Why Carmaggedon never comes – Seattle edition - <AUTHOR> http://cityobservatory.org/seattle_carmaggedon/ <comment><USER2> This article provides weak arguments and no data to back up its claims. The reason "total gridlock" hasn't happened is as simple as the city, businesses, and individuals enacting different timings/routes/operations to avoid issues. Both people and businesses are taking on those pains with the knowledge that these inconveniences are temporary, and that they can return to their normal way of life in a few weeks.

Just to provide one example, the Port of Seattle is opening freight activity at 5am instead of the usual 7am ([https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/tunnel- effect/how-t...](https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/tunnel-effect/how- the-port-of-seattle-is-preparing-for-the-viaduct- closure/281-a61f4120-cac4-41b5-9681-4926cb8a5b6a)). Some terminals are opening 3 hours early ([https://mynorthwest.com/1231341/port-of-seattle-viaduct- clos...](https://mynorthwest.com/1231341/port-of-seattle-viaduct-closure/)).

Other things are in place temporarily as well - for example ferries that don't service commuter routes are temporarily operating as water taxis. There are extra temporary park and ride lots set up in some locations. And on a personal level, I have time-shifted and even cancelled some of my activities and trips to minimize the time I spend in otherwise worse traffic.

There is a cost to adapting to these circumstances - reduced quality of life, increased inconveniences, etc. Just because it is hard to measure doesn't mean it isn't happening. Frankly, assuming otherwise and boldly making claims that roads are unnecessary seems incompetent or purposefully biased.

<comment><USER3> > The reason "total gridlock" hasn't happened is as simple as the city, > businesses, and individuals enacting different timings/routes/operations to > avoid issues.

This is the claim of the article.

<comment><USER4> Yes, but as OP mentions, the article totally discounts any negative affects to QOL.

<comment><USER5> Explaining how changes to transportation patterns effect quality of life in general was way outside the scope of the article. It's claim was limited and it argued it well: road closures don't necessarily cause traffic congestion. It's unclear if to me if less automobile throughput is a net positive or negative to quality of life, but that's a separate discussion.

<comment><USER6> I don't think it is a separate discussion. King County's transportation district is extremely poorly run and cost overages are in the billions. The governing body is appointed and accountable to no one.

If people were given a realistic estimate of the costs, both financial and quality of life, I think there would have been a drastically different outcome.

<comment><USER7> Which "transportation district" do you mean?

All of them I know of are run by people who have to stand for election so they are accountable to the voters who put them there.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> City Observatory is a publication that lobbies for urbanism. So you have to take that into context when considering their argument.

Their argument is not that removing roads doesn't reduce quality of life – their argument is that cities _adapt_ and that tearing away infrastructure for cars in favor of housing and "human-scale" neighborhoods won't necessarily result in doom and gloom.

Of course removing a highway will result in some temporary issues. But cities are living organisms and they can adapt. America is after all a free-market economy. If a road trip to a faraway store becomes inconvenient, a new store will open in due time. If it becomes impractical to drive around, neighborhoods will reconfigure to serve customers within walking distance. And if a hypothetical highway closing permanently were to cause single-car commutes to become impractical, companies will respond by moving offices, encouraging telework, and subsidizing public transit commutes.

We all think we need our cars, but somehow the majority of commuters in cities outside the United States manages to commute via public transit just fine.

<comment><USER9> This is basically the Invisible Hand, and I don't see it. Seattle (at least anywhere within 30 minutes of downtown) is being taken over by tech workers making huge salaries. They're building condos, not stores. The stores that are being built are high-revenue specialty stores, like cannabis.

When transportation becomes impractical, it first becomes impractical from the bottom (like artists and service workers) -- the rich will always find a way, whether it's paying hundreds of dollars a month (no exaggeration) for parking, or using delivery services for every meal.

This isn't causing grocery stores to be built and public transit to be improved. It's pushing everyone making less than $100K to pack up and move 30 miles away. High-paid tech workers often get subsidized transit, but most other jobs do not.

Seattle is turning into Manhattan, only without any of the services (everything shuts down at night!) that allow Manhattan to work. Even apart from the temporary 99 closure, this is not sustainable.

<comment><USER10> It's illegal to build multi-family housing in 95% of Seattle's residential area; that's not a very invisible hand.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> Possibly, but I don't believe that the 99 closure is a good test of this.

\- We know it's only temporary, and we knew about it ahead of time. It can be easy to put off many types of errands, or work from home (lots of tech workers here), for a little while. That doesn't mean it's sustainable.

\- They've upped the water taxi routes for the closure (but not buses, AFAICT?), and they're taking hundreds more passengers per day. That's not going to last. Adding more public transit options permanently would be fantastic, but apparently that's not a sustainable option, either.

\- A lot of commutes are being time-shifted. The rule of thumb I've been hearing is "Double your normal transportation time". That's a significant cost. I know of people leaving home early, and then sitting in the parking lot because their workplace isn't even open yet. There's a huge number of person- hours being wasted just to deal with this added constraint.

\- I seem to recall hearing that the vehicle accident rate was up this week. Based on the wrecks I've seen and the sirens I've heard (I'm hearing some right now), I believe it.

\- The Google traffic map only shows speeds down to "Slow" ("stop and go", claims this article), but that still covers a wide spectrum. There's 3-block section near me that Google says is orange-to-red on a typical weekday at 4-6pm, but I avoid it entirely because it literally takes 45 minutes to drive down those 3 blocks. (Personally, I'd call that "gridlock".) Google Traffic is probably designed to tell you what regions to avoid as a driver, not as a statistical analysis of traffic volume.

What other real-world costs are not visible on a simple color-coded traffic map?

<comment><USER11> > There's 3-block section near me that Google says is orange-to-red on a > typical weekday at 4-6pm, but I avoid it entirely because it literally takes > 45 minutes to drive down those 3 blocks.

Howell St towards I-5? Basically impossible. Everyone zips down Boren from Capitol Hill and jumps in front of the line.

</comment></comment><comment><USER12> Yes, people can adapt to having less mobility. That doesn't mean mobility is useless or that removing it is without harm.

People deciding to stay home because getting around is too much hassle isn't a victory condition.

<comment><USER13> The real question is not about whether mobility is valuable or not, it is about how valuable it is. When it comes to infrastructure development, we throw tons of other people's money at the problem, but if drivers were paying their full costs via gas taxes and congestion charges, how much demand would there be? This article suggests that driving demand is a lot more elastic than we like to claim.

<comment><USER12> Can't you make this argument against any public service?

We throw a bunch of other people's money at K12. I suspect most families would buy fewer years of schooling if they paid the true cost.

We throw a bunch of other people's money at the military. If people had to pay the true cost of America's autonomy, they'd suck it up and learn Russian.

The compelling cost argument, IMO, is that a subway system could offer more mobility at the same price point.

<comment><USER13> Yes, you can make that argument against any public service. And it is worth discussing for any public service. All public services have benefits, and all of them are capable of being overprovisioned.

In the context of schools, literally everybody benefits from population wide literacy and education. The benefits are diffuse enough that it is worth subsidizing...although we're probably hitting diminishing returns on the amount that we do spend. And the idea that we need to learn russian if we don't have a military 10x bigger than the rest of the world is a cold war rhetorical relic. Of course we could do with less military funding.

Cars though, are mostly a benefit to the occupant, and either a detriment to everybody around them, or entirely capable of being priced into the benefit of the goods they buy. Yes, I can afford paying $0.0025 more for a pound of apples if it means the trucking company pays their true costs. And why should we subsidize your drive in a BMW to your office when you can easily pay for the whole cost yourself, or take transit? Why should we be subsidizing cars over the much more efficient alternatives?

Cars and transit are competing forms of transportation...a vehicle mile not traveled is very often a fare paid. Car costs scale linearly with the number of people-miles driven, until congestion and space constraints hit and then costs scale exponentially. Transit costs are step fixed costs, and therefore the more riders the less they cost per person. When we subsidize car travel, it forces us to subsidize transit travel even more, because taking away riders makes transit less efficient. It should be remembered that before we started price capping transit companies and subsidizing roads, transit was one of the most profitable industries in the world. That's the power of the cost efficiency of transit.

So yes, mobility is important and roads shouldn't just go away, but the _amount_ of roads and car infrastructure that we fund through general taxes is absolutely obscene and should be scaled back dramatically. Mobility can be much more efficiently provisioned to the public with transit.

<comment><USER14> > In the context of schools, literally everybody benefits from population wide > literacy and education.

Education is more of a private good than you seem to realize. It is definitely excludable and in traditional settings it is quickly becomes rival past small groups of similarly motivated people.

Self learning is not rival, i.e. my learning of something does not prevent you from being able to learn it, but then that cannot be used to justify government provision of education.

Once one learns something, it becomes part of one's human capital and one cannot be separated from it. Hence the difference between loans for college versus mortgages.

Now, in this case, people are finding out that roads are not very public goods either (even though government entities have take over provision). First, roads are excludable. Second, they tend to also be very rival when they are most needed. The reduction in capacity highlighted their nature of quickly becoming rival.

Finally, if it people actually benefited from all the time-shifting, taking ferries instead of driving, leaving home at 5 am and sleeping in the parking lot waiting for the office to open, they all had that option _before_ the construction began. Ergo, people are made worse off by the change no matter how they are adapting.

<comment><USER15> In a society where most of the people are barely able to read, an advanced degree isn't worth that much compared to a highly industrialized society.

<comment><USER14> Why are most people barely able to read in such a society? Do you think if there is net return to being literate, people would not be able to learn without government?

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER16> > If Seattle can survive for a couple of weeks without a major chunk of its > freeway system, that's a powerful indication that more modest steps to alter > road capacity don't really mean the end of the world.

That leaves out the fact that this is a three-week window that people know is temporary and have time to plan for.

After the new year everyone goes to the gym and eats better. But nobody would think of saying "if this continues until February, that's a powerful indication that obesity will soon come to an end."

