Get ready for the upcoming 2016 MLB season with our in-depth previews for all 30 teams, including scout's takes, predicted finishes and more.
The start of the 2016 MLB season is almost here, as all 30 teams are gearing up for the 162 games ahead, including the chase for the playoffs and the World Series. But who will be this year's favorites to win it all, and who will come up short in the quest for a championship?
To get ready for another year of baseball, check out SI.com's individual season previews for all 30 clubs, featuring scouting reports, detailed analysis and more. In each preview, one of SI.com's baseball experts gives the case for and case against each team contending for a title, including the X-factor and number to know for 2016, as well as a scout's takes on the most overrated and underrated player on each roster. Each preview also includes the team's projected finish for the coming season, as we reveal our No. 1 team for 2016. And below, you'll find SI's full projected standings, playoff picks and World Series champion.
Want more exclusive and cutting-edge MLB content? Then pick up a copy of SI's baseball preview issue, now on newsstands; follow SI's MLB coverage on Twitter and Facebook; and subscribe to The Strike Zone podcast, SI.com's weekly discussion of all things baseball.
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 30: the Atlanta Braves.
Deep at the bottom of a rebuild, the Braves are a near lock to post a losing record for the third straight season, forcing them to re-define success for the coming year. One possible positive outcome for 2016—most paradoxically but perhaps also most obviously—would be posting the worst record in baseball, thereby securing the top pick in next year's draft. That would give Atlanta top-three picks in three straight years, as the team traded this off-season for 2015's No. 1 selection, Dansby Swanson, and holds the third pick in this year's draft. That would represent a tremendous influx of elite talent for a farm system raising the expectations for their eventual return to contention in the years to come.
The Braves don’t necessarily need to get the top pick, either. Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Twins centerfielder Byron Buxton were No. 2 picks; Orioles third baseman Manny Machado was a No. 3 selection; and there are those who believe that last year’s third pick, high school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, is a better prospect than Swanson (Baseball Prospectus has Rodgers seven spots ahead of Swanson on its Top 101 prospects list for 2016). Three straight top-three picks would fast track Atlanta back toward a meaningful and potentially lasting contention.
Taking a more conventional approach, the Braves could measure success by the progress made by the players they hope will be a part of that next winning team. On the farm, that means a successful jump to the high minors by Swanson. Sean Newcomb, the potential front-of-the-rotation lefty acquired in the Andrelton Simmons deal, needs to show improved command at Triple A. Slick-fielding shortstop prospect Ozzie Albies needs a good showing at the plate at high A ball, and top 2015 draft picks Austin Riley and Kolby Allard need strong full-season debuts.
At the major league level, righthander Aaron Blair, who came over from the Diamondbacks with Swanson, must make a solid big-league debut. Hector Olivera needs to make a smooth transition to leftfield and prove his ability to hit major league pitching. Arodys Vizcaino has to take over the closer job, likely in the wake of Jason Grilli being dealt at the non-waiver deadline. Julio Teheran must bounce back from a disappointing 2015 campaign. Ender Inciarte needs to improve against lefthanded pitching and establish himself as a quality everyday centerfielder. Freddie Freeman has to turn in a healthy and productive season. If all of those things happen, the Braves may win a few too many games to get that elite draft pick, but they won’t need the consolation prize nearly as much.
The worst thing that could happen to the Braves is that they have a surprisingly successful major league season due to some fluky, last-gasp performances from their veterans. Winning roughly 77 games could drop them out of the top ten in the draft, and their pick subsequently wouldn’t be protected, limiting their ability to make free-agent upgrades for their move to their new ballpark next season.
Winning games because some combination of shortstop Erick Aybar, righthander Bud Norris, catcher A.J. Pierzynski, Grilli, utility man Kelly Johnson, third baseman Gordon Beckham, reliever Jim Johnson, centerfielder Michael Bourn and utility infielder Emilio Bonifacio—all of whom will be free agents at the end of the year—had surprising seasons would be a total disaster for Atlanta. Fortunately for the Braves, that’s extremely unlikely to happen.
