Last week, during a discussion on the Facebook Group 'Boys in Green' regarding the ability, or rather the lack of, of Pakistan's batsmen in ODIs, a fellow member Aoun Jafarey brought up the ‘rotation rate’ and used it to assess how Pakistan's batsmen are lagging far behind all other ODI batsmen playing the game today. In a similar discussion with another friend, we brought up the ‘boundary rate’ to explain the same issue of why Pakistan's ODI batting is suffering.
Let me first explain what the ‘rotation rate’ and ‘boundary rate’ are.
The rotation rate (RR) is the number of runs a batsman scores off the deliveries that are not hit for a boundary. The RR basically signifies how well a batsman rotates strike, which is an essential component of building a partnership and easing the pressure, particularly in ODIs. Smashing fours and sixes is all well and good, but what batsmen manage on deliveries that are not pummeled to the boundary goes a long way in defining their innings.
The boundary rate (BR) is the number of deliveries a batsman faces before he hits a four or a six. The BR demonstrates how quickly a batsman scores boundaries, which has become the way of ‘modern’ ODI batting, a term used frequently by new captain Azhar Ali since taking charge.
Let us take a look at a recent instance: Azhar Ali's maiden ODI century in the third ODI against Bangladesh. Azhar scored 101 off 112 deliveries with 10 fours, meaning that if you take out the 40 runs he scored in 10 deliveries, Azhar managed 61 runs off the other 102 deliveries that he faced - a rotation rate of 59.8. He had a boundary rate of 11.2, implying that he hit every 11th delivery for a four.
Is that good or not? How does that compare with other batsmen of this era? What is the benchmark for RR and BR for ODI batsmen? Here is what we discovered.
For a historical perspective, here are the rotation and boundary rates of batsmen with over 10,000 runs in ODIs. The average RR for these batsmen is 47.6, essentially meaning that they rotate the strike on average every two (and a bit) deliveries. The average BR is 12.5, implying that that they hit a four or six after every 12 deliveries on average.
We all know that the ODI game has changed significantly over the years. Rule changes regarding power-plays and fielding restrictions, batting friendly pitches, and better bats have all contributed towards inflated scores, averages, and strike rates. Similarly, the Rotation and Boundary Rates of leading run scorers in ODIs over the past 5 years have improved as well.
Based on the top 10 run scorers of the past five years, the average RR is 53.2 and the average BR is 11.1. Players like Virat Kohli, Hashim Amla, Suresh Raina, and AB De Villiers have rotation and boundary rates that are significantly above average.
It is no surprise that Pakistani batsmen featuring in this list are at the bottom end of the table, demonstrating their lack of ability to rotate strike and hit boundaries. The problem is exacerbated when one considers the case of Misbah-ul-Haq, who has an extremely depressing boundary rate, and combines that with someone like Mohammad Hafeez who has the lowest rotation rate among these batsmen. Can you imagine what it is like when these two are out there in the middle in an ODI? Of course you can, we have all been through this torture.
We have seen the difference in RR and BR for batsmen. Now we look at how this extrapolates to a difference among ODI teams. In the table below, it is quite evident that not only does Pakistan have a poor rotation rate compared to other teams, they have quite a poor boundary rate as well. In fact, Pakistan's BR is the worst among all teams barring England. While West Indies has the worst RR among all teams, they do make up for it by being big boundary hitters and they have the best BR in the business, alongside New Zealand.
What the above table shows is that South Africa on average hit 32 boundaries in every ODI and score 153 runs off the remaining 268 deliveries. If we assume that the 32 boundaries include 8 sixes then that gives you an average total of 297. Similarly, the average totals for New Zealand and Australia are 299 and 287 respectively. The same for Pakistan is 258, which is the worst among all teams barring England, who are worse off by only 2 runs.
At a time when ODI batsmen are scoring consistently at a strike rate of 90, hitting boundaries on average every 9th delivery, and turning strike over more frequently than every 2nd delivery, Pakistan's batsmen are scoring at strike rates of less than 80, hitting boundaries on average every 11th delivery, and turning strike over less frequently than every 2nd delivery.
Those two extra deliveries that Pakistani batsmen take to hit a boundary leads to a difference of 4-5 less boundaries than teams like India, South Africa, and Australia in a 50 over game. The low rotation rate leads to a difference of 7-17 runs. This range of 23 to 37 runs is the difference between Pakistan and world class ODI cricket at the moment.