<comment><USER6> I thought you were being obtuse when you used the phrase "a couple of weeks" but you read the article correctly:

> In a few weeks, much of this capacity will be replaced by a new 3 billion > dollar highway tunnel under downtown Seattle

It's worded wrong. That tunnel won't be functional for years.

<comment><USER16> What do you mean? The tunnel opens next month: [https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/tolling/sr-99-tunnel- tolling](https://www.wsdot.wa.gov/tolling/sr-99-tunnel-tolling)

<comment><USER6> What I mean is... I'm an idiot and need more sleep. Thanks for the correction.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER17> I believe this is just another example of a well-known rule of thumb, which is that people will adjust their commute until it's just barely tolerable. In a short term disruption like this, they probably put off any trip which can be postponed for a few weeks. I wonder whether visits to downtown locations like museums are down, for example.

In longer term situations, people move where they live, or change jobs, until their commute is just barely tolerable. Moving away from the core gets you more space for the same money, working near the core often is required to get your best salary, so the compromise results in a perpetual state of annoyance- but-not-catastrophe.

</comment><comment><USER18> I am honestly puzzled by all the comments about reduced quality of life. It sounds completely alien to me, as if I live on a different planet. I literally don't understand what you guys are talking about. The place where I live everything - shops, kid's school, entertainment and recreation - is less than 10min cycling away. Work commute is less than 1hour by train in a comfortable seat with wi-fi or a book. I do own a car but I don't depend on it for my QOL.

<comment><USER9> Easy: just imagine your life without a train. Replace it with "standing-room only bus (no wifi), and 2 transfers each way". Or "stuck in traffic". Still seem great?

Rail is expanding in Seattle but it's slow going. West Seattle is planned for 2030, and Ballard for 2035. You don't build a rail system overnight, especially when you've got hills and oceans and lakes and existing development to contend with.

We're the fastest growing large city in America -- population is up 20% this decade. (500K to 600K took 50 years. 600K to 700K took only 7.) That's a _lot_ of extra bodies to transport. Any city would struggle a bit with that.

<comment><USER19> It doesn't help that public transport is okay by American standards, i.e. appalling. And that because of congestion, walking and cycling are so dangerous. Police have even stopped ticketing people blocking crossings because it happens too frequently (which is the wrong thing to do). Which means the alternatives are even less appealing, which means more people drive, etc.

Of course, nothing will change as the rich people still want to drive, no matter how much they pretend to support public/alternative transport in a bid to look progressive.

<comment><USER10> The situation is worse than that; public transport in Seattle is excellent by American standards. Which is still crap.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER20> > If Seattle can survive for a couple of weeks without a major chunk of its > freeway system, that's a powerful indication that more modest steps to alter > road capacity don't really mean the end of the world.

It's a little bit of a stretch. The problems people are facing due to road closures are not measured by images of Google maps. Just because complete gridlock doesn't happen doesn't mean that people aren't having significant problems because of it. People adapt but this article provides no real way to measure the cost.

<comment><USER21> The point of this article is that people say "complete gridlock will happen", and it doesn't. (Not even close)

<comment><USER22> The only things I've seen that causes complete gridlock in Seattle were a freak snowstorm/ice at 3pm, a butane truck closing i5 and major arteries downtown and Obama. And Obama wasn't that bad most of the time. But those were literally no one can move anywhere nor can people reparj and stop. This is know and plannable.

Seattle has a remarkable amount of work hour flexibility in the short term. They closed 90 a few years back for a week, asked 50k to stay home and iirc got around 110k who did.

<comment><USER23> Obama made me late to work twice in a two month time period, I found this amusing at the time, and still do.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER24> Seattle is a bad example because it's always had peak congestion since 1978. It's just been bumping along for forty years at peak congestion.

<comment><USER25> Yeah, a more accurate description would be "Seattle won't notice the freeway destruction, because they've been living in constant Carmaggedon for the past 20+ years anyway"

Seattle folks are so anti-infrastructure, the commutes people have to endure there insane. Especially given how short a distance they cover.

</comment></comment><comment><USER26> I wonder if the panic helps prevent the congestion. They said people avoid the closed areas, but they wouldn't avoid them if they didn't already know about them.

Panic would cause awareness to skyrocket, motivating people to prevent the thing they were panicking about.

Perhaps the system is working exactly as it should.

</comment><comment><USER27> I don't think we should underestimate the lost value these transportation arteries normally provide, but we also shouldn't overestimate it.

I often wonder why new highways / lanes of highway don't get assessed in economic terms, but I suspect much of the day-to-day work would not be justifiable in such terms.

<comment><USER28> > I often wonder why new highways / lanes of highway don't get assessed in > economic terms, but I suspect much of the day-to-day work would not be > justifiable in such terms.

This is so frustrating. It feels like debate around a mile of bus lanes or rail can drag on forever, but spending billions of dollars on highways just _happens_.

</comment></comment><comment><USER22> If you look at the only expected traffic problem area, i5 at 90, it's much worse the gridlock is a black and deep red and stretches red a good 3/4 of a mile north and south in the right hand picture. The evening one looks horiffic knowing those maps well like I expect a major pile up to cause a map like that. I was out of town this week but looking at that chart I'm figuring out how I want to time shift Monday given how bad it looks.

</comment><comment><USER29> Came for news of a delayed version of a cherished classic game. Severely disappointed.

</comment><comment><USER30> Traffic is induced demand. Traffic is induced demand. Traffic is induced demand.

<comment><USER2> This whole notion of "induced demand" seems like a suspicious artificial label used to position roads as a negative. The reality is that roads provide something people want - the ability to get around quickly, on one's own terms, without dealing with waiting times or trip planning, and without some of the unsavory experiences that can sour public transit (e.g. [https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/BART-takeover- robbery-5...](https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/BART-takeover- robbery-50-to-60-teens-swarm-11094745.php)).

Building roads doesn't "induce" demand. Rather, it _fulfills_ demand. There is a limit to that demand - it's not like supplying infinitely more of something would infinitely scale the associated behavior. There are only so many humans and only so many trips they are willing to make in a day. And an area that is 100% roads obviously would not have any destinations worth traveling to (leaving aside edge cases like race tracks).

<comment><USER31> It sounds like you're caught up on the terminology, do you disagree with the underlying concept?

[https://www.ibtta.org/sites/default/files/Generated%20Traffi...](https://www.ibtta.org/sites/default/files/Generated%20Traffic%20and%20Induced%20Travel.pdf)

Coming from a chemistry background, the idea of traffic and travel choices being an equilibrium process is a very natural and easy concept to grok.

<comment><USER32> Equilibrium is traffic jams. What we want is for roads to be underutilized, because 100% utilization is a synonym for gridlock. A saturated solution, in chemical terms.

I like the term "latent demand" more, because "induced" sounds like demand was suddenly created, whereas "latent" implies it's already there, but can't be fulfilled just yet. A saturated solution with more soluble material waiting at the bottom of the flask. If you add a drop of solvent, a little bit of material from the bottom will dissolve - just like if you add another road, you'd only eat into the latent demand.

But the fix to this problem isn't "don't build new roads because induced demand". It's "build _even more_ roads", up until you eat up all that demand, in the same way you could add more and more solvent until you dissolve all the remaining material, and then some more, to keep the solution unsaturated.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER33> Well, make people live not too far from their workplaces, schools, shopping, and recreational facilities.

That's this stupid simple. I'd guess 80% of American gridlock is due to that not being done.

<comment><USER6> So, ah, who decides how to "make people live not too far from their workplaces, schools, shopping, and recreational facilities.", who enforces the law, and does anyone get grandfathered in?

<comment><USER33> Normally, urban development follows common sense without much aid from central planning.

What you see in US cities, is that central planning itself stands in way of common sense; that car centric lifestyle in USA was pretty much enforced from above.

Take a look on city plans from sixties, or watch some documentaries about that time</comment></comment></comment>


Ask HN: What was your severance package, if you recieved one? - <AUTHOR> Curious as to what's the range of severance packages within our industry.<p>I've been at my company (public) for 2+ years now and wonder what is acceptable as we're negotiating separation. <comment><USER2> It depends on what the company is asking for in exchange for the severance and at what level you are at in the company. Assuming you have been there for say 3 years.

If you started as an entry level or new grad developer, than 1-3 months is pretty common, and fair. If you were mid-level 3-5 years experience, than 1-4 months is not unreasonable depending on the reason for split. But remember, if they are terminating you for a specific cause they may give you zero to 2 weeks.

If you are senior or held one or more critical rolls during your time, than it is not unlikely they ask for some additional non-compete time or non- disclosure time, especially if you were privy to current R&D or other key company details. For that, they need to pay, and it should be reasonable to the time period they are requesting. That doesn't mean they'll pay you for 2 years, but I would be more likely to ask a professional compensation consultant or employment attorney for advice in this case if I wasn't sure. Remember, if you are being let go, the company's attorney or a fairly senior level HR person has been consulted so no harm in you getting advice too.

While generally not an issue in the engineering space, acceptance of a severance package in the U.S. (IANAL so double check your specific state) will prevent you from attaining unemployment benefits from the state. Again, fairly uncommon in engineering type roles as people are really mobile. However, I have had to let go of some people outside of engineering roles that took a severance and then filed for unemployment months later. They were quite upset when we challenged it and they were denied unemployment benefits. One of the primary reasons you are getting severance is to prevent the company's unemployment costs from rising.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks for the response man. In my situation it's actually mutual separation since they gave me shady treatment, borderline discrimination.

What would your ballpark be for that? Not sure how much to negotiate for. I have more than a decade of experience, albeit not a manager.

<comment><USER3> Well, if they realize that they gave you shady treatment, that gives you more leverage.

On the other hand, you don't want to push that too far. Don't burn bridges with any of the people involved by how you handle this.

As far as concrete estimates of what to ask for - I don't know.

<comment><AUTHOR> The people kind of already burned the bridge with me themselves, but what can you do. I was thinking 6 months severance and COBRA, since it'll take me time to recover from this. But I wasn't sure if that's ludicrous compared to the market.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> This is from medium sized US software company. As per standard employment contract, 1 week pay per year worked. It was more generous for managers, but that was the company being generous, not anything that was in the employment contract. It's not a company most people have heard of.

