Last year’s Grade 1 Champagne hero Daredevil begins his road to Kentucky Derby 2015 in Saturday’s Grade 2 Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Daredevil won his first two wet track starts at Belmont Park before racing wide and finishing up the track from an outside post in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He must overcome the inside post off a layoff in the Swale and has bigger fish to fry. He is firing bullets for quality layoff trainer Todd Pletcher and gets pace to chase in the paper race.
Souper Colossal has a nose for the wire (4-for-5) and might have a fitness edge in the Swale following a solid win in the Texas Glitter (5f turf sprint) Feb 7. He showed rating ability in his last and is a logical alternative to morning line favorite Daredevil.
Daredevil and Souper Colossal have both been part of my “Exceptional Eleven” Derby list for quite some time. The Swale is not a Kentucky Derby points race so both will get one upcoming shot at making the gate on the first Saturday in May, if they perform well on Saturday.
G2 Fountain of Youth (95 BSF): No doubt the ugliest Derby prep of the season from a visual standpoint. Upstart staggered, bobbed, and weaved across the line 2-3/4ths clear of Itsaknockout. Hold all tickets! Upstart was dq’d and placed 2nd for cutting off Itsaknockout. Frammento snuck past Frosted in the late stages to garner the show. The latter seemed to have this one in the bag turning for home but lost his action in the lane in a very odd race to say the least.
G2 Risen Star (93 BSF): In the best looking Derby prep of the week, International Star somehow found the rail (excellent ride by Mena) from the outside post and replayed his Lecomte score over War Story. Keen Ice was up to finish a non-threatening 3rd. Post time favorite Imperia finished a flat 5th and might be better on turf.
G3 Southwest (91 BSF): Far Right splashed home along the rail from off the pace, defeating longshot The Truth Or Else by 3/4ths of a length with perennial bridesmaid Mr. Z another nose back in 3rd. This was a virtual replay of the Smarty Jones except Mr. Z kept a straighter course.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.21 (1/5) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 21.
Comments: He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.
Comments: The undefeated colt will either run in the G2 San Felipe on March 7 or wait for the SA Derby on April 4. Baffert is reportedly pleased with his recent morning activity.
Latest Published Workout: 6f in 1:12.40 (2/31) at Santa Anita on Feb 21.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.88 (3/35) at Belmont (dirt training track) on Feb 22.
Comments: Won the pace battle but lost the war in the Withers. He never misses a dance and is expected to go next in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct on March 7.
Comments: Easy turf sprint return victory should set him up nicely for Saturday’s G2 Swale at 7f.
Latest Published Workout: 4f bullet in :48.20 (1/19) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 22.
Comments: Was hung out to dry (wide throughout from outer post) in BC Juvenile and retreated to last in a throw out effort. He drew the rail for Saturday’s Swale.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.95 (10/26) at Palm Meadows on Feb 21.
Comments: Replaces stablemate Imperia on the list. The Gotham on March 7 might be next.
Frosted, currently ranked second on my Kentucky Derby 2015 contenders list, tries to turn the tables on Upstart in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.
I thought Frosted ran well to finish 2nd in the Holy Bull considering how the race shaped up. There wasn’t much early interest and Frosted was stuck inside. Eventual easy winner Upstart was perfectly perched on the outside of overmatched pace rivals and got first run. Frosted was clearly second best once clear.
Frosted adds blinkers on Saturday and might be sitting on a breakthrough race.
Jarrod Horak’s G2 Fountain of Youth analysis at HorseRacingNation.com.
In addition to the Fountain of Youth, Derby preps this week include Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds and the redrawn Southwest Stakes on Feb 22.
G3 El Camino Real Derby (85 BSF): Metaboss once again proved that nine furlongs was well within his grasp in a smart late running tally at Golden Gate on Feb 14. He needs to elevate his game on dirt if he wants to make the Derby starting gate. Or, he could head to Turfway Park and try to qualify in the all-weather Spiral Stakes. Cross the Line was 2nd and solid favorite Conquest Typhoon held the show.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.88 (1/5) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 14.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.75 (8/39) at Palm Meadows on Feb 15.
Last Start: 2nd from the inside post in G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Jan 24.
Comments: He followed up a fine 2nd in the Remsen with another solid runner-up effort in the Holy Bull. He will wear blinkers in The Fountain of Youth on Feb 21.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.40 (10/65) at Santa Anita on Feb 15.
Comments: Foot bruise knocked him out of the G1 BC Juvenile. 2YO Champ returned to the work tab on Feb 2. The G2 Rebel at Oaklawn on March 14 is a possible return spot.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :49 (19/34) at Santa Anita on Feb 19.
Comments: The undefeated colt might not run again until the SA Derby on April 4. He is either a very good miler or a Silver Charm clone. Time will tell.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 1:00.25 (1/39) at Gulfstream on Feb 14.
Comments: Lecomte hero is entered in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb 21.
Comments: Easy turf sprint return victory should set him up nicely for the G2 Swale at 7f on Feb 28.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.00 (5/44) at Palm Meadows on Feb 14.
Comments: Mike Smith is named to ride in the Risen Star.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:00.60 (9/29) at Palm Meadows on Feb 14.
Last Start: 1st in G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Jan 24.
Comments: Fountain of Youth favorite sat a great outside tactical trip and got the jump on Frosted in the Holy Bull.