A look at the rotation and boundary rates of Pakistani batsmen in ODIs since 1st January 2010 paints a very depressing picture.
While batsmen like Sarfraz Ahmed, Fawad Alam, Umar Akmal, Younis Khan, and Haris Sohail do have rotation rates that are around the current benchmark for ODI batsmen, their boundary rates are appalling. Batsmen that have good boundary rates, Hafeez and Kamran Akmal, have atrocious rotation rates. Only two batsmen in that list have RR and BR at par with ODI batsmen around the world - Umar Akmal and Sohaib Maqsood. While one has run out of favor with the management, the other has not been utilized to his full potential and is currently out injured.
Shahid Afridi is at the top of the table. He has rotation and boundary rates that are not only well above the world average but also among the best in the business. However, his volume of runs is too low to make a regular impact. Any batting comparison that results in Shahid Afridi at the top of the pile for Pakistan shows how depleted our batting stocks are at the moment.
While a 3-0 loss to Bangladesh is a cause for worry for Pakistan cricket, a deeper assessment of batting woes shows that at the end of the day it is a matter of 20-30 runs that can make a difference in the current environment. However, this improvement requires significant work and effort on both the physical and mental aspects of Pakistani batsmen. Improved fitness can help batsmen rotate strike more efficiently, while enhanced mental strength is required in order to have some degree of confidence against the oppositions bowling.
Additionally, a better use of the resources available will also go a long way in improving Pakistan's batting in ODIs. Using Fawad Alam at number 6 is completely unjustified and I fail to understand how the best minds in cricket in Pakistan don't understand that.
Umar Akmal can't be left discarded for too long because he is one of the few batsmen that Pakistan have who matches world class batsmen in terms of strike rate, rotation rate, and boundary rate.
Sohaib Maqsood started his ODI career at number 3 and his first two innings resulted in fifty plus scores. However, after that he was utilized at number 6 or 7 for reasons best known to the team management. Sarfraz Ahmed has shown what he can do as an opener, yet after failing to score in two innings at that position, he was dropped.
Constantly changing the batting order doesn't help any team. Pakistan has witnessed significant success at the Test level and the primary reason for this is the fact that they have a stable top 6, which has performed commendably over the past five years. The same cannot be said for the ODI team, which has seen a high number of changes in not only the personnel but also the way they are used.
Pakistan will be better served if the management can identify the right batsmen for each position and provide them with enough confidence to play at those positions without fear. Only then can further improvement be sought in terms of other physical and mental aspects.
No wonder many experts and fans question influence of misbah on Pakistani odi ckt. Stats show he has created this defensive slow scoring culture!
Great analysis. Highlighting stats is extremely important for Pakistani fans because stats do not lie. In fact I think PCB should hire a top class statistician as a full time staff for the selection committee. The above analysis would be even more meaningful when we realize that while our batsmen cannot hit boundaries or run singles/twos, our fielders give away easy boundaries and runs. Hence the difference is probably not that of 20 - 30 runs, its closer to 50 - 60 runs. Yes on average our fielders give away 25 runs more than teams like SA, Australia or NZ. Even SL and India are far far better fielders. Secondly its about time we started looking at the runs given away as fielder when selecting a batsman or a bowler. For example, Kamran Akmal's "net" batting average has to be negative or close to zero.
@Zibbi Couldn't agree more. It is Misbah who instilled this defensive approach in this team. To me he damaged Pakistani cricket more than Waqar Younis did as a coach.
I still believe that in present scenario of Pakistan cricket team, MisBah is the most valuable defensive batman in the side. He knows the capabilities of his other batsmen and plays so defensively that he cares that he has to take the team to the target almost single handedly. If he were sure about his other team mates, he would have surely played like Afridi and his likes. Afridi, the boom boom just sparkles for a while but fizzles out soon.
Thanks, this is a very good analysis. Umar and Sohaib has got what it takes. It is unfortunate that management can't see Umar playing up the order. AB, Kohli, Amla they all play up the order to set the platform for others. There is an aspect missing from this analysis is the mindset of our players. Cricket is no longer the game where a fix plan would work, you have change accordingly to conditions which Pakistani players have failed to so. There is difference between 'play the game to win' vs 'play the game to not to lose'. Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, if we need to change the mindset and techniques (including wobbly fielding), our fragile domestic structure would need to change significant in order to compete. It is now or never!
