To unseat Trump, the Democrats must flip at least three of the nine crucial swing states he won last time. That won’t be easy, with perennial battlegrounds Ohio and Florida trending in a strongly Republican direction.
Instead, Democrats will concentrate on three heartland pick-ups: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—that’s why they’re holding their convention in Milwaukee.
In all three states, Republicans fared badly in 2018, losing Senate and governor’s races. Trump needs to hold just one of these three keystones and he’ll win: even if Dems take both Michigan and Pennsylvania—the two larger prizes of the “key three”—Trump still gets 270 and wins the presidency by a single electoral vote.