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Ciencia e investigación agraria
versión On-line ISSN 0718-1620
Cienc. Inv. Agr. vol.39 no.1 Santiago abr. 2012
Cien. Inv. Agr. 39(1):159-176. 2012
An ecophysiographic approach for Araucaria araucana regeneration management
Una aproximación ecofisiográfica para el manejo de la regeneración de Araucaria araucana
Fernando Drake1, Juan Ramón Molina2, and Miguel Ángel Herrera2
1Departamento de Manejo de Bosques y Medioambiente, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile.
2Departamento de Ingeniería Forestal, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Agronómica y de Montes, Edificio Leonardo da Vinci, Universidad de Córdoba, ES-14071, Córdoba, España.
Chilean temperate forests are dominated by Nothofagus and Araucaria araucana species. Despite A. araucana not being at imminent risk of extinction, its cultural value and the associated environmental services and landscape goods have an important role for the conservation of this native forest. In some areas, the future conservation of A. araucana is a cause of great concern given its management prohibition and regeneration limitation due to slow growth, canopy tree competition and dense understory. The above characteristics make this species most susceptible to some disturbances, such as livestock, wildlife and human pressures. Therefore, sustainable management of A. araucana forests requires the assessment of its regeneration condition. The objective of this research was to apply multivariable analysis techniques in search of the most relevant parameter for Araucaria regeneration. This study used the following methods: principal component analysis (PCA), forward stepwise regression modeling and Maxent modeling. By PCA, it was possible to reduce the dimension to six-dimensional with a variance explanation of greater than 75%. The multivariable regression model, known as model 7, was the best compromise between the coefficient of determination and model size (number of independent variables). Incorporating a maximum entropy trend improved model performance. A spatial prediction was obtained by summing the contributions of statistical methods and the geographic information system (GIS). The GIS increased the flexibility of the proposed model, which enabled an extrapolation to other areas at different spatial and temporal scales.
Key words: Maxent model, Nothofagus species, seedling establishment, seedling tree.
Los bosques templados chilenos están dominados por especies del género Nothofagus y Araucaria araucana. El valor cultural y los servicios y bienes ambientales asociados a la presencia de A. araucana juegan un papel esencial en la conservación del bosque nativo, a pesar de que no se encuentra bajo riesgo inminente de extinción. Su conservación está sujeta a un gran debate debido a su prohibición de manejo y a la limitada regeneración existente en algunas áreas debido a su bajo crecimiento, la competición existente en el dosel arbóreo y la presencia de un denso sotobosque. Todas estas características hacen a esta especie muy susceptible a perturbaciones como el ganado doméstico, la fauna silvestre y la presión humana. En este sentido, el manejo sustentable de los bosques de A. araucana requiere de la evaluación del estado de su regeneración. El objetivo de esta investigación fue aplicar técnicas de análisis multivariable con objeto de encontrar los parámetros más revelantes en la regeneración de A. araucana. Las técnicas utilizadas fueron el Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP), el modelo de regresión mediante la eliminación de variables y el modelo Maxent. Mediante el análisis ACP fue posible reducir el modelo a seis variables con una explicación de la varianza superior al 75%. El modelo de regresión multivariable, conocido como "Modelo 7", alcanzó el mayor resultado a tenor de la relación existente entre el coeficiente de determinación y el tamaño del modelo (número de variables independientes). La incorporación del concepto de máxima entropía mejoró la representatividad del modelo. La integración de las diferentes metodologías estadísticas y los Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) permitió obtener una predicción espacial. Los SIG incrementan la flexibilidad del modelo propuesto permitiendo su extrapolación a otras áreas bajo diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales.
Palabras clave: Árbol semillero, especies de Nothofagus, establecimiento de plántulas, modelo Maxent.
Chilean forests are one of the most biodiverse forests in the world (Marticorena and Quezada, 1985). In the last 100 years, thousands of hectares of the most endemic, interesting and wonderful forests have been destroyed by men. In the case of Chile, some authors have reported that native forest destruction began in the 16th century with the Spanish conquest (Donoso and Lara, 1995, Torrejon and Cisternas, 2003). Subsequently, millions of hectares were burnt to prepare the land for agriculture in the 1950s (Otero, 2006).
Araucaria araucana (Mol.) K. Koch is a relict conifer in South America's temperate forests (Tortorelli, 1956, Veblen, 1982, Bekessy et al, 2004, Donoso, 2006). Araucaria forests are found between 37° and 41° S on both sides of the Andean Mountain Range in Chile and Argentina (Veblen, 1982; Donoso, 1993, Drake et al, 2009). Annual precipitation varies between 800 and 4,000 mm per year (Donoso, 2006) in this region due to its large and narrow distribution. In Chile, A. araucana usually forms mixed stands with Nothofagus obliqua (Mirb. Oerst. var.) at lower altitudes, Nothofagus dombeyi (Mirb. Oerst.) at medium altitudes and Nothofaguspumilio (Poepp. et Endel. Krasser) at higher altitudes (Rodríguez et al., 1983). In Chile, A. araucana covers 253,715 ha (Drake, 2004) representing approximately 60% of the total area in which this species is found (Donoso, 2006). In Chile, there are two restricted habitats: the Andean Mountain Range and the Chilean Coastal Range (Bekessy et al., 2004). In the Andean Mountain Range, A. araucana occupies an area between 37° 30' and 39° 30' S (Biobío, Araucanía and Los Lagos regions). In the Chilean Coastal Range, A. araucana is situated at latitudes between 37° 20' and 38° 40' S (Donoso, 1993, Enright and Hill, 1995, Drake et al, 2009).
A. araucana is established as a representative symbol of the Chilean forest biodiversity because of its cultural and social importance (Donoso and Lara, 1995, Aagesen, 1998, Donoso, 2006). This species is a primary source of food and income for the Mapuche Pewenche community (Maletti 1997, Bengoa, 2000, Azocar et al, 2005). The Pewenche community obtains edible plants, firewood, livestock shelter and construction materials from these forests (Ladio, 2001, Aagesen, 2004). Native forests also offer important environmental services (Schmidt and Lara, 1985, Hoffmann et al., 2001) and landscape goods according to the presence of century- and millennium-old trees (Heusser et al., 1988). A. araucana is listed as a vulnerable species (IUCN, 1996) and is a protected species under Chilean law, consolidating its protection and prohibiting its cutting (Supreme Decree 43 and Native Forest Law).
The regeneration behavior for shade-tolerant gymnosperms such as A. araucana is consistent with the regeneration hypothesis associated to the competition/colonization model and spatial patterns (Bond, 1989). Under this theoretical framework and based on the dynamics of A. araucana/Nothofagus forests, there is direct influence of the regeneration condition and disturbance histories (Veblen, 1982, Burn, 1993). A. araucana can colonize disturbed areas, such as volcanic ash deposition and lava flows, and survive under suppressed conditions and wildfire (Veblen, 1982; Donoso et al., 2008). Wildfire is the most common worldwide disturbance and has been shown to be the key disturbance factor controlling the dynamic of A. araucaria/Nothofagus forests (Veblen, 1982; González et al., 2005, 2010). Temperate forest species have developed mechanisms, such as resprouting, fire-girdled stems or thick bark, to survive (Montaldo, 1974, Veblen et al., 1995a, 1995b). The presence of thick bark on A. araucana trees is a special adaptation to survive fire conditions. A. araucana trees can regenerate due to their thick bark (Burns, 1993, González et al., 2005, González and Veblen, 2007) if these trees establish immediately after a fire that kills canopy trees (Veblen, 1982; Burns, 1991).
