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Blu Tuesday: True Detective, Non-Stop and Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit
Every Tuesday, I review the newest Blu-ray releases and let you know whether they're worth buying, renting or skipping, along with a breakdown of the included extras. If you see something you like, click on the cover art to purchase the Blu-ray from Amazon, and be sure to share each week's column on Facebook and Twitter with your friends.
WHAT: In 1995, Louisiana detectives Rust Cohle (Matthew McConaughey) and Marty Hart (Woody Harrelson) track down the disturbed murderer of a young woman while dealing with personal issues that threaten to interfere with the case. 17 years later, a similar murder brings the two cops back together when their original case is reopened for investigation.
WHY: Few shows have had such a spellbinding effect on its audience like HBO's "True Detective," the gritty crime drama that feels more like an eight-hour movie than a limited TV series. That's because everything about the show is incredibly cinematic, from the smart writing by creator Nic Pizzolatto, to the brilliant direction by Cary Fukunaga, to Adam Arkapaw's gorgeous cinematography. This is the kind of show that requires absolute patience and trust in the storytellers, opting for a slow-burning pace that allows the characters to evolve naturally over the course of its time-jumping narrative. Unlike most crime dramas, the mystery surrounding the killer's identity is never as important as Rust and Marty's respective arcs, and that's what makes it such rich and gripping television. Well, that and two knockout performances by Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, who deliver some of the best work of their careers as the strikingly different partners. They elevate "True Detective" from a damn good drama to one that will be remembered as one of the greatest shows of its time, and while that kind of praise only heaps even more pressure on Pizzolatto for Season Two, if the first season is anything to go by, he's definitely up for the challenge.
EXTRAS: In addition to a pair of audio commentaries with creator Nic Pizzolatto, composer T Bone Burnett and executive producer Scott Stephens, there's a making-of featurette, interviews with Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, deleted scenes and more.
WHAT: While on a transatlantic flight from New York to London, air marshal Bill Marks (Liam Neeson) receives a series of text messages threatening to kill a passenger every 20 minutes unless $150 million is transferred into an off-shore account. But when it's made to look like Marks is the one hijacking the plane, he must find the real culprit before it's too late.
WHY: Liam Neeson has certainly made a go of this whole action star phase over the last few years, but even he must be growing tired of playing what's essentially the same character over and over again. Granted, "Non-Stop" doesn't have nearly as much action as its trailers would lead you to believe, but just like "Unknown," Jaume Collet-Serra's previous collaboration with Neeson, it's a disappointing attempt to cash in on the success of the "Taken" franchise. For as ridiculous as the premise may be (and it becomes even more so as the story progresses), "Non-Stop" does a good job of building suspension by throwing an almost endless barrage of red herrings at the audience. The bad guy could pretty much be anyone on the plane – from Julianne Moore's chatty passenger, to Michelle Dockery's meek stewardess, to Corey Stoll's no-nonsense NYPD cop – and Collet-Serra makes the most of that paranoia. Where "Non-Stop" fails, however, is in its last-ditch effort to suddenly become an action movie in the final act, letting out all the mounting tension like air from a balloon.
EXTRAS: There's a pair of short featurettes covering various aspects of production, but sadly, that's the extent of the bonus material.
WHAT: When CIA analyst Jack Ryan (Chris Pine) uncovers a Russian plot to crash the U.S. economy with a terrorist attack, he's sent into the field for his very first mission. But after his fiancée (Kiera Knightley) arrives in Moscow unannounced, Jack must keep her out of harm's way as he attempts to defuse the threat against the country he swore to protect.
WHY: Unlike James Bond or Batman, it's hard to imagine that a Jack Ryan reboot (especially one packaged as an origin story) was in very high demand, but that didn't stop Paramount from making it anyway. After all, franchises are a hot commodity these days, and the studio apparently has so much faith in Chris Pine that they've entrusted him with yet another iconic character despite already playing Captain Kirk in the new "Star Trek" films. It's not that the actor is necessarily bad for the role – he can be extremely charming at times and has proven himself adept at action – but the casting is uninspired to say the least. However, Kevin Costner (as Ryan's mentor) and Kenneth Branagh (pulling double duty as the film's villain) are both enjoyable in supporting roles, while Keira Knightley does the best she can with an underwritten character. The only reason the actress likely even bothered with such a rote action thriller was the chance to work with Branagh, and although the director isn't exactly in top form here, he makes "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit" a lot more entertaining than it deserved to be.
EXTRAS: The Blu-ray release includes an audio commentary with director Kenneth Branagh and producer Lorenzo di Bonaventura, six deleted scenes, a retrospective on the Jack Ryan franchise, a profile on Branagh and more.
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Posted in: Entertainment, Movies, Television
Tags: Blu Tuesday, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, new Blu-rays, Non-Stop, True Detective: Season One


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subset: commoncrawl


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Just wanted to share a funny webpage I made as a friend of mine just bought a new car. I wondered If I could create a "change colour of car" webpage, and with Xara Designer Pro 7 it was easy.
I just did some masks and made named layers which I added a click action on and exported the website to my website :-)
Here you can see it: http://www.netsi.dk/xara/bil/


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Greenville Law Office
Personal Injury Lawyers Serving Greenville, North Carolina
Thank you for visiting the Greenville, North Carolina (Pitt County) page of our website. Our Greenville office exists to assist those who have experienced an NC work related injury or an NC personal injury (NC car accident, truck accident, motorcycle accident or victim of drunk driving) in or around Greenville, NC. We also assist people who have been denied Social Security disability benefits or wish to file Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) applications in NC.
If you've been injured in a Greenville car accident or Greenville motorcycle accident, you can rely on an experienced attorney for legal guidance. We also assist people who have been denied Social Security disability benefits or wish to file Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) applications in NC. Don't hesitate to contact our lawyers for help with a Greenville Workers' Comp, Greenville Social Security claim or Greenville personal injury claim
The lawyers in our firm have more than 250 years of combined legal experience. Please click here to read more about our Greenville law office location.
Several of the attorneys in the Personal Injury Department have at least 10 years of legal experience, and several have 15 years or more. The team also has members who formerly worked as defense attorneys for insurance companies, so they have seen the law from both sides.
Two of the attorneys in our Workers' Compensation Department served in the North Carolina Industrial Commission (NCIC) before joining the Law Offices of James Scott Farrin. Several are Board Certified Specialists in Workers' Compensation Law. Board Certified Specialists are recognized by the North Carolina State Bar as having special knowledge and proficiency in their practice area.
The head of our Social Security Department is a North Carolina Board Certified Specialist in Social Security Disability Law who is fluent in both English and Spanish. Several members of the team, including a second attorney, have previous experience as examiners at Disability Determination Services (DDS). As such, they determined the merits of initial applications for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI).


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Last updated: June 01, 2006
Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee Hearing on NIH Revitalization, Cancer & Genetics
Archived PageThis page has been archived and is provided for historical reference purposes only. The content and links are no longer maintained and may now be outdated.
Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee Hearing
on NIH Revitalization, Cancer & Genetics
Statement of Francis S. Collins, M.D., Ph.D.
Director, National Center for Human Genome Research
March 6-7, 1996
The Human Genome Project
The Human Genome Project is a historic 15-year research endeavor with the goal of producing detailed maps of the 23 pairs of human chromosomes and sequencing the 3 billion nucleotide bases that make up the human genome. The primary mission of the project is to develop research tools -- genetic and physical maps, DNA sequence information, and new technology -- to allow researchers to find and analyze genes quickly and efficiently. The project thus far has been successful in meeting or exceeding the goals outlined in its original plan.
Last Fall we celebrated the fifth anniversary of the Human Genome Project with a record of excellent progress toward our goals. The human genetic map has been completed and is much more detailed than was originally contemplated. Recently, a team of scientists published a physical map of the human genome composed of over 15,000 well-ordered markers, and covering approximately 94 percent of the genome. This a major milestone on the way to completing a comprehensive physical map of the human genome. Though original projections were that this map would not be completed until the end of 1998, completion is now expected by early 1997.
The most challenging goal of the Human Genome Project is to sequence the entire 3 billion nucleotides that comprise the human genome. This year we are embarking on this ambitious and exciting phase of the Human Genome Project. When the Human Genome Project started, even the best laboratory could only produce a few hundred thousand basepairs per year. Improvements in DNA sequencing technology and strategy have dramatically reduced the cost of sequencing and increased the efficiency. To further stimulate development of high-capacity DNA sequencing capability, NCHGR solicited applications for pilot projects for large-scale human sequencing and for further improvements in DNA sequencing technology. These applications have now been reviewed by the National Advisory Council for Human Genome Research and we anticipate these projects will get underway in April. As a result, a number of laboratories are now positioned to sequence over 10 million basepairs a year by 1997.
Though we look forward to the first complete DNA sequence of the human genome with great anticipation, we do not have to wait until the end of the project to reap its benefits. Already this information is changing the way biomedical research and the practice of medicine are being conducted. The information, tools and resources generated by the Human Genome Project are quickly disseminated to and utilized by researchers across the United States and throughout the world. All of the information from the Human Genome Project is placed in public electronic databases which are accessed by researchers over 150,000 times each week.
The tools and technology created by the Human Genome Project are being used by scientists to help in their discovery of the genes associated with disease. Already the maps generated by the Project have greatly facilitated the gene discovery. For example, more than 10 years of research were required to isolate the gene for cystic fibrosis in 1989; while the recent isolation of the BRCA2 gene took about two years. When the Human Genome Project is complete, isolating a disease gene of interest will take just a couple of months. In addition to the reductions in time required to find disease genes, there will be significant reductions in cost.
