Unless there are changes in law and/or government policy, the Ministry of Justice predicts there will be 700 boys incarcerated in young offender institutions every year between 2016 and 2020. Latest data shows there were 682 boys in young offender institutions in September 2015.
The official predictions mean England will continue to be one of the leading child incarcerators in the Western world. In 2013, the annual Council of Europe survey of prison populations in 47 member states found England and Wales was surpassed by only two countries, Russia and Turkey, in the number of children we imprison.
The annual prison population projections also predict girls will continue to be held in other settings, and that the number of female inmates aged 18-20 years will reduce by halve between 2016 and 2020 (from 200 to 100). No change is anticipated for males in this age group.
Read the official predictions here.