Weakness pointed out perfectly regarding Ahmed Shahzad, Hafeez, Umar Akmal, Sohaib Maqsood, Fawad Alam, Haris Sohail, Sarfaraz Ahmed. These are the limited overs batsmen that need to be given confidence and the right slot to be effective.
Mohammad Rizwan is new and that is why missing from the list. Add to that Afridi and Wahab and Pakistan's batting order is not as bad as it performs due to constant axing and shuffling of the key players.
Afridi on top of any list should raise red flags. This analysis justifies Umar Akmal's spot in the playing 11 totally ignoring other factors. I do agree with the fact that the RR and BR are far behind the international levels but nothing justifies bringing Umar Akmal back at this point in time.
Other stats that can be highlighted should include that lack of performance by top 4 batsmen over last 5 years. I guarantee you, Pakistan would score at the bottom on the table compared to other international teams. Average run rates and batting partnerships are scarce on Pakistani ODI side. All of these factors make up for the dismal picture today.
Bangladesh team has got five coaches, one physio, one doctor and one moulvi, to help the players win.
Replace Waqar Yunis with Wasim Akram as coach.
Make Rashid Latif PCB chief.
Bring in 3 or 5 ex-cricketer (like Miandad, Basit, Bazid Khan) as selectors.
Don't blame misbah. Pakistan cricket is a reflection of how Pakistanis are falling behind in every thing . They are arrogant and ignorant people who have no desire to learn and improve. I fear Pakistan will decline much further if people themselves don't realise that they have to change.
I seriously don't understand such complicated maths..... for me there are three reasons and not two for Pakistan not doing well as other teams. 1) Batting (2) Bowling and (3) Fielding. It is as simple as that.
Pakistan need money to be infused...Pakistan should ask its irn friend China to invest in PCB,in return PCB can send senior retired cricketers to coach Chinese.
When you don't have the material then solutions on papers can't help much. Yes in subcontinent and in WI, you can plan to score with a RR and BR at the top order but when we play in England, Australia, SA and NZ, you need master blasters at 5,6 and 7. Pakistan's delimma starts at the top as Ahmad Shehzad is too slow in rotating and his SR is only 72. Pakistan can only afford one batsman with bellow 80 SR. Haris Sohail is another player whom you don't want to leave out but at the same time you can't afford to have as he literly has no imposing shot at all. He is consistant but scores with nudges and effortless touches of the pads where the ball is never meant to reach the boudry even if not fielded. I think, Pakistan needs to play Umar Akmal, Sohaib and Sarfraz at 3, 4 and 5. Shoaib Malik may be the best choice at 6 for now and Afridi could be given the captaincy in ODIs and could be asked to keep going until replacements are found. Also don't forget bowling which has failed badly.
comparing greats with hafiz and inzamam..please dont compare them with other greats..
actually after winning 2009 cric t20 worldcup pak shud av been strong hitters with bat..but instead they turned worst..its simple formula..nowadays u need to hit boundaries more..even 1 boundary in an over..the rest u can take singles or 2...but must have boundaries...thats the only solution..simple n clean..forget about bowling...nowadays average bowling is enough..like indian..they have storng batsmen..only..can be number 2 in world.
Great report. It maens the selectors have been selecting the wrong team for the ODI matches. These stats are good for a test team but not for ODI. Only four players qualify to be in the ODI as per stats. Pakistan needs to include at-least three players with better RR and prefer those who are better fileders. Probably in a years time we can find batsmen for ODI to compete with international teams by a process of elimination. Bring in new players give them two chances if thye fail in both replace them with other new players.
This is new way of thinking, nice idea. But look at Sachin's stats..Also one interesting thing to find, compare Suresh Raina and Misbah, they have similar records but Raina's stas reveal that he is playing ODI and Misbah? Test cricket in ODI?
Excellent analysis, Please send a copy to PCB. Good Job Umair Qazi and Dawn..
@Shahnawaz Does WY have any time to read this excellent analysis? He would be busy contacting people who matter most to save his neck.