Of the players projected to make the Braves’ Opening Day roster, Olivera is the biggest unknown. Signed to a six-year, $62.5 million contract by the Dodgers last May, the Cuban defector (who has five years and $32.5 million remaining on his contract) was acquired by the Braves last July in the three-team,13-player trade that sent lefty Alex Wood and infield prospect Jose Peraza to the Dodgers. Primarily a second baseman in Cuba, Olivera played third base exclusively in his first major league opportunity with the Braves last September but is being moved to leftfield full time this season.
Red flags abound. For starters, Olivera will turn 31 on April 5. Concerns over the state of his right (throwing) elbow prompted the Dodgers to include language in his contract adding a $1 million option for 2021 if he needs Tommy John surgery at any time prior to that season. He has no experience in the outfield, and his bat is unproven. Early scouting reports suggest that the move to left will be a rough one for Olivera and that, while he does have good hand-eye-coordination and the ability to make contact at the plate, he does not have a ton of power and is overly aggressive at the plate; he's unlikely to add to his value by drawing walks. Given that the Braves gave up four years of control over Wood and six over Peraza, they need Olivera to pan out for that trade not to look like a massive blunder, but his ceiling seems limited.
This will be the 20th and final season for the Braves at Turner Field before they move into the new, suburban SunTrust Park next year. That’s significant for many reasons. They will become the first major league team to abandon a stadium built during what can roughly be described as the Bud Selig-era stadium explosion. It also marks the shortest tenure for a major league team in a steel-and-concrete, baseball-only stadium in which they were the initial tenants—not counting the many newer ballparks still in use, all of which are expected to remain in use past their twentieth seasons. After the Braves’ final game in Turner Field on Sunday, Oct. 2, Turner Field will be converted into a football stadium by Georgia State University, which bought the rights to the stadium and the surrounding land in December.
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 27: the Cincinnati Reds.
It's hard to be too optimistic about a team that lost 98 games and traded away its second-best position player, its ace and its closer and lost another key starter to free agency, but here goes. To start, the Reds still have first baseman Joey Votto, who finished third in the NL MVP voting and posted an even 1.000 OPS while leading the league in walks last season. He alone should be worth the price of admission at Great American Ballpark. And Cincinnati saw subtle, if notable, improvement from speedster Billy Hamilton, whose stolen base percentage jumped from 70.9% in 2014 to 87.7% last year, even though he only stole one more base (57, second-best in the Senior Circuit). Hamilton also led NL centerfielders in assists for the second straight year, giving him a potent combination of arm strength and range that could make him a Gold Glove candidate.
The pitching staff boasts a wealth of young, if unproven, arms (more on which below), but if even a couple of those guys turn into above-average starters, the Reds will have the foundation of a quality starting staff. Otherwise, the best sign of a successful season will be seeing how their efforts to rebuild the farm system progress; what kind of success they have in the draft (they hold the No. 2 pick); and, perhaps, whether or not they can play spoiler for the rivals in their loaded division. Last year, the NL Central sent three teams—the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates—to the playoffs. Cincinnati faces those teams, plus the equally woebegone Brewers, in its final 23 games of the season. If the Reds can't go to the postseason, perhaps they can ensure that one or more of their rivals don't get there either.
Last year the Reds ended the longest streak among the four major North American team sports by finishing in last place for the first time in 32 years. It won't take that long for them to finish there again. Off-season trades that sent All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox and All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees not only depleted the talent on the major league club but also didn't do as much as might have been expected to replenish the farm system. Of the seven players who came to Cincinnati in those deals, only one—infielder Jose Peraza, who had been with the Dodgers, the third team involved in the Frazier deal—was considered a top-10 prospect with his former ballclub.
Those deals came on the heels of a mid-summer trade that saw ace Johnny Cueto moved to Kansas City. The Reds almost shipped out another star over the winter, but second baseman Brandon Phillips reportedly used his rights as a 10-and-5 player to block a couple of trades, one that would have sent him to Washington and another that had him ticketed for Arizona. Cincinnati would be wise to try dealing Phillips again during the season, and to do the same with outfielder Jay Bruce. That would make an already bad team even worse, but those players aren't going to be a part of whatever future success there will be in Cincinnati.
The bullpen is also a mess in the wake of Chapman's departure. Righty J.J. Hoover is expected to take over Chapman's role as closer, but he possesses neither his predecessor's fearsome fastball nor his track record of success. Hoover has just five saves in his first four major league seasons, and he saw a decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his strikeouts per nine that indicate he won't be able to rely, as Chapman did, on pure stuff to lock down games.