Comments: Using Aqua Tread therapy to help his ailing foot abscess. It looks like one more Derby prep, probably the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4 if he gets healthy in a hurry, or the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 11.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in 1:00.00 (1/9) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 15.
Comments: Was hung out to dry (wide throughout from outer post) in BC Juvenile and retreated to last in a throw out effort. He is expected to begin his sophomore campaign in the G2 Swale.
Barbados – Minor knee surgery has him sidelined until May.
Calculator – Emerged from Jan 31 work with an injury and is out for 6 months.
Eagle – Knee injury knocked him out of consideration for the Risen Star.
Leave the Light On – Remsen winner is off the Derby trail with an ankle injury.
Mawthooq – Tendon injury knocked him off the Triple Crown trail.
Los Alamitos Futurity 1-2 finishers Dortmund and Firing Line put on another show in the Robert Lewis Stakes and both look like viable Kentucky Derby 2015 threats.
Firing Line appeared to be on his way to victory but Dortmund came back along the inside and would not be denied.
Derby preps this week include the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 14, and Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes on Feb 16.
G3 Withers (96 BSF): El Kabeir was forced to go after Classy Class early and it cost him dearly in the lane. Far From Over overcame a stumbling start and blew past the aforementioned pacesetters in an outstanding effort. We will learn much more when they face each other again in the Gotham.
G3 Robert Lewis (103 BSF): Dortmund nipped Firing Line in the final jump in the Los Al Futurity, and he came back on his rival in the Robert Lewis Stakes. The undefeated winner is classy and battle tested. Firing Line was unlucky at Los Al but let this one get away from him.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.42 (1/7) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 7.
Latest Published Workout: 4f bullet in :47.55 (1/73) at Palm Meadows on Feb 8.
Comments: He followed up a fine 2nd in the Remsen with another solid runner-up effort in the Holy Bull. The Fountain of Youth is next.
Latest Published Workout: 3f in :36.40 (4/12) at Santa Anita on Feb 9.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.56 (12/35) at Gulfstream on Feb 7.
Comments: Lecomte hero will return to Fair Grounds for the G2 Risen Star on Feb 21.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:02.45 (34/48) at Palm Meadows on Feb 8.
Comments: Mike Smith is scheduled to ride in the Risen Star.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :49.45 (4/20) at Palm Meadows on Feb 4.
Comments: Sat a great outside tactical trip and got the jump on Frosted in the Holy Bull.
Comments: No longer targeting the Risen Star after suffering a foot abscess. It looks like one more Derby prep, probably the G1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4 if he gets healthy in a hurry, or the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 11.
Latest Published Workout: 5f bullet in :59.64 (1/10) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 8.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red began his Kentucky Derby 2015 journey in the San Vicente at Santa Anita on Feb 2 and was rudely greeted in deep stretch by Lord Nelson.
The San Vicente was an extended sprint and nothing more than a starting point for Texas Red. He is expected to go next in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb 21.
Three of my exceptional eleven Derby contenders are in action on Saturday, Feb 7. El Kabeir is the overwhelming favorite in the G3 Withers at the Big A, Dortmund is the choice in the G3 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and Souper Colossal goes in the Texas Glitter at Gulfstream.
Highly regarded, undefeated Blofeld has not had a published workout this year and drops off the list. Holy Bull hero Upstart is his replacement.
G2 Holy Bull (105 BSF): The fractions were tepid and Upstart sat a perfect outside tactical trip and got the jump on Frosted en route to an easy victory. Frosted was stuck inside for much of the race and was clearly second best.
Sam F. Davis (93 BSF): Ocean Knight ran his record to 2-for-2 in a neck victory over stubborn rival Divining Rod and it was five lengths back to show finisher My Johnny Be Good. We will learn more about these when they face saltier foes in the near future.
96 Rock (93 BSF): BC Juvenile 4th place finisher The Great War was much the best as the heavy favorite in this Polytrack sprint at Turfway.
G2 San Vicente (91 BSF): Lord Nelson edged BC Juvenile hero Texas Red in this extended sprint with no Derby points attached. Lord Nelson is now 3-for-3 around one turn and Texas Red was using this race as a prep for the G2 Risen Star.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.41 (3/14) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan 31.
Comments: He followed up a fine 2nd in the Remsen with another solid runner-up effort in the Holy Bull.
Latest Published Workout: 3f in :36.20 (5/22) at Santa Anita on Feb 2.
Comments: Foot bruise knocked him out of the G1 BC Juvenile. 2YO Champ returned to the work tab on Feb 2.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.14 (8/13) at Belmont (dirt training) on Jan 30.
Latest Published Workout: 4f bullet in :48.60 (1/15) at Gulfstream Park West on Jan 30.
Comments: His first 2015 target is the $75k Texas Glitter (5f turf) at Gulfstream on Feb 7, possibly followed by the G2 Swale at 7f on Feb 28.
Comments: The Risen Star is next, followed by the Santa Anita Derby.
Latest Published Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (11/29) at Palm Meadows on Jan 31.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :47.60 (3/28) at Santa Anita on Feb 3.
Comments: The undefeated G1 Los Al Futurity hero is entered in the G3 Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb 7.
Latest Published Workout: 4f in :48.29 (6/19) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb 1.