The market was aggressively pushed lower after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the market slightly below the monthly demand level of 1.0550 (established on January 1997).
The recent monthly closure is still negativity for the EUR/USD pair in the long term.
Bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should be anticipated as theoretical long-term targets towards 0.9450.
After such a long bearish rally (which started off 1.1300), bullish rejection was expressed at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).
By the end of the last week, a bullish pullback took place towards 1.0750-1.0770 (neckline of the double-top pattern).
This week, the EUR/USD bears have failed to defend their recent supply zone at 1.0750-1.0800. Thus, invalidating the previously mentioned reversal pattern.
The nearest bullish target should be located at 1.0950 - 1.0980 where the depicted reversal pattern was previously initiated.
On February 5, a transient bullish channel was established between 1.5170-1.5200.
The estimated target for this bullish channel was approached at 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance level).
Then, a bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market confirming the Flag pattern as a bearish one.
Persistence below the zone between 1.4950-1.5000 indicated further bearish decline. The initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700. Then, the bearish trend was resumed towards the level of 1.4550 where a lower daily bottom was established.
Last week, evident bullish recovery originated at 1.4560 pushing the GBP/USD pair above the level of 1.4700. Since then, successive higher highs have been established on the H4 chart.
As anticipated, daily closure above 1.5060 (50% Fibonacci level) ended the ongoing bearish momentum. Thus, exposing the next resistance level at 1.5170 (R2) for re-testing.
Recently, the zone between 1.5000-1.5050 turned to be Intraday support when further re-testing takes place.
On the other hand, price action should be watched carefully whithin retesting of the level of 1.5170 (R2) for a possible sell entry.
The USDX is currently weak and it is looking to find a floor at the support level of 96.30. This could be possible in the next week, as the Index was rejected by the resistance zone at 97.83. But we are still supporting the idea of a rebound if the USDX achieves the support at the level of 96.30 as this zone is very strong on the daily chart.
During the last days, on the H1 chart, the USDX found strong dynamic resistance at 200 SMA. Now it is looking to develop a lower low pattern above the support level of 96.30. If the USDX does a breakout on that floor, it would be expected to fall to the level of 96.34, which is our next downside target in the short term.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.83, take profit is at 96.34, and stop loss is at 97.32.
GBP/USD is breaking the resistance zone around 1.5125 and now it is looking to reach the next upside target placed at 1.5238. This move is supported by the current short and medium term structure in the lower time frames. Anyway, the overall bias is still bearish and we are still wating for a strong pullback at some point.
The pair is trying to form a higher high pattern below the resistance level of 1.5161 at the H1 chart, after a successful consolidation above the support zone of 1.5096. The current price action favor bulls currently, as GBP/USD has been forming some bullish swings that are strengthening the short term bias.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5161, take profit is at 1.5245, and stop loss is at 1.5082.
Since bulls pushed the price further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looks quite overbought.
The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that calls for confirmation (a daily closure below 1.2350).
Recently, successive lower highs were established within the depicted consolidation zone, enhancing the bearish side of the market.
Moreover, support levels around 1.2350 and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) were finally broken after providing significant support for several weeks on the daily and weekly charts.
A daily fixation below 1.2300 clears the way for the USD/CAD pair towards the zone between 1.2050-1.2000 (where the projection target of the recent range breakout is located) and 1.1800 where the depicted weekly uptrend is roughly located.
The price zone at 1.2320-1.2350 remains a significant Intraday resistance zone. This is exactly where price actions should be watched for a low-risk sell entry at retesting.
Conservative traders should be waiting for either a bullish pullback towards 1.2320-1.2350 or a bearish breakout below 1.2100 for a valid sell entry.
T/P levels should be placed at 1.2220, 1.2150 and 1.2050, respectively. On the other hand, daily closure above 1.2370 invalidates this scenario.
The double bottom of USD/CAD pair is likely to be set at 1.2087 in the hourly chart. Now, the pair is approaching to test it in order to start rising. So, the market is continuing to show signs of strength following the break at the level of 1.2087. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair resistance has broken and was turned to support since January 21, 2015 (look at the daily chart).
Moreover, the pair has already formed strong support at the level of 1.2087. Hence, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2090 with the first target at 1.2170 and continues towards 1.2224. However, if the trend can break this level and close below 1.2080, then it will be a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective. The market will indicate the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.2080. As a result, it will be a good sign to sell at this level, but it should be borne in mind the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts for that it should be placed at 1.2065.
USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.31 versus 98.04 early Thursday) on the back of a larger-than-expected fall in the US new home sales (versus forecast -3.5%) by 11.4% in March, more-than-expected 295,000 US jobless claims in a week ended April 18 (versus forecast 290,000), weaker-than-expected April Markit US flash manufacturing PMI at 54.2 (versus forecast 55.7). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year fell 1.5 bps overnight to 1.957%) and Japan export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 1.81% to 12.48). As the US stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 hit record high 2,120.49 Thursday before closing up 0.24% at 2,112.93) on the back of a surge in oil prices to their best levels of the year (Nymex crude settled up $1.58 at $57.74/bbl Thursday) and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is in bullish mode, but the MACD is still bearish.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.10. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.75. The pivot point stands at 119.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.10 and the second target at 120.45.
USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.31 versus 98.04 early Thursday) on the back of a larger-than-expected fall in the US new home sales (versus forecast -3.5%) by 11.4% in March, more-than-expected 295,000 US jobless claims in a week ended April 18 (versus forecast 290,000), weaker-than-expected April Markit US flash manufacturing PMI at 54.2 (versus forecast 55.7) ,and franc demand on the retreating EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the negative Swiss interest rates, threat of the Swiss National Bank's CHF-selling intervention, and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.
The daily chart is mixed as stochastic is bullish; but the MACD is in bearish mode, bearish-engulfing candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9480. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9440. The pivot point stands at 0.9640. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9685 and the second target at 0.0.9720.
The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue moving upwards from the level of 0.7542 (this level coincides with the 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart). Accordingly, the pair is going to show signs of strength at the lowest price of 0.7542. It will be a good deal to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels with the first target at 0.7580 and further at 0.7618 in order to test the double top (new project at the same time frame). We expect a new high of 0.7618 to act as strong resistance as it is going to be a good place to take profit. Briefly, if the trend succeeds to stay above 0.7542, the market will continue moving in the uptrend above the daily pivot point towards the level of 0.7618 to test the golden ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. But the stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.7525 at 0.7512. On the other hand, in case a reflection takes place and the NZD/USD pair is not able to break through the resistance at 0.7618, the market will decline to 0.7505 to indicate a bearish market today.
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a six-day low of 0.7535 on Thursday. Kiwi sentiment was hurt after RBNZ Governor John McDermott said the central bank is not considering any interest rate hikes at present and monetary policy should remain stimulatory for a prolonged period. NZD/USD is also weighed by the kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross and soft dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the weaker dollar sentiment, positive investor risk appetite, and NZD-USD interest differential and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastic is falling from overbought levels.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7490. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7435. The pivot point stands at 0.7640. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7685 and the second target at 0.7740.
Recently, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we had expected, the price tested the level of 1.4389 in a high volume. The short-term trend changed from bearish to bullish. Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a bearish correction. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe demand in an ultra-high volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 1.4290 is broken. So, the level of 1.4520 is likely to be put to the test. According to the daily time frame, we got demand in an ultra-high volume and price actions were very strong.
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling EUR/NZD and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement.
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by less-dovish-than-expected minutes for the Bank of England MPC's meeting in April and positive investor risk appetite. But sterling sentiment is dented by a surprising 0.5% on-month drop in the UK retail sales in March (versus forecast +0.4% on-month), buoyant GBP/USD undertone, and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan export sales and positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastic are in bullish mode, bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, and five-day moving average is rising above 15-day moving average.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 181.20 and the second target at 181.80. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 178.90. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 178.45. The pivot point is at 179.30.
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the level of $1,193.00. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a demand in a volume above the average. I had placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at $1,208.00 (held few times). I had placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential bearish objective points and got Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at $1,185.00 and Fibonacci expansion 100% at $1,170.00. Major resistance is seen around the level of $1,220.00. Only if the price breaks that level, we may see a strong bullish movement. The short-term trend is neutral. I found trading range between the level of $1,209.00 and $1,188.00. We are waiting for a clear direction for better entry.
Trading recommendations: Gold is in a trading range. If the price breaks up or down in a high volume, the direction will be confirmed.