A. araucana is known for its conservative strategy because of its long-lived status (more than 1,000 years) and slow growth (Mutarelli, 1966, Burns, 1991, Donoso, 2006). Seedling establishment may be limited by masting, seed predation and understory vegetation effects (Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2009). A. araucana has a cone production masting pattern that is environmentally triggered, intermittent, moderately fluctuating, and regionally synchronous (Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2008). Although seed production depends on A. araucana mast year (Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2008, Donoso, 2008), the maximum seed production is obtained when the stand age is more than 40 years old (Donoso, 1993) and when the tree occupies the dominant layer in the canopy cover (Enright and Hill, 1995, Enright et al, 1999, Drake, 2004). Austral parakeets (Enicognathus ferrugineus) are the primary predispersal predators of A. araucana seeds (Finckh and Paulsch, 1995). Parakeets handle seeds different in mast and intermast years because they drop fewer slightly damaged seeds when production is low (Shepherd et al., 2008). A. araucana seedlings tend to establish mainly beneath parent trees due to the limited dispersal range of the large seeds (Caro, 1995, Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2009). If A. araucana seedlings colonize immediately in gaps and open areas created by dead trees, they can develop into the canopy layer (Schmidt 1977, Drake 2004). Although some authors have indicated that dense Chusquea understory tends to reduce A. araucana seedling establishment (Finckh and Paulsch, 1995, Donoso, 2008, Mujica et al, 2009), other authors have suggested that this situation is not only related to Chusquea competition but also to seed predation (Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2009, Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2010). A. araucana forests are strongly altered by animal, mainly Sus scrofa Linnaeus, and human pressures (Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2008, 2010).
The forest dynamics of mixed stands have been studied extensively (Veblen, 1982, Rodríguez et al., 1983, Burns, 1991, Finckh and Paulsch, 1995, Donoso, 2003, 2006, González and Veblen, 2007, Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2008). Despite the prohibition of A. araucana management, Drake et al. (2005) recommended sustainable management actions to improve the stand structure and seedling establishment. The present study documented the patterns of vegetation on private land in the Andean Mountain Range in Southern Central Chile. This study aimed to develop an objective and simple model of A. araucana stand development that incorporates the regeneration condition. This study utilized tree mensuration, forest characterization, ecological variables and physiographic variables according to the geographic information system (GIS) to define sustainable management recommendations for each stand on the private land. The environmental characteristics and their relation to the regeneration condition were examined. According to other studies (Drake et al, 2005, Mujica et al, 2009), the present study considered the hypothesis that Chilean law and forest policies should strongly consider sustainable management of A. araucana and should avoid ecological traditional principles, such A. araucana area preservation and complete cutting prohibition.
Materials and methods
Study area
A. araucana occupies three administrative regions of Chile: the Biobío Region, Araucanía Region and Los Ríos Region (Figure 1). The study area is located in Melipeuco County in the Araucanía Region, and it covers 255.1 hectares. The sampled area was 108.76 hectares, which was the proportion of the private land where A. araucana trees were present.
Although the annual precipitation of this area varies between 1,500 and 2,500 mm, the climate is temperate with dry summer months. The temperature is 2° C for the coldest month and 23° C for the hottest month. The lithology is predominantly volcanic type, such as volcanic ash deposition in lava flows. These soils have a depth of up to 1.25 m. A. araucana elevation ranges between 1,150 and 1,500 meters. Although there is a small area with a slope greater than 80%, the study area is characterized by wavy topography with a mean slope close to 15%.
The vegetation is occupied by mixed Araucaria/N. Dombeyi/N. pumilio forests. In the upper areas, N.pumilio and Nothofagus antarctica (G. Forst) dominate the vegetation, forming pure stands. The understory is dominated by Chusquea quila (Mol.) Kunth, Drimys winteri J. R. et G. Forster var. andina Reiche, Desfontainia spinosa Ruiz et Pav., Azara lanceolata, Hook. f. Berberispearcei, Chiliotrichium rosmarinifolium Less, Maytenus disticha Hook. f. and some herbaceous plants, such as Valeriana lapathifolia Vahl. The forest understory generally has a dense layer of C. quila, an aggressive and abundant species in Southern Chile. The dense layer reached up to 1.3 m in the majority of the sampling units.
Field inventory
In the study area, there was no evidence of recent disturbances (last 50 years), such as forest fires or volcanic activities. Only trees falling by strong winds were found. The forest inventory design and stratification were developed using aerial photographs and GIS from a private air flight. A preliminary sampling was carried out with the help of the above cartographic information to estimate forest variability in relation to vegetation structure.
An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine if significant differences (P≤0.05) existed in the vegetation structure (stand density, Araucaria density, Araucaria diameter and Araucaria height). If significant differences were detected, Tukey's HSD test was performed to determine which specific vegetation characteristic was different.
The sampling units were circular plots of 1,000 m2 according to the inventory results of the surrounding area where crown diameters between 9.75 and 13.55 m were found (León and Villarroel, 2004), and the plot optimization was based on forest characterization (Freese, 1961, Zeide, 1980). This plot size had some limitations because of the presence of some seedling trees near the plot borders. As a consequence, some A. araucana seedlings were either present inside or outside of the plot. The forest inventory design was based on a cost-benefit analysis (Condés and Martínez Millán, 2001) according to its private condition and the lack of economic profitability.
Regeneration information was collected by random and square 100 m2 subplots containing A. araucana and other species seedlings. The seedling number was calculated by averaging the mean seedling number over the 1,000 m2 plot. Model variables were expressed as the number of seedlings per hectare to allow the model to be applied independently of the plot size. All seedlings were classified by three diameter classes (< 1 cm, 1-5 cm, and > 5 cm) and three height classes (< 50 cm, 50-130 cm, and > 130 cm) according to previous A. araucana approaches (Cavieres, 1987, Divasto, 2003, Drake, 2004). Seedling height has a low correlation with seedling age due to the different abilities of species to respond to shade or light stress. González (1998) reported that the average annual height growth for A. araucana ranges between 3.10 and 3.55 cm. According to this hypothesis, it was possible to establish a relation between height classes and to estimate age without the need of tree-ring measurement. Thus, A. araucana seedlings less than 50 cm generally corresponded to plants less than 15 years old.
We tested different types of variables: tree mensuration, forest characterization, ecological variables and physiographic variables (Table 1).
All variables were organized in a GIS database at a digital elevation model with an original 30-m resolution. Forest characterization variables, such as stand density, A. araucana density, canopy composition and seedling tree presence, were complemented by ecological variables, such as shrub coverage, A. araucana seedling number and Nothofagus seedling number. Stand density (DEN) and Araucaria density (ARA) were obtained from the forest inventory and were expressed as the number of trees per hectare. Thus, the model can be applied independently of the plot size. A binomial variable (COM) representing the canopy composition was created (class 0 = N. dombeyi and class 1 = N. dombeyi and N. pumilio). The SED variable depended on the presence of A. araucana trees with maximum seed production (class 0 = seed tree absence and class 1 = seed tree presence), which allowed an improvement opportunity for seedling establishment. A "seed tree" was identified as a female tree with a 50-100-cm diameter at breast height (dbh) according to previous studies (Enright et al., 1999, Drake, 2004).
