text:
Southwest Missouri lake is the state's
best-kept boating
Southwest Missouri lake is the state's
best-kept boating
Southwest Missouri lake is the state's
best-kept boating
Southwest Missouri lake is the state's
best-kept boating
Bob McEowen
Bob McEowen
Bob McEowen
Sailcloth glistens
in the sun as a flotilla of boats glides silently toward Stockton
Dam. A strong northerly wind heels the boats sharply to the right
while crew members reach out to brace themselves against the tilting
It's the
beginning of racing season at Stockton Lake and 19 sailboats compete
in a casual 10-mile race. On the water are sleek racing boats and
large cabin cruisers. All race together in a staggered-start event
that begins with steady gusts and ends with a lazy breeze.
At the
end of the day, the Stockton Lake sailing community gathers for
a barbeque to relive the race, renew friendships and catch up on
wintertime sailing excursions. Organized by the Lake
Stockton Yacht Club, the activities are the first of many scheduled throughout the
year at the Corps of Engineers reservoir that sailors say is the
best-kept secret in Missouri.
just an incredible lake for sailing," says Eric Peterson,
an investment advisor from Springfield and commodore of the yacht club,
an organization that, despite its pretentious-sounding name, exists
to promote sailing at any level on Stockton Lake.
Unlike Missouri's
other major lakes, few billboards lure travelers to Stockton
Lake, located about 50 miles northwest of Springfield. Here there
are no vacation homes, dockside bars or party coves. While the 25,000-acre
lake boasts good fishing for walleye, bass and crappie, strong
winds from Oklahoma and Kansas keep many powerboaters away.
wind can come up with no warning. If you're not in a
sailboat it can be really dangerous," Peterson says. "If
you know what you're
doing in a sailboat, it's not a problem. When the wind is up,
great, great sailing."
Shaped like a large,
inverted checkmark, Lake Stockton boasts nearly 300 miles of unspoiled
shoreline. About a third of the lake, the area located north of the
Highways 215 and 245 bridges, is accessible to sailboats. Tall masts
prevent larger boats from sailing beyond these obstacles.
have 11 miles from the dam to the 245 bridge," says Ron Barrow
of Kansas City who has sailed Stockton Lake with his wife, Judy,
since 1989. "You
clear the marina and you've got 11 miles on one tack and
you come back on another tack. It's a 25-mile loop on a sailable
area — probably
three and half, four hours. It's a great afternoon sail.
you want, you can drop a hook in a cove, stop and have lunch
and swim a little bit, raise the hook and sail on back. It makes
a great day sail," he
While casual sailing
is the rule, Stockton Lake, built in 1972, also hosts a full schedule
of organized racing and cruising events, including the annual Governor's
Cup Regatta. The event began in 1974 when then-Gov. Kit Bond's
communications director, an avid sailor, visited the new lake
and recognized its potential.
The first Governor's
Cup Regatta attracted more than 150 boats, many of them smaller
craft that could be trailered to the lake for the event.
Unusually fierce winds turned what was to be a celebration into a
near disaster as 100 boats capsized. No one drowned that day, but
rescue boats were overwhelmed picking sailors and their crews
from the water.
Subsequent Governor's
Cups have been far less dramatic but the regatta has earned recognition
as the state sailing championship. Typically about 30 boats
are entered, though few travel from distant waters. Besides
the fact that sailboats are difficult to move, most of
the state's top sailors already
berth their boats at Stockton Lake.
sailed all over the country and I can't think of a better
place that I like to sail," says Paul Nahon, vice
commodore of the Lake Stockton Yacht Club and co-coordinator
of the club's racing schedule. "I've
spent a lot of time in California and on the East Coast
but, to me, there's
no place like sailing here."
At least 300 sailboats
are moored on a semi-permanent basis at two marinas
located north of the bridges. Many of these crafts are equally
well-suited for sailing oceans as plying a Missouri
The Barrows' 40-foot
sailboat, Charmed, for example, features a roomy cabin and teak wood
appointments. The craft would be at home in any yacht club in the
world but does not look out of place in its slip at Stockton Lake.
few years ago the norm was maybe 30 feet," says Barrow. "Now
if you walk down that dock there's maybe
a dozen 36-footers and probably a dozen more in
this marina that are bigger than that. There's
several 40s."
Surprisingly, few
locals sail at Stockton Lake. Almost everyone on the water
lives in Kansas City or Springfield. But former
schoolteacher Reed Shaw says the relative unpopularity
of sailing among rural residents can be explained
by two common misperceptions. "One, people
think it's incredibly difficult
to do and, two, I think people think it's
a really expensive sport to partake in. And it's
neither one of those," he says.
to the popular image of sailing as a sport
only for the wealthy, Reed says sailboats are affordable,
especially when compared to powerboats and
lake homes.
"You take a 36-foot boat. Most people consider
that a big boat but that's
still a small lake cabin. And that's
what people use these for," says
Shaw, whose Grand Mariner Yacht Service has
been repairing and selling boats at Lake Stockton
since 1979.
"The average
guy out there today is buying a bass boat that runs 25, 30,000
dollars. If you have a fishing boat, you're
going to rent a motel room every weekend
when you're down here. You're
going to buy all your meals," Shaw
got a 26-foot used boat that's got a galley and sleeps
four people for $11,000. You can live in
it on the weekend and cook and sleep and
be totally comfortable."
Onboard accommodations
are especially important at Stockton
Lake because, like all Corps of Engineers projects,
shore development is not allowed. As
a result, social life takes place on or near
the boats. It's common to see a
bustle of activity up and down the docks
at Orleans Trail and Stockton State Park
marinas as boat owners cook steaks on
tiny grills hanging off the stern or
gather in lounge chairs on the docks.
is a lifestyle," says Ron Plymate,
who operates Orleans Trail Marina. "You
form friendships. These dock mates,
they go on vacations together. The
kids, they all grow up together."
from being exclusive, the sailing
community at Stockton Lake welcomes new members. "The
motto of the yacht club is to promote
the art of sailing, period. It doesn't
matter what you're on," says
Peterson. "Even
people who don't own sailboats
can be part of the yacht club."
help educate people about sailing,
Grand Mariner Yacht Service and Stockton
State Park Marina both offer classes
sanctioned by the American Sailing Association.
Students spend two days — much of it on the water — learning basic
operation of a sailboat, safety
guidelines and rescue procedures.
Sailing, the faithful
say, offers something hard to find at any price — a
chance to escape the workaday
world and enjoy life carried about by the wind.
"There is
nothing like sailing," says Peterson, who pilots a 29-foot
sailboat on Stockton Lake. "The
serenity, the quietness, the
fact that you're one
with the wind. It's just
a whole experience."
whose Orleans Trail Marina
includes a hotel, restaurant,
conference center, boat dealership,
repair facility and campground,
in addition to the marina store
and fuel docks, agrees.
"In our lives we go as fast as we can go trying
to get everything done. When you get on a sailboat it will only go so fast.
It forces you to sit back, put your feet up and watch the shore go by," he
says. "It's
not the destination. It's
the journey."
For information about sailing
lessons or other services call the Stockton
State Park Marina at
1-800-334-6946, Grand Mariner Yacht Service at (417) 276-4840 or
Orleans Trail Marina at (417) 276-5161.


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South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences
On-line version ISSN 2222-3436
Print version ISSN 1015-8812
S. Afr. j. econ. manag. sci. vol.14 n.4 Pretoria Jan. 2011
Measuring the impact of trade finance on country trade flows: a South African perspective
Marcel KohlerI; Adrian SavilleII
IDeparment of Economics, University of KwaZulu-Natal
IIGordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria
Trade finance (or short-term credit) plays a crucial role in facilitating international trade yet is particularly vulnerable to financial crises as banks increase the pricing on all trade finance transactions to cover increased funding costs and higher credit risks. Whereas South Africa's financial institutions largely managed to strengthen their capital positions during the global financial crisis, the country's trade flows and access to capital (in particular trade finance and its costs) were hard hit by the crisis.
Little is known about the extent of shortages or 'gaps' in trade finance and the impact of this on South Africa's recent trade performance. Whilst our research recognises that access to trade finance is not the main cause of South Africa's trade contraction, our research suggests that all else equal, a one percentage point increase in the interbank lending rate of our trade partner could reduce exports by approximately ten per cent.
Keywords: exports, trade finance, crisis
The global financial crisis of 2008 originated in the housing markets of some of the world's more advanced economies, but its effects soon spread globally, resulting in 2009 recording the lowest rate of world economic growth since World War II. The financial nature of the crisis resulted in acute stress in capital markets, including markets for debt. Indeed, in many instances sources of credit evaporated or, where credit remained available, costs of debt financing soared. The depressed economic growth outcome manifested itself in a number of ways, including a sharp decline in international trade volumes, with the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimating that world trade decreased by twelve per cent in 2009 (WTO, 2010).