Silver remains unchanged from yesterday and is trading around $15.88. The metal has bounced off the fibonacci 0.786 around $15.70, which is also past resistance turned support. It is still recommended to hold long positions with risk at $15.30. Immediate support is seen at the level of $15.30 and lower while resistance is seen at $16.50 followed by $17.40/50, $18.40/50, and higher respectively. Silver bulls should remain in control until prices stay above the level of $15.30 in the coming sessions.
The Dollar index is starting the day very weak as short-term support at 97 was broken. The Dollar index is making a Head and Shoulders pattern and is testing the neckline support at 96.80 now. If this support is broken, we should expect more selling to follow and a push much lower than 96 in the index.
The Dollar index is testing the neckline support. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. The price has broken the short-term support at 97 and is testing the important support. We could see a push towards 93.
The weekly chart is turning bearish. A weekly close below the tenkan-sen indicator will signal more downside expected towards the yellow line (kijun-sen). The Dollar index will confirm its break down if it breaks below 96.20.
Gold price was pushed up towards $1,195 as we had expected. It seems that the sideways movement is forming a triangle pattern. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above or below the triangle boundaries before taking any action.
Gold price is still below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart but has not broken below the lower triangle boundary at $1,185. Support is crucial at this level and it should be used as a stop for any long position and the level that gives a new sell signal. On the other hand, gold has resistance at $1,205 where the upper triangle boundary is found. Breaking above that level will give a buy signal with a target at $1,250-60.
In the weekly chart, the price remains trapped between the kijun-sen and the tenkan-sen. Support of the tenkan-sen was tested and held. The price continues to trade above it so the sideways consolidation is not finished yet as the price remains trapped within a trading range.
Gold is still trading within the range defined earlier. The upport zone is around $1,180.00/83.00 while the resistance zone is around $1,205.00/07.00. The metal is seen to be tradingaround the level of $1,195.00 but it needs to confirm a break above $1,207.00 at least to rally further. On the flip side, a break below $1,180.00 would bring/test the level of $1,175.00 before rallying further. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk at $1,170.00. The iImmediate support is seen at $1,180.00 followed by $1,162.00, $1,140.00, and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,210.00 followed by $1,240.00/50.00 and higher respectively.
Remain long, stop at $1,170.00, a target is open.
The corrective cycle in wave c purple is about to hit the anticipated target at the level of 129.94, just below the 78% Fibo at the level of 130.17. This is an area where the market is likely to reverse and continue lower. However any breakout higher would mean that the market is entering a bullish zone and the last swing high at the level of 131.30 might be tested. On the other hand, the key level to the downside is intraday support at the level of 128.95.
Buy stop/limit orders from yesterday should be kept open as the market approaches TP at the level of 129.94. SL level might be lowered just below the level of 129.70 to lock some gains.
As anticipated yesterday the corrective cycle in wave c purple is in progress. As the market breaks all support levels and it is heading to test the swing low at the level of 1.2088. Please notice that the corrective cycle in wave 4 green is almost completed and the building bullish divergence on momentum oscillator supports this view. Nevertheless, some lower levels might be hit if the intraday support at the level of 1.2088 is violated. Next support is seen at the level of 1.20000.
Sell stop orders from yesterday should be kept open as the market approaches TP at the level of 1.2088. SL level might be lowered just above the level of 1.2180 to lock some gains.
The EUR/JPY pair got through 129.50/60 levels as expected and discussed earlier. Please note that the pair is testing a sloping resistance line around the same region. Furthermore, the fibonacci 0.618 resistance is also passing through the same region. A bearish reversal here would bring bears back in control and the pair could head towards a fresh swing low below 126.00. It is recommended to book profits on the long positions taken yesterday and wait for a reaction here. Immediate support is seen at 127.80/128.00 followed by 127.00, 126.00, and lower while resistance is seen at 131.50 and higher respectively.
Book profits on long positions taken earlier, remain flat for now.
The GBP/CHF pair retraced to its past resistance turned support as seen in the 4-hour chart. Furthermore, a bullish bounce has appeared on smaller timeframes indicating a potential reversal higher. It is hence recommended to initiate long positions around 1.4380/90 with risk at 1.4200. The upside potential remains at the levels of 1.4630 and 1.4830 respectively. Immediate support is seen at 1.4200 followed by 1.4100, 1.3850, and lower while resistance is seen at the level of 1.4630 followed by 1.4830, 1.4900, and higher respectively.
Initiate long positions now, stop at 1.4200, a target is open.