Excellent root cause analysis for Pakistan's batting failures. Thanks to PCB we lost Muhammad Yousuf who could have been a much better role model to our younger batsmen in the art of milking runs.
Great analysis! I think it will make sense to compare the batsman of the same order. For example, Misbah should be compared to other batsmen who bat 2/3 down. I bet most of them have much better stats.
I was shocked one day when I saw Hafeez on a tv channel getting very impressed by some very simple and straight firward stats. Much simpler than these figures. It clearly means that PCB is lacking in statistical analysis as well which is absolutely mandatory and not at all difficult to attain.
Excellent and to the point analysis, couldn't agree more!
Terribly disappointed with the comments. Nobody blaming the Big 3 or the BCCI. This is not done.
no one can blame misbah for his stats because if the opposition recalls how many times did he took the crease when Pakistan was in strong position in a game? Every time he came in 4 out of 5 times the team was 3 down for a meager sum of runs. He did what any batsman would do in a situation i.e. dig in.
It is acceptable that ok, the Pakistani players who have made enough runs have lower RR or BR, however the main problem does not get highlighted. There are sort of players who have not scored more than 250 runs despite having played an average of 8-10 matches, like Shahid Afridi, Umer Akmal etc.
The lower averages are the main concern of your team not the RR or BR.
Rotation of strike is key. PCB should hire Michael Bevan or Hussey (former australian batsmen) to teach young batsmen how to perfect this art at domestic level.
I think the RR should instead compute the dot balls per player to the total number of balls played to get a better understanding.
We have had a string of dismal performances in cricket. It is time we go all out preparing for T20 world cup. Unless we reach at least to finals there, it might be impossible to revive the game of cricket in Pakistan.
@Zibbi "Stats show Misbah has created this defensive slow scoring culture" A leader is as good as his team. Every single time, if a leader has to compensate for other team-member's failures, you cannot realistically expect him to perform, can you? Misbah is the pillar behind Pakistan few victories. If he ever got a team with better average RR and BR, maybe his own RR and BR would have been better.
Excellent! That's the way........... of doing things!!
One important piece of information missing in this analysis is the number of catches Pakistan players drop while fielding. Pakistan players drop many more catches than any other team.
Very educative analysis for lay-man like me.Thanks.
People here are too unfair on Misbah. He doesn't have the luxury of batting with Suresh Raina or Mahela Jayawardhane at the other end and his boundaries dry up due to the pressure of keeping wickets in hand.
A batsman's performance also reflects the kind of partners he got.
Well, referring to the point in most of the cases 20-30 extra run through strike rotation do prove to be a winning factor but not in this 3-0 loss against BAN. Now we face a challenge more severe and abrupt than the matter of rotation rate amongst batsmen. We do the batters play awkward shots to get out? Why is there so restlessness in the batting order? Where has the timing gone? and most importantly Why is our bowling not clicking (it has nothing to do with RR and BR? The team has bigger issues, which could include confidence as one and team management, politics, transparency in board, and many more as others and vital. Now on the players; Azhar Mhmd and Razzak would have best BR and RR in the business with the volume of runs if given chance Bottom line , why don't our batters be like the new lads joining the team of AUS, INDIA and SA and scoring tons? This is something deep and PCB to research upon. I am not paid to do this. I would have done it if I would have been paid to.
Great analysis and thank you for proving that continuing with the Misbah approach is going to sink us deeper into the abyss rather than bringing us to the shore. It pains me to see that PCB including Waqar Younis cannot see that the cricket has changed and we need to let go of the age old approach of keeping wickets in hand and then going all out in the last 10 overs.
Man, that was so well pitched! I wonder what level of analysis our coaching staff performs, these numbers tell you exactly where to improve!
NO matter how many analysis are done. Team selection has always been biased.Lahore's influence on cricket board has to end. Give priority to talent and fair selection of players and not where the players comes from.
Analysis will not be complete, if you do not consider the average runs scored in match by the batsman. Or else, some fierce cricketers who gets out before 20 can top the list. Also calculate the average runs scored by the first three batsman in each team . That would give an account of the pressure faced by the next players (like Misbah). Figures are good, but not complete.
Your article is interesting but stats not surprising. I would suggest you also look at the number of dropped catches by Pak team compared to other teams will find that this is also another major contributary factor.