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On 7PHP.com today another community interview has been posted - this time it's with Michael Wallner, a full-time PHP core developer working at SmugMug.
Today I bring you an interview with someone (named Michael Wallner, @_m6w6) who has been hired to work full-time on PHP. Yes you heard it right: this guy is paid to work on The Core of PHP. As you know PHP is open-source, so why would a company hire someone to work full-time on such a free technology? (I let you get the answers from Mike himself). Besides since he is highly involved with PHP and it's core, it's a good opportunity to learn from his experience and know-how, so let's hear from him!
He answers questions about his past, how he started with PHP and what he thinks of the language now versus when he started out with it. He gives some advice to budding PHP developers and some of the libraries/projects he suggests. They then talk some about his work at SmugMug and how much time he'll be spending dedicated to working on the PHP core. There's also a bit answering the "why" question of why SmugMug would hire him to work on the core...but you'll have to read the interview to find out that answer.


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By Robert Windrem
NBC News Investigative Producer for Special Projects
As U.S.-Pakistani relations spiral downward, the specter of a showdown between the increasingly antagonistic allies is garnering more attention, including the worst-case scenario of the U.S. attempting to "snatch" Pakistan's 100-plus nuclear weapons if it feared they were about to fall into the wrong hands.
That would be a disastrous miscalculation, former Pakistani President and army chief Pervez Musharraf told NBC News, saying that such an incursion would lead to "total confrontation" between the United States and Pakistan.
Ispr / EPA
A Medium Range Ballistic Missile Hatf V (Ghauri) missile takes off during a test fire from an undisclosed location in Pakistan on Dec. 21 in this photo distributed by the Pakistani military. The liquid-fuel missile can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and has a range of more than 800 miles.
Privately, current and former U.S. officials say that ensuring the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons has long been a high national security priority, even before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and that plans have been drawn up for dealing with worst-case scenarios in Pakistan.
The greatest success of the U.S. war on terrorism – the military operation that killed Osama bin Laden in his safehouse in Pakistan in May – has fueled the concerns about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, increasing suspicions among U.S. officials that he had support within the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence service, and emboldening those in Washington who believe an orchestrated campaign of lightning raids to secure Pakistan's nukes could succeed.
It's no secret that the United States has a plan to try to grab Pakistan's nuclear weapons -- if and when the president believes they are a threat to either the U.S. or U.S. interests. Among the scenarios seen as most likely: Pakistan plunging into internal chaos, terrorists mounting a serious attack against a nuclear facility, hostilities breaking out with India or Islamic extremists taking charge of the government or the Pakistan army.
In the aftermath of the bin Laden raid, U.S. military officials have testified before Congress about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the threat posed by "loose nukes" – nuclear weapons or materials outside the government's control. And earlier Pentagon reports also outline scenarios in which U.S. forces would intervene to secure nuclear weapons that were in danger of falling into the wrong hands.
But out of fear of further antagonizing an important ally, officials have simultaneously tried to tone down the rhetoric by stressing progress made by Islamabad on the security front.
Such discussions of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, now believed to consist of as many as 115 nuclear bombs and missile warheads, have gotten the attention of current and former Pakistani officials. In an interview with NBC News early this month, Musharraf warned that a snatch-and-grab operation would lead to all-out war between the countries, calling it "total confrontation by the whole nation against whoever comes in."
Michael Thomas / AP
Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf met with Texas Gov. Rick Perry on July 12 in Austin to exchange ideas about improving the economy and discuss the strained relationship between the U.S. and Pakistani governments. Musharraf has been critical of the White House's recent suspension of $800 million in U.S. aid to the Pakistani military, saying the decreased aid will hurt his country and hinder its fight against terrorism.
"These are assets which are the pride of Pakistan, assets which are dispersed and very secure in very secure places, guarded by a corps of 18,000 soldiers," said a combative Musharraf, who led Pakistan for nearly a decade and is again running for president. "… (This) is not an army which doesn't know how to fight. This is an army which has fought three wars. Please understand that."
Pervez Hoodboy, Pakistan's best known nuclear physicist and a human rights advocate, rarely agrees with the former president. But he, too, says a U.S. attempt to take control of Pakistan's nukes would be foolhardy.
"They are said to be hidden in tunnels under mountains, in cities, as well as regular air force and army bases," he said. "A U.S. snatch operation could trigger war; it should never be attempted."
Despite such comments, interviews with current and former U.S. officials, military reports and even congressional testimony indicate that Pakistan's weaponry has been the subject of continuing discussions, scenarios, war games and possibly even military exercises by U.S. intelligence and special operations forces regarding so-called "snatch-and-grab" operations.
"It's safe to assume that planning for the worst-case scenario regarding Pakistan nukes has ready taken place inside the U.S. government," said Roger Cressey, former deputy director of counterterrorism in the Clinton and Bush White House and an NBC News consultant. "This issue remains one of the highest priorities of the U.S. intelligence community ... and the White House."
Carefully worded assurances
Mindful of the growing distrust and suspicions between Washington and Islamabad, U.S. officials have publicly tried to defuse concerns that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could be compromised. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress two weeks ago that Pakistan's atomic arsenal has become "physically more secure" and the U.S. has seen "training improve" for personnel charged with securing the weapons.
But does "more secure" and "improved" training mean the Pakistanis have met U.S. standards?
Jeffrey T. Richelson, an intelligence historian, has written extensively about the possibility of a U.S. military operation aimed at Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, notably in his 2009 book "Defusing Armageddon." The book focuses on the U.S. Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST), which might play leading a role in disarming Pakistani weapons along with elements of the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).
The nuts-and-bolts of how such an operation would work – such as whether teams would attempt to disarm or destroy the weapons – remain highly classified.
But Richelson notes that without referring to Pakistan by name, Gen. Peter Pace, then-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in 2006 discussed two types of operations where in which the U.S. military would seek to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of al-Qaida or other militants.
Detailed in a military policy document titled "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction," the two scenarios were: "elimination operations" – defined as "operations systematically to locate, characterize, secure, disable and/or destroy a State or non-State actor's WMD programs and related capabilities" – and "interdiction operations" – finding and seizing nuclear devices or nuclear material it has been removed from a nation's storage bunkers but not yet delivered to a terrorist group.
Richelson also obtained an unclassified PowerPoint presentation titled "Detecting, Identifying and Localizing WMD" by the Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (SOLIC). In it were slides referring to "clandestine or low-visibility special operations taken to: locate, seize, destroy, capture, recover or render safe WMD," either on land or sea. He said such a mission has been a special operations forces priority since 2002.
Neither the report nor the PowerPoint presentation specify where such operations would be considered, but Richelson says that both were prepared with Pakistan in mind.
"The focus on Pakistan," he wrote, "is the result of its being both the least stable of the nine nuclear weapons states and the one where there has been significant support for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, not only among the general population but also within the military and intelligence forces."
Publicly, U.S. officials don't want to embarrass or infuriate Pakistani officials by suggesting such an operation would be possible, a point brought home in a White House press conference on April 29, 2009. After President Barack Obama spoke of the confidence he had in the Pakistani Army's ability to secure the nuclear weapons, NBC News' Chuck Todd began to ask if the U.S. military would step in and seize weapons that were at risk.
Obama quickly cut him off. "I'm not going to engage in hypotheticals of that sort. I feel confident that nuclear arsenal will remain out of militant hands, OK?"
'All nuclear matters are controlled by the army'
While the U.S. has a non-proliferation policy that aims for the elimination of Third World weaponry, it also has been working with Islamabad to minimize the current threat, sending an estimated $100 million to Pakistan since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to improve the safety and security of the Pakistani nukes.
But Pakistan never permitted U.S. officials to visit the weapons bunkers or see how the U.S.-purchased equipment was working. In fact, Richelson writes, the Pakistanis have gone so far as to set up decoy bunkers to throw off anyone trying to keep track of the arsenal.
And physical security and protection from terrorists only addresses one aspect of the threat, Hoodboy said.
"Technology determines safety, but only partly," he told NBC News. "Ultimately it depends upon the men who have control over nuclear weapons. … Governments come, governments go. But all nuclear matters are controlled by the army. The important question is whether the army has total, absolute control over its nukes. I have no idea whether this control is absolute, and doubt how anyone can know for sure."
There are additional reasons to be concerned. In July 2009, for example, the journal of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point reported that "home-grown terrorists" had tried to enter Pakistani nuclear facilities three times between 2007 and 2008, when Pakistan was wracked by rioting and a series of destructive suicide bombings.
Shaun Gregory, director of the Pakistan Security Research Center at the University of Bradford in England, wrote of the attacks.
"These have included an attack on the nuclear missile storage facility at Sarghoda on Nov. 1, 2007, an attack on Pakistan's nuclear air base at Kamra by a suicide bomber on Dec. 10, 2007, and, perhaps most significantly, the Aug. 20, 2008, attack when Pakistani Taliban suicide bombers blew up several entry points to one of the armament complexes at the Wah cantonment, considered one of Pakistan's main nuclear weapons assembly sites."
Pakistani officials have played down the seriousness of such attacks, noting that the attackers were unable to enter what are large military bases, much less penetrate the inner defenses.
Musharraf, who was president of Pakistan during the three reported attacks, dismissed the threat in talking with NBC News. Asked if terrorists were targeting Pakistan's nuclear assets, he replied, "I don't think so. I don't think they are trying actively to get to our nuclear assets. And we have no such intelligence. Never."
His statement is, at best, a disingenuous and narrow reading of the intelligence, according to former senior U.S. intelligence officials, who like the others quoted in this article spoke on condition of anonymity. These officials point to an August 2001 campfire meeting between bin Laden and his successor, Ayman al Zawahiri, and two Pakistani nuclear scientists, part of a so-called Islamic charity called UTN, on the other. With planning for the 9/11 attacks nearly complete, the two al-Qaida leaders wanted a tutorial on nuclear weapons development, according to U.S. intelligence reports.
Tenet's tense meeting
Then-CIA Director George Tenet, in fact, wrote in his memoir, "At the Center of the Storm," of a tense discussion he had with Musharraf in Islamabad shortly after the U.S. found out about the meeting.
"After a few pleasantries … I launched into a description of the campfire meeting between (O)sama bin Laden, al-Zawahiri and the UTN leaders," Tenet wrote. "'Mr. President,' I said, 'you cannot imagine the outrage there would be in my country if it were learned that Pakistan is coddling scientists who are helping bin Laden acquire a nuclear weapon. Should such a device ever be used, the full fury of the American people would be focused on whoever helped al-Qaida in its cause."
In a testimony before Congress four months ago, the CIA's new director, Gen. David Petraeus, left little doubt the U.S. still fears the worst. "There are certainly elements in Pakistan, the Pakistani Taliban and several other varieties of elements who generally have symbiotic relationships, the most extreme of which might, indeed, value access to nuclear weapons or other weapons that could cause enormous loss of life," said Petraeus, then commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan.
Like others in the U.S. government, however, Petraeus felt duty bound to note, "There is considerable security for the Pakistani nuclear weapons." But he appeared to choose his words with care. "Considerable" does not mean "state of the art," for example.
Not everyone thinks the U.S. is very worried about Pakistan's nukes falling into the wrong hands. Zia Mian, a colleague of Hoodboy's and director of the Project on Peace and Security in South Asia at Princeton, said war gaming and exercising for dire situations is something the Pentagon and CIA do all the time.
"The U.S. exercised global nuclear war. They've exercised attacking Iran. You've got to be ready," Mian argues. "It suggests to me there are people whose job is to be worried. So when someone asks you, you say you're worried. But when you're reading the WikiLeaks disclosure, when you read embassy talking points, the nuclear weapons barely figure."
Of course, the main question is if, in the last resort, the U.S. did attempt to "snatch" Pakistan's weapons, would it work? Hoodboy thinks it's unlikely to have the intended effect and could very well lead to one of two scenarios, both with potentially disastrous outcomes.
"An American attack on Pakistan's nuclear production or storage sites would be extremely dangerous and counterproductive," he said. "By comparison the bin Laden operation involved only minor risks. Even if a single Pakistani nuke (out of roughly 100) escapes destruction, that last one could be unimaginably dangerous." Hoodboy added that no seems to have thought through another scenario, one where there is confusion about who snatched the bomb. "The situation is more uncertain than even this. For one, it might trigger nuclear war with India, even if India was not involved in the snatch."
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subset: commoncrawl


