WCC earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2018.
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the WESCO Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) And please note that today's event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Will Ruthrauff, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, William. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us for WESCO International's conference call to review our third quarter financial results. Joining me on today's call are John Engel, Chairman, President and CEO; and Dave Schulz, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
This conference call includes forward-looking statements, and therefore, actual results may differ materially from expectations. For additional information on WESCO International, please refer to the company's SEC filings, including the risk factors described therein. The following presentation includes a discussion of certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information required by Regulation G of the Exchange Act with respect to such non-GAAP financial measures can be obtained via WESCO's website at wesco.com. Means to access this conference call via webcast was disclosed in the press release and posted on our corporate website. Replays of this conference call will be archived and available for the next seven days.
Thank you, Will. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter results. I'll lead off with a few high level remarks, and Dave will take you through the details of the quarter. I will then return to provide our first end market outlook for 2019, before we open the call to questions.
We had another strong quarter, and are very pleased with our return to profitable growth in 2018. This is the third consecutive quarter that we delivered double-digit growth in operating profit, and in EPS. Strong execution drove positive momentum across our entire business. This momentum was clearly reflected in our backlog growth, sales growth, gross margin expansion, cost management and pull-through, and free cash flow generation. Importantly, operating margin expanded sequentially and year-over-year, reflecting the success of our value-selling and margin improvement initiatives.
Strong cash generation is a hallmark of WESCO, and the third quarter was no exception, with free cash flow exceeding net income, driven by effective working capital management. As you've seen by our release, we have increased our current share repurchase authorization from $300 million to $400 million. After returning $25 million to shareholders in the third quarter via share repurchase, we now plan on accelerating the pace of our share buyback program. The recent market correction provides a compelling opportunity for the company to invest in itself. We're confident in the value creation ability of our company and anticipate utilizing $175 million of this authorization through the first half of 2019. The strong free cash flow generation capability of our business supports continued investment in our differentiated service-oriented business model and One WESCO growth initiatives, including acquisitions, while providing us the ability to return capital to shareholders.
The fourth quarter is off to a solid start with preliminary workday adjusted sales up low-single digits in October, and up double-digits on a two-year stack basis. In addition, book-to-bill has been tracking above 1.0 throughout the month. Based on our year-to-date results and our positive view of the end markets, we have narrowed the ranges of our full-year expectation for sales, operating margin and EPS, and increased our full year expectations for free cash flow.
With that, I will now turn the call over to Dave, to provide further details on our third quarter results, and our full-year outlook. Dave?
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to our end markets beginning on Page 4. Industrial sales were up 1% organically, reflecting 3% growth in US, and 4% growth in Canada in local currency. This marked our seventh consecutive quarter of industrial sales growth on a year-over-year basis. On a two-year stack basis, growth has been steady with organic sales up 12% in each of the past three quarters. Momentum with industrial customers remain solid. Most of our global account industry verticals, as well as our geographic regions in the US and Canada grew over the prior year. The industrial recovery continues in our global accounts in integrated supply opportunity pipeline, and our bidding activity levels remain healthy.
The macroeconomic indicators remain in expansion territory, supported by increasing production levels and capacity utilization in the US and Canada. Discussions with our customers confirm this view. During the quarter, we were awarded a multi-year contract to provide an integrated supply solution to support a large oil and gas customers upstream operation in the United States.
Turning to Page 5. We posted a fifth consecutive quarter of growth in construction with organic sales up 3%, reporting sales that were flat versus the prior year in the US, and up 12% in Canada in local currency. Sales were up 2% sequentially from the second quarter, and up 9% on a two-year stack basis. Business activity was, again, strong in the quarter with the majority of our regions in the US posting year-over-year sales growth. We also had particularly strong results in Canada, where we continue to take share in a strong construction market. The construction end-market continues to be challenged by an extremely tight labor market in the presence of both inflationary and tariff related price pressures, which have increased cost for certain projects, but we are helping our customers navigate these headwinds.
Sales to both industrial, commercial contractors grew again this quarter. Backlog was up 7% over the prior year, and down 3% sequentially, reflecting normal seasonal patterns. Importantly, margins in our backlog are up sequentially, and on a year-over-year basis. Forward looking indicators remain favorable, as we are seeing continued investment in non-residential construction projects. The exceptionally tight labor market has placed a premium on WESCO services, as our solutions enable our customers to maximize the efficiency of their teams both on and off the job site. We expect moderate growth and the uptrend in non-residential construction to continue. This quarter, as a follow on to winning the electrical material scope, we were awarded a contract to provide data communications product for the construction of a new medical center in Canada.
