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This really should have been a post for the "W" week of the Gould Genealogy Alphabet challenge, but I have another "W" word in mind for that week (guess which word that will be). To be precise, "W is for…Wesleyan Methodist" would have been more apt as it is the branch of Methodism that the Harman family followed, but due to an overload of "W"'s, I'll turn it upside down and make it "M is for…Methodist".
What did I know about Methodism before I discovered the Harman's faith? Nothing except for a link to temperance. Therefore, over the years I have tried to find out more about the religion as I think it is definitive in finding out more of what the Harmans were really like, especially James and his brother Walter who were Local Preachers with the church.
It was the role of a local preacher I discovered was one of the characteristics of Methodism. This from the Advocate of Burnie on 16 August 1952 gives something of the background:
I have also found that James did preach at Hamilton Methodist Church on occasions, found in the history Uniting we now stand: a history of the Hamilton Methodist Church by Joan A. Smith (1999). The Hamilton church was originally at 41 McIntyre Street before moving to Lonsdale Street in 1913. In May this year, a gathering was held recognising 150 years of Methodism in Hamilton.
The Byaduk Methodist Church built 1864, was the first church in the town and a weatherboard Sunday School was added in 1889. Located on the Hamilton/Port Fairy Road which runs through the town the Byaduk church, along with the Hamilton church, are now Uniting Churches. This came about after three churches, the Methodist, Presbyterian and Congregational came together in 1977.
Prior to the Byaduk church's construction services were held in the home of John B. Smith, an early leader of the Wesleyan Methodist Church in Victoria. In 1866, Smith went to Portland and travelled a circuit which took him throughout the south-west. His recollections were published in the Portland Guardian of 25 June 1928. If you have Kittson, Lightbody or Hedditch links, this is worth reading in full.
Smith was also a co-author of the book The Early Story of the Wesleyan Methodist Church in Victoria available online. Of course, there is a lot in the book about John Smith himself who ".. had a clear grasp of the plan of salvation, and a touching and pathetic way of speaking of the "wrath to come"."(p.269).
Also of Smith:
"The well-worn family Bible used morning, noon, and night for family worship, told of his love for the Psalms and the words of the Lord Jesus and few could use them (even the deep vast words of the fourth gospel), or the plaintive phrases of the Psalms, or the less familiar lines of shaded beauty found in our Hymn Book, with greater feeling and effect" (p269)
"The influence of this holy man of God and of other kindred spirits make Byaduk a bright spot in the Hamilton Circuit, while the personal worth and , social standing of Mr. Peter Learmonth as a Christian and a citizen, and the active sympathy and generous help of the Wiggins' and Learmonths' on the one hand, and the ungrudging labours of devoted Local Preachers on the other, have served to sustain the cause and comfort the Minister's heart"(p270)
Peter Fraser in Early Byaduk Settlers, describes an early Methodist service at Byaduk:
"They conducted the services differently from now. In singing hymns. the preacher read a verse and the congregation sang the verse, then he read another and the congregation sang it and so on to the end of the hymn. In prayers, most of the congregation knelt; and when the preacher was praying, some in the congregation would sing out AMEN, BE IT SO HALLELUIAH and other words, while others in the congregation would grunt and groan all the time, but it must have been a nuisance to the preacher as the Methodist Ministers stopped it many years ago." (p. 14)
Peter also names some of the local preachers of which there was an abundance. They included Mr John Henry Oliver senior, father-in-law of Jonathon and Reuben Harman, and his son John Henry junior. Also Daniel Love, John Holmes and Samuel Clarke, just to name a few. George Holmes senior, father in law of Julia Harman, was superintendent of the Sunday School for over forty years.
James and Walter seemed the most devout of the Harman family, with both spreading the word as local preachers. Also, Walter and his wife Lydia established the Sunday School at Ensay and Walter travelled many miles preaching. Walter's son Henry was an elder of the Omeo Methodist Church and I have previously told the story of the Omeo Methodist Minister Ronald Griggs. The church closed ranks around Griggs and continued to support him at the time of his murder trial in 1928.
The post In Search of the Extraordinary Monster looks at the Port Fairy Methodist church. Port Fairy was the home of the Harman family before they moved to Byaduk
Reuben James Harman, son of James and my gg grandfather, was buried in the Methodist section of the Ballarat New Cemetery, with the faith continuing on to the next generation.
I know there is so much more to find about the Harman family link to the Wesleyan Methodist Church. My ggg grandfather was a great servant of the church and saw some changes during its development in Byaduk and Hamilton. He was still alive when the Hamilton Methodist Church moved to Lonsdale Street, but a major change occurred a year after his death. In 1917, the Methodist Church of Australia at its Melbourne conference ruled that local preachers were to become known as lay preachers.
A post on the website Gospel Australia has a great post "Poor Old Tom Brown". I have included the link but now the site is only working intermittently. It describes a man who was a Local Preacher in New South Wales and he is very much how I imagine James Harman to have been.
If you have Western District family members who were Methodists, I highly recommend you read The Early Story of the Wesleyan Methodist Church in Victoria. Various towns throughout the Western District were represented along with many names. Other areas of Victoria are also covered.
There is one question about the Harmans and their Methodist faith that I may never have answered. Why did Joseph Harman, father of James and Walter, change his religion from Methodist to Presbyterian by the time of his death in 1893? Mentioned in his obituary in Hamilton Spectator it has had me wondering ever since I first read it.


