Odds are really odds? Or just the hope of odds/luck?
Leaving aside the winning odds of AA or KK preflop and the head to head matches, the odds calculation before and after the Flop, the Turn and the River, are all made under the asumption that the cards you need are still in the deck, but actually you don't know if they are still there or if they were dealt to the rest of the players. So, does that make them just a hope?
This is what I'm thinking lately, and this is the moment where enters the ability to read people, and do or call bluffes.
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Both, if I understand you correctly. The odds only take into account the cards that the person who is trying to interpret the odds knows about, i.e., the ones in his hand and the ones face up on the table. The rest of the cards 'could' still be in play, which is what the person interpreting the odds is hoping. That's the only way it can work.
However, most of us know that our opponent is most likely holding face cards, AX, suited connectors/gappers or a pair. That knowledge combined with any significant betting allows us to refine the odds quite a bit, to the point where we often do know what our opponent is holding.
in this case, there is only your understanding of the stack drawing. you are playing, gain experience. experience will tell you what to do in a difficult situation. playing you can take into account the chances of finding the cards you need in the deck, without taking into account that they have already thrown off the apponents in the pass. you rely on yourself and your passion, which may not in any bad time to tell you all!
That is just the way basic math works.It just doesn`t matter, whether some of your outs are dead. Let me show you a simplified example.
Let`s say you`re playing heads up and there are 10 cards left in the deck and you have 1 chance to draw 1 out.
So your odds are 1\10 * 100% = 10%.
Now let`s calculate it another way.
Since your opponent is holding 2 cards, there is 20% chance that he is holding your out.
1. 20% of the time you are dead. Equity = 0%.
2. 80% of the time you are drawing to 1 of 8 cards (remember, your opponent has 2 cards that can`t help you). Equity = 12.5%.
It's a great point whether the card required to win a hand is in the deck or dealt out.
If the required card is still the deck then the calculated odds based on a about 2% per card are valid.
To play a bit saver, you could assume one of the required cards has been dealt out and therefore not in play.
You can then calculate the odds based on the remaining outs.
Yes, that is true. What I do is take a little off for a lost card or two. It seems to work pretty good for me. Good luck !
re: Poker & Odds are really odds? Or just the hope of odds/luck?
I was wondering if the computer RNG uses 52 cards like the real deck and therefore once the cards are dealt the order will not change.
Does anyone know or can direct me to a site on card dealing using a RNG.
thank you for the link but the poker star's site still doesn't tell if they use 52 cards or multiple decks.
The cards are referred to as a single deck..
Once the deck is shuffled, it is set.
did they give u answer about deck?
Yes the answer was the word "deck" which implies 52 cards but I have heard otherwise.
The quantum world behaves when no one is looking. Maybe, the odds are 50/50 for all of our actions, once that the math is comforting. Without a deep understanding of it, we would probably be extinct by now.
Outs and outs to know how many theoretically need to you still have cards in the deck.
The chance and the chance to hope that the theory will coincide with reality!
thank you for the calculations.
I have always wondered about the chances of winning based on some else holding your outs which of course is always a possibility.
They are outs as long as you do not know they are not. The exception would be if you have reason to believe your opponent has some, such as a board with 2 of the same suit as you, no pairs on board, no straight possible. Does he have 2 of the same suit as you? Is his high card higher than yours? Or is he betting 2 pair or a set?
Odds works perfectly in Heads up SNG but in a MTT we need to take at least few cards are out with other players. It gives us the boost to fold out hands and to practice about the pot control.
Thank you for the calculations. That is very hard work.
We cannot just assume that the outs we need are going to be dealt to other players. It makes no difference how many players there is. If your out is at the bottom of the deck or already been dealt makes no difference. The only cards that matter will be the ones left to come.. from the top of the deck. If you dont know its already been dealt or its at bottom of deck, the odds of drawing the out do not change. This is a fallacy and its all in your head if you think more players being dealt in somehow changes the cards that will be dealt on the turn or river.
hi, i think it's only odds))there no luck on the distance!