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CHICAGO — The latest campaign tactic in an already heated race for Illinois governor — fake news releases — drew a scolding Friday from the state's highest-ranking Democrat.
U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin called a fake news release sent by the Illinois Republican Party "a new low." But it was Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn's campaign that started the shenanigans.
They issued a news release Thursday night and again Friday morning purportedly from Republican rival Bruce Rauner's campaign. It said Rauner would "emerge from hiding" to discuss whether he used "clout" — namely his connections with Chicago Public Schools officials and donations to CPS — to get his daughter into an exclusive high school. The email also listed two locations where Rauner was holding campaign events.
The state GOP, with the blessing of the Rauner campaign, then sent an email falsely stating Durbin would call on Quinn to testify in the investigation of his troubled anti-violence program. Federal and Cook County authorities and the state's Legislative Audit Commission are looking into the $55 million Neighborhood Recovery Initiative, which was the subject of a scathing state audit earlier this year.
The GOP's email included a phone number and email address for Durbin's spokeswoman, bringing a rebuke from Illinois' senior senator.
"I know things get tough, but this is a new low," Durbin said. "For goodness sakes, let's maintain some credibility with the public and the media in terms of our releases."
But his comments only cued more finger pointing.
Quinn spokeswoman Brooke Anderson noted Rauner has yet to answer new questions about his daughter's admission to Walter Payton College Prep.
"Our memo was clearly a light-hearted attempt to let the press know where Mr. Rauner would be," Anderson said.
Illinois GOP spokesman Andrew Welhouse called the party's news release a "tongue in cheek" attempt to draw attention to an important issue.
And Rauner spokesman Mike Schrimpf turned the tables back on Durbin.
"Dick Durbin should talk to Pat Quinn about it," Schrimpf said. "And while he's at it, he should tell him to testify about (the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative)."


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The Aimee Leduc mystery series by Cara Black.
Each one takes a different Paris neighborhood as its setting and you can't help but feel like you've had a cafe creme on a cobblestone street side cafe after reading a chapter or two. The action is fast-paced and our fearless, smart protagonist is always ahead of the game in her two-inch heel boots.
Making it New: The Art and Style of Sara and Gerald Murphy
This was one of my favorite reads from last summer and no wonder as it was a gift from a friend whose recommendations are always stellar. Traipse through 1920s Paris and the south of France with the Murphys who played as muse to Fitzgerald, Hemingway, Picasso et al. This book focuses on their aesthetic lifestyle and legacy. Heavily illustrated.
Charlotte Perriand: A Life of Creation by Charlotte Perriand
Read in the enigmatic architect and designer's own words about her unconventional life and career working with Le Corbusier, Pierre Jeanneret, Jean Prouve, and more. First published in 1998 the year before her death.
Queen of Fashion: What Marie Antoinette Wore to the Revolution by Caroline Weber
Because the personal is political and what you put on your body is revealing. This biography of style came out awhile ago but as I am preparing a seminar on French 18th century design at NYSID this fall, this is the perfect book to get me in the Versailles mood.
Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill
Michael Bruno, founder of 1stdibs, often attributes this book as a major factor in his success. As someone who has just started her own business, I am very interested in this topic - whereas once I might have considered it vulgar. After only reading the first chapter, I can attest that it does make you laser focus in on money and consequently putting a price on everything you do. One starts to weigh each activity in terms of if it will bring one closer to one's goal or not. The result for me so far is to value my time more and embrace the power of no!
And please do share - what is on your table poolside?


