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Tigers Ronny Rodriguez by BSG insta: @battingstanceguy twitter: @BattingStanceG
20. June 2019
Tigers Ronny Rodriguez by BSG insta: @battingstanceguy twitter: @BattingStanceG
4. November 2018
Braves Padres Tigers dBacks Angels LF Justin Upton Instagram: @battingstanceguy Twitter: @battingstanceg
8. October 2012
Jim Leyland got pretty emotional discussing Don Kelly's game winning RBI, ALDS Gm2 vs Oakland. www.BattingStanceGuy.com Twitter: @BattingStanceG
8. April 2012
MLB Week in Review : 4/09/12 BSG shares his love for baseball each week of the season highlighting things you may have missed. Why am I speaking in 3rd person? Twitter: @BattingStanceG
12. October 2011
MLB Network sits down with ALCS bound Detroit Tigers to hear what a title would mean to their great city. www.BattingStanceGuy.com Twitter: @BattingStanceG
19. September 2011
Sure, it's college football season. But we don't care about that here at BSG Inc. However, if Kirk Gibson's original team clinches a postseason berth and team he manages is on the cusp of postseason berth….well…then MLB Week in Review must be conducted from a college football game! It's the Week in Review! www.BattingStanceGuy.com Twitter: […]
4. September 2011
Happy Labor Day. We celebrate the final non-NFL weekend with 3 things about MLB you may have missed this week. This may be the only Week in Review of the season from a slip n slide. It's the Week in Review! www.BattingStanceGuy.com Twitter: @BattingStanceG
8. May 2011
Yeah, there were no-hitters. Big deal. It's all about Eric Hosmer this week. Week in Review, Hosmer Nation. www.BattingStanceGuy.com Twitter: @BattingStanceG
8. September 2010
Brennan Boesch raced out to the hottest start in the AL for 2010 rookies. He has since come back to earth but is leading the Tigers in jersey sales and quirky swing follow-thru's. Both important. Rookie Watch salutes BB.
30. April 2010
BSG's worries that Magglio Ordonez stored his mojo in his jheri curl mullet were calmed yesterday as Mags got his 2,000th career hit in a win over the Twins. Those two seemed to have picked back up right where they left off last year in the AL Central, which should mean another fun battle for all of us. BSG likes the Detroit lineup, and, like the rest of the world, thinks the Damon addition will probably help. But he still misses that jheri curl. Enjoy!
30. September 2009
We got a good one going in Detroit folks. Yesterday the Twins and Tigers split the doubleheader to keep the Tigers 2 up. Today they start the 2nd half of their 4-game series at Comerica. The evening win for the Tigers yesterday was thanks in large part to a 2 run scoring double from a guy who's done it before for em. Have a look at the shot Magglio Ordonez hit in the 2006 ALCS to sweep the A's and take the Tigers to their first World Series in over 20 years.
28. September 2009
Tonight the Twins and Tigers kick-off a four game series in Detroit that will most likely decide the AL Central. With neither team in wild card contention, the stakes are high. The good people of motown gotta feel good about this one being a home series. Tomorrow night, they'll feel even better if Justin Verlander has an outing like June 12th, 2007. BSG is here to help your remember it.
10. May 2008
Detroit Tigers- Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen […]


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This is episode #10 of Photographer Stories. This episode I chat to my very good friend Michael James Christian. I have known Mike since about 2009, one of the first things we did together was visit this abandoned carpark, unfortunately at the time I was shooting with a crappy fisheye lens on a crappy digital camera so I apologise for that, there are some cool film shots to make up for it. Mike also enjoys taking photos of bands and we refer to this image quite a bit, mostly because it was right in front of us, was it a prop? maybe. Michael also mentions his collaborative music project called "A Warm Cup of Assholes", check it out, it's funny. As per usual we chat about cameras, photographers, gear and other shot. I left that typo in because of Mike's kiwi excent. I hope you enjoy it! Cheers, MRJ.
Click here to download a MP3 of this episode.
Click here to listen on iTunes.

subset: commoncrawl


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Madrid, Spain, 12 Jan 2018 - Antenna Systems Solutions S.L. (Celestia Technologies Group) a leading supplier of antenna measurement systems to the worldwide satellite, defence, wireless and government markets announced today that its distributor, Yildirim Elektronik will represent ASYSOL at WIN EURASIA 2018. The event is due to take place 15 – 18th March 2018 and will showcase the manufacturing industry.
Visit ASYSOL on the Yildirim Elektronik exhibition stand within the Electrotech Hall 7 at booth number C-190.


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The Ondo State striking workers on Thursday blocked the main gate to the state government house, preventing Governor Olusegun Mimiko from gaining access to his office.
The workers commenced the industrial action last week Wednesday to protest non-payment of their five months salaries.
The governor, who was forced to come down from his vehicle addressed the protesters, pleading with them to suspend the strike, saying there was not enough money in the government's coffers to pay the accumulated salary arrears.
But the governor's plea to convince the workers was not accepted as some of them kept chanting, 'no salary no work'.
Responding to the governor's address, the state chairman of Joint Negotiating Council, Mr. Sunday Adeleye, declared that if the workers had no signal that the state government was ready to pay the salaries owed, the indefinite strike would continue.
Apart from the government house, workers also stormed some major roads in Akure, the state capital to continue the protest.
During the protest that lasted for over four hours, the workers carried placards with different inscriptions such as 'Mimiko pay our salary,' ' we can't feed our families,' ' workers are dying of hunger,' 'ise pupo, iya repete' among others.
The workers who were led by leaders of organised Labour across the state were chanting various anti-government songs during the protest.
It was gathered that the Ondo State Council of Obas led by the Osemawe of Ondo, Oba Victor Kiladejo, was meeting with the leadership of the organised Labour as of the time of filing this report.


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Gluten-Free Lazy Man's Beer Battered Onion Rings
|Prep time
|5 minutes
|Cooking time
|30 minutes
|Total time
|35 minutes
Being gluten-free doesn't mean you have to give up your favorite summertime treats!
Slice the Vidalia onion into rings that are approximately ¼ inch wide, and soak the onions in a mixture of milk and water for about an hour.
Meanwhile, mix all of the batter ingredients together in a large bowl and place it in the refrigerator until it is needed.
When then onions are almost done soaking, start heating your oil. You can test to see if the oil is hot enough by sticking the end of a wooden spoon or skewer into the oil. If the oil starts bubbling around then wood, it is ready.
Drain the onions and then dip one ring into the batter. Once that's done, gently lower the onion ring into the hot oil. Repeat that process until your skillet is full.
The cooking time for the onion rings will depend on the temperature of the oil. Check the underside after 3 to 4 minutes. If it's turned a light golden color, then it's time to flip. If not, let it cook another minute or so. Once you've flipped all of the rings, they will need to cook on that side for approximately the same amount of time, maybe a little less.
Once the rings are done, remove each one from the oil and let as much oil as possible drip back into the skillet. Then place the onion ring on a towel covered plate and sprinkle with a small amount of salt. Repeat from step 5 until all of the onion rings have been cooked.
Creamy Wasabi Dipping Sauce
Combine mayonnaise, sour cream, ketchup, tomato paste, and wasabi paste. Mix thoroughly; add salt, black pepper and cayenne pepper to taste.
Export to:
- Plain Text
- recipeML


text: Now here is a big-budget Western that genuinely feels epic. The latest film from Antoine Fuqua (Training Day, Southpaw), from a screenplay by Nic Pizzolatto (True Detective) and Richard Wenk, is an update of a re-make. John Sturges 1960 film of the same name was an all-star old-west style re-make of Akira Kurosawa's masterpiece, The Seven Samurai (1954). But Fuqua's effort manages to overcomes the obvious risks of being immediately redundant, being lent a surprising level of distinction with enough touches of genre masters Sergio Leone and Sam Peckinpah. Find out after the jump why this entertaining and genuinely thrilling shoot-em-up is worthy of a cinema visit.


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Read and rate Travel Journal Entries for Nam Can, Vietnam
Feb 13, 2009 - A Surprise Visit to the Village of Nong Het, Laos
Sharon Differences between a Laos bus and any other: 1. Their idea of a bathroom break is stopping on the side of the road, walking into the bushes, and peeing. 2. They blast Laotian music on the speakers and if they have one, on the TV. 3. EVERYONE sleeps on the bus. 4. The seats are a free-for-all, even if you have a seat number on your ticket. Whoever gets there first gets the best seats. 5. They honk around every corner "HONK!!!!" We were on this bus because we wanted to meet up with my friend, Maddy. She was going to Vietnam around...Jump to full entry
Trip Journal


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2020 Yoga Services Menu Below
Inspired by Yoga Niyamas Tapas (self-control), Svadyaya (self-study), and Isvarapranidhana (spiritual devotion)
When most people think about yoga, they think about the 'asanas' (the poses). Yoga isn't only about movement and physical health. Yoga is a lifestyle that incorporates overall wellness through many domains of life mentally, physically, and spiritually; by taking what we learn in practice off the mat and into the world.
Other yogic practices include but aren't limited to pranayama (breath work), mudras (hand/pressure points), and mantras (sound). These practices help us to notice subtle changes in our body and mind, and make decisions about how we'd like to live by noticing how we actually live and think. Once we make better decisions, we are on the path to creating a life and world we want to see.
There are many ways to become more open, mindful or aware. Yoga is one way. YB's aim is to spread the yogic lifestyle to anyone open to learning and practicing more.
YB Private Lesson
For students who prefer to practice outside of a studio or group.
75 minutes
$75 per class
$180 for 3 classes
YB Private New Student Lesson
For the beginner student who would like to learn about the basics of yoga practice.
120 Minutes
YB Private Refresher Lesson
Refresher class for students who have been practicing yoga for a while, but would like to learn about how to go deeper into the physical practice.
90 Minutes
YB Specialized Consultation
This service is for the student who would like dedicated consultation on the various offerings of yoga, completely customized to their own life-style, body-type, limitations, goals, and interests.
There is a 90-minute intake session where we meet to discuss your level of experience, your willingness to explore other yogic options (breath work, mudra, mantra, meditation, etc).
Following the intake session, we meet again to discuss a plan that the student can work into their life using yoga and yogic principles to meet their goals. We will then schedule a 3rd session to follow-up on the plan and make any final adjustments that will work for the student long term.
1.5 hour intake session
Two separate 1-hour follow-up sessions
To purchase or schedule a service, please call or email at –


