Has the killing in Yugoslavia finally ended, or is the current cease-fire only a pause by tired soldiers to catch their breath?
A Western diplomat in Belgrade is convinced that for all practical purposes, the bloodletting is over.
Across town, in another embassy, the assessment could not have been more different.
Both men acknowledged that any attempt to forecast the future of Yugoslavia is really a matter of studying an extremely cloudy crystal ball. Facts, they say, are not plentiful.
For his part, Yugoslav Defense Minister Veljko Kadijevic expressed a belief last Thursday that the cease-fire would hold.
Kadijevic said he and Presidents Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia and Franjo Tudjman of Croatia ''fully agreed'' at a meeting last Wednesday how to put the cease-fire into effect and establish lasting peace. He gave no details.
Among the diplomats, optimists say the fighting between Serbia and Croatia may be over because the Serbian-led Yugoslav army is disintegrating, the Croatians have proved stronger than expected and both sides recognize the damage to their economies cannot go on.
The pessimists say the fighting will resume because local army commanders no longer listen to their superiors, they and their men have new scores to settle after the recent bloodshed and many Croatian radicals, emboldened by their militias` successes, are convinced they can win back lost territory if they fight for it.
On Saturday, the Yugoslav army accused Croatia of continuing to blockade and attack military bases.
Croatian radio reported fresh rounds of fighting in eastern and central Croatia, forcing the International Red Cross to suspend operations in the rebel republic until it receives guarantees of safety from the warring sides. The Yugoslav army abandoned its barracks last Thursday in the beleaguered Croatian town of Vinkovci, and diplomats said the pullback apparently was a case of a local commander acting independently of his superiors in Belgrade.
optimistic said it could take a year or two to hammer out a settlement, and that was not likely to happen in a setting outside the country.
The fighting of the past week has overturned some old assumptions, they said-including the widespread belief that the Yugoslav army, with its superior firepower, would roll over Croatia with little difficulty.
Another diplomat said: ''The army has an ill-trained, ill-disciplined, poorly motivated set of troops.'' He said army officers in Bosnia have publicly admitted their troops are out of control and have promised to discipline them.
Diplomats said members of a European observer force that has been in the field reported the Croatians have acquired U.S. Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, presumably on the international black market.
They said the Croatians brought down at least a dozen Yugoslav planes.
The Croatians also have obtained highly effective German-made anti-tank missiles and have destroyed many Yugoslav tanks in addition to capturing 100 of them, they said.
Diplomats said more than 2,000 army troops have deserted, and thousands of reservists called up for army duty have refused to report. Many deserted the army, they said, because of poor food and equipment and poor leadership. Others said they were prepared to fight for Serbia, but not outside its borders.
The civil war started in June with declarations of independence by Croatia and Slovenia from the frail Yugoslav federation of six ethnically divided republics.
Diplomats place the total number of people killed in the war at about 2,500.
The Croatians, they said, fielded 150,000 men, against ''tens of thousands'' for the army and 20,000 Serbian militiamen.
A diplomat said atrocities on both sides have deepened hatreds that already were intense. The atrocities, he said, have not been as extensive as the two sides claim, but there have been at least 10 incidents in which people`s eyes have been gouged out and other acts.
''How can they live together now?'' he said.
A diplomat who predicted the fighting would resume said the hatred has now reached a neighbor-to-neighbor level, with people taking revenge for crimes committed against their relatives 50 years ago.
''There are a lot of crazies out there on both sides,'' he said.
Diplomats said there was a possibility the violence would spread to the province of Kosovo, which is inhabited mainly by ethnic Albanians.
The Albanians, whose provincial government was dissolved by the Serbs a year ago, began voting Thursday and continued to vote Saturday in a referendum asking whether people want independence. The results are scheduled to be announced Sunday.
The Serbs promised to block what they call an illegal act. Diplomats said Kosovo is a tinderbox ready to explode at any moment.