The north London derby has became a must win fixture for the home team in Tottenham who have lost their last two matches while Arsenal have won three on the bounce in the Premier League. If the visitors prevail they would be just one point adrift of their neighbours. Tottenham would also have Manchester United breathing down their neck with three points against Southampton at Old Trafford.
However, its worth bearing in mind that Arsenal have beaten Tottenham just once in 10 trips to the old White Hart Lane and Wembley. The dynamics of derbies are such that recent form often goes out of the window and the main objective is avoiding defeat. Losing to your biggest rivals can be damaging so we can expect a cautious approach which makes the DRAW the bet at 13/5 with Ladbrokes.
West Ham and Newcastle are in mid-table safety, relatively free from relegation issues and not good enough to break into the top six or qualify for Europe. In ‘dead rubbers’ like this there is often a low bookings count. Players are not totally committed so there is less aggression and conflict. It’s a speculative bet but NO BOOKING at 16/1 with Paddy Power looks interesting.
Its rare that Kelso stages the highest level race of the day but the novices’ hurdle at 3.15 at the track is a Grade 2 contest and there are only Grade 3 jumps races elsewhere. However, the race could have implications for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The favourite at Kelso is Getaway Trump who was fourth behind Al Dancer in the Betfair Hurdle.
That horse is the favourite for the Festival opener and the form would be boosted if GETAWEAY TRUMP won impressively at the Borders track. The Paul Nicholls trained runner did not get the run of the race behind Al Dancer at Ascot and looks good value even at 8/11 with Ladbrokes. The outcome at Kelso will tell us how good Al Dancer could be and provide pointers for Cheltenham.
Liverpool and Manchester City have winnable matches at home in the Premier League on what could be a pivotal night for the destination of the trophy. While City should beat West Ham by at least one goal Liverpool have a massive test of character against Watford and it would be no surprise if they conceded. Watford are emerging as one of the best of the rest and Wolves loss at Huddersfield leaves them level on points in the race for seventh place with a game in hand which they play tonight.
Even Fulham scored against West Ham who will struggle not to concede in the first half. The Hammers have conceded the first goal in five of their last six matches against much inferior sides than tonight’s opponents at the Etihad. The CITY/CITY half time/full time result is 1/2 with Betfair. Watford have scored 22 goals away from home in the league this season but Liverpool have made Anfield a fortress so BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 9/10 with Paddy Power is the bet in this match.
The goalkeeper that refused to be substituted made all the news after Chelsea lost on penalties to Manchester City in the final of the EFL Cup. That episode hid the fact that Chelsea held City over 120 minutes and had chances to win the match. Chelsea play at home tonight against Tottenham who lost at Burnley last Saturday. However, that fixture finished 28 hours before the end of proceedings at Wembley. Chelsea looked drained and in turmoil so TOTTENHAM are the bet at 5/2 with Betfair.
There is an intriguing handicap chase over two miles and four furlongs at Wincanton (2.50) on a day of moderate action just 13 days before the Cheltenham Festival. The meeting dominates jumps racing and its bread and butter fare today. Overland Flyer is on a winnable mark and has form over the course and distance while Dentley De Mee has strong claims on form at a higher level. However, the veteran OPENING BATSMAN can compete and is the each way tip at 13/2 with Paddy Power.
If you are going to have one bet this weekend it should be on West Ham to beat Fulham at home tonight. Fulham have spent most money of the promoted teams but they are by far the worst of the three. They have won just two points out of 39 on the road. Fulham are eight points from safety but four defeats in five matches is relegation form and there seems to be a resignation to that outcome.
West Ham are not the most consistent team at home and have only won 5 out of 13 Premier League fixtures at the London Stadium. However, some decent players are returning from injury and Fulham have scored just three times in nine away fixtures. WEST HAM should be long odds-on to win this fixture but you can back them at 17/20 with Betfair and that price cannot be missed.
Cardiff host Watford in a non-televised fixture and the visitors have the quality to leave South Wales with three points. Cardiff have done well to reach 17th place as they did not go on a spending spree after promotion from the Championship last season. Relegation is still a distinct possibility but they have scrapped in fixtures and have won the last two in the league.
