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Beat the Streak Report: Weekend, April 29-May 1
Thursday was another step in the right direction here in Streakland, as your top six selections each hit paydirt
Dustin Pedroia and Alex Rodriguez led the way, lighting the lamp a combined three times in nine at-bats and pushing 23.1 percent of all Streakers one day closer to $5.6 million in the process.
Leader Cleopatravijal's was not among the chosen few, however, as her season-best 25-game pyramid came crumbling down thanks to an Alex Gordon 0-for-4.
Our new leader, heading into the weekend with hits in his last 24 games: Andre Ethier.
Friday's picks:
(Make a BTS pick)
Oh, hello there …
• Albert Pujols: .471 AVG (8-for-17) since '06 vs. Braves starter Tim Hudson
• Ryan Howard: .406 AVG (13-for-22) since '06 vs. Mets starter Mike Pelfrey
• Shin-Soo Choo: .556 AVG (5-for-9) since '06 vs. Tigers starter Max Scherzer
Feeling kinda spicy?
• Bill Hall: .700 AVG (7-for-10) since '06 vs. Brewers starter Shaun Marcum
You'll thank me later …
• Adam Jones: .067 AVG (1-for-15) since '06 vs. White Sox starter John Danks
• Andre Ethier: .077 AVG (1-for-13) since '06 vs. Padres starter Clayton Richard
Saturday's picks:
(Make a BTS pick)
Oh, hello there …
• Howard Kendrick: .600 AVG (9-for-15) since '06 vs. Rays starter James Shields
• Troy Tulowitzki: .556 AVG (10-for-18) since '06 vs. Pirates starter Paul Maholm
• Jose Reyes: .455 AVG (10-for-22) since '06 vs. Phillies starter Roy Halladay
Feeling kinda spicy?
• Felipe Lopez: .389 AVG (7-for-18) since '06 vs. Angels starter Joel Pineiro
You'll thank me later …
• Jayson Werth: .000 AVG (0-for-12) since '06 vs. Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez
• Billy Butler: .000 AVG (0-for-9) since '06 vs. Twins starter Brian Duensing
Sunday's picks:
(Make a BTS pick)
Oh, hello there …
• Matt Holliday: .531 AVG (17-for-32) since '06 vs. Braves starter Derek Lowe
• Adrian Beltre: .538 AVG (7-for-13) since '06 vs. A's starter Gio Gonzalez
• Billy Butler: .438 AVG (14-for-32) since '06 vs. Twins starter Carl Pavano
Feeling kinda spicy?
• Felix Pie: .556 AVG (5-for-9) since '06 vs. White Sox starter Gavin Floyd
You'll thank me later …
• Denard Span: .158 AVG (3-for-19) since '06 vs. Royals starter Luke Hochevar
• Jacoby Ellsbury: .100 AVG (1-for-10) since '06 vs. Mariners starter Felix Hernandez
Leaderboard time!
Andre Ethier fun fact: Ethier's teammates at Arizona State included Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia.
Top MLB streakers
Andre Ethier: 24 games
Jeff Francoeur: 17 games
Johnny Damon: 16 games
133 Comments
I had trouble making Friday's pick — because there is a wealth of great choices. It's a nice problem to have. I ended up letting Fukudome ride for another night.
Likewise. GL all.
taking jose reyes here. i felt taking a hot hitter against a unproven pitcher seemed like a safe choice but he will probably end up throwing a no hitter somehow.
So far not good, but his pitch count is getting up there and he should be coming out shortly. It's just a matter if Reyes can hit their relief pitchers. Btw, I picked him too.
Going with Ike Davis of the Mets today. He is hitting the ball really well (11 hits in his last 5 games) and is on a 10 game hitting streak. I know he is facing someone he's hasn't seen before and usually that is not good to pick someone in that situation but I feel he is too hot right now not to get a hit. We'll see though.
Boy did you get lucky!
Going with Big-Z (Zambrano) at Arizona today. Why not, I'm at zero. What do I have to lose? Ugh, can't pick pitchers; yes that was a joke. Hmmm, I like Polanco at only 2 for 13 against Pelfrey. I don't put a lot of stock in those stats and need to put my new algorithm to a test.
I'm going with Ryan Howard to get to 5. He's 9 for 24 (.643) in his last 6 games and 13 for 32 (.406) against Pelfrey.
You must have punched the wrong numbers in.
9 for 24 is .375, not .643!
Oh, I guess you meant 9 for 14.
I know a lot of people don't like telling their strategy for making picks but for anyone that is willing to give a hint I'd like to hear some of the different strategies.
I myself have decided to try only taking people who are on a 6 game hitting streak or more and since starting that I've had a 6 game streak of my own. I just feel it's better to take someone who is hot over someone who has good numbers against a certain pitcher.
Sounds solid enough, but all steaks come to an end at some point. No strategy is going to be perfect otherwise we'd have new millionaires each year — I wish. I won't go into too much detail since I'm still developing it. But basically I look at a fixed number of players and weight their last 3 games against the last 3 games of their opposing pitchers. I do factor in R/L averages, some other factors, and past history vs each other (weighted pretty low). I then pick the best "on paper". That would have worked ok for me these past 4 games except I made a hasty last second pick from my primary pick based on loose information which I regret now. The first 3 games, 1st AB hits, each multi-base hits. Last night would have been a 2 hit game if I didn't change. Part of any strategy I guess is trusting it; still working on that which is why I'm staying with Polanco tonight though his history vs Pelfrey is sub-Mendoza
i do look at other factors as well… like who is the opposing pitcher, R/L avgs and then take who seems like the best pick but they need to be hitting well before I even begin to consider them.
I used a strategy similar to yours last year and got to 20 with it. I didn't limit it to streakers but relied heavily on hit count for past week, opposing pitcher quality + other stuff. It worked really well until after the All-Star break when I no longer had 7 consecutive days of data to crunch. This year I want to limit my focus and try something new and have been for the past few games. The 1st 3 weeks was pretty much pick & hope but that's gotta stop
well its always tough to use a specific strategy for the first couple weeks but now we can finally tell who is actually producing and who isnt so its much easier to go with a specific strategy
I try to pick someone with awesome L/R splits, and for the most part i take guys that bat 1,2 or 3 from visiting teams to maximize at-bats. I started last season with a 17 streak but havent got past 12 since.
At the All-Star break, just take the last 7 days before the All-Star break.
Geez. It's like the twilight zone here. I can't get out of this section of the blog. Giving a page reload a try to break out.
Per rotoworld, notable hitters out of Friday's lineup & potential pinch hitters: J.Loney(LAD), M.Izturis(LAA), A.Rios(CWS), T.Hafner(CLE), C.Crawford(BOS), R.Theriot(STL), C.Crisp(OAK) game-time decision
WTF. page 1 streak 21. ????? 7pm lock time today? No excuse whatsoever for highest no selection.
LaV's List
Friday's Top Picks of the current Top2500,
127 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Joey Votto 321 12.84 (3rd)
Travis Hafner 237 9.48
Ryan Howard 190 7.6
Kosuke Fukudome 174 6.96 (my pick)
Matt Kemp 153 6.12
Lance Berkman 151 6.04
Miguel Cabrera 128 5.12 (3rd)FINALLY MAKING A PICK AGAIN
Shane Victorino 86 3.44
Placido Polanco 71 2.84 (3rd)
Andre Ethier 69 2.76 (1rst)
Ryan Braun 63 2.52
Ichiro Suzuki 49 1.96
Albert Pujols 45 1.8
Troy Tulowitzki 42 1.68
Dustin Pedroia 41 1.64 (3rd)
Brennan Boesch 21 0.84 (1rst)
Highest "No Selection" 😛 pg# 1 with streak of 21 back to zero. WTF No excuse for this, with 7pm lock time.
Yesterday's Top2500 Reset rate was 18.48% with ALEX GORDON reseting the most.
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
Y Escobar TOR, SAVED 2, highest 15 gamer
J Lowrie BOS, SAVED 5, highest 11 gamer (came on def in 8th, ab in 9th)
A Kearns CLE, RESET 2, highest was 12 gamer (came on def in 7th, ab in 8th)
D Barney CHC, RESET 5, highest was 16 gamer
M Downs HOU(1), PH in 9TH, BB
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
ab0v3_7h3_r3s7, 20, pg 1, 12, PLACIDO POLANCO (PICKED 71X) formally known as 'www.jew
Jagx, 15, pg 8, 187, MIGGY (PICKED 128X)
levinc, 12, pg , 542, KOSUKE FUKUDOME (PICKED 174X)
J_St33z, 9, pg , 1992, GRADY SIZEMORE(PICKED 11X)
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
backrubs RESET BY Alex Gordon
GL to all
Well, as high as Travis Hafner was picked, I sure hope he does come in and pinch hit. A little excitement is good 😉
LOL agreed.
Also if you'll notice "gottaweartheshades" finally picked again, and Miggy homered already so he moves on.
you can definitely say that his "wait until a pick I really like" strategy is working. eventhough he lost his lead he got it back and is again one day closer to the 57
I am not so sure that is his strategy, because what are the chances of him finding a pick he really liked every day for the 1st 3 weeks and then finding nothing for the next 10 days?
Hafner is injured so I doubt if he even plays tonight.
Apr 29 Hafner is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Tigers, according to the Indians' official Twitter page.
Recommendation: Hafner was set to undergo an MRI Friday to determine the extent of his ankle injury; but even though the results are still pending, he will be held out of the lineup Friday. Shelley Duncan will serve as the DH in Hafner's place.
If I ever get to the 40s I'll give it a shot. And if that does really happen there's going to be a lot of bloggers venting 😉
Last post meant for schenk and 00Liber. Guess I forgot to click 'reply'
i agree. if i ever got to 40 i would keep taking guys out of the lineup until i found someone i liked. i do understand why the leader is doing that right now. if your in the lead then why not play it safe
well he is no longer in the lead though.
Ryan Howard homers! On to 5! 🙂
I look for opposing batting avg of at least 300 and match a hitter hitting at least 300. I consider the match-ups, but generally don't pick the best hitter against that pitcher, as I figure he'll be suseptible to walks. I definitely look for L/R match-ups. And I try to check the morning of to see if my guy is healthy and slated to play, but I don't always get to it. This is working decently (high streak of 7, back to 6 now). My dad, who is a stats king, can't get above two!
How many pitchers have a BAA of over .300?
When I read Vinny's write-ups, I always notice the .300 BAA+, because they are so rare.
Agreed. In the early part of the season it is relatively common. But later in season, 250-280 is far more common & 300+ is rare on a day-to-day basis.
and Victorino comes through with a single in the 5th!!
Mark, keep your fingers crossed. If there's gonna be a significant sacrifice this Friday, it will be Kosuke and/or Kemp
Ya, im hoping Kosuke pulls through for me tonight.
Congrats to those already onto tomorrow.
So pending a major comeback by the Mets (doubtful), I get reset by Reyes and start again tomorrow.
(extremely doubtful aka NGH (Not Gonna Happen))
What little chance there was to come up again is gone. Pulled.
I'm going with Ryan Braun since he is 10 for 29 (.345) against Wandy Rodriguez. He is also 21 for 54 (.389) in his last 13 games, hitting safely in 12 out of 13.
The Highest no selection is on page 6 with a streak of 17, that streak will return to 0.
LaV's List
Saturday's Top Picks of the current Top2500,
123 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Troy Tulowitzki 682 27.28
Ryan Braun 307 12.28 (3rd)
Ichiro Suzuki 197 7.88
Placido Polanco 170 6.8 (MY PICK)
Andre Ethier 136 5.44 (1rst)
Howard Kendrick 87 3.48
Brian McCann 61 2.44 (1rst)
Matt Kemp 57 2.28
Miguel Cabrera 54 2.16
Joey Votto 41 1.64
No Selection 35 1.4
Michael Young 34 1.36
Billy Butler 33 1.32
Adrian Beltre 4 0.16 (3rd)
Logan Morrison 1 0.04 (3RD)(DL) Right back to staying put
Highest "No Selection" 😛 pg# 6 with streak of 17 back to zero.
Yesterday's Top2500 Reset rate was 18.32% with FUKUDOME reseting the most.
There was also 11.72% PPD due to players not playing, These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
E Chavez NYY, RESET 1, WAS 12 gamer
R Spilborghs COL, RESET 1, was 9 gamer
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
ab0v3_7h3_r3s7, 21, pg 1, 9, RYAN BRAUN (PICKED 307X) formally known as 'www.jew
Jagx, 16, pg 7, 147, RYAN BRAUN (PICKED 307X)
J_St33z, 10, pg 65, 1541, TULO (PICKED 682X)
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
levinc RESET BY KOSUKE FUKUDOME
GL to all
grrr…WHY is Berkman not in the starting lineup?
Rotoworld did not mention anything!
FYI: Gotta watch Berkman if you pick him for a day game after night game. You'll see this with other aging hitters also. Too bad you didn't catch the lineups before the games locked
Does he get the full day off or is he going to pinch-hit?
He's on the bench, available to pinch hit
With Cards losing in time running out, I think you'll see Berkman pinch hitting. LaRussa does not normally take a loss without expending all of his ammo.
Right on cue. He'll probably stay in as RF & with game tied going to end of 8th, may have a chance to bat again.
Hmmm, Miggy intentionally walked in the 1st inning! Definitely gives you the manager's strategy: Don't let Miggy beat you. May want to think twice about picking him during their series.
Wow. How did that get posted here? Sometimes I forget to hit reply, but this time I know I didn't hit reply. Oh well, so be it
Miggy send a giant F U to the indians by hitting a long ball with his 2nd ab, then gets the free pass again on 3rd.
The COL/PIT game about to start. BTS gods have been merciful today. If a major sacrifice is to happen tonight it will be Tulo and/or MLB's best streaker this year so far: Ethier.