Oddly enough, later in the year they made this incredibly stupid decision where they hired a lot of people and fired all them during the orientation week. Apparently those people got a really good severance package.

<comment><USER5> I expect that part of the severance was agreeing not to participate in a class-action lawsuit...

<comment><AUTHOR> You think the person that hired them is still there?

<comment><USER4> With exception of one person (who left for a better job, not because they were fired), the executive management that enabled that stupid decision is still there. The people that did the actual hiring are mostly gone, but they were just pawns in that situation.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER6> At one job I received 2 months, at another job it was just 2 weeks.

I read that it is common to get a month for every year you are employed with the company. I don't know if this actually works out for anyone. It never has me.

<comment><AUTHOR> what was the 2 months one? US?

<comment><USER6> 2 months was for a database tech company.

2 weeks was for a university job.

Yup, U.S.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> My 2 data points, both after 2-3 years of working there:

At a multi-national, had to sign a NDA, 1/4 my annual salary.

At a smallish consultancy (it went bankrupt) 2 weeks pay six months later from the liquidators.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks. In the first data point, do you mean you've received a lump sum? Was this in the US?

<comment><USER8> You would get a lump sum that's taxed at 40%. Otherwise you can try to negotiate to be on the payroll for 4months + healthcare. Also if in the US ask for medical (COBRA) to be paid for.

<comment><AUTHOR> Yeah my thinking is staying on payroll is better. I wanted COBRA too - I heard some places just 'reimburse' you.. All I want is to have my healthcare premiums paid. Did you ever get that?

<comment><USER8> Nope I never have. But the best time is to negotiate for it is when you're hired. They are more likely to agree since they've already decided to hire you. At separation, they've already decided they don't want you so the only reason to offer it (besides being nice and humane) is b/c they'd be afraid of a lawsuit. Execs, VPs and some directors negotiate this in their hiring contracts as well. They call these golden parachutes. Some of the bigger companies have this stuff in their company handbook. This is what you might get by default e.g. 1 month for every year of employment etc... but it depends on the company.

The problem is that most people think, hey I'm a hard worker and I'll never get laid off, so they don't prepare in advance contractually. Otherwise you take a big risk that you can just drop into another job.. That risk changes as you get older and with the market. People harp on unions all the time but this is something they do for its members.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER9> The last severance package I got was one weeks' worth of compensation. They are an early stage startup, with about 15 employees and have existed for 3 years.

</comment><comment><USER10> Every large corp Ive been at has been 2 months salary. This gets distributed as a lump sum sometime after signing whatever they want you to sign.

<comment><AUTHOR> large corp as in the apples and googles?

</comment></comment><comment><USER11> 3 months salary

<comment><AUTHOR> thanks man</comment></comment>


Ask HN: Why do you hate SQL? - <AUTHOR> Background: I've used SQL for 100% of my programming career. I find it to have quirks in a similar way that Java, Ruby, C, and any language you love have. SQL is not in any stretch of the word good for programming complex things, but it appears to be amazing at asking a computer to give you data in a way that you would find useful. At times I was even able to make an oracle database perform really well on really poorly structured or awkward data.
So the question: Why do people hate SQL? And I am not talking about (kind of I am) the NoSQL movement. I totally get that these NoSQL databases have advantages in scaling or performance in exchange for a guarantee that ACID compliant databases have.
I ask because whenever I mention SQL to ruby developers, I get a sense of aversion. <comment><USER2> > Why do people hate SQL?

There are two (EDIT: three, really) kinds of anti-SQL people I've encountered:

1\. People (often SQL experts) who dislike SQL, or at leats prefer/propose alternatives to it, because it has features which make it less-than-elegant in dealing with some problems which are fairly straightforward to address under the mathematical set theory underpinning the relational model. [1]

2\. People who, for a variety of reasons (some well-considered and valid, some less so) prefer not to use relational data stores at all. (E.g., the NoSQL movement, which, despite the name, is really about alternatives to relational- model-datastores, not alternatives to the SQL language for relational datastores.)

EDIT: And, probably most relevant to your observation that:

> whenever I mention SQL to ruby developers, I get a sense of aversion.

3\. Application developers who have a strong preference for working exclusively in one preferred language, and don't really want to deal with anything outside of that.

[1] Hugh Darwen and C.J. Date are prime examples here; see, e.g., [http://www.dcs.warwick.ac.uk/~hugh/TTM/HAVING-A- Blunderful-T...](http://www.dcs.warwick.ac.uk/~hugh/TTM/HAVING-A-Blunderful- Time.html)

</comment><comment><USER3> If you don't use the power of modern relational databases, then all you do is CRUD and it feels really painful and kludgy because, without an ORM, it... well... is painful and kludgy. Most dev's don't think about things like -- what happens if someone pulls the plug during a write? Or what happens if two people update the same record at the same time? They just see ugly INSERT/SELECT/DELETE text strings scattered throughout the code.

I think most Ruby people are front-end and don't really have to deal with data (and there is nothing wrong with that).

So I suggest that you ask a different audience? Ask people who (1) work server side and (2) deal with data.

In other words, it is like asking a jazz musician why they like Mozart but not Beethoven. Not much information there.

<comment><AUTHOR> Thanks! I think this is a great way to put it. Database locking and such powerful features are incredibly important in multi-process apps. What better way to make critical sections that transcend processes or machines than using a mutex on the data itself (duh).

Having said that, there are times when you just don't care, performance trumps correctness (caching or other fuzzy indexing).

Cool thanks for the insight.

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> I am not sure about that. SQL is a tool just like many others and has its pros and cons. I prefer raw SQL when it comes to troubleshooting stuff or running adhoc queries. Nothing is faster/efficient for me than opening up an editor and firing that SQL query, dumping out the csv and emailing it back to my user.

If your work involves lot of troubleshooting, adhoc querying etc, SQL is a life saver when it comes to relational databases. I don't want to spend time writing a python code with ORM to do these kinds of queries.

</comment><comment><USER5> Well perhaps some people get into the hype of NoSQL and then it seems it's a silver bullet. I think NoSQL has its use cases and SQL has its use cases. NoSQL doesn't promise ACID, so any application which requires ACID will probably benefit from SQL. Key-value stores have its benefits in other situations. There are also niche databases, like graph databases, document databases, etc.

</comment><comment><USER6> I love SQL and I love databases. It's usually where I start any debugging - "what's in the database?" is what my first mentor always used to say when I hit a snag - surprising how often the actual data is simply not being transported to the user correctly.

I notice that devs who love their ORM of choice tend to rally against SQL itself, but I for one, would rather see a SQL statement - abstraction to an ORM is great of course because it keeps you in the paradigm of your chosen language, but it sucks because every time you move to a new framework, you have to re-learn how to create those complex pieces of SQL you've been using.....

</comment><comment><USER7> I love SQL, but I'll admit it felt strange when I first learned it. Its non- imperative nature makes it really different than most programming work. It's also harder to break down into units, so you almost need the whole query to spring from your head at once, unlike in a programming language where you can write one line at a time. It takes a little while to adapt to thinking in SQL concepts.

Perhaps another reason is that SQL formatting style is less unified, and stringing the whole query onto one line is a mess. Here is how I like to write it:

        SELECT  emp.name
        FROM    employees emp
        WHERE   emp.department_id = 5
        ;

</comment><comment><USER8> Why do you _not_ hate SQL. I suspect the answer is the relational model.

As a language, SQL is terrible. But it (poorly) implements enough of the relational model that it's still incredibly powerful.

What really puzzles me is why, when there is constant innovation in system and application programming languages, databases are still stuck on the equivalent of COBOL. Why isn't there a modern relational language?

</comment><comment><USER9> Most people I know love SQL. You should take a look at the Hydra community. They have a lot of relational data that they are storing in a NoSQL database. It's painful to work with but there is a huge reality distortion field in academia when academia embraces the wrong solution.

[http://projecthydra.org/](http://projecthydra.org/)

</comment><comment><USER10> I thought rails took care of the sql for you. create object get database access with out sql. why write crud code if you don't need to?

<comment><AUTHOR> That is very naive. Rails takes care of model persistence. But what happens when you need to join a ton of data... Sure you can fetch all the records and transform on the web server, or you can ask your database to do it in a fraction of a fraction of the time it would take ruby to do this.

Example:

Select all users who have an entry in their shopping cart with an order greater than $200 and tally up how many users there are by state.

Databases can usually do this with a few index lookups and give you results in seconds from hundreds of millions of records. There are no objects to map, just data and math. Then boom you get like 50 rows returned with a state and a tally. Try selecting all those tables building orm objects and transforming that data on your rails app.

And that's always been my take at it.

<comment><USER6> Nicely put. SQL is the great equalizer.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> when /this/could/be/done/with/files/and/folders /so/could/this /or/anything/really

instead, you get /404-error

if the db abstraction layer and URL rewrite engine is having a problem..

thousands of lines of code just to mimic a filesystem? why?

</comment><comment><USER12> Because we are still querying databases with concatenated strings in 2013.

<comment><USER13> But that's your project's problem, it's possible to query without ever concating a string or even writing SQL (ORM).

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> I would really like SQL to be database independent.</comment>


Google releases 53 gender fluid emoji - sahin-boydas https://www.fastcompany.com/90343461/google-releases-gender-fluid-emoji <comment><AUTHOR> If we'd just kept to the round yellow faces that represent everyone and no one in particular we wouldn't be in this mess :)

<comment><USER2> Just imagine how much man-hour, money, and energy have been allocated to actually turning emojis into a race and gender problem. And next to that is all the mental overhead for people when they want to use these emojis with different skin tones and genders these days.

<comment><USER3> Truely we've became a race of bureaucrats and "artists". Unfit to do any productive work.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> Investigating the Potential for Miscommunication Using Emoji

[https://grouplens.org/blog/investigating-the-potential- for-m...](https://grouplens.org/blog/investigating-the-potential-for- miscommunication-using-emoji/)

[https://grouplens.org/site- content/uploads/Emoji_Interpretat...](https://grouplens.org/site- content/uploads/Emoji_Interpretation_Paper.pdf)

</comment><comment><USER5> Feels like an overly dressed article for what amounts to "Google now allows haircuts for emojis". Also I had a laugh at the swimmer emoji. I guess they could have a different hair style under their swim cap.