Moving to Page 6. Our utility business had another very strong quarter, as sales were up 11% over the prior year, and 4% sequentially. Utility sales in US grew 13%, which was partially offset by a 4% decrease in Canada in local currency. On a two-year stack basis, sales were up 20%. Again this quarter, we gained market share by expanding our relationships with investor-owned utility, public power and utility contractor customers. Sales in the US had an approximate $2 million benefit in the quarter from storm-related response versus an $11 million benefit in the prior year. We believe that the benefits received in utility business for storm response this quarter were more than offset by decreased activity levels and other portions of our business.
WESCO remains uniquely positioned to benefit from secular trends in the utility sector, including continued construction market growth, higher industrial output, continued consolidation and the increasing demand for renewable energy. This quarter, we entered into a multi-year renewal of a contract to provide an integrated supply solution for the generation and transmission operations of a US utility.
Finally, turning to Commercial, Institutional and Government or CIG on Page 7. We delivered 8% organic growth in the quarter with Canada up 12% in local currency, along with continued strong growth in international. On a two-year stack, CIG sales were up nearly 17%. Flat sales in the US reflect the timing impact of certain projects. Overall, this market remains quite strong and we see growth continuing in 2019. Our technical expertise and supply chain solutions continue to drive growth with our technology customers, who rely on WESCO for their data center, broadband and cloud technology projects.
We are continuing to add value to our customers through our LED lighting -- renovation and retrofit applications, fiber-to-the-x deployments, broadband build-outs and cyber and physical security infrastructure solutions. As an example, this quarter we were awarded a contract to provide lighting and electrical materials for an upgrade to an airport in the United States.
Moving to Page 8. Our outlook for the third quarter sales growth was between 3% and 6%. Reported sales for the quarter were at the lower end of this range, and organic sales were 4.2%. As with the prior quarter, this growth was broad-based with 8% organic growth in Canada, and 4% in the US. Pricing, again, provided a favorable impact of approximately 2%. Gross margin was 19.2% in the third quarter, up approximately 20 basis points sequentially. Adjusting for a reclassification of certain labor costs from operating expense to cost of sales, gross margin was up 10 basis points versus prior year, and represented our highest gross margin over the past six quarters on a like-for-like basis. It is clear that we are seeing the benefits of our margin improvement initiatives, while effectively pushing supplier price increases through to our customers.
SG&A expenses represented 13.7% of sales, 30 basis points lower than prior year, and 20 basis points lower than prior quarter. This was driven by our continued focus on cost controls and efficient operations. We also benefited from the impact of favorable foreign exchange rates, gains associated with the sales of certain physical assets, and the absence of a bad debt charge that we discussed last quarter.
Operating margin was 4.7%, above the midpoint of our outlook range of 4.5% to 4.8%. This result was 30 basis points higher than the prior year, and 40 basis points higher than the second quarter. Similar to Q2, our third quarter results reflects favorable operating leverage as the business generated a pull-through of incremental gross profit to EBIT of approximately 70%. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 17.2%, materially lower than our expected rate of 21%. This decrease was primarily attributable to a discrete benefit resulting from certain prior year audit settlements.
Moving to the diluted EPS walk on Page 9. We reported diluted earnings per share of $1.41, an increase of $0.29 or 26% versus the prior year. This increase reflects favorable operating results, a lower tax rate, the benefit of share repurchases made primarily in the prior year, and a net unfavorable foreign exchange rate.
Turning to Page 10. Free cash flow in the third quarter was $80 million or 121% of net income. Year-to-date free cash flow was $151 million or approximately 90% of net income. This is in line with our historical target, and driven by strong sales and effective working capital management. Year-to-date, networking capital increased less than 4% in support of reported sales growth of 8.5%, reflecting the positive impact of our asset management initiatives.
Our debt leverage ratio is 3.1 times trailing 12-month EBITDA, and is well within our target leverage range. Leverage net of cash was 2.8 times EBITDA. We repaid approximately $38 million of debt during the quarter, and have repaid $90 million of debt year-to-date. As outlined in the appendix to the webcast deck, financial leverage includes the impact of adopting the recent accounting standard for net periodic benefit costs. This had a relatively minor impact on leverage over the trailing 12 months.
We maintained strong liquidity, defined as available cash plus committed borrowing capacity of $828 million at the end of the quarter. Interest and other expense was $70 million in the quarter. Our weighted average borrowing rate was 4.6%, consistent with historical averages. Over the past several quarters, we have increased the percentage of fixed rate debt to 67%, and believe we are appropriately balanced between fixed rate and variable rate instruments.