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The state's child welfare agency wants to fill 187 direct-service jobs across Illinois as soon as possible – but is asking its own workers not to apply.
The state's child welfare agency wants to fill 187 direct-service jobs across Illinois as soon as possible – but is asking its own workers not to apply.
Over the past year, the Illinois Department of Children and Family Services has posted 181 direct-service vacancies, according to a memo sent this week to direct-service workers, but only 23 were filled by applicants from outside the agency. The rest were taken by DCFS workers who wanted to change jobs.
"Basically, all we have been doing is moving our vacancies around," the memo from acting DCFS director Erwin McEwen states, "and at the same time, the high stress levels of staff remain the same. We are no further ahead with meeting our direct-service needs today than we were a year ago."
The 187 vacancies represent about 10 percent of the budgeted direct-service staff, DCFS spokesman Kendall Marlowe said Wednesday.
Direct-service employees include caseworkers, investigators and those who follow up on the agency's actions.
"This has been an ongoing challenge to the department," Marlowe said.
Filling the vacancies as quickly as possible, McEwen's memo said, "is critical in order for all of us to have a sufficient number of staff working to meet the demands of our abuse and neglect investigations, as well as our services to intact families and children in placement."
In the memo, McEwen acknowledges that direct-service workers have a right under their union contract to bid on other direct-service positions. However, he asks them to "exercise restraint" to allow "the hiring process to proceed expeditiously to the phase that will bring in new people to fill these current vacancies."
A spokesman for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, which represents the direct-service workers, agreed that the agency is short-staffed but called McEwen's memo "misleading."
The delays are not caused by the union contract, said Anders Lindall of AFSCME, the largest state employee union. They result from a policy that requires permission from the governor's office and its budget department before state agencies can fill vacancies, he said.
"It's caused it to be extremely slow, if not impractical," Lindall said.
"We respectfully disagree," Marlowe responded. "We have received the full support of the governor's office in filling the critical positions. We have encountered no barriers whatsoever."
"Long delays filling vacancies is never a good thing," said Benjamin Wolf, an attorney for the American Civil Liberties Union of Illinois, which filed a federal lawsuit that led to major reforms in the state's child welfare system in the 1990s. He said, however, he does not believe DCFS is violating the consent decree that specified the reforms.
"I don't know that this is the right strategy, but something needs to be done," Wolf said. He said he's not certain what is causing the hiring delays.
"The process seems to be taking even longer than usual with this administration, but I don't know why," Wolf said.
Dana Heupel can be reached at (217) 788-1518 or email@example.com.


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In Episode 76 we tune in to the other side as we explore Electronic Voice Phenomenon (EVP) with Mike Markowicz! Markowicz is an electronics tinkerer who first got into spirit communication almost a decade ago. Since then he's gone on to develop specialized equipment for recording Electronic Voice Phenomenon, he's become a sought after lecturer on the topic, he's the co-host of East Bridgewater's Most Haunted, and the author of EVP: Electronic Voice Phenomenon: Massachusetts Ghostly Voices. In this episode he shares his evidence and methods live in the mother ship. From children's screams to otherworldly come-ons, check out these recordings!
1 thought on "Episode 76 – Electronic Voice Phenomenon (EVP) with Mike Markowicz"
Great show. Mark it 8!
The Dude abides.