Hard as it is to believe, Bailey is still just 29 years old. A one-time top-10 draft pick by the Reds back in 2004, he didn't make 30 starts in a season at the major league level until four years ago. At his best, he was good enough to throw two no-hitters, rank seventh in the NL in strikeouts in 2013 and for the Reds to sign him to a six-year, $105 million contract before the '14 season. Since then, however, he's made only 25 starts, just two of which came last year before he was shut down and underwent Tommy John surgery.
Bailey should be back in the rotation before the All-Star break, by which time it's likely the Reds will be long buried in the standings, but his return will be more about seeing what the team can expect from him in the back half of that contract. If he's good, he could provide the rotation anchor Cincinnati so desperately needs; if he's very good, he might even become a possible trade option, if not in 2016 then perhaps sometime in the next year or so. Barring an unexpected turnaround in the Reds' fortunes, they would surely love to get out from under the $63 million he's owed in guaranteed money from 2017 to '19.
That's how many consecutive starts were made by rookie pitchers for Cincinnati to end last season, a major league record. Overall, the Reds gave the ball to a first-year pitcher in 110 games, the second-highest number in major league history. With Mike Leake traded to the Giants at last year’s deadline and the aforementioned Bailey still recovering from Tommy John surgery, Cincinnati will again be forced to call upon those same pitchers to carry its rotation.
Anthony DeSclafani, a righthander who turns 26 in mid-April, had the best season of the bunch and should be in line for an improvement over his 9–13 record and 4.05 ERA. It's harder to know what to expect from Raisel Iglesias (3–7, 4.15 ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (4–9, 5.40). The most intriguing option might be Brandon Finnegan, who made a name for himself as a key bullpen option for the Royals during their run to the 2014 World Series just a few months after he'd pitched in the College World Series for TCU. Traded to Cincinnati in the Cueto deal last July, Finnegan got the first four starts of his major league career, and though he still fared far better coming out of the bullpen (2.67 ERA, .597 OPS against) than as a starter (4.71, .847), he has a versatile enough offering of pitches (particularly a developing changeup) that the team sees him as an option. The Reds will certainly have the luxury of being patient with all of their young arms, and they can afford to figure out exactly which roles work best for which players as they begin building for their next run at contention.
"I hate to throw Joey Votto under the bus, he just is what he is, but I wish he would drive in more runs—or lead them off. There’s your on base guy."
"He’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete. I think he’s going to be a good starting pitcher."
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 24: the Los Angeles Angels.
Any team that has Mike Trout is bound to stumble upon some degree of success, but the presence of one phenom on a roster is never enough to carry an entire team (see: the 2015 Nationals). The four-time All Star has put in MVP-caliber work every year since his first full season with the Angels in 2012—including his lone win in '14—but postseason success in that period has been sparse to nonexistent. In 2014, Los Angeles finished with baseball's best record but was swept out of the ALDS by the Royals—its only trip to October so far with Trout. Last year, the Angels finished with the best record of teams that didn’t make the playoffs, and a wild-card berth dangled just out of their grasp until the season’s final days. Trout, catcher Carlos Perez and then-third baseman David Freese all did their part by hitting over .300 in the season’s final month, but the rest of the starting lineup hit a collective .233, and the Halos missed the second wild-card spot by just one game. The theme of Trout receiving little backup at the plate was present throughout the Angels' entire season, and that will be the crux of whether Los Angeles can max out its present potential in 2016.
Despite Trout’s best efforts, the team’s season slash line of .246/.307/.396 sat at the bottom of the AL, and Los Angeles' 4.1 runs per game ranked 20th. The Angels will need more consistent production from prolific but aging first baseman Albert Pujols, who hit .244/.307/.480 in 2015 but reminded us he isn’t an old man quite yet by clubbing 40 home runs in his climb up the all-time leader board. In the best case scenario for the Angels, new additions Andrelton Simmons and Yunel Escobar turn in career years at the plate; Pujols defies age and injury once again; Kole Calhoun, Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry do an above-average job at flanking Trout in the outfield; and the rotation behind righty ace Garrett Richards keeps the Angels in games. But without making many improvements in the areas they were lacking—catcher, second base, leftfield, designated hitter—it will be tough to contend in the AL West against the offense-heavy Rangers, the rebuilt Astros and the overhauled Mariners.
