Discussion in 'Video Poker' started by WolfpackRobNC, Apr 17, 2019 at 8:25 AM.
I am going to commit heresy. I’ve been deviating a little from JoB basic strategy. I’d like for y’all to judge my sin and tell me if I need to repent.
There are two ways that my deviant streak comes out. First, if I am dealt 3ofaK off the bat, I’ve started saving one of the two remaining cards, trying to get the full house.
I don’t know if this is actually statistically sound, but by my logic, it seems easier/more likely to hit the one card I need for the full house, rather than hit two of the same card. Anecdotally speaking, I seem to hit a few more full houses, but haven’t actually tracked it.
Next, (and here’s the really bad one) I’ve noticed that a LOT of the time, when dealt a low pair initially, in the three cards I swap, there’s another card the same value as one of the cards I just swapped.
Seeing that, I’ve started to save back one card in addition to the low pair. And I am absolutely hitting more 2Pairs that way. Now, admittedly it’s a bit of a crapshoot as I have no rhyme or reason in picking the third card.
But to me, for my perceived increase in the 2 Pair, it seems worth it to use one of my cards that way, with two cards that are still random chances to provide a paying hand.
I haven’t noticed a strong negative difference in my sessions.
Or am I just throwing money away??
Basic strategy is based on a math and is fact, swaying from it in the long run WILL cost you money, but sometimes you have to go with your gut! A few of my biggest wins were hail Marys!
Saw this on the Cal's facebook page. Would a jackpot like this justify being RF aggressive? What would the payback % be following basic strategy?
The shorter answer is yes you are throwing money away, how much is dependent on the game.
On 3 of a kinds, you are actually making it harder to hit full houses as you are trying to draw 1 time any of 3 very specific cards, versus 2 cracks at creating any pair. Additionally where you are hurting yourself is you are giving yourself only 1 crack at a quad versus 2. That's the bigger loss of value.
As to the pair of low cards, I have been guilty of holding 1 or 2 high cards instead of the pair, but never holding a third card. Again the reasons above only expanded to just a low pair. You are essentially making it much harder to hit the better paying hands (3 of a kind, 4 of a kind, fh) in favor of trying for a lower paying hand. This drives your expected return down.
First, if I am dealt 3ofaK off the bat, I’ve started saving one of the two remaining cards, trying to get the full house.
Uh, that does not pass the smell test. You're throwing away half of your chances for 4 of a kind.
Nothing wrong with what you are doing or you are describing.
You are not throwing money away. You are gambling. We all are, otherwise why should we go to casinos in the first place?
I am all for so called foolish bets.
Casinos were not built on sucker bets but were built on the pursuit of perfect play.
You can be the best player in the world, heck, even a computer for that matter and the casino will still have an advantage. You might make a trickle of money if you time it right but over the long term you will lose. Thats the way they are designed.
Notice how casinos dont want you to play sucker bets and long shots, even calling them sucker bets so you feel dumb playing them. Sure, they are high risk but also a high advantage for you. Thats why they dont want you playing them.
I will definitely leave the math part to the experts, like @tringlomane but VP Strategy is built on math and math doesn't really do "hunches". I'll admit that after a few hours at the bar, I will sometimes go for a "hunch", but I think it pays off a lot less often than it doesn't.
Everyone can play how they want. My mom has the most unique VP strategy I've ever seen, but if she's having fun, I'm not going to lecture her. I just know that she's statistically giving money to the casino because she likes to hold that extra face card for some inexplicable reason.
On holding another card in addition to the 3OAK, of the 47 cards left, 12 will match the held card and 1 will match the 3OAK. 34 cards will offer you nothing more. So you have a 25.5% chance of getting the full house and a 2.1% chance at a 4OAK and a 73.4% chance of getting just your 3OAK..
On NOT holding another card in addition to the 3OAK, you have twice the opportunity to get the 4OAK, which would trump any reduced chance on getting pairs to complete the full house.
The only thing that matters is the math. Gambling is based on math. The computer has calculated every combination of cards that you can draw and has determined which hold, over the long run, will get you the most money back. If you perceive differently, it is a false perception. 2+2 will always =4.
Think of it this way. If you are dealt 3 Aces, a 10 and a 8.....keep the aces and an 8....now you have 1 chance at 4 of a kind....and 3 cards left to complete a full house.
Now suppose you only kee the 3 Aces. The next card is going to be some random card...just like the random card you were going to keep in the first place. So you still have 3 cards left to complete a full house just like the first scenario.
The big difference is the first scenario only gives you 1 draw at a four of a kind and the second scenario gives you two draws at it.
It’s like being dealt 66Q39...and holding 66Q and hoping for a two pair. I see lots of people do things like this because of “Jacks or better” usually paying. But if a Q hits, it’s two pair. You may as well hold 663 instead. Either way you are eliminating another chance at hitting 3 of a kind while NOT improving your chance at two pair.
You can play however you want, but since you are asking for advice....you are making a huge mistake in doing this. It doesn’t matter what that 4th card is, so may as well let get another chance to pull a quad. Holding the 4th card does NOT increase the likelihood of a full house but it severely decreases likelihood of four of a kind.
By high advantage you must mean high payout? Because what makes a sucker bet is a bet that pays much lower than the actual odds of winning the bet. Craps has some of the best bets in the casino and some of the worse, yet you see a lot of proposition bets being made because the payoff if high when it does hit; the problem is, a bet that pays 11 to 1 yet has only a 1 in 20 chance of hitting is a great deal for the casino. To each his own, but when it comes to video poker I want my money to go the furthest, because that buys more chances for the RF.
Hey, I'll sometimes hold three to a royal over a high pair if I'm feeling lucky.
Aren't you supposed to hold three to a Royal over a pair?
A low pair yes. Not over pair of Jacks or Better.
Casino doesn't want you to bet sucker bets? There is not a single bet in the casino they don't want you to make.
Holding the high pair gives you an expected value of about 1/4 of a unit more.
However. if I'm feeling lucky, I'm "buying" three royal cards for 1/4 of a unit.
High pairs are a dime a dozen (well, 24 units or so a dozen) and there's a lot of thrill anticipating that royal!