MOCHALOV (stall nine of 13), a non-runner from stall 11 of 11 at Lingfield ahead of his latest intended start, makes each-way appeal in the 1m 0-55 Class 6 totepool Cashback Club At toteposrt.com Handicap at Chelmsford (3.00).
It’s not easy to make the transition from maiden hurdle winner to Grade 1 hurdle winner in a single step, with just 16 of 193 qualifiers doing the double since 2002 (8.3% strike-rate). Backing these horses blind would have resulted in a loss of £102.73 to a £1 level stake at SP (53.2% on turnover).
Stuart Williams has a good record when using a first-time tongue-tie in all-weather handicaps, scoring with nine of the 44 qualifiers (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£44.85 at Betfair SP).
WATERSMEET had no answer to the progressive Aircraft Carrier at Wolverhampton last time but will be happier back at Lingfield in the two-mile Betway Conditions Stakes (3.25), a race he won 12 months ago.
ONE MORE CHANCE (stall four of 12) blew the start at Wolverhampton last time, doing well to get within three lengths of the all-the-way winner. Mick Appleby’s four-year-old is clearly quirky – she refused at the same venue the time before – but can be chanced to small stakes in a first-time visor when she contests the mile Follow Sun Racing On Twitter Handicap at Southwell on Thursday afternoon (3.40). Her sole success came over course and distance and it’s interesting to note that her trainer is five from 14 (35.7% strike-rate) with his first-time visored runners on Fibresand since the start of 2015 for a profit of £43.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. All five winners were unplaced on their latest outing and the two that switched from Wolverhampton both won (12-1 and 7-1).
Progeny of Rip Van Winkle have a good record on Tapeta and GRAVITY WAVE will appreciate the return to Wolverhampton when he lines up in the 1m4f Betway Classified Claiming Stakes (5.45).
Henry Oliver did us a favour at Kempton yesterday and the in-form handler can strike again courtesy of ANOTHER THEATRE, who goes in the opening Watch Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at Newcastle (1.20).
PEAK PRINCESS (stall six of six) wasn’t disgraced when fifth of seven in a Class 2 conditions contest at Wolverhampton on her debut for Archie Watson and will appreciate the return to handicap company when she contests the Ladbrokes EBF Fillies’ Handicap at the same venue on Monday (6.25).
BALLARD DOWN, a three-time winner for William Knight, ran a pleasing race on his debut for David O’Meara when third of five at Newcastle a fortnight ago. The six-year-old wasn’t helped by racing close to the pace in that mile handicap and will be happier back on Polytrack in the Sun Racing No1 Racing Site Handicap at Lingfield (3.40).
WOTAMADAM (stall five of 12) has yet to win a race but has only had three runs in handicaps and her turn won’t be far away judged on her 33-1 third at Lingfield last month on her first outing after more than a year off.
Southwell’s 5f Betway Sprint Handicap (2.20) is an absolute belter and the market, understandably, is headed by course expert Foolaad (stall one of seven). He ran a pleasing comeback when second to Outrage at Newcastle 16 days ago and he was four from four over trip and track last winter.
Mark Brisbourne has his string in excellent from and STORM LIGHTNING (stall two of 11) will appreciate the return to 6f in the opening Class 7 racingtv.com Handicap at Kempton on Wednesday evening (4.40).
Sandy Thomson does well with his winter runners and had we bet everything he sent out from 1 November until the end of February, since 2013, we would have won 50 of our 251 bets (19.9% strike-rate) and made a huge profit of £185.72 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£520.68 at Betfair SP).
It was a front-runner’s benefit over the shorter trips at Wolverhampton on Saturday night and while there’s no guarantee that the track will behave the same today I’m certainly happy to side with prominent racer TY ROCK BRANDY in the 6f Betway Handicap (7.25).
Sunday’s jumps cards in Britain are pretty uninspiring but FIDDLERS BOW scored comfortably in a two-mile handicap chase at Ayr 12 days ago on his first start since a wind operation and can follow up in the racingtv.com Handicap Chase at the same venue (3.05).
A SURE WELCOME (stall 2 of 11) Has a fine strike-rate on the all-weather for a horses who regularly plies his trade at Class 5 level, winning seven of his 19 starts.
FAREEQ returned to form when second to Mercers in a 5f Lingfield handicap on New Year’s Eve and the form has been boosted by the winner, just caught at Kempton when bidding to follow up, and the third, Pharoh Jake, a 12-1 scorer on his next start. He peaked at this time last year, winning at Chelmsford on January 18, and can go one better when he returns to Lingfield for the Betway Handicap (3.05).
COLD FIRE isn’t an obvious selection in the Class 7 sunracing.co.uk Handicap at Newcastle (4.25) but Robyn Brysland’s lightly raced six-year-old wouldn’t have been suited by the Fibresand surface at Southwell on his stable debut last time.
BROCKEY RISE is best in Class 6 races over 6f-7f ,after a recent outing (within 21 days), recording form figures under these conditions of 12125721076 (3-11) for a profit of £27.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Arcano progeny tend to improve when they reach the age of four and they also seem best after a recent outing (21 days or less). Had we bet every qualifier on the Flat or in bumpers we would have won 68 of our 435 bets (15.6% strike-rate) and made a profit of £106.53 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£307.93 at Betfair SP).