Moving to Page 11. WESCO has a history of generating strong free cash flow throughout the entire business cycle, and we expect that to continue. Our capital allocation priorities remain consistent. The first priority is to invest cash in organic growth initiatives, to strengthen and profitably grow our business. Second, we invest in acquisitions. Third, we target a financial leverage ratio of between 2 to 3.5 times EBITDA. And fourth, we will continue to return cash to shareholders through share repurchase, under our now $400 million share buyback authorization that runs through 2020.
As John mentioned at the top of the call, the recent volatility in the equity markets has created an opportunity for WESCO to increase and accelerate our repurchase program. Not only is our stock currently priced at an extremely attractive value, but our cash generation enables us to opportunistically repurchase shares, and still maintain the balance sheet capacity to pursue other sources of value creation when they are available, including acquisitions. We continue to evaluate options to repatriate cash held in foreign jurisdictions. We expect that use of any repatriated cash will be consistent with our existing capital allocation priorities.
Now, let's turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter and full-year 2018, on Slide 12. Starting with our current full-your outlook in the center column, we are narrowing the range of our expected sales growth to 6% to 8%. This reflects our expectation of continued sales growth in the fourth quarter. At the midpoint, this outlook is 250 basis points higher than our original 2018 outlook of 3% to 6% growth. We are narrowing the operating range outlook to 4.2% to 4.4%. We have slightly decreased our effective tax rate to a range of 19% to 21%, largely to reflect third quarter favorability. We expect average shares outstanding of approximately 47.5 million for the year, comparable to the prior year. Note, that this excludes any benefit from our increase share repurchase authorization. As a result of these adjustments, we have narrowed our expected EPS range to $4.70 to $4.90, representing at the midpoint a 22% increase over 2017. As previously mentioned, we expect strong fourth quarter free cash flow, and are increasing our full-year expectation to approximately 100% of net income. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales growth of 1% to 4%, reflecting seasonality and more difficult comparisons. Recall that in the fourth quarter of the prior year, sales were up 11%, which included the one-time benefit of $50 million related to national disaster recovery efforts in Puerto Rico and California. Operating margin is expected to be 4.3% to 4.6%, including continued strong pull-through. We expect the fourth quarter effective tax rate to be approximately 21%.
With that, let me turn the call back to John.
Thank you, Dave. Turning to Page 13. And as we outlined last quarter, we are providing our first end-market outlook for 2019, today. We expect all of our end markets to remain healthy, and to continue to provide excellent profitable growth opportunities for WESCO. Our outlook includes, above-market sales results, execution of our profitable growth initiatives, continuing to invest in our people and processes, and maintaining our cost and cash management discipline. As a result, we expect sales growth in the range of 3% to 6% for next year, and we plan on providing the balance of our 2019 outlook during our fourth quarter earnings call in January.
Our customers are seeking continuous improvement -- and supply chain stability in a world that has become increasingly complex and is rapidly changing. Our talented team of associates, and our robust portfolio of products and value-added services continue to differentiate WESCO in providing our customers with a complete solutions for their MRO, OEM and capital project needs.
So with that, we'll now open up the call for questions.
And we will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And our first questioner today will be Deane Dray with RBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Hey, as I was kind of clicking through, John, through your prepared remarks, aware that the key wins in the quarter were between the pull-through, the buyback announcement and the free cash flow. I really want to talk about pull-through, because you had drawn the line in the sand six months ago and said wait for the second half you're going to start seeing the pull-through come in, and we see it loudly here in the third quarter. So just talk about how you got to this point, the sustainability into the fourth quarter and expectations in 2019?