A side note: There were 36 on first page with 20 gamers or more before games started today. 1 sat idle and all but 13 others have moved on. Of those 13: 6 chose Ethier, 3 for Tulo, 1 for Kemp, 1 for Fowler, 1 for Cuddyear, 1 for S.Castro
Ignore previous post. Finally figured out how to get out of this reply section & posted below. Feels like I was lost in a maze 🙂
And Polanco is good. GRRRR!! Why do i always get the first ab hits when I have no streak going.
Not much pressure? Not much 2nd guessing? 🙂
Ya I guess so
I'm going to keep track of number of game days in which the Top 15 most selected players have excellent success and there is little or no resets among the top 15.
Ultimate success game-days (USGD): On an USGD, all 15 selections get hits or 14 out of 15 get hits and the 1 who doesn't is a pause.
Semi Ultimate success days (SUSGD): On a SUSGD all 15 of the most selected players either get hits or pause. At least 2 of these would be pause picks or otherwise that would be an USGD.
Super success game-days (SSGD): On a SSGD at least 12 of the top 15 most selected picks must get a hit or pause. If there are only 1, 2 or 3 O fers in the Top 15, that makes for a SSGD.
Why does 27% of all pickers have Tulo?
He isn't even hitting that well, it is a lefty-lefty matchup, Maholm is a decent pitcher, the Rockies are home, it is a night game, and Maholm is really tough on lefties?
That makes no freaking sense.
Simply: 556 AVG past history vs Maholm & PIT is floundering. Personally, I'd like to see him be sacrificed to the BTS gods today.
Tulo bats right handed not left handed. It makes for a good match-up. Tulo hits lefties really well.
Good point. Think Champ88 was confusing CarGo with Tulo.
Though Tulo's numbers have not been good past few games & yes he does hit lefties better — lifetime numbers
Yeah, but I mean PIT is ALWAYS floundering, .556 isn't THAT impressive, and 27% is an absurdly intense concentration in one player.
If he does go 0-fer, it reduces a big chunk of the leaders in on e fell swoop. But 556 is impressive I think. He should see the pitcher 3 times & by the numbers that means at least 1 hit. Throw in the human factor and all bets are off 😉
When I say impressive, it's based of 18 ABs. If it was less than 10 ABs then the numbers are far less impressive. 18 ABs translates to about 5 games and an avg like that over 5 games means he sees the pitches well. But we've seen situations like this before where the hitter goes 0-fer because of walks, sac and 1 or 2 ABs only
I must have to say that USGDs and SUSGDs are very rare.
This season so far through 30 game days:
USGDs: 0
SUSGDs: 0
SSGDs: 10 (4/1, 4/6, 4/11, 4/15, 4/18, 4/21, 4/24, 4/26, 4/27, 4/28, 4/29)
Since all 10 of the SSGDs have had 2 or 3 O fers there will be a couple of rule adjustments that will not affect the results that have occurred within the 1st 30 game-days.
USGDs The rules for USGDs will not change.
SUSGDs On a SUSGDs at least 14 of the top 15 most selected players must get a hit or pause. A SUSGD will occur on any game day that there is just 1 O fer at most and/or at least 2 pauses with all the other selections in the top 15 getting hits.
SSGDs On a SSGD 12 or 13 of the top 15 most selected picks must get a hit or pause. If there are exactly 2 or 3 O fers in the Top 15, that makes for a SSGD.
Lol. Yanks you're gonna spend as much time tracking everything ad I do.
1st inning double by Braun! Onto 6!
The COL/PIT game about to start. BTS gods have been merciful today. If a major sacrifice is to happen tonight it will be Tulo and/or MLB's best streaker this year so far: Ethier.
A side note: There were 36 on first page with 20 gamers or more before games started today. 1 sat idle and all but 13 others have moved on. Of those 13: 6 chose Ethier, 3 for Tulo, 1 for Kemp, 1 for Fowler, 1 for Cuddyear, 1 for S.Castro
Check your picks for tomorrow. Jose Tabata removed in 1st inning after going 0-1. Reason not disclosed yet. Too bad for the only Top2500 person that picked him: a 19-gamer.
Interesting. Col moved Helton up to 3 and dropped Cargon to 5. Gotta think if 1rst is open you give Tulo the free pass and pitch to the Slumping Carlos.
Which could suck even more now that Tulo is ib the board with a strikeout.
Coming to light now. COL winning by 3 & @ home. Won't bat in 9th if score holds. Tulo needs 6 more hitters to come to the plate for another AB; 0-fer as of right now!
Tulo is 0-fer. That'll put a dent in the Top2500!
There could be the 1st USGD of the season however but Troy Tulowitzki is currently O fer making the chances of a USGD small. The Dodgers are just getting underway with Andre Eithier and Matt Kemp being the last two picks from the top 15 to start play. If all 3 can get hits it will be a USGD, if 2 get hits and 1 goes O fer this will the 1st SUSGD, if 2 or 3 go O fer this will be the 11th SSGD. Today will definitely be at least a SSGD.
Well there went the USGD, now I'm rooting for a SUSGD.
Ethier and Kemp are off to 0 for 1 starts.
Ethier and Kemp both have hits making for a Semi Ultimate Success Game-day! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
FYI—–>LF Jose Tabata left Saturday's game after his right hamstring tightened while he was running out a first-inning grounder. He is day-to-day.
Per Yahoo Sports.
Anyone know who's really pitching for HOU vs MIL today? MLB shows Wandy Rodriguez as today's pitcher everywhere. He just pitched 8 innings last nite, correct? So who's pitching today?
Think I found it. Norris appears to be moving from Monday to Sunday for HOU
Yahoo shows Norris.
Also MLB shows Norris pitching vs CIN on Monday. That's gonna change. I think they will start their new rookie Aneury Rodriguez
ESPN shows Happ starting tomorrow and today is Norris (Wandy pitched yesterday).
For those that picked Ichiro, wonder if they caught the pitching change from Buchholz to Wakefield? Wonder if they even care?
I'm going with Miguel Cabrera to get to 7. This is the 3rd time I've gotten to 6 within the 1st 31 days. I have failed at 7 both previous times.
The highest no selection is on page 4 with a streak of 18. That streak will be reset to 0.
USGDs: 0
SUSGDs: 1 (4/30)
SSGDs: 10 (4/1, 4/6, 4/11, 4/15, 4/18, 4/21, 4/24, 4/26, 4/27, 4/28, 4/29)
Miguel Cabrera O fer 2 with a walk and now a Hit by Pitch. Now I need extra innings. 😦
And so it continues. Miggy intentionally walked in 1st inning. I'm making a mental note for future CLE/DET series.
Appears if bases are empty or loaded will be the only way CLE will pitch to him. Hard enough to get a hit with 3 or 4 ABs, but if limiting it to 1 or 2 ABs, odds are much poorer. Risk not worth taking IMO. 3 IBB yesterday, 1 so far today.
+ Masterson just beaned him in the 8th.
Jose Bautista just pulled from game, 0-fer
LaV's List
Sunday's Top Picks of the current Top2500,
138 Batters picked overall
Batter, Times Picked, Percentage
Matt Holliday 467 18.68 (3RD)
Andre Ethier 275 11 (1RST)
Ryan Braun 251 10.04 (1RST + MY PICK)
Miguel Cabrera 160 6.4
Jose Bautista 137 5.48
Billy Butler 94 3.76
Stephen Drew 89 3.56
Ichiro Suzuki 80 3.2
Placido Polanco 73 2.92
Joey Votto 69 2.76
Robinson Cano 67 2.68
Alex Rodriguez 48 1.92
Starlin Castro 42 1.68
No Selection 34 1.36
Albert Pujols 32 1.28 (3RD)
Highest "No Selection" 😛 pg# 4 with streak of 18 back to zero.
Yesterday's Top2500 Reset rate was 35.72% with TULO reseting the most.
Got Pinched OR 1 AB Wonders
TOP2500 saved or reset by PHA (going to include any pinch hitters and/or double switch, 1 AB or More)
L Berkman STL, RESET 23, highest were 2, with 18 gamers
J Tabata PIT, RESET 1, was pulled after 1 AB (INJ), was a 19 gamer
R Theriot STL, RESET 1, was 10 gamer
B Wallace HOU (1), PH for pitchers spot in 9th, BB
Bloggers Group Top2500
UserName, Streak, Page#, Rank, Pick
ab0v3_7h3_r3s7, 22, pg 1, 9, RYAN BRAUN (PICKED 251X) formally known as 'www.jew
Jagx, 17, pg 5, 105, JOSE BAUTISTA (PICKED 137X)
dalywalker322, 9, pg 100+, 2427, ICHIRO (PICKED 80X)
sclennin, 9, pg 100+, 2427, MATT HOLLIDAY (PICKED 467X)
Bloggers Reset Yesterday
J_St33z RESET by TULO
GL to all
And if anyone cares… Those with 20-gamers & higher increased by 10 yesterday to 46. Here are their picks
M.Holliday x8
R.Braun x7
J.Bautista x6
A.Ethier x5
Mi.Cabrera x4
R.Cano x2
S.Drew x2
A.Pujols x1
P.Polanco x1
R.Weeks x1
M.Kemp x1
B.Butler x1
C.Gonzalez x1
T.Tulowitski x1
J.Votto x1
S.Castro x1
Ad.Gonzalez x1
J.Upton x1
A.Hill x1
LOL are you bored Keith?
Sorta. I don't recall seeing this many 20-gamers and above a month into the season before. Year of the pitcher? Not this year evidently. And there are 27 19-gamers entering today.
Like over-populated deer, these 20+ gamers need to be culled to stop the population explosion. Unless 27 or more drop today, tomorrow can have over 50 of them.
Hmmm. STL already made a defensive change. No one had Punto but there was one pick with Delcasco.
Come on Indians Tie the Game up but don't take the lead!
I said don't take the lead!
The Tigers now need 2 guys to reach to bring Cabrera up!
Miguel Cabrera singled! Us Cabrera pickers are saved and I got my first last out miracle! 🙂
I got screwed, as usual. I picked Braun when W. Rodriguez was pitching and didn't have a chance to change it due to B. Norris pitching, so I'm back to 0. I'm having no luck whatsoever. I need to find someone that is on an early streak and pick them every day, let's see if that works.
Wandy pitched last nite; no way he was pitching 2 days in a row. Ichiro just got reset today — maybe he'll be your streak starter?
Well I know that now, but when I made the pick it showed him pitching today. I had no time to even look at the game until after it started and wondered "Why is Norris pitching?", only to look around and see there were changes made. Grrrr. Ichiro could be the streak starter for me, but he's burned me in the past more than once and I'm a bit hesitant to pick him.
One of the things I do when I make my picks: write down the pick and the starter. Then each day before game locks or as late as possible, I'll double check and make sure 1) player is still playing if possible and 2) see if the pitcher changed. That is how I knew BOS & HOU changed because I was also looking at Braun & Ichiro. That may help you getting burned in the future for scenarios like this.
Meant: help you from getting burned. Also because I knew I was looking at Braun, I reviewed his game last night & since Wandy was pitching last nite, no way was he pitching today, regardless what MLB put out there. Just FYI
That should have been a reply. And I knew Wandy was pitching last night, somehow my brain didn't start normal operating procedures until it was too late. Oh well, I was only at one anyway.
Thanks, I'll have to remember that.
Not that it helps. But I think Braun was like 500 vs Norris lifetime & has a 13-game hitting streak vs HOU (though that last stat is kinda useless). The only reason I didn't pick Braun was that righties were hitting sub-200 off Norris this year. I thought another pick might be less risky & succeeded. I was soooo tempted to pick Braun because of that average & how hot he's been so far.
Well I had Brian McCann first and changed again like 20 times. A few of my other picks, including McCann, got at least one hit, so it's my own fault for picking someone and then changing it.
Well I learned 2 things today. 1) stop picking against Bud Norris (3rd time he's burned this year already) 2)Cle doesn't like to pitch to Miggy. Thankfully I didn't take him at all this weekend but I know for future matchups.
Norris was so bad last year. What happened over the offseason?
Right?! LOL!
While were talking about Braun, his 0-fer should assist the cull you were asking for.
Oh yeah! And that's one reason I don't feel all that bad about my decision. So many other streaks were up in the 20's and they are back to 0. I was only at 1.
Ya me too. But I don't think 'www.Jew feels quite the same as he saw his 22 disappear.
And speaking of Ethier. If he doesn't go 0-fer tomorrow I think he'll safely in the following 2 games vs the Cubs. Still think his reset will be via the lefty or a high caliber righty
Yes, but Ethier would help cull more. Entering today, 73 could move to 20+. Of the games already played: 21 were reset, 12 still waiting, 20 moved on & 1 sat idle
— oops miscounted; filtered incorrectly
34 moved on, 21 reset, 20 waiting, 1 idle
So if Ethier goes 0-fer we have a good population decrease else we can see 50ish 20+ gamers tomorrow
Well with Ethier's single, 20+ gamers minimum tomorrow will be 43 with just 9 waiting & 6 of them on last ABs.
Culling didn't do good enough job; need better results. 27 reset while 27 19-gamers tried to get to 20 which leaves us currently at 46, exactly where we started today. Polanco has 3 riding on him tonight (1 @ 20, 2 @ 19).
let me guess who the idle is…….
You get three guesses and the 1st two don't count 😉
Haha. I didn't even look at who he picked today since he dropped down. but I know who ur talking about.
And if he reads the blog…. Stock up on D.Freese(STL) for the next 9 days. Broken hand with hit-by-pitch today.
Cano also left early with bruised something. He's listed as day-to-day.
Yep, his left hand bruised. May see pinch duties for a couple days?
If others want to play the DL-game, here's another one for you. Add Boggs(MIL) to your next picks. He'll be sent back down when N.Morgan comes off DL tomorrow.
I see a lot of the leaders doubling on Ethier. LaV is it possible to check if any of them are riding Either for a long time? Just curious…….Thanx
You'd have to ask 00Liber. I don't keep those stats any longer, but he does. The only thing I have is last 2 days. If 00Liber see's this post, I'm sure he'll reply.
Ya. I'll look it up tomorrow. Been a long day.


