For those who were expecting a major turn-around in India’s Pakistan policy in the wake of the gruesome killing of two Indian jawans and mutilation of their bodies in the Mendhar sector of the Line of Control on 8 January, here is a reality check. The UPA government is in no mood to take tough retaliatory measures against the difficult and troublesome nuclear-armed neighbor.
The issue came up for some intense discussion on Thursday at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the country’s highest decision-making body with regard to issues pertaining to national security. The CCS is headed by the Prime Minister and has ministers of home, defence, external affairs and finance, National Security Advisor (NSA), chiefs of army, air force, navy, Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) as members. The CCS discussions are never shared with the media as a matter of unwritten rule and it is extremely rare when the government briefs about a CCS meeting. This explains and puts in perspective the importance of CCS meetings.
The third important CCS actor who spoke on the subject on Thursday was union home minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. And he also had a similar indication to give: no drastic change in India’s Pakistan policy. Asked whether the new India- Pakistan relaxed visa regime would be put on hold in view of Pakistan’s latest provocation, Shinde said: "Whatever agreement has been entered into, it will be carried on. There is no rethinking on visa agreement."
Even the proposed visit of Pakistan’s judicial commission to India for cross examination of four persons in connection with the 26/11 Mumbai attack trial would not be cancelled by India, though a firm date for the visit is yet to be worked out. "It (the Pakistani judicial commission’s proposed India visit) is a very positive step. The way they would be coming, we would also go...We want this case to be concluded as early as possible," Shinde said.
However, Shinde hinted at the possibility of Pakistan-based terror fountainhead Hafiz Saeed, the founder chief of Lashkar e Toiba, having played a role in the latest escalation in Indo-Pak ties because of the LoC incident. The minister said Saeed had visited the border areas in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir a few days before the LoC incident and had talked to some people. In response to a question whether he felt that the Mendhar incident was choreographed by Saeed, Shinde said: “I do not have that information. But we are very keen to get such information. We are on the line".
Now, to deconstruct what the three important CCS actors tried to communicate to the media subtly from their different platforms.
The sum and substance is that the UPA government is not going to have any drastic changes in its Pakistan policy. Well, it may not be business as usual and the Indo-Pak relations may inch forward, or stay where they are, but India would not be too keen to push the CONTROL ALL DELETE button on its ties with Pakistan; not just yet.
Perhaps it will be unpalatable and unacceptable to the man on the street in India – and the UPA government won’t be unmindful of the people’s anger in this regard – this may not be the end of the Indo-Pak engagement process. The two sides have invested heavy political capital into this process. Both governments will be equal losers if the peace process were to go awry. The biggest challenge for the Manmohan Singh government would be to manage the opinion of its aam aadmi – the oft-repeated UPA mantra which brought it back to power.
Last, but not the least, it would be the biggest challenge for the UPA government in all its future dealings with the untrustworthy Pakistanis to ensure that not only its Pakistan policy does not boomerang but also it is seen to be delivering.
The writer is a New Delhi-based journalist-author and a strategic analyst who can be reached at bhootnath004@yahoo.com.