Most of the disease genes isolated so far are so called "single gene" diseases where a misspelling in a single gene is sufficient to cause disease. Many common diseases including diabetes, Alzheimer's, alcoholism and cancer are much more complex and may involve the interactions of many genes as well as environmental factors. Analyzing these complex disease and teasing apart the genetic and environmental components represents a significant challenge and an important scientific opportunity.
Recently there have been many spectacular and far-reaching discoveries of genes associated with cancer, including genes for breast, ovarian and colon cancer. In September 1994, scientists isolated BRCA1, and in December, 1995, scientists isolated BRCA2. These genes are both associated with hereditary breast cancer. Based on studying high-risk families, scientists estimate that a woman who has a BRCA1 alteration has up to a 90 percent lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and a 40 to 50 percent risk of ovarian cancer. Researchers have found over 100 different alterations in the BRCA1 gene in these high-risk families, and have just begun the complex task of studying the specific risk of cancer associated with each of these mutations.
Scientists have now found one specific common BRCA1 alteration in several unrelated Jewish families with a family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. These families were all of Ashkenazi, or Eastern European, descent. In September, 1995, NCHGR and NCI scientists published data indicating that this particular alteration in the BRCA1 gene has now been found in about one percent of a group of unselected Ashkenazi Jewish individuals, whose personal and family history of cancer was not known. This surprisingly high frequency suggests that one in a hundred women of Ashkenazi descent may be at high risk of developing breast and/or ovarian cancer. This offers the first evidence that a specific alteration in the gene is present at detectable levels not only in families at high risk for the disease, but also in a specific population group. The NCHGR and the National Cancer Institute are now conducting a study of thousands of Ashkenazi Jewish men and women in the Washington metropolitan area to look at the relationship between this specific alteration and the risk of various cancers.
The recent discovery of the gene for ataxia-telangiectasia will also contribute to our understanding of the relationship between genetic alterations and cancer risk. You may have seen Brad Margus and his family recently on the television news program Turning Point. Two of Brad's four sons have ataxia-telangiectasia (A-T). A-T is a rare but fatal childhood neurological disorder. The discovery of this gene paves the way for more accurate diagnosis in the short term and the potential for effective treatments in the long term for children suffering from A-T. One of the interesting aspects of the A-T gene is the indication that it may play a role in predisposition to certain cancers. Although the disease itself is rare, an estimated 1 percent of the U.S. population are carriers of the altered gene and appear to have a 4- to 5-fold increased risk for various cancers, including breast, lung, stomach, and skin cancer.
Significant progress is also being made to identify the genetic contributions to prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is the most common form of cancer diagnosed in men in the United States, yet little is known about the molecular basis for this disease. Recent studies have shown the familial nature of this disease and studies are underway at NCHGR, in collaboration with Johns Hopkins, to locate the genes involved.
An immediate spin-off of disease-gene discovery is the development of genetic tests which may indicate an individual's risk to develop disease. In the short term, this will allow the design of individual programs of preventive medicine, focusing on life style changes and medical surveillance to reduce the risk of a life-threatening illness. This may be particularly effective for cancer, where early detection is often the best chance for cure.
Our knowledge will continue to grow about the function of these genes as researchers analyze at the molecular level the genetic causes of disease, and associate specific gene alterations with an individual's risk for disease. Eventually, researchers will be able to develop new treatments for many of the diseases that result from malfunctions in our genes. Detailed knowledge of the specific genetic alterations underlying disease and an understanding of their role in cellular processes will allow the design and development of rational drug and gene-based therapies. However, there will often be a substantial lag between our ability to offer a genetic test and the ability of researchers to understand the disease sufficiently well to develop new treatments and therapies.
The Ethical, Legal and Social Implications Program
As an integral part of the Human Genome Project, the NCHGR and the Department of Energy (DOE) have each set aside a portion of their funding to anticipate, analyze and address the ethical, legal and social implications (ELSI) of the new advances in human genetics that human genome research has made possible. The goals of the ELSI program are to improve the understanding of these issues through research and education, to stimulate informed public discussion, and to develop policy options intended to ensure that genetic information is used for the benefit of individuals and society. The NCHGR ELSI program has focused on several high-priority areas raised by the most immediate potential applications of genome research:
- Privacy and fair use of genetic information.
- Responsible clinical integration of new genetic technologies.
- Ethical issues surrounding the conduct of genetics research.
- Professional and public education.
The NCHGR has taken two approaches to address the ELSI goals: 1) a research grant program on which NCHGR spends 5 percent of its annual budget and 2) an interagency working group, the NIH-DOE Joint Working Group on the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications of Human Genome Research (ELSI Working Group).
Testing and Counseling Initiatives
There are two key initiatives underway at NIH to address some of the crucial questions surrounding genetic testing, especially for cancer susceptibility. To examine issues surrounding the safe integration of genetic testing and counseling for cancer risk into clinical practice, the NCHGR, National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Nursing Research and the National Institute of Mental Health are supporting clinical research studies on testing and counseling for heritable breast, ovarian and colon cancer risks. These investigators are studying the psychological and social impact of cancer testing on individuals and their family members and are developing recommendations for approaches to genetic testing and counseling for cancer risk.
The investigators in these projects have formed a consortium to pool resources, reduce duplication of effort, and increase coordination of some aspects of the studies. Some of the key aspects the investigators agreed to coordinate include: the use of a core set of evaluation tools to assist in the comparison of results from the studies; the identification of the key elements to be included in all consent forms used in the consortia studies; and a plan to develop specific recommendations for individuals who test positive for BRCA1 mutations. The studies are well underway, and the investigators have developed draft recommendations for how to counsel patients and families who carry a BRCA1 mutation.
A second highly relevant initiative funded by the NIH is the Task Force on Genetic Testing (TFGT). The mission of the Task Force is to examine the strengths and weaknesses of current practices and policies relating to the development and delivery of safe and effective genetic tests and the quality of the laboratories providing the tests. The membership of the Task Force includes representatives from the biotechnology industry, the professional medical and genetics societies, the insurance industry, consumers and the relevant federal agencies involved in the diffusion of new genetic tests. The TFGT was established in April 1995 and is expected to complete its work in early 1997.
The Task Force is concentrating on three areas:
- Scientific validation -- developing validation criteria for the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value of the tests.
- Laboratory quality -- addressing the gaps in monitoring the quality of genetic tests.
- Education, counseling, and delivery -- providing ways to educate practitioners and consumers about the limitations and capabilities of current test technologies, including their predictive and interpretative value.
The rapid pace with which genes are being discovered and genetic tests are being developed indicates that the findings of the TFGT are urgently needed and will be crucial to the development of sound policies and practices for the introduction of new genetic tests.
Fair Use of Genetic Information
As our knowledge grows about the genetic basis of disease, so too does the potential for discrimination and stigmatization based on the information contained in our genes. Of particular concern is the fear that we will lose our jobs or health insurance because we are shown to be at high risk for a particular disease. Denying individuals health insurance or employment based on genetic information will be an unfortunate deterrent to reaping the benefits of genetics research. Furthermore, we are all at risk for certain diseases, and as gene discoveries and genetic testing advance, we will have the opportunity to learn more about our individual susceptibilities. A health insurance system that uses this information to deny individuals coverage will be unworkable in the long term.
However, there are no federal laws now in place to prevent health insurance companies from using genetic information to deny coverage. Several states are concerned about the use of genetic information and have passed legislation that protects individuals from being denied health insurance based on their genetic status. These state laws prohibit insurers from denying coverage based on genetic test results, and/or prohibit using this information to establish premiums, charge differential rates or limit benefits. A few of these states, including California, Florida and Oregon, integrate protection against discrimination in insurance practices with privacy protections that prohibit insurers from requesting genetic information and from disclosing genetic information without authorization. The federal Employee Retirement Security Act (ERISA) exempts self-funded plans from state insurance laws. Thus, state laws do not provide protection for the many Americans who obtain their health insurance coverage through employer based plans.
The ELSI Working Group has long been involved in discussions about the fair use of genetic information, particularly as it relates to health insurance. In 1993, the ELSI Working Group's Task Force on Genetic Information and Insurance concluded that, "Information about past, present, or future health status, including genetic information, should not be used to deny health insurance coverage." Another important group recently formed is the National Action Plan on Breast Cancer (NAPBC), a public-private partnership established to address the research, education and policy issues in breast cancer. The NAPBC has identified the issue of genetic discrimination and health insurance as a high priority.
Building on their shared concerns, the ELSI Working Group and the NAPBC co-sponsored a workshop on July 11, 1995, to address the issue of genetic discrimination and health insurance. Consumers, researchers, federal and state government representatives and insurance industry representatives came together with the members of these two groups to participate in the one-day session. Based on the information presented at the workshop, the ELSI Working Group and the NAPBC developed and published recommendations for state and federal policy makers to protect against genetic discrimination.
The new advances in human genetics offer the promise that we will find new ways to fight some of the most devastating diseases that Americans suffer from today. We must ensure that our health care policies and practices relating to the introduction of new genetic tests and the subsequent use of genetic information keep pace with these significant new advances.
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This is the latest video from Boston Dynamics, the company famous for creating the dynamically stable quadruped Big Dog. Just six months ago, we saw this Cheetah robot run at 18mph, crushing the previous speed record of 13.1mph, which was set at MIT in 1989. This time, it's running at 28.3mph; quick enough, in fact, to overtake sprinter Usain Bolt.