South Africa's trade flows did not escape the adverse effects of the global economic downturn. The country's imports and exports went from exhibiting positive growth in the third quarter of 2008 to negative growth rates in the following two quarters (Malouche, 2009). This trend continued until the third quarter of 2009, after which growth in import and export volumes and values showed some signs of recovery (South African Reserve Bank, 2010). South Africa is not alone in this respect. In a survey conducted by the World Bank, South Africa was amongst nine countries from a sample of 14 major trading countries that experienced a drastic decline in international trade in the wake of the crisis (WTO, 2009).
Standard economic analysis would suggest that this sharp contraction in the amount of trade is the result of demand-side effects (through lower business and consumer wealth as well as lower confidence amongst spenders and investors) and supply-side effects (through various liquidity constraints curtailing trade and investment activity). Whilst both the demand- and supply-side elements demand consideration, almost no empirical work has been undertaken to explore the relationship between trade finance and trade volumes. Thus, this paper gives consideration to supply-side explanations of international trade by focusing on the role of trade finance in facilitating international trade. In this fashion, this paper hopes to address the gap in the empirical work on trade-related financing in emerging markets by seeking to assess the impact of the increased cost of trade financing associated with the global financial crisis on South Africa's international trade activity to its top trading destinations. Against this backdrop, we believe this research represents one of the first attempts to assess the impact of the increased cost of trade financing associated with the global financial crisis. Given the preliminary nature of this research, we confine our study to the more simple consideration of export flows, rather than a more sophisticated consideration of import and export flows.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. In Section 2 we present a brief review of the empirical literature followed by a discussion of the method and data used in Section 3. The empirical evidence is presented in Section 4 while the summary and the concluding remarks are presented in Section 5.
2 An overview of the literature
Liberal trade and financial policies together with technological progress have made international trade activity and developments in the financial sector engines of economic growth in modern global economies. The importance of international trade and financial flows is highlighted by their significant contributions to world output yearly. In general, international trade and financial sector liberalisation have brought enormous benefits to many countries and citizens. International trade has allowed nations to benefit from specialisation and economies to produce on a more efficient scale. It has raised productivity, supported the spread of technologies, knowledge and ideas, and enriched the range of choices available to consumers (WTO, 2010). Empirical studies support these assertions and show significant differences in the growth performance of open as opposed to closed economies (Sachs & Warner, 1995; Wacziarg & Welch, 2008). While an open trading and a liberal financial system generates considerable economic benefits, these systems are not independent of each other. International trade benefits strongly from a well developed and functioning financial environment and vice versa. By providing critical liquidity and security to enable the movement of goods and services, trade finance lies at the heart of the global trading system (Auboin & Meier-Ewert, 2008). It is often reported that some 80 to 90 per cent of all international trade transactions are financed, although the source and evidence for this claim is unclear. What is clear from history, however, is that financial crises are among the most important causes of disruptions in international trade. As Pascal Lamy (2009) put it: "... today it is clear that trade is one of the casualties of this economic crisis and that we run the risk that one of the engines of growth - in fact, one that is very important for many developing countries - stalls."
Berman and Martin (2009) help identify two specific transmission mechanisms through which international trade flows react to a financial crisis. On the demand side, an 'income effect' is identified to capture the change in demand for traded goods associated with the decreased consumption in countries affected by the down turn in economic activity during the crisis. In terms of supply, Berman and Martin (2009) identify a 'disruption effect' which has either a direct impact on inter national trade activity by reducing the amount of trade related credit available in the market, or alternatively takes on a more subtle form in that it increases the risk aversion associated with economic activity during the crisis.
Whilst economists have suggested a number of explanations for the most recent trade collapse, the consensus that has emerged, centers on a sharp contraction in global demand, namely an 'income effect', as the primary cause (WTO, 2010). According to the WTO's World Trade Report 2010 the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on international trade was magnified by the product composition of the fall in demand, by the fact that the decline was synchronised across countries and regions, and by the growth of global supply chains in recent decades. Evidence from past financial crises, however establishes a causal link between reduced credit availability to traders and declining international trade levels. Examining performance by sector in 23 historical banking crises, Iacovone and Zavacka (2009) conclude that financial problems amplify the impact of negative demand shocks on exports. The authors find evidence of slower growth in export-oriented sectors that are reliant on external financing. This result supports the notion of a 'disruption effect'.
Berman and Martin (2009) estimate that the disruption effect could account for approximately nine per cent of the decrease in exports to countries hit by the global financial crisis. They estimate that this effect is even larger for African countries, measuring 23 per cent, and that the impact lasts up to seven years after a crisis. Arguably, this outcome is explained by the fact that firms in African countries respond differently to such disruptions because they use different financing instruments than others to fulfil their financing needs (Berman & Martin, 2009). Specifically, rather than being insulated from the global financial crisis by having less developed financial sectors, firms in African countries tend to be more dependent on financing from the importing country, and are thus more vulnerable to a downturn in economic activity. In part, it is this dependence on external finance that Berman and Martin (2009) suggest, led to African exports being adversely affected by the global financial crisis.
Korinek, Le Cocguic and Sourdin (2010) identify a disruption effect similar to that of Berman and Martin (2009). Korinek et al. (2010) describe their disruption effect as consisting of a price effect and a volume effect. The price effect is primarily due to the general lack of liquidity in credit markets because of the absence of an interbank, or secondary, credit market. In turn, this results from the perceived counter-party risk amongst banks. In the case of the global financial crisis, this perception of risk drove up the overnight lending rate between banks to historically unprecedented levels, as shown by the 'TED spread' represented in Figure 1.1
The increase in interest rate spreads, captured by the TED spread, represents a general increase in the cost of financing activities that resulted from the lack of liquidity in world credit markets that came to characterise the global financial crisis.
The volume effect explains a decline in trade finance activity due to the reaction of financial institutions to the perceived risk in the market. On this score, financial institutions are assumed to respond to a perceived increase in risk in credit markets by attempting to reduce their risk exposure through the enforcement of stricter lending requirements as they seek to improve the quality of the assets on their balance sheets. In the case of the global financial crisis, the volume of credit activity also decreased due to the collapse of some financial institutions, leaving behind fewer market participants (Korinek et al., 2010). Korinek et al. (2010) find that short-term lending to firms in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries did not decline by as much as lending to firms in non-OECD countries. However, they also found that during the period of the global financial crises short-term trade finance fell by less than general short-term finance. It is arguable that this could be because of the relatively lower risk associated with trade finance.
Even though trade finance is typically short term and self liquidating in nature, the traded goods in question are often used as a form of collateral. Despite this, it remains the case that trade financing is hard hit in times of crisis. For example, at the peak of the Asian crisis (1997-1998), Argentina and Brazil experienced a 50 per cent drop in trade credits. In this vein, Korinek et al. (2010) find that during crisis, non-OECD countries experience a decline in short-term lending of four per cent more than OECD countries, which suggests that borrowers in developing countries are considered to pose a greater credit risk than borrowing firms in other countries.
The availability and cost of trade financing is strongly affected by four types of risks: economic or commercial risk, exchange rate risk, transportation risk and political risk. These risks associated with international trade are either much smaller or do not exist in domestic trade. Three factors determine the type of financial instrument chosen to deal with: the perception of the type and size of the risk involved in the transaction; the distribution of risk and risk reduction efforts between exporters, importers and their banks; and the costs of risk reduction (Fingerand & Schuknecht, 1999). The most common forms of trade finance are letters of credit, domestic bank lending and inter-firm trade credit. Letters of credit are documents issued by the importer's bank - the issuing bank - and act as a means of assuring their commitment to pay the exporters. Once a letter of credit has been issued, the exporter can redeem payment by providing the required documentation to the confirming bank. However, for the funding mechanism to function properly, it is necessary that liquidity and confidence are maintained along the chain of payment from the importer to the exporter (Humphrey, 2009). Trade finance can also take the form of an extension of credit from domestic banks or inter-firm trade credit. Domestic bank lending occurs where banks in the home country extend credit to an exporter to finance the exporter's pre- or post-shipment costs. This capital is usually loaned against particular purchases and assets. By contrast, inter-firm trade credit arises through companies providing credit to each other when buyers delay or advance payments to sellers (Humphrey, 2009).