Tangentially related, Does anyone else have a problem seeing these graphically dense emojis? I find myself always squinting for anything other than the iconic emojis. It's pretty telling that even the article itself has to blow them up to show the details.

<comment><USER6> I found the only emojis I use are on Telegram as a shortcut to find a sticker I want. I've never seen an emoji larger than 64x64px anywhere outside of source documents.

99.9% of people, at most, use the basic emojis if any at all. In my book, this is just for Google to get "woke" points.

</comment></comment><comment><USER7> Am I missing something? These don't seem to have anything to do with "gender fluid", which to my knowledge means someone whose gender is not static (and not even necessarily non-binary).

These just seem like emojis without assigned or assignable gender. If anything, this is the gender analogue to race's Simpson yellow skin.

<comment><USER8> How's Apu fit into the "yellow is neutral" thought, here?

<comment><USER9> You'll note they removed Apu from the show.</comment></comment></comment>


3 Technological Innovations that Could Revolutionize Meditation Practice - <AUTHOR> http://www.unreadyandwilling.com/2013/11/technology-and-meditation/

<comment><USER2> Yes, to better concentrate you should buy more distracting technology.

You don't need to add anything to meditation, if you need an fMRI or a headset you're already missing the point.

It's like running, you don't need a fitbit or a special outfit, we all come equipped with everything we need to run.

<comment><USER3> Do you read NaturalNews?

<comment><USER2> Nope, but I do frequently go outside, does that count?</comment></comment></comment>


Security Issue with Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) Titan Security Keys - <AUTHOR> https://security.googleblog.com/2019/05/titan-keys-update.html <comment><USER2> For anyone else who has to go through the process:

Go to the replacement page: [https://myaccount.google.com/replacemykey](https://myaccount.google.com/replacemykey)

If you qualify for the return, there will be a box displaying the key you purchased (in my case it says "Titan Security Key Bundle"). If you do not see this box and you have multiple Google accounts, make sure you've selected the one in which you placed the order (and is paired to your account—thanks programd) by clicking on your avatar in the top right. If you're not simply in the wrong account, Google doesn't think you qualify.

At that point, you'll end up on the shopping page. Add the replacement key (it will tell you the full price of the item but don't worry). Proceed to checkout. On the final checkout screen, you should find a promo applied which brings your total down to $0. If you don't, you're probably buying another one so don't confirm.

<comment><USER3> It's great to read that it works this way for at least someone out there. For me, after clicking 'Get Started' at the above page I was sent to [https://support.google.com/store/contactflow?dl=change_cance...](https://support.google.com/store/contactflow?dl=change_cancel_or_return_an_order&p=replacemykey&visit_id=<series- of-numbers-removed>&rd=1)

And yes, I'm using the current Chrome and script/ad-blockers are disabled.

<comment><USER2> I was seeing that as well at first (with chat disabled as an option). Changing to the right account and revisiting the replacement key page in the same browser window was what brought me to the right page. Now I can't reproduce getting to that support page.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> Not the most user-friendly replacement process here, Google.

First I had to chat with a representative, which wasn't terrible but still took time.

Now I need to place a "replacement order" for a new set of keys. And it's charging me $1.00 for the replacement key plus $0.07 tax.

And on top of all that I need to print labels for fedex, box up the old keys, and drive the ewaste box to a fedex/kinkos/whatever.

Maybe Yubikey wasn't so terrible after all...

<comment><USER4> Was the replacement order site not working for you?

<comment><USER3> Not clear to me what 'working' means to you. The replacement site worked by sending me to a contact form where I had to chat with a representative then wait for an email to initiate an RMA where I had to pay $1.07 via credit card.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> "Once paired, an attacker in close physical proximity to you could use their device to masquerade as your affected security key and connect to your device at the moment you are asked to press the button on your key. After that, they could attempt to change their device to appear as a Bluetooth keyboard or mouse and potentially take actions on your device."

Why is a bluetooth device allowed to spontaneously change its type and suddenly become an authenticated keyboard and/or mouise? Could this be done to insecure BT headphones or is something specific to a security key? Is the security key actually a keyboard?

<comment><USER6> I'm not sure if it's identical in the Bluetooth world but the USB keys do present as a HID keyboard because the one-time pad & TOTP functionality require it to emit a string of random characters and there's no other generic way to do that.

<comment><USER7> That's what I thought too, but it seems like FIDO CTAP over BLE is its own thing and does not use Bluetooth HID: [https://fidoalliance.org/specs/fido-v2.0-id-20180227/fido- cl...](https://fidoalliance.org/specs/fido-v2.0-id-20180227/fido-client-to- authenticator-protocol-v2.0-id-20180227.html)

The fact that paired devices are able to arbitrarily change their profile long after pairing seems to be the real issue here, and probably what was patched in yesterday's iOS/macOS releases.

There is nothing on this in the security notes to these updates, but my guess is that the CVEs will be disclosed in a bit.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> Has anyone seen a description of the "misconfiguration"? It appears that both iOS (is) and Android (will) ship mitigations which disable the existing keys, but I can't find a description of the actual issue.

</comment><comment><USER9> Is this issue applicable to Feitian MultiPass key[0]? As far as I can tell, Google rebranded them as Titan Key. Ones with the Feitian's labels were handed out by Google to activists at various conferences. I assume there's no way they'll be replacing those (since they were handed out for free), but it would be nice to know if they're affected or not.

[0] [https://www.ftsafe.com/products/FIDO/Multi](https://www.ftsafe.com/products/FIDO/Multi)

<comment><USER10> I use the Feitian Multipass that I bought from Amazon before Titan Keys were available. I had connected to my Google account using my iphone.

This morning I received the "Update on your Titan Security Key" email from Google. I was able submit the $0 order for replacement using the Google replacement link.

So seems like Google can't tell different between the Feitian Multipass and their version.

<comment><AUTHOR> Seems like they will give you a free one if you have an account with a feitan key added. Regardless of whether or not it's actually a titan key and even if you didn't buy it from them.

<comment><USER11> I'm in Canada, they didn't offer to send me a Google one, they directed me to Feitian's replacement site instead.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER12> Quick link to replacement: [https://myaccount.google.com/replacemykey](https://myaccount.google.com/replacemykey)

</comment><comment><USER13> I'm curious, what did Apple fix in 12.3 that makes the older Titans unusable? It sounds like something Bluetooth-related.

<comment><USER7> Yes, this looks like there is a much larger vulnerability disclosure about to happen and Google is giving people a chance to update to non-vulnerable versions of their operating systems.

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> I wonder if the key I just ordered two hours ago will be effected. Google sent out an email they were back in stock.

</comment><comment><USER15> The interesting tidbit here is around iOS 12.2 and 12.3 (and I assume also affects macOS 10.14.5 but people generally use USB based U2F hardware keys). In the 10.14.5 what's new page, it says "Disables accessories with insecure Bluetooth connections."</comment>


Show HN: Drop-in billing and feature access management for SaaS - <AUTHOR> https://mightydash.com <comment><AUTHOR> TL;DR If you're a SaaS company, mightydash.com lets your users pick a plan, pay you and get access to what they paid for. Takes 15 mins and saves you at least a week of engineering

Hello all, we've built a ton of SaaS apps in the past year, and payments have always been a headache. Yes, Stripe provides all the infrastructure to handle the grungy stuff, but you still have to build a ton of on top of it to get to something a customer can use. Decided to scratch my own itch and built mightydash.com to solve this.

This is all the stuff I've had to build myself that MightyDash enables out of the box: \- Let users add, change or remove a credit card \- Select a plan \- Let a user downgrade/cancel a plan, but make sure the user still retains access to features they paid for till the next billing period \- Let a user upgrade a plan and explain that they'll be prorated (so they don't complain to support) \- In my app, restrict access to a feature based on the user's plan (eg - you can only send 100 emails on the free plan) \- Add a limited promo (allow 500 people to use promo code DEAL for 1 month free) \- Add a no credit- card trial

It's early and works for React/Node atm, but can easily extend it to your stack if you reach out.

I've looked at Chargebee, Recurly and more. They offer a lot of options, but not the exact set of things that someone needs to get a SaaS product off the ground instantly.

Would love to understand if this has been a problem for you too and what else you'd want handled for you

<comment><USER2> Are the actual subscriptions created in stripe ? In other words, is it Stripe dependent for subscriptions ?

<comment><USER3> This is a bit of shameless plug, but if you are looking to manage subscriptions outside of Stripe, and simply use Stripe for payment processing, take a look at Kill Bill, the open-source subscription billing & payments platform: [https://killbill.io/](https://killbill.io/)

\- Stripe tutorial: [https://docs.killbill.io/latest/stripe_plugin.html](https://docs.killbill.io/latest/stripe_plugin.html)</comment></comment></comment>


Contraptor - open source DIY hardware prototyping - <AUTHOR> http://www.contraptor.org/

<comment><AUTHOR> The maintainers of the contraptor project have done some pretty neat demonstrations with an Arduino. I was particularly impressed with this X-Y plotter/drilling assembly: <http://www.contraptor.org/fast-drilling- contraption>

</comment><comment><USER2> right now, making an x-y plotter tends to be an exercise in reinventing the wheel.

this is so utterly cool, it made my day...i love to see open source hardware projects! if makerbeam is successful as well it could really make OSH robotics come alive.

<comment><USER3> Limor,

Thanks for the comments. You should be glad to know that on my flickr page I am in fact using one of your open source hardware projects with my contraptor stuff :) The motor shield. Check it..

<http://www.flickr.com/photos/31697990@N00/4045043959/>

</comment></comment><comment><USER4> It is like an erector set for grownups, makes me wish I had 300 extra dollars to spend.