Yes. Thanks, Deane. Yes. Overall, we're very pleased with the quarter, and I think it does represent firing on all cylinders of the business. And it's consistent with our expectations. Starting on the top line, we're within the range we said, and by end-market and by geography, everything was pretty much on track. I think the only delta was US construction. I'm sure, I'll get some more questions about that, we'll come back to that. But exiting the quarter with a record backlog, and then when you look inside the quarter, and this stat -- this supports the pull-through. Our sales growth was in the range, but it was at the lower end of the range we outlined. And so, it's particularly strong pull-through, given the sales level that we had. And many of you know us well, you can go back and look at our reported results, there have been quarters when we've been in a 70% range of pull-through, but in all cases we've had sales growth higher -- at higher levels. And I think this begins to talk about the power of margin expansion. And so, we've also been working real hard at that Deane, and we've got sequential margin expansion at the gross margin line, year-over-year when you adjust for the reclass that expanded as well, that drove good operating margin expansion and double-digit growth in the EBIT and EPS. So, and obviously, we had very strong free cash flow, I'll come back to that later. So, I would just start out by saying we feel really good about kind of the composition of the quarter. It's really a testament to the team, we have -- our DNA, our culture is very strong cost management and productivity. And so, getting really good, I call it exceptional pull-through on that sales level is encouraging. And then, to your point about the fourth quarter, and as we get into 2019, if you look at the outlook that we have on -- for the fourth quarter, again, you'll see a top line that represents, low-single digit range, similar to, and that's what we foreshadowed all year. We have much, much tougher comparables in the second half Q3 and Q4 versus last year. We've come-off of four quarters of double-digit top line growth Q3, Q4, Q1, Q2. And so, what you see in our outlook is, Q4 that looks kind of similar to Q3, quite frankly. Sales -- kind of a low-single digit range. Expect to have margins under control, leveraging a strong backlog, record all-time in Q3, entering the quarter. And by the way, the margins are up in our backlog both year-over-year and sequentially, which is a positive, and pull-through, the inherent pull-through that's in the outlook is very strong -- Q4 looks like a Q3, right, in terms of the range of pull-through. And we expect strong cash, which is why we took the cash up for the year. So, I think, we've got -- we don't haven't closed the books on October, yet, but we've got the momentum continuing from Q3 in October. And so, we're going to build on that momentum. I think when it's all said and done, we'll close out the fourth quarter, it will have played out as -- the year will played out as we expected, and we put our initial outlook for 2019. You can see it includes a positive outlook on the end-market growth. Our end markets are essentially 2% to 5%, up 2% to up 5%, and we expect growth in all four end markets. And we expect to outperform the end-market, as we have been throughout 2017 and 2018. And the rest of our outlook, I think that we'll provide as part of our Q4 earnings release as we said I think, that'll be all the other elements of our outlook for '19. But we do expect, the core profit generation capability and cash generation capability of our business model to be intact and reflected in the 2019 guidance ultimately.
That's real helpful. And a number of follow-up points in your answer there. The one I'd like to pick up on is on the construction deceleration in the third quarter, look, everyone's on the edge in terms of where might there be any slowdowns. We just got the ISM numbers this morning, and those continue to look healthy, so that doesn't raise any alarms there. But when you see the slowing in construction, can you comment on that, and the backlog that's up, in the prepared remarks backlog margins were up, was that also true in construction? Thanks.
Yes. So, thanks, Deane. And I figured we get this question. I think that's the one area in the quarter versus how we thought the quarter would play out. There was a little bit -- that had some softness versus expectations when we originally gave them for the third quarter. Let me start with, the strongest part of construction is Canada, I'll start kind of north of the border. Very strong results in Canada, double-digit growth in construction, and strong growth across really all the Canadian businesses, very strong growth in EECOL and in WESCO. And so -- and strong growth across the region. So, we feel good about our overall Canadian business, in particular, and it's more -- has a heavier construction mix. The backlog in Canada grew double digits. We took share, again, and really strong set of growth drivers as the oil and gas coming back mining infrastructure and such. So that's really strong and positive, and building on the momentum that we've had in Canada built across 2017 and 2018. When you come down to the US, we -- I would say, overall in aggregate, I'm disappointed that the sales came in at flat, I will tell you now, I'm very disappointed with that. When you go underneath that and look at the composition, we had really -- the majority of the regions in the US had positive construction sales growth, and had expansion of billing margins, and so that's really encouraging. And as I said, our backlog built in a nice way -- year-over-year our backlog is up 7%, and so against all prior respective third quarters, it's in an all-time record level, which bodes very well for entering the fourth quarter, and really for 2019. I'm not concerned with construction in the US, it's -- when you look at it for us Deane, at the end of the day what drove Q3, there are projects based upon execution, and I'll come to that in a minute, not do based on us, but overall based on the contractors, they can move around timing wise, when they start and when they complete, and that can -- that dictates timing of sales, so I don't get particularly concerned given all the other macro indicators, the health of our backlog, and our bid activity levels. Bid activity levels are very high. What the real driver is, I think in construction, and we're seeing this with customers in other verticals is -- there's labor shortages, and so there's pressure, significant pressure on contractors in particular that have record backlogs as well like us. And they do have market confidence, like we do. But given the labor shortages, it's putting particular pressure on them in fulfilling their current obligations that are reflected in the projects they won interim backlog. And then with all the price increases, clearly that put some -- creates a set of challenging conditions for them as they're bidding new projects, with record backlogs and labor shortages. And so, that does create some challenge and pressure for them on the kind of the front end of the projects. I think, we're exceptionally well-positioned to help them with that, because we've got a lot of our supply chain solutions for construction are focused on the job site to improve job site productivity, and as well as supply chain efficiency in getting materials to the job site. So, I feel really good about our value proposition and our solutions. And so that my takeaway is, I'm disappointed in the reported number, but I'm still bullish on where we are in the construction cycle, the macros. And the outlook for 2019 that we gave assumes low to mid-single digit growth in construction, consistent with how we outlined it for 2018.