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Saturnz Barz is a song from Gorillaz's fourth album, Humanz. It was released on March 23, 2017. It features Jamaican Dancehall Reggae artist, Popcaan.
A tired Russel goes to the bedroom (where he falls asleep), 2-D goes to the kitchen to find a fridge full of food that opens just as he walks in the room, Murdoc goes to the bathroom (where he takes a bath), and Noodle goes into the basement where she finds a record player and some vinyl records. As they all partake in their activities, Noodle plays one of the records, then the haunting and the song begin.
2-D finds a large cake which he proceeds to eat while a plastic golf figurine comes alive and says, "Press a button to begin" to the viewer. Murdoc sinks underwater in the bathtub, entering a euphoric state of mind as he floats nude in space. Meanwhile, Russel is tormented by a black snake-like creature with a large head, many arms, one eye, and a small arm where its other eye should be. Noodle is constricted by a cycloptic worm-like creature. While this is happening, food begins launching out of the fridge, knocking 2-D back and eventually shoving itself down his throat, with the implication that the food itself is haunted.
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NEW XA8250(II) preamplifier adopt the dual mono structure design, the right & left channel are completely seperate.
- Class A amplify circuit.
- Advanced digital volume control technology.
- [p;lEach channel completely seperate, with excellent channel separation.
- Thick silver aluminium front panle, modelling solemn and elegance.
- 3pcs transformers to seperate supply power(left channel, right channel, control circuit).
- With balanced & unbalanced input and output, select the signal by switching the relay, ensure the best signal path.
- Support the Remote control function.


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Plan It, Do It, Check It Off 4+
I Get It, LLC
- $4.99
Plan It, Do It, Check It Off is a real photo "To Do" app that can be fully customized by the user. Twenty six pages with real picture images are included to illustrate events that can be used for a visual "To Do" list. All the photos pages of different activities can personalized by importing your own photos, changing titles, adding custom text and audio or make your own book from scratch with all your own photos. Great app for individuals that need visual supports.
-Add unlimited users, based on availability on personal device
-Add user's photo
-Add user's first & last name
-Edit/delete users
-"To Do" (26 activites included)
-Sample "Mom's To Do" Sample
-"Step By Step" blank book
-"Step By Step" Sample
-"How Do I..." Tutorial of how to use this app
-Add custom books with blank book template
-Copy book already made as template for the same user or another user from the list of all books within the app
-Hide books to focus on preferred books
-Change order of books in edit section
-Book Exporting Feature
-Hold down book title page and prompt will appear to email a book as a PDF document allowing book to be printed out or
-Hold down book title page and choose to export a the book data via email so that a user with the same app can load your book on their device.
-Edit all pages included in pre-made books with personalized photo, title and subtitle text and recorded audio.
-Add additional custom pages to pre-made books and custom books
-Add custom photos, title, subtitle text and recorded audio to each page
-Hide pages
-Change order of pages
-Drag & Drop book pages while viewing books
-Check mark on page when done by tapping photo OR
-Change option from check mark appearing on photo to play your recorded audio when page photo is tapped on page. Option to change is in settings
-Uncheck button in page edit section to clear all check marks at one time
-When all pages are check marked the book title page is check marked
-Swipe Page button added to turn off swiping feature so that the arrows have to be used to turn the pages.
-Lock with numeric pass code
-Reset pass code in the settings section if you forget it
i Get It! is dedicated to developing educational applications that can be utilized by diverse populations. i Get It! apps are designed for all ages with real photo images for contextual support, personalized text options for visual support and recordable audio capabilities for auditory support. The apps are designed with photo templates, however, the user may easily modify the samples or create their own pages to customize the app to individual learning needs.
i Get It! Apps is devoted to teaching skills one app at a time
What's New
Version 3.8.6
This update corrects an issue with importing books into the app where the app would sometimes not let you select a user to receive the new book.
- Seller
- I Get It, LLC
- Size
- Category
- Education
- Compatibility
Requires iOS 7.1 or later. Compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch.
- Languages
- Age Rating
- 4+
- Copyright
- © i Get It, LLC 2013
- Price
- $4.99
Family Sharing
With Family Sharing set up, up to six family members can use this app.


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Looking to jazz up your home for Hanukkah? Here are a few pieces of Judaica that make me smile. The first candle of Hanukkah is Saturday, December 24th. Pop Art Dreidels I discovered Rabbi Yitzchok Moully's pop art collection at a recent URJ convention. What struck me immediately is the strong use of bold, vibrant colors. Several of the pieces are specifically holiday-themed, including the dreidel art (with a stack of gelt in the lower right-hand corner), hamentashen art (with one bagel half in the lower right-hand corner!), and apple art (with honey in the lower right-hand … [Read more...]
How Do You Celebrate Hanukkah?
Just had a great question - why don't you create a Hanukkah box for parents who go into their children's public school classrooms to explain the holiday. Hmm. I realized that our Hanukkah Helper Box is perfect for that (though, honestly, I hadn't thought of that when we developed the concept). You get a menorah that you can let all the kids handle (it won't break if it's dropped), a whole box of candles so everyone can look at them up close, gelt, dreidels, a brief explanation of the holiday, plus blessings and song sheets. For classes where you can be interactive, the recipe for … [Read more...]
Hanukkah Core Concept – Oil
Congrats to Angela W., winner of night five in our Hanukkah Surprise Pack. One of the surprises in Liora's pack is a 2-sided laminated card with Hanukkah Songs. Reusable year after year to help remind everyone of the key Hanukkah songs to sing after you light the candles. (Available in Hanukkah Helper Box, Hanukkah in a Box, and Hanukkah CD Tutorial.) We mentioned previously the three key Hanukkah concepts that we think are good starting points to discuss with young children: light, miracle, and oil. Here are links to posts about light and miracle. One small jug of oil When you … [Read more...]
Hanukkah Core Concept – LIGHT
Congrats to Jennifer K, winner of the second Hanukkah Surprise Pack! One thing she gets is a laminated card with Hanukkah Blessings and candle-lighting tips. Hold onto this quick-reference card for years. Never have to wonder again which way to load the candles (left to right? right to left?) (Available in Hanukkah Helper Box, Hanukkah in a Box and Hanukkah CD Tutorial.) Still 6 nights to enter – just sign up at www.JewishHolidaysInABox.com. Light - Where to start with young children We recommend three key Hanukkah concepts that are good as starting points with young children: … [Read more...]
Easy Hanukkah Centerpiece
When I saw a reporter query today asking for ideas on how to create easy Thanksgiving and Christmas centerpieces, I thought we should provide some thoughts about how to create easy Hanukkah centerpieces, too. We'll offer some suggestions in our next free e-newsletter, Simply Celebrating! Sign up now to make sure you're on the list! And send your suggestions, too! … [Read more...]


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CES 42 co-main event, Luis Felix vs. Dawond Pickney
CES 42 co-main event, Luis Felix vs. Dawond Pickney
The "Rockstar" Luis Felix returns to the CES MMA cage on March 31 at Twin River Casino in Lincoln, R.I., LIVE on AXS TV Fights, versus Arkansas' Dawond Pickney.
Following a series of injuries, Felix, the pride of Cranston, R.I., couldn't contain his excitement while signing his bout agreement at Arias Lounge in Providence.
"It's been way too long. I just can't wait to be back in there, man," said Felix, who has fought 10 times in the CES MMA cage since making his debut at CES 1. "During my long layoff it made me realize that you can't take your time in this sport for granted, and I'm just excited to make up for lost time."
But Pickney, a Bellator MMA vet with 17 pro fights on his record, plans on stealing Felix's thunder.
"I'm coming to make a statement," said Pickney. "The fans up in New England might not know too much about me right now, but they will once that cage door locks. I'm coming to fight, and I'm coming to win."
Felix is quick to praise Pickney for his experience, toughness and willingness to enter hostile territory. But "Rockstar" predicts his hand will be raised, one way or another, when the dust finally settles at Twin River Casino.
"I'm going to win," Felix said with his trademark smirk. "Whatever it takes, I'm going to win."
"We're excited to have Luis back in the CES MMA cage," added CES MMA Matchmaker Pat Sullivan. "Based on his activity from a series of injuries, this is a non-title fight."
March 31 | Twin River Casino in Lincoln, R.I. | AXS TV
Chris Curtis (champion) vs. Wilfredo Santiago Jr. for the CES MMA World Welterweight Championship
155: Luis Felix vs. Dawond Pickney
125: David Baxter vs. Kody Nordby
145: Kenny Foster vs. Joe Pingitore
215: Dirlei Broenstrup vs. Pat Walsh
135: Kris Moutinho vs. Lloyd Reyes
135: Marquis Brewster vs. Cody Hier
170: Gary Balletto Jr. vs. Chris Torres
135: Chad Kelly vs. Richard Santiago
115: Maria Rivera (1-0) vs. Jessica Sotack (pro debut)


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I am on a never-ending quest for that ever elusive magical make up. I've found a couple of products that come pretty close, these are just some of my current favourites;
Lancome Teinte Miracle Foundation
This is a very new addition to my make up bag. It happened after I put a call out over Twitter for foundation recommendations. The gorgeous Maria from Crashing Red came to my rescue and said that this was the best she had found. After a trial, I decided that she was absolutely right! It provides a beautiful medium coverage and has a lovely silky finish.
Yves Saint Laurent Touche Eclat
I started using this years ago to help cover my dark circles. I use it very sparingly now, usually when I've had a few sleepless nights and really need a bit of extra help, or if I have a special occasion.
Shu Uemura Eyelash Curlers
These eyelash curlers are a favourite among many make up artists, so I've been using them for the past few years. My eyelashes need lots of help, and these curlers seem to do the trick pretty well. (Although I could always use more help in this department!).
Lancome Hynose Mascara
As I just mentioned, I need lots of help in the eyelash area, and this mascara works quite well. With other brands, I seem to have a problem with the mascara transferring onto the top of my eyelids (is it just me that this happens to?) but this one behaves itself and stays put. I am always looking for an amazing new mascara if anyone can recommend one.
Loreal Colour Riche Lipstick in Freshly Candy
Australian beauty queen Zoe Foster recommended this lipstick in her book Amazing Face, and so of course I went searching for it. It is a lovely fresh shade of pink and is perfect for during the day, or at night with a slick of gloss.
MAC Eyeshadow in Phloof
Another make up staple that I've been using for years, this is a great base colour and a touch of this on the 'v' on the inner corner of your eyes really opens them up and makes them pop! (I read this somewhere in a magazine, so it must be true, right?).
What are your all time favourite make up staples?
Have you discovered any amazing products recently?
Please share your tips, tricks and favourite products!0


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ACTIVATE – the building alarm system or notify the fire department by calling 911. Or, have someone else do this for you.
ASSIST – any persons in immediate danger, or those incapable on their own, to exit the building, without risk to yourself.
Only after these two are completed, should you –
ATTEMPT – to extinguish the fire.