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subset: commoncrawl


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Midwest Living Holiday Cookbook 2011
Pear-Shaped Sake Cheese Ball
Fruity preserves enhance this four-cheese appetizer. Mold into your favorite fruit for a fun spin on the traditional shape.
Devilishly Good Deviled Eggs
A hint of curry and some chutney elevate these deviled eggs to spectacular. Spoon the filling into a sandwich-size clear plastic bag and snip a corner for easy piping.
Old Blue Eyes Martini
We converted shot measures used by P.J. Barrera at Jake's Old City Grill to standard kitchen measures (a shot equals 1.25 ounces) in this lovely purple-blue holiday martini. It's as smooth as Frank Sinatra's voice.
Season's Greetings Cookie Postcards
Create edible masterpieces with decal-like transfers applied on our Season's Greetings Cookie Postcards. Give in waxed envelopes arranged on a seasonal plate.
Wheat Berry Waldorf Salad
Apples, dried cranberries and grapes meet crunchy celery and wheat berries in this colorful salad tossed with apple-cinnamon dressing.
Old-Fashioned Buttermilk-Coconut Pie
This classic pie recipe comes from Miss Aimee B's Tea Room in St. Charles, Missouri.
Seduction Martini
Berry vodka, pomegranate liqueur and cranberry juice bring a blush to this drink from Jake's Old City Grill, Saginaw City, Michigan.
Fireside Beef Stew with Root Vegetables
Cranberry juice makes a surprise appearance in this slow cooker main dish. The juice adds a little sweetness to the winter veggie-packed soup.
Orange-Ginger Cookie Sandwiches
A round cookie cutter with scalloped edges makes a nice shape for these cookies, but bell, tree or star cutters would also be good choices for the holidays.
Stuffed Croissant Breakfast Strata
The combination of croissants, bacon and cheese create an indulgent make-ahead treat for breakfast or brunch. Croissant pieces fit into the baking dish like a puzzle.
Black-Bottom Pecan Pie
This pie is from Miss Aimee B's Tea Room in St. Charles, Missouri.
Black-Bottom Pecan Pie


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Over on We're Only Human, Wray Herbert has another one of his superb posts, this one about the situtational sources of temperature-based metaphors — and the association of cold and lonely. Here's a sample.
* * *
Psychologists are curious about this metaphor, and others. Some believe that metaphors are much more than literary conventions, indeed that they are constellations of ancient and recent experience that we use to help us comprehend the complexity of our emotional lives. According to this view, metaphors are readily available because they are deep-wired into our neurons.
But how did they get there? Two psychologists at the University of Toronto decided to explore this question in the laboratory. Chen-Bo Zhong and Geoffrey Leonardelli wanted to see if our use of metaphor in thinking and judgment might be influenced by our most basic perceptions of the world—the information that enters the brain through the senses. Our ancient ancestors probably linked warmth and togetherness by necessity, as do infants still; bodily warmth often means comfort and survival. Might cold and isolation be similarly linked in the mind?
Here's how the psychologists tested the idea. They divided a group of volunteers in two, and had half of them recall a personal experience in which they had been socially excluded—rejection from a club, for example. This was meant to "prime" their unconscious feelings of isolation and loneliness. The others recalled a happier experience, one in which they had been accepted into a group.
Then they had all the volunteers estimate the temperature in the room, on the pretense that the building's maintenance staff wanted that information. . . . Those who had been primed to feel isolated and rejected gave consistently lower estimates of the temperature, by almost five degrees. In other words, the recalled memories of being ostracized actually made people experience the world as colder.
. . . . In another experiment, instead of relying on volunteers' memories, the researchers actually triggered feelings of exclusion. They had the volunteers play a computer-simulated ball tossing game, but the game was actually rigged. Some of the volunteers tossed the ball around in a normal friendly way, but others were left out, just as an unpopular kid might be left out by other kids at the playground.
Afterwards, all the volunteers rated the desirability of certain drinks and foods: hot coffee, crackers, an ice-cold Coke, an apple, and hot soup. The findings were striking. As reported in the September issue of the journal Psychological Science, the "unpopular" volunteers who had been ostracized on the virtual "playground" were much more likely than the others to want either hot soup or coffee. Their preference for warmth, for "comfort food," presumably resulted from actually feeling the cold in the cold shoulder.
It appears that physical sensations and abstract psychological experience are tightly intertwined, and that intertwining may explain the power and appeal of metaphor. But it may also illuminate the relationship between our very real moods and our perceptions of the world around us. Experiencing cold may actually act as a catalyst in mood disorders, the psychologists suggest, exacerbating feelings of isolation and lonelines.
* * *
To read all of Herbert's superb post, click here. To download a pdf of Zhong and Leonardelli's article, click here.


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In a post on the declining revenues of the record business, progressive blogger Matt Yglesias wrote last week, "It is, of course, possible that at some point the digital music situation will start imperiling the ability of consumers to enjoy music. The purpose of intellectual property law is to prevent that from happening, and if it does come to pass we'll need to think seriously about rejiggering things."
Is that the purpose of copyright law? Sonny Bunch at America's Future Foundation didn't think so, but his debate with Yglesias turned out to be much more than one of the numerous daily spats that make up life in the blogosphere. Instead, it went to very nature of a crucial institution like copyright—and it asks whether that institution exists to help the creators or society at large.
It's worth thinking about the answers.
It's my God-given right... or is it?