EUR/USD: As it had been predicted, the breakout that occurred on this pair, following the recent visible consolidation, favored bulls. The price went above the support line at 1.0800 almost touching the resistance line at 1.0850. Now, the resistance line is an easy target for bulls as it may be breached to the upside.
USD/CHF: The situation on this pair is largely determined by what happens to the CHF and EUR. The CHF was weakened on Wednesday and the pair went upwards. The EUR was strengthened yesterday and the pair nosedived. The support level of 0.9550 had already been battered, and therefore, the bias in the market turned bearish.
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD generally moves upwards this week. The price has closed above the accumulation territory at 1.5050 (which was our target for this week). The next target for bulls is situated at the distribution territory of 1.6000, which is likely to be attained today or next week. However, this expectation does not render a possibility of short-term pullbacks invalid.
USD/JPY: The movement of this currency trading instrument has been erratic and unpredictable, though things look seemingly as being favorable to bulls. There is a supply level at 120.00 and a demand level at 119.00. The price must stay above the supply level or below the demand level to poins a clear direction.
EUR/JPY: Just like EUR/USD, this cross was able to break upwards, resulting in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. This is a bullish signal. Buy!
We have seen a very strong rally from 1.3880, which indicates that the firm low for wave B is in place. We also have taken out resistance at 1.4237 adding confidence to call for a low being in place. In the short term, we are looking for the break resistance-line to act as support. However, even if this former resistance-line gets broken towards downside, support should be expected near 1.4150 for one more high above 1.4547. More impulsive rally will ultimately take us to a high of 1.7274 high.
A rally from a low of 126.02 continues to unfold as expected. We are looking for a break above the base channel resistance-line near 130.00 to add acceleration towards a target at 131.90, where red wave iii will be 161.8% longer than red wave i. In the short term, we expect minor support at 128.57 to be able to protect the downside.
We are only in the very beginning of, what we believe, is a new major impulsive rally that ultimately will take us way beyond the high of 149.55.
When the European market opens, some economic data on the Belgian NBB Business Climate, Eurogroup Meetings, and German Ifo Business Climate are due for release.The US will publish economic data about the Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.
In Asia, Japan is going to release data on all Industries activity m/m and SPPI y/y. The US is expected to publish economic data on Durable Goods Orders m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.
In April, weak data on PMI indicated slower growth momentum for the US manufacturing sector, with production volumes and new jobs both expanding at weaker rates compared to the previous month. This contributed to a fall in the headline seasonally adjusted Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 54.2 in April from 55.7 in March.
In the week ending April 18, advanced figures for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 295,000, showing an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 294,000.
The soft US data pushed the greenback to retest the 50Dsma. This is the fourth time when the USDX puts support at 50Dsma to the test. The USDX has been consolidating at 20Dsma finally ended with negative bias. The index is likely to make a double top between 98.46 and 98.43. Support is found at 97.00. Today's trading range is seen between 97.00 and 97.90.
The US dollar is trading at 119.50 at Wednesday's Asian session compared to 119.58 at the end of the day. The pair erased its early gains and closed below 20&50dsma. Today, the pair faced strong resistance at 20Dsma 119.70 at the Asian session. The double bottom was formed between 118.33 and 118.54. The nearest support is seen at 119.30 100Dsma.We still recommend buying on dips. In the four-hour chart 200Dsma 120.10 has been acting as strong resistance. Hourly support is found at 119.30. Trade: Buying with sl 119.30 cmp 119.50 with a target at 119.70 or buy above 119.70 with targets at 120.00 and 120.10. In case of negative economic data from the US, sell below 119.30 with targets at 119.00 and 118.50. Those who wish to buy on dip can buy between 118.55 and 118.40 with sl 118.00. This view applies to positional traders.
Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry continued to show growth for the 24th consecutive month in March 2015, increasing by 4.2% compared with March 2014. This was the longest period of sustained year-on-year growth since May 2008 when there were 31 periods of growth. On the month, the quantity bought decreased by 0.5% compared with February 2015. The largest decrease was reported by petrol stations which fell by 6.2%. In the financial year ending 2015, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks was 87.3 billion pounds; a decrease of 11.1 billion pounds compared with the same period in the financial year ending 2014. UK retail sales fell in March.