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Green Day are set to play a one off show at London's Brixton Academy on August 21st.
Green Day are superstars. The band's days of selling cassettes from the back of a rundown tour van are long gone, with sweaty basements venues being swapped for stadiums.
Set to headline this summer's instalment of Reading and Leeds, Green Day will play a one off London show a few days before the festival opens. Taking place on August 21st, the group will storm the Brixton Academy.
Tickets will no doubt in high demand, with Green Day's previous British show occupying the rather more vast climes of the Emirates Stadium.
Tickets are priced at £39.50 and go on sale at 9am this Wednesday (August 14th).
Meanwhile, Green Day's upcoming documentary '¡Cuatro!' will be released on August 24th. Directed by Tim Wheeler and produced by Tim Lynch for Farm League, the film traces the studio process behind the band's recent album trilogy.
Check out a trailer below.
Green Day are set to play the following show:
21 London Brixton Academy
Click here to buy tickets for Green Day!
Get the best of Clash on your iPhone - download the app here


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Chinese New Year Reunion Dinner Promotion at Shangri-La's
Gong Xi Fa Cai, it time again to plan for reunion dinner. If you are busy and don't have time to prepare for steamboat then below is best for your selection. Don't miss the wonderful time to have a reunion dinner with family member. More Chinese New Year promotion will be post here soon. Stay Tune!


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Ovulation Calendar – Fertility Calculator
Use our calculator to pinpoint your ovulation and determine your fertile days, the sweet spot in your menstrual cycle during which your chances of conceiving are the highest.
Ovulation and Fertile Days Calculator
The ovulation and fertile days calculator helps you get an approximate estimate of the fertile days during which conception is possible. Exactly how reliable the calculation of fertile days will be depends on the accuracy of the data you enter, as well as the regularity of your menstrual cycles.
Ovulation Calculator
What Is Ovulation?
Ovulation is a part of a normal menstrual cycle, the precise term denoting the release of a mature egg from the ovary and down the fallopian tube, where fertilization by sperm may occur. The menstrual cycle is calculated from the first day of one menstruation to the first day of the next one. Although the menstrual cycle differs from person to person, for most women it lasts between 28 and 32 days. Every menstrual cycle lasting between 24-35 days is considered normal.
Ovulation corresponds to a time period of 12 to 24 hours when the egg cell is ready for fertilization. During this period, sexual desire increases as the testosterone levels rise by 30%.
There is a widespread misconception that a woman can only get pregnant if she has intercourse sometime during the 24 hours of ovulation. Although this is a period of optimal conditions for fertilization, it is very much possible for pregnancy to occur even when you are intimate outside of that frame because sperm can survive in a woman's body for up to 5 days. Therefore, if you are trying to conceive it is important to have sexual intercourse before and during ovulation.
When Does Ovulation Occur?
Ovulation depends on the length of your cycle. For example, during the average cycle (28 days), ovulation occurs somewhere between 13-15 days (counting from the first day of the cycle) before the first day of the following menstruation. The period may vary between 10-16 days.
Fertile Days
The method of determining fertile days is very simple. To use this method, you need to know the length of your cycle (28 days on average). During the cycle there are two phases.
- The first phase (which varies in duration for women with irregular cycles) lasts from the beginning of menstrual bleeding to ovulation.
- The second phase, encompassing a period from ovulation to menstruation, is invariable and lasts for 14 days (13-16 days).
By subtracting 14 from the length of the average cycle (28 days), we determine the day when ovulation occurs (egg release). In order to get a period of fertile days, we subtract 14 from the length of the menstrual cycle and reduce the number by another 3 days (since sperm can survive for up to 78 hours following intercourse).
Example: A woman with an average menstrual cycle of 28 days has fertile days between days 11 and 17 of the menstrual cycle.
It is important to emphasize that this method is unreliable for women whose length of the menstrual cycle varies. Still, the fertile days method can serve as a good auxiliary method for timing sexual intercourse if you are trying to conceive or if you want to protect yourself from unwanted pregnancy.
Ovulation Symptoms
Vaginal Discharge (Cervical Mucus)
By observing changes in vaginal discharge, we can roughly determine the day of ovulation. There are significant changes in the amount, color and stretchiness of the cervical fluid.
- During the first phase, immediately after menstruation (days 5-9), the vagina and the vulva are dry.
- In the second phase (days 9-10), the vagina begins to moisten, and the mucus is yellowish, sticky and inelastic.
- In the third phase, during ovulation, the mucus becomes abundant, translucent and very stretchy.
After ovulation, the mucus becomes sticky once more.
Abdominal Pain
1/5 women can feel the changes occurring in ovaries during ovulation. The sensations vary from a slight twinge or a slight burning sensation in the ovaries to severe pain in the abdomen, not unlike menstrual pain. Usually the pain is localized only on one side of the abdomen, and can be accompanied by back pain and sensitivity in some other parts of the body.
Cramping may also occur as a result of the egg making its way through the fallopian tube down to the uterus.
Ovulation can cause slight bloating, very similar to the one experienced during menstruation. Hormonal changes are the most common cause of this bloating.
Women rarely notice light red spots during mid-ovulation and even if they do, they take it for residual menstrual blood. However, these stains occur when the egg bursts out of the ovarian follicle during ovulation, thus indicating fertility.
Measuring Body Temperature
During ovulation, body temperature increases by 0.3-1 ° C. Measuring body temperature throughout the menstrual cycle helps in predicting ovulation. Body temperature should be taken every morning after getting out of bed. During ovulation, the temperature rises drastically, by up to half a degree.
Ovulation and Pregnancy
Ovulation and conception are closely related. A woman's fertile period is limited to ovulation day, a couple of days preceding (since residual sperm can fertilize the egg) and three days following ovulation. Sperm cells can survive 3-5 days after ejaculation, and the egg cell only 24 hours after ovulation. In a normally fertile couple, the chances of conception during ovulation in each cycle equal 25%, which points to the fact that 75-85% of women get pregnant in the first year of trying.


