North America: How Long Can the United States Remain the Main Engine of Global Growth?
Why Are Some Emerging Market Countries Relatively Unaffected by the Financial Crisis?
What Are the Implications of the U.S. Saving-Investment Imbalance?
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their average levels during February 16–March 15. 1999 except for the bilateral rates among the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary polices in industrial countries, see Box 1.1); that the average price of oil will be $12.00 a barrel in 1999 and $13.60 a barrel in 2000, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month London inter-bank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 5.2 percent in both 1999 and 2000. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available in early-April 1999.
Primary contributors to the current issue include Francesco Caramazza, John H. Green, Peter Sturm, Mark De Broeck, Luca Ricci, Ranil Salgado, Phillip Swagel, Cathy Wright, and Harm Zebregs. Other contributors include Paula De Masi, Esteban Jadresic, Douglas Laxton, and Robert Sharer. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the structural budget and fiscal impulse measures. Gretchen Gallik, Mandy Hemmati, Yutong Li, and Anthony G. Turner provided research assistance. Allen Cobler, Nicholas Dopuch, Isabella Dymarskaia, Yasoma Liyanarachchi, Olga Plagie, and Irim Siddiqui processed the data and managed the computer systems. Susan Duff, Caroline Bagworth, and Lisa Marie Scott-Hill were responsible for word processing. James McEuen of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on March 31 and April 2, 1999. For a summary of their discussion, see the Annex. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.