The following ecological variables were used: shrub coverage, Nothofagus seedling number and A. araucana seedling number. The shrub coverage variable (class 1 = low coverage to class 5 = dense coverage) was derived from the Braun-Blanquet method (Braun-Blanquet, 1979). A binomial variable was adopted to create the difficulty of seedling establishment (DIF) according to the shrub height (class 0 = mean height of less than 1.30 m and class 1 = height of more than 1.30 m). The presence of dense and high understory is related to A. araucana seedling establishment (Finckh and Paulsch, 1995, Finckh, 1996, Rechene et al, 2003, Donoso, 2008, Mujica et al, 2009). Nothofagus regeneration was obtained from the forest inventory and was expressed as the number of seedlings per hectare. Current explanations for Nothofagus regeneration success emphasize the advantages on seedling growth rate and seed dispersal (Veblen, 1982; Burns, 1993; Donoso, 1993). The functional differences on gymno-sperm and angiosperm growth rates suggest that A. araucana will be limited in areas where growth of Nothofagus is important, for example, in isolated habitats (Finckh, 1996; Rechene et al., 2003). One variable based on the regeneration condition in the surrounding area was used to avoid the problems associated with plot size and border effect (for example, seedlings located near the plot border). Mean seedling number (BUF) was calculated by averaging the seedling number (REG) over surrounding sample units (110 m). Finally, the A. araucana regeneration condition depends on the seedling size or seedling age. The same procedure used for the other variables was adopted to create the size variable (SIZ) according to the presence of seedlings less than 50 cm or 15 years, seedlings between 50-130 cm or 15-40 years, and seedlings more than 130 cm or 40 years (class 0 = less than 50 cm; class 1 = between 50-130 cm; and class 2 = more than 130 cm). When A. araucana regeneration is less than 50 cm, seedlings are exposed to competition with shrub species, mainly D. winteri var. andina and D. spinosa, and Nothofagus seedlings that colonize gaps faster than Araucaria seedlings. Finally, over 40 years (approximately 130 cm of height in the study area), seedlings can reach a further crown developing or polewood stage (Cavieres, 1987; Drake, 2004).
The following physiographic variables were used: slope, aspect and topographical position. The slope (SLO) and aspect (ASP) variables were derived from the field plot and validated from the digital terrain model at a 30-m resolution. The aspect variable affects the amount of sunlight the plot receives and is expressed as degrees. In Chilean latitudes, places with a northern aspect tend to be warmer and drier than places with a southern aspect. A categorical variable representing the topographical position (POS) within each sample unit was created (class 1 = valley or lower slope area; class 2 = mid-level slope area; and class 3 = upper slope area).
Statistical analysis
Statistical analysis was realized including the above variables with easy identification for forest managers. With principal component analysis (PCA), a large number of variables can be systematically reduced to a smaller and conceptually more coherent set of variables. These principal components are a linear combination of the original variables. The first principal component usually accounts for most of the variation in the variables and successively within the rest of the components.
To assess the spatial autocorrelation of A. araucana regeneration in the models, the following two different predictors were prepared: multivariable regression model and trend, which accounted for spatial autocorrelation of the observed natural regeneration at the landscape level. The multivari-able regression model was created in SPSS 10.0© by a parametric model using a forward stepwise method. Ecological, forest and physiographic variables were used to test modeling alternatives and to provide the best modeling framework. Due to the measurement of A. araucana regeneration (dependent variable) on seedlings per hectare, the model can be applied independently of the forest inventory. In addition, a trend was created by a geostatistical method, which resulted in a smooth surface capturing coarse-scale pattern of A. araucana regeneration based on random field values and their spatial distributions. GARP and Maxent models (geostatistical methods) can test the regeneration of an unsampled area using ecological niche-modeling algorithms (Baldwin, 2009; Costa et al, 2010). Both methods attempt to identify correlations between the presence or absence of natural regeneration and environmental parameters. Maxent models fit a probability distribution for A. araucana regeneration based on the principle that the best explanation of unknown phenomena will maximize the entropy of the probability distribution (Phillips et al, 2006). A given location may be allocated to an absence or presence set depending on whether a given regeneration might or might not be present (binary variable). The environmental variables most closely associated with the presence of regeneration can be extrapolated to similar biotopes to identify the probable spatial patterns of the seedlings. Multivariate data analysis is a crucial part of the methodology (Mota et al, 2002, Moreno et al, 2011). The model starts with a uniform distribution and performs a number of iterations based on the most significant environmental variables until no further improvements in the prediction are made.
Similar to other studies (Moreno et al, 2011), 25% of the sample plots were used to test whether Maxent predictions (training dataset) were better than random predictions. Maxent models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot on the training and test datasets. Maxent models use the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the model statistically and are among the statistics most frequently used to assess ecological modeling (Peterson and Nakazawa, 2008; Baldwin, 2009; Costa et al, 2010, Moreno et al, 2011). According to the Maxent model, each grid cell of the study area predicted to have the best conditions for natural regeneration will have the cumulative value of 1, and cumulative values close to 0 indicate predictions of unsuitable conditions.
Results and discussion
Field inventory
Three stands were identified with 99.07 hectares (81 plots), 3.72 hectares (2 plots) and 5.97 hectares (6 plots) according to the stand structure (Table 2). The distance among the sample units was calculated as 110 meters according to the square root between each stand area and plot number depending on the standard deviation (Consejería de Medio Ambiente, 2004). Although many additional variables, such as stump diameter (before prohibition of A. araucana cutting), crown diameter and understory composition, were collected during the inventory, only a summary of the following five most important variables was presented: canopy composition, stand density, Araucaria density, Araucaria diameter and Araucaria height. The canopy composition was dominated by mixed A. araucana/N. dombeyi/N. pumilio forests (Table 2). Although the stand density was significantly reduced in stand 2, Araucaria density was the most variable parameter. The stand diameter was significantly increased in stand 2 as compared to stands 1 and 3. Finally, Araucaria height was significantly reduced in stand 3.
A. araucana regeneration tended to be less than or equal to 3 seedlings at 72% of the total sample units (100 m2). The lack of natural regeneration may have been due to seed production and seed predation by rodents. The forest inventory showed that 75% of the plots were without seedling trees and, consequently, had a low regeneration condition. In 30.34% of these sampling units, the A. araucana trees were in old growth conditions, which resulted in unsuitable seed production. More than 3 A. araucana seedlings per plot (100 m2) were associated with the presence of seedling trees, which was a unique factor and was not enough to explain the observed A. araucana regeneration pattern.
In general, A. araucana regeneration was related to the presence of high Nothofagus regeneration levels. In 91.30% of the plots with low A. araucana regeneration (< 3 seedling per plot), more than 7 Nothofagus seedlings were present. In 87.5% of the plots with more than 100 Nothofagus seedlings, low levels of A. araucana regeneration were present. In some plots, there was a good level of regeneration with less than 15 years, but advanced stages of seedling development were not present. A. araucana seedlings with more than 15 years were only present in 13.43% of the total sample units. Shrub coverage was more than 75 in 79.10% of the study area. C. quila had an aggressive behavior, reaching up to 1.30 m (breast height) in 31.34% of the total sampling units. A. araucana regeneration of each plot was related to the surrounding plots (within less than 110 meters). A portion (68.75%) of the plots that had no A. araucana regeneration was surrounded by plots with no or low A. araucana regeneration.
Principal component analysis
Principal component analysis transformed the original set of variables into a substantially smaller set of uncorrelated variables that represented most of the information in the original dataset. The total variance in the system was 100%, which was the sum of the variances of the thirteen standardized variables. The variance of the first component was 27.7% (Table 3). Because there were six components, it was possible to explain 76% of the total variance of the thirteen variables. The remaining components were difficult to assign variance due to the high variability of the dataset. Thus, the first seven components only accounted for 80% of the variance.
Multiple regression models
Different regressions were planned to measure the relative goodness of each model using 89 field plots (Table 4). The selection stopped when models could not add improvements according to the coefficient of determination (R2), Durbin-Watson statistic and Alaike information criterion (AIC). The differences in R2, which is an indicator of model predictability and goodness, and in AIC, which is an indicator of model size, were of particular importance (Burnham and Anderson, 2002). According to the coefficient of determination evaluation, the best performances were obtained with models 1, 7 and 8. Based on AIC, the best performances (lowest values) were obtained with models 14, 9 and 7.