John, it's really helpful. That's it for me. But I just want to give a shout out to Dave and the team for the working capital management and nice free cash flow this quarter. Thanks.
And the next questioner today will be Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.
So, I want to talk about organic growth. The guidance for the fourth quarter, up 1% to 4% and presumably there's 2% price in there. So volume is kind of up 1% to 2%. Is that at-market or kind of talk through why it would be so low?
So, I'll let Dave take you through the pieces. And again, we don't guide price as you know, but I would say the 1% to 4% is better than advertised, when you take a look at sales we had called out in Q4 last year -- we had an exceptionally strong Q4, relative to normal seasonality. And in addition, we had a significant headwind on FX through the third quarter, a little under a full point of headwind on FX translation in Q3, and that -- also that same headwind existed in October, and appears that it's going to be in play for the balance of the quarter. So with that, I'll hand it to Dave, but I think that the 1% to 4% as advertised is really better than that by a couple of points.
Correct. So, as John mentioned, our 1% to 4% is on a reported sales basis, so there's two impacts that we called out; one is foreign exchange, and so we do anticipate that foreign exchange will be a headwind in the fourth quarter. We're already seeing that in the month of October. The other issue is, we did have a storm recovery in Q4 of the prior year. So that adds to the difficult comp, adding the FX and the storm-related recovery in the base period, you're a little north of a point on sales growth. One of the other things that keep in mind is that fourth quarter last year was also our strongest growth quarter, at just north of 10%, so organic growth in the base period was a plus 10%. So, we're still looking at a significant two-year stack delivery in Q4 based on the guide.
Got it. That's helpful. Okay. And then, I do want to follow-up on construction. I just want to know, John, how worried should we be just given labor shortages, rising costs and rising rates. You think on the margin, this could slow the pace of construction projects in 2019?
No. I think, based on, I guess a lot of the leading indicators on a macro basis that you see and I see is, we see them together. I would suggest that things are still healthy. And what I can share with you is, and we are doing this on a continuous basis, right, because this is how we run our business as we engage and perform with contractor customers. They're very positive still on their outlook for the balance of '18 and into '19. And this is still an expanding cycle relative to construction. They've got record backlogs. There's some -- become some execution challenges on the labor front, but honestly Ryan, that's a good problem to have versus the other kind of problem. And we've been there at the trough of a Great Recession, right. So, and that just creates a set of conditions for companies like a WESCO to provide our solutions that are very focused on job site productivity, and overall supply chain efficiency and getting materials to the job site, and ensuring projects are executed on time under budget and with greater productivity, which directly addresses the labor shortage issue. So, we're having the highest level of discussions around that, those services and solutions that we've ever had. And I think that, that bodes very well for us. So again, based on my view of overall momentum, discussions with contractor customers, and the final piece would be end user customers that -- and I didn't talk about this, yet, but we're seeing more small and mid-sized project activity with our direct end user customers both industrial and CIG, which is what we expected as we move through this year, and that's encouraging as well. And I think we're still in the middle innings at the latest in terms of the industrial cycle. That's my view, and I maintain that view, and all the indicators would suggest that, and our discussions with customers would suggest that. So all that gets baked into, Ryan, our outlook for -- that we've put out there for 2016, which was consistent with the first outlook for the top line that we put out for 2018 -- for 2019 for 2018, right. And so, which is plus 3% to plus 6%, and we think that the market grows roughly 2% to 5%. So, that's my view, and we get it, as you know, we get an awful lot of data points and measurement points across our customer base. And so, this view is informed by that.
Okay. Maybe just lastly before I turn on -- turn over. On tariffs, how exposure you to China sourcing, and what level of price increase do you estimate you'll need to cover the announced tariffs at the 25% rate?
Yes, I think Dave will take you through the numbers, and we anticipated this question. The good news is, I'll just frame it by saying relative to our competitors, let's say other distributor peers that are kind of investor peers, let's call them investor peers, we are a rounding error, but with that, Dave will take you through the numbers.