However, WATFORD are into the last eight of the FA Cup and just two points off seventh place in the Premier League so are also bankers to win tonight at 7/5 with Coral. The team combine a decent level of fighting spirit with some quality and that mix should be enough for a win in Cardiff tonight. If you want to gild the lily the DOUBLE on today’s two football tips pays about 7/2 with Betfair.
The number of Nationals is becoming ridiculous and Exeter stages the Devon version today at 4.20. It’s a handicap chase over three miles and six and a half furlongs and a test of stamina on good to soft ground. Cobolobo should be suited by the trip but does not have the form in the bank over fences. JEPECK has won races in the points sphere and can translate the form to a regulation race and is the bet at 6/1 with Coral.
It’s a day of trials for the Festival at Cheltenham and 11 ties in the fourth round of the FA Cup. By close of play some dreams will have been shattered and some will live on for bigger days in the future. For Everton it could be the former scenario as they have a tough match at Millwall in the Cup. The home side have to pick from a small squad but their Premier League opponents are not in good shape and the manager is under pressure to get a result. Everton have lost all but one of their last five road trips and that could become five from six because MILLWALL are fancied to win the tie in 90 minutes and that outcome is 7/2 with Paddy Power.
The first tie of the day is Accrington’s home match against Frank Lampard’s Derby. The decision to appoint the rookie but well connected former player is paying dividends for the Rams. However, this tie could be a task too far for a side still in contention for the Championship playoffs. Derby are more effective going forward than at the back and Accrington have a great recent home record in the FA Cup. Lampard could rotate his squad which makes ACCRINGTON the bet at 19/5 with Coral to win the tie in normal time.
AFC Wimbledon welcome West Ham for the third televised match of the day on the back of being the lowest scorers in League One. Conversely to Derby the hosts are a side with more issues up front than in defence and a strong West Ham side should get the job done. The manager did not send out the second string in the third round win over Birmingham and something similar is expected today. Wimbledon are bottom of League One and WEST HAM should have enough quality to win the by more than one goal, a result that can be backed at Evens with Paddy Power.
Away from Cheltenham the Class 1 listed handicap chase over three miles at Doncaster (3.15) is a lucrative and decent race. Dingo Dollar ticks most of the boxes and On Tour has the form and ratings to prevail, especially with the jockey’s five pounds claim. The blot on the handicap could be ART MAURESQUE based on higher level racing form and the horse looks overpriced at 10/1 with Coral.
The King George V1 Chase has a history of producing multiple winners over the last 10 years and only the last three winners have won the race once since 2008. Kauto Star, Long Run and Silviniaco Conti all won more than one King George over that spell and Thistlecrack can win the race again two years after winning it for the first time. The mid-season championship chase takes place over three miles at Kempton Park on Boxing Day. Some of the best chasers in the sport have won it.
Trends can provide clues for the potential winners of championship races. Grade 1 races over fences are run at the same tracks and date from year to year and there are some established trials. The profile of past winners can help to identify the leading contenders for the upcoming race. The King George is a major trail for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the second most important steeplechase of the season. Over the last decade the background of the winner has had a number of factors in common which in some cases have been without exception.
The King George attracts the best staying chasers in Britain and Ireland and sometimes from further afield. Francois Doumen often brought his best chasers to run in the race from France. From 1987 to 2000 he won the King George five times with four different horses. The common factor was that his winners were amongst the best rated chasers when he travelled to Kempton over Christmas. However, Kauto Star (2011) was the last winner to also win the Gold Cup. Long Run, Best Mate and Kicking King have also won both races this century.
Every winner of the King George over the last 10 years has had an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 174. All but one winner in that spell had run in eight chases or more. Nine of that 10 had been successful in at least one Grade 1 chase and the same number won the King George aged from six to nine. Two trends have delivered four times out of five so 80% of the winners have won a graded chase from 2 miles 4 furlongs to 2 miles and 6 furlongs and been rated within 6lbs of the top rated runner. All but two of the last 10 winners also had chase winning form over three miles or more. Six winners had run in the King George before.