Although the video shows the Cheetah running on a treadmill with a stabilizing boom, Boston Dynamics has plans to start doing untethered, outdoor testing by early 2013. The bot's currently powered externally by a hydraulic compressor, which flexes the back to give it a long stride similar to that of a cheetah. The project is funded by DARPA's Maximum Mobility and Manipulation program.
You can learn more and watch the previous video on Boston Dynamic's website here.


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South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham says he is confident the nominee for attorney general will allow the Special Counsel to finish his investigation into Russia meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The Republican met privately with William Barr on Wednesday. He said he was assured by Barr that the investigation will continue. Graham said that Barr has a very high opinion of Robert Mueller. Graham is taking over as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Barr's confirmation hearings have been scheduled for next week.
Photo: Getty


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A few inches of fresh powder covered the ground as my son and I got ready to spend the morning ice fishing on his favorite local pond. Since he was three, Ian has enjoyed chasing flags on the little perch pond and as we wiped the snow from my truck I could tell he was excited to go fishing.
"Do you think we're gonna catch anything today?" he asked as we loaded our gear in the back of the truck.
"You never know for sure," I replied. "But I can't remember a trip when we didn't catch at least a couple fish on that pond."
"That's why I like going there,"he said with a big smile. "We always catch something."
I made sure the ice auger would start, loaded the portable bob house in the truck and had my son put the pail of live bait in the cab before I grabbed the thermos of hot chocolate from my wife and headed for the pond.
I don't think it took us fifteen minutes to get there and as I expected, there wasn't anybody else there.
"Why don't any other fishermen come here??" my son asked as we packed everything onto the wooden platform of the bob house. "We've been coming here for years and I don't ever remember seeing anyone else. It's crazy. I mean we always catch fish."
"I'm sure that other people do ice fish out here, but most ice fishermen fish the bigger lakes," I explained. "That leaves all these hungry fish out here for us."
With ice creepers on our feet, we carefully made our way out the middle of a big shallow bay. I watched as my son stopped, got his bearings off some land features and walked out between a big rock and a small pine covered knoll before he declared that he'd found the spot.
"This is it isn't it?" he asked as he scratched at the ice with his creeper
"You hit it spot on," I replied as I stopped pulling the portable bob house..
We worked together to get the bob house up and the propane heater running before we began to set out six tip-ups.
"Let's make a line right across the front of the bob house," I suggested as I assembled the auger and fired it up.
Ian walked in front of me and marked a line of six holes about twenty feet apart. Then I followed with the auger and bored through the seven inches of ice. After we cleaned out the holes, he grabbed the bucket of tip-ups and followed me as we made short work of getting the six tip-ups out.
The water was barely four feet deep, so I just peeled off an arms length of leader before my son baited each tip-up with a live shiner.
"Let's go inside and grab some hot chocolate and we'll wait for something to bite one of the lines," I said.
Ian unzipped the door to the shanty, unfolded the chairs and let me in. I had just leaned over to grab the thermos when he yelled that we had a bite.
"Dad, look behind you, one of the flags just popped up!" he said as he dashed out the door.
The spool on the tip-up was still turning when we ran over to the hole. I watched as Ian knelt down beside the hole, peeled off his gloves and eased the trap from the ice.
"Is there anything there?" I asked.
He looked up at me with a grin as he eased up on the line.
"Put a little pressure on that line and see if you feel any tension," I advised.
He gave the line a snap, and began piling line on the ice, and moments later thrust an eight inch long yellow perch onto the ice.
"That's the way to start things off," I said slapping him a high five. "Now I'll bait this one up while you get that other one that just went up behind you!"
"Yaaahooo," he hollared as he jumped to his feet and took off on a dead run to the other tip-up.
"Is the reel turning?' I asked.
"Nope," he replied as he ripped the tip-up from the hole and flung another yellow perch onto the ice. "But he was still there."
We got both lines back in the water and went back inside the bob house to get warm before another tip-up popped.
I finally got to pour some hot chocolate and we both actually managed to take a couple gulps before Ian saw another flag spring into the air. I quickly unzipped the door and as I reached for my jacket, my son went flying out the door.
"I'll get it," my teenager yelled as he slid on his knees right up to the hole.
"You remind me of when you were four years old," I said with a chuckle as I watched him stare down the hole.
As I walked over to the hole carrying the bait bucket, he threw off his gloves, plucked the trap from the hole and pulled another colorful yellow perch from the hole. While he was baiting the tip-up he pointed behind me and motioned for me to get the flag.
I didn't run, however, I must confess that my pace quickened as I headed to the tip-up. When I peered down the hole I could see the spool still turning slowly. I reached down and gave the line a little snap and as soon as I felt the tension on the other end, I felt like a kid again too.
A few minutes later we got another bite and that time the fish stripped the bait. In fact, we had several bites that morning that got our baits. However, Ian and I managed to land eighteen good yellow perch and one twenty-two inch long pickerel.
As we were loading the gear back into the truck I caught my son turning to look back out on the ice where we'd been fishing.
He turned back to me with a big smile and said, "chasing tip-ups on these little perch ponds brings out the little kid in all of us."
Pat Rollins writes on the outdoors for Foster's Daily Democrat.


text:
Sanjiv Shrestha '05 grew up in a rural Nepali town that lacked running water, electricity, proper health care, and telecommunication. He received a Starr Scholarship to come to Carleton and graduated summa cum laude in economics.
"Whether I return to Asia or stay in the United States, I will try, in my own small way, to live up to what people have invested in me."


text:
Beat the Streak Report: Labor Day Weekend
It looks like "breztky26" wants to dance.
Our fearless leader upped his streak to a stellar 32 games with a bold
Jhonny Peralta selection, and heads into the holiday weekend ready to
make some noise.
And here's the obligatory holiday weekend reminder:
It's a holiday weekend! Make sure to have all your picks through Monday selected ahead of time so you don't forget.
Glad I'm here.
Oh, hello there …
? Matt Kemp: .425 AVG (17-for-40) lifetime vs. Giants starter Barry Zito
? Jorge Posada: .462 AVG (6-for-13) lifetime vs. Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow
? Paul Konerko: 13-game hitting streak.
? Carlos Gonzalez: .615 AVG (8-for-13) lifetime vs. Padres starter Jon Garland
? Andre Ethier: .514 AVG (18-for-35) lifetime vs. Giants starter Matt Cain
? Johnny Damon: .500 AVG (11-for-22) lifetime vs. Royals starter Bruce Chen
? Joey Votto: .412 AVG (7-for-17) lifetime vs. Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter
? Albert Pujols: .364 AVG (4-for-11) lifetime vs. Reds starter Homer Bailey
? David Ortiz: .354 AVG (17-for-48) lifetime vs. White Sox starter Mark Buehrle
? Hanley Ramirez: .400 AVG (10-for-25) lifetime vs. Phillies starter Roy Oswalt
? Chase Utley: .391 AVG (9-for-23) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez
? Ichiro Suzuki: .368 AVG (7-for-19) lifetime vs. Athletics starter Brett Anderson
Feeling kinda spicy?
? Yuniesky Betancourt: .458 AVG (11-for-24) lifetime vs. Tigers starter Jeremy Bonderman
? Luke Scott: .379 AVG (11-for-29) lifetime vs. Rays starter James Shields
? Jhonny Peralta: .571 AVG (8-for-14) lifetime vs. Royals starter Kyle Davies
? Jeff Keppinger: .462 AVG (12-for-26) lifetime vs. Cubs starter Ryan Dempster
You'll thank me later …
? Nick Markakis: .129 AVG (4-for-31) lifetime vs. Rays starter Matt Garza
? Victor Martinez: .188 AVG (3-for-16) lifetime vs. White Sox starter John Danks
? Martin Prado: .190 AVG (4-for-21) lifetime vs. Marlins starter Josh Johnson
? Evan Longoria: .176 AVG (3-for-17) lifetime vs. Orioles starter Jeremy Guthrie
? Joe Mauer: .059 AVG (1-for-17) lifetime vs. Rangers starter C.J. Wilson
? Jayson Werth: .083 AVG (1-for-12) lifetime vs. Brewers starter Randy Wolf
? Billy Butler: .000 AVG (0-for-7) lifetime vs. Twins starter Brian Duensing
? Adrian Beltre: .231 AVG (3-for-13) lifetime vs. Rays starter Jeff Niemann
Leaderboard time!
"pops50", welcome to the BTS Report. Our second-place streaker is
rocking a 30-gamer after Joe Mauer's fruitful night at the yard.
Top MLB streakers
? Paul Konerko: 13 games
? Michael Bourn: 11 games
? Nick Markakis: 11 games
? Carlos Gonzalez: 10 games
? Jhonny Peralta: 10 games
? A.J. Pierzynski: 10 games
? Will Rhymes: 10 games
88 Comments
Possible did-not-play (DNP) per rotoworld, for Friday
Jeter, Swisher, Mi.Cabrerra, Ad.Jones, Kubel, C.Patterson, O.Hudson
So how many of the 6 leaders still tracking $3M do you think will be left after Monday night? My guess is half, others?
"So how many of the 6 leaders still tracking $3M do you think will be left after Monday night? My guess is half, others?"
4 game days, I would be surprised if any of them make it.
Me I'm going with Cano. I know Morrows pitched pretty lights out the last month or so but look at his numbers at Yankee stadium.
"4 game days, I would be surprised if any of them make it."
