GOLD – I posted this in the comments, just showing how GOLD does not want to sell off, it has formed a triangle so far.
GOLD #1 – I have stated in the past that ‘TRIANGLES’ usually mess up daily cycle counts, so I just focus on what is in front of me. At this point, it is a Bull flag chewing away at consolidation on the far left ( May / June trading). I would have expected a back test of the 50 & 200sma, but so far it just wont sell down.
GOLD – We are in the APEX, so this has to break up or down now. Breaking down would break the blue trend line, and usually that is what we see as a dcl, so look for a break of the blue trend line, and a reversal higher may indicate a dcl. Honestly though, I ignore cycles when triangles form & Bullishness persists.
SILVER 20 sma – Let’s see if the 20 sma acts as support, price did not break the 20sma on the run higher in November.
GDX – My current thoughts : I know that GDX held the 200 sma lately, but is it a mini bear flag? I think that this can drop to the 50sma. Notice – It is under the 10sma, the 10sma is curled down, and I would normally expect a break of the blue trend line. So I’m still watching for a tag or break of the 50sma. IF THIS BREAKS OUT HIGHER above the 10sma, you can simply ‘adjust to that’ and Buy it with a tighter stop under the 200sma, or a loose one under the 50sma. .
HBM – HBM has been running with strong volume from there, and the Metals still seem to be basing and Bullish.
CLF – Crawling under the 50sma, this looks ready to pop higher soon. I would buy this , AKS, X, or many of these below with a stop in a reasonable place , in case of any bed news releases. Hold a small basket of stocks for safety or start with smaller positions.
AKS – This is also crawling sideways and looks ready to pop soon. Read the chart. So keep your eye on your watchlist of X, CENX, AA, VALE, TGB, WRN, ETC.
ZEUS broke out yesterday, as a possible leader, so watch X, AKS, etc.
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USD DAILY – This was July 15 and if you read the chart, I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop. Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.
GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES. I really have. Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy. This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.
You will read many reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’, ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.
COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.
GOLD DAILY – Gold put in a reversal on Friday. Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping. That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.
CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY – FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.
1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.
SILVER WEEKLY – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.
GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold. THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.
GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.
And then you have the Miners, which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off. I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.
GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?
Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the Miners that may still be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL. Then our weekend wrap up is finished.
TRX – When I say Jim Sinclair, what do you think of? Yes, Gold. 🙂 I have owned Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.
DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.
MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports. It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%. The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows, it is bullish, even though GOLD is at 1 year lows.
EGO WEEKLY – I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows, that is also Bullish action, not bearish.
I AM BULLISH. MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY. Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too. We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday. On top of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.
The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks, I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week! We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not GOLDS LOWS are in place. It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.
SIDENOTE: Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.
AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too. I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see X, CLF, CLD.
CLF – CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.
UUUU – 3 weeks ago, UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated. Others did this also.
UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.
The Theme picture here speaks a thousand words. At Chartfreak, we've covered plenty of bullish set ups in the General Markets like TWTR, SQ, AMD, CREE, CY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc. over the past few months, but in addition to that, I have recently been very focused on the current set up in the Precious Metals Sector. For the public, I want to share what we have been doing with that here.
We have been tracking Gold, Silver, and especially Miners with focus for the past couple of Months. I have been expecting a deep sell off into a Cycle Low that will lead into an excellent buying opportunity. Interestingly, even though I have expected a deep sell off into that ICL (Intermediate Cycle Low), I started recommending buying at least some Miners weeks ago, because something interesting was taking place. Unlike the prior bear market sell offs, where Miners crashed down as Gold sold off, I noticed several Miners appeared to very strong. They seemed to be under accumulation, despite Golds sell off.
Take a look at KL for example. New 2018 highs occurred while Gold was selling off over the past few weeks. In fact, it has almost doubled in 2018.
Did you notice GORO? I have been pointing this kind strength out for Months now, but many are still afraid of this sector. This sell off in Gold has fooled many into believing that "Gold is dropping and Miners are dangerous." I got emails to that affect, but charts do not lie and my daily reports have been sharing many bullish factors that go unnoticed at times.
So I've decided to show portions of my last 2 weekend reports combined together here for the Public to take advantage of.
JANUARY 2017 – WHAT TIME IS IT?
It's time to see what 2017 has to offer us as traders and investors!
We've started the new year and trading has already been very exciting in various sectors that we at Chartfreak have been looking into. So 'What time is it?' It's also time to get on board and make some money in a variety of bullish set ups that are appearing in the markets! This is a glimpse what we have been looking at lately.
GOLD - I love deep sell offs, because they can lead to strong bounces or recovery. We were waiting for a close above the 10sma. Some Miners bottomed first, but Gold needed to close above the 10sma to start a bullish move higher.
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Precious Metals – Alive Or Dead?
I see a lot of people have started absolutely hating Precious Metals and Miners in recent weeks, and that is understandable. Gold, Silver, and the Miners have taken a dive, especially since the recent Election results in the U.S. They cannot seem to catch a bid, and each reversal just doesn't seem to stick, even though Oil and Metals like Steel, Aluminum, and Copper rocketed higher.
We have to ask: Is the Bull dead or Alive in this sector?
Here at Chartfreak, we have been discussing this extensively throughout the past several weeks. I'd like to open up a portion of the weekend report from Dec 4th, along with a few charts from earlier reports, to show how we have been monitoring these areas. Enjoy.