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HENRIETTA — A woman charged in connection with two guns used in a former neighbor's deadly Christmas Eve ambush of firefighters pleaded not guilty Tuesday to a state charge of filing a falsified business record.
Neither 24-year-old Dawn Nguyen nor her lawyer spoke to reporters after the brief court appearance in Henrietta Town Court. Nguyen is free on the condition she not leave Monroe County except to attend college classes in a neighboring county.
Nguyen, of Greece, is accused of lying on a form when she bought guns later used by ex-convict William Spengler Jr. to kill two firefighters and wound three other first responders in Webster.
Nguyen faces the same charge in federal court.
Prosecutors said Nguyen indicated on a form that a 12-gauge shotgun and AR-15 semiautomatic rifle she bought at a Gander Mountain store in Henrietta in 2010 were for her, but they were really for Spengler, an ex-convict who wasn't allowed to have them. Spengler accompanied Nguyen to the store and picked out the weapons.
Spengler set his Webster house on fire on Christmas Eve and shot four volunteer firefighters, killing two, as they arrived on the scene. Two other firefighters and a police officer were wounded. Spengler, 62, who had served 17 years in prison for killing his grandmother with a hammer, then killed himself.
The blaze destroyed seven homes on the narrow stretch of land on Lake Ontario.
"She's very sorry that this individual chose to use the guns 2½ years later in this way and really shocked about what happened," Nguyen's lawyer John Parrinello said Monday.
Nguyen's family for a time lived next door to Spengler, and she knew him as "Uncle Billy," the lawyer said.
"I hope for her benefit that everybody understands how tangential, if at all, any role she had and how it is totally unrelated to what this maniac did on Christmas Eve," Parrinello said.

