Throughout 2018, automated driving technology continued to inch toward a commercial launch at scale. However, scale remains a relative term in the overall context of the automotive industry. As the companies developing this technology continue to grapple with the realities of reliable functionality in a broad range of real world conditions, new questions continue to be raised about the robustness of the technology and the viability of different business models. Early 2018 saw the first fatality attributed directly to a failure of automated driving technology among other automated vehicle (AV)-related accidents.
Despite those incidents, leading companies have continued to prepare for the commercial launch of geofenced automated mobility services using Level 4 highly automated vehicles (HAVs). Deployments will be limited to select cities in the early 2020s before expanding more rapidly later in the decade. There is potential for significant societal benefits like improved safety, reduced congestion, greater adoption of electrification, and the ability to repurpose land currently set aside to park idle vehicles. Cities are actively investigating how to integrate automated vehicles into the mobility ecosystem to ensure equitable benefits and commercial viability for as many stakeholders as possible. Coordination will be needed to minimize downsides like increased empty vehicles miles traveled.
This Navigant Research report provides projections of the size of regional markets for consumer and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Global market sales and vehicle population projections for consumer vehicles under three different scenarios extend through 2035. The report also examines the breakdown by category for commercial vehicles with driving automation, separating medium and heavy duty trucks and medium and heavy duty buses.
When will the first automated driving vehicles come to market?
How fast will annual sales grow for automated consumer and commercial vehicles?
How will different levels of automated driving affect the global vehicle population?
When will various world regions adopt automated driving vehicles?
Which commercial vehicle categories will experience the strongest growth in automated driving?