When you title a post "Piracy. Is. Stealing." and then devote a mere five paragraphs to the topic, no reader who has fought for even a day on the battlefields of the Copyright Wars is going to expect much... and Bunch's post delivers on those low expectations.
Bunch has little patience for Yglesias's view of copyright and insists instead that "the purpose of intellectual property law is to protect the intellectual property created by artists so they are rewarded for their efforts. The purpose of intellectual property law is to punish people who steal that which isn't theirs."
So—the basic purpose is "protection" in order to "reward" creators. Bunch does hand-wave vaguely in the direction of the Constitution by adding, "Yes, copyright was created in part because there were concerns that authors wouldn't bother creating new work if they were consistently stolen from." But this is immediately undercut with the next sentence, which says, "More importantly, copyright law evolved because we think that artists, writers, musicians, and others have a right to profit from their labors."
Bunch asserts a basic right to profit from creative work; think of this as a "strong property rights" approach to copyright. It sounds good, but the Constitution knows nothing of this theory. Bunch is correct that the secondary purpose of copyright is to reward creators for their work, but only insofar as to encourage the primary purpose of copyright, the continued creation of new work.
In the US Constitution, Congress may use copyright to "promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts." Note that nothing about author's rights appears here; if Congress decided that such promotion could in fact be achieved with a copyright term of a single day, it would be free to do so—and creators could not complain on the grounds that they have a property right in those works. "Progress" is the only criterion allowed.
"Monopoly is an evil"
This wasn't a radical new idea, but one that emerged from English copyright law. The Statute of Anne (1709) was one of the world's first real copyright laws, and it provided protection to authors "for the Encouragement of Learning," not because authors had a full property right in their work.
In 1841, Thomas Macaulay gave one of the world's most famous speeches about copyright, and he explained the principle in more detail. He told his fellow members of the House of Commons, "It is good that authors should be remunerated; and the least exceptionable way of remunerating them is by a monopoly. Yet monopoly is an evil. For the sake of the good we must submit to the evil; but the evil ought not to last a day longer than is necessary for the purpose of securing the good."
But why should authors be paid—was it because they had the inalienable right to control their own work in perpetuity? No. "It is desirable that we should have a supply of good books; we cannot have such a supply unless men of letters are liberally remunerated; and the least objectionable way of remunerating them is by means of copyright."
Again, the goal is society-wide progress, but copyright should not last "a day longer than is necessary" to secure it.
One does not have to like this. As an author, there are many times when I don't like this. That's because, taking this policy to its limit, copyright law only needs to help creators earn a single penny more than the smallest amount of money they need to keep creating. That sounds like a pretty miserable existence, one in which creators might never make much of a living even as they keep a culture vibrant and entertained.
Not that Congress has any intention of doing this, though; in fact, it seems as if legislatures around the world can move copyright in only one direction, toward longer terms—and this despite the tremendous outpouring of worldwide creativity we continue to see. The process is even more bizarre when applied retroactively, since the incentive to create was already enough to produce the works being given additional protection.
Still, this is how US law works (or is supposed to work). Copyright exists for society, and only secondarily for the creator. Complaining about that is one thing; denying that it's the point of the law is another.
Bunch's post inspired the obvious retort from Yglesias: "The point of intellectual property law is to benefit consumers, not producers." And he called in his defense Tim Lee and Julian Sanchez, both frequent contributors to Ars over the last few years.
Pricing songs
One quibble with Yglesias comes in his original post, when he claims that "under conditions of perfect competition, the price of a song ought to be equal to the marginal cost of distributing a new copy of a song. Which is to say that the marginal cost ought to be $0. That's not a question of habit, you can look it up in all the leading textbooks."
This is clearly not true; the price of a good in a perfect world would be some fraction of its upfront cost plus its marginal cost. If I write a novel, and it takes me a year of full-time work, but it can be distributed digitally at a marginal cost of $0, that hardly implies that I should price it at $0. I may price it that way, especially if I make money in other ways—through speaking fees, perhaps, or other paper editions of the book. But a year of my time is a fixed cost that needs to be considered when setting the price.
In any event, what's almost more interesting than the debate itself is what it says about copyright. That is, even once-arcane battles over the meaning of copyright now appear on hugely popular political blogs. People can argue about this stuff with passion and interest, drawing in history, philosophy, law, and economics.
The public fascination with copyright looks like a terrific development, one that forces unrepentant file-sharers to think through the ethical and legal implications of their position but also prevents corporate copyright counsel from simply rewriting the law in a back room with a few Congressmen. One suspects that, if the Mickey Mouse Protection Act were put up in Congress in this climate, it couldn't pass.


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So, I've got to admit, I showed up to Glatt A La Carte (5123 18th Avenue; Brooklyn, NY 11204; Telephone: 718.438.6675) in Boro Park bearing preconceived notions of uber chulent-fresser waiters in bowties serving upscale Jewish chic, featuring ptcha in arbes parsley pesto and liver pâté in matzo taco shells, with huge mains of brisket and mashed potatoes in a pomegranate reduction sauce.
Nothing could be further from the truth! This restaurant was understated chic and welcoming. There were inconspicuous screen separators between some of the tables giving a sense of privacy and intimacy and tall lean white winter branches warmly lit from below against the back wall. The waiters, detail oriented and attentive, gave an exemplary dinner service. Chef Mark Green, a 10 year veteran of Glatt A La Carte, personally brought us the courses that unequivocally proved his superb talents and artistry of taste. It all further demonstrated, the coordinated organic time-lapse frame of a restaurant which, through the patient masterful guidance of owner Binem Naiman and Chef Mark combined, has grown from the ordinary to the extraordinary, incorporating the traditional with the contemporary.
