investors, then I don't think either invest heavily in companies and I don't think they invest in TC50 companies. There are, I assume, investors at the event and watching the streams who do not get paid to watch and probably even pay to be part of the event. Those people are genuinely interested in making investments on their own merits.

An investor, as far as I am concerned, is interested in seeing the best companies and any barrier that stops them seeing companies, like paying, does not help.

I note that, Y Combinator even pays expenses to companies that come to pitch to them - that is the way it should be done.</comment></comment></comment></comment>


Security By Obscurity: a New Theory. [pdf] - <AUTHOR> http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1109/1109.5542v1.pdf

<comment><USER2> It would be useful to many of us to have the link to the abstract posted rather than (just) a direct link to the PDF. That way, we can get a brief overview before committing to the PDF.

<comment><AUTHOR> Here is it: [http://www.i-programmer.info/news/149-security/3132-security...](http://www.i-programmer.info/news/149-security/3132-security- by-obscurity-a-new-theory.html)</comment></comment>


List of cities by murder rate - <AUTHOR> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate

<comment><AUTHOR> Detroit and St. Lous seems to be the most dangerous city outsite Latin America and Africa. I guess cities like SF, NY, Boston and Seattle are completely different, but for us europeans this kind of numbers look nasty.</comment>


All Your IOPS Are Belong to Us: Case Study in Performance Optimization (2015) [pdf] - <AUTHOR> https://www.percona.com/live/mysql-conference-2015/sites/default/files/slides/all_your_iops_are_belong_to_usPLMCE2015.pdf <comment><USER2> Hi. I'm the author of that presentation, and I just got a text message from a friend saying that I'm on the front page of Hacker News...

The one thing in that talk that I was never 100% sure of was whether it was block-mq that provided the performance improvement. It wasn't until about a year later that I came across some articles which confirmed that that it was actually due to the development of, and subsequent fixes to, the Xen persistent-grants feature.

In other words, ignore slides 15 and 16. =/

<comment><USER3> Do you have updates on how the performance is on 4.x kernel versions?

<comment><USER2> Yes and no. I have all sorts of test results for the 4.x kernel, but they are for i3 instances rather than i2.*, so they wouldn't be directly comparable. Your question kind of makes me think I should put together an updated version of this talk; I've gathered enough material over the last couple of years that would probably be useful to somebody.

<comment><USER3> Yes, that would be useful. 4.x kernels has some block io improvements and some recent phoronix benchmark shows ext4 making huge strides.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><AUTHOR> Warning: this is from a 2015 talk, but I still found it interesting as it has shown me a very good way to approach the problems described in the early slides.

</comment><comment><USER4> I find this low-level optimization and performance tuning fascinating. Can anyone recommend any good resources to get started with solving these kinds of problems?

</comment><comment><USER5> If only there were an AWS service that existed purely for solving these exact problems so that your most technically talented employees could spend time working on your product instead of dicking around with linux kernel settings.

<comment><USER6> At the time of making this presentation AWS did not have anything in their offer that could match tuned MySQL on i2 instances. Aurora was just getting started.

But nowadays? I'm all in for Aurora.

<comment><USER5> According to OP, 800 IOPS was the bottleneck and i2 compute capacity was overkill. RDS offers provisioned IOPS (aka PIOPS) - up to at least 30000 at the time ([https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats- new/2014/10/09/amazon...](https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats- new/2014/10/09/amazon-rds-now-supports-general-purpose-ssd-storage/)).</comment></comment></comment>


Lyft is testing monthly subscriptions for riders - <AUTHOR> https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/15/lyft-is-testing-monthly-subscriptions-for-riders/ <comment><USER2> Given that I am planning to use Uber/Lyft for the commute - this seems great. My monthly parking costs are already $325 per month and given that my one-way commute using uber costs 20 - 25 this is what I need to stop driving.

So how do I get an invite for this ?</comment>


Ask HN: Solo founder but have a team of 4 people, Will YC accept? - <AUTHOR> I've been working on an idea and developing an MVP. I was never able to find someone with the same level of dedication and enthusiasm as me. So, I have hired ~4 people (sales, engineering) to help in areas where I'm myself not good. I've offered time-bound equity to these employees (Work for 'X' years with me and get 'Y'% equity).
I'm looking forward to applying to the next batch of YC. But, have heard it strongly insists upon having multiple co-founders.
What are the chances of my idea getting accepted in YC batch? I'll have a good enough team and MVP ready but not co-founders. <comment><USER2> Address a large or growing market, solve a big problem, show traction (or profits, preferably), have a team behind you and yc will fund you regardless of the number of founders.

