Stating that "we've pretty much reached the limit of how old we can grow as a species", Minister Elferink estimated that elderly people with terminal illness cost the Northern Territory $1 million in health care costs in the last year of life. Even more astonishingly, he opined that the dying might be persuaded to obligingly shuffle off this mortal coil with the argument that "we can continue treatment but by discontinuing treatment your grandchildren would have a better opportunity" and "think of the work that could be achieved ... in the first year of life with $1 million".
He acknowledged that his remarks would be controversial.
What's wrong with his argument that ill seniors ought to nobly sacrifice themselves at the altar of general public 'good'? Plenty: but let's stick with just three, beyond the obvious fact that Northern Territory seniors are seriously offended by his comments and they vote.
Firstly, this is cheap dog-whistle politics that once again stupidly pitches one Australian against another (remember the infamous 'Leaners versus Lifters' campaign last year?) at the expense of insights and innovative solutions that satisfy everyone's needs.
Secondly, his estimate of the average cost of last-year-of-life medical costs beggars belief.
In a careful analysis of the cost of the last year of hospital care for New South Wales patients, Kardamanidis and colleagues1 found they varied from around $7,000 to $18,000. For the sake of argument, let's use a round figure of $15,000. And, given these are 'hospital' costs (where most dying people end up) but don't cover everything like pharmaceuticals, home care and the like, let's double it to $30,000. That's fairly consistent with figures from the USA, and is likely to be replicated across Australia.
But, heck, the Northern Territory is a vast place with many remote communities, so let's toss in an extra average $20,000 for the Royal Flying Doctor Service on top. That's a total average of $50,000.
Yet John Elferink's 'estimate' is a jaw-dropping twenty times even that generous figure. Is he off with the fairies?
Kardamanidis' study adds another dimension to our insights, too. They found that the average cost of hospital care decreased with old age: $17,927 for 65–74yo; $14,498 for 75–84yo; $10,403 for 85–94yo; and $7,028 for 95+yo. The very elderly dying use hospital services far less than those less old.
The Minister's perceptions and ageist 'formula' for self-sacrifice is seriously at odds with actual evidence.
And thirdly, his superficial, combative assessment quite overlooks excellent and readily-available solutions. It's well-established that higher differential end-of-life healthcare costs are significantly associated with attemps at life-sustaining ICU interventions (e.g. a UK study by Hanchate and colleagues2).
But there's more. An extensive multi-centre USA study by Zhang and colleagues3 reveals that simply by having better conversations with their doctors, advanced cancer patients not only reduced the amount of medical interventions, but achieved better quality of death.
By improving real conversations about the the likelihood of futility versus effectiveness of medical interventions at the end of life, balanced with information about the invasiveness or burden of enduring them, patients themselves can avoid interventions they judge to be of no net value, or even counterproductive.
So, Minister, quit the ill-informed and cheap political shots. Seek informed and practial advice and get on with the job of governing for all Territorians. Implement policies that encourage and facilitate real and meaningful conversations between patients and their doctors at end of life. The health bill will naturally go down for ethically sound—rather than ethical stink-bomb—reasons.
Kardamanidis, K, Lim, K, Da Cunha, C, Taylor, LK & Jorm, LR 2007, 'Hospital costs of older people in New South Wales in the last year of life', Medical Journal of Australia, vol. 187, no. 7, pp. 383-386.
Hanchate, A, Kronman, AC, Young-Xu, Y, Ash, AS & Emanuel, E 2009, 'Racial and ethnic differences in end-of-life costs: why do minorities cost more than whites?', Archives of Internal Medicine, vol. 169, no. 5, Mar 9, pp. 493-501.
Zhang, B, Wright, AA, Huskamp, HA, Nilsson, ME, Maciejewski, ML, Earle, CC, Block, SD, Maciejewski, PK & Prigerson, HG 2009, 'Health care costs in the last week of life associations with End-of-life conversations', Archives of Internal Medicine, vol. 169, no. 5, pp. 480-488.
Minister Elferink phoned me directly to put his case. We had a respectful if brief conversation (he was in a Parliamentary session). He said that the journalist's report had misrepresented his statements. We agreed that at the very least, the remarks he made were injudicious in the context of end-of-life, and I reiterated that I thought suggesting in any manner that people should give up part of their lives for the economic benefit of others was repugnant. I also reiterated that should the NT Government choose to invest a modest sum in the education of doctors in how to hold respectful, open conversations with patients and in a way that the truly listened to both what was being said as well as left unsaid, that patients would far less often choose futile and burdensome treatments they really didn't want. This would lead to less stress on the patient, their families and healthcare workers, and have the added benefit not only of a better quality of death, but a significantly reduced state healthcare budget.
I hope the Minister takes good evidence and advice on board, and adjusts his stance and the NT Government's approach to medical end-of-life decisions.