subset: commoncrawl


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The problem for climate deniers like Cameron Slater & David Farrar
The problem for climate deniers like Cameron Slater and David Farrar and Keeping Stock and every other right wing crypto-facist clown who try to suggest that human pollution isn't warming the planet is that every time a severe weather event occurs, people will look at that and see it as proof that global warming is happening.
When Bloomberg are attributing super storm Sandy to Global warming, you know it's a bad day for climate deniers...
It's Global Warming, Stupid
Yes, yes, it's unsophisticated to blame any given storm on climate change. Men and women in white lab coats tell us—and they're right—that many factors contribute to each severe weather episode. Climate deniers exploit scientific complexity to avoid any discussion at all.
Clarity, however, is not beyond reach. Hurricane Sandy demands it: At least 40 U.S. deaths. Economic losses expected to climb as high as $50 billion. Eight million homes without power. Hundreds of thousands of people evacuated. More than 15,000 flights grounded. Factories, stores, and hospitals shut. Lower Manhattan dark, silent, and underwater.
...Climate deniers like Slater, Farrar and Keeping stock rely on the same tactics the Tobacco industry used. Muddy the waters on the science (there is no direct link between smoking and cancer) and keep repeating that position so people don't think the science is as settled as it actually is.
This tactic has been adopted by big oil. A report put out by Greenpeace shows how one of the largest secret corporations in America, Koch Industries, is spending tens of millions on inaccurate and misleading information regarding climate change.
Koch Industries funded 20 organizations central to the global media echo chamber that was Climategate.
In 2007, Koch Industries funded an astrophysicist to write an article about polar bears which, masquerading as a piece of peer-reviewed literature, attempted to refute the threat to the species due to climate change.
Koch Industries also funded a Danish think tank which produced a "dubious study about the Danish wind industry", rejected by the Danish environment minister, which was then used to challenge President Obama's support of wind power while funding groups which supported a "widely debunked study" which claimed that Spain's support of renewable energy had lost the country jobs.
Oh and Koch Industries have also paid out huge amounts to other hard right climate denial think tanks like the Mercatus Center, Americans For Prosperity, The Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute.
Let's add this to what we already know about big oil sponsored climate denial...
Frank Luntz Memorandum to the Bush White House, 2002, on how to shut down the global warming debate?
Winning the Global Warming Debate – An Overview
1: The scientific debate remains open: Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate, and defer to scientists and other experts in the field.
Right, so in the same way the Tobacco companies attacked consensus of a link between smoking and cancer, big oil and big polluters are using similar smear tactics to question the science behind the evidence that man made pollution is causing the climate to rapidly change.
And let's not forget who is backing much of this smear campaign…
Climate Change Skeptics
The world's largest-ever gathering of global warming skeptics will assemble Sunday in New York City to confront the issue, "Global warming: Was it ever really a crisis?" About 800 scientists, economists, legislators, policy activists, and media representatives are expected to register at the second International Conference on Climate Change, opening Sunday, March 8 and concluding Tuesday, March 10 at the New York Marriott Marquis Hotel.
Hmmm, and I wonder who is organizing this climate change sKeptics picnic in wunderland? The Heartland Institute? Ummmm, aren't they the very same Heartland Institute who until 2006 were receiving money from Exxon Mobile and who also is behind the Tobacco Industries ludicrous position that Tobacco isn't scientifically proven to cause cancer and as such there shouldn't be taxes on cigarettes?
Shouldn't we at least be honest that much of the climate sKeptic agenda is actually funded by big oil?
Between 1998 and 2005: ExxonMobil Grants $16 Million to Global Warming Skeptic Organizations
ExxonMobil disperses roughly $16 million to organizations that are challenging the scientific consensus view that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. For many of the organizations, ExxonMobil is their single largest corporate donor, often providing more than 10 percent of their annual budgets. A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists will find that "[v]irtually all of them publish and publicize the work of a nearly identical group of spokespeople, including scientists who misrepresent peer-reviewed climate findings and confuse the public's understanding of global warming. Most of these organizations also include these same individuals as board members or scientific advisers." After the Bush administration withdraws from the Kyoto Protocol, the oil company steps up its support for these organizations. Some of the ExxonMobil-funded groups tell the New York Times that the increase is a response to the rising level of public interest in the issue. "Firefighters' budgets go up when fires go up," explains Fred L. Smith, head of the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Explaining ExxonMobil's support for these organizations, company spokesman Tom Cirigliano says: "We want to support organizations that are trying to broaden the debate on an issue that is so important to all of us. There is this whole issue that no one should question the science of global climate change. That is ludicrous. That's the kind of dark-ages thinking that gets you in a lot of trouble."
So all the climate deniers in NZ are parroting is big oil spin, but why do climate deniers like Slater, Farrar and Keeping Stock in NZ do this? They don't have the financial investment that big oil and polluters have to smoother the debate. The reason climate deniers like Slater and Farrar keep the spin lies going is because for them, it's a cultural war. Slater and Farrar can not ever agree that human pollution is causing the planet to heat because it forces them to reflect upon the free market they slavishly worship.
Both would prefer to marry Metiria Turei than admit the Greens have been right all along.
NZers need to see the fraud that climate skepticism is and need to understand those who are climate deniers are so because they have a financial interest in continuing to pollute, or they have a cultural incentive to deny the Greens are right.
Global warming is happening and it is being caused by human pollution. The sooner we start accepting that and adapting out economy the better.
Sadly National have done so much damage to our clean green brand by demeaning our new tourism line from 100% pure to 100% middle earth.
As Hot Topic points out, National's decision to pull out of Kyoto is nothing more than National looking after their big polluter mates.


text: Academicsera – 575th International Conference on Human Rights (ICHR) will be held on 26th-27th November, 2019 at Taipei , Taiwan. ICHR is to bring together innovative academics and industrial experts in the field of Science Technology and Management to a common forum. All the registered papers will be published by the World Research Library and will be submitted for review for indexing by Google Scholar etc.


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Each year, more than a thousand marine mammals die during mass strandings, grisly events in which large numbers of whales or dolphins become beached on the shore together. But scientists still don't know exactly why these strandings occur. Climatic events, unfamiliar underwater topography, and noise from seismic surveys and naval exercises have all been suggested to play a role. In another theory based on family ties, one or a few whales, driven by disease or starvation, veer off in the wrong direction and draw well-meaning family members into shallow, dangerous waters as they try to help.
However, a paper in this week's Journal of Heredity suggests that the role of relatives in mass strandings may not be quite so straightforward.
The researchers collected skin samples and information about the spatial distribution of 490 long-finned pilot whales stranded in 12 events across New Zealand and Tasmania. By studying the whales' mitochondrial DNA (a type of genetic information passed on from mother to offspring), the researchers could determine how closely related the stranded animals were.
To their surprise, the researchers found that many of the whales stranded together were completely unrelated. Furthermore, those that were related weren't even close to each other on the beach, as might be expected of relatives trying to support each other. And perhaps the most surprising finding was the fact that the mothers of many of the beached juveniles—up to 57 percent of them in one instance—weren't involved in the stranding. The data suggest a very different picture than what most scientists previously envisioned.
The study's authors suggest some strandings may be the result of a disruption of family ties. Strandings may be triggered by dramatic events such as the formation of "super pods," a phenomenon where several groups of whales come together to feed or mate. The competition and aggression that results from such a large number of whales gathering together may separate families, causing confusion and increasing the likelihood of a stranding event.
Journal of Heredity, 2013. DOI: 10.1093/jhered/est007 (About DOIs).


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Case Study Sector
New Profit, Inc. (NPI) is an innovative venture philanthropy fund. Founded by social entrepreneur Venessa Kirsch, NPI intends to raise large donations from individuals who wish to invest in nonprofit enterprises that could have a significant social impact and the capability to grow to scale. NPI searches and identifies such organizations, provides initial funding, monitors their performance, and then provides additional funding to enable them to become high-impact, nationwide organizations. NPI uses the Balanced Scorecard approach for measuring both its own performance and that of its portfolio companies. The Balanced Scorecard provides the language for the performance contract between NPI and its funders and board, and between NPI and its portfolio organizations.
Learning objective: To describe a new approach for funding nonprofit enterprises, using as an example a venture philanthropy fund that uses private venture capital philosophies and management tools. To illustrate how the Balanced Scorecard can be used in an active governance process to monitor and guide the performance of nonprofit portfolio organizations. Class discussion can focus both on the need for a new approach to sustain funding to nonprofits as well as the role of the Balanced Scorecard in becoming the "financial statement" equivalent for reporting the performance of such enterprises.
- Evaluation
- Strategy
- Northern America


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- Trending
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White Rabbit Dark Ale 6x330ml From a small brewery in Healesville, Vic, this is brewed using open-top fermentation that...Starts 01 Jul - Ends 11 Aug2 for $40
Beer Information for Australia
Whether you're throwing a party and need supplies or you're buying in bulk to enjoy the savings, find the best deals on beer by comparing prices online from retailers located in all parts of Australia. See our featured offers on Australian beers and imports from GraysOnline, Aldi and other local suppliers to buy the best-selling beers at lower prices compared to the high street.
Check out our current deals on packs of Beck's and Budweiser to save money and time having beer delivered directly to your home. We also have special offers on premium European lager beers, such as Grolsch and Heineken, and other international imports like Corona from Mexico, Leo from Thailand and Asahi from Japan. If you prefer to buy Australian beers, you can save even more with offers on Hahn and Victoria Bitter stubbies and cans of XXXX Gold, as well as budget brands like Rivet Lager.
The discounts don't end at beer either, with more offers on Newcastle Brown Ale, Guinness Draught and refreshing apple, pear and peach ciders, perfect for beating the heat at summer barbecues. If you or people in your family and social circle don't drink, we also have offers on Beck's non-alcoholic beer.
Browse our online catalogue to find more competitive prices for popular liquor, soft drinks and other beverages, and save money on your other groceries when comparing prices from online and high street retailers. Make sure you have enough beer glasses for everyone with our range of kitchenware.
To read Beer reviews check out the Lasoo blogs for daily professional and consumer Australian product reviews.