<comment><USER3> I am one of the creators of Contraptor.org - Just do what my partner and I have been doing for the last 2 years. Just build it yourself :) The pay for contraptor path is for people who. A. Do not have access to drill / drill press hack saw / cutt off saw. B. Do not want to mess with it. C. Do not have the time to do it.

With prices the way they are now we are breaking even. (If that) It costs money to fab stuff apparently :) Anyhow, thanks for the kind words. <USER3>
<comment><USER4> Next year I get access to my schools machine shop and metal scraps so I'll hopefully be able to build something along these lines.</comment></comment></comment>


How to go down with style - <AUTHOR>

My mentor was the CEO and co-founder of a hundred-strong successful (not-so-tech) company when a strong recession hit. He explored all the options, talked with his top clients and creditors, and did an accurate forecast of the business for the following years. The outlook wasn't good at all.
He spoke with all the employees and told them exactly what was going on. He made found other jobs for many of them. And paid everyone full compensation plus some extra benefits (like health insurance.) The employees did a thank you barbecue for him, completely on their own. The price was splitting with the other founder, to sell everything up to his car and some personal assets, and go back to basics in his personal life. His wife left him.
Not many years later, after the recession, he decided to set up another very similar company. Getting credit was trivial. Setting up a workforce swift as several key former employees joined in even without discussing salary. Within months the new company almost wiped out the competition. "His word means a lot to us." By then he had a much happier and younger girlfriend.
I've seen it with my own eyes as I was a small partner.
The competition was hated by knowledgeable people in the trade as they didn't pay salaries for months and then either went bankrupt or just fired most people anyway after many broken promises. They defaulted in their debts so their creditors weren't happy. And the few remaining customers during the recession had a terrible service, in particular they were left in the cold in many cases due to the chaotic situation. There were just too many competitors for only a handful of clients.
Think twice before passing forward your pain, be it by inaction or by delusion. Nobody will judge you if you can't kill a gang of Goliaths. But everybody will hate you if you lie and fail them.
DISCLAIMER: This story is not related to Silicon Valley and I don't have a company right now (was incorporating.) It is just a lesson to counter-balance some dreadful advice seen here on going on no matter what. It isn't my place to tell anybody they have a chance or not. I'm sure investors, clients, creditors, and experienced entrepreneur gurus (like PG) can advice you on that (just like my mentor was advised in the story.) <comment><USER2> Truer words never spoken. The valley is an incredibly small place, and your actions as a CEO, even a decade ago, are remembered and spoken of today. One CEO (who shall remain nameless) of a classic startup that I worked for 6 months at (so I have no skin/bias - I didn't hit my cliff - went to work for the next startup before getting there) - ended up not getting traction quickly enough, and, near the end, sold out to Oracle for $90mm.

The Common Shareholders (all of the employees) had their options completely wiped out. Totally worthless.

The preferred shareholders got their money out (which is fine, that's they are called preferred shares) - but the CEO, and a few of the founders who were no longer with the company, received multi-million dollar handshakes, even though they were common share holders. This was a Kleiner Company.

Lessons learned from this:

The CEO, regardless of whether he is a Common Shareholder, is not in the same class as you, and will be given preferential treatment. This particular CEO will be remembered by roughly 120 employees who have spread through the valley 4 years later, as the asshole that he is.

If you are a founder, you still have leverage in a sale, even if you aren't with the company. Keep your lawyers close by if a deal takes place for a company that you helped found.

Worker-Bees - Remember where you are in the feeding chain, and don't trust Kleiner to recompense you when they are exiting.

<comment><USER3> Watch the

       formatting

It stretches the whole page.

<comment><USER3> thanks

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> I might get downvoted for this but what the hell. Did you effing _have_ to mention the younger girlfriend prize while talking about honor of all things?

You just made me and every other female/over 30 reader feel like shit. If you think we all get worthless as we grow older, have the decency of keeping it to yourself. Especially if you are going to expound the moral virtues of treating people right.

 _"Think twice before passing forward your pain, be it by inaction or by delusion"_ indeed.

<comment><USER5> I think your comment was very immature and unwarranted.

The man's wife was wrong to leave him. The younger and prettier woman was smart and fortunate enough to have found a worthwhile man.

<comment><USER6> I'm male and reacted the same way as blurry. It's a puerile touch. Perhaps we can avoid this sort of thing in the future?

<comment><USER5> I believe the person was simply reporting on the facts, and I think that pointing out that fact (that the new wife was young and pretty) was valid, as it illustrated one of the ways that the man's efforts paid off, how life rewarded his honesty, integrity, and commitment to do the right thing.

It made me feel good actually, some woman leaves him FOR DOING THE RIGHT THING . . . but then, eventually, why, he meets a great woman who is in many ways (including young and pretty) better than the other one. How wonderful! Good for him! Good for her!

I love it when someone who does the right thing is rewarded.

Would it have been better you think if he had remained single, or if he had ended up with a wife that was not as great as the one that left him?

<comment><USER7> "Would it have been better you think if he had remained single, or if he had ended up with a wife that was not as great as the one that left him?"

I think it wouldn't have been mentionned in the story then. Still a valid, if rethoric, question.

<comment><USER5> I agree.

I like that story, wish there were more like it!

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> As an interesting side note, this sort of thing (selling off assets to pay employees prior to liquidation) is illegal in most circumstances in the UK and Australia (and likely in other Common Law jurisdictions) thanks to a Chancery case Parke v Daily News Ltd [1962] Ch 927.

In the case, all of the company's assets were sold and the balance paid to workers made redundant by the closure of the company's plant. The court found in favor of the plaintiff, a minor shareholder.

Put simply, Directors must act in the best interests of the company, even if doing so is to the detriment of employees.

Can't speak for California or other US jurisdictions, but it's certainly illegal here in Australia.

<comment><USER3> I thought that shareholders were supposed to be the last to get paid.

<comment><USER9> Yes, but the managements sole responsibility is to make money for the shareholders. Not for the employees.

<comment><USER3> Yes, but that wouldn't mean they're expected to murder & steal on behalf of shareholders if opportunity presented itself.

That money is owed to employees by shareholders.

<comment><USER9> Within the law obviously ;-)

<comment><USER3> Sorry, that sounded like a left rant. What I meant is 'isn't that outside the law?' The law says debts get paid, then shareholders can split what's left. I believe bankruptcy court is supposed to handle what debts go first. But it shouldn't theoretically make any difference to shareholders what debts go first.

Obviously the trick is to make sure your friends (the employees) get paid first by settling that debt before declaring. I can see how that might be legally troublesome. But it's the vendors, lenders, etc. that should be complaining, not shareholders.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER10> If you're nice and honourable to people, they will be with you for years. It's not about being friendly ("Hey Dave, GREAT to talk to you again"), it's about just being genuinely nice and giving people good deals. It's good to be fair.

</comment><comment><USER11> Alfred Pease, one of the guys behind Perceptron (PRCP), and the father of a classmate, had similar advice for some of us a decade ago: knowing when to get out is at least as important as knowing when to stay in. He got out of the operating system market with dignity when MSFT was coming on strong and was able to help build Perceptron.

</comment><comment><USER12> when i closed the doors on one of my business ventures i did the same for the employees that were honest with me. the other ones just left before hand anyways. today we still talk and one day my friend and former employee says he will repay me. i think our choices are for eternity even if we never get punished or rewareded. i just want to know i contributed good to the world.

</comment><comment><USER13> You have very good mentor. And I liked the part about "younger girlfriend" ;-)

</comment><comment><USER14> Great story, thanks for sharing.

</comment><comment><USER15> Great post, thanks!</comment>


Show HN: Gitty for GitHub - <AUTHOR> http://my.mstrick.com/gittyappweb

<comment><USER2> Gitty is a fantastic app just launched today. It makes managing your GitHub really easy.

The UI is absolutely beautiful and highly recommend it for anyone out there using GitHub.

Go grab it now! [https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/gitty-for- github/id645696309...](https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/gitty-for- github/id645696309?mt=8&ign-mpt=uo%3D4)

</comment><comment><USER3> This app is great for reading notifications on the go. I've been testing it for a few weeks and definitely prefer it to visiting the website on my phone.

</comment><comment><USER4> Fantastic app that's sure to be a favorite across the development community</comment>


Ask HN: I'm a web developer, how do I get started in PLT and compilers - <AUTHOR>

I'm a senior web developer, but I've always wanted to learn more about PLT and compilers. I'm still happy doing web development, but the day will come I'd like to do something else and I'd like to be prepared.<p>What resources can you recommend to get into PLT and compilers, not only in a theoretical but also in a practical way? <comment><USER2> Easily the best textbook I've read on the topic is "Programming Language Application and Interpretation" or PLAI. It uses Racket to walk you through the implementation of different programming language features, while delving into the theory behind them.

It's available for free on Brown's website - [http://cs.brown.edu/courses/cs173/2012/book/](http://cs.brown.edu/courses/cs173/2012/book/)

I couldn't recommend it more highly.

<comment><AUTHOR> Wow, I've watched the introduction video and it looks really great.

Do you recommend reading the book first, or watching the lectures?

<comment><USER2> I've only actually read the book. It's definitely thorough enough to stand on its own, but if you're having trouble understanding some of the sections (It's not easy material!), I could see the lectures being a valuable resource to turn to.</comment></comment></comment>


NY Times waiting till last moment to renew domain name? - <AUTHOR> http://dodomainer.com/2011/06/28/general-interest/nytimes-online-no-more-come-2012/

<comment><AUTHOR> I didn`t say they were waiting til the last minute. I asked the question. How long does the NY Times need to decide to renew?

</comment><comment><USER2> They have six months to renew the domain name… they're hardly "waiting until the last minute".</comment>


Alibaba hires U.S. lobbying firm as it eyes Yahoo - <AUTHOR> http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-yahoo-alibaba-idUSTRE7BR1CC20111229

<comment><USER2> I'd love to see Jack Ma running all of yahoo. Yahoo (non-asian assets) need to be blown up and rebuilt from a corporate standpoint (remove 50% of the beauracracy, etc)</comment>


JavaScript Wolfenstein 3D Engine  - <AUTHOR> http://devfiles.myopera.com/articles/650/step_4_enemies.htm <comment><USER2> I don't get it, sure it's impressive, kind of like a Rube Goldberg machine is impressive. But let's step back a second - isn't it a sign of a monumental failure of computer programming that we're gawking at a machine which can perform ~6 billion calculations/second (not counting the GPU) displaying a 310 by 190 "3d" maze at ~25 frames a second?