You are right that it depends on if the cards are still in the deck... but think of this... there are also odds that someone has been dealt one of your outs right... and what are those odds... I think they are the same odds of that card hitting the turn or river (per card)... When calculating odds to hit your hand its around ~2% for each out, but why do you use %2 when the deck after dealt is only 34 cards, its because the you use the percent of the entire deck because that keeps it constant. If you knew how many of your odds were dealt then you could consider the deck to be shorter after being dealt which might give you roughly the same odds either way.
LOL odds are based on math buddy, there is no such thing as "odds to hope or luck". Math is a huge thing in this game and every player should know at least a bit of it. GL!
Poker is a game using incomplete information. There are a lot of unknowns.
So now the odds of hitting your 4-outer for a gut-shot straight draw is 4 out of 47 instead of 4 out of 52.
Think of it this way... Are the odds different when your playing a 9 table from when your heads-up? From a mathematical standpoint, and if we are to consider the odds calculator on this website, the answer is NO. The odds are the same. However, if you were to input probabilistic calculus, the odds of hitting a "Hail Mary" or simply a card that you need to win the hand, would significantly be higher when your heads-up than in a 9 player table, because the probability for the card you need, still existing in the remaining cards is about 7 times higher (still it doesn't mean you will hit it, the chance for that being significantly lower than in a 9 player table). But such a formula would rely on algorithms that probably haven't been invented yet, or simply would require to much time and processing power to calculate. Just a guess, but i think gamblers have been trying at that since the "invention" of such games. Poker, as much as it is about gambling, is about science, and not a very complicated one. It's sad that nowadays (at least when it comes to online poker), people rely mostly on their gut, playing against the odds, and mixing live playing styles with the online game. Odds by definition, are just that. In my opinion the hardest thing to learn in poker is... folding, whether you like it or not. Also, the rules are there for a reason, and were not written by someone who didn't have anything better to do. Combining the odds, with the rules, and knowing when to fold has proven to be the way to go in the long-term. Then again "karma is a b...tch" and you could find yourself playing against someone who is just... incredibly lucky, and will call you with anything, simply relying on luck, in which case... all the science stuff, doesn't mean squat... your odds would still be zero to none.
It makes no difference since you have absolutely no knowledge of which of the cards were folded. If one of the guys that have folded told you his exact two cards you would be able to make use of that information. But having an information about two cards out of 10 being folded doesn't provide you any useful insight.
Your oponents will fold a card that you need sometimes and sometimes they will fold all the cards that you do not need this increasing you odds of hitting, but you do not know that unless they tell you what they have folded or unless you have an xray vision.
It's the same as that experiment with cat in a box with a flask of poison. Until you open a box cat is both dead and alive.
Your assuming too much. Only thing it says is that the cards are constantly shuffling. Doesn't say how many decks.
Odds and outs are the chances and maths of pokers. They are the chance you have of completing your draw and getting your hand against your oppo. say you have a flush draw you have 9 outs to that draw or if your drawing to a straight and a flush if it is open ended you have 17 outs if it is a gut shot you have 13 outs those are your odds of hitting the hands yes there is a luck element to it but there is a lot of skill in play as well when your drawing to those hands such as pot control and bet sizing and hopefully you playing in the right position, because playing in position is key or you will be ran over a lot of times if you don't. so good luck at the tables I hope that gives you an example of odds and out.
The odds are the odds. We can't (or shouldn't) know what cards the other players are dealt. This is why the odds are always calculated by your number of possible outs divided by the number of unknown cards ( the deck - your hole cards and community cards). The only time we can adjust this with certainty is if a card is accidently shown.
This calculation should even out in the long run. Sure, other players could have folded some of the cards you needed and therefore your true odds are less than what you had hoped. But there are other times most or even all your outs are available and your true odds of winning are greater.