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Fruit cocktail pots
4 x 100g pots
Desserts are a great way to encourage your little one to try lots of different fruity tastes, and also some more traditional puddings as an occasional treat! Cow & Gate desserts are made with our best ingredients with no artificial flavourings, colourings or preservatives - just lots of great tastes babies love!
Product info
Allergy Information
For allergens, please see ingredients in bold.
Apple (56%), Pear (17%), Apricot (14%), Banana (13%), Concentrated lemon juice, Vitamin C.
Suitable for vegetarians.
Breastfeeding is recommended for the first 6 months of life. Please speak with a healthcare professional before introducing solid foods.
Nutritional information
Preparation & storage
Store in a cool dry place. May be kept in a refrigerator for up to 48 hours after opening. If fed from pot, discard unused portion.
Other products in this range
Useful articles from C&G baby club
Important notice
Breastfeeding is recommended for the first 6 months of life. The Department of Health recommend weaning at around 6 months. Please speak with a healthcare professional before introducing solid foods.
Our highest quality standards
At Cow & Gate we test our range to high standards so you can be sure you are making the right choice when you choose our baby and toddler milks or foods.
Any more questions?
Our specialist baby advisors and experienced mums are here to talk and ready to help whenever you need them. You can call or live chat us 8.30am - 5.30pm, Monday to Friday.


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Casey's jonesin': For an easy 911 escape
Talk about a really bad place to have a blowout: while approaching the summit of the Delaware Memorial Bridge. Now, this isn't just any bridge; at its peak, it soars 188 feet above the Delaware River.
So when the van Rosamond Casey was riding in chose that spot to blow a tire, things got scary– and dangerous– fast.
The driver worked her way over to the right lane and stopped. Luckily, they were near a section of the bridge with an actual sidewalk. In other sections, Casey explains, there's only a foot-wide clearance between the traffic and the fence. Everyone, including a 3-year-old and a 70-year-old, got out and stood near the van, which was at a dead stop as four lanes of traffic sped past.
Casey called 911 and learned that other drivers had already reported the breakdown and that help was on the way. By the time the tow-truck driver had changed the tire (which, under those circumstances, must have been challenging), about 45 minutes had gone by. She decided to call the people who were expecting them– but couldn't: The phone was in "emergency mode," and when she tried to dial out a message appeared that said, "Use restricted to emergency calls." There were no instructions, however, for getting out of emergency mode.
Fortunately, she was able to reach Sprint customer service by hitting *2. The employee she talked to, Casey says, was "kind of clueless"; she claims he said that to unlock the phone, she'd need to press some combination of buttons while talking to him– which, without a second cell phone, would be impossible. In the end, he was able to reset the phone by remote, and she made her call.
"I was so outraged," Casey says. "I've thought of all the ways it could have been disastrous." She thought about filing a complaint on Sprint's website, but decided that might be as effective as "throwing it into the ocean." Instead, she called me.
I spoke with Margaret Wright, regional public affairs manager for Tennessee and Virginia, who in turn called Sprint headquarters in Kansas City. Perhaps because Casey was somewhat unclear on the exact sequence of events, miscommunication ensued: Wright's response, after talking to Kansas City, was that Sprint customers were not barred from making other calls after dialing 911.
It took a little digging, but I now know quite a bit about Sprint's emergency mode and the reasoning behind it. First, I borrowed a friend's Sprint PCS Vision Phone VI-5225 by LG (the model Casey has) and dialed 911. After I hung up, "Emergency Mode" appeared on the display, along with "Exit" in an orange bar underneath. When I tried to make another call, the display changed to, "Use restricted to emergency calls." When the "Emergency Mode" display returned, I tried pressing various buttons to exit, but couldn't figure it out.
Luckily, my friend could. All I can say is, it wasn't intuitive– but then I'm not a Sprint PCS customer.
Internet research turned up two things. First, I reviewed user's manuals for four manufacturers' models of Sprint cell phones (LG, Toshiba, Motorola, and Sanyo). All except LG state that after a user dials 911, the phone goes into emergency mode– which the user will have to exit before making another call. LG's manual says only, "You can place calls to 911 (dial 911 and press talk), even if your phone is locked or your account is restricted." There's no mention of what follows, or how to get out of it.
Second, I learned that this function was designed to allow emergency services (i.e., 911) to call you. That's an excellent feature– but so is being able to make other calls. Wright agrees that the instructions for doing that, both on the display panel and in the user's guide, need to be improved.
Do you have a consumer problem or question? Email the Fearless Consumer, write her at 100 Second Street NW, 22902, or call 295-8700 ext. 406.


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Driver who crashed into Summit Stage bus admits to vehicular assault
summit daily news
BRECKENRIDGE – A man accused of driving his car into a Summit Stage bus, injuring his girlfriend and two children who were on the bus, pleaded guilty Monday to vehicular assault.
Joshua Pierce, 32, also entered a guilty plea to two counts of third-degree assault, a misdemeanor. Prosecutors dropped four other charges, including one count of attempted murder.
"We feel that the plea agreement in this case achieves both the necessity of holding the defendant accountable and accommodating the victim's needs in recovery," Deputy District Attorney Anne Francis stated.
Pierce was reportedly fighting with his on-again, off-again girlfriend when his car veered across Highway 6 and crashed into a Summit Stage bus in May.
His girlfriend suffered several broken bones, a torn aorta and internal damage in the collision and had to be airlifted to a Front Range hospital. A 3-year-old and a 15-year-old, both passengers on the bus, were injured as well.
Pierce was charged with the attempted murder of his girlfriend after footage from a surveillance camera on the bus showed Pierce appearing to intentionally drive his vehicle into the bus, according to an arrest affidavit.
Officers who contacted Pierce at the hospital after the accident said he also told them he drove his car into the bus on purpose in the midst of an argument with his girlfriend, the affidavit states.
But defense attorney Todd Barson said Monday the crash was an accident.
"(The victim) was contacted and she's made her intent known from the beginning, that this was just an accident," Barson told Judge Mark Thompson at a hearing for the plea agreement. "This didn't involve reckless or even careless behavior. It was just an accident based on the mental state of Mr. Pierce."
Pierce had not slept in more than seven days prior to the crash, Barson said.
The victim reportedly told prosecutors she wanted the case dropped entirely.
Pierce was initially charged with first-degree assault, attempt to commit murder in the second-degree and endangering public transportation, all class 3 felonies.
If convicted, he would have faced 10-32 years in prison for both the first-degree assault and attempted murder charges and 4-16 years for endangering public transportation.
Charging documents characterize the crimes pertaining Pierce's girlfriend as domestic violence.
Vehicular assault carries a penalty of 1-3 years in prison and fines of up to $100,000. The defense asked for probation in court Monday.
Pierce is currently out of jail on a $50,000 bond.
A sentencing hearing is set for March 11.
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Written by John Platt
The notoriously smoggy skies of Los Angeles are a little bit cleaner than you might expect, at least in one respect. According to a study announced Aug. 9 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the levels of certain vehicle-related pollutants in Los Angeles have dropped by 98% since the 1960s. The study has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres but is not yet available online.
The study looked specifically at vehicle-emitted pollutants called volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which enter the atmosphere from the tailpipes of cars and trucks. VOCs are one of the contributing factors to ground-level ozone, which can be damaging to peoples' lungs as well as to any plants in the area.
The drop in VOCs was most significant between 2002 and 2010, when they were cut in half. This drop was despite the fact that drivers in Los Angeles now use three times as much gasoline and diesel fuel as they did 50 years ago.
So why have VOC emissions fallen so dramatically? "The reason is simple," said the study's lead author, Carsten Warneke, Ph.D., a NOAA-funded scientist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder. "Cars are getting cleaner," he said in a prepared release. Contributing factors in the VOC decline cited by the NOAA include catalytic converters, improved engine efficiency, and reformatted fuels that are less prove to evaporation.
This doesn't mean that Los Angeles residents can breathe easier, however. While overall VOCs have dropped, some of the compounds remain at high levels. Propane and ethane, which are emitted by the burning of natural gas and other sources, have not declined as quickly. Another NOAA study recently found that a third VOC, ethanol, is actually increasing.
Meanwhile, although VOCs contribute to ozone, they are not the only factor influencing LA's infamous ozone-laden smog, which still remains the worst in the country, according to the annual State of the Air report from the American Lung Association, which was released this past April.
"Ozone and particle pollution contribute to thousands of hospitalizations, emergency room visits, and deaths every year," Dr. Kari Nadeau, a Stanford Medical School professor and American Lung Association researcher, said when the State of the Air report was released. "Air pollution can stunt the lung development of children, and cause health emergencies, especially for people suffering from chronic lung disease, including asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema. Both long-term and short-term exposures can result in serious health impacts."
The State of the Air report also ranked the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside area as having the third-highest level of annual particle pollution in the nation and the fourth-highest level of short-term particle pollution. But on the plus side, the association did note that LA's air quality was the best it has been since 1999.
A slightly earlier report, published this past February in the Archives of Internal Medicine, linked high smog levels to an increased risk of stroke and memory loss. The study was actually conducted in and reported on air pollution in Boston, but it pointed out that air quality levels even below current standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency still pose risks to people who breathe particulate air pollution. Boston did not even rank in the worst 25 metropolitan areas in the State of the Air report.
John Platt writes for the Mother Nature Network
More from MNN:
- How clean is the air? Your smartphone has the answer
- 7 U.S. cities with the worst air pollution
- Global greenhouse emissions continue to rise