Although the absence of an adequate trade finance infrastructure as a barrier to trade is recognised in the literature (Fingerand & Schuknecht, 1999; UNESCAP, 2005; Chauffour & Farole, 2009; Gregory et al., 2010) little empirical work has been under taken on the relationship between trade financing costs and international trade volumes specifically. Most of the research work undertaken in this area consists primarily of surveys and anecdotal data which points to the higher costs and in some cases decreased availability of trade finance during times of financial crises. An IMF-Bankers' Association for Finance and Trade (IMF-BAFT) survey of 44 banks from 23 developed and emerging markets reported a near doubling in the basis points spread over costs required to secure lines of credit or export credit insurance between October 2008 and January 2009 (IMF-BAFT 2009). The shortage of research work on the subject is most probably explained by the cost and difficulty involved in obtaining accurate information on such trade-related credit from the balance of payments of countries, as well as the fact that there are many trade financing tools and an assortment of ways in which trade financing is available to traders.
These limitations aside, Ronci (2004) con tributed to the empirical literature by using changes in outstanding external short-term credit as a proxy for trade finance to consider how constrained trade financing affects trade flows on a panel of ten countries. However, this proxy is not without its drawbacks. For instance, the method does not take into account intra-firm finance or trade related to foreign direct investment (Ronci, 2004). Thomas (2009) helpfully built on Ronci's (2004) work by including the net financial flows to emerging markets as an additional proxy for trade finance and by using a larger panel of 22 countries. Importantly, Ronci (2004) and Thomas (2009) find that trade volumes are affected positively by four common factors, namely: financial conditions; the availability of trade finance; relative prices; and changes in income. However, it was also found that whilst the availability of trade finance is a significant explanatory factor, it accounted for only a small portion of the variability in trade flows.
Whilst making important contributions to the empirical literature, the findings of Ronci (2004) and Thomas (2009) have shed little light on how firms in emerging markets may be affected by the availability of trade credit. According to Humphrey (2009) it is unclear exactly how emerging markets will be affected. While it is argued that emerging markets have benefited from large capital inflows from developed nations, it is suspected that in times of crisis these flows dry up, thereby adversely effecting the ability of firms in emerging markets to finance international trade.
The banking systems of emerging countries also are relatively underdeveloped. This may have protected banks in emerging countries from importing the toxic securities that have plagued the balance sheets of many developed nations' banks. Humphrey (2009) suggests that this insulation may go some way in mitigating the effects of global financial crisis thus allowing domestic banks to continue servicing their clients. However, in a different approach, it is this underdevelopment that Berman and Martin (2009) suggest may leave a developing nation in a more vulnerable position. These underdeveloped banking systems, unable to supply enough credit to their domestic exporters, may result in firms in emerging markets relying on lines of credit derived from the importing country. This would leave the exporters in the developing country vulnerable to liquidity concerns in the importing country.
In this vein, Chor and Manova (2009) consider the role that interbank lending rates play in determining a country's ability to export. This was done by analysing monthly import data for the US and the interbank lending rate in exporting countries. Their estimates found that a one per cent increase in the interbank lending rate is associated with an average 16 per cent decrease in trade volumes. As identified by Chor and Manova (2009), exporting activities have fixed and variable costs. The variable exporting costs include expenses such as shipping, insurance, duties and working capital. In a well-functioning financial system, exporters may turn to the domestic banks to finance these activities until such time as the revenues from the trade are earned. However, if the financial sector of the exporting country is not well developed, the exporter may be forced to rely on the financial institutions of the importing country for financing, as suggested by Berman and Martin (0029).
In the next section of this paper, we attempt to build on the work of Berman and Martin (2009) by setting out in our research the method and data employed to examine the hypothesis that traders in developing countries are dependent on the cost and availability of finance in the financial systems of their trading partners. We also adapt the approach employed by Chor and Manova (2009) to estimate a country-specific trade model. In this regard, we make use, inter alia, of South Africa's export flows to the country's major trading partners and the interbank lending rates of these countries (which serves as a proxy for the cost of trade finance) to explore the arguments set out above. By adapting the basic model of Chor and Manova (2009) to account for the cost of credit in the importing country, we endeavour to estimate the impact of changes in trade credit costs on South Africa's exports.
3 Method and data
To assess the impact of the global financial crisis on South Africa's exports through its effect on the availability of trade credit, we employ monthly data for South Africa's exports to its top 20 exporting destinations by value.2 As expected following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the value of South African exports to its major trading partners fell considerably.
In this study we examine the cost of credit in the importing country as an explanatory factor in the fall in South African exports during the global financial crisis. A direct measure of the cost of trade finance, such as the rates charged on export credit lines or insurance, would be ideal, but such data are not easily available for a large sample of countries. Following Chor & Manova (2009), we use the one-month interbank lending rate in the importing country as a proxy for the cost of short-term trade finance.3 There are pros and cons to using the interbank rate as an indicator of credit conditions. One advantage is that it is available for a relatively large number of countries, which includes both developed and a good number of trade-dependent emerging economies. However, a key qualification is that it is a meaningful measure of the cost of credit only in economies with fairly developed banking sectors, where there is an active interbank lending market. As far as lending rates goes, the one-month interbank lending rate constitutes a good general indicator of the cost of credit as it represents the rate at which commercial banks are willing to lend to one another to satisfy their reserve requirements and in adjusting their liquidity positions. For this reason, the one-month interbank lending rate is generally accepted as an indicator of the overall cost of credit within an economy. Moreover, other interest rates within an economy often are influenced by the one-month interbank lending rate or even pegged to the rate. Whilst, it is recognised widely that, in normal economic times, an increase in the interbank lending rate may indicate either limited credit availability or excess demand for credit, during times of a financial crisis, a rise in this rate is assumed to indicate a tightening in the supply of credit (Chor & Manova, 2009). Furthermore, there is a growing body of empirical work based on micro-level data which shows that more credit-constrained firms do indeed have a lower propensity for undertaking exporting activities; see Amiti and Weinstein (2009) and Mmetti and Zhu (2009) in this respect.
Figure 3 shows the interbank lending rates in the markets of South Africa's five largest export destinations for the period 2006 to 2009. At least three features are evident. First, a spike occurs early in the data series. This corresponds with the extreme jump in the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) overnight indexed swap (OIS) spread which occurred in August 2007 in advanced economies, in this case represented by the US and UK markets, that Taylor and Williams (2008) describe as a 'black swan in the money market'. The Chinese interbank lending rate spiked with a modest delay, but the jump remains significant.
Second, following these initial disturbances, the one-month interbank lending rates in China, the US and the UK began decreasing until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. By contrast, interbank lending rates in Japan and the Euro zone continued to tighten.
Third, following the second spike in interbank lending rates, central banks sought to reduce the cost of borrowing. The actions of the various monetary authorities reduced key interest rates on average to approximately one per cent, although China ran a somewhat tighter monetary policy stance amidst concerns of its economy overheating despite the dampening impacts of the global financial crisis.
History and data descriptions aside, to empirically test the hypothesis that a relationship exists between trade flows and the availability (or cost) or trade finance, we control for two additional factors, namely:
1) the Rand-US Dollar exchange rate, which is included as a proxy for 'price competitiveness' of South African exports;4,5 and
2) quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) levels in export markets, measured in domestic currency, which is used as a proxy for demand conditions in South Africa's export markets.5
In the development of our model we have adapted the approach of Chor and Manova (2009) in estimating a counties trade flows as a function of interest rates. Our method reflects that of Berman and Martin (2009) in that we hypothesise that a crisis may affect the exports of a developing country, in this case South Africa, through the pressure on the financial systems in the importing country. To test this, we construct an equation that holds that the value of South Africa's exports to an importing country, denoted by a subscript c at time t, is a function of the interest rate (namely, the one month interbank lending rate) in the importing country, as captured by the RATEct variable. As with Chor and Manova (2009) we include Dt as a time-fixed effect in an attempt to capture the time-series variation in the aggregate demand for South Africa's exports. In addition, as in Berman and Martin (2009), we introduce a dummy variable, Dcrisis, into the analysis to capture the effect of the global financial crisis in the relationship by interacting it with the interest rate variable. β1 and β2 capture the variation in exports associated with the cost of credit with Dcrisis taking on a value of zero prior to the crisis and a value of one from September 2008 onwards. The simplified version of our model is captured in Equation 1.
