First was a chaotic election full of curveballs. Then an eerie calm before the storm. Now Toronto City Hall is set to roar back to life with a much smaller council facing many big issues.
Mayor John Tory and 25 councillors with supersized wards will gather Tuesday for a ceremonial debut. The re-elected mayor will once again bow his head and receive the chain of office, introduce a council that includes four new faces and then lay out his vision for the four years ahead.
A day later they meet again to get down to business, debating how to reorganize the council structure so that 26 politicians can do the same work as 45 in the last term. Council was set to expand to 47 wards until Premier Doug Ford’s government cut council almost in half mid-election.
After setting the new structure, Toronto’s governing body will be tasked in the months ahead with deciding how to deal with a host of major issues facing residents of a city that is booming, but also struggling with inequities in who enjoys the benefits and suffers the costs of that success.
Many of those issues are hangovers from the past, such as implementing short-term rental rules that are being challenged at a provincial tribunal and the ever-present Scarborough subway debate.
And, because it’s Toronto city hall, there will be fresh curve balls and crises we can’t foresee. Ford, in particular, might have more surprises in store for the council to which he once belonged.
Rail Deck Park: Torontonians looked longingly at plans for a 21-acre park decked over the downtown rail corridor when it was first announced, unexpectedly, back in 2016 with Tory at the forefront of the plan. But the price tag — currently standing at $1.66 billion — is not the only hitch. Developers’ claims over the air rights above the rail corridor — which the city would need to acquire in order to build the deck structure — has led to an appeal at the Local Planning Appeal Tribunal, the remade Ontario Municipal Board which is responsible for most disputes on land use issues. The appeal comes after council rejected a development application from P.I.T.S. Developments Inc. to build eight towers on a deck with a 12-acre park. The city says they want to preserve the area for parkland only. That appeal is scheduled for May 2019. A new report from city staff is expected in the first half of next year.
Scarborough subway: This ongoing, controversial transit plan looms large over Tory as the new term begins. The six-kilometre subway extension is proposed from the existing Kennedy Station on the Bloor-Danforth line to just a single new stop at the Scarborough Town Centre. It will replace the existing six-stop Scarborough RT. The project has changed twice since council and the province first agreed to build a seven-stop LRT that was to be fully-funded by the province. Council, under Rob Ford’s administration, flip-flopped to a three-stop subway that would serve fewer people for more money — taxing Toronto homeowners for 30 years and beyond. The now one-stop plan is currently estimated to cost at least $3.35 billion. An updated and more accurate cost estimate is expected in January, when council must decide whether to proceed with building the extension. The issue is, council only has $3.56 billion earmarked for transit improvements in Scarborough. Now that Doug Ford is premier and there is movement to upload the responsibility for subways to the province, it’s unclear what will happen if the updated cost is more than budgeted.
Short-term rentals and vehicles for hire: Regulating the “sharing economy” will continue to be a hot topic. One year ago, city council voted to allow Airbnb and other short-term home rentals with restrictions, including a ban on nightly rentals of self-contained basement apartments aimed at preventing the loss of affordable monthly rentals. But apartment owners appealed the bylaw to the provincial Local Planning Appeal Tribunal which will not hear arguments until August 2019, and might not rule immediately. That means apartments continue to be converted, for now, and the LPAT could order the city to amend its rules. On the Uber front, council in 2016 approved rules to regulate such app-based “ride-hailing” services with caveats including a city staff review of how those rules are working. That review is way overdue, with a report now pegged for spring 2019. Taxi owners and operators, meanwhile, have launched an attempted $1.7-billion class-action lawsuit alleging the city has failed to properly regulate the private transportation industry and trashed the value of their taxi plates.
Affordable housing: As a key promise during the mayoral campaign, expect movement on this file. Tory vowed to create 40,000 new affordable rental units in 12 years. That builds on a program started by the mayor last term called Open Door, which incentives developers to build more affordable units by offering fee waivers and government land at low to no cost. However, that program has been making slow progress. The city’s existing goal is to create 1,000 new affordable rental units each year. While 1,200 units were approved in 2017, only 210 were built, according to city data. Just over half of the goal was anticipated to be built in 2018. In order to triple the existing target, the city will have to find a way to speed up approvals and building. Tory has not indicated the program will operate much differently than it does today, so it’s unclear how this will be achieved as Toronto becomes the most expensive rental market in the country.
Council composition: After threatening to invoke the “notwithstanding clause,” which allows the province to overthrow a court decision, the Ford government convinced an appeal court to set aside, at least temporarily, a judge’s decision that found the council cut was unconstitutional. That allowed the 25-ward election to proceed on Oct. 22, but the issue is far from settled. The city and others will be in the Court of Appeal in June fighting to reinstate the 47-ward system approved by council after years of consultation and study. Legal observers say even if the city wins, however, it is very unlikely a court would invalidate the results of the October election. In the meantime, after making initial decisions this month, council will have to figure out how to best govern Canada’s biggest city with a dramatically reduced amount of political oversight.
The mayor’s control of council: What direction Toronto takes on many of these issues depends on Tory’s grip on city council. In his first term, by building a team of mostly suburban allies and largely freezing out downtown representatives, the centre-right mayor was able to get a majority of votes on most issues. He had to work for it though, just barely winning the Gardiner Expressway battle and later agreeing to compromise. It will be spring or later before we know how votes are lining up for Tory on the 26-member council and if there will be a “mushy middle” that can tip the balance. A wild card is the possible introduction of a “strong mayor” system that would immediately expand Tory’s power, including a possible veto over council decisions. Tory previously said he wants a strong mayor system, and Ford seemed eager to grant his wish, but neither have said much on the subject since the autumn fight over the size of council.
The budget: The first big debate of a new term is always an important one: How to allocate money in the city’s $13-billion operating budget. As in previous terms, the first budget is often led by staff. This time, all city divisions and agencies have been asked to try to meet a zero-per-cent increase target. But with the city growing at a rapid pace, that could mean service cuts if approved by council. As always, it’s a balancing act. Unlike other levels of government, the city is not allowed to run a deficit. Vital programs are often left on the chopping block, including initiatives under the poverty reduction plan that include things like expanding the student nutrition program. Also up for debate this year is whether to finally provide the city’s youth equity strategy, designed in 2014 to address the roots of youth violence with adequate funding. It has for years survived on less than $500,000 when it was initially planned to be fully implemented with $15.8 million.