I started the meal with a Butternut Squash Ravioli, the sauce consisted of roasted butternut squash, apple sauce, onions and winter sage. The ravioli were freshly made, the combination of spices gave an out of the ordinary perfect taste, rich in flavor and pleasing to the eyes.
CS had a Spicy Tuna Tartar with a special avocado wrap.
I followed with a Beef Brisket Spring Roll, served with red cabbage confetti slaw (red cabbage, finely sliced orange and yellow pepper and red onion) in a hickory BBQ sauce. It was the best brisket spring roll I ever tasted. I liked the hickory/honey sauce was on the side as it the well seasoned brisket stand alone on flavor. The bright colored confetti slaw was festive and tangy, a perfect partner to the brisket!
CS opted for the Grilled Veal Sweetbreads, served with rustic chimichurri sauce and parsley with home made garlic bread sticks and olive oil. The presentation was enticing, the flavor all conquering.
Next I had a Reserve Steak.
It was a rib eye steak, served with grilled onion and a tarragon béarnaise sauce. It was what every rib eye I ever consumed should have been, exploding with flavor, an exquisitely traditional ta'am.
CS had a Bone-in-Roast Prime Rib with the Columbian Rub (blend of fresh ground coffee and spices), served with Bourbon Aju and topped with crispy seasoned fried onions. It was super tender, juicy and flavorful. The coffee rub, brought out some unusual flavors (my mouth is watering as I write). It cut like butter. I don't think I can rave enough about either of the steaks!
For dessert CS ordered a Plum Carpaccio.
This dessert came topped with mango and raspberry sorbet, it was served with molasses and honey… colorful and delicious!
But… I had the best of all. I ordered the homemade Angel Food Pinwheel, it was topped – in front of us – with a luscious, warm blueberry sauce. The cake came filled with whipped creme, decadently succulent! Perfect ending to a perfect dinner…
During the meal we enjoyed a very nice 2005 Segal's Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon. We accompanied our desserts with a glass each of 2008 Baron Herzog Late Harvest Chenin Blanc. Excellent choices both!


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Tag Archives: Charles RIDOUT
Charles Vie Ridout – the man that nearly wasn't.
Arthur George Ridout (1852-1939) a fellow Ridout researcher, to whose notes I sometimes refer, quite literally 'sentenced' this individual to death at the tender age of ten years: 'Charles Vie bapt 1799 St Michaels Bristol buried Folke 22nd Dec. 1809 … Continue reading
My x3 great uncles: Charles and Samuel Ridout
My x3 great grandfather John Ridout did not grow up alone. The registers of Sherborne Abbey record the following baptisms and burials of his siblings: 19th July 1783 James, child of John & Susanna buried 25th December 1787 Charles, child … Continue reading


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Anyone who's been following this blog over the last couple of years, knows that until three years ago I never tasted fish during the first 6 decades of my life, however, when I finally was trapped into tasting them… I found it a great culinary experience. It showed me what I've been, unnecessarily, depriving myself of!
The following easy to make recipe appeared in a book published in 2004 by the Arie Crown Hebrew Day School in Skokie, IL. From Crowning Elegance, a cookbook that combines superb recipes with an elegant flair:
Flounder with a Crunch
Dairy or Parve — Serves 4
Crushed prestzels are a welcoming change from the basic breadcrumb topping. They add a nice cruch and a salty flvor, balancing the simplistic flavor of flounder.
- 1 pound flounder fillets
- 1 egg beaten
- 3 tablespoons Dijon Mustard
- 1 tablespoon milk or non-dairy creamer
- 1/4 tablespoon black pepper
- 1/4 cup flour
- 1 cup coarsely crushed prestzels
- 2 tablespoons canola oil
- 1 lemon sliced, optional garnish
- In a shallow bowl, using a fork, combine egg, mustard, milk and pepper.
- on a large piece of plastic wrap separately place flour and pretzels .
- Coat fish with flour, dip fish into mustard mixture. Dredge fish in crushed pretzels to coat both sides well.
- In a large skillet, over medium high flame, heat oi. Cook fish in batches for 3 to 4 minuteson each side or until golden brownand fish flakes easily with a fork.
- Serve hot and garnish with lemon slices.
Preparation time: 15 minutes
Cook time: 15 minutes
Enjoy, gentle reader, enjoy!


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Poopa Dweck's magnum opus is far more than just an ethnic cookbook. In its pages, the author lovingly brings us the history, the culture, the flavors and aromas of over 2500 years of Syrian Jewry.
As the author tells us in the Preface, the book…
…features dishes that are both disarmingly familiar, exotic, and, above all, healthful.
My community represents a link to a forgotten past. It is one of the few Jewish communities to live through the rise and fall of Moorish Spain and the Ottoman Empire and survive as a modern people in the West while maintaining its venerable traditions. Our soulful culture, with its fervid, tuneful songs and communal celebratory feasts, is at its most vibrant during the Sabbath, holidays, and life cycle events. One of the most artful representations of Aleppian Jewish culture is our food, whose story I have yearned to tell.
