It is never a good idea to get too carried away with the performance of any team in the opening weeks of the NFL season. We always see slow starters, as well as lesser teams that come out to a surprisingly fast start. If history has shown us anything, though, it is that the cream always tends to find a way to rise to the top. Just a couple of weeks ago, all the chatter was about the demise of the New England Patriots, with that talk now put to rest after a couple of great performances in back to back weeks.
Those wins restored the natural order in the AFC East, with the Patriots ousting the Miami Dolphins. It was the Dolphins who were one of the surprise teams at the start of the year, winning 3 straight games, but they have since hit a skid, losing to the Patriots and then following that up with a loss to the Bengals. Things don’t get any easier this weekend with a visit from the Chicago Bears on the docket. The Bears hit the road as a 3-point favorite, with the point total set at 41 ½.
The Chicago Bears made some big headlines prior to the start of the season with the free agent signing of Khalil Mack. That transaction has proven to be a stroke of genius, as the Bears defense has now quickly transformed into one of the best in the league, with MVP Award chatter already heading the way of Mack. The Bears are coming off a bye week and hitting Miami with a 3-1 record, which is good enough to have them at the top of the NFC North.
This is a team that has looked steady on offense, averaging over 27 PPG, but totally brilliant on defense, where they have surrendered just 16 PPG. They are allowing about 64 YPG on the ground, so running against them is a total lost cause. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, which includes going 3-1 ATS this season.
Why bet on the Miami Dolphins?
The Dolphins won their opening 3 games of the season by playing football that was defensively sound, but that has all fallen apart in the last 2 weeks. They gave up 38 points to the New England Patriots in a loss, and then surrendered 27 more in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Making matters worse is that the offense only managed to put up 24 points in those two games.
What has to be alarming with that stat is that they are now about to try and break down one of the toughest defenses in the league this season. Miami is just 5-9-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall, but things are a whole lot better at home, where they have gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games.
I am starting to be sold on this Bears team as a potential dark horse contender, which is why I am on them to win and cover on the road in Miami on Sunday.