<comment><USER3> No, not necessarily. You've been spoiled by GPUs.

Try filling any modern screen buffer (>1024x768) pixel-by-pixel, just as software rasterizers do, even with just a solid color. You'll find it takes a long and quite frankly unacceptable time (for real-time apps at least), even with modern processors.

Even at 1024x768 (@ 25 frames/sec), you are given just ~300 cycles/pixel, which is gone quickly after slow memory accesses and multi-cycle instructions.

<comment><USER4> _Try filling any modern screen buffer ( >1024x768) pixel-by-pixel_

Sure, if you completely throw away SIMD, things might be slow.

 _you are given just ~300 cycles/pixel, which is gone quickly after slow memory accesses_

Memory accesses are pipelined and are generally not slow; an L1 cache access is 3 cycles and prefetching on modern CPUs is generally flawless for such situations.

 _multi-cycle instructions._

Since when do you need multiplies to fill a screen with a solid color? Even if you had to do YUV -> RGB conversion, that is done much faster with a multi- dimensional LUT than with multiplies (see swscale). Of course it's even faster in SIMD.

It's quite possible to do very fast rasterization on modern hardware without a GPU. It's just that people generally _don't do it_ , because everyone has GPUs to do it for them.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> For comparison, what Flash can do now: <http://www.badsectoracula.com/peponi/rayfaster2/>

<comment><USER2> For comparison, here's what computers could do outside the browser, _two years ago_ : <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACQW8iVCbhY>

Why do our expectations drop so drastically just because something is downloaded from the web and run in a browser? Not that there's anything wrong with that, but accessing something via web and running things naively aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.

<comment><USER6> Anyone know what specs are needed to run Crysis at the performance as in the video? My impression is that you still can't do it with mainstream hardware.

I was thinking pedantically that there are more powerful "computers" available than a high-end PC and they would be able to do even better than this example, but then it occurred me that it's also possible that game engines are the most sophisticated physics/graphics engines... worldwide, they probably have more attention and money focussed on them than even the US military could afford (guessing).

<comment><USER7> You can play Crysis just fine on a at 1600 x 1200 on a 700$ gaming system today. 90% of what you see is done by the graphics card, and for $180 you can get a GTX 260 which plays crisis just fine. Leaving 500$ for the rest of the system which is still ok. ([http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814150...](http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814150398))

[http://www.gamespot.com/pages/forums/show_msgs.php?topic_id=...](http://www.gamespot.com/pages/forums/show_msgs.php?topic_id=26589439) for an actual gamers review w GTX 260.

<comment><USER6> thanks, but most of those gamers are noting low frame rates, less than 50 fps... while still playable, it's not as smooth as the '07 demo.

<comment><USER7> That demo is also at a lower resolution than 1600 x 1200.

However, the average frame rate is almost useless, it's the minimum that's important and an absolute minimum of 24FPS on the most demanding demo is perfectly playable. Mostly when you play the game it's far higher than that, but in the middle of a huge firefight when vegetation is being chopped to bit's it's still playable.

PS: I wish most reviewers would note the worst frame rate instead of letting 100FPS in some areas cover for sub 30FPS in others. EX: [http://www.guru3d.com/article/palit-geforce- gtx-260-sp216-so...](http://www.guru3d.com/article/palit-geforce- gtx-260-sp216-sonic-review--test/14)

<comment><USER6> Good point about min. frame rate.

But is that demo lower than 1600x1200? The Youtube video is; but I don't know about the demo.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER3> VERY cool! I've seen this before, but this is the best version yet.

<comment><USER8> How do they do it? Is each frame created with HTML/CSS?

<comment><USER9> The CANVAS tag allows per pixel placement. It's what makes things like this possible.

From the Source-

This file is part of the article series by Jacob Seidelin about creating a ray casting engine with JavaScript, DOM and Canvas.

If you have questions or comments, please contact the author at either firstname.lastname@example.com or <http://blog.nihilogic.dk/>

The code samples here are freely available under the MIT license. See: [<http://www.nihilogic.dk/licenses/mit-license.txt>]

The graphics for sprites and walls are property of id Software.

<comment><USER10> >> "It's what makes things like this possible."

You could, and I've seen, versions that use loads of <div> elements which get resized, or you could use a ton of <img> elements. So it's certainly possible without canvas, but I'm not sure how the frame rate would compare.

<comment><USER11> Check the source. This one is done without canvas, and with div and img elements. The canvas elements used here are for the minimap.

<comment><USER12> It's png sprites:

<http://devfiles.myopera.com/articles/650/walls.png> <http://devfiles.myopera.com/articles/650/lamp.png> <http://devfiles.myopera.com/articles/650/tablechairs.png> <http://devfiles.myopera.com/articles/650/guard.png>

You use the piece you want then scale it. For distance, make it smaller, for viewing something that is on the side you shrink it in width while leaving the height alone, this gives the illusion that it is slanted.

It would not be possible to do true 3d with this because you would need to scale something into a trapezoid which HTML can not do.

The guard png implies that you can shoot (and get shot), but I could not get that to work. By the name of the URL looks like there should be a step 6.

</comment></comment></comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER13> This rocks. So many Javascript demos that we see here are just rehashes of things we all did as demos back in the days of Netscape Navigator. This actually does something you couldn't have pulled off a few years back.

Well done.

<comment><USER12> Actually, you could do this with Netscape Navigator, sorry to burst your bubble.

It's just images in a row scaled to different sizes. The effect is amazing, but the idea is simple.

<comment><USER14> Well, to get pedantic, I think the original Navigator fizzled out before CSS was truly supported. Not sure you could do it without it.

<comment><USER12> You don't need CSS to do this, just positioned images (which you can do with layers, or even with a blank image above the main one).

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER15> HTML 5 with the 3D css feature should allow a whole different approach to this sort of thing, yes?

</comment><comment><USER16> Wow this is a good javascript engine benchmark. Chromium 3 gets twice as many FPS as Firefox 3.5

</comment><comment><USER17> Sir, I am impressed!</comment>


Your Ethnicity Determines the Species of Bacteria That Live in Your Mouth - <AUTHOR> http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/science/2013/10/your-ethnicity-determines-the-species-of-bacteria-that-live-in-your-mouth/

<comment><USER2> The most interesting fact I've read about the bacteria that live on us is that the populations on our hands differ.

The average hand has about 150 different species, with only about 17% of those also appearing on the other hand of the same person. [1]

[1] [http://msms.ehe.osu.edu/2012/02/29/how-many-bacteria- species...](http://msms.ehe.osu.edu/2012/02/29/how-many-bacteria-species-can- coexist-on-a-single-hand-and-do-girls-really-have-cooties/)

</comment><comment><USER3> Fascinating.

This is different than I thought: "The variation along ethnic lines, they believe, is a reflection of genetics, not environment."

Taking one example that I know a little about. Korea. I would think that environmental impact would include things like the type of probiotic foods they eat - like kimchi, fermented soybeans and fermented fish would affect the flora and fauna in their mouth.

Also eating habits - Koreans will often share a soup container and side dishes where everyone sticks their chopsticks and soupspoons into a shared pot,

These things would affect the types of bacteria in their bodies I would think...

</comment><comment><USER4> Here is the source: [http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjourna...](http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0077287)

<comment><USER5> Thanks for the paper!

So only 4 US ethnicities were tested: African Americans, Caucasians, Chinese and Latinos. That feels extremely broad - especially "Chinese" and "African Americans" combine many, many different genetic groups. Edit: The Chinese government, for example, recognizes 56 ethnic groups, which may or may not genetically be distinct.

>The subgingival microbial community was able to predict an individual's ethnicity with a 62% accuracy, 58% sensitivity and 86% specificity.

Wait, that doesn't seem very good - I could flip a dented coin and get similar results?

<comment><USER6> What's with the popular usage of latino or hispanic as a separate race?

From wiki: "The United States Census uses the ethnonym Hispanic or Latino to refer to "a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race."

Also, remember that there are many white/caucasian people in Mexico and other latin american countries that also are hispanic. Ricky Martin is an obvious example of a white Puerto Rican, for instance.

I am not saying a mestizo should necessarily be classified as "white", but there seems to be an idea these days that hispanics are a separate race, which is incorrect.

<comment><USER7> In general "race" is a bogus term. Usually, when people (especially Americans) use the word race, they actually mean something closer to ethnicity.

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> They're not sure whether this stems from genetics or environment - they say they _think_ it's genetics, but there might be a simple environmental explanation:

The main way people exchange mouth bacteria is through dating, and there's a huge tendency to date people of similar ethnicity.

<comment><USER9> It's human nature, it's in our DNA. People like to hang out w/ those that look like them, they feel more comfortable. Yes there are outliers here and there, but for the most part, I can bet 70%+ of the people reading this are as follows: if you are Asian, I bet most of your good friends are Asian, if you white, then most of your good friends are white, and so on and so forth. It's not racism, it's just human nature that starts early on. If you grew up in America you know what I'm talking about, ever notice how young kids including yourself start naturally forming groups late in elementary school? if not then definitely around middle school. Whites hang out with the whites, Asians hang out with the Asians, Latinos w/ Latinos, blacks w/ blacks, etc..

<comment><USER10> I don't think that was being questioned at any point. The comment is about whether people share similarities in their microbiome because of their genetic background or because they hang around with people generally of the same background.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> I wonder how (if at all) this might be tied to recent findings about gut bacteria and obesity.

We're still just scratching the surface in terms of our understanding of the human body. Doctors in 2113 will be as horrified by some of our early 21st century medical practices and recommendations as we are of the Downton Abbey era of medicine.

