Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by see_change, 1st Sep, 2014.
I've been accused of being bullish , trying to hype or spruik the sydney market .
However confident I am in my own abilities ( believe me I'm not that confident , those on the forum who know me , know I'm a relatively quiet person ) I don't think I can do that ..
However rather than have people drip feed criticisms against me when ever I " report " an article that it is positive about the Sydney market I will post it here .
I have noticed there is another poster , Richard Feynman , who has been equally guilty as I have , so I've put his name up in the title as well . RF , I hope that's ok with you .
Disclaimer . I own several properties in sydney and at some stage will be selling one while keeping the other five.
The first three articles have been posted elsewhere .
My agenda is I'm watching the Sydney market closely so I can gauge the best time to sell .
Another strong weekend. Good clearance rate (1% down on last week with a whopping 35% more homes sold).
I think spring is going to be a bumper. I also think steady growth will continue for a while.
I've been tracking things pretty closely.
What's wrong with saying it how it is, in fact the smart investors should have, would have been buying when there were early reports on SS of the Sydney market rising.
I would like to know exactly what in Syd is moving, its appears blue chip is now going nuts, does this mean West Syd has now slowed down.
This Syd boom is so different from historical booms, where originally started with inner city blue chip and rippled out to the middle ring/outer suburbs. This property boom started with West Syd, I think in part this was due to immigration and affordability. Any thoughts.
That was mentioned on ABC 24 news this am .
The economic commentator said it was only affecting a minor part of the top end and he didn't see any action occurring . It's not affecting the masses and he thought it was a distraction.
Given many liberal pollies already own houses in this market , I can't see them stopping it .
My observation from the last two months is that most buyers in the > 2 mill market on the north shore are of Asian appearance , South east and southern .
Talking to agents , most are Australian citizens , with only an occasional person going through the FIRB .
In your opinion how far behind Sydney does Brisbane usually trail?
Maybe second half of 2015?
I don't think that's something you can predict accurately . I don't attempt to .
If you watch the market closely you can see it happening . I'm not watching Brisbane closely .
The impact of foreign investors is minimal.
MTR, one thing to note which seems to be playing out is something Andrew Wilson pointed out at a seminar maybe 6 months ago. He called it before the prestige market picked up.
Also said that the strong performance of the share market would stimulate more activity in the high end.
It looks like he was on the money.
The recent lift in median sale prices adds further weight to his call.
So ..... is there anyone recommending Sydney as a good investment now ?
How fare from the peak is it now - another 10% ?
I'd much prefer to buy more in Sydney (even with land tax) but the opportunities all seem elsewhere now.
Can I ask being a novice or you could say a "beginner" how I would go about finding these figures? Id like to some work myself.
Can I ask see change how you go about 'watching' this. What resources and tools do you use?
Id love to learn and be able to understand.
What resources and tools do you use?
Resources : A unique data source. Search the forum. The information about this data source is out there.
Tools: One which has good optical character recognition features and is good for detecting trends and potential buying dips.
Hint: Rixter knows as well.
Id think the major opportunities are elsewhere. Why is Sydney so advanced or so expensive?
I think it really depends where the next lot mining boom happens. Mayne that will be NSW or QLD or SA. Thats where I see the next big movement in housing happening. WA is hitting a slow/tough period. No one can get jobs or its really difficult. Its in a stabalizing period before I think we see a slight decline before we hit something else special. I know iron ore isnt seeming to be as good here as it was expected. Alot of people are getting canned due to the poil potential in the ground.
does this mean West Syd has now slowed down.
Western Sydney is going gangbusters. A lot of the Agents are doing a 'Property Launch". They advertise a new list for a few weeks, do one Open Home (the Launch), and take offers and sell it on the day, sometimes for much higher than the advertised amount.
We went to one place, which was very pretty. The home was really no better than some of the others we'd seen, except it had a lovely outlook onto the pool area. In the 5 mins we were there, I saw around 10 people filling in their written offer forms handed to everyone who attended.
This property was in St Clair, which, according to some of the Agents, is extremely popular due to it's proximity to Erskine Park & the new industrial estate. Lots of huge employers moving in and their workers all want to live closeby.
If I want to find out what is happening in Logan , I'll ring up all the agents and say , " so what's happening in Logan at the moment " .
I'll have already read any posts on the forum , so I'll have the back story set in my mind . eg when the previous boom happened , if there has been a slump since then .
I'll let them talk first but I'll want to find out specific things .
How quickly are things selling , is it getting longer , shorter ?
What's happening with supply ?
Are there more places on the market than a year ago etc ?
I'll ask them what they think is going to happen .
Do this with several agents and a picture will appear . Most agents are honest though a few will exaggerate .
Make notes of all the comments that you get back and use those help guide further questions with the next agents .
An agent who you have a good rapport with will get you a sale that you might otherwise miss oput on.
Of The Vultures likes this.
Historically that has happened with every cycle . Sydney leads , the rest follows .
That's why many forumites where buying in sydney in the last 4-5 years , picking up bargains when the market was not hot .
Business report expressed surprised at the strength of the property market over winter , and sees nothing to see that it will slow down over spring .
Couldn't see any reason why RBA will increase rates any time soon so expect further increases this Spring .
I reckon another 10%-15% is highly probable over the next 18-24 months. But that's not tearaway growth. The next set of quarterly growth data looks like it will show good movement too.
I'm very likely to be buying again in Sydney soon and am expecting steady growth in my areas of interest through the next 18-24 months. However, these are buy and hold purchase with a longterm view so I'm not chasing short term gains (those came over the last year). I'm also going to be purchasing interstate and am not expecting "Sydney" as a whole to perform as well as the pockets I like.
I've seen about 10% on two of my purchases in just 3-4 months in Sydney. That is certainly not sustainable.
I have been accused of much worse with words not far off that.
Human nature deems that what is being communicated isnt going to be seen/heard/felt the same way by all people.