When it comes to settling international disputes, diplomacy is always preferable to shooting. That�s never been more true than in the standoff between Iran and Western nations (more correctly, between Iran and the rest of the world) over Tehran�s nuclear program.
The Iranians insist theirs is peaceful research and that they only want to use nuclear power for generating electricity. Few outside Iran are buying those assurances. The widespread view is that Iran is focused on producing nuclear weapons. So far, the strategy to convince Tehran to adhere to international obligations concerning its nuclear program has been a combination of ongoing talks and ever-stricter economic sanctions.
Signs are that the sanctions are having a crippling effect on Iran�s economy and currency. Unfortunately, it�s the Iranian people who are suffering the most while the country�s leaders remain unmoved. The deaths of several Iranian nuclear scientists in bomb attacks have only served to harden Iran�s resolve. In response to the West�s pressure and tightening sanctions, the Iranians have threatened to close down the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world�s oil is transported. The U.S. fleet remains a presence in the region, further heightening tensions and sending oil prices skyrocketing.
As the sanctions continue to strangle Iran economically, diplomacy was dealt another blow this week when United Nations inspectors were refused access to a suspected explosives-testing site southeast of Tehran. Further discussions between Iranian officials and representatives from the U.S., Great Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China are in jeopardy.
Israel clearly faces a dilemma: wait for what it believes is inevitable attack, or take steps to defend itself and surely launch a catastrophe.
Lieberman is wrong on one point, however. What happens in the Middle East between two enemy nations � one very likely armed with nuclear weapons and the other trying to develop them � is everyone�s business. Should Israel strike Iran, retaliation would be swift and devastating. The entire region could easily become a war zone, with missiles flying all over the place and conventional forces mobilizing everywhere.
Given such a scenario, would the United States be able to ignore Israel, its ally, and remain on the sidelines? If it could, would that be the right thing to do? In either case, what would happen to the world�s economies and to all those nations heavily dependent on oil from the Middle East � including China?
Most military people are quite clear on this: U.S. intervention into a Middle East conflict involving Iran would be an absolute nightmare. Any fighting could very easily get out of control and serve as a trigger for setting off other regional warfare � on the Korean peninsula, for example, or between longtime rivals India and Pakistan (both with nuclear capability).
Only a diplomatic solution can defuse the growing crisis and prevent what would be a tragedy of unknown proportion. Diplomacy must work. The alternative is too terrible to imagine.