The prognosis looks grim for Los Angeles. Missing a playoff berth by so little was disheartening, but the Angels may not even come that close this year. Acquiring a second baseman, corner outfielder and starting pitcher could have turned this team into a powerhouse, but instead, the Halos will be entreating the baseball gods with prayers for uncharacteristically productive seasons from every player on their roster just to give them hope for a wild-card spot.
At second base, the Angels will stick with Johnny Giavotella despite his middling offense (96 OPS+) and awful defense (-12 Defensive Runs Saved) last year. In left, the duo of Nava (.194/.315/.245 in 166 plate appearances for the Red Sox and Rays) and Gentry (six hits in 26 forgettable games for the A's) will form arguably the least productive platoon in the majors. Barring a miracle or a midseason change, those positions will be persistent black holes for the Angels' offense—and that doesn't include the equally problematic options at designated hitter (C.J. Cron, 106 OPS+), catcher (Perez, 82 OPS+) and shortstop (Simmons, 86 OPS+). As it stands, Trout, Calhoun and Pujols are the only above-average regulars in Los Angeles' lineup; they will have to carry an incredibly heavy load.
Things aren't much better on the mound. The Angels' pitching hung near average in 2015 with a 3.94 ERA, and no significant acquisitions were made to improve the ailing starting rotation, most of which will be found in the training room rather than on the mound come Opening Day. Their starters (3.98 ERA) did a good job of limiting hits (.247 opponent's batting average) but gave away the second-most free passes in the AL (303 walks). The bullpen was average (3.86 ERA), though it benefited from a nearly full season from closer Huston Street, who was shut down in September with a groin injury, missing the final nine games of the season. Street has a long and unpleasant history of injuries, and the Angels' bullpen behind him would struggle to pick up the slack if he goes down for any significant length.
With C.J. Wilson and Tyler Skaggs already set to begin the season on the disabled list (Wilson is out indefinitely with a shoulder problem and Skaggs is recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Jered Weaver potentially not far behind as he deals with degenerative changes in his vertebrae, the stage has been set for Heaney, a 24-year-old lefthander, to emerge as a leader in the rotation. Heaney owns a 4.00 ERA over two career seasons but showed promise in the 18 starts he made for the Angels last year. He finished with a 6–4 record and a 3.49 ERA, and his 1.7 WAR was just a tenth of a point behind those of Richards and All-Star Hector Santiago in the rotation. He will likely follow those two in the order again, and the Angels will rely heavily on him to pitch up to his prospect potential while the rest of their pitching staff mends.
"You've got a fifth outfielder you're considering to be an everyday player. At that position you're expecting power numbers. He has not performed at that level."
"He just keeps getting better. Playing with the best player on the planet, I think people miss how much damage he’s doing there next to Trout."
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 23: the Colorado Rockies.
On the heels of a 94-loss season, the Rockies didn't make any high-impact moves, and they're no threat to win the NL West. Still, that's not to say that they'll be completely unwatchable or incapable of producing some level of success this year. For one thing, they've got one of the game's elite defenders in Nolan Arenado, a spectacular third baseman who has won three Gold Gloves in three years and led the league in both homers (42) and RBIs (130) in 2015 as well. For the moment at least, they've got a healthy Carlos Gonzalez coming off career highs in games played (153) and homers (40), though with two years remaining on his contract, the team would be well-served by marketing him for a trade this summer.
Perhaps the most interesting facet of the roster is the quartet of young pitchers—Jonathan Gray, Eddie Butler, Jordan Lyles and Tyler Matzek—who are all in their age-25 seasons or younger. Sure, they've taken their lumps in the big league thus far; all but Matzek have career ERAs above 5.00, and Matzek has the additional challenge of dealing with an anxiety issue that remains unresolved. All four are former first-round (or supplemental first-round) picks who since being drafted have each spent multiple seasons on top prospect lists, cracking the top 50 at some point before getting their rude introduction to the majors. They won't all pan out to the same extent, and keeping them healthy has been a challenge thus far, but if the team hits on a couple of those pitchers, respectability may not be far away.