Wow, I thought I was the pessimist! Gotta think that most are 1st timers this high & fear will lead them towards the most "reliable" hitters in their minds (Ichiro, Cano, etc). Unless this weekend ends up like last weekend, I think we'll still have a few.
I always seem to find out stuff late it seems. Just got home about 40 minutes ago from a pre employment screening for a new job and just saw about Miggy. Was too late to switch as I just read the blog. Oh well.
HR BTS-Bautista, has hit a lot of homers against the Yanks this year and the Stadium is a boom box during the day.
Survivor-Tampa, My Survivor streak is still going so taking it one day at a time. Like Tampa today and it may be a good pick against Millwood.
Good luck to all today.
BTS – Mr.Japan – Ichiro
HR – Ryan Howad – Went deep last night and ESPN guy this AM said he is usually hot in Sept, Phils at home(no rain from hurricane please) and Capuano is on hill for Brew Crew.
Survivor – NYY
Way out question of the day: If you had to pick a team to field with players that all had the same last name, what last name would you use (current players only).
Here's my quick assessment of the leaders' picks. Granted my opinion is mine alone & not all will agree.
Eckstien vs. Cook (high risk? 0-3 this year, Ecks struggling since coming off DL)
Mi.Cabrerra — probably not playing
C.Gonzalez vs Luebke (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
R.Cano vs Morrow (lower risk, Cano is .300 this year vs Morrow, though 0-5 one game)
R.Zimmerman vs Duke (very low risk, Zimm is .455 with 11 ABs this year)
J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move. Josh injured, may DH or not play)
LaV's List
Friday's Top Picks of the current Top2500, 188 Batters picked overall.
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Josh Hamilton 305 12.2(4TH)
Evan Longoria 153 6.12
Ichiro Suzuki 132 5.28
Carlos Gonzalez 111 4.44(3RD)
Adrian Gonzalez 105 4.2
Robinson Cano 104 4.16(4TH)
No Selection 98 3.92
Ryan Zimmerman 89 3.56(4TH)
Joe Mauer 73 2.92
Hanley Ramirez 73 2.92
Albert Pujols 64 2.56
Carl Crawford 56 2.24
Miguel Cabrera 55 2.2(2ND)
David Eckstein 4 0.16(1RST)
Highest "No Selection":Pg# 5 with a streak of 16 back to zero.
Yesterday's Top2500 Reset was 27% with Miggy killing the most hopes and dreams. And 1.7% paused.
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
00LIber, 13, pg 11, 214, R. Cano
bravesfanforlife88, 12, pg 17, 330, E. Longoria
backrubs, 7, pg 55, 1087, H. Ramirez
darwi, 5, pg 100+, 2426, A. Pujols
champion_88, 5, pg 100+, 2426, F. Sanchez(PICKED 4X IN TOP2500)
dragbunt104, 5, pg 100+, 2426, I. Suzuki
JagX, 5, pg 100+, 2426, J. Hamilton
kevmaan, 9 RESET BY M. Cabrera
GL to all
Revised. Where did I get that Zimmerman/Duke info from?
Eckstien vs. Cook (high risk? 0-3 this year, Ecks struggling since coming off DL)
Mi.Cabrerra — probably not playing
C.Gonzalez vs Luebke (no history, risky move even though CarGon is hot right now)
J.Hamilton vs Fox (no history, risky move. Josh injured, may DH or not play)
R.Cano vs Morrow (lower risk, Cano is .300 this year vs Morrow, though 0-5 one game)
R.Zimmerman vs Duke (average risk, Zimm is .333 this year vs Duke)
"BTS – Mr.Japan – Ichiro
HR – Ryan Howad – Went deep last night and ESPN guy this AM said he is usually hot in Sept, Phils at home(no rain from hurricane please) and Capuano is on hill for Brew Crew.
Survivor – NYY
Way out question of the day: If you had to pick a team to field with players that all had the same last name, what last name would you use (current players only)."
Philly isn't getting anything from the dying Earl.
As for your question, I do not think any name would have enough players to field a team.
I don't think there's enough players with same last name either. But if none of your team could have a player w/o another player having a same last name, then I'd go with Cabrerra (Miguel, Asdrubal), Suzuki (both of 'em), Gonzalez (Adrian, Carlos), Ramirez (Alexi, Aramis, Hanley). No pitchers in that list. For backups, Melky C., Alex G., Manny R. and if pitchers required: Santana (both of them) & add Cubs Santana as another to the players list.
LOL, Cubs' Santana…. Senior moment, excuse me.
Well my run could be over. Cano due up 4th in bottom of 8 with yanks up 4. If so, tWas a decent run, gotta go finish packing then we outta here.
Like I said the other day I'm still gonna play and read post but I'm not taking the laptop with me. If I have time around the daily lock I'll use a comp at the hotel but no promises. The wife and boy probably wouldn't be too happy with me if I was sitting on computer while on holidays. I do that enough at home.
Good luck to all still playing (for money or for pride) and we'll talk at y'all later. I might make the odd post here and there.
Beat the Streak: Carl Crawford
Home run fail: Nick Swisher another mental mistake even though it's only Home run Beat the streak.
Survivor: Rays
I'm getting fed up in both games (beat the streak and survivor) at the rapid reset rate. If I had not put in picks for the next 9 days I'd quit on the next reset that occurs.
Cano: 0 for 4
@00Liber. Man, yesterday I told you to avoid those last AB chances. Seriously, tough luck today, 10 pitch AB too. You're the last blogger group member that had a shot at Dick/Geoff.
Can Earl cause Oct 4th games? We'll see. BOS/CWS ppd & most likely doubleheader tomorrow or Sunday.
Stand corrected. 1 more has a shot at a tie if Longoria hits tonight.
Surprised to see one of the remaining contenders went with Cano. Given how Morrow has been pitching, there were far better choices today. This is why batter v. pitcher stats. are pretty much useless. I am sure that .300 avg. trapped a lot of people into picking him today. One thing for sure is if a key situation pops up, you can bet high avg. against a pitcher will make the pitcher very cautious.
Another lesson of this year is don't ever go against a good pitcher. You can get by one or two days but they will 0-fer you very soon. Another trend I've seen is when the good pitcher has a bad day, its the Ramiro Penas of the teams that hit him.
Speaking of strategies here are 2 basic ones I've used to get good streaks going. If they were perfect, I'd be a millioinaire, so each has holes. No matter what strategy employed, luck is a big factor. You can't foresee injuries. Nor a great defensive play turning a 1-4 into an 0-4. Nor situational plays where a 1-4 turns into 0-1 with 2 sac flies and a walk. Nor blowouts pulling starters early with just 2 ABs
Generic filters/rules of thumb: Avoid good pitchers always. Avoid hitters gone 0-fer with multiple strikeouts the game prior — may be starting a slump. Avoid 6-9 hitters especially @ home, less AB opportunities. IMO avoid lefty-lefty matchups. Batters see far more righties than lefties. Do consider picking from team where majority of starters hit pitcher well — means more ABs likely
Stragegy 1: Play who's hot against poor pitchers. Bonus if batter has good AVG against. Backfires mid-late season when manager strategies change
Strategy 2: Pick from a team that you are pretty sure will score several runs (i.e., many ABs). If team does this, your hitter could be part of the reason & more ABs likely. Note that an Ace on the mound does not equate to high runs, though it may favor the team winning.
Strategy 3: Not my choice, not one I use. Pick from Dave's picks everyday. Odds are that all go 0-fer are rare but will happen sometimes. Odds are than at least 1-2 will get a hit & at least 1 going 0-fer often times. But if you pick the wrong ones, you get reset
Next year, I plan on using these again
I think next year, I will have a much better run unless the state of pitching is just as good as this year. I have made many tweaks to the system and my last run carried me to 22. In the end, it was Ichiro that burned me this year. It took me a long time realize he is just a mere good hitter year. Not the invincible Ichiro of last year. But in the end, you will need a lot of luck to go your way or at the least don't stand on your way. That Cabrera fiasco yesterday could not have been avoided. Same with Teix injury taking down the leader.
We have 5 left now and I have faith in the current leader. He is at least working on a different system. Maybe he sees guys who are swinging well last couple of days. I hope he gets there.
@btsplayer: No more texting tonight, ok? Let this one play out.
There have been many blog comments about how tough the HR Game is. Add this to the toughness. Not one of the top 15 picks last night hit a HR.
Tulo in a day game v. Garland of SD (?)
Hamilton left game last night with bad back.
Carlos Gonzalez in a zone v. Garland
Starlin Castro v. Mejia of NYM
Stats from Chgo SunTimes – Castro hitting .385 in last 12 games and hitting .358 at Wrigley Field (74 for 204) this season.
Ichrio v. a sad Talbot of Tribe
HR – Wind at 18 mph blowing toward the RF corner at Wrigley Field = DeWitt of Cubs
Survivor – Phils will make Brew Crew and Wolf howl for mercy.
Good Luck to all today
Kudos to the leader with that Eckstein pick last night as he was 1-3.
Well from here on out if I get reset in beat the streak again there will be nothing worth playing for. There are 30 days left including today and all that's left is the 30 game prize. The same can be said about survivor all that's left is the possible consolation prize which would require a 30 game streak and I can't even win 2 in a row. For beat the streak I need to pick someone that will have at least 1 hit after 3 ABs. My last 2 O-fers have been 0 for 3s who were removed after 6 innings and then their teams had at least 1 big inning and their turn would have come up. This also means I need a hit off the starter most likely.