In order to account for exchange rate fluctuations, which may influence the demand for exports, we extend the analysis to include a variable which captures changes in competetiveness arising from fluctuations in the rand/US dollar spot exchange rate. In addition, so as to isolate the effect of supply side trade financing factors we control for the variation in demand in South Africa's export markets. We incorporate quarterly GDP data in our analysis by holding the value of the quarterly data constant over that quarter's constituent months. In so doing, we effectively control for demand variation by introducing a time specific, namely, monthly fixed effect into the analysis. This effectively assumes that monthly variation in South Africa's export demand is negligible. This is a reasonable assumption given that the quarterly variation in the GDP data is extremely small. These additions result in an extension of our model. The extended model is represented by Equation 2 which incorporates both the SA rand/US dollar spot exchange rate, CURRt and the log of the constant trade partner monthly GDP, LNGct as additional explanatory variables in the analysis.
4 Empirical results
The coefficients of the equations in our model were initially estimated using ordinary least squares with data spanning the period January 2006 to March 2010. Standard diagnostic tests were carried out on our modelled results. The presence of heteroskedasticity was confirmed using the Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test. Tests for autocorrelation and the inspection of estimated results for multicollinearity both came back negative. The method of generalised least squares with both monthly and country specific fixed effects was then applied to re-estimate the results of our model. These results are summarised in Table 1. Specifically, Table 1 captures estimates for each of the coefficients for the variables included in the two modelled equations, with standard errors shown in parenthesis.
From our initial regression results, that is Equation 1 without a dummy variable in cluded, we found a statistically significant negative relationship between the one-month interbank rate and export volumes. These results are not reported. With the inclusion of the 'crisis' dummy variable as in Equation 1, the results show that the pre-crisis relationship between interbank lending rates and exports is weaker than after the crisis. Specifically, the results imply that a one per cent rise in interest rates reduces exports by up to 10 per cent after the crisis and about seven per cent before the crisis. These results are consistent with Chor and Manova's (2009) findings and are in line with our expectations. When we included the exchange rate as part of our analysis, we find that the exchange rate is significant in explaining export values, and accounts for about five per cent of the variation in exports over the survey period, ceteris paribus. In estimating Equation 2 we include the log of monthly GDP using a constant (LNGC) transformation of the quarterly GDP data to account for the effect of changes in demand on the levels of exports. Our extended model remains robust yielding statistically significant results. As suggested by our initial estimated model results in the form of the more simplified Equation 1, an increase in interbank lending rates is thus shown to reduce South African exports. Specifically, the results suggest that a one percentage point increase in lending rates ceteris paribus reduces South African exports by 11.2 per cent. As can be seen from Table 1, this is not substantially different to our initial regressions results.
Finally, since significant time delays are often experienced in trading goods inter nationally particularly the time between when traded goods are received and when they are paid for, we also re-estimated the equations in our model by replacing the interbank lending rate, RATEct with its values lagged by one period, RATE1ct. Whilst such time delays explain why the lending rate in the previous period may affect exports in the current period, the re-estimated results using the lagged interbank lending rates were very similar to the original estimates and hence did not warrant reporting them separately.
To summarise, our estimation results are consistent with our expectations. The results suggest that during the global financial crises the increased cost of financing trade activity, as measured by the cost of interbank credit in the importing country, had a notable influence on South African exports. Specifically, the results suggest that a one percentage point increase in the interbank lending rate could reduce exports by approximately ten per cent, all else equal. Moreover, not only are higher interest rates associated with lower export volumes, this trend has been exaggerated since the onset of the global financial crisis.
5 Qualifications
Before arriving at any conclusions, two factors deserve attention.
Firstly, in this investigation we have used aggregate export data. Whilst we are of the view that this is useful at the early stages of investigation, we acknowledge that this approach fails to answer questions about the sensitivity of specific export sectors to the availability of credit. This is an important point, as Ronci (2004) found that different sectors responded with varying degrees of sensitivity to changes in the availability of trade finance. The use of more detailed export data may take us some way towards quantifying the sensitivity of South Africa's export sectors to increases in the cost of trade finance. We leave this and other issues to future research.
Secondly, the cost of domestic credit has been omitted from the above inquiry. The omission was partly based on the a priori assumption that a developing country with an underdeveloped financial sector will rely upon the financial system of its trading patter to obtain trade finance. This assumption is, perhaps too strong for the South African economy, which arguably has a developed financial sector that has fared relatively well in light of the crisis. As a result of the developed nature of South Africa's financial system it is possible that exporters may also rely upon the domestic credit market for obtaining trade finance.
In an attempt therefore to control for the omission of the effects of domestic finance costs on the volume of South Africa's exports, an alternative specification of the model has been estimated. The domestic cost of credit variable (SARATE) measured by the South African interbank lending rate is intro duced as an additional explanatory variable in Equation 3.
The inclusion of the SARATE has no significant effect on our results. The coef ficient on the SARATE variable is of concern, however. Being positive and significant, the result suggests that higher costs of domestic finance are associated with increased South African export volumes. At first glance this is a counterintuitive result. We suspect that this positive correlation between exports and the cost of credit may be an artefact of the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) response to the inflationary pressures felt within the economy. We note here that for the immediate period prior to the global financial crisis the SARB had been increasing interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. In fact, over the initial period of our investigation the South African economy was also experiencing strong aggregate demand (driven in part by rising export demand) which the SARB was trying to curtail in its efforts to reign in domestic inflation. With the onset of the global financial crisis, however, the SARB started to decrease domestic interest rates as medium-term inflation projections became more favourable. This move was made possible by the decrease in commodity prices as well as the reduction in household consump tion demand which ensued with the crisis (Mboweni, 2008). We further note that, over the period under investigation, South African inflation was always beyond the upper bound of the SARB's announced target. Given the domestic interest rate represents the preferred tool utilised by the reserve bank to control inflation, it is likely that rate changes in the past were at least in some part the SARB's response to the inflationary pressures coming from the rising export and aggregate demand in the economy (Kahn, 2008). This would go some way in explaining the positive coefficient we estimate for the SARATE variable.
In an attempt to account for any bias that the high inflation environment in South Africa may have had on our investigation and its results, the real interest rate (RR) is considered as an alternative to the nominal rate (SARATE) for the cost of domestic credit variable. Our results remain robust under this scenario with the coefficient on the real interest rate variable now negative and significant at the 10 per cent level. This result conforms closely to expectations indicating that an increase in the cost of domestic credit ceteris paribus results in a decrease in the country's exports. Importantly the inclusion of domestic credit cost measures as part of our analysis does not compromise any of our findings. Coefficient values and significance levels remain robust despite the presence of the South African interbank lending rate as a control variable.
6 Concluding remarks
The global financial crisis brought about the sharpest decline in global economic growth since World War II and, with it, acute stress in global financial markets. Whilst the slowdown in international trade that accompanied the global financial crisis might be explained by a number of factors, our hypothesis is that access to trade credit and, more specifically, the cost of credit, stands out as a key explanatory factor.
In this regard, the results of our research efforts are broadly consistent with findings of previous studies. Specifically, we find that an increase in the interbank lending rate, which represents a tightening of trade finance, reduces exports substantially. This is in line with the key findings of Chor and Manova (2009). It was also shown that South African exports appear to be heavily influenced by credit conditions in the exporting country. This is consistent with Berman and Martin (2009). Whilst these findings represent new information with regard to the performance of South Africa's export sector, the results can be advanced in a number of ways. The use of more detailed export data as well the inclusion of variables controlling for the export demand and exchange rates should help isolate the effect of rising credit costs on specific export sectors, and is a subject for future study. What
is clear, however, is that developing countries such as South Africa are vulnerable to constrained finance resulting from financial crises, which may consequently have a material impact on the performance of the export sector of the economy.
1 The TED spread represents a measure of the cost of short-term credit as it measures the difference between the US Treasury Bill interest rate and the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) (Ferson & Harvey, 1993).
2 Trade data are obtained from South Africa's Department of Trade and Industry.
3 The interbank lending rate data was obtained from Thomson Reuters DataStream database. The rates used are those of the respective importing country quoted by the central bank.
4 Although conventional wisdom holds that currency weakness promotes export competitiveness through price action, Saville (2010) offers an alternative view in the form of evidence that shows that South Africa's manufacturers, and specifically manufactured exports, do better in periods of Rand strength as opposed to Rand weakness. The argument is noted here, but not explored further.
5 The exchange rate data were obtained from DataStream; and the GDP data are sourced from the International Monetary Fund's databases.
The authors gratefully acknowledge both the Gordon Institute of Business Science and Economic Research Southern Africa for providing financial assistance towards this research.