Last year was the Rockies' fifth straight below .500 and third out of the last four with at least 94 losses. Over that span, only the Astros have had a worse record, and they're coming off a 2015 playoff appearance, with a full season from AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Correa on tap. Colorado has a strong farm system, but the team doesn't have that kind of organizational savior on the way. The Rockies also didn't add anyone this winter who will make them particularly more compelling to watch, unless subbing in Gerardo Parra for Corey Dickerson, Jake McGee for Rex Brothers, or Jason Motte for John Axford moves the needle for you (if it does, seek help). It may be that general manager Jeff Bridich has a plan for how to build a winner at high altitude, but so far, the best that can be said for his tenure is that it's still early, as he took over in October 2014.
Between the aforementioned young pitchers and grizzled 35-year-old staff ace Jorge De La Rosa is Bettis, a soon-to-be-27-year-old righty coming off a breakout 2015 season. A second-round pick out of Texas Tech back in 2010, he grazed prospect lists in '12 before missing all of that season due to a rotator cuff injury, and his exposure to the big leagues in '13–14—a total of 69 1/3 innings, with a 6.88 ERA and 5.14 FIP—was not positive.
But after beginning his 2015 season at Triple A Albuquerque, Bettis pitched well enough to be promoted to the majors in mid-May. Aside from a 10-run drubbing by the Angels on July 7 and a five-week stint on the disabled list due to elbow inflammation, he was a pleasant surprise, pitching to a 4.23 ERA (110 ERA+) and 3.85 FIP in 115 innings. Among the nine pitchers who made at least nine starts for the team, both his 0.7 homers per nine and his 7.7 strikeouts per nine ranked second. As Baseball Prospectus 2016 noted, "Bettis did a better job consistently burying his slider low and away to righthanders, giving him two secondary pitches (the changeup is the other) that drew whiffs 20% of the time and produced two grounders for every three balls put in play."
Extending that encouraging 20-start performance across a full season is no small challenge, particularly given that Bettis's elbow troubles probably had something to do with ramping up his workload (he threw just 80 innings in 2014). If he can pull it off, however, he'll lessen the pressure on the younger pitchers, a group that also includes Tyler Chatwood, who despite having just turned 26 is coming off his second Tommy John surgery.
As in "To Be Determined," the length of Jose Reyes's suspension under the game's new domestic violence policy. The 32-year-old shortstop, who was acquired from the Blue Jays in the Troy Tulowitzki blockbuster in late July, was arrested in Hawaii last Halloween on charges of domestic abuse; his wife reportedly suffered injuries to her neck, face and leg. Reyes pled not guilty and is scheduled to go to trial on April 4. Commissioner Rob Manfred, who has not yet imposed a suspension in this case, placed him on paid administrative leave as of Feb. 23 and will make his decision as to further discipline upon the completion of the case. Given Aroldis Chapman's 30-game suspension for an incident in which no charges were actually filed, it's reasonable to assume that unless the facts of the case differ considerably from what has been reported thus far, Reyes will receive a longer ban.
As to what the Rockies do without Reyes, 23-year-old prospect Trevor Story, who hit .279/.350/.514 with 20 homers split between Double and Triple A, is viewed by some as needing more seasoning before he can claim a major league job. While there's no real reason to start his service clock before he's ready, he’s made a strong impression thus far this spring, and the odds of him making the team have increased even further with the news of Daniel Descalso’s fractured left hand.
The 29-year-old Descalso and 24-year-old Cristhian Adames are the top alternatives to Story. Descalso has five-plus major league seasons under his belt and has shown that he's a terrible hitter (.238/.309/.339 overall, including .205/.283/.324 for a 55 OPS+ in 209 plate appearances last year) for whom shortstop is a stretch (-19 Defensive Runs Saved in 999 1/3 innings there, around two-thirds of a season). Adames has just 33 games and 73 plate appearances in the majors; he hit .311/.362/.438 with 11 homers at Albuquerque last year, but beyond those altitude-inflated stats, his profile is that of a defense-first utility man who's probably a better bet for shortstop. He's out of options, which could work in his favor to start the year as well, assuming Reyes isn't available.