Geostatistical model
The geostatistical models performed better than the random models in explaining the presence or absence of A. araucana regeneration. The performance and stability of the geostatistical models were significantly higher (P≤0.01) than the random models. The AUC values over all models ranged from 0.974 for model 5 to 0.989 for model 1. Model 1 performed better than model 7 when using training data (Table 5). However, model 7 was more stable than model 1 when using test data. A second group with reasonably good models included models 2 and 4.
Table 6 shows the contribution of each variable within the selected models (model contribution in Maxent). The seedling tree presence (SED) and aspect (ASP) variables had the highest contributions in the models, followed by the SIZ and BUF variables. Stand density (DEN) and Araucaria density (ARA) also had an important role. The contributions of canopy composition (COM) and shrub coverage (BRU) were low, and these variables were not retained for more than one-third of the models.
Management implications
The study of regeneration conditions is essential for forestry management at the landscape level to preserve A. araucana cultural and social importance (Donoso and Lara, 1995, Aagesen, 1998, Donoso, 2006). The field inventory allowed the study area to be generalized as an area with low regeneration conditions. Although seedling establishment may be limited by masting, seed predation and understory competition (Donoso, 2008, Mujica et al., 2009, Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2009, Sanguinetti and Kitzberger, 2010), stand 2 presented serious problems for seed production due to the presence of less than 25 A. araucana trees per hectare. In addition, more of these trees did not obtain a suitable seed production because they were not identified as female trees in the 50-100-cm diameter class according to previous studies (Enright et al., 1999; Drake, 2004).
The absence of disturbances in the study area is the main factor controlling the dynamics of the Araucaria/Nothofagus forests (Schmidt, 1977, Schmidt et al., 1980, Veblen, 1982, Donoso, 1993). A. araucana seedling establishment can be influenced by fast-growing species and dense understory. In the study area, the presence of Nothofagus seedlings with more than 50 cm of height was related to the absence or a low level ofA. araucana regeneration. Although the above trends can be explained by different seed dispersion conditions, angiosperm dominance and gymnosperm persistence (Bond, 1989), the high competition of Nothofagus seedlings and Chusquea understory may be explained by the limited A. araucana seedling establishment (Mujica et al., 2009) and by the isolated stands (Finckh, 1996; Rechene et al., 2003).
Despite the many factors that influence the A. araucana regeneration condition (Veblen, 1982; Donoso, 1993, 2006), the first seven components (PCA) explained 82.4% of the variance in the thirteen variables. The dimensionality of the observations was reduced from thirteen to seven variables showing a 17.6% variance reduction. The multivariable statistical analysis was designed based on the PCA results. Model 7 was the best compromise between model goodness and mode size (coefficient of determination, Durbin-Watson statistic, and Alaike information criterion) among the thirteen models tested. Although some authors have recommended the use of different AIC methods based on the information theory (Burnham and Anderson, 2002), the ranking of the selection methods in the present study contradicted the AIC methods but was similar to other regression analysis studies (Maggini et al, 2006). AIC is too permissive in providing the lower bound for the set of adequate models (Kuha, 2004).
Alternatives to regression analysis have been developed in recent years based on models where variables do not need to be properly selected but are given a decreasing weight according to their influence on the model. Several methods, such as GARP or Maxent models, can predict natural regeneration based on random field values and the spatial distribution of the regeneration. The differences between the GARP and Maxent models can be observed in their potential distribution results. While Maxent models produce more detailed fine-grained predictions and are additive, GARP models tend to produce overpredictions (Phillips et al, 2006; Baldwin, 2009; Costa et al., 2010). The general spatial trend significantly improved model performance and stability. According to the classification of Swets (1988) (0.5-0.7 poor discrimination ability, 0.7-0.9 reasonable discrimination, and 0.9-1 very good discrimination), the area under the curve (AUC) obtained in the different models showed very good discrimination ability.
There is not an objective rule concerning the choice of which variables to limit. A common practice is to choose the most influential variables, such as seedling tree and aspect, to predict the spatial patterns of regeneration. The variables in model 7 were limited due to their statistical results (R2, Durbin-Watson statistic, AIC and AUC). Seedling tree presence represented the main environmental variable, with a model contribution (as defined in the Maxent model) reaching 80% in some cases. The aspect variable was also important. The SIZ variable can be used as a surrogate for the stand structure as information for the competition level for both the ground and canopy layers. A. araucana seedlings with more than 15 years were present in areas with less competition, which were areas where Araucaria seedlings colonized more successfully. SIZ variable contribution was particularly important (up to 10%) for models 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10 and 14. Schwarz et al. (2003) provided empirical evidence that factors, such as competition or seed dispersal, have an important role in determining spatial patterns of regeneration for many tree species in forested landscapes. In the present study, this neighboring factor was expressed by the BUF variable, which mainly accounted for plot size limitation, gap distribution and surrounding seedling tree presence. The contribution of the BUF variable was relatively low compared with the other variables (up to 10% for models 8, 11 and 14), but the contribution of the BUF variable was still significant. In the study area, a good level of A. araucana regeneration was confined to aggregated sample units, and the regeneration distribution was frequently identified by clumped spatial distribution.
Several authors (Zhang et al., 2005) have recommended the use of the geography information system (GIS) and weighted regression to show a potential trend when ecological and/or statistical evidence of spatial autocorrelation is found. Technical recommendations can be identified with the help of GIS by the analysis of the following parameters: current regeneration condition, seedling tree presence, A. araucana density and slope (Figure 2). Protection from disturbances existed in clumps with high or medium regeneration levels and a slope greater than 15%. Treatments were not recommended in areas with a mean slope greater than 15%, poor regeneration and a lack of seeding trees due to high costs (Table 7). In clumps with a mean slope of less than 15%, it was suggested to remove trees in the old-growth stage in a series of Nothofagus cuttings to establish a cohort of seeding trees in an advanced regeneration stage (shelterwood method). The shelterwood method is related to improvement cutting or regenerative cutting. The former cutting method was suggested to remove the old trees and create favorable conditions for A. araucana seedling establishment. Improvement cuttings are aimed primarily at controlling the stand growth by adjusting stand density and/or canopy composition. Finally, in poor regeneration areas with a mean slope less of than 15%, the technical recommendation depended on the seeding tree presence. When seeding trees existed, Nothofagus regenerative cutting and brushing out was suggested. If seeding trees were absent, clearing and clumping enrichment through plantation was suggested. Thus, there was an A. araucana plantation in the study area with an 85% successful survival rate in living plants after 23 years. Finally, some diseases and blights can affect A. araucana stands (Valenzuela et al., 1997), so phytosanitary treatments should be implemented to improve the regeneration condition.
This study considered A. araucana sustainable management and not the complete cutting of A. araucana. The ecophysiographic approach for A. araucana regeneration has the advantage of simplicity and is easier to express as a mathematical function, which is used in a GIS for the decision-making process in forest management. Silvicultural actions can be conducted to improve the dynamic succession taking into account the current regeneration condition. On many private lands, the species harvested for sustainable forest management can provide an income to improve A. araucana landscapes (Drake, 2004).
The future sustainability of A. araucana forests may require comprehensive action at the landscape level. Given the current budgetary constraints, measures for landscape conservation acquire a prominent role. An ecophysiographic approach for A. araucana regeneration management may assure the sustainability management of some emblematic stands. The final model should depend on the available data and on the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation and spatial prediction are useful in the search for the best modeling approach. GIS increases the flexibility of this methodology, thus enabling an extrapolation to other territories. However, one should not forget to consider the particular characteristics of each area. Therefore, the use of an ecophysiographic approach should aid managers in developing different management strategies for native forest conservation.
This research was partially supported by grant No. 207.141.018-1.0 from the Research Service of Concepción University (Chile) and by grant B/6585/06 of the Spanish Agency of International Cooperation (AECI) from the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation (Spain).
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Received December 20, 2010. Accepted September 15, 2011.