The pound fell to 1.4960 and changed its direction towards the neckline. Soft data from the US helped the cable recover from the lows. Today, traders eye US data on core durable goods orders and durable goods orders. Both the data will print negative readings. In this case, buy the cable above 1.5080 with a target at 1.5160 (March 18 high). In case the price managed to stay above 1.5160, bulls can extend their paw towards 1.5185 and 1.5210. Before the UK's election, these levels are going to be printed as tops for the near term. In the 4-hour chart, the prices are forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. Prices are consolidating on a verge of breakout. On a daily basis, the cable managed to close above 50Dsma at yesterday's session. These factors favor bulls. Intraday support is found at 1.5000. We recommend selling below 1.5000 with small targets at 1.4970 and 1.4960. Real selling is expected only below 1.4960 for another 100 pips downfall towards 1.4860.
Crude oil prices jumped at yesterday's session. US official said on Thursday Iranian ships are moving northeast away from Yemen. According to US official, Iran ships will be evacuated from the northeast Yemen, the release of "the promising signal". The Iran Oil minister Bijan Namdar wants to cut OPEC production by 5%, 30mn b/d. The OPEC's meeting is scheduled for June 05. In the coming June meeting we do not expect OPEC to cut production. In case a cut takes place, it will be a big thumb up. Technically, the crude oil price gave an upside breakout from the inverse head and shoulder breakout ($62.00). We have been recommending buying from the level of $53.40. We recommended buying with targets at 57.00, $58.50, and $59.00 in the coming weeks. Now, $58.40 is done. In the least case, it can touch $62.00 as well. The 100Dema is found at 55.75, which acts as strong support.
Gold edged higher after the US soft data. But, it is unable to touch $1,200.00. The 50Dsma is found at $1,194.00. The metal is trading at $1,192.50 at the Asian session compared to yesterday's closing at $1,193.60. The metal fell below 20 & 50 dsma at yesterday's session. In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 295,000, 1,000 above the previous week's unrevised level of 294,000. April's data indicated slower growth momentum for the US manufacturing sector, with production volumes and incoming new work both expanding at slower pace than in the previous month. The metal has parallel support at $1,191.00. Market participants are waiting for today's euro meeting, developments in Greece and US are durable and core durable data. Next week's FOMC meeting is the crucial event for both bulls and bears. The prices have been consolidating in a tight range between $1,178.00 and $1,213.00. The confirmation of Grexit favors bulls, but chances are remote. We expect the US to release weak data today. At Wednesday's session, we said the metal could retest $1,180.00 in two days. The metal a made low at $1,183.00 and changed the direction. The key support level is found at $1,178.00. In case the price closes below $1,177.00, it can extend its fall towards a 52-week low. Intraday resistance is seen at $1,197.00 and $1,200.00. For an intraday session we recommend selling below $1,191.00 with small targets at $1,188.00, $1,184.00, $1,183.00, and $1,180.00. In case the US readings come below expectations, buy above $1,200.00 with targets at $1,204.00, $1,208.00, and $1,210.00. Strong resistance is found at $1,213.50 20Wsma. Until the price closes below $1,200.00, use every rise to sell.
The euro paused its 3-day losing streak gave a strong pullback towards the resistance zone. After the dismissal PMI data, the euro slipped towards 1.0666 made a double bottom at 1.0660 flew to the previous swing high 1.0850. The pair rejected at the resistance level, managed to close at 1.0824. The price has been consolidating 190 pips between 1.0660 and 1.0850. A side breakout is likely to provide room for trade. The double top and double bottom was place between the tight ranges. The soft US data helped the pair to move higher. Developments in Greece helped the euro to strengthen. Greek Prime Minister says "Group of negotiations with Brussels has made "significant progress" will soon reach an agreement for optimism". French and German PMI data was disappointed in April compared to data released in March.
At today's Asian session, the euro is trading at 1.0808 against USD compared to the previous day close 1.0824. Ahead of today's major event, the Eurogroup's meeting, the euro is trading lower against USD. Intraday support is found at 1.0800. The support level at 1.0750 is the key driver for today's session. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0790 with targets at 1.0750, 1.0720, 1.0700, and 1.0670. The 61.8 fib expansion level of 1.0865 acts as intraday strong resistance. We recommend buying above 1.0870 with targets at 1.0890, 1.0950, and 1.0990. Whereas, 1.0910 50Ddsma acts as a major hurdle for bulls to cross for the next higher targets.