By coincidence (is there really such a thing?!?) I was playing Rabbi Moshe Tessone's CD Odeh La'El!, as I became engrossed in this coffee table sized, art-book quality tome. The writing is informative and fun, the evocative photography (the colors, the settings, the lighting, the angles, bespeak of a certain rusticity and a sedate elegance at the same time) and the recipes truly introduced me to a world which – as an Ashkenazic Jew – I barely knew. Between this beautiful book and the music I felt transported to another time, to an enchanted region, far from the hustle and bustle of New York and – at least for the moment – life seemed beautiful, simple and far more pure…
Looking through the old photographs, looking at the author's family, looking at the recipes pictured, almost made me feel as if I was partaking of a holiday meal at her table.
While loeafing though the book I just had to immediately try a recipe. On page 162 I found one that called for some of my leftover matzah meal and tamarind concentrate, which I'd picked up in the nearby Sephardic neighborhood in Brooklyn.
Tamarind-Stewed Meatballs
Meatball dishes such as keftes are a tradition all over the Middle East. Some regions use turmeric and others use sumac or lemon and mintas flavoring accents for similar meatballs. Aleppian Jews like to use a combination of tomato sauce and tamarind, the proportions of which can vary according to a family's preference.
- 1 pound ground beef
- 3 eggs
- 3 tablespoons matzah meal
- 1 tablespoon Aleppo pepper or 1/2 teaspoon crushed red pepperSauce:
- One 6 ounce can tomato paste, or two 8 ounce cans tomato paste
- 1 tablespoon ou (tamarind concentrate, page 41), homemade or store bought
- Juice of 1 lemon (about 3 tablespoons)
- 1 teaspoon kosher salt
- 1/2 teaspoon sugar (optional)
- 2 tablespoon vegetable oil
- To make the meatballs, combine the the beef, eggs, matzah meal, salt and Aleppo pepper. Mix well by hand. The mixture should be loose and moist so that it can best absorb the sauce and retain a velvety texture. Shape the meat mixture into walnut-size balls.
- To make the sauce, combine the tomato paste, ou, lemon juice, salt, 1 cup of water, and, if desired, sugar, mix well.
- In a large ovenproof saucepan, brown the meatballs, one batch at a time, in the oil over medium-high heat for about 3 minutes per batch.
- Return all the meatballs to the saucepan. Pour the sauce over the meatballs and bring to a boil. Reduce the heat to low and simmer, covered, for 30 minutes to thicken sauce and allow the flavors to integrate thoroughly.
For a tangier sauce, increase the ou by 1 1/2 teaspoons and increase the water by 1/2 cup. Or omit the ou altogether for a lighter, more refreshing sauce, especially if you are serving another dish with ou.
Yield: 8 to 10 servings
Enjoy, gentle reader, enjoy! Sifrah daimeh – "May your table always be plentiful"


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/ Mammut Crag Wire Indicator 10 cm Quickdraw 6-Pack
Mammut Crag Wire Indicator 10 cm Quickdraw 6-Pack
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- Overview Overview The Mammut Crag Wire Indicator 10 cm Quickdraw 6-Pack is the perfect hill-climbing equipment that doesn't wear out even after rugged and extensive use. Designed with indicator technology, this econ...
- Technical Specifications Technical Specifications
The Mammut Crag Wire Indicator 10 cm Quickdraw 6-Pack is the perfect hill-climbing equipment that doesn't wear out even after rugged and extensive use. Designed with indicator technology, this economical quickdraw provides year-round performance.
- Ideal for climbing & mountaineering use
- Wire gates function well in snow & ice, suitable for year-round use
- Robust polyester slings come w/ indicator technology
- Featured w/ a protector that keeps lower carabiner in place at all times
- Protector minimizes wear on the sling
- Warranty period 24 months or in the event of commercial or professional use to 12 months
Technical Specifications
|Breaking Load
|22 kN
|Open Breaking Load
|8 kN
|Vertical Breaking Load
|24 kN
|Horizontal Breaking Load
|9 kN
|Top Carabiner Gate Opening
|30 mm
|Bottom Carabiner Gate Opening
|30 mm
|99.5 mm
|62 mm
|100 g
Mammut Crag Wire Indicator 10 cm Quickdraw 6-Pack User Mannual
- AAnonymousI recommend this productRated 5 stars1 year agogreat product!
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Application for QM2 SSD slots:
- Create a volume on these SSD and use them as extra storage
- Enable Read Cache
- Enable Read/Write Cache
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RAM Module for the TS-x53B
Application for QM2 SSD slots:
Configured system orders start here!
The selected drives are batch controlled and tested using our HDD and SSD servers. Passed drives are then installed in the NAS with Volume and RAID set. Our pre-burn testing prepares the NAS with an initial system and drive testing cycle to ensure that the integrity of the entire system is tested and passed with no issues at all.
Our stress testing (burn-test) cycle commences for a minimum of 24 hours and extends to 48 hours if requested or required. This is undertaken in order to ensure stability when used in a normal environment. These tests can include extremes of workload (constant I/O's), CPU and memory use, thermal load (heat), clock speed, or voltages, bus and connectivity components, with the primary stress testing software aiming to test stability by trying to force a system to fail. Our tests put a greater emphasis on robustness, availability and error handling heavy loads.
Once the tests are complete we QA and pack the system back into it's retail box. Then it's double boxed to protect the unit during shipping. You receive your QNAP NAS Ready To Plug 'N' Store. It doesn't get any easier. Buy your NAS from the QNAP EXPERTS at QNAP DIRECT.


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Yieldnodes Review: Is Yieldnodes Legitimate or a Scam?