As of Nov 18th, GDX was already at an important Fib retracement of 61.8%, so we looked for the sell off to stop in this area.
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Have you ever been driving along using your GPS and you decide that maybe you're going to take a short cut to your destination? The GPS detects that you have left the designated course and immediately needs to compensate by announcing, "Recalculating Route!". Well last week sectors of the markets took sharp detours right after the elections. Using over 50 charts, this weekend report will discuss the road we find ourselves on now.
SPX - Nov 1st , Expecting a trade-able ICL, maybe in the 2070 area.
Are You Shopping For Your Favorite Miners?
Sometimes it is not enough to go shopping when things are on sale, we all like to get the rock bottom prices. In the Precious Metals sector we caught the lows in Mid January and at the end of May, when they experienced a serious sell off. Looking for certain signs of a bottom, we started to see it as it was approaching. As you probably know, the Precious Metals sector has again been caught up in a deep sell off. Here at Chartfreak we’ve been expecting this, as seen in my public posts as well as my premium posts. I had been mentioning as far back as July and August that we should be looking for a deep correction and then a trade-worthy bottom, likely at the end of September or October. Will this sell off continue, or are we near the bottom? Lets look at some of the charts from my weekend report and see what we’ve been looking at! We’ll skip right to the Precious Metals section.
The COT levels are back where they were in May at that Deep trade-able low (ICL), and GOLD is now late in the ‘daily timing’ for a cycle low, so this starts to look good.
GOLD – Golds did not have a proper swing low in place as of Friday, but we do see signs of bottoming. Daily cycles do not extend much further than 25 -30 days, and we see that a low formed on day 25 so far. That means that Friday was either Day 30 of this sell off daily cycle or day 5 of a new daily cycle and lows could be in place at $1243.20. Follow through higher above 1267.60 places a swing low in place.
SILVER – Silver has a proper swing low, but it is not really ‘confirmed’ yet. I want to see a break above the 10sma as follow through.
And there you go, twins. Easy to buy, right? No. 🙂 On this chart I got 1 ‘buy’ signal that triggered Wednesay using an indicator that I developed over time (the lower section).
GDX OCT 12th – This system that I developed years ago triggered a ‘buy’ on Oct 12th ( see the lower section). It is at times scary, because it often triggers before a strong move higher. In the past it has been very accurate. Again, the progress since this Oct 12th chart is seen on the above chart in the lower section.
GDX – This points out that Day 27 was either the low and we saw Day 3 on Friday, or if we drop 1 more time, we extend this daily cycle to the limits. That in mind, I believe that any drop would be a shake out and then rebound.
Please recall that back on Oct 6th , I said that $22.08 was a measured move that is possible too, but not necessary. It also leads to a back test of that orange channel, but notice that we did back test that already in the May sell off. So another quick slam down and recovery is still possible, but that tag of that blue channel is usually enough in a bull market sell off. This sell off should be finishing up.
I used this chart in a report last week to show that the GDX:GOLD ratio was turning up. I wrote in the middle of this chart that a cross of the 8sma is a buy for some technical traders, but I find it a bit risky and not a low risk buy when used all by itself. We did not have a cross over yet at that point.
GDX:$GOLD UPDATE : We got that cross over. If Gold drops or Miners rise faster than Gold, we get the cross over. Monday we will look to see if this holds or gives way.
EDIT: This is Mondays chart, the cross over the blue line held and it looks like it back tested. This shows us that even though GOLD hadn’t places a proper swing low in place, Miners are leading.
WEEKEND REPORT CONCLUSION: We are waiting for a confirmed swing low and a push higher. Oil and NATGAS remain bullish, but I sold my energy positions to focus on the Precious metals. We are deep into the timing for a low in Gold, Silver, and Miners, and I think that this is where some nice gains will be made next. I expect a run higher very soon, and I will cover set ups and entries in Miners when those lows are confirmed.
Are you ready to go shopping in the precious metals sector? Back in May 2016 at the lows, we entered what I considered to be low risk bullish set ups in VGZ, MUX, and TRX and these ran up 100-250% in 2 months! Why not sign up at chartfreak and add this analyses to your own method of trading. If this run is anything like the run we saw out of the January lows or the May lows, 1 trade will more than pay for your monthly or quarterly membership. In Monday evenings report, I discussed a few Miners that had low risk set ups.
Chart Freak members receive up to 5 premium reports per week covering a wide array of markets, as this public post illustrates. Come and join the ChartFreak community as we trade the new Gold Bull Market and various trending sectors.
People have asked me, “Does the BPGDM have to drop further like in Aug 2015”? No, not if we are in a re-newed bull market.
In the summer 2015, Miners were TRASHED and the BPGDM was about as low as it gets, then some Miners started to recover before the GDX lows were really in place. So when we were looking for the LOWS in GDX last year ( they actually came in mid January 2016) BPGDM was rising, not falling. Some Miners were already being accumulated BEFORE THE ICL.
Look at the MAY 2016 ICL. If someone says that the BPGDM has to drop lower now, before an ICL can be in place, then why did it hold up so well at the May ICL? We are already lower than the May ICL, isnt that enough? We are almost at the January 2015 ICL level (but we do not have to go there).
Currently, the BPGDM has dropped as much as it needs to to remove bullish sentiment. Many people are no longer interested in ‘taking a chance on Miners’. THAT IS BULLISH.
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Note: This post is an except from a nightly member only report.
SPX - Not much has changed over the past several days, but consolidations often lead to strong moves.