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Guide to Scenario Analysis in International Futures (IFs)
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Demographic Module
- 3 Health Module
- 3.1 Variables of Interest
- 3.2 Parameters to Affect Overall Health and Burden of Disease
- 3.3 Parameters that Affect Communicable Diseases
- 3.4 Parameters that Affect Non-Communicable Disease
- 3.5 Parameters that Affect Injuries and Accidents
- 3.6 Parameters to Affect Technology
- 3.7 Prepackaged Scenarios
- 4 HIV/AIDS Submodule
- 5 Education Module
- 5.1 Variables of Interest
- 5.2 Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Annual Growth
- 5.3 Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Target Year for Universal Education
- 5.4 Parameters to Affect Intake Rates and Survival Rates: Multiplier
- 5.5 Parameters to Affect Education Spending
- 5.6 Parameters to Affect Gender Parity
- 5.7 Prepackaged Scenarios
- 6 Economic Module
- 7 Infrastructure Module
- 8 Agriculture Module
- 9 Energy Module
- 10 Environment Module
- 11 Governance Module
- 12 International Politics Module
- 13 Parameter Dictionary
The purpose of this document is to facilitate the development of scenarios with the International Futures (IFs) system. This document supplements the IFs Training Manual. That manual provides a general introduction to IFs and assistance with the use of the interface (e.g., how do I create a graphic?). In turn, the broader Help system of IFs supplements this manual. It provides detailed information on the structure of IFs, including the underlying equations in the model (e.g., what does the economic production function look like?). This document should help users understand the leverage points that are available to change parameters (and in a few cases even equations) and create alternative scenarios relative to the Base Case scenario of IFs (e.g., how do I decrease fertility rates or increase agricultural production?). It proceeds across the modules of IFs, such as demographic, economic, energy, health, and infrastructure, to (1) identify some of the key variables that you might want to influence to build scenarios and (2) the parameters that you will want to manipulate to affect your variables of interest. The Training Manual will help you actually make the parameter changes in the computer program and the Help system will facilitate your understanding of the structures, equations and algorithms that constitute the model. We begin by introducing the types of parameters within IFs and then proceed to a discussion of variables and parameters within each of the IFs modules.
A Note on Parameter Names
In this manual we will provide the internal computer program names of variables and parameters, as well as their descriptions. Those names are especially important for use of the Self-Managed Display form, which provides model users with complete access to all variables and parameters in the system. Most model use, however, employs the Scenario Tree form to build scenarios and the Flexible Display form to show scenario-specific forecasts, and both of those forms rely primarily on natural language descriptions of variables and parameters. To match the names provided here with the options in those forms, you can use the Search feature from the menu. The Training Manual describes how to use features such as the Flexible Display form to see computed forecast variables in natural language. And it also describes how to use the Scenario Tree form to access parameters in something close to natural language. Nonetheless, it helps very much in the use of those features and the model generally to know the actual variable and parameter names.
Types of Parameters in IFs
Equations in IFs have the general form of a dependent or computed variable, as a function of one or more driving or independent variables. Variables, like population and GDP, are the dynamic elements of forecasts in which you are ultimately interested. For instance, total fertility rate or TFR (the number of children a woman has in her lifetime) is a function of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (GDPPCP), education of adults 15 or more years of age (EDYRSAG15), the use of contraception within a country (CONTRUSE), and the level of infant mortality (INFMORT). In the most general terms the equation is
Parameters of several kinds can alter the details of such a relationship. That is, parameters are numbers (also represented by names in IFs), that help specify the exact relationship between independent and dependent variables in equations or other formulations (including logical procedures called algorithms). For instance, the model may contains different parameters that tell us how much TFR rises or falls per unit change in GDP per 6 capita, education levels, contraception use, and infant mortality1 and it contains still others to set bounds on the lower and/or upper values of TFR over the long run (obviously TFR should never go negative and probably we will not even want it to go, at least for a long time, to a very low level such as an average of 0.5 children per woman). Some of these parameters are more technical than others in the sense that they may significantly affect the overall stability of the model if users are not very careful with the magnitude or direction of the changes they make; we will focus heavily in this manual on parameters that are easiest to interpret and modify.
In many cases, we are more interested in using a parameter to make a direct change to a variable, rather than indirectly affecting a variable like TFR through one of its drivers. We often refer to this as the "brute force" method of changing a variable, and this can be done by multiplying the entire result of a basic equation like that above by a number, adding something to that result, or simply over-riding the result with an exogenously (externally) specified series of values. In the case of TFR we use the multiplier approach, which is described below. The strengths of this approach should be obvious: it preserves model stability, and makes the model more accessible for users. However, the weakness is that in many instances it is more realistic to affect one of the drivers of TFR rather than TFR directly.
Beyond multipliers, there are many other types of parameters that IFs uses, although we are forced to abandon TFR to provide examples. For instance, a switch parameter may turn on or off a particular formulation in preference to another. A target may specify a value towards which we want a variable to move gradually (we would need to specify both the target level and the years of convergence to it).
Overall, key parameter types are:
1. Equation Result Parameters. Most users will use these parameter types far more often than any other. The three types are:
- a. Multipliers. This most common of all parameter types in scenario analysis comes into play after an equation has been calculated. They multiply the result by the value of the parameter. The default value, i.e. the value for which the parameter has no effect and to which multipliers almost invariably are set in the Base Case, is 1.0. These parameters are usually denoted with the suffix -m at the end of the parameter name.
- b. Additive factors. Like multipliers, these change the results after an equation computation, but add to the result rather than multiplying. The default value is normally 0.0. These are usually denoted with the suffix -add at the end of the parameter name.
- c. Exogenous Specification. Sometimes these parameters override the computation of an equation. In other cases, they are actually substitutes for having an equation; that is, they are actually equivalent to specifying the values of a variable over time for which the model has no equation. This typically means establishing a new exogenous series. They typically will have the name of the variable that they over-ride within their own name.
2. Targets. Especially for the purposes of policy analysis, we often want to force the result of an equation toward a particular value over time (e.g. to achieve the elimination of indoor use of solid fuels). Target parameters are generally paired, one for the target level and one for the number of years to reach the target (from the initial year of the model forecast, 2010). Targets have different types:
- a. Absolute targets. In this case the target value and year define the absolute value the variable should move toward and the number of years after the first model year over which the goal should be achieved. Together they determine a path in which the value for the variable moves quite directly2 from the value in first year to the target value in the target year. Trgtval and trgtyr are the parameter suffixes used for this parameter type. The first of these changes the target itself, and the second alters the number of years to the target. The default value of *trgtyr parameters should normally be 10 years, but in some cases it is 0, meaning that users must set the number of years to target as well as the target value in order to use these parameters.
- b. Relative (standard error) targets. In this case, the target value and year define a relative value towards which the variable should move and the number of years that will pass before the target is reached. The relative value is defined as the number of standard errors above or below the "predicted" value of the variable of interest (a prediction usually based on the country's GDP per capita). Target values less than 0 set the target below the typical or predicted (as indicated by cross-sectional estimations) value of the variable. Target values above 0 set the target above the predicted value. As with the absolute targets, the value calculated using relative targeting is compared to the default value estimated in the model. The computed value then gradually moves from the normal or default-equation based value to the target value. If, however, the computed value already is at or beyond the target (that could be above or below depending on whether the target is above or below the default or predicted value), the model will not move it toward the target. Two different parameter suffixes direct relative targeting: setar and seyrtar. The first of these changes the target itself and the second alters the number of years to the target. The default value of the *seyrtar parameters varies based on the module and even variable. Governance parameters are set to a default of 10 years from the year of model initialization, while infrastructure parameters are set to a default of 20 years. These defaults mean that users do not have to change *seyrtar as well as *setar in order to build standard error target scenarios. Changing *setar should be enough.
3. Rates of change. Some parameters specify an annual percentage rate of change. Unfortunately, IFs does not consistently use percentage rates (5 percent per year) versus proportional rates (0.05 increase rate per year, which is equivalent to 5 percent), so the user should be attentive to definitions. There are multiple suffixes that may apply to these, including -r (changes in the rate) and -gr (changes the rate of change, growth or decline).
4. Limits. As indicated for the TFR example, long-term national rates are unlikely to fall and stay below a minimum value. Limits can be minimum or maximum values. These are typically denoted by the suffixes - min, -max, or -lim.
5. Switches. These turn off and on elements in the model. These most often affect linkages between modules, but can also change relationships within modules. They are typically denoted by the suffix -sw.
6. Other parameters in equations and algorithms. Equations within IFs can become quite complicated. The parameter types discussed to this point provide the easiest control over them for most model users. Relatively few users will proceed further with parameters, and to do so will typically require attention to the specific nature of the equation (e.g. whether independent variables are related to dependent ones via linear, logarithmic, exponential or other relationship forms). That is, one would normally need to understand the model via the Help system or other project documentation in order to use them meaningfully and without causing substantial risk of bad model behavior. The sections of this manual will provide very little information about these technical parameters.
- a. Elasticities: These are relatively common within IFs and specify the percentage change in the dependent variable associate with a percentage change in the independent variable. They are typically prefixed el- or elas-.
- b. Equilibration control parameters. IFs balances supply and demand for goods and services via prices, savings and investment with interest rates, and so on. These processes typically use an algorithmic controller system that responds to both the magnitude of imbalance or disequilibrium and the direction and extent of its change over time (see the Help system descriptions of the model). Although they are not typical elasticities, the two parameters that control each such process usually have the prefix el- and the suffixes -1 or -2. Parameters ending with 1 relate to disequilibrium magnitude; and parameters end with 2 relate to the direction of change.
- c. Other coefficients in equations. Beyond elasticities, many other forms of parameter can manipulate an equation. When analysts in many fields think of parameters, this is what they mean. In IFs, most users will use them quite rarely because, in the absence of knowledge concerning equation forms and reasonable ranges, the parameters often have little transparent meaning—experts in a field may use them more often. Many analysts think of such parameters as having a constant value over time, and some are unchangeable over time in IFs. IFs allows almost all, however, to be entered as time series and vary with great flexibility across time. Some can be changed for each country and/or sub-dimensions of the associated variable, such as energy types, but others can only be changed globally.
- d. Equation forms. Although most users will change parameters using the Scenario Tree (see again the Training Manual), the IFs model has made it possible over time to change an increasing number of functions directly (both bivariate and multivariate ones). The advantage this confers is the ability to alter the nature of the formulation (e.g. going from linear to logarithmic) and even, to a very limited degree, the independent or driver variables in the equation. Although some module discussions will occasionally suggest this option, most users will not avail themselves of it. Users who wish to make such changes can do so via the Change Selected Functions options, which can be accessed from the Scenario Analysis Menu on the main page.
7. Initial conditions for endogenous variables and convergence of initial discrepancies
- a. Initial conditions are not, strictly speaking, true parameters, but should reflect data. Yet some users will believe that they have data superior to that in IFs, and the system allows the user to change most initial conditions. After the first year, the model will compute subsequent values internally (endogenously). Initial conditions don't have a suffix; their names are, in fact, those of the variable itself (e.g., POP for population).
- b. Convergence speed of initial-condition based discrepancies to forecasting functions. Because initial conditions taken from empirical data often vary from the values that are computed in the estimated equation used for forecasting, the model protects the empirically-based initial condition by computing shift factors that represent that initial discrepancy (they can be additive or multiplicative). For many variables, values rooted in initial conditions in the first model year should converge to the value of the estimated equation over time; convergence parameters control the speed of such convergence. Most model users will never change the convergence speed. These are denoted by the suffixes -cf or -conv.
In the use of all parameters, especially those other than equation result parameters, users will often be uncertain how much it is reasonable to move them—as are often even the model developers. The Scenario Tree form provides some support for judgments on this by indicating high and low alternatives to that of that Base Case. This manual will sometimes provide some additional information.
1Because the nature of the equation or formulation will vary (sometimes a driving variable is linearly linked to the dependent variable, sometimes the equation uses a logarithmic, exponential, or other formulation), the coefficients in the equation cannot invariably or even regularly be interpreted as units of change linked to units of change. You may need to explore the Help system and specific equations to fully understand the relationship. This is one of the key reasons we very often turn to the multipliers and additive factors explained in the next paragraph.
2The movement normally will be linear, except that it is possible to set moving targets that create non-linear progression patterns. In some cases, the model explicitly uses non-linear convergence; e.g. to accelerate movement in early years and then to slow it as the target is approached.
Manipulating Parameters in IFs
You will typically manipulate parameters to create scenarios or internally coherent stories about the future. You may create scenarios because you wish to represent and explore the possible impact of policy interventions. Or your stories may represent views of the dynamics of global systems alternative to that in the IFs Base Case scenario. Most of the time, you will be interested in tracking the possible futures of selected variables having particular interest to you. The following sections, each covering a module of the IFs system, begin by identifying some of the variables of potentially greatest interest to you. They then provide suggestions on which parameters are likely to be of most useful in building alternative scenarios for those variables. Each section includes tables listing the most effective parameters with which to target certain outcomes. While these suggestions are intended to help you start to think about which parameters you might use to build your scenarios, it is essential that you consider seriously what the policy-based, empirical-knowledge-rooted, or theoretically informed foundations are for your changes.
Keys to Successfully Modifying Parameters in IFs
- Test all parameter changes individually before building combinations, in order to be able to identify which parameters are having specific impacts
- After changing a parameter value and running a scenario, check the impact on the most proximate or closely related variables (identified in the tables of each module section), before checking the secondary impacts of your selected parameter on more distally related variables
- Tie parameter changes to policy options, empirical knowledge, or theoretical insight identified in literature
- Bear in mind the relevant geographical level at which a parameter operates; some parameters function directly at a global level (e.g., global migration rates), while others will be most relevant at the regional, or national level
- Some parameters are only effective when used in combination with one another (such as target values and years to reach a target)
- Some parameters cancel one another out; for example, trgtval and setar parameters cannot be used together except under very limited circumstances that we attempt to note in the subsequent text
- In many cases, variables affected by certain parameters have natural maximums (e.g. 100 percent) or minimums (e.g. fertility rate), so that changes to the parameters affecting them, where countries may already be approaching such a limit, will not have a significant impact
- The IFs systems contains many equilibrating processes, such as those around prices; interventions meant to affect one side of such an equilibration (such as efforts to reduce energy demand) may have offsetting effects (such as lower prices for energy and resultant demand increase) that make it harder than you expect to push the system in the desired direction; real-world policy makers often face such difficulties and may need to push harder than anticipated
Prepackaged Scenarios
A number of alternative scenarios come prepackaged with the model. To access them, select Scenario Analysis from the main menu, and then the option labeled Quick Scenario Analysis with Tree. Once in the scenario display, select Add Scenario Component to view all of the .sce (scenario) files that are stored on your computer normally at the path C:/Users/Public/IFs/Scenario. Exploring several simple interventions contained in the folder structure should give users an overview of some of the leverage points in that they may wish to use in each module
Demographic Module
Variables of Interest