AMITI, M. & WEINSTEIN, D. 2009. Exports andfinancial shocks. Columbia University mimeo. [ Links ]
AUBOIN, M. & MEIER-EWERT, M. 2008. Improving the availability of trade finance during financial crises. WTO Publications: Geneva. [ Links ]
BERMAN, N. & MARTIN, P. 2009. The vulnerability of sub-Saharan Africa to the financial crisis: the case of trade. Preliminary draft, May 2009. Prepared for the conference on financial markets, adverse shocks and policy responses in fragile countries; Accra, Ghana, May 21-23 2009. [ Links ]
CHAUFFOUR, J. & FAROLE, T. 2009. Trade finance in crisis: market adjustment or market failure. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5003, Washington DC. [ Links ]
CHOR, D. & MANOVA, K. 2010. Off the cliff and back? Credit conditions and international trade during the global financial crisis. Available at: VOX, www.voxeu.org. [ Links ]
DORSEY, T. 2009. Trade finance stumbles. International Monetary Fund, Finance and Development, March 2009, Washington DC. [ Links ]
FERSON, W.E. & HARVEY, C.R. 1993. The risk and the predictability of international equity returns, Review of Financial Studies, 6(3):527-566. [ Links ]
FINGERAND, K.M. & SCHUKNECHT, L. 1999. Trade, finance and financial crises. WTO Special Studies 3, WTO Publications: Geneva. [ Links ]
GREGORY, R., HENN, C., MCDONALD, B. & SAITO, M. 2010. Trade and the crisis: protect or recover. IMF Staff Position Note SPN/10/07. IMF: Washington DC. [ Links ]
HUMPHREY, J. 2009. Are exporters in Africa facing reduced availability of trade finance. Institute of Development Studies, Brighton. [ Links ]
IACOVONE, L. & ZAVACKA, V. 2009. Banking crises and exports: lessons from the past. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5016. [ Links ]
IMF-BAFT. 2009. IMF-BAFT Trade finance survey: a survey among banks assessing the current trade finance environment. Available at: http://baft.org/content folders/Issues/IMFBAFTSurveyResults20090331.ppt. [ Links ]
KAHN, B. 2008. Challenges of inflation targeting for emerging-market economies: the South African case. Challenges for Monetary Policy-Makers in Emerging Markets. South African Reserve Bank. [ Links ]
KORINEK, J., LE COCGUIC, J. & SOURDIN, P. 2010. The availability and cost of short-term trade finance and its impact on trade. OECD Trade Policy Working Papers, No. 98. OECD Publishing. [ Links ]
LAMY, P. 2009. Remarks at the United Kingdom's Department of International Development, January 22, 2009. [ Links ]
MALOUCHE, M. 2009. Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008: a World Bank survey. Policy Research Working Paper No. 5138. World Bank: Washington DC. [ Links ]
MBOWENI, T.T. 2008. Monetary policy, inflation targeting and inflation pressures. Bank for International Settlements. 22 May 2008. Available at: www.bis.org/review/r090603c.pdf (accessed 2010-10-20). [ Links ]
MINETTI, R. & CHUN ZHU, S. 2009. Credit constraints and firm export: microeconomic evidence from Italy. Michigan State University mimeo. [ Links ]
RONCI, M. 2004. Trade finance and trade flows: panel data from 10 crises. International Monetary Fund Working Paper, WP/04/225. [ Links ]
SACHS, J.D. & WARNER, A. 1995. Economic reform and the process of global integration, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1-118. [ Links ]
SAVILLE, A.D. 2010. Cents and sensibility: why a weak Rand may not help South African manufacturers. Cannon Asset Managers: Spring 2010. [ Links ]
SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK. 2010. Quarterly Bulletin: March 2010. Available at: www.reservebank.co.za/internet/Publication.nsf/LADV/92A620ACD595CF42422576EB00555EF5/$File/QBMarch2010.pdf (accessed: 2010-06-10). [ Links ]
THOMAS, A. 2009. Financial crises and emerging market trade. Strategy, Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund: Washington DC. Thomson Reuters DataStream database. Accessed: 2010-06-10. TAYLOR, J.B. & WILLIAMS, J.C. 2008. A black swan in the money market. Working Paper. No. 2008-04. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [ Links ] [ Links ]
UNITED NATIONS. 2005. Trade finance infrastructure development handbook for economies in transition. [ Links ]
UNESCAP: New York. WACZIARG, R. & WELCH, K.H. 2008. Trade liberalization and growth: new evidence. World Bank Economic Review, 22 (2):187-231. [ Links ]
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. 2009. Overview of the developments in the international trading environment. Annual Report by the Director General. WT/TPR/OV/12. 18 November 2009. [ Links ]
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. 2010. World Trade Report 2010. WTO publications: Geneva. [ Links ]
Accepted June 2011

subset: commoncrawl


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EDITOR'S NOTE: The following is an excerpt from The Land Between by Jeff Manion (Zondervan).
Welcome to the Land Between
One late November morning when I was in seventh grade, tragedy reshaped oru family and segmented time - life before the accident and life after.
During the life before the accident, my parents had served together planting churches in southeastern Idaho for fifteen years. My sister, the eldest, was thirteen. My younger brothers were nine, four, and an infant. I was twelve. My dad's father had died, and my parents were hurriedly preparing to depart for the funeral in Michigan. They would need to drive through the night to make it in time. Of the five children, four of us would be sent to stay with various friends, remaining in Idaho. Jamie, my two-month-old brother, would be traveling with my parents because Mom was nursing. They planned tobe gone for two weeks.
While sifting through a large box of family pictures last month, I discovered a handwritten note neatly penned by my mother thirty-five years ago. The information in the note provides instructions for the care of my nine-year-old brother, Jon, during my parents' trip. As I read the note, I was struck by Mom's neat penmanship and attention to detail in the enumerated list:
1. Hot lunch ticket to be paid on Monday — $2.25 a week.
2. Trash pickup is Thursday.
3. Jon's bedtime is 9:00.
4. Jon's bus comes at 8:35 in the morning and brings him home around 3:45.
5. Clean sheets are in the trunk. There are some in the family room too.
6. The timer on my dryer works opposite of what it should. If you have a large load, set it for about 10 minutes; if just a small load, set it for 50 - 60.
7. Our doctor in Poky [Pocatello, Idaho] is Dr. Brydon, but we also go to Dr. Thurson here in Blackfoot. It would probably be easier for you to take him to Dr. T. if he needs a doctor.
Thanks so much for helping out this way. We'll probably call a couple times to see how things are going. We're supposed to get home Dec. 15. That's a long time to be gone!
That night, on Interstate 80 in western Nebraska, our family van veered off the road and rolled several times as it crossed the median before coming to rest. My father and baby brother sustained minor injuries. Mom was thrown from the van and died hours later at the hospital in a nearby town.
We were not ready to lose her. I was not ready to lose her.
The terms dizzying or disorienting do not carry the weight of our experience as I try to adequately depict the emotional swirl of those days. The heart had been removed from our house.
Mom had always been at home when I ran down the streetfrom the bus stop after school and flew through the front door.
Our yellow house on Jewell Street was a split-level home where the landing opened to stairways leading both up and down.
My daily entrance ritual began with yelling an announcement from the landing that I was home. I think I did this to discern whether Mom was upstairs or down. After the accident, I found myself mindlessly reenacting this routine from years of habit. Up the driveway, through the door, "Mom! I'm home!"
And then the deafening silence slapped me with the reality that she was gone.
A few months after the accident, my father accepted a position as a teacher and administrator of a small Bible college, and our family moved to East Grand Rapids, Michigan.
It is an affluent community with old brick homes, manicured lawns, and mature trees. Dad found a great buy on a nice house not far from his work, so we landed there. Socially, I did not belong.
Junior high can be awful in any town, and I could have been awkward almost anywhere. This just happens to be the setting where my awkwardness was overexposed due to my cultural illiteracy. Blackfoot, Idaho, where I had spent my grade school years, had simply not prepared me for statusconscious East Grand Rapids.
From a fashion standpoint, the footwear of choice was a specific brand of deck shoe, which I had never even seen before entrance into East Grand Rapids Middle School, gracefully perched beside Reeds Lake. Until designer jeans became the rage, straight-leg Levis were the preference. I was the kid from Idaho, wearing Wrangler jeans that were too short, Keds sneakers, and the same shirt to school every day.
Soon after our arrival to Michigan, Dad became engaged and married a young secretary and recent graduate of the Bible college where he served. Carolyn was twenty-one when she became mother to two preschoolers, a grade-schooler, and two teenagers. Carolyn has one of the most gracious spirits I have ever encountered. She is cheerful and caring, and she was a godsend to our family. Little imagination is required, however, to guess that the transition from single secretary to wife and mother of five was a bit rough.
I spent eighth grade trying to regain my balance. By the end of ninth grade, I was beginning to figure things out a bit. I changed shirts with greater regularity, I no longer wore Wranglers, and I had a few friends. I was hopeful that things might work out after all. Then, at the end of ninth grade, Dad informed us that we would be moving to Sacramento, California. I was livid. I couldn't believe I had to start the whole process all over again.