Yes. Ryan, our direct exposure to the tariffs that have been announced is low-single digit, that would be items that we are purchasing directly from those countries, in which there is now going to be the higher tariff rate. Obviously, as we take a look at our relationships with key suppliers, as they're sourcing some of their materials from the tariff countries, that is going to come to us as a price increase, and that's consistent with what we've been seeing year-to-date. We've been seeing the level of price increases have almost tripled versus the previous years. Obviously, we've done a good job of passing through the supplier price increases year-to-date, that's showing up in our billing margins and in our gross margins that we publish. And so, again, we will continue to focus on passing through any of the impacts to tariffs. What we see directly is minimal, but we will be seeing some impact from our suppliers.
Yes. Again, our direct sourced -- direct sourcing from Asia is very -- is de minimis. And so, what we see is that the impact -- when it impacts our suppliers would ultimately impacts us. I think Dave raised an important point. The level -- the number and level of price increases we saw in the third quarter are markedly higher than we would see in a typical third quarter. They were roughly at two times the rate that we saw in the second quarter, that's not -- that is not typical. So I think, if there is increased price increases, the tariffs are an inspiration for some portion of that clearly. But inflation has ticked up too, that ultimately is good for a distributor, and it's always a challenge to pass these through. I think, what I feel probably that I feel the best about in the -- of all the elements of the quarter -- the cash flow is bedrock and that's always strong. It's the margins, and the fact that we've got sequential gross margin expansion in the face of much tougher headwinds sequentially, as we move through this year is a testament to the WESCO team and the traction we're getting on our margin improvement initiatives.
And the next questioner today will be Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Hey, John. Last quarter you talked about, I think the price cost equation being at the crest of the wave. It looks like you're in balance right now. The kind of terminology, the crest of the wave. To me it implied you may be starting to break to net positive. Can you update where you see that crest of wave, how that forms or crashes in the next couple of quarters?
So, I think, the statement I just made, Chris, the fact that we got the sequential margin improvement in gross margins Q3 versus Q2 is a testament that we're overcoming those headwinds. And so, we're riding on top of the wave, and kind of launching, so to speak, if I stay with that analogy. The other point to make, which is really important, and Dave made in his prepared comments, I alluded to it previously, is the margins of our backlog and we said our backlog is at a record Q3 level. Those margins have expanded both sequentially and year-over-year as well, which is also a reflection of our margin improvement initiatives. So, with all that said, as Dave mentioned, and I just alluded to, the rate and the number of price increases in Q3 was above normal seasonality and higher than Q2. So, I think we're in a general inflationary phase of the business cycle. The tariff exasperate that. But given that increased headwind that's placed through -- through the whole supply chain, I'm particularly pleased with how we're managing the margin equation. And I think -- and Deane kind of got to this, this is what drove the pull-through, when you really sit down and look at it. So, and then you do -- you always have to compare and contrast this to others, and so, you look at where others have reported price versus cost and where their margins are. I think this is notable in terms of the momentum vector we have, that has been demonstrated in Q3 and exiting Q3.
Great. That's helpful. And then on the bridge to the next year outlook, implies an acceleration from the fourth quarter growth outlook and certainly in the midpoint even from the third quarter. So what's kind of the thought process framed up for what -- how you transition into sort of a bit of a reacceleration there?
So, again, I would -- we'll give you more guidance in terms of how the year phases out, as well as full outlook kind of guidance as part of our Q4 call, but as we're initially thinking about it, thinking about where we stand right now, we exited Q3 with a record backlog. Our bid activity levels are really strong. We've had a series of new wins both in global accounts and in utilities. We've got 100% contract renewal rates so far in global accounts in 2018. And when you look at industrial for that matter, we've had growth across the majority of the verticals. And as I mentioned earlier, I think we're -- from a cycle -- I know this question of cycle is out there, and I still see us in -- as kind of the mid part of the cycle at the latest, that's true for industrial, and it's also true for construction. And therefore, I think the market set up well, and our execution versus the markets, Chris, I feel particularly good about the last five quarters. The last five quarters is where we returned to growth overall. And I just think we've got really nice momentum.
And the next questioner today will be Steven Winoker with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hey. So, I just wanted to come back to the question of pricing pass-through, which is so important. You're very explicit about kind of the thinking around dollar-for-dollar pass-through inflation that's broader than tariffs. What are you thinking about demand elasticity. I mean, this is obviously hard to tell, in terms of what pressure, if any, this is applying, this is resulting in on the volume level. But do you have a sense at all as you look across the portfolio, and as you sort of think about what you're seeing, if in fact, this is something that's being really well absorbed by your customer base or is it very -- it differ very much in each of the segments, customer segments. How are you -- what are you seeing?