|Total population
| Population, age 15 or less
| Population, age 15 to 65
| Population, greater than 65
| Population, pre-working years
| Population, working years
| Population, retired
| % of the population between 15 and 29
| Population, median age
| Labor force size
| Births
| Deaths
| Net migration (inward)
| Crude birth rate
| Crude death rate
| Total fertility rate
| Contraceptive usage
| Life expectancy
| Net migration rate (inward)
The IFs demographic module breaks country populations down into 21 fiveyear age groups, each one subdivided by gender. This allows the model to create an age-sex cohort structure that responds to changes in the three fundamental drivers of population: fertility, mortality, and migration. Births are calculated as a function of each country's fertility distribution and age distribution. As children are born, they enter the lowest band of the agesex structure, the layer representing people aged 0 through 5. Each country's population growth is reduced by deaths at each age level; like births, deaths are calculated as a function of the mortality distribution and the age distribution. Finally, migration patterns either add to, or subtract from, each country's population, depending on the balance of immigration and emigration3 . Each of the three proximate drivers of population is influenced by deeper social processes: births are a product of fertility patterns; deaths are linked to life expectancy; and net migrants are determined by an overall global migration rate.
Total population is represented in millions of people via POP, but users may also choose to explore the age structure within society. Three variables break population down into broad age groups: POPLE15, people age 15 or younger, POP15TO65, people age 15 to age 65, and POPGT65, people older than age 65. Three additional variables provide a similar disaggregation of population: POPPREWORK, POPWORKING, POPRETIRED—as the names suggest, they measure the number of people who have yet to enter their working years, the number of people currently in their working years, and the number of people who have completed their working years. The years comprising an adult's working life may vary from country to country, depending on education systems and retirement ages. Users can explore additional population characteristics via the variables YTHBULGE, the percent of all adults (15 and older) between the ages 15 and 29; POPMEDAGE, the median age of a country's population; and LAB, the size of the labor force, recorded in millions of people. For any country, the complete age and sex breakdown is available under the Specialized Displays for Issues option under the Display sub-menu. From the Specialized Displays menu, select Population by Age and Sex, and click the button labeled Show Numbers. This will bring up detailed population figures for any of the countries in the IFs system. To view a population pyramid display, toggle the Distribution Type setting on the menu bar.
The three immediate drivers of population change—births, deaths and migration—are captured in the model as flows. Every year babies are born (BIRTHS), people die (DEATHS) and people leave countries to live elsewhere (MIGRANTS). These processes alter the stock of population in countries, regions and the world as a whole. The speed at which a population will grow or decline, and the attendant shift in a population's age structure, depend on crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR)—the number of births and deaths per 1,000 people.
Each of the immediate drivers is linked to deeper determinants of population. For instance, fertility rates are responsive to income, education and infant mortality rates, offering points of access elsewhere in the model. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a variable that is essential to our understanding of populations' reproductive behavior. TFR is, essentially, the number of children the average woman in a country can expect to have over the course of her lifetime. In order for the overall population size to remain roughly stable, TFR must meet the replacement rate for that country. For developed countries this is approximately 2.1 children per woman, but the figure may be higher in countries with high mortality rates, and is lower in many. While TFR largely determines future population growth, it is not the only behavioral variable of note: CONTRUSE captures the percent of fertile women who routinely use some method of contraception.
For a complete discussion of mortality see the Health module, where deaths are computed. They are responsive to deep or distal factors such as income, education and technological advance, as well as to more proximate ones such as levels of undernutrition and smoking. A key indicator for the population model, linked to deaths, is LIFEXP, or life expectancy, which provides a measure of the median life expectancy of a newborn in a particular year given the current mortality distribution. Although life expectancy can be calculated for any age, IFs focuses on life expectancy at birth. This variable is key to the functioning of the IFs system because many of the parameters that affect mortality do so by changing life expectancy.
The final proximate driver of population growth is migration. MIGRANTS measures net migrants in raw figures, reported in millions of people; but this variable is determined by MIGRATE, the net migration rate, reported as percent of the total population. The basic forecasts of migration in IFs are one of the very few variables that are exogenous. Nonetheless, there is parametric control of it.
The demographic module features an array of parameters that allow users to create alternative demographic scenarios by exploring uncertainty surrounding: fertility, mortality and migration, as well as the years making up people's working lives.
3In IFs, the age distribution of migrants is controlled by an internal vector across age categories, not available for manipulation through the model's front-end.
Parameters to Affect Fertility
|Variable of Interest
| Total fertility multiplier
| Multiplier
| Contraceptive use multiplier
| Multiplier
| Elasticity of total fertility rate to contraception use
| Long term TFR convergence value
The single most powerful way for users to modify fertility rates is to manipulate tfrm, a parameter that directly alters the total fertility rate within a country or region. This parameter serves as a multiplier on the fertility rate calculated by the model—a 20% increase or decrease in the value of the parameter will result in a similar magnitude of change in the value of the associated variable, TFR. Because it is a brute force multiplier, users should justify their modifications to the parameter. When used thoughtfully, tfrm can be a powerful tool for scenario analysis. It can be used to model the impact of fertility control initiatives that extend beyond simple contraceptive use. An example would be the implementation of a program to offer public seminars on the benefits of having fewer children, which could lower the fertility rate even when overall contraceptive usage rates are low. Health care programs for women are a major contributor to fertility decline.
Users can also directly change the percentage of the population that uses contraceptives via contrusm, a parameter that indirectly affects the total fertility rate via CONTRUSE. As this is a multiplier, it works the same way as tfrm. It can be used to model the impact of an increase in the availability of family planning education, a campaign to promote the use of condoms, or any other intervention that would likely increase (or decrease) the percentage of a population using contraceptives. Additionally, the parameter eltfrcon allows users to control the elasticity of total fertility to contraceptive use. For example, a weaker relationship between the two variables might be justified if the contraceptive methods in use in a country or region are widely known to have high failure rates.
When creating alternative scenarios that span long time horizons, users may wish to modify fertility assumptions built into the demographic module. As countries grow richer and reach higher levels of educational attainment, total fertility rates tend to decrease. However, in forecast years, a minimum value prevents countries from dipping too far below replacement rate. As a default setting, the minimum parameter, tfrmin, is set to 1.9. Thus, in the Base Case, TFR in highly developed countries will converge to just below 2 children per woman. By increasing or decreasing the parameter, users can experiment with different long-term fertility patterns.
Parameters to Affect Mortality
|Variable of Interest
| Mortality multiplier (not cause specific)
| Multiplier
| Mortality multiplier by cause
| Multiplier
The health module write-up includes a full description of the drivers of mortality in the IFs system, and explains how to manipulate each one. However, one parameter affecting mortality, mortm, is worth discussing separately. 14 This parameter functions similarly to the hlmortm parameter available in the health module, but does not disaggregate by cause of death. Similar to tfrm, mortm can be used to model the impact of events that have broad impacts across the population, such as the end of an armed conflict or the implications of a plague. Usually however, if a user is building a scenario analyzing health trends, using the hlmortm multiplier will be more useful because it disaggregates mortality on the basis of cause. Because morbidity rates in IFs are linked normally to mortality rates, these parameters will affect them also.
Parameters to Affect Migration
|Variable of Interest
| World migration rate multiplier
| Net migration rate (inward)
|Rate of change
Users interested in modifying migration patterns should bear in mind that migrant flows are subject to an accounting system that keeps the global number of net migrants equal to zero. In other words, a person leaving one country will be accounted for when they enter another country. Changing the world migration rate, wmigrm, is the easiest way to affect migration patterns in IFs. Altering this parameter will allow users to increase the overall rate at which migration occurs at a global level, enabling users to simulate large scale increases (or decreases) in migration generated by, say, reductions in visa fees, or the opening of borders as is the case in the EU's Schengen area. The parameter migrater, on the other hand, allows users to affect the rate of migration into individual countries or regions (values can range from positive, indicating net inward migration, to negative, indicating net outward migration).
Parameters to Affect Working Age
|Variable of Interest
| Working age determinant
| Exogenous specification
| Retirement age determinant
| Exogenous specification
In addition to manipulating the rate at which populations grow, users can experiment with the effects of changing a country's working age, something that will be fiscally important in many countries as populations age. The variables POPPREWORK, POPWORKING and POPRETIRE map the typical age structure of a country or region's work force. Two parameters, workingageentry and workingageretire, control the age at which a person is considered eligible for work and the age at which a person is eligible for retirement. Changes in the workforce's age configuration link forward to economic production via the size of the labor force (LAB). Raising or lowering the retirement age will additionally affect government finances via the size of population of retirement age and the level of pension support provided to households (GOVHHPENT).
Prepackaged Scenarios
An installation of IFs includes high and low population-framing scenarios. Originally created for the poverty volume of the Pardee Center's Potential Patterns of Human Progress (PPHP) series, the two files are located in the Framing Scenarios folder under Population. Both scenarios feature the direct total fertility rate multiplier. Tfrm in the high fertility scenario is set to 1.5 globally. In the low fertility scenario, tfrm is set to .6 in non-OECD nations, and the limit parameter tfrmin is set to 1.6 globally. Although the two scenarios only feature a few interventions, the effects of such a large change in human reproductive behavior would have significant forward linkages throughout each of the model's systems.
Four of the prepackaged scenarios located in the folder Interventions and Agent Behavior contain additional examples of the demographic module's parameters: Non OECD Contraception Use Slowed, Non OECD Contraception Use Accelerated, World Migration High, and World Migration Low. The pair of scenarios focusing on contraceptive usage rates both utilize contrusm. In the accelerated scenario, the multiplier takes the value 1.2 in non-OECD nations; and the value 0.8 in the slowed scenario for all non-OECD nations. The two alternate migration scenarios similarly feature interventions on a single parameter: the global migration multiplier wmigrm. In the high scenario the parameter takes on a value of 2, doubling global migration flows; and in the low scenarios flows are halved, with wmigrm declining to a value of 0.5.
Health Module
Variables of Interest
|Variable Name
| Life Expectancy
| Crude Death Rate
| Deaths by Mortality Type
| Years of Life Lost
| Years of Working Life Lost
| Years Lived with Disability
| Disability Adjusted Life Years Lost
| Infant mortality rate
| Percentage of population stunted
| Percentage of children malnourished
| Percentage of population malnourished
| Body Mass Index
| Percentage of population obese
| Percentage of population that smokes
The primary variables of interest in the IFs health module are those that pertain to mortality and morbidity due to a variety of causes. LIFEXP and CDR, discussed in the population module, provide basic measures of population health. DEATHCAT provides a measure of the number of deaths (in thousands) due to different categories of mortality. IFs can display health variables in the following categories of disease: Other Communicable Disease, Malignant Neoplasm, Cardiovascular, Digestive, Respiratory, Other NonCommunicable Diseases, Unintentional Injuries, Intentional Injuries, Diabetes, AIDs, Diarrhea, Malaria, Respiratory Infections, and Mental Health. Using the Flexible Display form, it is also possible to see many of these variables in the rolled-up categories of Communicable Disease, Non-Communicable Disease, and Injuries or Accidents. Because different health conditions affect age cohorts differentially, the above measure is insufficient in understanding the full impact of ill health. For this reason, it is also possible to break down the actual number of deaths accruing to each cohort, sex, and cause via the Specialized Display menu under the health heading. For example, both the Mortality by Age, Sex, and Cause and the J-Curve displays provide useful information about the health status of a country.
Three other measures help to enrich the picture: HLYLL, HLYLD and HLDALY. Like DEATHCAT, these aggregate (across age-cohort) measures are available by cause and country. HLYLL is a measure of the number of life years lost due to premature death. It differs from the DEATHCAT variable because it represents the burden of premature mortality In terms of life years lost, which allows us to account for the fact that some diseases, like HIV/AIDS, primarily affect younger people, while others, like cardiovascular disease, are primarily fatal in older adults. Although the total number of deaths may be the same between two countries for each cause, there may be significant differences between two countries' health profiles in terms of YLLs.
HLYLD is another measure that represents the burden of ill health in terms of life years of impact. It indicates the burden of years lived with disability or disease. In calculating YLD, IFs uses the disability weights that WHO created to rank the relative severity of different conditions and their impact on productivity.
Finally, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) are a measure of morbidity (disability or infirmity due to ill health). HLDALY sums YLLs and YLDs to create a measure of the number of years of life lost to both premature mortality and morbidity due to ill health. Like the other measures discussed above, DALYs can be broken down by different disease categories within IFs. The DALY is probably the most expansive measure of ill-health within a population because it includes mortality burden by age of death and the lost quality of life for those who did not die from health events, but who are disabled by them in some way.
Other measures provide indicators of health in regard to certain specific risk factors for disease or among certain segments of the population. Infant mortality, INFMOR, can be used to assess the burden of ill health among children under one year of age. HLSTUNT, displays the percentage of the population who are stunted (have low height for age),while MALNCHP and MALNPOPP, provide information on the percentage of the child and adult population who are malnourished respectively. The variables INFMOR, HLSTUNT and MALNCHP are especially useful for assessing the burden of ill health due to communicable diseases and other conditions that primarily affect children. By contrast, the variables HLBMI, HLOBESITY, and HLSMOKING provide risk factor information on diseases that affect primarily adults. HLBMI represents the body mass index in a country while HLOBESITY and HLSMOKING provide information on the percentage of the population that is obese or smokes.
Other variables that will be useful to users interested in specific conditions or subpopulations include indicators on stunting and BMI, as well as smoking and obesity. Variables for HIV/AIDS are also available and discussed separately below in the subsection on the HIV/AIDS sub-module.
Parameters to Affect Overall Health and Burden of Disease
|Variable of Interest
| Multiplier on Mortality (by cause)
| Multiplier
| Multiplier on morbidity
| Multiplier
| Switches DEATHCAT from absolute numbers to deaths/1000
The above parameters provide simple ways to directly affect the burden of disease within a country. The most important parameter for modifying mortality rates is hlmortm, a parameter that allows users to increase or decrease the prevalence of deaths in any particular category of illness. IFs modifies mortality in the following categories: Other Communicable Disease, Malignant Neoplasm, Cardiovascular, Digestive, Respiratory, Other NonCommunicable Diseases, Unintentional Injuries, Intentional Injuries, diabetes, AIDs, Diarrhea, Malaria, Respiratory Infections, and Mental Health. Altering the mortality burden will affect the variables DEATHCAT, HLYLL, and HLDALYs. The parameter will indirectly affect morbidity because of its direct link to mortality. In the case of Mental Health Diseases, the parameter will not have much impact on DEATHCAT, but may have a significant impact on the number of DALY's experienced by a population. Because hlmortm is a multiplier, increasing its value from 1 to 1.2 represents a 20% increase in the burden of mortality from a particular cause. A similar parameter, hlmorbm, allows users to affect morbidity directly through a brute force multiplicative parameter. This allows users to affect the years lost to disability in a working life and by extension multifactor productivity due to human capital (MFPHC). The hlstddthsw allows users to switch between displaying DEATHCAT in absolute numbers to deaths per thousand people.
Parameters that Affect Communicable Diseases
|Variable of Interest
| Percentage of population with access to safe water
| Multiplier
| Percentage of population with access to improved sanitation
| Multiplier
| Prevalence of child malnutrition
| Multiplier
| Yield multiplier on agriculture
| Multiplier
| Rate of HIV infection
| Multiplier
Above are a number of the parameters that users may wish to use to manipulate communicable diseases (which predominantly affect children). Ylm is a multiplicative parameter in the agriculture module that can be used to change the yield of agricultural lands within a country, affecting the number of calories available for consumption, and thereby altering the rates of malnutrition and obesity. Watsafem and sanitationm, in the infrastructure module, influence the percentage of the population that has access to safe water and sanitation respectively, thus decreasing childhood exposure to diarrheal disease, malnutrition and premature death. Other parameters to control safe water and sanitation access are discussed in the infrastructure section of the model. Finally, although HIV is more thoroughly discussed in the HIV/AIDs submodule, one brute force parameter is worth noting here. Hivm allows users to directly affect the rate of infection with the HIV virus.