Beat the Streak-Robinson Cano- Why? he's o for his last 12…. make that 13 (1/3 of the way to being 0 for 3) and he's 7 for 51 .137 coming into the game against the Blue Jays with 8 0 fers and only 1 multi hit game in 13 games. I like Cano but what a TERRIBLE pick by me.
Survivor-Phillies- Roy Halladay is on the mound but can anyone get me out of this survivor funk?
Home run: Ryan Howard-This game is nothing but pride all season long.
Hey guys and girls. Good luck to you all today on this Saturday. Hope you all are doing well.
BTS-Starlin, look at Dragbunt's comments for my thoughts.
HR BTS-Bautista, wind blowing out towards left field at 20 MPH and it's a day game in the Stadium and ball flies out during the day so I expect him to hit at least 1.
Survivor-Florida, Johnson is pitching and Marlins are starting to come around and are pretty good at home and hitting is coming around so hoping he gives up at least 1 run and can you believe the Survivor leader picked San Diego and they are in the middle of an 8 game losing streak. Guess they didn't do their homework.
@yanksgiantsdevils33: Nothing worth playing for when no longer able to get prize-length streaks going? There's always the idea to play using a new strategy or an existing modified strategy of yours, preparing for next year. You can play to test that strategy & fine tune it or to beat your best streak (if possible). Though, I can still win a 30-gamer prize but that is not my goal. I'm streaking to test strategies & possibly beat my 2-year high of 20 games. Currently a 6-gamer looking for Polanco to move me to 7.
I've mentioned before that Survivor's consolation is not desirable for me. HR BTS is the hardest game of the 3 to win. I've made less than 50 picks all year & my highest was 3, ever.
Saturday's current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 13 or greater, totalling 338 players.
Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 338
Miguel Cabrera, 38, 11.24%
Ichiro Suzuki, 32, 9.47 (Leader & 4th)
Robinson Cano, 25, 7.4
Ryan Zimmerman, 19, 5.62 (4th)
Carlos Gonzalez, 18, 5.33 (2nd)
Josh Hamilton, 17, 5.03
Johnny Damon, 13, 3.85
Joe Mauer, 13, 3.85
Andre Ethier, 10, 2.96 (3rd)
Carl Crawford, 10, 2.96
Nick Swisher, 10, 2.96
Derek Jeter, 9, 2.66
Mark Teixeira, 8, 2.37
Placido Polanco, 7, 2.07
No Selection, 7, 2.07
Brett Hayes, 7, 2.07
Highest No Selection on page 2 with a streak of 20, now eliminated.
As I've mentioned before, some days you look like a king and other days like the village idiot in BTS. Well, for today, pass me the king's crown. Starlin "The Kid" Castro strokes a line single to CF – Cha Ching!
Going forward – Watch for Carlos Zambrano's next start and think about taking the Cubs in Survivor on Wed 9/8. He is pitching lights out today at Wrigley Field and has a single to boot. The Big Z loves to hit. Unfortunately, Dave could not get the web guys to add pitchers to HR BTS – CZ would have been a good pick today. He has 21 career HR's and one in 2010.
@bravesfanforlife88. Didn't include the Bloggers Group section of the Top2500. If I post Top2500 tomorrow, I'll try to remember. You can find yourself on page 13, streak of 13.
Cubs 4 NYM 1
Carlos Marmol strikes out the side for the save.
Starlin Castro – Single, double and a nice sac bunt on a 2 strike count. He is right up there with the NL batting leaders: Votto, Sir Albert and Carlos G!
Not to shabby for a 20 year old.
Correction: Cubs 5 MYM 3
Correction: Cubs 5 MYM 3
Cano goes 2 for 4, Phillies win, Howard Homers. Streaks extend for one more day.
"Saturday's current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 13 or greater, totalling 338 players.
Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes"
You probably should include the people who were at 12 as well, going into today.
There is likely to be a playoff/makeup game of some sort and even if there is not, those are definite threats to the leader.
@champ88. If we get an Oct 4th game & I'm still posting the Top2500, I'll adjust the cutoff. But til then….
To all, first time this week the $3M runners all made it through a gameday without one of them dropping. Let's hope that doesn't continue 😉
Well by that time, there is likely to be no more than 1 person left then, if any at all.
If it takes 3-4 weeks for something to occur to force an Oct 4th game, the Top2500 will be sort of dead anyway 'cause anyone can track those still alive by navigating the 1st 2 pages of the leaderboard, if not just the 1st page. If Oct 4th is scheduled before then, I'll adjust the cutoff.
@lavolpe- thanks for posting, and it is totally alright that you don't include the bloggers group anymore. Like you said, pretty soon we will be able to follow the people with cash prize chances just by looking at the first two pages. I will continue to play obviously, but it will take a hit everyday until the season ends just to tie the leaders for me. Unless there is a playoff (which there just might be) then I can only hope that I will win a tie-breaker. Anyway, I am at my three year season high so I'm not holding my breath just yet, haha. Hopefully I can continue tomorrow but I'm not sure who to pick yet. GL to all who still have a chance.
FYI: Anyone looking for Top2500 it will be delayed. BTS website a bit messed up; can't navigate to other than 1st page when sorted by current streaks. When it gets fixed, Top2500 will be posted.
Beat the Streak: Johnny Damon He's facing Kyle Davies who's 2-7 with a 6.09 era against the Tigers in 10 starts. Damon is 5 for 12 off him but he also has been 0 fer in 3 of his last 5 games. It looks like another "awful" pick by me.
Survivor: Yankees I haven't won 3 straight since August 11-13. Can the Yankees sweep the Blue Jays for a change?
Home run: Prince Fielder He homered yesterday hat are the chances he'll homer for a 2nd straight game?
HR BTS: Yankee announcer just mentioned that of the 20 HR that Hughes has allowed this season, 17 of them have been at home.
Would have been nice to know that coming into the season.
I am beginning to think that it is only possible to do one of these contests well over the long haul, because you need to spend an hour or two, considering all possible matchups to find the best possible pick.
And it is not practical to spend 6 hours of analysis alone every day for 180 days straight.
I will probably stick with BTS for 2011 with token HR and team picks.
Is everyone doing Postseason BTS or Postseason Survivor?
coming into today***
Are we going to discuss picks more next season?
I notice that lately there is very little discussion of picks anymore.
@champ88: Postseason BTS/Survivor is new to me, have no idea what you're talking about. Regarding picks, it makes sense. Less ppl blogging, been eliminated and aren't playing any more or maybe just trying new strategies for next year. Next season, give it a week or two, I'm sure the blog will be filling up with picks & stuff.
I agree with you regarding HR BTS. Survivor, though, I'll try next year. The 2012 ASG is in KC & that's only about 3 hours drive for me and consolation prize is attractive at that price.
Oh and regarding stats like HR's at home/away. Wins at home/away, etc. Now that you have a good idea of what stats you'd like to be able to track, maybe consider setting up a spreadsheet and track that stuff from day 1 next season. It would require 6 hours of research, but would require about an hour or so of tallying info after every game day. Just an idea.
oops ^^ it wouldn't require 6 hours…
Posts about who is hot and inside info is the way to go. I agree !00% on this.
My recent advice is taking Cubs Starlin Castro. Did anyone beside me take him today? He had 2 hits on Sat. and looked good at the plate as I watched the game.
Best post of the season goes to blogger who told us that Troy Tulo has a hit in every day game he has played in this season. Streak is still intact!
Also, the post today about Hughes and giving up 17 of his 20 HR's at Yankee Stadium is great info – Jays have 2 HR's against him today. How can we get that info before game time?
If you read the daily paper, here it on the radio, see it on TV etc. please post these "factiods"asap each AM.
I think the previews from MLB and ESPN that are written for each game contain some of that info, but the problem is how you can find the time to read 30 previews that are 2-3 pages long each day?
One idea I am toying with is going to each of the team's individual forums and trying to recruit a few core fans of each team into playing Beat the Streak.
The only problem there could be that the blog gets too flooded with posts.
If we had 2 people per team posting each day, that would be 60+ posts, in addition to the 30-50 posts we had during the year.
That might make it difficult to keep up a conversation.
My other plan would be to open a daily thread on each individual team's forum and then put each team's consensus pick into the blog here, but that would take quite a lot of work to organize each day.
But that would allow the angle of "who is swinging best per team" to be added to the blog each day from someone who watches most of his team's games.
What do you think?
"Best post of the season goes to blogger who told us that Troy Tulo has a hit in every day game he has played in this season. Streak is still intact!"
Does anyone know if these stats tend to carry over from 1 year to the next?
Like were Alex Rios and Troy Tulowitzki always great day hitters?
Or are we going to have to go back to the drawing board next year, with regards to the various split specialists???
Sunday's current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 14 or greater, totalling 263 players. Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 263
Josh Hamilton, 35, 13.31%
Miguel Cabrera, 30, 11.41
Carl Crawford, 19, 7.22 (2nd)
Joey Votto, 14, 5.32 (3rd)
Ichiro Suzuki, 11, 4.18
Albert Pujols, 10, 3.8
Omar Infante, 10, 3.8 (4th)
Ryan Braun, 10, 3.8
Troy Tulowitzki, 9, 3.42 (4th)
Adam Dunn, 7, 2.66
Evan Longoria, 7, 2.66
Jhonny Peralta, 6, 2.28
Derek Jeter, 5, 1.9
Ian Kinsler, 5, 1.9
Robinson Cano, 5, 1.9
Carlos Lee, 1, 0.38 (Leader)
No Selection, 0, 0.00
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
bravesfanforlife88, 14, 10, Carl Crawford
@dragbunt104, champion_88
Another Yankee loss against the Blue Jays when I picked the Yankees on survivor. My 9 game streak ended with an 8-2 loss in early August. I must avoid Phil Hughes at home with his HR problems. All I'm playing for in survivor now is pride to see if I can get to 10+ or not.