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In Brief
Society has difficult decisions to make about how best to allocate its resources to ensure future sustainability. Risk assessment can be a valuable tool: it has long been used to support decisions to address environmental problems. But in a time when the risks to sustainability range from climate change to terrorism, applying risk assessment to sustainability will require careful rethinking. For new threats, we will need a new approach to risk assessment.
Key Concepts
The future is uncertain, and risk assessments are our way of navigating uncertainty. They can contribute to decision making about sustainability, especially by making comparisons across major domains of risk, like climate change and terrorism.
Comparing one risk to another requires examining various driving factors, the ways the risk unfolds over time, and how it impacts affected groups.
Traditional risk models are limited in their assessment of sustainability problems. Complex threats such as climate change and terrorism require a rethinking of the conventional risk assessment approach.
Decisions about how to allocate resources to mitigate various risks will require both scientific understanding and a weighing of public values.
Albert Einstein, to his death, could never accept the probabilistic underpinnings and uncertainties of quantum mechanics. In a letter to Max Born in 1926 he wrote, "I am convinced that God does not play dice with the universe." In the following year, at a physics conference, Niels Bohr admonished Einstein to stop telling God what to do.1
Even the world's greatest minds struggle to cope with uncertainty. That's why we have risk assessment: a method—comprising the identification, analysis, and management of risk—used worldwide for measuring risk and uncertainty. Risk assessment does for uncertainty what money does for valuing goods and services: it creates a common metric for comparing choices and making decisions. However, conventional risk assessment is being challenged by the rapid growth in risk domains—spheres of public decision making with high levels of uncertainty—that call for systematic assessments: toxins, bioengineering, climate change, rapid resource loss, and terrorism. Each of these represents a formidable challenge to a livable future, even if some are excluded from the conventional discourse on sustainability.
Consider, for example, two of today's most publicized and politicized threats to sustainability: climate change and terrorism. How much financial, intellectual, and policy capital should be spent on climate change, an indirect threat to sustainability, and how much on terrorism, a proximate threat to human lives? Though it is seldom done systematically, comparing different threats is essential because we are allocating scarce public and private resources to manage multiple risks to human safety and well-being. In addition, lessons from one risk domain can transfer to another and provide new insights.
To apply the logic of risk management to sustainability, we must change how we think about risk. Sustainability requires that we consider risks that cross many sectors of human activity (like climate change) and emergent risks (like concerns about the health risks posed by nanotechnology) and that we even consider the possibility that our current tools are not up to the challenge.
The standard risk model reduces the complexities of risk into three components: the context, the probability of occurrence, and the consequences of an unfavorable outcome. This approach assumes that decisions can be made based on measurable outcomes, such as the expected number of illnesses or deaths.2 (For example, most toxic substances are regulated based on estimates of how many illnesses or deaths will result from their use.) Like all models, risk analysis is merely a crude rendition of the world it depicts. It imposes order on the world by ignoring many psychological and social dimensions of risk, such as dread, sense of personal control, equity, and justice, that could potentially affect our priorities and desires for managing risk.
What limitation does this modeling impose on our understanding of real threats? Ecologist Richard Levins provided one answer four decades ago.3–5 Risk models seek to address three key criteria: realism, precision, and generality. By realism, he meant the extent to which the models omit artificial or simplified assumptions about a complex system. By precision, he meant the extent to which models make exacting predictions, such as accurate estimates of probabilities. By generality, he meant the extent to which models apply to multiple contexts and are, for instance, translatable between situations or locations. But as Levins convincingly showed, risk models cannot simultaneously maximize all three criteria. He noted three logical strategies for selecting the optimum model: (1) sacrifice generality to realism and precision, yielding a realistic model that can make precise predictions for a particular context (we will call this approach iterative); (2) sacrifice realism to generality and precision, for a model that can generate exacting (but not very realistic) predictions for a variety of situations or locations (the conventional approach); or (3) sacrifice precision to realism and generality, for a realistic model that can be used in different contexts but that does not yield precise predictions (we will call this last approach adaptive).
The field of quantitative risk assessment, perhaps unknowingly, presupposes that sacrificing realism in the conventional approach is equally effective in assessing or comparing virtually all threats, even terrorism and climate change. (This approach estimates risks by multiplying the probability of an event times the exposure to risk.) However, with the rapid growth in threats and their complexity, an emphasis on generality and precision at the cost of realism is not always adequate or effective; indeed, the results may be misleading.
While the conventional strategy has been the predominate strategy used in risk assessment, we believe the iterative and adaptive strategies may be more appropriate for certain complex risks to sustainability. For example, for climate change, the best approach may be to eschew precision in favor of realism and generality, using the adaptive approach ("adaptive" because it can be applied to different contexts). Terrorism risks, on the other hand, are best assessed by the iterative approach—repetitive reassessments capable of keeping up with changing terrorist strategies. The iterative model emphasizes appropriate precision and realism because generality can lead to over- (or under-) estimates of threat.
Climate Change
Standard risk analysis, while useful for understanding specific aspects of climate change, fails in assessing the problem's overall risk. This is due to the complexity and the intractable uncertainties of the climate system. Currently, it is simply not possible to establish precise, quantitative relationships between levels of climate change and impacts on human and ecological systems.6 Indeed, the difficulty in developing a comprehensive "damage function" linking climate change to the harm it causes is often cited as a limit of using risk analysis in the climate context. To understand the influence of climate change on ecosystems, for example, we need to know not just how global average temperature will change but how climate change will drive the date of the last freezing temperatures and the first hard frosts, how it will change the amount of rainfall and its distribution across seasons, and how it will affect a variety of other drivers that are critical to ecosystem functioning but are hard to forecast at the local level.6
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change defines its objective as "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."7 But what are "dangerous" levels of interference? Answering this question requires a more complete scientific understanding of how the climate system responds to abrupt change, how humans and ecosystems will respond to gradual or abrupt change, and the economic costs of prevention, mitigation, preparedness, and adaptation. In other words, the very definitional factors of risk (context, probability, and outcome) are the ones that currently elude us.
Given these uncertainties, we should develop new, more inclusive management strategies that involve scientists, policymakers, a wider public, and the private sector in something called analytic-deliberative (A-D) decision making.8,9–11 In the A-D approach, researchers and citizens interact to determine key issues and to ensure that the science is attentive to local conditions and public concern and that the public is informed by the best available science. The A-D approach is a sharp contrast to past practices where science proceeded without public discussion and where public discussion was decoupled from scientific understanding.
Public involvement should be focused on developing more effective communication strategies and tools for making decisions under conditions of deep complexity and uncertainty.12 For example, coastal communities face diverse risks from climate change and sea level rise, with different community members bearing different risks and costs. In order to make sound decisions, those communities will need to understand the uncertainties inherent in current projections of sea level rise and to wrestle with the inevitable equity issues in responding to those risks. Processes, such as the A-D approach, that effectively meld scientific analysis with public deliberation seem the most appropriate way of approaching such challenges. Adopting this approach would mean abandoning the standard risk assessment model for one that emphasizes the realism and generality of the adaptive strategy in the management of climate risks. Here's why: For coastal communities, the analysis must be realistic in capturing the details of threats to specific coastal areas, as those threats will depend on topography, ecology, population density, community makeup, and history. Since the effects of climate change and sea level rise cannot be predicted with great precision, the analysis must be general enough to be useful under a variety of possible scenarios. The analysis may not be very precise, but it could still give communities a better understanding of their options as they plan their responses to climate change.
In contrast to climate change, which is diffuse, cumulative, and systemic, terrorism is episodic, abrupt, and localized. It has been virtually ignored in the sustainability discourse to date, yet it clearly can have a degrading, if little analyzed, effect on any effort to move toward a livable, more secure future. Terrorism poses greater analytic challenges than virtually any other emerging risk. Not only are there deep uncertainties about the likelihood and final consequences of terrorist attacks, but there is even uncertainty about the context in which attacks may occur and, in contrast to climate change, very few efforts have been made by the appropriate sciences to understand terrorism. Indeed, the resultant inability to credibly predict attacks partly defines terrorism, and reinforcing these uncertainties is a terrorist strategy.
To these challenges we can add an even more fundamental, paradigmatic one, namely a challenge to the "rational actor" presupposition of Western thought that underlies risk management in the conventional risk assessment strategy.2 The rational actor perspective presupposes that self-interested individuals purposively choose the course of action that is the most efficient or that most optimally achieves their desired ends. Current risk management approaches for countering terrorism presume that terrorists are making rational choices. Instrumental rationality—the pursuit of the most cost-effective means to achieve a desired end—too, is falsely presumed to be employed across belief systems. It is this thinking embedded in the conventional strategy that engenders the dangerously false assumption that terrorists offer their lives in martyrdom for seventy-two virgins waiting in heaven—that a terrorist's choice reflects a cost-benefit decision, with the benefits in paradise. As an approach to analyzing terrorism, conventional risk assessment is grossly misleading.
Empirical evidence contradicts the rational actor expectation. Interviews with jihadi terrorists and their loved ones show that individuals who join the jihad, especially would-be "martyrs" (e.g., suicide bombers), are often motivated by values that stem from small-group dynamics, that is, from peer groups.13 These values trump the rational self-interest that is presumed in the conventional risk assessment approach. The following is a revealing illustration of the difference between the instrumental rationality of the rational actor perspective in the West and the moral rationality of the jihadi warriors (mujahedin). One of the fundamental tenets of instrumental rationality is the principle of transitivity. That is, if A is preferred to B and B is preferred to C, then A must be preferred to C.
Scott Atran13 administered the following questionnaire to Indonesian mujahedin:
Question 1: Would you give up a roadside bombing (B) if it meant you could make the only pilgrimage to Mecca (A)? (Most answered yes).
Question 2: Would you give up a suicide bombing (C) to instead carry out a roadside bombing (B) if it is possible? (Most answered yes).
Question 3: Could you give up a suicide bombing (C) if it meant you could make the only pilgrimage to Mecca (A) in your lifetime? (Most answered no).
This set of responses—where A>B, and B>C, but C>A—violates the transitivity principal and, therefore, the expectations of instrumental rationality.
Furthermore, our belief in the universality of instrumental rationality can cause our efforts to diffuse or avoid conflict to backfire.14 For example, both Palestinian Hamas militants and Israeli settlers report feeling disgusted by material incentives offered by the other side. In one scenario, Israeli settlers were offered a deal to give up the West Bank to Palestinians in return for peace and an American subsidy to Israel of $1 billion a year for 100 years. This offer was acceptable to settlers who had chosen to live in the Occupied Territories for economic reasons or to improve their quality of life (for them, the land was not sacred). But once material incentives were introduced, settlers who believed the Occupied Territories to be God's ancient trust to them reported feeling angry and disgusted by the offer and said that they would be more willing to use violence to oppose it.
This means that our standard calculations of how to defeat or deter an enemy—by providing material incentives to defect (instrumental benefits) or by threatening massive retaliation (costs) against supporting populations, for example—are misaligned with the moral logic of terrorists and might backfire. Instead, we believe the most appropriate approach to understanding terrorism risk would be based on the iterative strategy, which emphasizes realism and precision at the cost of generality (for terrorism, as we have just shown, a one-size-fits-all approach would be misleading). For terrorism risk, the analysis must be realistic, taking account of complex and changing situational factors that shape potential terrorist actions and vulnerabilities. What motivates one aggrieved group, whether it is Al Qaeda, the Taliban, or more localized cells, to embrace terrorism as a tactic may not produce the same results in a different group. Atran summarizes the point: "The growth and development of terrorist networks is largely a decentralized and evolutionary process, based upon contingent adaptations to unpredictable events and improbable opportunities, more the result of localized tinkering (of fragmentary connections between semi-autonomous parts) than intelligent design (hierarchical command and control)."13
While risk estimates may never be numerically precise, the iterative strategy embraces precision by being specific to the context of each potentially threatening situation and by attending to the cultural and political dynamics that can exacerbate or diffuse the risk.
How to Make Better Decisions in the Face of Multiple Risks
When establishing risk management priorities, three groups—experts, decision makers, and the public—must be at the table. Stakeholder groups must be matched by relevance to, and expertise about, the domains to be assessed. While analytic-deliberative processes have not been applied to all risk domains relevant to sustainability, there is a wealth of experience in melding scientific analysis and public deliberation across a wide variety of environmental and natural-resource issues, such as management of toxic sites or the use of fisheries, that can provide guidance for designing processes for new risk domains.9,10
Meanwhile, appropriate tools and methods needed to assess and compare risks across domains are currently not available—at least none have been developed specifically for cross-domain comparisons. But there are many tools available that can be applied within domains: game theory, scenario development, policy planning and gaming exercises, computer simulations, and integrated assessments, to name a few.15 Perhaps the most promising and innovative approach is domain-specific integrated assessments, conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)16 for the domain of climate change and by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) for the domain of global biodiversity.17 In principle, the procedures applied in these assessments could be translated to the cross-domain challenge and expanded to consider the broad set of challenges to sustainability.18 Two features would be of obvious value. First, the IPCC and MEA charged authors with assessing both the strength of evidence and the degree of certainty behind each of their conclusions.19 This distinction between the two is crucial but not always given adequate attention in risk characterizations. For example, it is possible to have a substantial body of evidence regarding environmental stressors, such as greenhouse gases or biodiversity loss, but still have considerable uncertainty about their proximate or distal impacts. Using this approach consistently across domains could help calibrate a cross-domain assessment of risk.
Second, both the IPCC and MEA developed scenarios about the future of the global economy, which were then used to ground projections of environmental stressors.20–23 These integrated scenarios offer three immediate advantages. First, they provide transparency by making explicit the assumptions about future expectations and how alternative assumptions affect risks. Second, the use of common scenarios across domains facilitates risk comparisons across assessments. Third, open discussion of the scenarios reveals underlying presuppositions about individual and organizational behavior that are a part of all risk assessments but often remain unrecognized and unexamined.2
One promising direction for threat comparison might be to abandon the conventional risk assessment model in favor of a "risk governance" paradigm.24 Arguably, risk governance—simultaneously analyzing risks while developing policies and programs to mitigate and manage these risks—is better suited for risk contexts with deep uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. In these situations, uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction, though care must be taken to preserve flexibility so that we can adjust policies as the effects of, say, climate change actually unfold. This would allow governments to better manage allocation of resources among multiple threats over time, which is the ultimate goal.
While the analytic challenges are formidable, there are tractable first steps. We can press risk analysts in all domains to use consistent language about uncertainty and to be clear about the scenarios that underpin their analyses, following the lead of global change assessments, such as those of the MEA and IPCC. We can initiate cross-domain comparisons, starting with sketches as simple as Table 1 but moving to more systematic comparisons. Finally, we can acknowledge that decisions about allocating resources across domains involve weighing hard facts, expert judgments, and public values and thus must involve both scientific analysis and public deliberation.