Corresponding author: email@example.com


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Sep-14-2009 DCA & HMFA Welcome Edgewater Park to 'Live Where You Work' Homebuyer Program
DCA & HMFA Welcome Edgewater Park to 'Live Where You Work' Homebuyer Program
EDGEWATER PARK TWP. - Edgewater Park Township Mayor Donna Mount today joined New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency (HMFA) Executive Director Marge Della Vecchia at the Mildred Magowan School, 415 Cherrix Avenue, to announce that Edgewater Park is the newest member of the Live Where You Work Program. Edgewater Park is the 19th municipality to partner with the HMFA on this workforce housing initiative.
"Live Where You Work complements the efforts of Governor Corzine to revitalize communities. The program promotes homeownership and makes it possible for people to live closer to their jobs," said HMFA Executive Director Della Vecchia. "Mayor Mount and Edgewater Park are to be commended for their commitment to the residents of this township and more municipalities are encouraged to join the program.
Executive Director Della Vecchia expressed that the HMFA believes that now is a great time to buy a home and that Live Where You Work can make homeownership a reality for many families.
The Live Where You Work Program is a workforce housing initiative that provides low-interest, fixed rate mortgage loans to homebuyers purchasing homes in towns where they are employed. Additional program benefits include down payment and closing cost assistance for the purchase of a home within Smart Growth areas and flexible underwriting criteria for the loan qualification process.
Homes must be located in a municipality that has become a Live Where You Work partner with HMFA, which is an affiliate of the Department of Community Affairs (DCA). The Live Where You Work initiative further enhances Governor Corzine's efforts to revitalize and build sustainable communities that encourage greener environments, access to public transportation and affordable housing opportunities for residents.
As a result of Edgewater Park's partnership with the HMFA, people working in the township who are interested in buying a home in the community will be able to take advantage of Live Where You Work program incentives.
"Many residents of Edgewater Park who have grown up here have decided to come back to the community to both work and raise their families, myself included," said Mayor Mount. "We are looking at this as a way to help those families that have been in Edgewater Park for a number of years and those that are new to our community. We have several new, young teachers starting out in our schools and it would be great for them to take advantage of this program by purchasing homes in Edgewater Park."
Live Where You Work is administered by the HMFA. Trenton, Jersey City, Woodbridge, Elizabeth, Atlantic City, Rahway, Morristown, Evesham, Neptune Township, Bayonne, Carteret, New Brunswick, Paterson, Glassboro, Orange, Keyport, Newark, and Washington Township (Gloucester County) are all taking part in the program.
To learn about how to get a Live Where You Work mortgage, please call 1-800-NJHOUSE. For more information about how municipalities can join Live Where You Work, please call 609-278-7478. Or, you can visit the Live Where You Work website at www.livewhereyouwork.nj.gov.

subset: commoncrawl


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It's no surprise our mountainous area inspired lots of singers.
1) "Rocky Top"
"Rocky Top, you'll always be home sweet home to me. Good ole Rocky Top, Rocky Top Tennessee, Rocky Top Tennessee."
When Rocky Top rings outs, you know "It's Football Time in Tennessee." For die hard Vols fans - a day without "Rocky Top" is a day without sunshine.
Once there was a girl on rocky top, Half bear the other half cat. Wild as a mink, sweet as soda pop, I still dream about that."
*We haven't been able to verify the existence of "Half bear, half cat" anywhere in East Tennessee, but we're still looking.
2) "A Boy Named Sue"
"Well, it was Gatlinburg in mid-July. And I just hit town and my throat was dry, I thought I'd stop and have myself a brew. At an old saloon on a street of mud, There at a table, dealing stud, Sat the dirty, mangy dog that named me "Sue."
Johnny Cash's "A Boy Name Sue" probably doesn't paint East Tennessee in the best light, but it does prove that we've got a lot of grit. If you travel to Gatlinburg, we suggest you don't follow in the Man in Black's footsteps - that's a good way to get arrested. Another suggestion - don't name your boy Sue.
3) "My Tennessee Mountain Home"
In my Tennessee mountain home, Life is as peaceful as a baby's sigh. In my Tennessee mountain home, Crickets sing in the fields near by."
If you mention East Tennessee and music in the same sentence and don't include Dolly Parton, then "Bless Your Heart." Nothing says East Tennessee better than Dolly's "My Tennessee Mountain Home." 'Nuff said.
4) "Back Where I Come From"
"Some say it's a backward place, narrow minds on a narrow wage. But I make it a point to say, that's where I come from."
Kenny Chesney is perhaps one of the most famous faces from East Tennessee. The country superstar hales from Luttrell and graduated from Gibbs High School. His hit "Back Where I Come From" definitely resonates for many who call East Tennessee home.
Perhaps one of the most memorable, Knoxville concerts of all time was when Kenny took the stage in Neyland Stadium during the summer of 2003. Before a packed stadium of roaring fans, Kenny belted out, "I'm an old East Tennessean. Well I'm proud as anyone. That's where I come from."
We're proud of you too, Kenny!
5) "All My Ex's Live In Texas"
"All my ex's live in Texas. And Texas is the place I'd dearly love to be. But all my ex's live in Texas. And that's why I hang my hat in Tennessee."
Nothing is scarier than a woman's scorn. And George Strait's "All My Ex's Live is Texas" can definitely attest to that fear. Fortunately for George, there's lots of great hide outs in our area, but he better think twice before he crosses a East Tennessee woman.
6) "Wagon Wheel"
"Walkin' to the south out of RoanokeI, caught a trucker out of Philly had a nice long toke. But he's a-heading west from the Cumberland Gap to Johnson City, Tennessee. I gotta get a move on before the sun. I hear my baby calling my name and I know that she's the only one. And if I die in Raleigh at least I will die free."
"Wagon Wheel" is about a hitchhiking journey that winds through the Cumberland Gap and Johnson City. Several artists have made this song a hit - Old Crow Medicine Show, Darius Rucker, etc.
But I bet you didn't know Bob Dylan penned many lyrics in this song. Rolling Stone's Andy Greene said "Wagon Wheel" actually stems from Dylan's "Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid" soundtrack series. According to the article, Old Crow Medicine Show's Critter Fuqua got a bootleg copy of the "Pat Garrett." His bandmate Ketch Secor said he couldn't make out Dylan's mumbled lyrics at times, so the song changed a bit when Secor wrote out the verses. The rest is history.
7) "The Ballad of Thunder Road"
"Blazing' right through Knoxville, out on Kingston Pike. Then right outside of Bearden, there they made the fatal strike. He left the road at ninety, that's all there is to say. The devil got the moonshine and the mountain boy that day."
"Thunder Road" tells you all you need to know about a Tennessee moonshiner. Not only did Robert Mitchum sing the song, but he also starred in, wrote and produced the movie "Thunder Road," which made this ballad famous.
Bet you'll never think of Kingston Pike the same.
8) "The Tennessee Waltz"
I was dancin' with my darlin' to the Tennessee Waltz. When an old friend I happened to see. I introduced her to my loved one and while they were dancin.' My friend stole my sweetheart from me."
If you've been to the Tennessee Theater on Gay Street in downtown Knoxville, you may have heard its "Mighty Wurlitzer" belt out "The Tennessee Waltz." Redd Stewart and Pee Wee King wrote the song in the 1940s. But the voice of Patti Page made the country favorite a major hit in 1950.
This list would have taken all day, so we had to cut it off at eight. But here's a list of a few honorable mentions:


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The Sex Offender Who Worked As An Ice Cream Man
It's a situation that never should have been able to happen. For the last few weeks, 62-year-old John Alderson has been driving an ice cream truck in Roseville, California. Trouble is Alderson is not legally allowed to work in a position that puts him in unsupervised contact with children. He is a registered sex offender.