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Because gray can be sedate, a room primarily colored in this soothing hue can lack interest. But not to worry – all it takes is a few bold touches to liven up your gray bedroom. Look at how well it's done in the bedroom shown here – the gold chair adds a bit of spice, but it's the black-and-white printed ottoman and the geometric print wallpaper that really bring this bedroom to life. Takeaway: when decorating primarily in gray (or any other neutral), add a few punches of color or pattern to keep the look lively.
01 of 08
Contemporary Country
Although gray is a soothing, neutral tone, it has a contemporary vibe, making it the perfect color to bring a traditional style – like country – into the present day. This modern take on country hits all the high notes: four-poster bed, paneled walls, distressed wood and simple lines. But there's nothing old-fashioned or even rustic about this country bedroom – using geometric prints instead of the expected florals and working plenty of gray into the mix gives country style fresh, sophisticated appeal without losing the welcoming easiness that makes country a classic. Takeaway: you can update just about any decorating style with judicious use of gray.Continue to 2 of 8 below.
02 of 08
Warm Gray
Worried that too much gray will make your bedroom look cold or cave-like? When you use a warmed, brownish-gray as in the bedroom here, you can set those fears aside. The putty-colored walls are quite contemporary, but not a bit harsh or cold. Mix in the grayish-brown floral curtains, the burnt orange area rug and the wonderful round mirrors hung over the headboard and you get a traditional bedroom with plenty of personality and charm. Takeaway: although too much pure gray can look chilly, by choosing warm, brownish-gray tones you can keep the look comfortable.Continue to 3 of 8 below.
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Accent Wall
If painting all four bedroom walls with strong color is too much for your tastes, but you still want to add a touch of drama, turn the wall at the head of your bed into an accent wall. A deep gray like the one shown here is a great choice. The gray bed skirt and patterned throw pillows add a bit of quiet elegance, while the small shelf with silver letters welcoming guests into the space adds a bit of whimsy. Takeaway: Dark gray is the perfect color for an accent wall – it's bold enough to make a statement, but subdued enough to keep the bedroom tranquil.Continue to 4 of 8 below.
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Gray Has Fun
This isn't a bedroom for the shy or timid, despite the simple palette of gray, white and yellow. The striped walls and ceiling are somewhat reminiscent of a circus tent, making this a great look for a children's room. But don't discount the power of stripes in the master bedroom as well – just keep them on either the walls or the ceiling, not both. The strong geometric pattern on the comforter helps balance the bedroom, and because the colors perfectly match the stripes, the overall effect is pleasing, not chaotic. Takeaway: just because gray is a sedate color doesn't mean it can't have fun.Continue to 5 of 8 below.
05 of 08
Gray in a Child's Bedroom
Although gray isn't usually the first color that comes to mind when decorating for a child, the bedroom shown here demonstrates how well it can work. What a great space that either a boy or girl would love. The deep gray accent wall sets off the touches of bright color perfectly. The gray stripes in the area rug, gray throw blanket, and gray toss pillow tie the room together beautifully while still letting the cheerful color shine. Takeaway: As long as you add in plenty of bright accents, gray works very well in a child's bedroom.Continue to 6 of 8 below.
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Modern Gray Bedroom
This gray, black and cream bedroom has plenty of modern appeal – it's almost futuristic. But because texture is used to perfection throughout the space, the look is cozy, not overly cool. Notice the thick sweater-knit blankets, the leather-wrapped bed, the area rug layered over carpet and the touches of shine on the throw pillows and small accent tables. Takeaway: when using a lot of gray in the bedroom, add plenty of warm texture to prevent a chilly feel.Continue to 7 of 8 below.
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Gray Gets Sophisticated
Wow. Here's a bedroom that takes sophistication to new heights. The charcoal walls and curtains have a gothic appeal, but the unusual ceiling fixture, the clear Lucite nightstands, the sweater-knit throw blanket and the traditional bedside lamps keep the look from becoming morbid. The bed is a beautiful study in gray, from the wrap-around upholstered headboard to the all-gray bedding. The black-and-white throw pillows add just enough contrast to balance the style. Takeaway: When working with a very dark palette, add in a few unexpected light touches to prevent style overload.Continue to 8 of 8 below.
08 of 08
Add Bright Color
Are you sold on the idea of gray for your bedroom, but worried it might be a bit dull? Or maybe you have the opposite conundrum – you love bright color, but don't want your bedroom to be too stimulating. Both problems have the same solution -- decorate your room in gray, white and your favorite bright color. In this bedroom, it's orange that adds the zest, but any bright would work equally well. Notice how little it takes to liven up a space – touches of color on the valences, the artwork, the throw blanket and the toss pillows are just enough to cheer up the entire bedroom without taking over. Takeaway: Liven up your gray bedroom with a few accents of your favorite bright color.