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Media Hypocrisy: When DC Insiders Leak Gov't Talking Points About NSA, No One Has A Cow
from the how-about-that... deptIf you haven't seen it yet, Glenn Greenwald gave a fantastic speech last week about all of the NSA surveillance leaks. The whole speech is about an hour long, but I wanted to highlight one key point, in which Greenwald discusses how the leaks haven't just outed the NSA surveillance, but the subservience of the DC press to the government they cover. The embed below should start right at the moment he discusses this, but if not, it's at 42:20:
"But what was really amazing was that 90 seconds later, he was calling for my prosecution, for having disclosed classified information, and yet, he, 90 seconds earlier, had just gotten done saying that somebody in the government had come to him and described this top secret court document, which he then disclosed to the public and to the world, by telling me what he thought it said."He then describes how Barbara Starr, a CNN reporter who covers the Pentagon -- though, Greenwald jokingly calls her the "Pentagon spokesperson who works for CNN as the 'Pentagon reporter'" -- did the exact same thing, disclosing that US officials are claiming that terrorists are "changing tactics" following the Snowden leaks, based on claims from "anonymous" government sources. These anonymous government sources sure are busy. I had been collecting a few such examples, but Michael Calderone at HuffPo beat me to it by highlighting a whole bunch of similar stories:
Of course, the details are incredibly sparse to non-existent. And, frankly, that's understandable since it seems like it's almost surely bullshit. The report from Starr claimed the following:
Anonymous officials this week have told several news organizations -– often using nearly identical language -- that the NSA leaks had prompted members of terrorist groups to change the way they communicate.
A "senior intelligence official" to ABC News on Monday:"The intelligence community is already seeing indications that several terrorist groups are in fact attempting to change their communication behaviors based on what they're reading about our surveillance programs in the media."
A "senior intelligence official" to the Washington Post on Monday:Already, several terrorist groups in various regions of the world have begun to change their method of communication based on disclosures of surveillance programs in the media, the official said. He would not elaborate on the communication modes.
A "US intelligence official" to CNN on Tuesday:"We can confirm we are seeing indications that several terrorist groups are in fact attempting to change their communications behaviors based specifically on what they are reading about our surveillance programs in the media."
Two "US national security sources" to Reuters on Tuesday:Intelligence agencies have detected that members of targeted militant organizations, including both Sunni and Shi'ite Islamist groups, have begun altering communications patterns in what was believed to be a direct response to details on eavesdropping leaked by the former U.S. spy agency contractor, two U.S. national security sources said.
Two "U.S. intelligence officials" to the AP on Wednesday:Two U.S. intelligence officials say members of virtually every terrorist group, including core al-Qaida members, are attempting to change how they communicate, based on what they are reading in the media, to hide from U.S. surveillance.
The administration official offered an example of one concern: Terrorists may be less inclined to communicate via "clean" e-mail accounts that have no links to them because they believe the U.S. government can track those.But... does anyone seriously believe that terrorists are so dumb that they're communicating via basic email accounts like that? We're talking about Al Qaeda, who was so careful with Osama bin Laden's communications that he typed out his emails on a thumb drive, which someone else then took far away to input into a computer. Terrorists know the US government is spying on them, and so far none of the revelations has been all that surprising or revealing about how the government spies on terrorists. The concern has been about how the public is swept up in the process.
But, really, all of those stories above seem a hell of a lot more revealing about US intelligence techniques than anything that Ed Snowden has leaked. MSNBC's Chris Hayes is spot on in this scathing response to Starr and others, and the "media insiders" as he notes that the reports of government officials telling the world that terrorists are changing how they communicate seems a lot more revealing, but no one seems to be calling for any of the reporters above to go to jail:
This article not only self-servingly advances the narrative that the intelligence community would like us to believe -- that the Edward Snowden leaks have helped the terrorists -- but, in doing so, it could be seen as doing far more in alerting terror groups to what the US intelligence community knows about them and their communications than anything published by the Guardian or the Washington Post. And yet, somehow, I have not heard members of Congress calling Barbara Starr's reporting dangerous, or pushing for her prosecution...The whole video is great. But, between all of these things, you see the same thing over and over again. The actual leaks from Ed Snowden don't appear to be damaging, other than to the reputations of some in DC. And the later leaks being used to tar and feather Snowden appear to be much more revealing. But, somehow the insider press is fine with "leaks" that support the government's official position, but aren't okay when the leaks actually challenge the government.
Funny how that works. Or, rather, not funny at all.
Filed Under: barbara starr, chris hayes, david gregory, ed snowden, glenn greenwald, hypocrisy, journalism, leaks, media


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|November 4, 2013
|2:00 - 3:00 pm
|Nursing School 407
|Audience: Faculty/Staff
In January, Baylor will offer a PPO + HSA Plan (BlueEdgeSM), which is a consumer driven health plan with a Health Savings Account (HSA) that empowers you to make informed health care decisions while achieving your health and financial goals. All Baylor employees eligible for our medical plan and who do not currently have medical coverage from another source, such as the military or Medicare, can enroll. Join us for this class to learn how the PPO + HSA Plan can help you save on taxes, reduce your out-of-pocket costs, and grow your available health care dollars through investment opportunities.
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CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Ben A. Bahr, the William C. Friday Distinguished Professor of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry at the University of North Carolina Pembroke, received the James E. Holshouser Jr. Award for Excellence in Public Service today from the Board of Governors of the 17-campus University of North Carolina.
Watch profile of Ben Bahr (aired on UNC TV's North Carolina Now, Nov. 11, 2013)
The award, presented during the board's regular November meeting, was established in 2007 to encourage, identify, recognize and reward distinguished public service and outreach by faculty across the university system. The award was recently renamed in honor and memory of the late Holshouser, who was governor of North Carolina from 1973-77 and served on the University's Board of Governors for more than three decades. The 2013 award carries a $7,500 cash prize and was presented by UNC President Tom Ross and Public Service Award Committee members Raiford Trask and Dick Taylor of Lumberton.
An internationally recognized expert on age-related neuro-degenerative disorders, Bahr was recruited to UNC Pembroke in 2009, where he continues to conduct cutting-edge research on Alzheimer's disease and other brain disorders. UNCP is known primarily as a teaching institution, and Bahr's work has enabled undergraduate students to participate in groundbreaking research that has global implications for improving health and quality of life.
By first identifying the pathways through which brain cells eliminate destructive proteins, Bahr has been able to create ways to accelerate that process. Research shows that removing these proteins improves cognition and memory in laboratory animals, potentially improving the long-term outlook for people suffering from or at risk for Alzheimer's and related disorders. Bahr has since identified a drug compound that could slow or even reverse the course of the disease, and last year filed UNCP's first patent application.
An equally gifted teacher, Bahr is absolutely passionate about mentoring undergraduate students and helping them gain the skills and experience necessary to gain admission to graduate school. He routinely involves UNCP undergraduates in his research and publishing on brain activity and pathology, and currently has more than a dozen conducting independent research in his laboratory. Many of his former students are now advancing to teaching and biomedical research careers of their own. This commitment to hands-on teaching recently earned him the Outstanding Mentor Award from the Council for Undergraduate Research.
Bahr has also become an important ambassador for UNCP, with frequent speaking engagements to civic groups, local schools, community colleges and science-related organizations. Through such outreach, he works hard to bring the brain and its disorders to an understandable level for every type of audience, and to educate the community about the importance of Alzheimer's research and other areas of medical research. In addition to raising public awareness of the disease and recent advances, he also regularly consults with local Alzheimer's caregivers.
Bahr holds undergraduate degrees in molecular biology and biochemistry, along with a doctorate in chemistry, from the University of California-Santa Barbara. He also completed postdoctoral work at the Center for Neurobiology of Learning and Memory at the University of California-Irvine.
A video profile of Bahr will air Monday, November 11 on UNC-TV's North Carolina Now at 7:30 p.m.
An open reception to congratulate Dr. Bahr will be held on campus Monday, November 25, 3:30-5 p.m. in the Chancellor's Dining Room of the James B. Chavis University Center.
For more information contact Joni Worthington at 919.962.4629 or email@example.com.