</comment><comment><USER12> This doesn't surprise me. People of different ethnicities smell subtly different, which either comes from the bacteria or else it means there are different chemicals available to the bacteria, probably both.

<comment><USER13> I'd say everyone smells subtly different and it has nothing to do with ethnicity; A dog can easily differentiate between people by sheer smell alone.

</comment></comment><comment><USER14> Does this imply I can eventually login with my breath?

kord@brush:~$ ssh -i .ssh/id-halitosis teeth

</comment><comment><USER15> Wow, that's unexpected -- I would have expected diet to the primary determinant.

<comment><USER16> Diet might still be major: they say their predictive model got ethnicity right 62% of the time, from the bacterial info. I suspect that you could also predict ethnicity better than chance from diet logs.

To really tease out the genetic influence, you'd want to standardize diet, _and_ give all strains equal chance to colonize. Perhaps, compare cohabiting similar-diet same-sex kissing-partners of different-ethnicities, after an initial palate-cleansing course of antibiotics? It's the only way to be sure!</comment></comment>


Squaring two digit numbers in your head - <AUTHOR> http://www.jgc.org/blog/2010/03/squaring-two-digit-numbers-in-your-head.html

<comment><USER2> Works even better for squares ending in 5 because you'll round up and down to multiples of ten which means the number ends in 00 and you'll always be adding 25.

So:

      35 squared is 4x3 x100 = 12 00 + 25 = 1225

      45 squared is 5x4 x100 = 20 00 + 25 = 2025

      55 squared is 6x5 x100 = 30 00 + 25 = 3025

When I heard about this trick it was referred to as vedic, hindu or indian math, but I don't know if that's actually historically/geographically accurate or not. There's some Japanese nintendo DS games that aim to train you in it, I think it was a bit of a craze over there.

<comment><USER3> The two game series are called Brain Age, and Big Brain Academy. Both are great fun - and helpful.

<comment><USER4> While those are fun, IIRC (and I've spent some time with both) neither of them do large multiplication, and I'm quite confident neither of them try to _teach_ this technique to you; they just present math problems with no technique. (Memorization is appropriate for anything up to 12x12 or 15x15 anyhow, and if they exceed that it's not by much.)

<comment><USER2> Yeah, that's a different thing, the games I was thinking of were:

 _Pa to Tokeru! India Suugaku Drill DS_ [http://www.yesasia.com/global/pa-to- tokeru-india-suugaku-dri...](http://www.yesasia.com/global/pa-to-tokeru-india- suugaku-drill-ds-japan-version/1005152732-0-0-0-en/info.html)

 _Indo Shiki Keisan Drill DS_ <http://www.play- asia.com/paOS-13-71-9g-49-en-70-2fox.html>

I think the latter might be the same as the Korean title, _Indian Math Brain DS_.

For those that don't want to import stuff that they probably can't read (though I find you can usually get by) there's also _Make 10: a journey of numbers_ which is a weird maths based adventure game, kind of Brain Age meets WarioWare:

[http://www.nintendo.co.uk/NOE/en_GB/games/nds/make_10_a_jour...](http://www.nintendo.co.uk/NOE/en_GB/games/nds/make_10_a_journey_of_numbers_9256.html)

</comment></comment></comment></comment><comment><USER5> In case this observation isn't immediately obvious:

        Observe that 27^2 = 30 x 24 + 3^2

It's derived from this:

        (x + c)(x - c) = x^2 + cx - cx - c^2
                       = x^2 - c^2
        => x^2 = (x + c)(x - c) + c^2

(I note that the blog explains this later, but I had to stop when I read the observation and work it out for myself on paper - when reading the text, it seemed like this step was missing.)

<comment><USER6> IMHO, a clearer version:

                     x^2 = x^2
       x^2 + (r^2 - r^2) = x^2
       (x^2 - r^2) + r^2 = x^2

(x + r)(x - r) + r^2 = x^2

If we continue you'll also notice that:

          (x + r)(x - r) = x^2 - r^2

Which is useful if you need to calculate the opposite where two numbers are mirrored around a suitable even number, i.e. 28 * 32 -> (30 + 2)(30 - 2) = 30^2 - 2^2

<comment><USER5> I don't think that's clearer. Factoring quadratic equations is taught in schools, and that's where you learn how to multiply out expressions of this form:

        (ax + b)(cx + d) = ax(cx + d) + b(cx + d)
                         = acx^2 + adx + bcx + bd

A special case of these factorizations is:

        (ax + c)(ax - c) = ax(ax - c) + c(ax - c)
                         = a^2x^2 - acx + acx - c^2
                         = a^2x^2 - c^2

The reason it's a special case is because there's cancellation of the terms. So starting out with this is useful, as it's likely to be something people have met in school - but people needn't remember the factorization (which isn't strictly speaking needed much - we have an equation for solving this), just how to multiply the terms (which is used more often). From it, we can derive all that's needed for the trick, without any odd moves.

With your own version, you have to introduce a term which adds up to zero - (r^2 - r^2) - for no obvious reason, and then you need to already know how to factor x^2 - r^2 to (x + r)(x - r) in order to understand the last step.

So I think your version is less easy to understand because it's not clear why the first step is what it is, and it relies on more recollection of school arithmetic.

(The only reason I expound at length on this is because I think what makes something obvious or easy to understand is a deep topic, linked to what's assumed to be known beforehand and the size of inferential jumps between steps, and is important for programming, writing, and indeed all communication.)

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER7> A good shortcut I use is for calculating cumulative interest / growth.

x% growth followed by y% growth is equal to a growth of (x+y).xy % overall. Eg. 6% followed by 8% growth is 14.48% overall growth.

You can easily extend this to account for negative growth rates, more decimal places and so on. Very useful in tracking business metrics, portfolio valuation and so on.

</comment><comment><USER8> I remember reading how Bethe taught Feynman how to square numbers around 50 in his head.

1) Start at 50^2 = 2500. 2) Pick a number, determine how far away it is from 50, call it N (N can be negative). 3) Multiply N by 100, add that number to 2500. 4) Square N, add that number to your current total.

For example, 52^2. 1) Start at 2500. 2) N = 2. 3) N _100 = 200. 2500 + 200 = 2700. 4) N^2 = 4. 2700 + 4 = 2704.

Example when N is negative: 47^2. 1) Start at 2500. 2) N = -3. 3) N_100 = -300. 2500 + (-300) = 2200. 4) N^2 = 9. 2200 + 9 = 2209.

</comment><comment><AUTHOR> Another interesting thing from the book is square root estimation. For example what's the square root of 73?

Well you know it's between 8 and 9 because 8^2 is 64 and 9^2 is 81, so it's 8 point something. The difference between 64 and 73 is 9. His estimate would be 8 plus 9 divided by 2 times 8. Or how much the low estimate is off by, divided by twice the guess.

In this case that's 8 9/16 = 8.5625. The actual square root of 73 is 8.544.

<comment><USER9> _The actual square root of 73 is 8.544._

No it isn't.

</pedantry>

<comment><USER10> <pedantry>your XML failed to parse</pedantry>

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER11> One technique I like to use when doing any kind of multiplication is to round the numbers, multiply, then add the multiplication of the remainders together. 222 * 15 = 200 * 15 + (15 * 22) = 3000 + (15 * 20) + (15 * 2) = 3000 + 30 + 300 = 3330.

I would do this for all multiplication basically, though. I really like the trick presented here for doing squares. It will make life much easier if I can just remember the formula.

</comment><comment><USER12> I had read in Surely You are joking Mr Feynman, squaring numbers near 50 is really easy, for example, 49xx2 is (50 - 1)xx2 which is 2500 - 100 + 1 that is 2401.

</comment><comment><USER13> I have an odd habit to factorize the number first: 24 * 35 = 6 * 5 * 7 * 4 = 840. Oh, the article is talking about addition and squaring...

</comment><comment><USER14> It's interesting that the book cited in the submitted article

[http://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Mental-Math-Mathemagicians- Cal...](http://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Mental-Math-Mathemagicians- Calculation/dp/0307338401)

(this link is to the United States Amazon site, while the submitted article link was to amazon.co.uk)

is written mostly by a professional mathematician, but with an introduction by an author who is a historian by higher education. Michael Shermer writes a number of interesting books,

<http://www.amazon.com/Michael-Shermer/e/B001H6MCNY/>

of which my favorite is Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions of Our Time.

[http://www.amazon.com/People-Believe-Weird-Things- Pseudoscie...](http://www.amazon.com/People-Believe-Weird-Things- Pseudoscience/dp/0805070893/)

<comment><USER15> The other author (also my frosh Calculus prof) did a TED talk a while back:

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4vqr3_ROIk>

</comment></comment><comment><USER16> Woow, that is really effective ! I recently listened to Derren's Brown audiobook about memory and he teaches a really effective method to remember list of words. With his technique I can memorize really easily 20 words and still remember them days after. I never tried more but I'm sure I can do 50 words (I really have to try).

His technique :

1\. okay first imagine that the list of words begins with "telephone, sausage and monkey"

2\. When you listen to the first word, imagine something grotesque with vivid colors and unscaled. For a telephone just imagine an immense telephone, let's say a pink huge telephone.

3\. When you hear the next word, imagine something in relation with the previous word. Like you need to use smelly sausage to type on the digital numbers.

4\. Continue to do the same. Next word : "A red monkey is eating saussage"

</comment><comment><USER17> Having the ability to do quick calculations in your head is critical for good engineering.

I've worked as an electrical engineer and knowing a lot of 'envelope-style' calculations is important when you are trying to trace down problems. Being able to calculate parasitic inductance, or capacitance is key when say trying to find out why and opamp is oscillating.

</comment><comment><USER18> another approach might be to treat numbers as letters, squaring them is then represented algebraically as (a+b) ^ 2 == a^2 + b^2 + 2ab which can then be easily combined:

79^2 = 49, 126, 81 => 6241 a == 7, a^2 == 49

b == 9, b^2 == 81

2ab == 2 _7_ 9 = 126

combination == (a^2+2ab+b^2)

from 81 take 1

add '8' to 2ab == 134, take 4

add '13' to 49 == 62

answer == 6241

<comment><USER19> I do that for all 2 digit multiplication I do in my head- I just use foil.