Parents from the Roseville area first noticed Alderson driving an ice cream truck over a decade ago. He hadn't been seen for several years, but was back on his old route in April, 2010. By this time people were aware of his sexual offender status, and were outraged that a man who is listed as a child molester was selling ice cream to their children.
Concerned residents worked together to stop Alderson, and inform their neighbors about this terrifying situation. They posted Facebook messages about Alderson and printed flyers that explained his offender status. Local police were also notified, and an investigation was soon underway.
Officers quickly confirmed that the man who was selling ice cream in several Roseville neighborhoods was not eligible to interact with children. Alderson had not applied for a vendor's license, which is also a criminal offense. During the afternoon of April 14, officers stopped the man as he drove his truck near Olympus Junior High School. He was arrested and taken to Roseville City Jail.
Several children witnessed Alderson's arrest, which is expected to lead to some difficult questions. Parents are preparing to explain that it's not always easy to tell whether or not someone is a criminal, so it is essential to be as educated as possible. That's why PeopleFinders offers a Free Sex Offender Alert Program – we want to help you get the facts you need about offenders who may be living near your home or child's school. You can use this information to determine the best way to keep your family safe.
John Alderson is being charged with a misdemeanor, and will have to plead his case in court. Alderson's previous arrest also resulted in a misdemeanor charge, which allowed him to keep his name out of official sex offender databases. Roseville police will investigate this case further, and worried parents hope that this time the name John Alderson will be entered into the national offender database for all to see.
Here at Anyone, Anywhere we report on sexual offenders to help you stay informed and to show you how to get the facts you need to better protect yourself and your family. We'll continue to provide updates about registered offenders throughout the nation. Keep yourself and your family safe and well educated, and thank you for reading the PeopleFinders People Search blog.Tags: Child Molester, Crime, Criminal Records, Sex Offender
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If asked who fathered the printing press, most of us would cite Johannes Gutenberg, a German goldsmith who in the 1400s brought the Bible to the masses. Very few of us would eloquate that a Chinese man named Bi Sheng invented one of the most influential pieces of equipment in history, and this just before 1050 AD. Few would mention that Bi's original press was made using baked clay characters, and was created and fostered in provincial China (including what is now Korea) for hundreds of years prior to Gutenberg's press.
So why do you not hear about the Chinese press? Why is Gutenberg heralded, but Bi Sheng nearly forgotten? The reason is mostly cultural and rooted in what various people groups value as important. The Chinese highly valued (and to a point still value) the hand-written, artful, calligraphic style of their language, and therefore did not see printing as a highly useful technology. The Europeans focused on mass adoption and rapid dissemination of information -- two very different ways of approaching technological advance.
Similarly, we find ourselves at a crossroads in the software development industry, as evolution and distribution of technology are taking multiple paths. But how did we get here?
Over the last few decades as source code became more complex, it became necessary to develop environments around the "code" so that coding itself was more easily addressed. Thus, an evolution in development tools necessarily made it easier to hand-code with new, "wooden typeset" (to include our printing analogy) toolkits.
As the code got even more complex, we found ourselves juggling a number of technologies to complete the simplest of projects. Evolution again crept in. "Metallic," more complex tools were developed to manage the code-writing process and partition it into segments that were easier to address individually alongside each technology concern. Code completion/generation, color coding, refactoring support, and the like, are extensions of this concept, and this is where we presently live with the majority of IDEs and other toolsets.
Despite these advances, today's enterprise developers spend less than half of their day interacting with code. The rest of the time is spent setting up and configuring their work environment, packaging projects, starting and stopping servers, and twiddling their frustrated thumbs while waiting to see how their application will behave -- all the while pulling their hair trying to figure out which one of the many variables in their environment or technology stack is the source of the endless trial-and-error.
When source code alone is the golden hammer, calls for productivity (getting past the trial-and-error stage) are often answered by writing more code in the form of deployment scripts, configuration wizards, persistence and architectural frameworks, and other automation logic -- all of which have little to do with the project at hand. This turns developers into toolsmiths rather than application engineers. But in an industry where less than a third of projects succeed in meeting their scope, time lines, and budget, can we afford to continue fixating on this art of source in the face of global delivery mandates?
Regardless of their chosen tools, or even the number of them being used simultaneously, the overarching message for and from developers is clear: A favored code management solution/environment is necessary to manage how to code each piece of any given project and environmental preferences, and to manage servers and external data sources. If the environment cannot do this and developers have to toolsmith the productivity gap, most find themselves trapped chasing environmental ghosts rather than focusing on the task at hand. But most importantly, developers lose the one constant factor that has remained steady through all these centuries -- time.


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|50 Red Roses
|Approximately 50 cm
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Lebanon is one of the most amazing countries in the Middle East as far as its nature and climate. Is is the only country in the area that does not have a desert. Lebanon boasts a mild climate which allows it to be home to a diverse assortment of flowers and plants. You can find all types of flowers and plants, up to 3,000 species!
Some local Lebanese flowers are Eunomia oppositifolia, Origanum libanoticum, and Hyacinth. There are some flowers which can be found in abundance in Lebanon but are not native to the country, such as Begonia, Cactus, Dahlia, Gerbera, Red eye, and Jasmine. Unfortunately, since some flowers are seasonal, Lebanon does not always have an abundance of these flowers so sometimes they have to be imported into the country. An example of this is red roses which are imported into Lebanon during the winter, that is when ordering online you will notice higher rates than summer time. Flowers in Lebanon are beautiful and scattered all across the country. Most people even have special flower gardens planted by their houses in order to enjoy the beautiful colors and scents.


text: This forum is intended for the discussion of FTA (free-to-air), C-Band and Ku-Band systems (including hardware and installation). FTA discussion is limited to unencrypted signals only (no hacking, etc.) using any fixed Mpeg-2 DVB satellite system. Big Ugly Dish (BUD) discussion is limited to the reception of Analog & Digital (Mpeg-2 DVB & Digicipher II) signals in C-Band and Ku-Band, ranging from Intelsat 707 at 1°West to AMC 8 at 139° West.


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Seeking to save Peter Cottontail from extinction
The New England cottontail was once so common that Massachusetts author Thornton Burgess adapted one named Peter for the children's stories he penned a century ago.
But the critter that inspired "The Adventures of Peter Cottontail" and the enduring song that came later faces an uncertain future. Its natural habitat is disappearing, and without intervention, it could be unhappy trails for the once-bountiful bunny.
Conservationists are hoping a new program to restore shrub lands across the Northeast and captive breeding efforts will help ensure the New England cottontail sticks around for many Easters to come.
"We're making headway, putting habitat on the ground in some really key places," said Anthony Tur, an endangered species specialist for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. "It's encouraging."
New England cottontails were abundant a century ago, thriving in an environment of shrubs, saplings, weeds and vines known as young forest. But in an uncommon turn of events, it is declining human activity to blame for its lost habitat — not urban sprawl.
As neglected agricultural lands reverted back to forest and those forests matured, the population of New England cottontails thinned. More than 80 percent of their habitat disappeared over the past 50 years, according to the nonprofit Wildlife Management Institute.
And now conservationists are trying to prevent the New England cottontail from appearing on the endangered species list, a designation that would require a more urgent — and costly — response that could restrict land use and hunting.
The Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Resources Conservation Service are working with landowners and zoos to restore natural habitat and use captive breeding to rebuild the population.
The government has been conducting habitat management and restoration projects for several years in collaboration with private landowners, land trusts and a few Native American tribes as they try to bring back the New England cottontail.
The New England cottontail is the only rabbit species native to the region east of the Hudson River. And while it has struggled to deal with the changing landscape, a slightly larger cousin has thrived.
Imported to the region for hunting in the early 20th century, the Eastern cottontail has larger eyes that have enabled it to avoid predators better. It multiplied steadily and is now the dominant species in the Northeast, often popping up on roadsides and in gardens.