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Blog Archives
Yesterday something went on with the computer. First it wouldn't connect to the internet, preferring to remain in a state of permanently 'acquiring network address.' Today, I noticed it had also changed the time by an hour. The two things probably aren't connected, but who knows. I did all the usual stuff to fix it: turned off the router, checked the wireless connection settings, blah blah blah. Then this evening I had a fiddle. I got into the C:\WINDOWS dialog box and I started typing stuff in. I had noticed that the wireless connection had somehow dropped its IP address down the back of the sofa. I tried a few other things – releasing and renewing the ipconfig (whatever that is) and eventually, after I had apparently unsuccessfully twiddled everything whilst trying to set up a new wireless connection – the old one found where it lived in the world wide web, and all was well again.
I like fixing things. I think it's in the genes.
That reminds me, the central heating timing box was rewired with myself as chief electrician this winter – needs must after a busted valve on the system. Best get it replaced this summer – all two days of it…
Here's one of the days of summer I made earlier.


text: Why is Your Furnace Tripping Your Circuit Breaker? Posted January 19, 2018 Having an appliance tripping your circuit breaker is never a good thing, but having your furnace cause difficulties throughout the coldest South Beloit and Belvidere days is pretty high on Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc.'s list of "Bad Things." If your furnace is tripping your circuit breaker, there is a chance you need a furnace repair. Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc. can help you find out what the exact problem is, but here are a few reasons we usually see: overworked furnaces, short circuits and wiring problems. No matter what is taking place with your furnace, if your circuit breaker is tripping, you need to call in a qualified technician. Overworked Furnaces Furnaces become overworked for a number of reasons, but they're typically preventable. Dirty air filters and blocked or closed vents are often the culprit—and those problems can be easily identified and resolved during a preventive maintenance visit. If that's not the cause of your furnace trouble, Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc. can help you out by doing a furnace repair. Short Circuits If you have a short circuit in your furnace, it will trip the breaker promptly when you turn it on. If you think you have a short circuit in your furnace, call Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc. right away for a furnace repair. Short circuits can be very dangerous, initiating fires or other serious damages. Wiring Problems Faulty installation or loose connections can cause your furnace to short circuit and trip your circuit breaker. No matter how they got that way, loose wires can trigger your furnace to overheat and trip your circuit. Your Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc. professional can find and tighten any loose connections and keep your furnace operating safely. If you noticed that the circuit breaker is tripping, give Fleming Heating & Air Conditioning Inc. a call at 877-389-2465 immediately. It's important to keep your South Beloit and Belvidere home and family safe and warm. Back To Blog