So I -- let me answer, first kind of set the stage by saying that I would say, here we are exiting Q3 entering Q4, and clearly as we move through the year customers are beginning -- we're able to get these move through and customers are absorbing them. I think there is an overall recognition and understanding by the customer's often really, there would be end of the value chain, whether it's an end user or a contractor who's doing a job for an end user -- that inflation has ticked up and everything is ultimately relative to what your competitors do with pricing. But this height of inflation has impacted all our supplier partners, it's impacted us and all the other -- all the other distributor supply chain partners in our part of the value chain, and we're all working collectively to move the price through. I think, the bigger -- the more important thing for the WESCO associates, the sales force and our account managers and such as, I have been very focused on selling our value, and so it's focused on our supply chain solutions and our services and not making it -- not competing purely on price. Another certain parts of the portfolio -- where they are more commodity driven, Steve, and they're going to absolutely be -- it's a price competition, but even though the areas like wire, cable and conduit, we try to add value-added services like color feeder and kitted assemblies and coupled that into our job site services. So, that's the dynamic, 2018 is different than '17. There is more price increases, they're at a higher level, but also we are much more effective in getting them push through. And I mentioned this in 2017, this time lag when inflation starts to pick up and it takes a while for us to work it through. And remember, we're not a catalog business, so we're not less modest discount pricing and exceptionally important point unlike some other, I'll call them industrial distributors, and we have a big percentage of our business direct ship, a big project component and then we have global accounts agreements in many cases, these are multi-year in nature, same with our utility alliance agreements, so our ability and mechanism to move price through there is always a time lag. I think you're seeing the -- you're really seeing the results of the hard work of our team, all the margin improvement initiatives and we're getting traction on that. And that's why we're seeing the gross margins are expanding sequentially.
And that '19, early growth outlook that you have, I mean did you factoring contingency from this dynamic at all?
I mean that's -- our view of 2019 right now is we still are in an expansionary portion of the cycle, that's true for industrial, is true for construction. Relative to utility, that market is not growing 2% to 5%, it's lower than that, but we have an exceptional set of solutions and we've been taking share consistently. And CIG offers a wealth of growth opportunities, right. And that's a much broader and diverse set of customers in that market vertical. So, I think we've got a pretty darn good outlook of what we think the opportunities are setting up for 2019, because we're going through our detailed 2019 planning processes as we speak, and so we've done some deep dives on that already. And so, we're putting that out there and it's consistent with how we viewed entering '18. So, I mean, the way to look at that is, our view of entering '18, our view of entering '19 is not that much different than our view of entering '18, in terms of what the market will provide and our ability to execute. We ended up doing a bit better on the top line in '19, or in '18, than we originally guided, but that's how we think about it. And we'll update this when we have our Q4 call, and by then we will close the fourth quarter and have an expanded view of 2019.
Okay. I'll pass it on. Thanks.
And the next questioner today will be Hamzah Mazari with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. This is actually Mario Cortellacci filling in for Hamzah. Could you give us a sense of how you're thinking about your inventory levels as you head into 2019, and whether you view that as or your working capital as a source or use of cash next year?
So, I'm not going to tell you what could that would be giving additional guidance on '19, beyond just the end markets and our top line and that's all that we're providing at this point. But I will say this, and as Dave mentioned in his remarks, I think we've had really strong and effective working capital management this year. We've had a lot of initiatives focused on how we engage with customers and our terms with customers, and how we ensure we're reaching entitlement. We've always had a real strong processes around how we manage the suppliers portion of working capital AP(ph). And inventory is for us -- these are the optimization metrics, inventory availability and fill rate that's vital for us based upon the customers we're serving, and a lot of times we have a pretty good sense of that, if it's a global account agreement and a great supply agreement or kind of utility alliance customer. So, given all that we've focused real hard on our operational footprint over the last couple of years and really shrinking the order to cash cycle time and realizing those benefits, those benefits get realized in working capital and in inventory as we optimize our footprint, this is a multi-year journey that we're still on and I'm particularly pleased with the progress we've made in inventory this year. Again, the key metrics are availability and fill rate, but we've streamlined our inventories, think of it as kind of picked up our terms a bit, and we're still serving customers at the service level we would like, that's bedrock, that's priority one. So, we'll continue to -- I think we have more opportunities to continue to streamline, let's say accelerate our working capital turns. And we're good at this -- this is we're -- and look at our free cash generation ultimately, right, so to the extent we can do even better here, that just adds our free cash generation. (Multiple Speakers) Which has been a driver this year clearly.