You're here because you want to know if Yieldnodes scams or legitimate investment opportunities. We'll be reviewing Yieldnodes to examine its risks and other options. Yieldnodes allows you to invest your profits automatically into the base fund. Its features include auto-compounding and automatic reinvestment. The auto-compounding rate will determine the amount of profit that is reinvested each month. Moreover, you can choose to save the profits as available balance. This will reduce your risk of losing your money and return it to the base fund each month.
What is Yieldnodes?
Yieldnodes allows users to make monthly returns investing in cryptocurrency. It is easy to sign up and requires no prior experience with cryptocurrency. You can deposit money using Visa, Mastercard or bank wire. The platform then converts the funds to cryptocurrency and invests them.
YieldNodes provides excellent customer service. The staff is highly skilled and will promptly respond to any questions or queries. Yieldnodes can be reached via email, telephone, or live chat. You should be aware of phishing websites that pose as Yieldnodes.
Yieldnodes was established in February 2019, and now has 50+ employees. Half-way down the homepage is where you will find their executives. Their contact information is located on the left menu bar at the bottom of this page. You can also see a full audit of Yieldnodes by viewing their public profiles. You don't need to make a deposit to view an audit, which is another great benefit.
Is it Legit?
As the name suggests, Yieldnodes is an online cryptocurrency investment site where you can invest and earn a monthly yield. The site accepts a number of payment methods, including Bitcoin, Visa, MasterCard, and bank wire. The company will convert your funds to cryptocurrency once you have made a deposit. They will then invest them in masternodes. In addition, you can withdraw your monthly ROI by the seventh day of each month.
However, before investing, it is recommended to perform thorough due diligence. While Yieldnodes may seem like a great investment opportunity, you shouldn't invest with an unregulated company – especially one that is located overseas. It is best to only work with reputable brokers.
Yieldnodes, a cryptocurrency exchange. It is currently experimental and unregulated. Yieldnodes has photos of the team on its website. The company also announced that it would be celebrating its third anniversary in October. However, before you invest in this company, it is important to be aware of the potential risks and pitfalls.
Yieldnodes does not support multiple accounts. It also requires a minimum six-month investment term. Users commit to staking their funds in a pool and receive monthly yields in Bitcoin. Afterwards, they can withdraw their funds, or leave them invested to compound. In this way, they can earn more income over time.
The Yieldnodes platform holds masternodes for fourteen different cryptos. The company pools funds and sets up a portfolio with masternodes of each of the 14 cryptocurrencies. Their masternodes are also protected by secret sauce. The Yieldnodes team believes cryptocurrency is a real alternative to fiat currencies.
YieldNodes is an alternative to DeFi platforms for those who are interested in making revenue. The platform is a decentralized network that allows users to take part in governance and provide other exclusive services. They gain reward for their services in the form of fees. Although it is not a mining platform but nodes are vital to the ecosystem. They are also a lucrative way for crypto contributors.
Yieldnodes offers fast and efficient customer service. The support team at Yieldnodes is highly skilled and flexible and ready to help you with any questions. You can reach them by phone, email or live chat.
How do I deposit?
Yieldnodes is an investment service that promises big gains for its users. However, this service is not regulated and is not completely free of risks. As with any investment platform, it is important to weigh the risks and the benefits. Yieldnodes has many positive aspects, including its transparent business model and friendly customer service.
The platform is easy to use, and users can deposit and withdraw funds as needed. Withdrawals, however, are only allowed monthly. The initial deposit is secured for six months. The compounded profit is also locked for that time. You can make an emergency withdrawal, but this will incur a 25% fee.
Sign up on the Yieldnodes site to deposit and complete KYC. You will need to enter your personal information and consent to the speculation agreement. 2FA settings can also be set up. If you are a current Transak user, you can use your existing account to login. Otherwise, you can start the KYC process from scratch.


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Geometry's basic line gets fresh exposure in Milan
MILAN (AP) — The line, long under-rated as one of geometry's most basic form, is getting a lot of exposure on the Milan menswear runway.
Designers are embracing stripes of, well, every stripe, and using them as a metaphor of sorts to clean up the line, that is the silhouettes, of the collections presented during Milan Fashion Week, in its third day on Monday.
So for next summer, men can expect to be wearing stripes, both fine and bold, along with pulsating, radiating and curving lines, as well as simple checks. all creating optical effects that bely the simplicity of some of the looks. Lines are also being worked into the fabric, in chunky textiles that create an architectures of their own.
Giorgio Armani says he has done a whole sale cleanup of looks for his Emporio Armani collection for next spring and summer.
The predominantly black-and-white collection has a strong graphic component, with lines transmitting a sense of energy from the garment, from steady pulses, webs and waves up to full black and white bold stripes. Color makes cameos in contrasting stripes of turquoise and aqua-green.
"After years of doing a little bit of everything, a melange, florals and ethnicity, finally a little cleaning," Armani said.
The silhouette is loose and easy, with pleated trousers or drawstring athletic pants. Silk and cotton shirts loosely cling the frame, and T-shirts, worn under coats, are soft.
The Gucci man for next summer has earned his stripes, along with golden buttons, epaulets, insignias and other trappings of a mariner's life.
The collection, shown against a background of shimmering water, has a decidedly nautical flair, featuring trim and dignified white, navy and red suits with suggestions of officiality in stripes. But these are not mere costumes. The collection projects both luxury and a free-spirit.
The silhouette is disciplined, with the expected blazer, double-breasted jacket and peacoats, but creative director Frida Giannini also includes jackets with Neru collars and blousons with a contrasting buckle waistband that can function as a shirt or jacket. Pants are lean and straight, or baggier and lose.
