According to a flash GDP estimate released by the National Statistics Institute (INE) on 15 May, the economy lost some pace in the first quarter of the year, growing at the weakest stride since Q4 2016. Economic growth in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms moderated to 0.4%, following an expansion of 0.7% in Q4 2017.
Meanwhile, economic growth on an annual basis slowed to 2.1% in the first quarter of the year, down from 2.4% in the final quarter of last year. While a comprehensive breakdown of the quarter-on-quarter result will be released on 30 May, the preliminary estimate indicates that the positive contribution from domestic demand was unchanged, as a slight acceleration in investment was offset by a marginal slowdown in private consumption. On the other hand, the external sector dragged more severely on growth, as exports of decelerated more sharply than imports.
The Bank of Portugal projects the economy will expand 2.3% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2019.