Forecasting and Short-Term Financial Planning Chapter 12.
2 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-2 Learning Objectives 1.Understand the sources and uses of cash that are used in building a cash budget. 2.Explain how sales forecasts are used to predict cash inflow. 3.Understand how production costs vary in terms of cash flow timing. 4.Explain possible ways to cover cash deficits and invest cash surplus. 5.Prepare a pro forma income statement and a pro forma balance sheet.
3 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-3 12.1 Sources and Uses of Cash Cash is considered to be the life-blood of a business. Cash shortages can be stifling and expensive while excesses can lead to poor returns. Since most businesses do not function on a pure cash basis, it is critical for them to forecast their needs for cash in advance. The cash budget is the analytical tool that estimates the future timing of cash inflow and cash outflow and projects potential shortfalls and surpluses.
5 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-5 12.1 Sources and Uses of Cash (continued) Identifying all possible sources and uses of cash is essential for preparing a useful cash budget. This list can serve as a guide when preparing a cash budget. Figure 12.1 Cash inflows and cash outflows for a company.
6 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-6 12.2 Cash Budgeting and the Sales Forecast Sales revenue  base variable driving almost all other items in the cash budget,  Must forecast sales as objectively as possible. There is usually a time lag between when a sale is made and when the cash receipts come in  Must keep track of collections time-line. Need internal data (information that is proprietary or unique to the firm) as well as external data (publicly available information) sources for objective sales forecasts.
7 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-7 12.2 Cash Budgeting and the Sales Forecast (continued) Figure 12.2 Marketing data for Bridge Water Pumps and Filters.
8 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-8 12.2 (A) Cash Inflow from Sales Firms typically sell products and services partially for cash and partially on credit. An analysis of a firm’s collection policy can help project cash inflow from sales. It is quite common for firms to collect some of their receivables in the 2 months following the sale, i.e. November 2008’s credit sales will be partially collected in December and January.
10 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-10 12.2 (B) Other Cash Receipts Besides sales, which are the main contributor to a firm’s cash inflow, need to forecast the timing and magnitude of other occasional sources of cash such as – asset sales, –funds raised through issuance and sale of securities, and –income earned on investments (dividends, interest, etc.).
11 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-11 12.3 Cash Outflow from Production The magnitude and timing of the various cash disbursements of a firm depends mainly on forecasted sales. –Payments for raw materials, labor costs, overheads such as utilities and rent, shipping costs, etc. Like sales, there is often a time lag between when the firm receives and records the benefit, and when it actually makes the payment for it. The cash budget can be used as a handy planning document to keep track of the projected disbursements. Depreciation is merely a tax write-off, not a cash disbursement, so should not be included in a cash budgetDepreciation is merely a tax write-off, not a cash disbursement, so should not be included in a cash budget.
14 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-14 12.4 (A) Funding Cash Deficits Cash shortfalls can be handled in 4 ways: 1.Cash from savings 2.Unsecured loans (letters of credit) 3.Secured loans (using accounts receivable or inventories) 4.Other sources (commercial paper, trade credit, or banker’s acceptance).
16 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-16 12.5 Planning with Pro Forma Financial Statements Cash budgeting, is only one aspect of short- term financial planning. Equally important for firms to forecast their operating cash flow and net income for the forthcoming period by developing pro forma financial statements. There are a variety of ways to produce pro forma statements, but the statements usually rely on two primary inputs: –The prior year’s financial statements and the relationship of the account balances to each other, and –The projected sales for the coming year.
17 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-17 12.5 Planning with Pro Forma Financial Statements (continued) The percentage of each item either to sales (income statement) or to total assets (balance sheet) is computed for the prior year and then multiplied by the projected sales (income statement) or total assets (balance sheet) for the coming year to develop pro forma financial statements. –For example, let’s say that the cash balance for the prior year is $2 million and the total assets is $100m. So cash is 2% of total assets. –For the Pro Forma Balance Sheet, we would forecast cash as 2% of the forecasted total assets as well, i.e. if total assets are forecasted to increase by 20%  $120m  Cash would be forecasted to be.02*120m = $24m.
19 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-19 12.5 (A) Pro Forma Income Statement (continued) This approach, -- a good first step, is often too simplistic in reality because many financial statement items do not vary proportionately with sales. In particular, depreciation decreases over time and cost of goods sold often declines due to economies of scale. The manager would have to fine- tune the forecasted values to make them more in line with reality.
20 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-20 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet Each prior year’s balance sheet item is expressed as a percent of total assets, and then multiplied by the forecasted total assets figure for the next period. Items which are obviously either constant each period, or which vary at a different rate (for whatever reason) are accordingly adjusted for by the financial manager. If total assets exceed total liabilities and owner’s equity, external financing is allocated according to some pre-determined ratio to serve as the plug variable.
26 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-26 12.5 (B) Pro Forma Balance Sheet (continued) Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement Finally, the pro forma cash flow statement (Figure 12.7) is prepared to tie together all the changes in operating, investment, and financing cash flows.
28 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-28 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 1 Sales Forecast: You have been asked to forecast sales for the coming year. Being convinced that the compound average growth rate is the best way to forecast growth, you collect data for the prior three years as listed below. Using the data compute the compound growth rate for each of the years and then forecast next year’s sales by using the two-year average growth rate. Year Sales 2009$1,200,000 2010$1,750,000 2011$2,100,000 2012 ?
38 © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.12-38 Additional Problems with Answers Problem 5 (continued) Next year, the firm will increase its Plant, Property, and Equipment (PPE) by $7,000,000 with a plant expansion. The inventories will grow by 70%, but accounts payables will grow by 60%, and marketable securities will be reduced by 50% to help finance the expansion. If all other asset accounts remain the same and long-term debt will be used to finance the remaining costs of the expansion (no change in common stock or retained earnings), prepare a pro forma balance sheet for 2012. How much additional debt will be estimated using this pro forma balance sheet?
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