Frida Giannini gives the look a modern twist with bold navy and white vertically striped pants and jackets, worn together for an eye-popping optical effect but more often mixed and matched with plain colors.
The stripe appears also appears on lapels, scarves tucked inside jackets that substitute for ties, and on the straps of the collection's ample leather duffel and messenger bags.
Here's a new one: faux denim.
The jeans on the Fendi runway were not at all what they appeared. The shirt was printed cotton and the classic jacket was in reality leather with a denim print.
Besides the denim elaboration, the collection by Sylvia Venturi Fendi also featured woven leather pieces and striped knits, as designers continued their study of the line. Again, there were no ties but silken scarves tucked inside a sweater's V or beneath a jacket lapel. The color palate was eclectic, with something for every taste. Shoes were mostly slip on sandals. Bags included a small front-carry pack that stays secure with a triple strap, biker style.
Denim and music have always been a winning combination, as they were on the Fendi runway, where Fendi introduced a new leather-clad colored headphone in collaboration with Beats by Dr. Dre.
The Apulia-based brand Etro is promoting biodiversity in fashion -- using natural fibers in part of the menswear collection for next summer, and promoting a diverse diet.
Menswear designer Kean Etro said they wanted to show how thread could be made out of natural products, not only hemp, which is well-known, but also banana, cereals and milk. Etro said the message behind the collection is "to keep biodiversity running in agriculture."
The collection opened with a series of looks made from natural fibers, maintaining a predominantly white palate before a color burst of egg blue, salmon pink and canary yellow. Instead of the brand's familiar paisley, the prints were photographs of plates of food, from fruit to crustaceans.
Paola Masera contributed to this report.


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text:
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
Letting stops breatheWe talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let's consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.
Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let's say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you'd want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.
ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what 'normal' feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stopAs a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we're going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We'll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They'll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to 'lock in' profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up 'stopping out' at a profit - as per the below example.
The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let's say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn't respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positionsTake profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I'm long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don't.
Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don't override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit ordersThat covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as "bids" (buy orders) or "offers" (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don't need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn't have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let's imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don't have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.
Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let's imagine we're bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven't had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratiosBe extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you'll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you're typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.
A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn't be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don't just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Risk-adjusted returnsNot all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
Sharpe ratioThe Sharpe ratio works like this:
You don't really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VARVAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let's say you're long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.
A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don't give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they're the best tools we have), but they shouldn't put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he's saying is don't misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get "black swans" - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as "tail risk". Don't make the mistake of saying "well, the model said…" - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part IIIAvailable here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn't sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn't either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world's most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as "a hedge fund with a carmaker attached."
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as 'picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller'.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let's start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let's imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there's an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss 'carry' trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders "Non Commercial Traders" in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called "CFTC Commitments of Traders" ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.
Raw format is kinda hard to work with
However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google "CFTC positioning charts".
But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves "Does the market have this trade on?" The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: "There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn't actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?"
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Bet correlationRetail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn't always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.
Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There's a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let's be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don't have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limitsOne common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.
Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let's assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don't resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don't want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you'll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it'll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn't care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk managementThanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
Hey guys, absolute Forex noob here. Started studying Forex 6 months ago and have begun my demo account period of testing my trading strategy. As you can imagine my confidence is not all that great with this vast and intimidating market. I was hoping to get a few opinions on whether this trade was an absolute fluke, or did I legitimately use technical analysis to correctly predict the market. This was my first ever green trade btw, hence why I am skeptical it went the right way!! Bit of context: I placed this trade on Friday and it managed to hit my demo take profit (to the absolute tee). The reason I took the trade was because GBP/JPY was in an uptrend creating higher highs and higher lows. I scaled down into a 15m time frame and used Fib retracement and saw it bounce off the 0.5 retracement level. I took a long position with my target profit at the 0.27 extension which it eventually rose to before retracing back to a key level (137.500). Any comments would be appreciated.submitted by jayrahd04 to Forex [link] [comments]
How to Successfully Profit From Forex Arbitrage Strategies Anticipating future price movements is not the only way people profit trading currency pairs in the forex market. Arbitrage is a low-risk forex trading strategy that traders deploy to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies in the trillion-dollar marketplace. Of course, there are many more take profit strategies. But often, they can be categorised under one of the strategies we discussed today. Let's recap what you can do today to improve your trading: Have the patience to stick to your original trading idea. Define up-front what would have to change in the market in order to invalidate your idea and stick to it. Be consistent in your trading ... The Best Way To Profit From Forex Trend Strategies. May 26, 2020. 574. 0. Facebook. Twitter. Pinterest . WhatsApp. Trade with the trend' is an old trading adage that has proved to be effective in the generation of consistent profits. Trend trading is a popular trading strategy where traders seek to profit from an underlying trend either a downtrend or uptrend. For this reason, technical ... To overcome this issue Take-profit.com tries to average quotes from different brokers and provides "average" results. Nevertheless it's possible that your trade reaches entry/take-profit/stop-loss level when Take-profit.com trade doesn't and vice versa due to quote difference. Take-Profit Forex Signals Review Screenshot Performance Diversification and Risk Limitation Some traders who want to make more profit in the forex market make use of two important strategies: Diversification: Traders who take part in several trades ... Take Profit and Stop Loss Methods Fixed Reward to Risk Exit Targets. With this method, the distance from the trade entry to the stop loss represents 1 unit of risk. Here you set a take profit based upon a multiple of that unit. For example, if you want 2:1, and your stop loss is 100 pips, you set a profit target of 200 pips. Take profit strategies Trading Discussion. I have noticed that many traders use ridged tp and sl levels which I think is a major flaw in there trading system as the market changes periodically and does not react the same as it did when they created the strategy.