"The trade for him was confusing. It doesn’t solve the all-lefthanded outfield problem, and at this stage of his career, he’s really more of a good platoon guy. And the guy they gave up [Dickerson] had a higher ceiling offensively. It just didn’t make sense with any type of long-term plan.​"
​"He’s really settling in for two reasons: He finally has a defined role after bouncing back and forth as a reliever and a starter, and the club helped fix his delivery this time last year. I think he’s going to be the guy they wanted when they drafted him.​"
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 22: the San Diego Padres.
Change can sometimes be a good thing. Certainly that wasn’t the case for last year’s Padres, even with many calling general manager A.J. Preller the champion of the off-season after he made numerous high-profile moves that ultimately didn’t end with winning results. But after underperforming last season, San Diego could finish higher in the standings than many predict if the team can find a groove and get career years from several players.
The real question is whether that can happen with the roster the Padres currently have. There are a few potential difference makers on the team. Rightfielder Matt Kemp, who rebounded from a slow start with a fantastic second half (.868 OPS after the All-Star break), could be vital for the Padres if he can provide a consistent performance throughout the year. San Diego also dealt with an injured Wil Myers last season and the lack of a regular shortstop; Myers is back and healthy to man first base, and Alexei Ramirez will take over as the everyday starter at short after getting released by the White Sox.
As they did last year, the Padres will enter the season with a roster that looks markedly different from the previous year's edition, but whereas 2015 was about trying to build a contender on the fly, '16 will be simply about rebuilding. Gone is leftfielder Justin Upton, who led the team in home runs with 26 and is now with the Tigers. Also departed: righthander Ian Kennedy, first baseman Yonder Alonso and second baseman Jedd Gyorko. The latter three won't be missed much, but San Diego failed to replace Upton's power this winter, leaving a sizable hole in the middle of what is already a thin lineup.
The pitching rotation for the Padres could also be problematic. Although James Shields and Ross are reliable, the bottom half of the rotation is still in the works. At this point, it looks like righthanders Brandon Maurer and Colin Rea and lefty Robbie Erlin could be filling those spots. Maurer, who served as the Padres' setup man last season, is 4–12 with a 6.62 ERA in his career as a starter. He also last pitched on Aug. 9 and was shut down for the season after dealing with shoulder inflammation. Rea made his major league debut in 2015 and tallied six solid starts, going 2–2 and striking out 26 in 32 2/3 innings, but he's never thrown more than 139 innings in a season. All three pitchers will likely face some growing pains in their starting roles, and San Diego lacks veteran options should they falter.
If the Padres do find themselves in close games, the bullpen situation could be brutal. San Diego traded away closer Craig Kimbrel, who recorded 39 saves last season, and setup reliever Joaquin Benoit. Even with Kimbrel and Benoit, San Diego’s bullpen struggled last season, accumulating a 4.02 ERA, which ranked 13th in the NL. It's hard to imagine that number improving without those two.
Dealing with a wrist injury throughout the season, Myers was unable to contribute the way the Padres had hoped after the team acquired him from the Rays for top prospect Trea Turner. Myers played in just 60 games for San Diego last season, spending prolonged stints on the disabled list. Myers did contribute when healthy, hitting .253/.336/.427 for a 114 OPS+ in 253 plate appearances, but those stats were still a far cry from his Rookie of the Year-winning form in 2014.
With the addition of former Cardinals centerfielder Jon Jay, Myers will move out of the outfield and over to first base, and with Upton gone, he'll be counted on as a potential run producer in the middle of the Padres' lineup. Now 25 years old and entering his fourth season, Myers’s experience and growth as a player will be crucial for San Diego. If he is able to stay healthy, he could provide the kind of impact the Padres need to return to contention.
"The guy that’s the puzzle is Andrew Cashner. For throwing as hard as he does, he just can’t get through five innings. I saw a game where he had 96 pitches in 3 1/3 innings. His fastball moves, it’s 95–96 [mph], [but] when things go wrong, he doesn’t handle it well. He should be better."
"Wil Myers has been hurt, but he has real power. We loved him in high school. He can run. And he said he likes first base."
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 21: the Minnesota Twins.