The sequence of transitions was jarring. I had begun seventh grade securely nestled in a small western town where I had spent all my grade school years. Three years, one funeral, one wedding, and two cross-country moves later, I was beginning my sophomore year in Sacramento.
I have often reflected on this season of profound disorientation and chaos. I have also reflected on God's movement and mercy during this difficult time of upheaval and transition. I suspect that this season we endured as a family enlarged my heart for others passing through similar periods of difficult transition. I was in the Land Between.
The Land Between
Tom sits in the silence of his unlit living room. It is after midnight and the kids are asleep. Today was the scheduled closing on a house, and today the closing was canceled. Not postponed, canceled. The deal fell apart. He sits in the darkness repeating the number that robs him of sleep. Three houses, he thinks to himself. I've sold three houses this year. Two years ago I closed on twenty-seven homes, a house every two weeks. How much longer can I do this? How much longer can we continue to drain our retirement account to pay monthly bills? Should I find a second job until things turn around? What if things don't turn around for years? I feel like I'm bleeding cash, pillaging our future to survive the present. And if I get out of real estate sales, what else am I good at? What else could I possibly choose as a new career?
"Three houses," he whispers aloud. This is the Land Between — where life is not as it once was, where the future is in question.
Karen fumbles for the phone in a sleepy haze. The red numerals on the alarm clock read 3:17. In the moment before "Hello," she takes a quick mental inventory: Are all the kids home? She is conscious enough to reason that either someone has dialed a wrong number or the family is about to receive some awful news. "Hello," she mumbles. The room spins as she hears the voice of her sister on the other end: "Karen, there's been an accident."
Tonight Karen will be hurled from her normal routine of work, church, and tennis into the land of all-night hospital vigils, an intensive care unit, and lengthy rehabilitation.
This is the Land Between — where everything normal is interrupted.
For many of us, the journey into the Land Between comes suddenly, like Karen's experience or my own, with a conversation that drops into our lives like an exploding bomb.
"Your position has been eliminated."
"I don't love you anymore."
"The tumor is malignant."
"The church elders are meeting to take a vote of confidence."
"Mom, Dad, I'm pregnant."
"I'm having second thoughts about the wedding."
"Dad, uh . . . I'm at the police station."
"Your mother and I are getting a divorce."
"We're moving."
"We think Mom's had a stroke. How soon can you get to the hospital?"
In a sentence we are ripped from normality and find ourselves in a new world, as if thrown from a moving train. We tumble into the world of the unemployed. We are hurled into the land of the suddenly single, the valley of the grieving, the new vocabulary of chemotherapy, or the weekly routine of nursing home visits. In our more confident, faith-filled moments, we know that we will regain our footing and find some kind of balance in a new normal, but for now we are simply and suddenly "between" and at a loss as to how to navigate the terrain.
While some enter the land shockingly, others experience a gradual, almost imperceptible entry, like Tom the real estate agent. A marriage suffers slow but constant erosion over the years before somebody walks out. The heart of a teenager drifts slowly away from her parents and from God. Key employees are released and assets are sold off as sales figures dip steadily quarter after quarter until the company is only a shadow of what it had been eight years earlier. A parent experiences gradual memory loss, and with it her independence fades little by little. Many of us entered the Land Between not with a sudden cataclysmic conversation but with the slow march of time. And yet regardless of how we enter this space, whether jarringly or gradually, the landscape is much the same.
Ada Bible Church
For more than twenty-five years, I have had the privilege of pastoring the people of Ada Bible Church in suburban Grand Rapids, Michigan. My core gifting and joy is that of digging deeply into the story of the Bible and then presenting this story, the journey of God and his people, in a way that I hope encourages life transformation. As I stand and open the Scriptures each weekend, I am often conscious of the array of chaos represented in the room. Weekly, I have the unspeakable privilege of bringing the story of God to the recently unemployed and to the terminally ill, to parents whose sons are in prison and to those who long to be parents but remain childless.
Unbelievably, my calling is to speak God's mercy into the lives of those whose engagements have just fallen through or whose homes refuse to sell, to offer hope to those who may have just lowered the casket of a husband, wife, brother, sister, or child into the soil.
I firmly believe that the Land Between — that space where we feel lost or lonely or deeply hurt — is fertile ground for our spiritual transformation and for God's grace to be revealed in magnificent ways. But in addition to being the bearer of mercy, I also have the privilege of challenging God's people to holiness, and while the Land Between is prime real estate for faith transformation, it is also the space where we can grow resentful, bitter, and caustic if our responses are unguarded.
The wilderness where faith can thrive is the very desert where it can dry up and die if we are not watchful.
The narrative in the Bible where we most clearly see this dynamic played out is in the desert wanderings of the Israelites.
The season in the wilderness occurs after the sons and daughters of Jacob have been released from slavery in Egypt and before they reach the Promised Land. The story is near the beginning of the Bible and chronicles some of the first fumbling steps of the Israelites as a people.
As we drop in to observe their distressing reaction to their desert conditions, we will glean insight into the unique challenges, temptations, and opportunities of the Land Between. As we move through the desert story together, I will pull in additional portions of Scripture that can provide added guidance as we make our way through these undesired transitions.
The drama that unfolds before us includes a leader at the point of emotional collapse, a rancorous people spewing disheartened complaint, God's gracious provision for the one, and his swift, harsh discipline — which is also his mercy — for the other. As we dive into the story, we will find ourselves encouraged and warned, comforted at some points and rebuked at others. It is my sincere hope that we emerge from the narrative desiring to be, as God intends, people of deeper faith. A faith worth having.
This book is not intended to be a how-to manual on locating a swift exit ramp from the Land Between. I will not give counsel on career selection, job hunting, or debt management. I offer no advice on changing the heart of your rebellious teenager or the behavior patterns of your husband or wife. Instead, consider me your tour guide who will describe the terrain of the Land Between so we can travel through it with greater skill and grace, arriving on the other side with a deeper, richer faith.
My desire is to portray the challenges and opportunities that are unique to life in the desert. For instance, we will have to wrestle with some critical questions along the way: Is it possible to possess a vital faith that prompts you to be at your best when things are at their worst? Is it possible for the best version of you — whom God created — to emerge while you are passing through a season of profound disappointment, unnerving chaos, or debilitating pain?
The Land Between can be profoundly disorienting. It also provides the space for God to do some of his deepest work in our lives. Many seasoned spiritual advisers propose that this is the only space in which radical, transformational growth occurs. God intends for us to emerge from this land radically reshaped. But the process of transformational growth will not occur automatically. Our response to God while in the Land Between is what will determine whether our journey through this desert will result in deep, positive growth or spiritual decline.
People often quote a common proverb in time of pain and tragedy: "Time heals all wounds." I do not find this statement to be necessarily true. Some people heal over time, while others become deeply embittered and acidic. The Land Between usually forces us to choose one way or the other. The conditions can prove so harsh that there seems little room for neutrality.
While offering us a greenhouse for growth, the Land Between can also be a desert where our faith goes to die — if we let it. The habits of the heart that we foster in this space — our responses and reactions — will determine whether the Land Between results in spiritual life or spiritual death. We choose.
Copyright © 2010 by Jeff Manion
This title is also available as a Zondervan ebook.
Visit www.zondervan.com/ebooks.
This title is also available in a Zondervan audio edition.
Visit www.zondervan.fm.
Requests for information should be addressed to:
Zondervan, Grand Rapids, Michigan 49530


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She will touch you with fingers so cold you will wonder why ice wasn't named after her yet she will set your skin ablaze. She will look at you like art piece. Analyze every crease on your face when you laugh and every grimace when something displeases you.
She will look at you like a path that keeps unfolding and she's treading blind. Oblivious of what's to come but woefully expectant of what's ahead. She will explore you. She will show you what's its like to be loved as a poet loves its poem.
And believe me, she will love you like a poem.
She's the type to turn you into poetry.
She will see into your eyes and imagine a thousand stars bursting; into dreams that are made up of all that you are, all that you were and all that you are suppose to be. She will consider you a galaxy with shooting stars and meteor showers.
You will tell her things and she will listen to you. And she will stare at you until you tell her how her gaze is so unnerving. But she's only looking at you like words that are left unsaid because nobody has been courageous enough to write them down on paper yet. Because those are the words not everybody can imagine writing every day.
So she will love you like a poet but you will have to love her back like a poem; gently, kindly and courageously. For a broken heart might shoot ink into her veins but it will kill a part of her, that she will never be able to recover again.