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text:
A judge Wednesday set the week of Aug. 18 as the time Nathan Dunlap should die for killing three teenage employees and their 50-year-old manager during the robbery of a Chuck E. Cheese's restaurant in Aurora nearly 20 years ago.
Over the objections of Dunlap's attorneys, Judge William Sylvester announced the date in an Arapahoe County District Court.
One hand cuffed to his waist and the other free to take notes, Dunlap sat before Sylvester. Dunlap wore a blue shirt and tie, glasses with thick black frames and his trademark dreadlocks hanging down his back.
Dunlap smiled when he walked into the courtroom, and he occasionally rocked in his chair. He stood once while officers adjusted his handcuffs. He did not speak during about 90 minutes in court.
Sylvester established the one-week window for the execution but did not set the actual date. That task lies with the director of the Department of Corrections.
Wednesday marked the first time a death date has been set in Colorado since the October 1997 execution of killer Gary Davis.
Families of the victims hugged one another as they left the crowded courtroom Wednesday. Bob and Marj Crowell — parents of Sylvia Crowell, who was 19 when Dunlap shot her to death — said the execution date brings them "one step closer" to justice for their daughter.
Nancy Grant, whose son Ben Grant also died in the restaurant, said there is still a long way to go before her child gets justice.
"It needed to be done, and I hope the governor agrees," she said.
Dunlap's attorneys, meanwhile, are hoping to persuade Gov. John Hickenlooper to do the opposite.
Attorney Philip Cherner said a request to the governor for clemency — and to commute Dunlap's sentence to life without parole — would be his next order of business.
Cherner also said he plans to file motions contending that Colorado's death penalty constitutes cruel and unusual punishment.
"We will not stop trying to save Mr. Dunlap's life," he said.
Sylvester set a June 10 hearing date for those motions.
However, Arapahoe District Attorney George Brauchler said the chances of Dunlap dying in August are "100 percent, unless the governor intervenes."
Jim Peters, former District Attorney in Jefferson County and a member of the team who prosecuted Dunlap, said if anyone deserves the death penalty, it is Dunlap.
Peters emotionally described Dunlap lying in wait until the restaurant, where he once worked, closed — and then he "came out shooting."
Dunlap has never shown remorse, Peters said. "He bragged that it felt better than having sex to kill them."
A number of issues remain to be resolved in the case, including an appeal by Dunlap's attorneys to unseal the secret Department of Corrections document that describes how an execution will be carried out.
A state appeals court has already ruled against Dunlap in that case.
When Hickenlooper ran for governor in 2010, The Denver Post asked him whether the death penalty should be repealed. "No, but it should be restricted," he said.
Late last year, though, Hickenlooper was less decisive.
"I wrestle with this, right now, on a pretty much daily basis because we are in a position where we have a couple of death-row inmates that are going to come up," Hickenlooper told The Associated Press, "and I haven't come to a conclusion."
Earlier in the current legislative session, rumors that Hickenlooper might veto a bill repealing the death penalty derailed the measure.
Asked Wednesday whether the governor has reached a conclusion about his death penalty position, a spokesman said: "He has not."
Another — and potentially critical — issue stands between Dunlap and his last meal.
Like states around the country, Colorado is in a bit of a quandary over how it will obtain the three drugs to be used in an execution.
One of those drugs, sodium thiopental, is no longer manufactured in the United States, and the Italian government has said it will not allow the drug to be exported from a plant there if it is to be used for carrying out executions.
The DOC has sent letters to numerous compounding pharmacies around the state, seeking help getting the drug, spokeswoman Adrienne Jacobson confirmed.
But the department has refused requests, by both The Post and Dunlap's attorneys, to disclose whether any of those pharmacies have agreed to compound the drug for the state.
Dunlap was convicted in 1996 of killing Colleen O'Connor, 17, Sylvia Crowell, 19, Ben Grant, 17, and Margaret Kohlberg, 50, during the Dec. 14, 1993, robbery.
He also shot 20-year-old Bobby Stephens, who survived. Stephens was in court Wednesday.
Dunlap left the Chuck E. Cheese's with more than $1,590 and game tokens.
He is one of three men on death row in Colorado. The other two, Sir Mario Owens and Robert Ray, were convicted in the 2005 murder of Javad Marshall-Fields and his fiancée, Vivian Wolfe.
Karen Augé: 303-954-1733, email@example.com or twitter.com/karenauge
What's next
Clemency appeal: Nathan Dunlap can ask Gov. John Hickenlooper to commute the death sentence.
May 23: Deadline to file promised motions challenging state death penalty statute.
June 10: Hearings on those motions.
Pending: Petition to the Colorado Supreme Court to review a lower-court decision upholding the Department of Corrections procedure for carrying out an execution.
Week of Aug. 18: Scheduled execution. The exact date will be set by the director of the DOC. Dunlap would be transferred to the Colorado State Penitentiary in Cañon City and segregated in a separate holding cell in the execution suite.
This article has been corrected in this online archive. Originally, due to an editor's error, the informational box that accompanied the story incorrectly stated the options available to the governor. A pardon can be granted only after a prison sentence has been served.