In their first year under manager Paul Molitor, the Twins snapped a streak of four straight seasons with at least 92 losses and remained in the AL wild card hunt until the second-to-last day of the season. This time around, they'll go wire-to-wire with both righthander Ervin Santana, who missed the first 80 games of last season due to a PED suspension, and new rightfielder Miguel Sano, who bopped 18 homers in 80 games as a rookie. They might also get a full season of Byron Buxton, the consensus No. 2 prospect in the game and the likely Opening Day centerfielder given the trade of Aaron Hicks, with holdover Eddie Rosario (who's entering his age-24 season) and newcomer John Ryan Murphy (entering his age-25 season) augmenting the youth movement. Meanwhile, veteran Joe Mauer—whose production has sagged in two seasons since moving to first base—is using sunglasses to help combat vision problems that have lingered since the 2013 concussion that ended his catching career.
As for the pitching, the rotation can look forward to the arrival of righty Jose Berrios (one of the game's top prospects) at some point in the season, though he’ll start the year in the minors and will have to force his way to the Twin Cities given the depth of the rotation. Barring injuries, that starting five will consist of Santana, righties Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Tyler Duffey and either southpaw Tommy Milone or veteran righty Ricky Nolasco. In the bullpen, Glen Perkins should be able to resume closer duties after a bulging disc in his neck contributed to an 8.22 ERA in 7 2/3 innings in September, with power arms Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May in support.
Last year's Twins were a lousy offensive team, ranking dead last in the league in on-base percentage (.305) and in the bottom four in both batting average and slugging percentage (.247 and .399, respectively). Sano (146 OPS+) was the only player substantially above league average, with six regulars or part-timers in the 95–104 range, all but one of whom (Hicks) is returning. Buxton has tremendous upside, but he struggled mightily (.209/.250/.326 in 138 plate appearances) in his first exposure to major league pitching, and Rosario's 7.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and .289 OBP were both appalling. At least to start the season, it appears that Murphy will take a back seat to Kurt Suzuki, who's not only a poor hitter but also one of the game's worst pitch framers.
As ever, the Twins will struggle to miss bats. The team ranked last in the league in strikeouts, with back-rotation candidates Duffey and Nolasco the only ones to whiff even 7.0 per nine; Perkins, Jepsen and May were the only relievers who topped 8.0 per nine. Fewer missed bats mean more balls in play, and that isn't necessarily a plus for a team that was tied for the league's fourth-worst defensive efficiency mark (.687) and tied for third worst in Defensive Runs Saved (-21). The potential improvement offered by a full-time Buxton could be offset at least somewhat by the learning curve that Sano must scale in rightfield, though to be fair, Torii Hunter was rather brutal there (-8 DRS) in his final season before retirement.
Hughes was a revelation in his first year in Minnesota, setting career bests with a 3.52 ERA in 209 2/3 innings and leading the league in both home run rate (0.7 per nine) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (11.6, a record). The Twins were so happy with his performance that they converted the final two years of his initial three-year, $24 million deal into a new five-year, $58 million deal. While his salary was still a comparatively modest $9.2 million in 2015, he wasn't exactly a bargain.
Between tinkering with his repertoire and arm slot, losing five weeks in August and September due to a back injury and shedding around two mph in velocity, Hughes was a different pitcher. In just 155 1/3 innings, he led the league in homers allowed (29, a rate of 1.7 per nine), and his strikeout rate plummeted from 8.0 per nine to 5.4. His ERA rose by nearly a run to 4.40, and his FIP rose by more than two runs, from 2.65 to 4.70; meanwhile, his Wins Above Replacement sank from 4.3 to 1.8. Had he replicated that 2014 season, the Twins would have been within a whisker of the second wild-card spot, as the Astros finished just three wins ahead.
Which Hughes will the Twins get? The question is all too familiar to Yankees fans, for sure. Like Josh Beckett and Bruce Bochy's Giants, Hughes has fallen into a pattern of being good in even-numbered years (averaging 192 innings, a 3.94 ERA and 2.7 WAR in 2010, '12 and '14) and lousy in odd ones (averaging 125 innings, a 4.98 ERA and 0.4 WAR in '11, '13 and '15). To his credit, he showed up to camp having lost a reported 15–18 pounds, but it's too early to tell whether he can reclaim the mantle of staff ace. Obviously, the Twins' chances of contending are much better if he does.