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Our Opportunities
If you're an independent agent, National Agents Alliance® is the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity you've been waiting for. We're here to help you build your career the way you want to, whether that means working in the field writing business or running your own independent agency. How does NAA® do it? We give you the tools to build serious potential income with both back-end residuals and up-front commissions. National Agents Alliance® is the place to make the amount of money you've always wanted to make, but never dreamed you could.
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National Agents Alliance® has made it its mission to employ the best products, people, and programs in the financial services industry to help you achieve your greatest potential. When you join us, you'll have access to:
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JACKSONVLLE, Fla. – The parking lots were packed and the aisles were full at Saturday's gun show inside the Jacksonville Fairgrounds as hundreds shopped for weapons that some fear will soon be banned.
"I think it has to do with Obama wanting to ban guns and cut down on shows and all these different laws," gun enthusiast John Maguhn said. "Eventually, I think he is going to confiscate our guns."
While none of the gun safety proposals and executive orders President Barack Obama announced this week included confiscation of weapons, the discussion of additional gun control measures has drawn record crowds to recent gun shows.
"It's pretty obvious that the gun enthusiast is concerned with what is going to happen to their weapons, so that has generated a lot of interest," vendor Roger Huggins said.
Customers says the increased demand for guns has also brought higher prices.
"A lot of people don't like it, because a month or so ago you got the same gun for $200 or $300 less," Maguhn said. "So we're not too happy about it."
"Some places are raising their prices a little exorbitantly," Huggins said. "Customers are not really happy about that. We have to try to keep our prices competitive."
One one of the much-discussed proposals that was among the president's recommendations would close the "gun-show loophole," but in Florida, all federally-licensed vendors already do background checks on buyers before selling them a firearm, even at gun shows. Gun sales between private owners are currently exempt from background checks.
Most customers on Saturday told Channel 4's Chris Parenteau they don't mind the background checks, but are leery of any additional restrictions on their Second Amendment rights.
This show was scheduled long before dozens of gun-rights organizations declared Saturday as Gun Appreciation Day. Crowds at gun shops and shows have been higher than usual even since the mass shooting at Connecticut's Sandy Hook Elementary School and there was no visible indication that the national event had any impact on the crowd at the fairgrounds.
The Jacksonville gun show is open again from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday. Admission is $8, but parking is free.


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Praise and positive reinforcement are effective methods of behavior management. When participants receive positive, non-violent, and understanding indicators, they develop good self-esteem, problem solving skills, and self-discipline. This Program/Camp will practice the following Discipline and Behavior Management Policy:
In order for a participant to feel secure and cared for, certain guidelines need to be set and action taken if the participant steps out of these boundaries. A standard discipline procedure has been established so that all participants will be treated fairly. If a participant consistently disrupts a group or causes trouble that affects his/her safety or that of other participants, the following procedures will be followed:
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Kids who don't have parents who fish or money to buy equipment can check out a rod, reel and tackle to give "America's Sport" a try. Zebco 33 classic rods and reels will be provided for check out. Parents must fill out a registration form at the Recreation Office in Campbell House or Douglass Community Center during office hours.
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A. All recreation ordinances, rules, and regulations pertaining to citizens and participants will be published in the local papers annually. They shall also be given out to all participants in organized activities or programs sponsored by the town Recreation and Parks Department for one year. From the date of adoption they will be available at the town administration buildings, police station, and Recreation and Parks Department. All citizens or participants that are confronted with a recreation and parks ordinance violation charge shall be issued by hand or mailed all ordinance pertaining to the recreation and parks facilities.
B. The Recreation & Parks Department staff, Fire Department and town administrators shall have the authority to aid the Police Department in informing citizens and supervising facilities in accordance with all ordinances pertaining to recreation and parks.


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Are there any strategies/routes that one can take for a Single-Segment Marathon speedrun .
Or if one has already been done ?
I already know of the Ingue Ferroque skip , and a few tricks on Fire! Fire! Fire! Fire! , as well as a quicker route through Bigger Guns Nearby .


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What we read while our goals were mysteriously disallowed…
- BP's first smart move in the wake of its massive oil spill may have been lessening Tony Hayward's role in the spill response. He had become one walking gaffe since the disaster–he probably doesn't have a role in Damon Lidelof's (fake) movie about the spill.
- As if we needed another reason to hate the World Cup, it is apparently distracting Billy Beane, who has become such a soccer fan that he almost missed Dallas Braden's perfect game last month. Joe Posnanski is called it "the day Moneyball died," which John S predicted last summer. That's not the only way the World Cup is invading Major League Baseball, as seen at Sun Life Stadium on Saturday. Of course, we'd probably watch more of the matches if they looked like this live.
- Philadelphia Magazine (hey, we embarked beyond NYC!) tries to answer the question that has been bugging a lot of people who saw this or read this (what is a douche juice anyway?): Why is Buzz Bissinger so mad all the time? (We do find his absolute trashing of LeBron, with whom he just wrote a book, pretty fascinating. And in the interest of equal time, Deadspin's series with Tim Donaghy analyzing the officiating of the NBA Finals was compelling, as well.)
- Our pals at Dead Homer Society are busy reviewing the ninth season of The Simpsons, which is when, in their words, "the show started becoming more Zombie than Simpsons." Here's their take on "The Cartridge Family"–an episode every Simpsons fan we know has recently watched for its brilliant opening send-up of soccer. "Oh, I'll kill myself if Portugal doesn't win…".
- Our favorite retrospectives on two fallen sports figures: Posnanski on John Wooden and Sam Mellinger's premature eulogy for Manute Bol. That both work(ed) at the Kansas City Star may or may not be coincidental.
- We at NPI aren't fans of this "fail" meme (we like grammar, remember?), but here are the 50 biggest hip-hop "fails" of all-time.
- Michael Ian Black defends selling out on Twitter. Amanda Rykoff attacks #ff (Follow Friday for the uninitiated).
- Psh…we're pretty sure we can lose Monopoly in fewer than 21 seconds.


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Sketch released of suspect in Franklin Twp. home invasion
Homeowner fired shot at, possibly wounded robber
Sheriff's deputies have released a sketch of a man wanted in a home invasion robbery in Franklin Township.
Deputies said two men forced their way into a home Nov. 3 in the 8100 block of Madison Road and demanded money.
The homeowner's wife and daughter attempted to call 911 during the robbery, and a struggle ensued with one of the robbers.
The homeowner was able to get a pistol and fired a shot at one of the men, possibly wounding him.
Deputies said at least one of the robbers was armed, but they fled without shooting any of the victims.
The robbers were described as white men in their 30s. One of them was about 5 feet 8 inches tall with brown hair and facial hair, and the other was described as 5 feet 6 inches tall with a thick mustache.
The sketch was drawn based on the first robber's description.


