March 13 Seed Watch: Final Steps Toward Bracketing – Basketball U.
With just one day left, we’re going to shift the focus of the Seed Watch a bit.
Thus, the autobids leave Cornell on the 12/13 fringe with only the Conference USA (Houston over UTEP), Atlantic Coast Conference (Miami or North Carolina State over Duke and Georgia Tech) and Southeastern Conference (Mississippi State over Vanderbilt and Kentucky/Tennessee winner) as automatic qualifiers that could bump Cornell up the S-Curve.
The Big Red’s seed will be based on which of Siena, St. Mary’s and Utah State it can rise past as well as which at larges it can sneak by as well. Right now, the bottom six at larges, according to ESPN’s Bracketology, are Florida, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Illinois, Rhode Island and Washington. Those 10 teams (including Cornell) will comprise 2 13-seeds and all of the 11 and 12 seed lines.
Separating the tightly-compact group above depends on what the committee will ultimately value. Cornell’s RPI is competitive, if not slightly below the average of that group and its quality win profile is among the weakest. It also carries with it that embarrassing loss at The Palestra. But it’s 16-3 road/neutral record can’t be topped and its non-conference RPI is solid.
While many believe that the Big Red could rise as high as an 11 seed, that would require heavy weighting of that road/neutral performance. The safest bet is that Cornell will enter the tourney as a 12, with an 11 seed being slightly more likely than the Big Red falling down to the 13 line.
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