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On the trail of Doyle Simpson in Louisiana
How a key player in the Curtis Flowers case came to need a gun.
The police would later describe it as a tree, but it was really more of a swamp vine. Doyle Simpson was handcuffed to it, his feet sinking into the marshy sludge. Untold Louisiana swamp creatures — alligators, snakes, snapping turtles — lurked in the tangled thicket behind him.
Doyle had two holes in his back, near his shoulder blade, where the freckled man had shot him. The bullets had traveled upward through his body. One was lodged in the base of his skull, and the other had ripped through his throat, narrowly missing his carotid artery, and exited through the front of his neck. He couldn't scream, he couldn't even talk. Out there, no one would have heard him anyway.
It was December 15, 1986. A couple hours earlier, 29-year-old Doyle had pulled up in front of his cousin Clyde's house, a tan rambler in Kenner, Louisiana, a town on the outskirts of New Orleans. It was a Monday morning, around 11:15. Clyde's wife, Elaine, had also just arrived. She parked in the carport alongside her little home on the crowded street.
As Elaine prepared to walk in her side door, she heard two gunshots. She looked left and saw a man darting across her lawn, as if he'd just bolted out the front of her house, a blue steel gun in his hand.
Elaine saw the man run toward Doyle's yellow Ford Pinto, point the gun at Doyle and yell, "Drive!" Doyle's car sped off.
Then Elaine entered her house and found Clyde lying in a pool of blood on the kitchen floor. She ran back to her car and drove to a nearby donut shop to use a payphone to call police.
At 11:38, Kenner Police Detective Steve Caraway arrived at the scene. The door to the Simpson's house looked like it had been kicked in. Clyde's neck had been slashed, he'd been shot three times in the head and once in his stomach. Clyde Simpson was dead. Meanwhile, Doyle was trapped in a car with the murderer.
The man directed Doyle to steer his Pinto away from New Orleans and its suburbs. They crossed the Mississippi River and drove more than 25 miles, through the sugarcane fields and into the swampland of St. John the Baptist Parish. They turned onto a gravel service road. As they neared the edge of the swamp, Doyle's little car got stuck in the mud. They walked the rest of the way to the tree-like vine.
The freckled man stole Doyle's wallet, shot him twice and took off on foot. Doyle was alone, stuck to the tree and bleeding to death. It's not hard to imagine his despair: Doyle slumped over, his weight bearing down on the frail branch, his eyes scanning the tangled brush beneath him for something, anything, that might set him free.
The road from Winona
The story of how Doyle ended up in that swamp in 1986 would take on new significance in the years after the Tardy Furniture murders, in 1996. One of the most pervasive rumors in Winona is that a Louisiana hit man was the killer.
There's no real evidence to support this theory. In fact, there is really only one thing giving it life — Doyle Simpson's past. He is one of the few people in Winona to have lived in the New Orleans area, and he certainly seems to be the only one who was kidnapped and shot there.
Doyle had been an early suspect in the Tardy investigation, and was already a focus of our reporting. He'd owned the gun that investigators say was used in the Tardy Furniture murders and had worked at the store.
Few people who knew Doyle would say much about him, and those who did mentioned his outward appearance: his raspy voice and the ear-to-ear scar across his neck. It prompted us to investigate if he had a connection to organized crime in Louisiana and if he or someone he knew there might have been a hitman. Could Doyle's possible connections to organized crime have been related to the Tardy murders? We decided to check it out.
Doyle had migrated to New Orleans in the late 1970s around the same time as several other young people from Winona. Most of them were related. There was Doyle's cousin, Clyde Simpson, and Clyde's wife, Elaine. There were also Doyle's half-brother, Robert Campbell, and Robert's brother. To them, New Orleans promised opportunity.
"When I left Winona I was working two jobs," said Robert Campbell, who added that he was earning $1.65 an hour and need to pay off a 1977 Oldsmobile Cutlass. "So you start thinking ... they got jobs down there paying more money," he said.
The group settled in the outskirts of the city. Clyde and Elaine Simpson lived in their little house. The guys — five or six of them, including Doyle and Campbell — squeezed into an apartment nearby.
Campbell described Clyde Simpson as his best friend. They graduated from high school together in Winona, and in New Orleans, they got jobs at a washing machine factory. At some point, according to Campbell, Clyde was let go and went into business for himself painting houses and doing minor construction work. He brought on Doyle to help.
It seems likely that Clyde Simpson was also selling drugs. Campbell remembers seeing a room in Clyde's home that was stacked floor-to-ceiling with marijuana. Detective Caraway recalls that "somebody indicated that there may have been a large amount of drugs there, but nothing was ever found." It's unclear whether Doyle was involved in this other side of Clyde's business.
"I don't know the connection with Doyle," Caraway said. "But obviously there was some sort of drug nexus there that brought them all together."
Newspaper stories in the days after the murder reveal that the detectives investigating Clyde's death weren't sure if Doyle was a victim or a getaway driver who'd been double crossed.
Finding the freckled man
Stuck in that swamp, badly wounded and handcuffed to the tree, Doyle needed a way to cut himself loose. He spotted a broken bottle, just a run-of-the-mill bit of swamp detritus, and decided it was going to save his life. He reached down and grabbed a piece of glass. He pressed the jagged edge against the vine, and started sawing back and forth. Eventually, it gave way.
He was free, but in grave condition and stuck in the middle of nowhere. Doyle mustered the strength to stagger 191 feet out to the nearest road. He was spotted by a passing truck driver who called 9-1-1.
Before the paramedics rushed Doyle to the hospital, sheriff's deputies questioned him briefly. Detective Vernon Bailey asked Doyle if he knew the man who'd done this to him. Doyle couldn't speak, but he scribbled a short note. It said something bad might've happened to his cousin in Kenner. Bailey called the Kenner Police Department and talked with Steve Caraway.
Detective Caraway drove out to Detective Bailey's parish that afternoon. There, they interviewed a witness, Martin Sylvain, who had called in a tip to police. Sylvain said he'd been getting gas at a remote Texaco station, a mile or two from where Doyle had been found. Sylvain had been approached at the pump by a man asking for a ride to Kenner. Sylvain refused, even after the man offered him $20. Something about the man seemed off. As Sylvain pulled out of the gas station, he watched the man walk over to a pay phone and start to make a call. It was between 12:30 and 1 p.m.
Sylvain described the man he'd seen to the detectives and the details he gave were distinct. According to court records, "Mr. Sylvain stated that the black male was light complected and had pimples or freckles on his face."
Detective Caraway called South Central Bell Telephone and asked the company to pull the call log for the pay phone at the Texaco Station around the time Sylvain saw the freckled man.
Two days later, Detective Caraway visited Doyle at the hospital to see if he could describe the man who'd shot him. He'd had invasive neck surgery and couldn't speak much, but he could sort of whisper and mime. Caraway remembers Doyle's response clearly. He tapped his fingers all over his cheeks. "He kept referring to what we thought was just a lot of freckles on his face," Caraway said.
According to court records, the phone company called Caraway back on Christmas Eve. There had been a call made from the pay phone at the Texaco Station at 12:54 p.m. on December 15, to the house of a man named Horace Toppins. On December 29, Caraway knocked on the door at that address.
"When the person answered the door it was just really eerie," Caraway said. "It was a very light-complected black male with ... it wasn't freckles, but it was hundreds of little small tiny moles all over his face."
The man was Horace Toppins.
Toppins denied making the call from the pay phone, but the detective thought he looked nervous. He asked Toppins to come down to the station the next day. Toppins was a no-show.
On December 31, Martin Sylvain picked Toppins out of a photo lineup. The next day, Caraway and another detective drove the four hours up to Winona where Doyle was convalescing. There, Doyle also picked Toppins out of a lineup.
Late that night, back in New Orleans, Caraway executed a search warrant for Toppins' home and two cars. He found two R.P. Luger 9 mm rounds, which matched the type of shell casings found at Clyde Simpson's house. He also found a prepaid legal services card with Clyde Simpson's name and social security number on it, according to court records. Police arrested Toppins.
Toppins was indicted separately for the murder of Clyde and the attempted murder of Doyle. In both cases, Toppins entered an Alford guilty plea, which means he didn't admit to either crime but acknowledged that the state's evidence was enough to convict him. He was sentenced to 30 years at Angola prison. Toppins was released in 2003 on "good-time parole," having served less than 17 years.
Living in fear
By most accounts, Doyle spent the rest of his life — he died in 2012 — afraid that the man who kidnapped him would come back to finish him off.
In the 1990s, someone in Winona mentioned to Doyle that there was a new guy in town. He became convinced it was the murderer and that he needed protection.
"'The way they describe him, bro, that's him,'" Robert Campbell remembers Doyle saying. "He got the gun because he heard the guy was there."
Doyle also told people that the man who had tried to kill him was tied to organized crime. "He said he had to be a hitman," Campbell said. Back in New Orleans, Clyde had once told Campbell something similar, saying, "Man, they done put a hit out on me." Campbell remembers telling Clyde to get lost for a while, to go back up to Winona, but he didn't listen.
Doyle's fear doesn't necessarily mean he was involved in criminal activity. Surviving trauma could leave someone scared for many reasons. The detectives who investigated the 1986 incident — Steve Caraway and Vernon Bailey — don't remember thinking that Doyle was complicit in the murder of Clyde. The fact that he was idling in his car outside Clyde's house just seemed to them like bad luck. They said Doyle acted like a victim and cooperated with the investigation.
We spoke briefly to Clyde's widow, Elaine, but she said she couldn't remember much about Doyle and didn't want to talk about her late husband.
There was one last person who we thought might have some answers about whether Doyle had connections to organized crime and why a hit man would have wanted him dead — the man who was charged with trying to kill him, Horace Toppins.
As luck would have it, we found Toppins in New Orleans just a few days after his release from another stint in prison, this time for allegedly passing counterfeit money at a Dillard's in Baton Rouge.
We met at his daughter's office. He was dapper and jolly, wearing a pinstripe suit and smiling broadly. Toppins has recently been suing the state of Louisiana over what he says is the illogic of the attempted murder statute. And that's what he wanted to talk about.
"Murder has intent. When you put the attempt statute with it, you have an attempt to have an intent," Toppins explained. "Intent is a state of mind. You cannot attempt to have a state of mind. You have that mindset or you don't."
Toppins didn't want to address the way that the attempted murder statute was used against him. He wouldn't discuss Doyle or Clyde Simpson and has never admitted guilt in the 1986 crimes.
"I'm not going to speak about that," Toppins said. "I cannot change what happened. I have no animosity, no bitterness, or resentment. There are some things I do regret. However, I'm not going to linger on those."
Some details of Doyle Simpson's past, it seems, will remain a mystery.


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Charles "Cootie" Williams joined Duke Ellington in 1929 after working
briefly with Chick Webb and Fletcher Henderson. Williams replaced the
well known, uniquely stylized Bubber Miley, who specialized in a
growling, plunger style. Ellington made great use of Williams in such
features as "Concerto for Cootie," "Tutti for Cootie," and the full
length versions of "Take the 'A' Train."
Williams proved an expert at the muted, growling style also. His solos have great force and authority. Unlike Miley, Williams also played effectively on an open trumpet. Like so many of Ellington's side men, he played long, logical improvised lines.
Cootie Williams was a man of great intensity and inner turmoil. He left Ellington in frustration in 1940. He played briefly with Benny Goodman, led his own band for a while and then a small group. In 1962 he rejoined Ellington and stayed with him until Ellington's death.


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The CIC has brought both Bar Council and Bar Association under RTI. The Bar Council being the statutory body constituted under Advocates Act 1961, to protect ethical standards of Advocates and admonish the members for misconduct are not exempt under RTI Act, ruled the Central Information Commission.
Similarly, though Bar Associations are different from Bar Councils, they are also constituted under a law made by Parliament, i.e., the Advocates Act, 1961. They too have a duty to inform the people about their activities.
The appellant wanted information regarding the number of complaints against the advocates, how many cases were disposed of, number of advocates who had violated the provisions of Advocates Act, number and percentage of complaints disposed of within a year of the lodging of the complaint, etc. practising/registered with the Bar Associations and how many disciplinary cases against the advocates were sent to the Bar Council by the respective Bar Associations located. The appellant complained that he was not provided with the required information and his first appeals were also not heard by the FAA.
Download decision from the link given below


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Current Concepts of Motion: Correction for MRI
Current Concepts of Motion: Correction for MRI
A FRIAS Junior Researcher Conference
Date: 16. - 18. December 2013
Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a technique used to produce high-quality images of internal tissues in the body and is ideal for assessing the structure and function of the human brain in vivo. However, MRI is very slow and subject motion is a major source of artifacts that can greatly reduce image quality. Recent developments in motion correction have demonstrated that the technique has the potential to aid in solving a significant and relevant problem in MRI. Although numerous challenges remain, the advantages of motion correction suggest that the benefits justify the effort required to develop solutions and that motion correction may become an essential tool for the next-generation of MRI. In this workshop, different motion correction approaches are introduced and recent implementations are reviewed including a discussion and summary of specific advantages and disadvantages. The objective is to bring specialists from different disciplines together to facilitate the translation of these new developments from bench to bedside.
Registration is open
Deadline for registration: October 31, 2013.
The participation is limited!
Online Registration (CLOSED!)
Local Scientific Coordination
Michael Herbst
Medizin Physik, Radiologie
Univesitätsklinik Freiburg, Breisacher Straße 60a, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Dr. Maxim Zaitsev
Medizin Physik, Radiologie
Univesitätsklinik Freiburg, Breisacher Straße 60a, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
e-mail: email@example.com
Information & Contact:
For more information please contact Simone Erdenberger (Conference Secretary)