For conservationists, protecting the New England cottontail from extinction is worthy in and of itself. But habitat restoration also benefits the dozens of other species that thrive in shrub lands, including songbirds, snakes, deer and turkey.
Tom McAvoy, a landowner in Scotland, Conn., was approached by Fish and Wildlife officials in 2011 about restoring his land to help the New England cottontail make a comeback. Inactive for the past 60 years, the former dairy farm was overgrown with invasive plants that prevented ground vegetation from thriving.
He is now opening up portions of dense forest on his land and planting indigenous shrubs on what he now calls Cottontail Farm. The project's scope is five years, but he said he wants to maintain it beyond that as "a legacy" for his family.
"My brother and sons have been involved in the project," McAvoy said. "It's important for me to teach my grandchildren as well, and keeping them active and involved in the stewardship of the land."
He lamented that a lot of farmland in the area is overgrown and unmanaged.
"I don't think many of us are aware until we get active and involved," he said. "I certainly was not until I got involved."
The Roger Williams Park Zoo in Rhode Island began breeding the New England cottontail in captivity two years ago. Officials there have already released 38 young rabbits tagged with radio collars into restored habitats in Rhode Island and New Hampshire. They expect to release 100 more later this year.
"It's a conservation priority in our region," said Lou Perrotti, director of conservation programs at the zoo, "so we're happy to be a part of it and will remain committed."
He said the New England cottontail had not previously been bred in captivity, so his staff is "writing the book on husbandry and reproduction of the species."
At a certain point, Perrotti said, the success of conservation efforts comes down to the creatures themselves.
"The old adage 'they breed like rabbits,'" he said, "doesn't always apply."


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Cat On Duty sign wall art supplied raw
- approximate size 300 mm wide x 400 mm high
- metal sheet thickness 1.6mm
- item is supplied RAW
Salt Metal Art
As we sell by a number of different avenues, stock levels indicated may actually vary. This means there can be a delay of 2-4 day before the item can be sent. If you require a product urgently please contact us first to confirm stock availability and estimated delivery time before purchasing.


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Stewart Varnado (September 11, 1980 - )
Stewart Varnado is a Southern Gospel musician and concert promoter. He was born September 11, 1980.


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Vacuum cleaners are designed to absorb dust from floors and other surfaces, using suction created by an air pump in the unit. Besides the manually operated type, robotic or autonomous vacuum cleaners have also been designed to make the task easier. Vacuum cleaners are extensively used in the residential sector and demand for residential robotic vacuum cleaners is expected to increase substantially over the next five to six years. Residential robotic vacuum cleaners can be programmed to navigate around a specific space and then return to its respective docking station in order to recharge the unit's batteries. Components of robotic vacuum cleaners include programming software, power system, cleaning system and batteries. Besides floor cleaning capability, some units are able to absorb dust from the atmosphere, and even clean hard-to-reach corners. Robotic vacuum cleaners are also designed to perform tasks such as mopping and UV sterilization. Robotic vacuum cleaners offer ease of access, enhanced reliability and performance, and cost-effective cleaning solutions
Rising awareness among consumers about a clean dust-free environment and the need for convenience is expected to fuel demand for residential robotic vacuum cleaners. Benefits such as removing allergens from the atmosphere, easier handling in terms of navigation and design support the demand for residential robotic vacuum cleaners across the globe. However, low customer awareness, product acceptance as compared to conventional vacuum cleaners in emerging countries and high price of product are among the key factors expected to hamper market growth. In addition, battery issues could restrict adoption of robotic vacuum cleaners in the residential sector as consumers are becoming increasingly tech-savvy, with demand for effective products irrespective of price being a prime concern across the globe. Furthermore, development of sophisticated and advanced technology-equipped robotic vacuum cleaners is a major concern companies must consider while entering the market.
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To overcome price sensitivity, companies across the globe are innovating solutions such as touchscreen option, voice recognition control and automatic return to charging station, among others. These technological developments can be leveraged by companies entering the market in the near future, which is expected to enhance competition among existing players in the market. For instance, introduction of residential robotic vacuum cleaners equipped with home security functionality in South Korea is expected to drive large-scale adoption, due to which players are exploring options to enter the residential robotic vacuum cleaner market.
The residential robotic vacuum cleaner market is segmented on the basis of robot type, mode of charging and applications. Based on type of robot, the classification includes in-house robots and outdoor robots. Tasks such as sweeping, mopping and floor-washing inside the home are performed by in-house robots. Outdoor robots are used to perform tasks such as window-washing and automatic pool cleaning, among others. Residential robotic vacuum cleaners come with two modes of charging: manual and auto battery charging. On the basis of applications, the classification includes floor sweeping, removing hazardous particles from the air and dust filtering, among others. On the basis of geography, the market is segmented into North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Japan, the Middle East and Asia Pacific.
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IRobot Corp. has a wide product portfolio of robotic vacuum cleaners, which offer services such as room-to-room navigation, self-charging, edge-cleaning and self-adjusting cleaning head. These devices are categorized on the basis of functionalities being performed for different cleaning patterns and modes. Recently, a new product – iRobot Bravaa – was launched, which is capable of providing assistance for cleaning hard surfaces effectively, as compared to other available products such as Roomba and Scooba. Apart from iRobot Corp., the prominent players in the residential robotic vacuum cleaner market include Electrolux, LG Electronics, Inc., Hanool Robotics, ECOVACS, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Neato Robotics, Inc., Pentair Ltd., iRobot Corp., Metapo, Inc. and Mastsutek Enterprise Co. Ltd.
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Two large earthquake faults could expose the Panama Canal to serious shaking and perhaps damage, say geologists who have uncovered 1,400 years of fault ruptures in the area.
Worse than that, however is the threat to Panama City, which houses a third of the nation's population -- many in buildings that could become death traps in a major quake.
The threat comes from the Limon and Pedro Miguel faults in Central Panama which have ruptured both together and separately in the past. A team of seismologists sorted out the history of the past quakes by deciphering extensive changes in the landscape -- like streams offset several feet or meters -- and shifts in at least one historical road.
The analysis on the seismic history and hazards of central Panama was published in the latest issue of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. The study was done at the behest of the Panama Canal Authority, which is in the process of expanding and upgrading the canal so it can handle much larger ships carrying far more cargo.
The Panama Canal was originally built from 1904 to 1914, when cargo ships were a a lot smaller than today. The new canal, which is scheduled for completion by 2014, will allow much larger ships to traverse the 48-mile-wide isthmus separating the Pacific from the Caribbean and Atlantic waters.
"An earthquake (in 1621) offset the Camino de Cruces that the Spanish used to get gold to Panama City," said Thomas Rockwell of San Diego State University. The centuries-old cobblestone road was cut by one of the faults and offset about 10 feet. A similar sort of offset could cross the canal itself.
Paleoseismic investigations by Rockwell and his colleagues show that both the Limon and Pedro Miguel faults are active, recur frequently with large quakes and can shift the ground from 1.5 to 3 meters (4.9 to 9.8 feet).
The oldest rupture the seismologists found was on the Pedro Miguel fault, and appears to have been in 455 A.D. However, the last Pedro Miguel quake and the third Limon fault rupture are both dated to about 700 A.D. This could mean both faults unzipped at the same time.
"There was a general perception before this (study) that there weren't any earthquakes," said Rockwell. This was despite the fact there was a magnitude 7.9 quake in 1882, which also created a tsunami. "They have historical earthquakes (but) that just wasn't part of the thoughts of engineers."
Geologically speaking, there is every reason to expect earthquakes in Panama, since the land there was created by the ongoing collision of tectonic plates, Rockwell explained. The new assessment will likely be used in the design of the new canal locks. But what really worried Rockwell and other seismologists is Panama City and the large lake, Lago Gatun, in the middle of the isthmus, which is held back by two aging dams.
