The 2016 AFL Grand Final will be played between the Sydney Swans and Western Bulldogs at the MCG this Saturday. It will be the first ever Grand Final between the Swans and Bulldogs in the history of the AFL.
The Bulldogs haven’t won the Grand Final since 1955, can they re-write the record books against the highly-favoured Swans in 2016?
Read the following AFL Grand Final preview for our best value bets and tips.
In the last two matches against each other, the Bulldogs have upset the Swans both times at the SCG. In close matches, both games have ended with the Bulldogs in front by 4 points. In the 2016 matchup, Lance Franklin kicked 5 goals while Luke Parker laid 10 tackles and 34 possessions for Sydney. Jake Stringer kicked 3 goals for the Bulldogs and Marcus Bontempelli had 29 disposals/8 tackles.
Before 2015, the Swans had won the last six matches against the Bulldogs by an average of 63 points. Then in the 2010 semi finals, the Bulldogs with former Sydney forward Barry Hall, defeated Sydney by just 5 points. That game was also the last match at the MCG between Sydney and the Western Bulldogs.
The Western Bulldogs have won the last three finals matches against the Swans, all played at the MCG. After beating the Swans, the Bulldogs have lost all three matches.
If you’re looking for a total match points value bet, the last two games between the two sides range in the 151-160 points market ($6.15).
Looking at the last five Grand Finals and the total points overall. The average has been 178 total points per game ($6.15). Also in only two games has the scoring reached over 200 points. Therefore, the 201-210 points market at $12.50 seems a long shot bet.
In the last two Grand Finals, the Hawks have kicked over 100 points against Sydney and West Coast. However, the Bulldogs haven’t kicked over 100 points against the Swans since 2010.
Of the last five AFL Grand Finals, the average winning margin has been 34 points. The last two matches have gone into 40+ territory as the Hawks dominated in the first half. Against the Bulldogs, the Swans have won by 40+ three times out of the last 6 clashes. Although, those matches were played at the SCG and Etihad Stadium. The last three matches played at the MCG between the two sides have been in the 1-39 margin.
In the halftime/fulltime markets the Sydney/Western Bulldogs bet at $8.95 offers a fantastic value bet based on the two sides last few meetings. The Sydney/Sydney halftime/fulltime double is the favourite bet at $1.91. Once the Swans lead at halftime they’re hard to beat but the Bulldogs have proved they can this season.
The Swans led at half-time in Round 15, 2016 against the Bulldogs by 10 points. The Bulldogs then came back in the second half and defeated the Swans by 4 points. While the Bulldogs produced the halftime/fulltime double bet against the Hawks in the semi-finals. The Hawks led at halftime by 1 point and the Bulldogs won the match by 23 points.
The Swans ($1.60) are the early favourite with Luxbet to win the 2016 AFL Grand Final. Having played in 5 Grand Finals over the last 20 years, the Swans are experienced and deserve to be favourite. They also finished the regular season on top of the ladder.
However, in the first week of the finals their cross-town rivals, the Giants, upset the Swans by 6 points. Sydney put the loss behind them and took care of the Crows at home with a seven goal first quarter the catalyst for victory.
The Swans moved onto the Preliminary finals with a clash against Geelong in Melbourne. Again the Swans would come out early and lead by 7 goals at quarter time. The Cats staged a small comeback and injuries started to halt the Swans momentum. However, they would secure their place in the Grand Final with another 6 goal win.
Sydney have a few injury concerns with Jarrad McVeigh, Callum Mills, Aliir Aliir and Luke Parker looking to prove their fitness for the Grand Final. McVeigh missed the last match with a calf injury. Mills injured his hamstring against the Giants a few weeks ago. Aliir Aliir suffered a knee injury against the Cats and Luke Parker looked to have hurt his ankle.
The Bulldogs are the outsiders to win the Grand Final at $2.40. They’re the first team to reach the Grand Final from seventh on the ladder in AFL history.
Last week they defied the odds at $3.00 to win and defeated the Giants away from home. Clay Smith and Tory Dickson both kicked four goals for the Bulldogs in the victory. The Bulldogs have also beaten the Hawks and Eagles in the 2016 finals to reach the Grand Final against the Swans.
Inspirational Captain Robert Murphy will unfortunately not play in the Grand Final with a knee injury. He picked up the injury in Round 4 against the Hawks. The Bulldogs have overcome injuries this season but coach Luke Beveridge managed to keep the team playing well through adversity. Coming into the Grand Final, Jordan Roughead remains in doubt after a serious eye injury kept him out of the match in the second quarter.
Josh Dunkley is the son of former Sydney defender Andrew Dunkley and will be playing his first Grand Final against the Swans.
The 2016 Grand Final could go either way as we’ve seen the last two Grand Finals become blowouts at half-time. We’re predicting a low scoring contest in 1-39 winning margin market as both teams pride themselves on defensive pressure.
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In the end, Bet for Free is tipping the Swans by 6 points to win the 2016 AFL Grand Final.