People like her lose their pieces one by one until one day they find themselves empty. After all there is a reason, why poets die young.


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Older Americans in Poverty: A Snapshot
Older Americans in Poverty: A Snapshot, is a chartbook and policy primer that examines the persistent problem of elderly poverty in the United States. This chartbook provides valuable data on older adults in poverty—who they are, where they live, and the challenges they face affording basics like food, housing, and health care. It describes the reliance of older poor and low-income families on Social Security, their use of public benefits, and their assets.
The chartbook highlights wide variation in poverty rates by race and ethnicity, age, sex, and marital status. For example, despite the sizable overall decline in elderly poverty since the 1960s, poverty remains unacceptably high for many, including older black and Hispanic women, more than a third of whom have incomes below poverty or just above the poverty line.
The chartbook also examines the problems with the official poverty statistic. It explains what's wrong with the current measure and describes the proposal to modernize the poverty measure to provide a more accurate assessment of how many people—including older adults—face severe economic hardship. The chartbook closes with a discussion of policy options for reducing poverty at older ages.


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Reply 140 of 224, by leileilol
- Rank
- l33t++
who wants dosbox on a 486er ?
Those who want XT era games linked to timer. Maybe 286 level is possible too. Those who want CGA composite, Tandy music, etc nontypical hardware. Those who have other compatibility issues wich DOSBox may possibly overcome. Those who want booter games and don't want to write floppies for them.
It's not even obligatory to setup Win9x to use DOSBox, as it works in HX DOS Extender. But in Win9x it may to work faster.
🙄 *facepalm*
DOSBox is barely even usable on a Pentium MMX for XT-era CGA games, and even then you still have to use a large frameskip, and that's not even accounting the cpu usage horror that is OPL2 emulation even when using passthrough, nevermind the not-as-optimized emulation for any other synthesizer sound device.


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LIVINGSTON, N.J. (Sept. 14, 1:45 p.m. ET) — Inteplast Group is expanding its commercial can-liner footprint in North America with the purchase of Pitt Plastics Inc. of Pittsburg, Kan.
Pitt will become part of Inteplast's Integrated Bagging Systems Division. The acquisition includes Pitt's facilities in Kansas; Morrow, Ga.; and Columbus, Ohio. Financial terms were not disclosed.
"With this acquisition, the combined organizations will be the most complete bag producer in the marketplace. We see this as an investment in people and technology," Inteplast IBS Division President Joe Chen said in a news release.
Inteplast President John Young said Pitt's products complement IBS can-liner offerings and geographical locations. IBS currently has can-liner plants in Lolita and Garland, Texas; and Prattville, Ala.
Pitt will continue full operations to serve the North American market, according to Inteplast.
Inteplast does an estimated $1.5 billion in North American film and sheet sales, according to Plastics News estimates. Pitt pegs its 2011 polyethylene can-liner and bag sales at $154 million and its total number of employees at 447.
"As manufacturing technology continues to evolve, we are excited to have the technological resources and distribution channels of Inteplast working with us," said Pitt President Jeff Poe.
Inteplast operates 33 plants and 10 warehouse facilities throughout North America. It was founded in 1991 and operates two other divisions besides IBS: AmTopp, which produces biaxially oriented polypropylene films, stretch wrap films and plastic concentrates and compounds; and World-Pak, which makes corrugated plastic sheet, solid and expanded PVC sheet, heavy-duty films and bags, and synthetic wood.
Based in Livingston, N.J., Inteplast operates a major manufacturing complex in Lolita covering 535 acres. The combined capacity of that site exceeds 1 billion pounds of finished goods annually, according to Inteplast.
Young said he hopes to continue the legacy started by Gene Bicknell, his son Marty, and their families in the building of Pitt Plastics. Both companies share "humble roots," he said.
"We are also excited to have found a partner that shares our commitment to ensuring quality manufacturing jobs for American workers," Young said.
In August, Inteplast acquired the Minigrip resealable PE bag business of Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Minigrip, based in Kennesaw, Ga., makes bags for consumer and commercial uses, including for the food-service, medical and institutional markets.


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- Wet-into-Wet Watercolor
- Painting the First Washes
- Runny washes
Wet-into-Wet Watercolor
From The Painter 7 Wow! Book, by Cher Threinen-Pendarvis
Overview Make a "pencil sketch"; loosely paint smooth washes with Water Color brushes to build up varied color; add subtle wet-into-wet bristle marks; add details to the image and create a speckled texture using Salt.
By Cher Threinen-Pendarvis
Pink Orchid, a loose digital water color study, was painted from life in Painter 7 with a Wacom Intuos pressure-sensitive tablet and stylus. Water Color wet-into-wet techniques were used, then details and texture were added. Wet-into-wet is a traditional technique that can be simulated using Painter 7's new Water Color technology. Wet-into-wet is the most þuid way to apply color, as it involves keeping the paper wet while new color is applied, so new colors blend with existing moist paint. Painter 7 offers the þexibility of new Water Color media layers, making the medium much more versatile than in previous versions of the program.
1 Setting up and opening a new file. For the best performance, Macintosh users may need to increase the RAM that is allotted to Painter when working with Water Color.
Begin by creating a new file with a white background (File, New). In the New dialog box, click the Image button. For a square format, set the Width and Height at 675 x 675 pixels. Click OK. (The brush sizes that you'll use will depend on the pixel size of the document.)
Figure 1 Starting a new file for the Orchid painting
2 Making a pencil sketch. Choose a natural-looking grain (such as Cold Press Water Color) from the Papers section of the Art Materials palette. Choose a neutral gray color in the Colors section of the Art Materials palette and select the 2B Pencils variant of Pencils (in the Brushes palette) to draw your line sketch. We set up our blooming orchid plant next to the computer and sketched from life.
Figure 2 The pencil sketch drawn in Painter using the 2B Pencil variant of Pencils
Setting brush tracking


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Specialized Music?
Chat and ask questions about the RPG Maker Mode here.
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Specialized Music?
Is it possible to have music play only at certain events and have the music stop when these events end? like when a enemy comes up to you to attack it plays a song but when the enemy is defeated it fades this music out. or Main Menu music? or Death sounds?
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All fresco: Taking farm-to-table literally
"Our carbon footprint," says our waiter at a recent dinner at Zinc, "is pretty low from there to there."
He's pointing out the bed of herbs, peas, and other edibles growing around the perimeter of the outdoor dining area at the West Main Street restaurant. This by-the-seats garden was actually installed three years ago, but this was our first experience seeing the restaurant's resident farmer in action.
The farmer is Laura McGurn, who sports her title with as much pride as she sports an orange shirt advertising The Spice Diva, the new food flavoring station in the nearby Main Street Market. During our recent meal, McGurn was carefully harvesting but stopped by the table to see if we had any questions (and ask why we were snapping photos.)
More SnapsRead more on: zinc restaurant


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The HD Night Sights were specifically created to address the needs of tactical shooters. The three dot green tritium night sight set's front sight features a taller blade and an aiming point ringed in photoluminescent paint while the rear sight is outlined in black and features a wider U-shaped notch. This unique configuration increases visibility and quickens front sight acquisition—even in transitional lighting. Additionally, the front surface of the rear sight is steeply hooked to assist in emergency one-handed slide operation. The HD Night Sights are designed to shine—even in the most demanding conditions. Green tritium lamps are warranted for 12 years from date of manufacture.
Glock 42 HD Night Sight Set, Green w/ Yellow Front Outline- Has an aiming point ringed in yellow photoluminescent paint.
Glock 42 HD Night Sight Set, Green w/ Orange Front Outline- an aiming point ringed in orange photoluminescent paint .
"GLOCK" is a federally registered trademark of Glock, Inc. and is one of many trademarks owned by Glock, Inc. or Glock Ges.m.b.H. Brownells is an independent dealer of parts and accessories for Glock® pistols, and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Glock, Inc. or Glock Ges.m.b.H. The use of Glock on this page is merely to advertise the sale of Glock parts or components. As indicated in the product descriptions, not all parts and accessories on this site are official Glock products.
Specs: Green tritium lamps are warranted for 12 years from date of manufacture. The CA128O HD Night Sights fit the 1911 Novak Dovetail Cut Models. The fronts are .330" x 65 degree dovetail. The rears (Fixed LoMount Carry) are .495" x 65 degree dovetails
Mfr Part: 600538
Sight Color: Green, Orange
Style: 3-Dot, HD, Night Sight, Tritium, ...