"This is a very real issue," said seismologist Mary Lou Zoback. "There have been hints at this (quake history and threat) but we hadn't a comprehensive picture. I'm quite honestly much more concerned about Panama City. It is a very large fault and has a potential for a very large earthquake."
Panama's population is about 3.3 million. About 1.2 million of those people live in Panama City, Zoback pointed out. Many live in homes made with heavy, un-reinforced blocks on steep hillsides that could easily collapse in a strong earthquake, she said.
Then there is the huge Lago Gatun, which supplies the water to the locks that make the canal function.
"The real concern is if you breach one of the dams and drain the lake, it would take 10 years to refill it," said Rockwell. "So it's not just a matter of repairing. This would ruin Panama's economy."


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The updated Nike+ Sportband has arrived!
Last year, Nike introduced the first Sportband to accompany the popular iPod-linked systems, and, although it was an initial success, time proved that the device had some flaws. The black backgroud and gold digits were difficult to read. The seal around the face wasn't effectively "sealed" and moisture eventually wreaked havoc with the display and its ability to download the information it had recorded. Nike ultimately pulled the product from shelves and participation in its planned 08-08-08 worldwide race was somewhat diminished.
This summer, the improved Nike+ Sportband finally arrived, and it has some vast improvements. The face is now a more easily read LCD which is fully sealed, and it comes in two colors (with more expected later). So far, none of our experience with this new version leads us to believe that the bugs from the first generation will occur with the second (but is it too early to tell?). Rumor has it that Nike will eventually add a heart-rate monitoring version of the SportBand system since their previous speed/distance/HR systems are no longer in production.
At $60, it is a much more affordable means to track your speed and distance when compared with GPS units which typically run $300-350. The kit includes a sensor that fits into the midsole of most Nike running shoes or it can be attached to the laces of non-Nike shoes with a small pouch. With technology similar to that used in a Wii handheld device, the sensor determines your speed and transmits it to the Sportband which is keeping track of your time. While your running or walking, the user can scroll through the screen and see his/her current pace, total time, total distance, and calories burned.
After the workout, the face of the Sportband pops off of the wristband and plugs into the USB port of your computer allowing you to download your workout to a free Nike Plus account which is accessed through iTunes. Your NikePlus account can be used to simply keep track of your personal history, or, if you like, you can compete in contests with other Nike+ users around the world. Another Human Race 10K is scheduled for 10-24-09!
Release of the new Nike+ SportBand has been limited, but we have plenty of them in stock. Drop by and check 'em out soon – if you wait until the holidays, they may be difficult to find.


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Metro: Last Light is a shooter. But it's nothing like a Call of Duty, and developers 4A Games resent that comparison.
Metro: Last Light is much more about an Eastern perspective on a post-apocalyptic, everything-went-and-got-crazy world. Mutants large and small still terrorize Moscow, as they did in the first Metro title. And I imagine they're pretty pissed that—Metro 2033 spoilers—you nuked them in the previous game.
Fast forwarding after the events of the first Metro title, Last Light shows a defrosted world, with weather change seeing occasional rays of sunlight and rain. Not the kind of refreshing rain that's fun to stand in and stomp your rain boots into, mind you. More the kind that can burn through your gloves as they're gripped around the handle of a shotgun prepared to shoot psychic mutants with. So Moscow is still pretty much a dilapidated, mutant-infested hellhole, but at least it's a somewhat sunny one.
Many of the Metro game staples have transferred over to this new title. Things like surviving off of gas masks—kept track of by a timer on your watch—and recharging your headlight are still present. But there are a few additions that help immerse you in the dire world where survival seems bleak. Spiders and bugs will splat on your mask, and Artyom will wipe the smeared blood and goo away. Your ears ring with the sound of close-range gunfire and lightning strikes. He still hunts desperately for oxygen replenishments and ammunition, too.
As Artyom and his new companion—Pavel—explore the calamitous outdoors, they stumble on a plane wreckage. Pavel says he's heard of the tall tales of souls trapped on the rusting plane. Unfortunately for the two soldiers they're not so tall, and Artyom starts to have shooting visions obstruct his sanity. After a vision of the plane crash, where the pilots witness grand explosions signifying the start of war, Artyom comes to and sees Pavel still in the clutches of a similar hallucination. Artyom is less susceptible to the mutants' effects, so he's able to help his companion come back to reality before he suffocates from removing his gas mask.
When we first met Artyom he was young and loyal. He's grown a lot through his experiences in the metro of Moscow, and Metro: Last Light will see this expand and unravel a character impacted by the events of this world that's been burned to the ground.
THQ's head of global communications, Huw Beynon, explains that Last Light will have a much stronger, well-executed focus on stealth and story. A 15-minute hands-off demonstration is hard to penetrate that, but I'm creeped out enough by this world to look forward to seeing more.


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Rocker Rags Launches Rocker Baby Product Category Featuring Rock and Roll Baby Onesies
E-Commerce website Rocker Rags launches Rocker Baby, a brand new website product category devoted to rock and roll baby onesie infant romper suits with bands' and singers' names, song titles and artwork.
Nov 21, 2012, 10:15 ET
LOS ANGELES, Nov. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Rock n Roll clothing e-commerce website, Rocker Rags, has launched Rocker Baby, focused on rock and roll baby onesies. Rocker Baby is the first new product category since Rocker Rags went live and contains one piece infant romper suits with well-known rock group and artist names, song titles and artwork. The founder of Rocker Rags, David Landis, known both professionally and socially by his nickname, Lando, said "Ever since launching Rocker Rags, one question we have been repeatedly asked is if and when we would start carrying rock n roll clothing & merchandise for babies. In fact, before we even officially launched Rocker Baby, we had already sold some onesies to brand new first time customers."
Rocker Baby's infant onesies mirror Rocker Rags' selection of groups and artists available in t-shirt form for adults. Rocker Rags prides itself on selling items from a huge cross section of rock music, rather than focusing on any specific genre. The Rocker Baby rompers include bands as varied as The Beatles and Jimi Hendrix, to Lynyrd Skynyrd, to The Ramones and Red Hot Chili Peppers.
In addition to rock & roll oriented t-shirts and now baby onesies, Rocker Rags carries a variety of rock music inspired apparel and accessories. Since its launch, the e-commerce website has been very customer service oriented and charitably minded. The site offers free standard shipping every day, with no minimum order required, to any destination in the United States including Puerto Rico and all US military bases.
The company has aligned itself with the Layne Staley Memorial Fund, founded in honor of the late Alice in Chains lead singer, and donates 5% of all sales to this charity. Rocker Rags also donates a portion of all sales to the Concern Foundation for Cancer Research, a fund raising organization helping find a cure for all forms of cancer.
In honor of Rocker Baby's launch, Rocker Rags is having a site wide sale, starting today and continuing through next Tuesday (November 27). All customers using the code "rockerbaby" will receive 20% off any purchases.
SOURCE Rocker Rags


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Estrada's rehab back on track
MILWAUKEE -- Brewers manager Ron Roenicke had better news to report on Friday about right-hander Marco Estrada, who appears back on track in his return from a left hamstring injury.
Estrada, whose comeback was slowed before the All-Star break by back tightness, threw a successful bullpen session on Thursday, according to Roenicke, and will throw sessions on Saturday and Sunday, followed by live batting practice three days later. Assuming no more setbacks, Estrada would then begin a Minor League rehabilitation assignment expected to span three starts.
"The way it's mapped out, we're still looking at a couple weeks, maybe into August," Roenicke said. "The hamstring is OK, and the back is fine now. So we're basically starting him over like we would in Spring Training."
Estrada was the Brewers' No. 2 starter coming out of Spring Training and was 4-4 with a 5.32 ERA in his first 12 starts.