@yanksgiantsdevils33. Don't take this the wrong way. If you continue to only select Survivor teams with their #1/#2 pitchers on the mound, you will not get very far. MLB hasn't seen a 30 game winner in a pitcher in quite awhile. I still think one of the keys to selected a successful Survivor pick is to look at starters' AVG vs opposing pitcher. The more starters hitting the pitcher well can equate to a win, assumming the opposing team isn't killing your pitcher too.
@lavolpe I've got to check previews carefully to see how a team is doing against a specidic pitcher. Yankees vs. Os the next 3 days look tempting but the Twins tomorrow maybe a good try instead.
Leaderboard: 5 are at 28+
@34 bretzky26 Carlos Lee
@31 pops50 Carl Crawford (safe)
@29 gp83773149 Joey Votto
@28 astoclubgoer Troy Tulowitzki, tietyeg Omar Infante (safe)
@27 bhovekamp Josh Hamilton (did not play) eliminated from grand prize, can still play for consolation.
197 are alive for the consolation prize at 15+
Cutoff for consolation, as of this morning, is 14 not 15. Remember, one can tie and compete with Dick/Geoff for the tiebreaker. I don't know if your 197 already subtracted those that failed today/DNP? But 263 had a streak of 14+ entering today's games.
Well of the 5 that still are in the running for $3M, three moved on already, one dropped today with Votto. The leader picked a 247 hitter today. Too risky? We'll find out. He is 0-2 so far.
@yanks: Don't count Hamilton out yet, sill pinch hit prospect
At top of this blog I guessed only 3 would remain after this holiday weekend. So, with 4 of 5 moving on today, one of those remaining 4 needs to drop from the race. Volunteers? ;). Good nite bloggers.
Beat the Streak: Johnny Damon 0 for 4 officially eliminates me from the 30 game prize which was the last remaining. Kyle Davies and the bullpen combined on a 3 hitter. If September 2011 comes along and the 1st 5 months next season turn out like this year, (with lots off good pitching eras and bad pitchers getting a bunch of gems) there is going to be no hope. Getting 30+ is a miracle let alone 57. Certain days it seems that good pitchers give up the hits and bad pitchers throw 3 hitters.
Survivor: Yankees lost to the Blue Jays 7-3 eliminating me from the consolation prize on the same day that I was eliminated from 30 on beat the streak. In addition to trying out lavolpe's survivor strategy, it's going to depend on the combination off hot hitters + hot pitchers (hot teams before their streaks end) to get a long streak in that game.
As of tomorrow I'm going into each remaining gameday officially playing for pride in both beat the streak and survivor. If those strategy's don't work out next season, there maybe no point in playing in 2012.
Home run: Prince Fielder homered in the 1st inning to get me back to 2! I may strongly consider taking Robinson Cano tomorrow.
Monday Labor Day
BTS – Troy "The Sun God" Tulo – Why fight success?
HR – Another day – Pujols – He will break out eventually.
Survivor – Twins look good
Playing for the heck of it now: Trying for 100 wins in Survivor, 200 hits in BTS and 30+ HR's and bettering my miserable 12 game BTS longest streak.
Tough Tough Season for 2010
"@yanksgiantsdevils33. Don't take this the wrong way. If you continue to only select Survivor teams with their #1/#2 pitchers on the mound, you will not get very far. MLB hasn't seen a 30 game winner in a pitcher in quite awhile. I still think one of the keys to selected a successful Survivor pick is to look at starters' AVG vs opposing pitcher. The more starters hitting the pitcher well can equate to a win, assumming the opposing team isn't killing your pitcher too."
I used to play the Survivor contest quite intensely, back when the BTS prize was not much higher, and I noticed that looking at EVERYTHING really did increase your win %.
There is a direct correlation there between more research and more winning.
I was thinking of taking Ryan Howard in HR beat the streak but the Phillis are playing a double header. And I'm having a hard time deciding between Nick Swisher, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Marcus Thames. So I'm going to use Josh Hamilton to pause my HR beat the streak.
Beat the Streak: Martin Prado
Survivor: Twins
Monday's current Top2500 listing. Note that list only includes those with streaks of 14 or greater, totalling 172 players. Anyone less than that is mathematically eliminated from cash prizes
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage of 172
Joe Mauer, 24, 13.95% (3rd)
Carlos Gonzalez, 22, 12.79
Robinson Cano, 20, 11.63
Ichiro Suzuki, 13, 7.56 (2nd)
Derek Jeter, 9, 5.23
Albert Pujols, 7, 4.07
Martin Prado, 6, 3.49
Omar Infante, 6, 3.49 (4th)
Jason Heyward, 5, 2.91
Mark Teixeira, 5, 2.91
Miguel Cabrera, 5, 2.91
Brian McCann, 4, 2.33
Ian Kinsler, 4, 2.33
Josh Hamilton, 4, 2.33 (dnp likely)
No Selection, 4, 2.33
Ryan Zimmerman, 1, 0.58 (Leader)
Highest No Selection on page 4 with streak of 17, now eliminated
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Pick
bravesfanforlife88, 15, 6, Derek Jeter
^^ forgot to change that part. Includes steaks of 15 or better!
Jeff Baker of Cubs hitting over .340 v. lefties and Cubs face Wandy Rodriguez today – let's see if he plays and how he does. He was 3-3 yesterday v. Mets lefty Niece.
Tulo 0 – 6 v. Reds Harang but it is a day game so I went with him in BTS.
Wind blowing about 15-20mph toward LF at Wrigley could be a wild one. Went with Geovany Soto who hits Rodriguez well.
I usually don't root against the people winning, but if the leader gets to 44 then I am all but eliminated from cash prizes. So, it would be nice if he fell today but at the same time, I feel like bad karma will come to me if I root against him, haha. At least Jeter got a first inning double to move me along to 16. Not sure who to pick for tomorrow.
"But Survivor would be tough for any algorithm, too many moving parts to reliably predict."
This is impossible. I am sure the sports bookies have hired countless brainiacs trying to figure out the winning system. And they concluded they know just enough to spread the bets and give points so they can make the money from the spread. If you could conquer this, I am sure the hedge funds will be lining up to hire you and pay you gazillions of dollars. I think consistenly predicting baseball games is much harder than predicting where the stocks would go.
You know one thing is for sure. You have to give huge weight to the starting pitcher in the model. The bookies have a rule if the starting pitcher don't start, all bets are cancelled.
@champ88. Recall much earlier in the year we were talking about creating software to make picks? Well, I'm playing with something I call a BTS Survivor Calculator. I've got about 3 weeks of games to fine tune it to see how well it does. It is interesting so far, the calculator predicts NYY/BAL to be a close game with BAL winning (so far so good). Other games it's predicting: WAS over NYM, ATL over PIT, STL over MIL, KC over MIN, CWS over DET. I don't expect it to be 99% accurate, but with some tweaks may I can use it next year to help in Survivor and also help focus on teams to pick BTS from. For today, it strongly predicts SEA hitting OAK well & Ichiro maybe a good pick today. But yesterday, it favored DET over KC & the end result IMO was unexpected with KC throwing a 3 hitter. Anyway, just stuff to keep my mind busy while I await the final $3M runners falling from the leaderboard.
Zimmerman comes through! I think the leader is got something going on here. Totally working on a different system. Only 21 games to go!
LOL. They brought in Oliver Perez!
"No Selection, 4, 2.33"
Well, I guess the 2-day streak of everyone making picks is over!
"Jeff Baker of Cubs hitting over .340 v. lefties and Cubs face Wandy Rodriguez today – let's see if he plays and how he does. He was 3-3 yesterday v. Mets lefty Niece.
Tulo 0 – 6 v. Reds Harang but it is a day game so I went with him in BTS.
Wind blowing about 15-20mph toward LF at Wrigley could be a wild one. Went with Geovany Soto who hits Rodriguez well."
Wandy Rodriguez has a sub 2.00 ERA in his last 13 starts, so it might not be a good idea to pick against him.
Why did Starlin Castro sit though?
"@champ88. Recall much earlier in the year we were talking about creating software to make picks? Well, I'm playing with something I call a BTS Survivor Calculator. I've got about 3 weeks of games to fine tune it to see how well it does."
What stuff do you have in each model?
And how long have the models been in development?
3 of the last 4 $3M contenders are in troube:
Zimmerman: 0 for 3, 1 walk, 1 more AB
Mauer: 0 for 2, 2 more AB
Infante: 0 for 3, 1 more AB
Ichiro: 405 start
@champ88. Algorithm is in infancy. Only a week old right now. The logic is attempting to use as little data as possible, but does include OBA, starter's AVG, team win/loss percentage, among other stuff for different algos. Still needs work and trying to figure out a good weighting system to offset 1000 AVG with 1-2 ABs, for example. But Survivor would be tough for any algorithm, too many moving parts to reliably predict. Just 1 bad inning, 1 error, 1 key injury, etc, can throw the entire game off in one direction or the other. Still playing with the idea nonetheless
@champ88: "You know one thing is for sure. You have to give huge weight to the starting pitcher in the model. The bookies have a rule if the starting pitcher don't start, all bets are cancelled."