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The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, the government does the work of accumulating the data for the calculation. The numbers are supplied in the Federal Reserve Z.1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States, which is released quarterly.
The first chart shows Q Ratio from 1900 to the present. I've calculated the ratio since the latest Fed data (through 2011 Q3) based on a subjective process of extrapolating the Z.1 data itself and factoring in the monthly averages of daily closes for the Vanguard Total Market ETF (VTI). Note: The Q4 data won't be released by the Fed until March 8th.
Interpreting the Ratio
The data since 1945 is a simple calculation using data from the Federal Reserve Z.1 Statistical Release, section B.102, Balance Sheet and Reconciliation Tables for Nonfinancial Corporate Business. Specifically it is the ratio of Line 35 (Market Value) divided by Line 32 (Replacement Cost). It might seem logical that fair value would be a 1:1 ratio. But that has not historically been the case. The explanation, according to Smithers & Co. (more about them later) is that "the replacement cost of company assets is overstated. This is because the long-term real return on corporate equity, according to the published data, is only 4.8%, while the long-term real return to investors is around 6.0%. Over the long-term and in equilibrium, the two must be the same."
The average (arithmetic mean) Q Ratio is about 0.71. In the chart below I've adjusted the Q Ratio to an arithmetic mean of 1 (i.e., divided the ratio data points by the average). This gives a more intuitive sense to the numbers. For example, the all-time Q Ratio high at the peak of the Tech Bubble was 1.82 — which suggests that the market price was 157% above the historic average of replacement cost. The all-time lows in 1921, 1932 and 1982 were around 0.30, which is about 57% below replacement cost. That's quite a range.
Another Means to an End
Smithers & Co., an investment firm in London, incorporates the Q Ratio in their analysis. In fact, CEO Andrew Smithers and economist Stephen Wright of the University of London coauthored a book on the Q Ratio, Valuing Wall Street. They prefer the geometric mean for standardizing the ratio, which has the effect of weighting the numbers toward the mean. The chart below is adjusted to the geometric mean, which, based on the same data as the two charts above, is 0.65. This analysis makes the Tech Bubble an even more dramatic outlier at 179% above the (geometric) mean.
Extrapolating Q
Unfortunately, the Q Ratio isn't a very timely metric. The Flow of Funds data is over two months old when it's released, and three months will pass before the next release. To address this problem, I've been experimenting with estimates for the more recent months based on a combination of changes in the VTI (the Vanguard Total Market ETF) price (a surrogate for line 35) and an extrapolation of the Flow of Funds data itself (a surrogate for line 32).
The Message of Q: Overvalued
Because of the sharp market decline in Q3 (e.g., VTI dropped 13.2% in Q3), the numerator in the Q ratio dropped significantly enough to reduce the Q valuation level from a high overvaluation level to a lower level of overvaluation than we've seen in the last few quarters: 15% above the arithmetic mean and 25% above the geometric mean. Now, at the end of January 2012 the broad market is up about 18%, which means our estimate of the Q ratio moves higher. My estimate would put the ratio about 33% above its arithmetic mean and 44% above its geometric mean. Of course periods of over- and under-valuation can last for many years at a time, so the Q Ratio is not a useful indicator for short-term investment timelines. This metric is more appropriate for formulating expectations for long-term market performance. As we can see in the next chart, the current level of Q has been associated with several market tops in history — the Tech Bubble being the notable exception.
For a quick look at the two components of the Q Ratio calculation, market value and replacement cost, here is an overlay of the two since the inception of quarterly Flow of Funds updates in 1952. There is an obvious similarity between market value and a broad market index, such as the S&P 500 or VTI. Price is the more volatile of the two, but this component can be easily extrapolated for the months following the latest Fed data. Unfortunately the less volatile replacement cost is not readily estimated from coincident indicators.
I added the regressions through the two data series as an afterthought. They perhaps help to illustrate the secular trend toward higher valuations.
Please see the companion article Market Valuation Indicators that features overlays of the Q Ratio, the P/E10 and the regression to trend in US Stocks since 1900. There we can see the extent to which these three indicators corroborate one another.
Footnote on intangibles: I frequently receive emails asking about the absence of a line item for intangibles in my Q Ratio analysis. On this topic I defer to Andrew Smithers, who touches on the topic in the FAQs on his website:
Does the Existence of Intangible Assets Invalidate q?
No, the evidence is that that the aggregate value of intangibles, if any, does not change over time relative to the replacement value of tangible assets. This is shown by the mean reversion of q relative to its average. For an academic analysis see "What Does q Predict?" by Donald Robertson and Stephen Wright, available onhttp://www.econ.bbk.ac.uk/faculty/wright.
This post originally appeared on Advisor Perspectives.


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Incorporating Spiritual Awareness
First off, to incorporate spiritual awareness programming into your club, you must understand what it is. Spiritual awareness programming includes any wellness regime that incorporates exercise techniques that focus on integrating physical exercise movement and mind/ body awareness. Typically, these techniques are Eastern movement practices such as yoga, meditation, tai chi chuan, qi gong or other types of martial-art techniques. These forms of movement allow the participants to become more aware of their own personal experience on many levels simultaneously.
Through the discipline of the physical exercise, breath work and concentration required to perform the activity, one has the opportunity to observe her physical strengths or weaknesses, mental reactions or distractions, and emotional responses or blockages, and perhaps have a spiritual awakening. Often during the relaxation segment of the workout, one is able to have a deepening experience, and come to a better understanding and acceptance of where she is in her life on each of these levels. This portion of the workout is the reward: the richness of integrating mind, body and spirit, and allowing oneself a moment of reflection and renewal.
Too often in our hurried, goal-oriented lives, we find ourselves rushing from moment to moment without much time for thought or reflection. The No. 1 concern in our society is the growing amount of stress and the diseases that occur because of the inability to process or deal effectively with these high levels of stress. Stress in and of itself can be a positive growth opportunity. It is when we experience too much stress or are unable to deal with it effectively that we experience distress. Our clients are looking for positive ways to handle stress. They are turning to us for the most efficient means to attain their goals of fitness, good health, vitality and longevity for a lifetime of wellness.
We are a society that is living longer than any other generation. A baby boomer turns 50 years of age every eight seconds in the United States, and this is a generation that has every intention of aging optimally. Our youth are ready to take on the world, and need strong, balanced bodies and minds to deal with the challenges that lie ahead. Our job as fitness/wellness professionals is to give them access to a totally balanced fitness package that includes programming for body, mind and spirit.
--Catherine Brumley is the fitness director at Canyon Ranch in the Berkshires, Lenox, Mass. Her formal training in dance and music has been the backdrop for her interest in tai chi and yoga. She is certified by the American College of Sports Medicine and the American Tai Chi Association. She is also certified in Spinning.
Programming Checklist
If you offer your members the following classes, then you are providing them with a totally balanced fitness package that caters to their body, mind and spirit.
* Cardiorespiratory activities-equipment or classes
* Strength training/conditioning classes or personal workout sessions
* Personal training options
* Flexibility workouts (e.g., stretch classes)
* Yoga
* Meditation
* Breathing classes
* Qi Gong and/or tai chi chuan
* Other possible forms of martial arts
Factors to Consider When Offering Spiritual Awareness Programs
* Basic Hatha yoga provides a good foundation
* Qi gong is easily accessible and simple to learn initially
* Tai chi chuan Yang style short form is a popular form
* Look for a yoga or meditation instructor who is certified through the National Yoga Alliance
* Look for a tai chi chuan, qi gong or martial arts instructor who is certified, possibly through the American Tai Chi Association or National Qi Gong Association, or someone who has many years of experience
* Offer the class at a time slot that is accessible
* Consider offering a series of six classes as an introduction to yoga, meditation, tai chi or qi gong
* Create a positive environment for the class (e.g., a quiet studio, relaxing music, proper props and equipment, fresh circulating air)
* Emphasize the importance of incorporating a spiritual awareness class into an existing weekly workout program (e.g., two indoor cycling classes and one yoga workout weekly)
* Focus on the necessity of balancing one's workout schedule in order to cross-train and to avoid injury, boredom and eventual burnout
* Highlight the opportunity to learn and enjoy new experiences
* Introduce the idea of the joys of improved self-awareness


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Nature Art Gallery
Nature Art gallery offers unique jewelry from Koh Phangan, Thailand made of gold, silver, precious and semi-precious stones as well as a selection of hand-made leather bags, belts and other accessories.
Learn about the properties of stones and crystals by visiting our Stone Info page or search through our categories to browse our unique products.
Welcome to the mysterious and magical world of stones. Come and let the stone choose you.
Our Gems & Stones
In ancient times, shamans, priests and healers used crystals and stones for protection and healing. Their power and beauty have a proven powerful effect on many of the people that come in contact with them.
Crystals are chunks of pure energy that sparkle and call out to you. Their power can lift your spirits, heal your body, and naturally attract to and open chakras.
Crystals can clear auras, help you learn, repulse electromagnetic emissions, improve memory and much more.
Our Locations
There are already three locations of the Nature Art Gallery in Thailand, one in Haad Rin on Koh Pha Ngan, one on Chaweng Beach road and one in Bophut on Fishermans Village Walking Street.
There will be more stores to come elsewhere in the near future. All three shops sell unique jewelry made of gold, silver, precious and semi-precious stones as well as a selection of hand-made leather bags, belts and other accessories.


