Don Leavens used a scenario approach to analyze current conditions in the electroindustry.
He commented that of the three scenarios, the Goldilocks scenario was the most likely. He noted that by watching several economic variables over the course of the next year, the audience could determine which of the growth scenarios was occurring. A downturn in construction and a reversal in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy were signs the economy could be heading towards recession. Higher productivity and acceleration in economic growth would herald the Animal Spirits scenario. Meanwhile, a steady progression in interest rate hikes and continued modest construction growth would be signs the economy might be levelling to a sustainable pace featured in the Goldilocks scenario.