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Mfr Part: 600540
Sight Color: Green, Yellow
Mfr Part: 600543
Sight Color: Green/Orange
Style: 3-Dot, Tritium
Mfr Part: 600545
Style: 3-Dot, HD, Tritium
Mfr Part: 600784
Sight Color: Green/Yellow
Style: 3-Dot, Night Sight, Tritium, U-Notch, Wide-Notch
Mfr Part: 600785
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Learn All Year Long
Kids and teens should read and write even when they are out of school. Why is this so important?
ReadWriteThink has a variety of resources for out-of-school use. Visit our Parent & Afterschool Resources section to learn more.
Home › Parent & Afterschool Resources › Activities & Projects
Writing Fanfiction
Activity Description
When you're a fan of a particular book or series of books, it can be hard to reach that last page and know it will all soon be over. With fanfiction, it doesn't have to be! Fanfiction is fiction written by admirers of a certain work or genre, anything from fantasy to comedy to romance. While keeping close to the spirit of the original, fanfiction allows children to explore their favorite stories by borrowing characters, plot elements, and settings and using them in their own creative writing process.
Why This Is Helpful
Writing fanfiction helps children sharpen literacy skills in many ways. First, it encourages children to think more deeply about a book or story they have read, considering character dynamics and motives, plot techniques, and the role of setting and mood. Second, it allows children to engage in the creative process but gives them established characters and settings as the basis for their own fictional work. Finally, writing fanfiction can be a highly motivating experience, even for the most reluctant writers, because children are able to model their work after a piece they admire and enjoy.


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Jokes aside, this could conceivably be a good thing, this lunch, and Romney can make a useful citizen of himself if he agrees to try to play some kind of moderating role in the Republican Party. Of course, Republicans will just not listen to him, and in a way why should they, but he's still one of the country's best-known Republicans, and while he lost handily he did come semi-reasonably close to becoming the president of the United States.
In other words, he has more juice with broader public than Mitch McConnell or John Boehner, each of whom would have won about 41 percent of the vote in a presidential election. Romney got (ain't it delicious!?) 47 percent.
So what could he do? I assume Obama is attempting to enlist him to try to get him to say a few constructive things nudging the GOP toward sanity on some fiscal matters. Of course that's a little hard for him to do considering the non-sane positions he took during the campaign. But it would be nice to hear him say some of those reasonably sensible things that so many insiders persuaded themselves he really believes deep down.
In fact, all this raises an interesting Romney character question. Now that he's done with politics, will he ever just say what he actually believes about anything beyond the "moocher class," the only matter on which he seemed to make his genuine views known? Will anyone care? Maybe. Al Gore and John Kerry lost presidential elections, but they're still important figures (obvious Gore is the better parallel here, since Kerry still holds office). Romney can be, too, if he wants to be. He could start this week by telling Republicans, hey, gang, let's drop the unceasing obstinacy.


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You may need this approval if you intend to place furniture, including plants in pots or containers, on the footpath.
A licence defines the need to obtain recognition / certification and registration to undertake a certain business activity.
Once off.
Variable; refer to your local Council.
Contact your local Council for details to be submitted.
District Council of Tumby Bay
Contact Email, Phone and Address Details for this service in simple two column table format, header then data.
District Council of Tumby Bay


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Thank you to my gourmet niece Shirley Dana, who continues to inspire me with her fantastic recipes!
S'mores Brownie Bites
"Hi, its Shirley from Homebaked, and I'd like to share a fun, easy recipe that is great for topping off any meal. While I make these bite-size treats with my favorite from-scratch brownie recipe, you can simply use a box of Duncan Hines Chewy Fudge Brownie mix (with a little extra chocolate chips) with equally scrumptious results."
Smore's Brownie Bites
(makes about 48 mini brownie cups)
Graham Cracker Crust:
- 1 ½ cups crushed graham crackers
- 6 tbs melted margarine
- 1 box of Duncan Hines Chewy Fudge Brownie mix
- ¼ cup water
- ½ cup vegetable oil
- 2 large eggs
- ¼- ½ cup chocolate chips
- Mini marshmallows
- Marshmallow Fluff
Preheat oven to 350.
Spray mini muffin trays liberally with cooking spray. (You can also use regular size muffin trays, but baking time will be longer, and you will probably get about 15 cupcakes out of the recipe).
To make crust
Simply mix the crumbs and the melted margarine together by hand. Drop about a teaspoon of the crumb mixture into each sprayed muffin cup. Using the back of a knife (or your fingers), carefully press the crumb mixture down until each cup has a flat, compact cookie crust at its bottom. (Save any leftover crumbs, as you will use them for on top of the brownies). Bake the crusts for about 3-5 minutes.
For the kosher brownies
Combine the brownie mix, water, eggs and oil together in a large bowl. Mixing vigorously until you have a smooth, shiny batter. Add the chocolate chips and mix to combine.
Drop the brownie batter by the spoonful into the muffin trays on top of the baked crusts. Don't be afraid to fill the cups to the top, as these brownies rise little while baking. Sprinkle each brownie with remaining graham cracker crumbs.
Bake for 10-13 minutes. Brownies should have a nice domed top and crackly top, and a toothpick inserted into center should come out with a few moist crumbs. (Just be careful not to over bake these… you don't want hard brownies! If you are not sure if your brownies are ready, take them out a bit before they seem to be fully baked).
Let brownies cool in pan before carefully removing each one with a sharp knife.
To finish
Using a tiny bit of marshmallow fluff as glue, simply adhere 3-5 marshmallows to the top of each brownie. You can leave the brownies like this, or you can toast the marshmallows with a kitchen torch for a true campfire feel. Top with cinnamon.
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What would a society or culture be like that was actually based on the teachings of the Bible? The popular Christian author, C. S. Lewis, in his book Mere Christianity, described it this way:
All the same, the New Testament, without going into details, gives us a pretty clear hint of what a fully Christian society would be like. Perhaps it gives us more than we can take. It tells us that there are to be no passengers or parasites: if man does not work, he ought not to eat. Everyone is to work with his own hands, and what is more, every one's work is to produce something good: there will be no manufacture of silly luxuries and then of sillier advertisements to persuade us to buy them. And there is to be no "swank"1 or "side,"2 no putting on airs. To that extent a Christian society would be what we now call Leftist. On the other hand, it is always insisting on obedience -- obedience (and outward marks of respect) from all of us to properly appointed magistrates, from children to parents, and (I am afraid this is going to be very unpopular) from wives to husbands. Thirdly, it is to be a cheerful society: full of singing and rejoicing, and regarding worry or anxiety as wrong. Courtesy is one of the Christian virtues; and the New Testament hates what it calls "busybodies."
If there were such a society in existence and you or I visited it, I think we should come away with a curious impression. We should feel that its economic life was very socialistic and, in that sense, "advanced," but that its family life and its code of manners were rather old-fashioned -- perhaps even ceremonious and aristocratic. Each of us would like some bits of it, but I am afraid very few of us would like the whole thing. That is just what you would expect if Christianity is the total plan for the human machine. We have all departed from that total plan in different ways, and each of us wants to make out that his own modification of the original plan is the plan itself. You will find this again and again about anything that is really Christian: Everyone is attracted by bits of it and wants to pick out those bits and leave the rest. That is why we do not get much further: and that is why people who are fighting for quite opposite things can say they are fighting for Christianity.3
C. S. Lewis died knowing that he had not found the life he described here. He understood with the mind how things should be, but he never experienced it. What about you? Have you found the abundant life that Yahshua, the Son of God, promised? We hope that what you read in this paper will kindle a hope in you that such a life does exist in the Communities of the Twelve Tribes, and that you can be a part of it.
The Twelve Tribes is a confederation of twelve self-governing tribes, composed of self-governing communities. We are disciples of the Son of God whose name in Hebrew is Yahshua. We follow the pattern of the early church in Acts 2:44 and 4:32, truly believing everything that is written in the Old and New Covenants of the Bible, and sharing all things in common.
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A blog on biology, psychology, cognition, learning, memory, aging, and everything in between. Explaining recent discoveries in neuroscience, translated to language we can all understand!
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Riverside, Maps - Property
The 'Riverside, Maps - Property' file is part of the Edwin Noel Pennebaker Mining Collection. Edwin Noel Pennebaker received a B.S. in economic geology from University of California at Berkeley in 1924 and later went on to graduate studies. From the mid 1920s until the mid 1980s, he worked mainly as a consulting geologist for numerous companies around the globe. During the period 1935 to 1976, he consulted for a number of companies in Arizona, including Phelps Dodge, Miami Copper Company, The American Metal Company, National Lead Company, Consolidated Coppermines Corporation, and others. After 1985, he was Director Emeritus of Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation, Wallace, ID. This collection of economic geologic reports focuses strictly on Arizona.