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See our Sarah's Circle News page for additional information.
Please visit our Ways to Help page to learn more about the many ways you can directly impact the women of Sarah's Circle.
Sarah's Circle is a refuge for women who are homeless or in need of a safe space. By providing life necessities, housing, case management, clinical and social services, we encourage women to empower themselves by rebuilding both emotionally and physically; realizing their unique potential.
4838 N. Sheridan Road
Chicago, IL 60640
Phone: 773-728-1991


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IRVINE, Calif. (Aug. 16, 2009) - The United States swept Panama on Sunday at the 2010 World Championship Qualifier for NORCECA Pool F at the Bren Center on the campus of UC Irvine, setting up a showdown between two undefeated teams on Monday.
Team USA (2-0) defeated Panama, 25-12, 25-14, 25-11 and will face Dominican Republic (2-0) at 7:30 p.m. PT on Monday to determine the team that will advance to the 2010 World Championships in Italy. Panama (0-2) will play Guatemala (0-2) at 5 p.m. PT. The second-place team will go to Mexico next week for another qualifying tournament.
The United States' Clay Stanley (Honolulu, Hawai'i) led all scorers with 13 points on a match-high 10 kills, one block and a match-high two aces. Jayson Jablonsky (Yorba Linda, Calif.) had 10 points nine kills and one ace. David Smith (Saugus, Calif.) added seven points on three kills and a match-high four blocks.
"They've got some good players," Jablonsky said of Dominican Republic. "We've just got to come out and focus on our side of the court and play our best volleyball."
Domingo Avila led Panama with nine points on nine kills. Donaldo Urena added five points on five kills.
Team USA out-blocked Panama 7-1 and had four aces while Panama had none. The U.S. converted 35 of 52 kill attempts with one error. Panama completed 22 of 77 kill attempts with 15 errors.
Among other U.S. scorers, Andy Hein (Carol Stream, Ill.)scored six points on five kills and one block. Paul Lotman (Lakewood, Calif.) totaled five points on five kills. Sean Rooney (Wheaton, Ill.) tallied four points on three kills and one block. Donald Suxho (Korce, Albania) scored one point on one ace. Suxho was credited with two running sets and no faults on 16 attempts. Kevin Hansen (Newport Beach, Calif.) had five running sets and no faults on 28 attempts.
U.S. libero Rich Lambourne (Tustin, Calif.) was credited with eight excellent receptions and no faults on 12 attempts. Lotman had six excellent receptions and no faults on eight attempts.
The United States held an 8-5 lead at the first TTO of the first set, including a kill by Smith and a kill, a block by Hein and two Stanley aces. Team USA kept up the pressure and increased the lead 12-7. Panama scored on Ruben Cuero's kill, but the U.S. responded with a block by Rooney and scored the next six points behind Hansen's serving, including three blocks. Panama scored four more points in the match, including kills by Domingo Avila and Ricardo Brown, but Team USA reached set point first at 24-12 on a booming kill by Hein. The United States won the set on Panama's hitting error.
The U.S. Men took an 8-3 lead at the first TTO of the second set. Panama scored its three points on a U.S. error, a kill and a block. Panama came out of the break and scored two straight points on Urena's kill and a U.S. error. Later, Team USA's lead was 14-11 when Stanley's kill gave Hein the serve and he increased the U.S. lead to 19-11, including a U.S. triple block and two Panamanian errors. Panama scored three more times, including a kill from Araba, but the U.S. took the set 25-14.
Team USA held an 8-3 lead to open the third set, including an ace from Suxho, a kill by Jablonsky and two Smith blocks. The U.S. held a 10-5 lead when Stanley took the serve on Lotman's kill and scored three more points on Panama errors. The run ended when Stanley served out of bounds, but the damage was done. Panama never scored more than two points in a row as the U.S. took the set 25-11.
Tickets for the event are $12 for adults and $6 for children under 12. Groups of 15 or more can get tickets for $8 each and an all-session pass is $25. Tickets are on sale now at the Bren Center box office at (949) 824-5000 or at TicketMaster.com.
The City of Anaheim is the Official Host City for the U.S. Men's and Women's National Volleyball teams. The Men's Team relocated to Anaheim from Colorado Springs, CO in 2006, and the Women's Team followed in 2009, with both teams citing the advantages of training in Southern California, unequivocally the volleyball capitol of the country. The Men's Team won the gold medal, and the Women's team the silver medal, at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. Anaheim serves as the training headquarters for the U.S. Men's and Women's National Teams, and in partnership with USA Volleyball, will further promote the City throughout the volleyball and Olympic sport communities. USA Volleyball is the National Governing Body for the sport of volleyball in the United States, and is recognized as such by the Federation International de Volleyball (FIVB) and the United States Olympic Committee (USOC). Both the Men's and Women's Teams will train in Anaheim through the 2016 Olympic Games. For more information on the City of Anaheim, please visit www.anaheim.net. For more information on USA Volleyball, please visit www.usavolleyball.org.
2010 World Championship Qualifier for NORCECA Pool F
Aug. 15-17 in Irvine, Calif.
No. Name (Position, Height, Hometown, College)
2 Sean Rooney (OH, 6-9, Wheaton, Ill., Pepperdine)
3 Evan Patak (Opp, 6-8, Pleasanton, Calif., UC Santa Barbara)
4 David Lee (MB, 6-8, Alpine, Calif., Long Beach State)
5 Rich Lambourne (L, 6-3, Tustin, Calif., BYU)
6 Paul Lotman (OH, 6-7, Lakewood, Calif., Long Beach State)
7 Donald Suxho (S, 6-5, Korce, Albania, USC)
8 Andrew Hein (MB, 6-11, Carol Stream, Ill., Pepperdine)
10 David Smith (MB, 6-7, Saugus, Calif., UC Irvine)
13 Clay Stanley (Opp, 6-9, Honolulu, Hawai'i, Hawai'i)
14 Kevin Hansen (S, 6-5, Newport Beach, Calif., Stanford)
16 Jayson Jablonsky (OH, 6-5, Yorba Linda, Calif., UC Irvine)
18 Scott Touzinsky (OH, 6-6, St. Louis, Mo., Long Beach State)
Head Coach: Alan Knipe
Team Manager: Rick McLaughlin
Assistant Coach: Gary Sato
Trainer/Therapist: John Hawks
Technical Coordinator: Chris Jackson
Team Doctor: Chris Koutures
Medical Support: Aaron Brock
Match Schedule (All times PT)
Aug. 15
Dominican Republic def. Panama, 25-19, 25-20, 25-22
USA def. Guatemala, 25-8, 25-10, 25-6
Aug. 16
Dominican Republic def. Guatemala, 25-17, 25-21, 27-25
USA def. Panama, 25-12, 25-14, 25-11
Aug. 17
5 p.m.: Guatemala vs. Panama
7:30 p.m.: USA vs. Dominican Republic
B.J. Evans
Manager, Media Relations and Publications
Phone: 719-228-6800
E-Mail: firstname.lastname@example.com


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Skip navigation.
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We look forward to seeing you in October!
Do you plan on attending? Contact the Office of Alumnae Relations at email@example.com or 617-731-7132 to add your name to the list.
Questions or Comments
Are you interested in finding a classmate or a roommate? Would you like to add your photos to the Class of 1991 site? Do you have the contact information for a lost classmate? Contact the Office of Alumnae Relations at firstname.lastname@example.com or 617-731-7132.
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An outbreak sends waves of patients into emergency rooms and clinics. KARE's Boua Xiong reports.
Flu Near You
A vast swath of red across the U.S. indicates a high level of flu activity.
The nation's early flu season continued to grow in the U.S. this week, with no sign yet of a peak in the spread of coughing, achy, feverish illness, health officials said Friday.
"I think we're still accelerating," said Tom Skinner, a CDC spokesman.
Twenty-nine states and New York City reported high levels of flu activity, up from 16 states and NYC the previous week. Flu was widespread in 41 states, up from 31 states, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
As of the week ending Dec. 29, 2,257 people had been hospitalized with flu, and 18 children had died from complications of the illness, CDC reported.
"It's about five weeks ahead of the average flu season," said Lyn Finelli, lead of the surveillance and response team that monitors influenza for the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. "We haven't seen such an early season since 2003 to 2004."
That's the year that Joe Lastinger's 3-year-old daughter, Emily, fell ill with the flu in late January and died five days later.
"That was the first really bad season for children in a while," said Lastinger, 40, who lives near Dallas, Texas. "For whatever reason that's not well understood, it affected her and it killed her."
During that season, illnesses peaked in early to mid-December, followed by a peak in flu-related pneumonia and deaths in early January. It was over by mid-February and was considered a "moderately severe" season for flu, according to the CDC. Finelli and other CDC officials say it's too early to tell exactly how bad this year's season will be.
But over at Google Flu Trends, which monitors flu activity in the U.S. and around the world based on internet search terms, this year's season has already topped the bright-red "intense" category.
And at Flu Near You, a new real-time tracking tool that's gaining about 100 participants each week, about 4 percent of the 10,000 users say they've come down with flu symptoms.
Joe Lastinger's 3-year-old daughter, Emily, fell ill with the flu in late January 2004 and died five days later.
"That's huge," says John Brownstein, an epidemiologist and assistant professor of pediatrics at Harvard Medical School and Children's Hospital Boston. "Last year, we never got near this."
Brownstein is one of the founders of the project coordinated by Children's Hospital Boston, the Skoll Global Threats Fund and the American Public Health Association. Though it's still in its early stages, it already has generated new, interesting and, most of all, immediate data about this year's flu season.
"It's what we call 'nowcasting,'" Brownstein said. "It's a more up-to-date view."
CDC data, which is based on visits to doctors for influenza-like illness, can lag two weeks or more behind real-time activity.
By contrast, Flu Near You can paint an immediate picture of what's new with flu.
For instance, Brownstein said his data show that cough is the most frequently reported flu symptom this season, at 19 percent. It's been followed by sore throat, 16 percent; fatigue, 15 percent; headache, 14 percent; body ache, 10 percent and fever, just 7 percent.
More telling, for people who reported both flu symptoms and vaccination status, of those who got the flu, three out of four were not vaccinated, while a quarter had gotten their flu shots.
Brownstein cautioned that can't be used as a true measure of this season's vaccine efficacy because of variables in reporting. But the CDC says that in the 2010-2011 flu season, vaccine effectiveness was about 60 percent for all age groups combined.
The agency has received reports that people who were vaccinated still developed laboratory-confirmed strains of flu. CDC officials said it's not possible to know whether that's happening more this season than usual and that the agency is "watching the situation closely."
Overall, this year's vaccines appear to be well matched for the two strains of influenza A and one strain of influenza B that are circulating this year, CDC officials have said.
The dominant strain this year is the H3N2 strain, which can cause more serious illness. Flu seasons can vary widely, but some years are severe, with hospitalizations of up to 200,000 people and between 3,000 and 49,000 deaths during a season.
As of December 14, the latest CDC figures available, about 127 million doses of flu vaccine had been distributed, from about 135 million doses produced for this season.
According to the Centers for Disease Control, flu season is here early in all 50 states, and it could be very serious. Dr. Nancy Snyderman explains the spike and says it is still not too late to get a flu shot.
Joe Lastinger was one of the first to sign up for the Flu Near You tracking program after its test phase. The health care executive and father of three surviving children said it gives participants information they can act on about flu in their communities.
"I'm always excited about getting ahead of it," he said. "This is a tool you can use. If everybody starts reporting these symptoms, you're ahead."
Information about vaccination is particularly important, said Lastinger. Flu vaccinations weren't routinely recommended for healthy children Emily's age back then, and Lastinger and his wife weren't worried about it.
"For us, vaccination was the thing we should have done, had we known," he said. "Flu needed to be up there on our parent radar of things to worry about. We think it should be on every parent's list."
Related stories:
- More evidence of a nasty flu season ahead
- Flu season could be a bad one, health officials say
- Flu shots still a hard sell, health experts find