Agreed. And this is where luck comes in during BTS too. If your pick's hit is off the pen, how can anyone argue the streak continuing is other than luck? Same goes for picking against pitchers never seen before. And that last scenario is where the "Calculator" is flawed. But out of the 6-15 games played daily (usually), I'm seeing if the "Calculator" can pick from 2-4 very likely outcomes. The scoring system also indicates close game potential. BAL/NYY, CIN/COL & KC/MINN were scored as close. If picking, then I'd avoid those that might be close and go elsewhere as I did with picking WAS today.
Infante and Zimmerman will get 1 more AB.
Mauer just blooped a single in, so astro moves up to 30.
Zimmerman singled in his last AB, which moves him to 36.
The single came on a jammed shot on an 0-2 pitch.
Final in Atlanta.
Infante: 0 for 4, 1 walk, knocks out 6, including the 4th place player
Prado: 0 for 5, knocks out 6 more
Tulowitzki: just tripled in the 4th, which pushes me to 2; if it would have just rode him against Garland on Saturday, I would be at 8!
This is the 2nd time I've taken Prado against the Pirates and he goes 0 for 5. The "SWITCH" bites again! I had Mark Teixeira who went 1 for 4. As for Prado how do you get 5 chances against the Pirates and FAIL? And this has happened twice. 2 o fers in a row, 3 out of 5, 4 out of 7 and 7 out of my last 12 picks.
In survivor I also switched, switching from the Yankees to the Twins but the Yankees lost. The Twins lead 5-4 in the top of the 7th can they hold on?
Josh Hamilton did not pinch hit so I'm still at 2 in home run.
Starli Castro sits for an off day – He has been playing every day and the 0-fer on Sunday probably made the decision.
He also lost track of how many outs there were in one situation on Sunday.
Jeff Baker hits the lefties as he singled in the bottom of the first inning and a double so he was 2 – 4.
My feeling, as it has been for some time now, is that the person to crack the 50 game in a row plateau will be someone who uses these "factoids" to make a run at 57.
Ichiro just got a hit – M's now have two hits.
Survior is tough – You have to use facts and all the "wits" and inside info you can get your hands on.
e.g. like Sunday when someone posted that Hughes of NYY gave up 17 of his 20 HR's at Yankee Stadium – We know what happened Jays beat Yanks at the stadium.
My longest run has been 11 games in Survivor for a rank of 1429 – that shows how tough the game is.
@champ88: The Calculator did well today & still needs some work. I modified a couple weighting factors & will check it out tomorrow. Best case scenario, maybe, just maybe if it tends to predict with good accuracy, next year, I can provide my "LaVolpe Picks" for Survivor similar to Dave's picks for BTS…. hmmmm.
Results of today's calculations:
Correct: in order of best probability: WAS, STL, BAL, CWS, CHC, COL
Wrong: in same order: SEA, ATL, KC, TEX
Of games still in progress or to be played, to win: SF, TB (close scoring?), CLE, SD
Some weaknesses include guessing starting lineup, high averages for 1-2 lifetime ABs, and a few other scenarios. Starting lineup is key though; averages of bench players affect outcome far less often.
Tomorrow's picks via Calculator: CHC, TOR, MIN, DET, LAA, PHI, OAK, LAD, BAL, STL, TB, SF, COL, NYM
That BAL prediction must be wrong as it's vs Sabathia @ home 🙂 Anyway, the top 4 are of primary interest for me & CHC prediction is iffy since most starters only have 1 game vs pitcher.
Well, I've tweaked the weighting functions quite a bit and the new prediction for tomorrow follows. BAL still favored over NYY by the algorithm. Besides probability rankings changing, so did the following matchups: MIL over STL, WSH over NYM, PIT over ATL. We shalls see
An asterisk indicates close game prediction:
^^^ SD pitching change tomorrow, just posted. SD now favored over LAD.
Survivor – How to Guide:
1. Check the Schedule on MLB.com and see what the game line says about the pitchers.
2. Check newspaper that give game odds & that shows what the pitchers have done the past 3 games – ERA, W – L.
3. Check out your factiods:
Sabathia is huge at home.
Carpenter is huge at home and dominates Central Div Team rivals.
4. Pirates are a terrible road team.
5. O's are no longer a Double AA team.
6. Make your best pick = Tuesday Twins and Liriano over Royals.
@dragbunt: regarding your comments
1 & 2. agree
3, 4 & 5. Year to year and can change
6. agreed
I think adding rotoworld to your daily checks too. Newspapers & MLB may not have late scratch info or scheduled rest days for key players. rotoworld can provide that info many times, well before games lock. And yes it can matter, especially if 1 or more key players are not in the lineup as expected.
The model I use for Survivor outputs the following values:
1) Braves: 7.00 points
2) Yankees: 5.50 points
3) Twins: 3.50 points (wins tiebreaker over Astros)
4) Astros: 3.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Twins)
5) Athletics: 3.00 points (wins tiebreaker over Brewers)
6) Brewers: 3.00 points (loses tiebreaker to Athletics)
7) Blue Jays: 2.50 points
8) White Sox: 2.25 points
9) Rockies: 1.50 points (wins tiebreakers over Giants and Rays)
10) Giants: 1.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Rockies, but wins tiebreaker over Rays)
11) Rays: 1.50 points (loses tiebreakers to Rockies and Giants)
12) Indians: 0.50 points (wins tiebreakers over Phillies and Nationals)
13) Phillies: 0.50 points (loses tiebreaker to Indians, but wins tiebreaker over Nationals)
14) Nationals: 0.50 points (loses tiebreakers to Indians and Phillies)
15) Dodgers / Padres: 0.00 points
Of course, the model above only analyzes the starting pitchers.
@champ88. What? No criteria if a full moon or played in months with 31 days? Otherwise, it just might be perfect 🙂
lol, well now we head to Stage 2 for the model.
First off, it eliminates any teams who do not have at least 2.00 points from consideration.
There are some exceptions to this model, such as when Ubaldo Jimenez was starting in the midst of his 13-1 start to the year.
But as a general rule, that is where the model is right now.
So that reduces the conversation to 8 teams.
Next, it looks at the quality of the teams involved in a game, how they are doing recently, and their home/road splits.
And then it eliminates any teams that do not have at least 4.00 points by the end of that stage.
So here are the values so far:
1) Braves: 10.25 points
2) Yankees: 9.50 points
3) Twins: 6.50 points
4) Athletics: 6.50 points
5) White Sox: 4.25 points
6) Astros: 3.75 points
7) Blue Jays: 3.25 points
8) Brewers: 2.25 points
So now for Stage 3, you only have 5 teams in play.
Looking at this setup, I would get rid of the White Sox right now as well, since they are barely in contention and are on a long winning streak right now facing a team that has their ace on the mound.
And so now you have the 4 teams that can match up against the 4 teams that you care about: Braves, Yankees, Twins, Athletics.
In order to drill down to 1 team, you then use your "factoids" or trends that you have noticed over the years.


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On October 2, 1954, a day shy of his 21st birthday, fullback Carl Talmadge "Duke" Washington '59 and his fellow Cougars played the University of Texas on a sweltering day at Memorial Stadium.
The result was a 40-14 Texas victory, a forgettable day in the annals of Cougar football; however, the day reaches far beyond the athletics history of Washington State and Texas.
Washington, the starting fullback for the Cougars, became the first African-American to play at Memorial Stadium. To the Texas players, however, Washington was not a player making history, but a player to be reckoned with.
"I'm sure it did make a difference in political circles, but it did not make a difference to us on the football team," Del Womack, a running back on the '54 Texas team, said in a recent phone interview. "We just thought he was a good football player."
"I don't think there was any controversy whatsoever," Charley Brewer, the Texas quarterback that day, recollected. "It may have been a sportswriter's nightmare because there was nothing interesting going on. It was a non-event really."
While it may have been a non-event for the players, it was eventful for the administrations at each school.
In a September 16 letter to Texas President Logan Wilson, Washington State College President C. Clement French summarized a phone conversation the two had earlier that day.
Following a conference with members of the Texas Board of Regents, Wilson reported to French that the Regents' position whether Washington State plays or does not play any member of its team is its own responsibility and is without approval or disapproval by the Regents. However, under state law, Texas could not be responsible for the common housing of different races.
In a follow-up letter to Wilson dated September 22, French remarked on the Cougars' September 17 game against USC (a 39-0 loss) and if the Austin papers carried an account of the game.
"If they did," French wrote, "you know that we not only got walloped but that the outstanding bright spot for our team was the young man who has been the center of our discussion. Therefore, unless he is injured and unable to travel, there is no question but that he will be in our traveling squad and will play."
In his concluding paragraphs, French wrote, "This is a ticklish one for both of us, and we are both equally anxious to get it behind us smoothly."
Washington made the trip and did not stay with the team at the hotel, but rather stayed with an African-American family in Austin.
"Although there were modifications to the living arrangement, I was not fazed by that for the simple reason that there was no devaluation by the institution of accommodations for me," Washington says. "I never missed a meal, never missed a meeting, I surely didn't miss the game.
"We went there to integrate a football game; we did not go to Texas to integrate a hotel."
Drawing from his experiences at Pasco High School, integrating a football game was nothing new for Washington.
"In reflection, what I took from the Texas game was what I brought to the game," Washington says. "I was the only black player at Pasco High School and all the teams we played were all-white teams. How am I going to play high school ball and say that I'm going to be uncomfortable playing against a team that doesn't have any black players?"