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Praise for James McClure:
"The pace is fast, the solution ingenious. Above all, however, is the author's extraordinary naturalistic style. He is that rarity—a sensitive writer who can carry his point without forcing."
—The New York Times Book Review
"More than a good mystery story, which it is, The Steam Pig is also a revealing picture of the hate and sickness of the apartheid society of South Africa."
—Washington Post
"So artfully conceived as to engender cheers…. A memorable mystery."
—Los Angeles Times
"This well-plotted, well-written murder mystery is exceptional … sometimes grim, sometimes sourly comic, always shocking."
—The Atlantic
"Probably one of the best police procedurals published so far in 2012."
—Mystery Tribune
"Soho completes its reprinting of one of the finest police series to begin in the 1970s, James McClure's eight books about Tromp Kramer and Mickey Zondi, a South African biracial detective team in the days of Apartheid."
—Ellery Queen Mystery Magazine


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Fix to estate tax eases farmers' worries
Heirs could have faced huge rise in levies.
Frio County farmer Jack Chiodo has spent the decades since his World War II service building up his 5,000-acre enterprise — a key source of peanut seed for an international producer.
At 91, he has focused on the steps required to keep the farm in the family.
So like growers across America, Chiodo found relief in the estate tax provisions tucked into the so-called fiscal cliff bill that passed Congress on New Year's Day and was signed Thursday by President Barack Obama.
Inaction on the so-called death tax provisions would have adjusted the estate tax to 55 percent for inheritances valued at more than $1 million.
With the Eagle Ford Shale boom spiking land values across South Texas, and combines and other agricultural equipment valued upward of $200,000 apiece, it doesn't take much for even small farms in the region to be valued on paper at more than $1 million.
"It concerned us, and we were anticipating the worst-case scenario," said Leesa L. Barton, Chiodo's daughter and business partner. "You don't really inherit the farm, you inherit a bunch of taxes. ... The heirs lose the farm to pay the taxes. And that's one more family farm that goes out of business."
The fix makes permanent an inflation-indexed $5.2 million exemption per spouse, or about $10 million per couple. Should one spouse die, part of the exemption can be transferred, for a total exemption of $7 million.
The tax rate imposed afterward is still a sizable 40 percent, up from 35 percent last year, but the change at least allows for planning, said Jim Sartwelle, public policy director for the Texas Farm Bureau.
"It ends uncertainty," he said. "It's very unfair to have those folks start to try to figure out how to spend a lot of money with an accountant or a lawyer to help with estate planning and then, boom, after two years the patch goes away, and then they're operating under a completely different set of rules."
Texas is the nation's leading cattle producer, but the majority of ranchers are raising fewer than 100 head on land that's worth a whole lot more than when their ancestors acquired it.
"There's a lot of just mom-and-pop ranchers out there. Their land ... their assets, their estate, essentially, are worth more than a million bucks," said Carmen Fenton of the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association. "They don't have the cash; they don't have lawyers, accountants; they can't afford to pay to kind of set their estate up so they won't be taxed. Basically, their heirs had to sell off the ranch, or at least a part of it, just to keep it."
Conditions are so dire that even large ranch owners are taking drastic measures.
Frank Yturria, an heir to the 150,000-acre Yturria Ranch in deep South Texas, sold off his cattle months ago.
Mega-ranches such as his have taken creative measures to keep holdings together, such as establishing wildlife easements that depress the value of the land by prohibiting development and other uses of it.
It's provided some of the last undeveloped habitat for native animals and the nearly extinct U.S. population of ocelots. But Yturria, even with his commitment to wildlife, hates feeling that he was compelled into it.
"You can own the land, but you can't do anything with it," he said. "It's a shame that they have to force you to do these things."
The estate tax dates back to 1916 and became a funding source for World War I. In 2001, during the administration of then-President George W. Bush, Congress passed a 10-year bill offering relief in the form of exemptions, which adjusted upward in ensuing years to 2010. Congress extended the exemptions that year, but the extensions expired at the end of last year.
A week ago, the nation's attention was on the eleventh-hour rush to avoid a fiscal free fall, which overshadowed the agricultural world's fretting over the failure to negotiate a new five-year farm bill. The highly publicized threat of the "dairy cliff," increasing milk prices to $6 or $7 per gallon, helped force action to extend the 2008 farm bill until Sept. 30.
Neither side of the political aisle is dancing about what's only a postponed debate on a new five-year bill, but there's wide agreement the extension is better than no action at all.
"The bottom line on this is (House) Speaker (John) Boehner never allowed us to put this up for a vote," said U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, a member of the House Agriculture Committee.
"We wanted five years, we did not want an extension on it," he said. "It's not an ideal bill, but it allows the agricultural producers to have at least a short sort of certainty."
Cuellar and others on the committee say they hope to start working on a revised farm bill before the first seeds go in the ground, which in southern parts of Texas means February. But House Agriculture Committee Chairman Frank Lucas, R-Okla., already has signaled that working out the spending side of the fiscal cliff will push any work on the farm bill to, at the earliest, late February.
"This legislation is only one step in the process of solving Washington's spending problem," he said in a news release. "Now it's time for the president to work with Congress to address our $16 trillion debt and find responsible, common-sense ways to cut spending and grow our economy."
National Farmers Union President Roger Johnson said in a news release that the inaction on a five-year farm bill "left rural America out in the cold" by failing to address issues including environmental initiatives and direct payments, controversial subsidies paid to cotton and grain farmers.
"It is truly a shame that the bipartisan work of both the Senate and House agriculture committees has been summarily and entirely discarded," he said.
Texas Farm Bureau spokesman Gene Hall said the estate tax provisions were the silver lining in the rushed farm bill vote that at least kept the status quo on items, including crop insurance, that are vital to farmers and ranchers.


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Not an abandoned blog
Due to other demands on my time and energy right now, I'm not able to continue writing the well-researched, quality "Tree Notes" that I want to post.
However, I have not abandoned this blog! When my life settles down, I will be ready to think and write about trees again.
You can visit archived articles by scrolling down on this page and clicking on any topic that interests you.
Please consider subscribing to "Tree Notes" (if you have not already done so), so you'll automatically receive the new posts when I begin writing again.
Thanks for stopping by. I hope you'll enjoy your visit here.


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A call-in advice show with Beaver & Cleaver, that covers all different ranges of topics that allows the caller to receive suggestions to their ailments that will allow them to either...Take it...or...Leave it!
Call (435)259-5968 to Take it...or...Leave it! Today! ****Advice only given during time of show...calling outside of show hours will result in non-existent advice****


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Item #1087
Biennial. Charming large clusters of edible, double flowers in a myriad of colors, and one of the longest lasting cut flowers available! In the garden, butterflies and bees love the sweet and spicy scented flowers. As a biennial, Sweet William forms a lovely plant the first year, then flowers the second. In mild climates, plants may return the following year. However, for the best flower production, we recommend reseeding every year so you'll be sure to always have flowering plants. If flowers are left on the plant, it will reseed readily, and is always a welcome garden guest. Biennial in USDA zones 3-9.
Seedling Image
Full sun to part shade
Blooms late spring
12"-20" tall
Days to Emerge:
Seed Depth:
Seed Spacing:
When to sow outside: 1 to 2 weeks after average last frost. Sow up until early summer for bloom the following year. Optimal soil temperature for germination is 68°-72°F.
When to start inside: 8 to 10 weeks before average last frost.
Special germination instructions: Optimum germination temperature is 68° - 72°F. Keep soil moist but not soggy.
Artist: Donna Clement
Item #1087
0.75 grams
These are some simple techniques you can use to extend the life of your cut flowers from days, to over a week.
1) In the morning or early evening,…More…


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Howard has not received any gifts yet
Thats cool, send me a msg when you're in the area. A few weeks should give me enough time to get somewhat up to speed at least.
Hi, I don't exactly have a vehicle that I can afford to be going back and forth from there to here. If you're fine with playing over here a couple of times, then I could possibly play over there sometimes too.
I go to classes now so my time is completely filled up during the mornings from Monday-Saturday. I could play around 3 P.M. on certain days and earlier on others. Let me know what your schedule looks like.
© 2020 Created by Mark / The Mayor. Powered by


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Food sets, Delivery of flowers and gifts
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Blue Chip: Stevens Alumnus Michael Polcari
The semiconductor industry is collectively worth a staggering $300 billion or more worldwide, and is undergoing continual change and consolidation.
It's a good thing Michael Polcari is there to help inform and guide that industry.
Polcari, who grew up in Union City, N.J., began his path to the top with a bachelor's in physics from the University of Notre Dame, then moved back east to complete both master's (1972) and doctoral degrees (1977) in physics from Stevens.
"Stevens was a terrific experience," he remembers. "Learning to work independently and getting a strong science education as a grad student went a Polcari's career took him to IBM, where he eventually became director of the Advanced Semiconductor Technology Laboratory at IBM's famed T.J. Watson Research Center during a period of explosive growth for the industry. Later, Polcari would be appointed Vice President of Procurement Engineering for IBM's Global Procurement division.
He always found himself at the leading edge of semiconductor research and manufacturing. That's why, in 2003, he left IBM to join SEMATECH, a not-for-profit consortium of the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers based in Albany. SEMATECH provides ongoing research and development support to its members.
After six years as CEO leading day-to-day operations, Polcari stepped aside in 2009 and became chairman of the group's board, where he now advises SEMATECH on long-term strategy.
Polcari began contributing to Stevens in 2012 after a visit to campus and a meeting with President Nariman Farvardin. He became convinced the time was right to support Stevens.
"I feel that it's always good to be supporting the next generation of technologists,"
Polcari says. "As the technology becomes ever more complex, there will be tremendous technical challenges in our industry to keep us interested going forward. Stevens is certainly a place that has trained quite a lot of people for the tech industry, and I am sure that will continue.
"I am pleased to see it."