There are a number of intended runners in the 2018 race who meet some of the qualifying criteria for possible winners. More significantly the trainer to follow in staying races is Colin Tizzard. He won the Gold Cup last season with Native River and two of the last three King George’s with Cue Card and Thistlecrack. Cue Card has been retired but Native River and Thistlecrack are still in the declared runners for the King George and the latter is best suited to the track. Native River could have some limitations exposed going right-handed at Kempton.
Thistlecrack is proven over the course and distance. The horse has not won a race since the Boxing Day feature in 2016. However, Thistlecrack ran a promising trial in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. The horse charged up the home straight better than any of the other runners without the jockey asking too many questions. Thistlecrack produced an RPR just two pounds below his best and that form and rating and other elements makes Thistlecrack the trends selection for the King George.
If you were asked to select Manchester City’s best 11 John Stones, David Silva, Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne would be on the team sheet. If you were asked to name one Everton player who is indispensable the name of Idrissa Gueye would unlikely to feature. All five players will be absent today when Manchester City are at home to Everton in a fixture that has produced a draw in the last three seasons.
City have won nine home Premier League matches in a row but Everton have not been disgraced against top six teams on their travels. At the latest odds the DRAW is the bet of this match at 13/2 with bet365. These two teams have won more corners than anybody else in the Premier League this season.
Fulham and West Ham who meet at Craven Cottage today are in the bottom half of the table for corners won. The home team are on course to break the record for goals conceded in a 38-match Premier League season. The Hammers have won six league matches this season but only kept a clean sheet in one of those fixtures.
Fulham are at the bottom of the table while West Ham have won three EPL matches on the bounce. Fulham have the worst defence in the division but West Ham usually concede when they win a match. The trends suggest a West Ham win with both teams scoring but a more cautious option is just BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 8/15 with William Hill.
The racing Press have caught up with how unlucky Rather Be was in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The horse is all the rage to win the second big handicap chase at Cheltenham before Christmas today. The International Hurdle (3.05) is also an intriguing race which The New One is trying to win for the fourth time. Jumping let Summerville Boy down against Samcro and Buvuer D’Air at Newcastle but the horse still won the Festival opener in March after making a pig’s ear of the last two hurdles. SUMMERVILLE BOY is the horse to back at 3/1 with Betfair.
Three teams are unbeaten after 10 matches for just the third time in the history of top flight football in England. Manchester City and Chelsea have not suffered a defeat yet and Liverpool are the third club who have picked up points from all their fixtures in the Premier League. Arsenal lost their first two league matches but have since won the last eight.
That means something has to give when Liverpool play them at the Emirates today. There have been at least four goals in the last five meetings but Arsenal score most of their goals after the break. Liverpool are league leaders for results before half-time so a decent bet is the LIVERPOOL/ARSENAL double result at 33/1 with Ladbrokes.
The early live televised match is Bournemouth’s home fixture against Manchester United. The league table does not lie and the hosts are above their illustrious opponents after just over one quarter of the season. Jose Mourinho targets competitions and as United cannot win the league the Champions League becomes more important. BOURNEMOUTH are unbeaten in the league at home this season and can extend that run with threw points today which is the bet at 14/5 with bet365.
Tottenham have been in the news for several wrong reasons but a win at West Ham in the EFL Cup could be a turning point. The club are now regular Champions League qualifiers and opponents Wolves in an evening fixture were promoted from the Championship last season. Tottenham have not lost to a newly-promoted club in 38 meetings. The visitors are still not at their best so the DRAW is the tip and that outcome is 12/5 with Coral.
It’s the second night of the Breeders’ Cup and there are nine Grade 1 races on the card this evening. Roaring Lion is on the drift for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 9.44 due to the nature of the dirt surface and an unfavourable draw. The horse has won four Group 1 races in Britain this season but has only raced on turf. ACCELERATE has been drawn on the outside but can win a Breeders’ Cup contest for a third year and is best priced at 4/1 with William Hill.