</comment></comment><comment><USER20> something i do for more general two digit multiplies is to work from left to right, like he states. take his example, 27 squared:

2x2 = 4 2x7 + 2x7 (cross) = 28, carry the 2 now you have 68 7x7 = 49, carry the 4 729

it's usually fast enough for me, and i don't have to remember other tricks.

</comment><comment><USER21> I do 67^2 as 60 _60 + 7_ 60 + 7 _60 + 7_ 7 ...

</comment><comment><USER22> All this and _much more_ is available in Vedic Mathematics (and a lot is freely available on the internet).

</comment><comment><USER3> Very interesting approach. For those who are interested in more "different" math, google (or wikipedia) for "vedic math" (from Sanskrit _Véda_ , "knowledge"); an ancient Indian system of mathematics a bit different from the typical western teachings, said to better adhere to how the human mind works. Some amazingly efficient techniques for arithmethics on both paper and in head are to be found there.</comment>


Ask HN: Present Value of Knowing Math Well? - <AUTHOR>

A comment in another thread reminds of a question I've wanted to ask for a while. How might one calculate the present value of knowing math well as contrasted with not knowing math well? If "quantitative" careers pay better over the course of life than "nonquantitative" careers (and that seems to be the generally reported fact, how much money is worth spending during a child's education to make sure the child has enough developed math ability to pursue a quantitative career if the child so chooses?
An example calculation:
average salary of all college graduates with "quantitative" careers times number of years those graduates are in the workforce (call this term "Q")
compared to
average salary of all college graduates with "nonquantitative" careers times number of years those graduates are in the workforce (call this term "N")
and then the usual financial calculation of "present value" showing how much money today is worth as much as that difference (Q-N) in lifetime earnings. I think most parents and most young people would be surprised at how much it is worthwhile investing in learning math well.
Perhaps "quantitative" careers can be defined as careers that involve taking and passing a calculus course at the college level, and "nonquantitative" as all other careers. Or perhaps you'd like to propose a different definition.
P.S. A similar calculation could compare knowing or not knowing how to program computers. <comment><USER2> [http://www.prospects.ac.uk/cms/ShowPage/Home_page/What_do_gr...](http://www.prospects.ac.uk/cms/ShowPage/Home_page/What_do_graduates_do__2006/The_graduate_market_and_salaries/p!eLaXeij)

From the above page, in the UK:

Financial returns

Back in 2001, the government reported that graduates' lifetime earnings would be £400,000 greater than those who ended their full-time education with A-levels. Recent estimates have been more conservative. According to a study from the University of Wales Swansea, after taking into accounts the costs of acquiring a degree (foregone earnings and tuition costs), male graduates can expect to see their lifetime earnings (net of taxes) increased by £141,539 over similar men who finished their education with two or more A-levels. The corresponding figure for women is £157,982, reinforcing the findings from other studies that women benefit even more than their male counterpart from a university education.

...

The financial benefits of a degree are, perhaps unsurprisingly, subject dependent. Maths and computing degrees were found to offer the greatest increase in lifetime earnings for male graduates, whilst a degree in education represents the highest returns for women. The Swansea report concluded that the cost of gaining a degree is far less than the potential increase in lifetime earnings for the majority of graduates.

Unattributed - you can Google:

"Both graduates and non graduates who took Maths A-level ended up earning on average 10 percent more than those of similar ability and background who did not"

There's lots more if you look for it. The consensus is that having a qualification in mathematics has a measurable impact on your earnings.

</comment><comment><USER3> The present value of math skills is not just Q-N, because there are confounding factors. For example, do smarter people gravitate to quantitative careers? Do more ambitious people select quantitative careers? Do people with a better starting environment in life receive the necessary encouragement and guidance to pursue a quantitative career versus those with worse starting environments?

I have no answer to those questions, but they are all at least credible concerns. To fairly answer the OP's question, we'd have to observe people who exhibit all the qualities of a person selecting a quantitative career, but who have not actually done so.

This is similar to the problem of measuring the returns on attending elite colleges versus standard colleges. Measured by comparing the earnings of elite graduates versus standard graduates, it appears that there is a high return. But measured by tracking earnings of those who earned admission to elite colleges, but instead chose standard colleges, the difference disappears: there is no incremental return, for a person qualified to attend an elite college, for doing so.

We may have a similar problem here. Any ideas on the best way to measure this?

<comment><AUTHOR> _Do people with a better starting environment in life receive the necessary encouragement and guidance to pursue a quantitative career versus those with worse starting environments?_

The known fact (well known to economists of education) that advantaged young people are more likely to pursue and complete college degrees is indeed a confound here.

[http://www.jkcf.org/assets/files/0000/0084/Achievement_Trap....](http://www.jkcf.org/assets/files/0000/0084/Achievement_Trap.pdf)

So, yes, when any of the helpful links that have been submitted in replies in this thread report that college graduates, or college graduates of a particular kind, have higher incomes than other college graduates, or than people who didn't graduate from college at all, it may be that college didn't cause the difference. Maybe the environmental advantages that PRECEDED college caused the difference in lifetime outcomes.

But as OP I am indeed asking what a parent should think about how much to spend to ensure precollege advantages. It looks like HUGE expenditures in childhood to ensure children's success in college preparation and especially in math preparation are well warranted.

 _measured by tracking earnings of those who earned admission to elite colleges, but instead chose standard colleges, the difference disappears: there is no incremental return, for a person qualified to attend an elite college, for doing so._

This is the generally announced result of the Krueger-Dale study, but I agree with the critics of the study

[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/college-prestige- matte...](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/college-prestige-matters.html)

(previously submitted to HN)

<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=379801>

(a footnote in this study criticizes the Dale-Krueger study methodology and data analysis)

that the correct conclusion is that attending the best available college is plainly beneficial for students from low-income families, and perhaps beneficial for all students.

<comment><USER3> I read through your notes on the Dale-Krueger study and found them educational. I was not aware that their study's results indicated the opposite of the general conclusion it's often cited to support -- particularly when measured against tuition costs or Barron's rankings.

Your revised question (is it worth investing in pre-college advantages?) is slightly different than the original question (what is the value of a quantitative career?). I would agree with you that pre-college advantages tend to have very high returns.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER4> If you really want to compute this, I think you'll need to use marginal benefits of math skills, which varies a lot by person and environment. It depends on not just other aptitudes, but also preferences and circumstances surrounding that person. Britney Spears or Tiger Woods probably wouldn't benefit much from Calculus.

Even for an 'average' salary person, it depends a lot on other skills s/he has. A top salesperson/marketing wizard does not need calculus and can earn several times the salary of the best engineer who does not pursue business or get involved in a startup.

The premise that Q-N is positive could be flawed from the start. See, e.g. "A Whole New Mind" [http://www.amazon.com/Whole-New-Mind-Information- Conceptual/...](http://www.amazon.com/Whole-New-Mind-Information- Conceptual/dp/1573223085)

<comment><AUTHOR> _The premise that Q-N is positive could be flawed from the start._

That's an important caution, and thanks for posting the link to the book description. Whether Q-N is positive in general is, of course, an empirical question. (I'm pretty sure the general answer to that question is yes, quantitative careers outearn nonquantitative careers in the aggregate.) You make some very good points about individual preferences and particular skills that trump math skills. If I had a child who played soccer like Freddy Adu

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freddy_Adu>

and who enjoyed playing soccer, I'd only bother him about enough math homework to make sure his agent wasn't cheating him.

</comment></comment><comment><USER5> A reassuring chart:

[http://blogs.payscale.com/salary_report_kris_cowan/2008/07/l...](http://blogs.payscale.com/salary_report_kris_cowan/2008/07/list- of-best-co.html)

Computer Science and engineering students seem to get about $20,000 more in starting salary on average.

Using the data on median salaries (<http://www.payscale.com/best- colleges/degrees.asp>), the top 10 majors were all quantitative topics, with the possible exception of economics. The top majors, all quantitative, averaged between 90 and 100 thousand per year, with the non quantitative vocational majors averaging about 60-80, and the bottom tier (Sociology, Drama, ect.) averaging about 50-60. The information does not include people who attend grad school.

The 'quant premium' seems to be about $25,000 per year over other useful majors, and $40,000 per year over generic college degree.

</comment><comment><USER6> Just to tug sideways a little bit, math skills can be a form of marketing in almost every profession, even if the skills are only superficial. A person who can offer brief explanations for math concepts to lay audiences, or can compute in his head quickly, can use those abilities at the right moments to gain an incredible (albeit somewhat undeserved) level of credibility.

Between my partner and I, I often play the "technical guy" role during sales meetings, and simply multiplying fairly large numbers in my head before the client has a chance to fumble for a calculator really puts me in a position of "credible expert" by way of the Halo Effect.

It's a subtle effect, and it can easily become obnoxious, but it's worth considering.

<comment><USER7> Do you really think that multiplying large numbers in your head is knowing math well? Seriously.

Knowing math well, i.e., knowing stuff like Differential Geometry or Algebraic Topology, is anything but a form of marketing...

<comment><USER6> Clearly not. I was just using an example, and I did say it was a superficial one. My point was that signaling credibility through shows of raw math talent can be effective.

</comment></comment></comment><comment><USER8> This question exposes the flaws of quantitative economic analysis. How can you price future assets in todays dollars with unstable economic growth? inflation could be 3% a year or 30% a year depending on what the government does.

<comment><AUTHOR> _How can you price future assets in todays dollars with unstable economic growth?_

The same discount rate applies in general to both income streams in the usual calculation. It is enough to figure out how different the income streams are likely to be (very different, according to some of the links already submitted as replies here) and then get a ballpark estimate of the present value of that difference. By hypothesis, most parents substantially underinvest in ensuring their children's college readiness and math ability.

<comment><USER8> you're assuming homogenous growth rates between economic sectors. the labor market is determined by supply and demand. who knows what the proportion of CS grads:CS jobs there will be in 25 years for instance.</comment></comment></comment>