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As you may remember we posted a Little Boy's Tie around Easter and it got a great response. Many of you were interested in making a larger version and what better occasion to do so than Father's Day which is on June 21st this year!
When I was growing up my dad wore a tie almost every day. But not the kind of ties you might expect. As an example; he had one, handmade by my mom, with flying eyeballs embroidered all over it. So when we decided to do a man's tie for Father's Day I knew I had to make it special, and not boring for my dad.
Liberty of London Tana Lawn seemed like the perfect fabric for the job. In addition to all of its amazing prints the Tana Lawn has a silk like feel that is perfect for a tie. But when I went to pick out the prints to use I couldn't decide which ones seemed manly but not dull so I enlisted my dad's help. He helped to pick out the three prints.
I think the end product is a perfect Father's Day present. It's so easy and fun to make that you might find yourself making one for all the men in your life, and then maybe making one for yourself. This is also a great present for recent grads who might need a tie for job hunting. And it could certainly come in handy if you're planning a wedding as well.
Perhaps, now that I've mastered the basic shape, I will embroider some flying eyeballs on them but that might be a bit much? Happy Father's Day!– Molly
The Materials
To make one 55 1/2-inch long by 3-inch wide (at it's widest point) tie. (You could actually make two if you cut carefully. If you're planning on making more than two there is no need to get more interfacing- the amount of interfacing should suffice for at least four ties.):
- 3/4-yard Liberty of London Tana Lawn
- 1/4-yard Quilters Muslin in White
- 1 1/2-yards Heavyweight Sew-in Interfacing
- 1 yard light weight fusible interfacing
- 100% cotton thread to match the Tana Lawn
- One Father's Day Tie pattern, available free here, printed out and assembled. (This is a corrected version of this pattern. If you downloaded the pattern before April 6th, 2011 you have an older version, so please download it again.)
Please note that this tie is slightly shorter than a standard 57-inch long tie. To make it longer you can add the desired additional length between the M1 and M2 neck pieces, and the Interfacing pieces #14 and #15 before you tape the pattern together.
Cut out the Front, Back and Middle Pieces on the bias. Below is an easy, fool proof method of cutting on the bias (but please keep in mind that your pattern shape will be slightly different than the one in the pictures below.)
Cut the 27-inch x 54-inch piece of Tana Lawn in half length-wise to create two 27-inch squares.
Take one of these squares and fold it in half diagonally as shown above and press it. This diagonal line is the bias fold.
Pin the pattern piece down to the fabric matching the side of the pattern that says "fold" to the fold of the fabric. Cut out your piece.
After you have cut out your front, middle and back pieces unfold them. The front and middle pieces will have two points, like an M shape on one end, while the middle piece will have this M shape at both ends.
You will need to cut these points in a specific way. Start with the front piece. Place it right side facing up. You will be cutting off the right hand point. Place a ruler along the inside edge of the left hand point and across the right side of the piece, extending the angle of the left point, as shown above.
Cut off the right hand point along this angle. You will have a roughly 45-degree angled edge that points to the left.
In this same manner cut the other two pieces with the following orientations. (It is very important that the points face in the correct direction.):
- For the middle piece cut the first end with the point facing to the left. Then rotate the piece 180-degrees and cut the other end so the point is pointing to the right. You will end up with a trapezoid shape as pictured above on the far left.
- For the end piece cut the M shaped end so the point is pointing to the right as pictured above on the far right.
Then cut out the Tie Interfacing piece from the heavy sew in interfacing and the front and back lining pieces from the muslin. All together here are the piece you will have:
- 1- Tana Lawn Tie Front
- 1- Tana Lawn Tie Middle
- 1- Tana Lawn Tie End
- 1- Tie Interfacing Piece
- 1- Front Tie Lining
- 1- Back Tie Lining
Sewing the Front, Middle and Back
Iron the middle crease out of the front back and middle pieces. Place them wrong side up and close together, but not overlapping, on the ironing board. Lay the light weight fusible interfacing right side up (fusible side down) on top of the pieces. Set your iron to the synthetic setting and iron the interfacing to the fabric. You will probably iron the interfacing on to your ironing board too at this point but it's easy to peel it off and you can use a press cloth if you're worried about damaging your ironing board cover.
Cut the interfacing around the front, middle, and back pieces. The pieces will now be much stiffer.
Using a water soluble pen or a regular pencil draw a line 1/4-inch in from each of the angled edges of all three pieces. Mark it on both the front of the piece and the back. Orient your pieces as shown above: the front piece at the bottom, the middle piece with its points facing to the right and the back piece at the top with its point facing down and to the left.
With the right sides together match up the marked lines ad pin the pieces together as shown above. This marked line will be your sew line.
Sew across both marked lines and then press the tie flat. You can trim the edges a bit if it didn't line up perfectly.
Adding the Front and Back Lining
Iron the tie and both lining pieces in half lengthwise to get a crease. This will help to line everything up properly.
From the Front Tie Lining, fold the bottom tip up 1/4-inch and press it.
Fold the bottom sides of the lining in 1/4-inch each and press them into place. This will form a neat point at the bottom angle of the lining.
Repeat this step for the Back Lining.
Fold the bottom edges of the Front tie in 1/4 and press them into place.
Fold the tip up 1/4-inch press it, and then fold in the sides to a neat point and press it again, as you did above with the lining pieces.
Repeat this step for the back of the tie.
Place the Front Lining on top of the Front Tie end, wrong sides together. Make sure that the lining is contained within the borders of the end of the tie as shown above. It should be a little bit smaller than the tie end.
Pin the Lining in place
Sew the folded edges of the lining onto the tie end with a slip stitch. Sew only through the folded layer of the Tana Lawn and interfacing- Do not sew though to the front of the tie. This is very similar to sewing on the binding of a quilt.
Please click here if you need a more in depth explanation of slip stitch.
It's not necessary to sew the top of the lining, it will get enclosed within in the shaping of the tie.
Repeat the same steps to sew on the Back Lining.
Shaping the Tie
Fold in edges of the long sides 1/4-inch and press into place.
Fold again 1/4-inch and press.
Fold both edges in so they meet at the crease in the center of the tie and press.
Open up the sides and slip your interfacing in as pictured above. It should fit snugly inside the tie. You may have to trim it slightly to get it to fit.
Now it's time to close up the tie. Refold the edges, press them again and pin into place.
Sew Tie
The inside seam of your tie will be sewn by hand.
Please Note: I used red thread for the following steps, but only so the technique would be more visible. At home you should use thread that matches your fabric.
Tack the point where the two edges meet a few times before you start your seam.
The tie is sewn up with a different type of slip stitch than was used for sewing the lining:
- Start from the tack run your needle through the fold on the left side and come out about 1/2-inch above.
- Insert your needle directly across from where you came out into the right side and slide it up though the fold for a 1/2-inch.
- Then enter the left side directly across from where you exited the right side.
- Repeat
Once you do this a few times you will have a little ladder of stitches as shown above.
- Pull the stitches taut and they will almost disappear.
- When you get to the end of your length of thread take a couple of tacking stitches but this time sew though the interfacing as well, while making sure not to sew though to the front of the tie, which will hold the interfacing in place.
Sew the entire inside seam of the tie in this way.
Once you're done, press the tie thoroughly to get rid of the middle seam and you'll be finished! Enjoy! –Molly
Update on June 19, 2009
Please note: We have revised the tie pattern template a bit. The new pattern is available for download, for free, here as well as in the "Materials" section above. If you downloaded the pattern before April 6, 2011 should re-download the new version. Thanks so much for all your comments- they've really helped us improve the pattern!– Molly


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