</comment><comment><USER3> YC only deems somebody with at least 10% of equity as a founder (but hopefully that's not how YOU are defining your co-founders...).

YC has accepted single founder teams (I personally know a non-technical solo founder that went through YC) but it is very difficult.

</comment><comment><USER4> The 4 persons in the team are full time employees, partial time or freelancers? Are they getting paid in money too?

Do you have users/customers?

You can try contacting the YC team by email: firstname.lastname@example.com

</comment><comment><USER5> Relevant: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygr3qcERyRM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygr3qcERyRM)

</comment><comment><USER6> You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

YC has always recommended having cofounder(s) but that shouldn't hold you back. That is even if you didn't have a team of 4 people.

If I can remember correctly, Ryan Hoover from Product Hunt went through YC as a solo founder.

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaqUUAYi_Yo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaqUUAYi_Yo)</comment>


Ask HN: How do you deal with competition - <AUTHOR>

I have an idea. I know that millions do.
I'm willing to execute. That makes me a little different from the millions. I already started working on it, already spent some time and already see some results. That makes me quite different from the rest with the ideas.
But my problem is the competition.
There is competition, which is selling pretty much the same idea. I knew about it, but I always thought it's not good enough. It's not good enough for me and that's why I think I can make something better.
My question is if I this is enough. There's nothing that makes the idea unique. No extra feature, no additional value. Not in the idea. So should I refine the idea? Or maybe pick a different one? Or should focus on executing better? <comment><USER2> From your comment "it's not good enough for me" tells me that there most be some way of refining the idea so that it does become good enough for you.

As a first step, talk to people who use your competitor's product and see if it is "not good enough" for them as well. Then ask them if your refining idea would make it good enough for them. After you've talked to enough people you will have a more clear understanding of what needs/problems/frustrations your competitor is addressing and what needs/problems/frustrations your competitor is not addressing.

Then you can start implementing the solution for those needs.

</comment><comment><USER3> All of the above.</comment>


Deadweight Loss - <AUTHOR> http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/10/popularizing-deadweight-loss.html

<comment><USER2> This kind of ignores the fact that most taxes beyond income/property are actually there to modify behavior, not necessarily to generate revenue.

<comment><USER3> Really? What's sales tax there for?

<comment><USER4> Or the VAT

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> This is a good way of showing what deadweight loss is. Another way of explaining it could be anytime you have an economic loss with no gains elsewhere in the economy. For example: trade quotas and tariffs create deadweight loss in a economy because they transfer value from the consumers to the producers by raising prices.

Also, anytime you have a market where theres a monopoly, deadweight loss will typically occur.

</comment><comment><USER6> I don't get why we need ten line Q&A simplifications on hacker news, other than using theories for justifying opinions. Economic theory is already generalized and simplified enough as is. There's plenty of better source for information like this e.g. [http://www.google.se/search?tbs=bks:1&tbo=1&q=deadwe...](http://www.google.se/search?tbs=bks:1&tbo=1&q=deadweight+loss)

</comment><comment><USER7> It takes a heap of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun gap.

BTW, in the real world almost nothing is sold at marginal cost.

</comment><comment><USER8> You can of course decide to skip the bus ride, but what if the government taxes stuff you can't skip as easily? Like food, water or housing, or air to breathe?

<comment><USER9> You either pay the tax or you take the penalty for not taking the tax, in which case you lose pretty much everything and the government is now laying out money to incarcerate you. You can try to take a lower quality food or water but there's a limit on that too.

You can actually show that taxing is inefficient and inevitably (in practice) take more out of the economy than the government actually gets: [http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Price_Theory/PThy_Cha...](http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Price_Theory/PThy_Chapter_7/PThy_Chapter_7.html) though I mean this merely as an interesting fact, not a conclusion or an argument about "proper" taxation.

Taxing air is particularly pointless on Earth. It is however more interesting to consider the question of taxing air in a space environment where air is not free. Heinlein in particularly was known to play games with that concept.

<comment><USER10> Jerry Pournelle also spent some time on it in _Birth of Fire_. In most SF, though, it is not treated or only implicitly.</comment></comment></comment>