Leicester have lost their last two league matches which is hardly a crisis. The manager is under pressure and a home defeat to West Ham today would not help his cause. The visitors have spent a fortune, go through managers like they are going out of fashion and have left their spiritual home. Things could go from bad to worse today.
Leicester have kept four clean sheets in their last 23 matches during which they have let in 43 goals. However, West Ham have not found the net in five of nine Premier League matches this season and several players will be absent due to injury today. LEICESTER are the team to back at 6/5 with William Hill.
The England tour of Sri Lanka continues today with a one-off T20 international in Colombo. Bizarrely the tour has been scheduled during the monsoon season and the One Day International was severely affected by heavy rain. Amid the showers England won the series 2-1 and the only defeat was in the final match which was a dead rubber. Both sides have won four of the last eight T20 matches so on form and with home advantage the value lies in backing SRI LANKA at 13/8 with Ladbrokes.
The race formerly known as the Racing Post Trophy is the last Group 1 contest of the Flat season and takes place over one mile at Doncaster today (4.05) . Fillies are eligible and would get a three pound allowance but none are taking part. Saxon Warrior, trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore won the race last year, beating Roaring Lion into second place. The trainer’s leading fancy in the race today will be ridden by his son, Donnacha. MANGA GRECIA is the tip at 6/4 with bet365.
The only team with a perfect five match record in the Premier League is Arsenal and before Thursday’s Europa League match against Sporting in Lisbon they had won ten matches in succession in all competitions. Crystal Palace have lost their last three fixtures in the Premier League so on form will struggle to avoid defeat against Arsenal in the early match on Saturday. Arsenal can still be backed at 33/1 to win the title and despite some relatively easy fixtures in the run of wins that looks a big price.
The odds-on favourites to be champions of England this season are Manchester City. The defending champions have dropped just four points in nine matches and have scored 26 goals and conceded three. City have the best goal difference in the Premier League by 10 goals but Liverpool are still level on points and are still unbeaten after a quarter of the season. A home match against Cardiff should provide three points which will take them to the top of the table at least until Monday night.
Next week’s Monday Night Football is City’s match away from home against Tottenham. If the building had gone to schedule this match would have been played at the new White Hart Lane. However, there have been delays which means Tottenham are still playing their home matches at Wembley. It will be interesting to see the state of the pitch after the NFL match last Sunday. It is unsatisfactory that a key Premier League fixture could be played on a poor surface due to another sport using the pitch.
The delayed move to the new stadium is one of a number of issues at Tottenham. Its one thing to be satisfied with your squad and not buy new players in the summer but leaving yourself short is another matter. Dele Alli is one of a number of injury absentees which have revealed a thin squad. Tottenham played a crucial match against PSV Eindhoven on Wednesday after losing on both the first two match days. Real Madrid may be in the market for a new manager and Mauricio Pochettino could be in the frame. With all this going on the last team you want to meet is Manchester City.
The current league leaders have scored eight goals in their last two matches without conceding. The 5-0 home win against Burnley last Saturday is typical of last season. City never looked in any danger and once a couple of marginal decisions went their way it was just a question of how many goals. The champions are averaging almost three goals per match in the league and have let in just one goal in four matches on the road. Tottenham could be facing a crisis because City can win the meeting at Wembley which would leave them five points adrift of leaders.
Jose Mourinho seems to be surviving as the manager of Manchester United on a game-by-game basis. However, they were close to beating Chelsea in the league and were not disgraced against Juventus in the Champions League. A number of ex-players are having their say but a home win against Everton could steady the ship. The league title has now gone but Mourinho may target the Champions League and winning that would justify his appointment. United can beat Everton at Old Trafford.
Leicester gave Arsenal a game in the first half but were eventually outclassed. However, there was no shame in being beaten by a team in great form. West Ham had the chances to share the points against Tottenham. Hugo Lloris was in inspired form and Tottenham kept a clean sheet and scored the only goal. Leicester can make home advantage count and beat West Ham at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.