That's Mauer's rate of ground balls to fly balls in 2015, a career high and well above his career mark of 1.99. Unfortunately, that's not a good thing at all, because Mauer's inability to get the ball off the ground translated into a career-worst .265/.338/.380 line and a 96 OPS+, the first time in his 12 seasons that he'd been below league average. On the 275 ground balls that Mauer put into play, he hit just .207 and slugged .215, lacking enough mustard even to meet his career marks of .248 and .258, respectively. On the 206 line drives and fly balls he produced, however, he hit .483 and slugged .811—numbers right in line with his career marks (.487 and .813, respectively).
This week, SI.com is previewing all 30 MLB teams for the 2016 season, counting down to the No. 1 team in the league. At No. 20: the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have been aggressive the last two off-seasons, clearly laboring under the illusion that they were just a few key players away from a return to contention. I haven’t shared that optimism, but I understand its source. They do indeed possess a trio of elite players in key roles—Chris Sale as The Ace, Jose Abreu as The Bat, David Robertson as The Closer—and have some valuable complementary pieces in centerfielder Adam Eaton and No. 2 starter Jose Quintana. I wasn’t terribly enthusiastic about Chicago’s addition of righthander Jeff Samardzija (since departed as a free agent), outfielder Melky Cabrera and Robertson (whom I saw as lipstick on a pig) last winter. But this off-season’s new additions—third baseman Todd Frazier and second baseman Brett Lawrie—represent more essential and significant upgrades (as detailed below).
With those two in place, you can follow the train of logic that might lead the White Sox to believe they can contend this season. If Cabrera, who hit .309/.351/.458 (125 OPS+) from 2011 to '14, can bounce back from his lousy South Side debut, that should boost the offense. Avisail Garcia taking that long-awaited big step forward in his age-25 season would help even more. Chicago's new catching tandem of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro must make up with its bats what it will take away with its gloves. Adam LaRoche’s surprise retirement, meanwhile, could prove to be a blessing in disguise if it allows the White Sox to upgrade their outfield defense by using Austin Jackson with regularity in the corners.
In the rotation and bullpen, more optimism is required. Carlos Rodon must fix his control problems and pitch like the front-of-the rotation horse his draft position in 2014 (No. 3 overall) suggests he should be. Chicago also needs to hope that Erik Johnson really did fix his mechanics; that John Danks or Mat Latos can turn back the clock; that righty setup man Nate Jones can stay healthy; and that the rest of the bullpen can pitch more like they did in 2014 than in '15.
The White Sox overhauled their catching situation this off-season, non-tendering Tyler Flowers, allowing Geovany Soto to depart as a free agent and signing Navarro and Avila to take their places. The hope is that they will get more production at the plate from their new tandem, but I think they should have paid more attention to the performances they were likely to get behind the dish. Flowers was the best pitch framer in the AL last year according to Baseball Prospectus’ numbers, saving 16.7 runs with his framing alone—a contribution worth nearly two full wins—and Soto was close to average at -0.6 framing runs. Navarro and Avila, however, were a combined 12.1 framing runs below average in 1,463 fewer chances than Flowers had on his own. That’s more than a three-win swing in the wrong direction, and that doesn’t factor in the injury risk associated with Avila, who has a history of concussions (including three in the 2013 and ’14 seasons combined) and arguably shouldn’t be catching any more for his own good.
"This guy made some nice strides last year and has some big upside. But let's calm down anointing him as a future No. 1. Let's see him do it first. He had so much fanfare around him in college, was going to be the top overall pick out of college, but he struggled his junior year for one reason or another. In college, we were concerned there was a problem with his back—he’s not an overly athletic guy, his delivery is not strong and loose, and I still have concerns that he just can't have great command with it. No doubt, his pure stuff is so good that he can get away with it at times—but not at this level. He needs to make more adjustments to reach that upper echelon people think he'll get to. I have my doubts."
"This guy is Mr. Underrated. And he is Exhibit A why wins don’t tell the whole story—he hasn’t won more than 10 games but has three straight 200-inning seasons with an ERA that’s around 3.40. I’ll take that any day. He gets lost in the shuffle behind Chris Sale and now Rodon, too. His fastball doesn't exactly capture your imagination. And he's not going to be on billboards in your city. But he is a No. 2 on most teams. He's done this at one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors. He's signed to one of the better contracts out there, too."