There was no sign of being uncomfortable in his performance in Austin. Washington gained 94 yards on just eight carries, one a 73-yard touchdown run. According to accounts from the game, a thunderous ovation from the 28,000 in attendance ensued after the run.
The Austin-Statesman newspaper account describes Washington as having "slipped through a groove in the middle, out to his left, and soon outdistanced baffled Texas defenders."
"Anybody who makes a long run, he had to dodge someone," Womack says of the run. "I know there wasn't a hole four miles wide on that play."
A passage from the Statesman story reads, "The biggest ovation of the day went to him when he romped for the score. The next biggest ovation went to him when he left the game."
"What was the satisfaction for me was that there was no trash talking in the game, no extracurricular activities, no unsportsmanlike conduct in the game from the Texas players," Washington says.
"I don't think there was the normal trash talk between players and it was a very clean game," Brewer recalls.
Washington finished his senior season with a team-leading 616 yards and was invited to play in the East-West Shrine Game at San Francisco on New Year's Day. Washington was a standout in the game, running for 85 yards and a touchdown.
In a letter dated December 3, 1954, French congratulated Washington on his selection to the East-West game and stated: "I have watched with more interest than you may have realized your participation in football this year and the way you have handled yourself in some potentially difficult situations. I think you have given a fine account of yourself and merit to an unusual extent the recognition which has now come to you."
This September, recognition will come Washington's way again when he returns to Pullman to be inducted into the Washington State University Athletic Hall of Fame.
It will be a meaningful stop for Washington, 75, who after his professional football career (in Philadelphia and British Columbia) ended, returned to Washington State and earned his degree in interior design in 1959.
"When I decided to take the road from Pasco to Pullman," says Washington, "I played on the Cougar field, went up on the academic hill and completed my degree, and then left Washington State to do my life's work. I came to the realization that all of my roads go back to Pullman."


text:
Mark Mack Architects
Functional Californian architecture
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Functional, elegant architecture is what Californian architect Mark Mack and his office are recognized and acclaimed for. Their architectural projects in California and abroad range from functional residences in urban and rural contexts to museum interiors, restaurants, retail offices and showrooms. His architecture always carefully considers the client's needs, the specifics of the site and the wider, socio-cultural context. The result is work that is both functional and elegant, inventive and traditional.
The Californian architect's works celebrate the colorful spirit of the Californian lifestyle and emphasize the functional integration of built form and environment. Clarity of form, simplicity of construction and an appreciation of tradition, climate, and materiality gives Mack's architecture a quality of timelessness. Californian elegance combined with functional design and natural material is what Mark Mack stands for.


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Blue Angels grounded from Ocean City Air Show
Navy cites budget cuts
The Navy's Blue Angels are one of the biggest draws for the Ocean City Air Show, but they're not flying this year.
The Navy's flying team is known to take their talents over the beach and boardwalk in a performance that seems to get increasingly exciting every year.
This year, officials with the Navy confirmed earlier this month that they're canceling the remainder of the elite daredevil pilot's 2013 season because of federal budget cuts.
Despite losing a headliner for this year's show, Ocean City Mayor Rick Meehan said he's not concerned.
"It's just such a wonderful experience. They are going to bring in a harrier, which is a very big draw and a very important type of aircraft. So, we're going to do what we need to do to make it still be a fabulous show," he said.
A harrier is an aircraft that moves up and down by itself, almost like a spaceship. This year's air show is set for June 8-9.


text:
Can you see the elephant in the room? Or is it more like Godzilla?
Not only are they hiding losses, as this Fortune article states, "nonperforming and restructured assets grew six times as fast as loan reserves over the past year," but they didn't even talk about overal debt levels (the elephant), derivatives and how levered the banks are to these markets (Godzilla). Still, a good article that actually made the mainstream…
Do banks have something to hide?
Even experts have a hard time getting a handle on how bad losses might get as the commercial real estate market implodes.
By Colin Barr, senior writer
October 29, 2009
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The banks have taken some lumps since the economy went bad. But some believe their biggest headaches are yet to come.
The pace at which U.S. commercial banks are adding to their loan loss reserves has slowed this year, while loans continue to go bad at a brisk pace.
Despite the optimism of lenders like Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), some observers warn that banks aren't socking away enough for a rainier day.
The disconnect is particularly acute in commercial real estate, where lenders are facing a surge of defaults on commercial mortgages and construction loans made when prices were much higher and demand for space much stronger.
Banks have been recognizing commercial real estate losses slowly, even though the high season for defaults isn't expected to arrive until next year.
That's not the only problem. Ill-defined or inconsistently applied rules for valuing securities and handling loan modifications can make it hard to say how healthy banks really are, from Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) on down.
The risk is that this year's recovery could turn out to be a false dawn, delivering another blow to investor trust -- not to mention people's 401(k)s.
"The credibility of the banking system could take another step back," said Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets. "Everyone is expecting we've seen the peak in losses, but it's impossible to know for sure because you can't get an apples-to-apples comparison."
Extend, pretend?
Banks have been swimming in losses since the collapse of the credit markets in mid-2007 sapped demand for all sorts of goods and services.
Loans written off as uncollectible hit their highest level on record in the second quarter, according to government data. Loan loss reserves are also at a peak since the government started keeping track in 1984, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Taking losses on souring loans and troubled assets eats into profits, which tends to drive down share prices and executives' pay. The losses also erode capital, reducing lendable funds and forcing banks to raise new money by selling stock or businesses.
Accordingly, banks have been eager to stretch their losses across as long a period as possible. Facing a triple-digit bank-failure count and trying to manage hundreds of troubled lenders, regulators are willing to go along, up to a point.
In April, accounting rule makers gave banks more leeway in valuing hard-to-trade securities. That's led to current discussions over when banks will have to bring some off balance-sheet assets and liabilities back in house.
"Politically, this sort of forbearance is the lowest-cost way of stopping the train wreck," said Wayne Landsman, an accounting professor at the University of North Carolina. "The banks wanted that April change very badly, and you have to assume they wanted it for a reason."
Behind the curve
The risk, of course, is that deferring the reckoning can create a bigger problem later. And there are those who believe the banks are doing just that.
Nonperforming and restructured assets grew six times as fast as loan reserves over the past year, analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods estimate, while reserve building as a proportion of new troubled loans tapered off after peaking in the fourth quarter of 2008.
This pattern suggests "the banks are not ahead of the curve in providing for troubled loans," the KBW analysts wrote in a report earlier this month.
Plenty of trouble is ahead. Prices on apartment, industrial, office and warehouse properties dropped 33% over the past year, according to the Moody's/REAL commercial property price index.
Real estate research firm Foresight Analytics estimates banks should have booked losses on around $110 billion of defaulted commercial real estate and construction loans. But so far they have taken their medicine in only about a third of those cases.
That means the banks could face a backlog of $70 billion or so defaulted but unreserved loans as we head into the teeth of down cycle in commercial real estate -- where the bulk of bubble-era loans are due to be repaid or refinanced between 2010 and 2012.
Regional and community banks, rather than the giant TARP-taking entities, will bear the brunt of this onslaught. Banks with between $100 million and $10 billion in assets have almost $900 billion of commercial real estate exposure, Foresight estimates. That's three times their capital.
"Right now, we're closer to the beginning of this problem than the end," said Matthew Anderson, a partner at Foresight in Oakland, Calif.
Apples and oranges
Even some seemingly well established positive trends look muddled with a closer look at the numbers.
For instance, publicly disclosed financial reports have been showing a slowdown in the growth of early-stage delinquencies, those in which borrowers are a month or two behind on their bills. Investors have been cheered by this trend because it suggests the worst losses are behind the banks.
But regulatory filings by the same banks often paint a less upbeat picture, said FBR's Miller.
He said nonperforming asset levels were 17% higher in regulatory filings than in public statements, according to FBR estimates based on second-quarter data for the top 25 banks and thrifts by assets -- suggesting that some big banks are understating problem loans as they go through the restructuring process.
One view into this puzzle is the banks' handling of loan modifications and other changes, under the category of troubled debt restructurings.
Troubled debt restructurings have doubled over the past year, according to KBW, as banks extend loan maturities and cut interest rates or loan balances, particularly on troubled residential loans.
But not all institutions account for restructured loans in the same fashion -- which could mean some bank investors are in for a surprise down the road as many restructured loans go sour.
"The issue is that accounting for loan mods is not transparent and makes delinquency data appear better on the surface," FBR's Miller wrote in a note to clients this month.
"It is now apparent that loans made during the strategic growth plan era are not immune to the credit cycle," they wrote. "A consequence of this revelation should be a higher degree of investor skepticism and a lower stock valuation for an indefinite period."
Oh yeah, nine more banks were closed by the FDIC yesterday. Remember the good old days when it was one or two per Bank Failure Friday? I'm thinking those days are well behind us…
As far as commercial real estate goes, the stock market has indeed discounted the industry. IYR, the Dow Jones Real Estate Index (commercial), is still down 51% from its February, 2007, high.
On the approximately 4 year weekly chart of IYR (above), you can see that it performed a near perfect 38.2% retrace of its plunge, a plunge that was so deep that the bounce off the March '09 bottom resulted in it currently sitting with a 102% gain from the low! Did you buy it there and hold? Didn't think so… I hope those who did have studied Elliott Wave and know what wave C down means. Hey, commercial real estate, banks, and derivatives… Go, Go, Go - Godzilla!
Blue Oyster Cult – Godzilla:


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