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Builder: Tenta Inc of Quebec
Owned by Maurice Monette, partnered with a Haitian firm and several North American suppliers
Style: Walls made of foam panels that slide into posts and beams of aluminum, allowing the structure to shift and move
Size and cost: A 400-square-foot home would cost about $43,000 and take four days to erect
Time to build (estimated): About a week, with four workers
Maurice Monette, who worked in the tent industry for 30 years providing tents for weddings and conferences, used his knowledge to create a modular home he calls The Human because it can shift in the event of an earthquake or hurricane. The high-density foam walls with an insulation rating of R30 are sheathed in a thin coat of steel to protect against fire and damage. They fit into slots in the aluminum frame posts, which allow them to shift up and down in the event the house shakes.
The house rests on a frame of galvanized steel beams, which sits on a series of eight-foot-long steel poles screwed into the earth, which can't be ripped out of the soil, and eliminates the need for an expensive cement slab foundation. Putting the house above ground prevents flooding, makes the house cooler, and offers storage space. The floor is made of non-flammable cement board, in case the cooking is done inside.
Because many houses might not be linked to sewage, water or electricity networks for years, if ever, it must be self-contained. Monette is installing a shower and compostable toilet whose remnants can be used for fertilizer. There will be a 2,000-litre bladder that will collect rainwater, and technology to treat the water for drinking. Solar panels will provide electricity. The roof is vented to allow circulation, and made of roofing vinyl used for commercial buildings. The building is of a modular design, easily expanded or transformed, and meant to last for decades
Monette is the head of a consortium of 13 Quebec, North American and European suppliers providing materials for the home.
It is airy, clean and pleasant inside, with a kitchen, shower and toilet, but more than twice as expensive as most of his competitors at the Building Back Better Communities Exposition in Haiti. If chosen for a contract, Monette said he and some of his suppliers would build factories in Haiti to construct the materials and the homes.
Monette has also submitted his plans for Projet Tenta Village Agricole, a residential community that would include an industrial complex in the middle where residents can work, for communities of 30,000 people. The initial plans have been accepted by the Haiti Interim Reconstruction Commission, co-chaired by former U.S. president Bill Clinton. If accepted, Monette said each village would cost about $200 million to build, with money coming from international aid and the Haitian central bank.
The IRCH has however, asked for further details of how this village would be financed, and approval letters from several government ministries.


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Svijet u kome živimo
Svijet u kome živimo
"The legend of the Wandering Jew." The Jew flees the cross and spends, this is no legend, all of time wandering, wondering, not daring to consider that he might have been wrong about the man called Yeshua.
... η ανθρώπινη ζωή είναι ενας χορός...
Small Business Smart Marketing
How to have a successful and meaningful life
A new commandment I give unto you, That ye love one another; as I have loved you ... John 13:34
Poems, poets, poetry, writing, poetry challenges
Ballet News is a professionally written website
make every day count - always love always
cycling annually from Johannesburg to Cape Town to raise money and awareness for HIV and AIDS in South Africa and globally
As I navigate through this life ...
a blog about justice & modern-day slavery
cool stuff for lesbians by a lesbian
Exploring our "Inner Evolution"
...might I be found in words I leave behind
~Life is a song, Love is the music..
~if ballet were any easier, they'd call it football...
An insight to a heart mind and soul.
..curated by @PatrickYaeger
Ballet News is a professionally written website
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A freeform way of life, love and everything
The Tools I Wish I'd Known About Sooner
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Motivate. Elevate. Laugh and Live Positively!


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- "Safe? When was the last time you had any REAL fun doing anything safe?" - Maxima Blastenheimer [1] (TCG Darkmoon Faire 1)
The Blastenheimer 5000 Ultra Cannon is one of the attractions of the Darkmoon Faire. The ultra cannon can blast players into the air, giving them a fun ride.
When you talk to cannoneer Maxima Blastenheimer she will explain the workings of the cannon to you.
In short: to get a launch, right-click the cannon to activate it. You will be loaded into the barrel, the cannon is aimed and off you go. During the flight you will get a Magic Wings buff which will make you glide until you deactivate the effect.
The Target
Near the end of the flight there is a target floating in the water. For extra fun you can try to drop yourself inside that target. Right click the Wings buff icon to remove the wings and drop. On hitting the water or the ground you will get a Touchdown! buff for one second.
Landing close to the target will give you a buff that lasts for one hour. The buff has no effect apart from showing your accomplishment. Different buffs are given depending on the distance to the center of the target:
- Poor Shot! Your latest attempt at the cannon landed you near the target area. Better luck next time!
- Close! Your latest attempt at the cannon was close to the center, but not close enough.
- Bullseye! Your latest attempt at the cannon was dead on!
Beware when you drop that landing in the water is usually safe (apart from possible level 6-9 mobs nearby), but dropping on land will probably kill you. Especially in Thunder Bluff a slight overshoot or undershoot will smack your face mercilessly into the ground.
Riding the wings all the way to the end will put you down relatively safely.
The cannon travels with the Darkmoon Faire and can be found nearby.
- In Elwynn Forest on the east side of the faire.
- On Thunder Bluff near the top of the lifts that take you to the faire[41, 67].
- In Shattrath City on the Terrace of Light near the Aldor bank[52, 31].
The cannon was most likely created by cannoneer Maxima Blastenheimer and named after her.
In Thunder Bluff the cannon is a nice quick transport to Bloodhoof Village.
Patch changes
- Patch 1.9.0 (03-Jan-2006): Added.


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Life — How Did It Get Here? By Evolution or by Creation?
Life — How Did It Get Here? By Evolution or by Creation? is a book published by the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society. As the subtitles indicate, it is about whether life came about via evolution or by creation.
Central to the theme of the book is its insistence upon muddling evolution with abiogenesis, and claims that abiogenesis is a necessary foundation to evolution. Though most of the book is written to appeal to someone of a scientific mindset, the ultimate goal becomes apparent in the last few chapters: to convert the reader to Christianity, specifically the Jehovah's Witness denomination.
Chapter 17: Can You Trust the Bible?[edit]
This chapter attempts to demonstrate that the Bible is trustworthy by showing that:
- it contains knowledge unavailable to its authors,
- it is an accurate record of events,
- it has "internal harmony around a central theme", which is unlikely if it was written by multiple independent authors.
While this approach is sound, the execution is flawed.
The book uses Job 26:7 to claim that the Bible authors knew that the Earth hangs in space, and Isaiah 40:22 to claim that they knew that it was round.
To support the latter claim, the book cites the fact that the translators of the Douay version of the Bible used the word "globe" in the translation of Isaiah 40:22, ignoring the fact that most other English translations use "circle". This is cherry picking.
This section also ignores passages like Job 9:6 , which claims that the Earth has pillars, and Revelation 7:1 , which claims that the Earth has corners. Again, this is cherry-picking.
The book uses Ecclesiastes 1:7 to claim that the author knew about the water cycle:
7 unto the place from whence the rivers come, thither they return again.
However, this verse is rather vague, and can apply to anything from evaporation to giant underground pumps.
The section on history mainly falls prey to the Spiderman fallacy: the fact that archeology has confirmed the existence of many of the people, places, and ordinary events (such as battles) in the Bible does not confirm that extraordinary events such as Noah's flood or Joshua's long day ever took place.
Finally, the chapter claims that the authors of the Bible displayed unusual honesty: for instance, in Deuteronomy Moses admits failings that prevent him from entering the promised land. The book never attempts to establish that Moses ever existed, or that he wrote the book of Deuteronomy.
The Bible is also said to have "internal harmony around a central theme", which would be unexpected in a book written by over 40 authors over 16 centuries. This claim fails on two counts.
Firstly, the book doesn't say what this theme is. It is difficult to find the theme that unites books as disparate as Ruth, the Song of Solomon, Joshua, and Revelation.
Secondly, this argument ignores the extensive editing and redacting that the Bible underwent.