The "Happy Ending" twist to Euro concerns involves the survival of the European political project and the emergence of a new “Euro Deal”, which dramatically transforms the economic and political landscape of Europe. On the one hand, debt-crisis countries are “allowed” to leave the Euro but at a high political cost (massive reduction in the number of administrative officials in European Union institutions) and a moderate yet acceptable economic and fiscal cost (e.g. a new “Euro Deal” tax or new agreements in total contributions to the EU and total receipts from the EU). On the other hand, richer countries rapidly benefit from the new Euro Deal’s reception by global financial markets and investors. Thus resulting in a steady recovery of economic and socio-political stability.
The growth of debts, austerity packages and spending cuts in Europe lead to critical economic instability and the abrupt transformation of the Euro Zone. A few countries leave the Euro at huge political price while others enjoy the new "Euro Deal".
Businesses in several countries have to adjust to world of multiple currencies and floating exchange rates, in addition to national austerity.
Possible governance of collective research and infrastructure regime by core EuroLand countries, with priorities reflecting their national concerns.
High divergence between core and more peripheral European countries. May result in another wave of large-scale migration in search of jobs.
Uneven development of infrastructure based on market demand, though at least some crisis-stricken countries may gamble on investment in infrastructure as a means to attract foreign high-tech firms to locate (or remain located) in their area.
High divergence between core and more peripheral European countries. May result in political tensions, and new approaches to achieving representation in intergovernmental organisations. Impacts on internal market are unpredictable: perhaps some development of a two-tier framework.
Health inequalities may be source of political concern.
Defence cooperation may be traded off against economic inclusion.
There are several signals warning us about the probability of occurrence of such a wild card. Most recently the global financial crisis brought financial trouble to several European states, most notably Greece and Iceland, although different brought in its wake governmental crises and civil unrest. The collapse of the Greek economy has worried stakeholders and governments throughout the Eurozone as it has the possibility to drag other economies down with it due to investment and financial ties with Greece in the form of exports and imports. Other European states are currently struggling to bring their deficits under control and face governmental crises as a result, such as Spain and Portugal. It is feared that these troubles may start to spread across Europe. Investors are also starting to refrain from any investment in European financial markets, which further exacerbates the crises. Governments in financially trouble countries also have to face fierce resistance to their plans of cutbacks in public spending. This has in some instances resulted in protests and civil unrest causing injuries and loss of life as well as damage to infrastructure. These financial crises touch the lives of ordinary citizens and many face bankruptcy and extreme financial difficulties. Individual bankruptcy and unemployment is on the rise and families face loosing their homes and livelihood. As well as this putting the strain on families it is also a heavy burden to bear for already straining public services systems. These are all weak signals for rising public disillusion with politics and the financial systems, which potentially puts at risk the social treaty people have with their governments. Governments and banks are no longer trusted and widespread lack of trust could potentially lead to further civil unrest as the aforementioned have lost their legitimacy in the eyes of the people.
Transformation of the European financial and political system.
Social Growing anger in the European electorate in more stable European countries about the use of their taxes to bail out other countries' economies.
Economic Growing soverign-debt of some European countries.
Political Reluctance of larger European economies to rescue countries with severe economic problems.
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests) Deterioration of European position in the world.
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) Implement stability policies; regulate financial markets; EU policy formed on how best to assist countries in dire financial condition. Regulate and monitor the situation to avoid it spiralling out of control; Keep tight reins on policy response, avoid panic and make sure that response is evidence based.
Business actors (incl. SMEs) Invest in European markets, goods and services; Support national and European policymakers in the implementation of economic measures. Avoid price speculation or drastic decisions; Try to continue “business as usual” for a few months until new economic situation becomes much clearer.
Academic/Research sector To promote research on the Euro zone and its strengths and limitations; Research should aim to pinpoint areas of weaknesses and suggest solutions; Research in economics and economic models will be necessary to better respond to a sudden disintegration. Continued research focus on the issues named above; Research community would need to continue presenting research findings that would promote understanding of markets, currency, economics, businesses and also social sciences should focus on keeping track of quality of life of EU residents and report any drastic changes so they may be tackled without delay.
Need to promote research on future changes in Europe’s monetary landscape. Recent shifts in the monetary landscape in the Europe indicate that stability is a key issue that needs to be carefully monitored. Recent events in Greece and Iceland, and worries over the state of affairs in Spain and Portugal, demonstrate how quickly financial problems can escalate and bring down a nation state’s entire economy. This has brought on civil unrest and governmental crises. Research in the field of European monetary policy is needed in order to provide an informed policy response in the face of financial crises. New strategies for extending research and innovation infrastructure over European space may be required.