Sure. And just one more, and I'll turn it over. At your Analyst Day, you highlighted about 55% of your business is project-oriented, 10% OEM, with the balance being MRO, just want to see if you think or if you see that mix changing at all or you like the shift over time or do you think it'll stay pretty consistent?
The best way to look at that is not quarter-by-quarter, but over, a kind of on an annual basis, and we'll have our next Investor Day in 2019, and we'll give a comprehensive update on that. I would say in general as we move through this year, the mix really hasn't moved much. And because there are two -- three fundamentally different demand streams in terms of what the customer's needs are and the array of supply chain solutions, both the products and the services that we put together to serve them for each of those. We're not strategically trying to adjust that mix. We, in fact, want to grow all three types of demand streams of business for that with each customer, that's actually the good news for WESCO, because there's many of our competitors are much more wrapped around, don't have the OEM component, for example, or don't have anywhere near the breadth and depth of the MRO, and they're more project driven. So I think we have that opportunity to serve all three demand streams well with all customers. And when you take a given customer in an end-market, there's expansion opportunities based upon what we've been currently -- what we've been historically doing and that's one -- that's part of our One WESCO focus, is selling all our products and services to each and every customer in every location. But it's for those three demands streams, this is really important. So we may be underrepresented in OEM, and there could be a huge OEM expansion opportunity with a given customer where we already do significant project and MRO. So, there's no strategic intent to shift to change the mix. The mix hasn't really evolved much in 2018, and when we get to Investor Day in 2019 -- we update that on an annual basis.
And our next questioner today will be Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Thanks, guys. Good morning. Thanks for the detail, John, as always, it's a great color. Obviously, the sales slowdown is causing a lot of -- creating a lot of attention, I just wanted to come back to that, one of your supplies Eaton(ph), pulls by the large project activity, a little bit softer in September. Did you see that as well. And maybe just address the impact of price increases inflation in tariffs, and whether that's good(ph)for working demand into 2Q, expense of 3Q. And if that's the case then it does look out of a time, but if you think you have seen some pull forward that would be interesting?
Yes. I don't think there is -- I would not -- as we went through Q2, I would not signal any pull forward, we didn't see that. So, when you look at our sales by month in the quarter, we organically that's in our webcast we're five, plus-five, plus-five, plus-three. So September was a little lower than July and August. On a two-year stack basis though, we were flat across the entire quarter month-by-month. So, the comparables got tougher, because we had an exceptionally strong September last year. So, Nigel, I'll come back to the comments I made earlier. We exit the quarter with an all-time record Q3 backlog, our bid activity levels are very high. The dynamic that our contractor customers are facing is this -- it's labor constrained. Prices are increasing, so they're always trying to figure out relative to new projects or even projects that are under way, how do they best deal with that, we try to help them with that. And project starts and stops can kind of based on that moving around they can move sales across quarters. So, I don't want to signal that we're seeing this kind of wholesale shift slipping out of projects. Not at all, I feel -- I'm very comfortable with our momentum vector as I said earlier. And for us it just kind of how it lined up in the quarter, quite frankly. In the US in particular, in Canada, you can see strong double-digit growth. So, yes, there's no additional insight there really, Nigel. I hit that earlier and that's our view. We're not seeing a wholesale shift.
Okay. That's great. And then quick one on lighting, (inaudible) is hitting lighting inputs pretty harsh. And I'm just wondering if you're seeing from your perch, a change in behavior from -- in the industry in response to these tariffs, whether it be market share or pricing. Any change that you're seeing out there?
So, I think lighting, it's really important, I will try to keep my comment short, because I know we're -- this is a passionate area for me. For WESCO, it's one of our top growth opportunities and top growth engines. And lighting is, it's going undergoing significant changes. So it's not so much that wave of tariff recently, but that is causing anything that's extraordinary. It's the whole LED solid state shift, and also the ability for non-traditional lighting players to come into the market and access certain applications for certain types of customers where those customers are willing to buy strictly on price. And where that supplier brand doesn't have the same value that it used to have. And that's not right for all customers in all segment, so there's still tremendous power in our preferred supplier brands and we partner with them and we think that that's exceptionally important. So, with respect to lighting, overall, what's exciting about it is, it used to be for a century, or just kind of a bookend. For a century, it was driven by construction, new construction. And then you get fixtures, ballast and the controls, and OK, the lamps initially, and then you had a replacement lamp business, OK. That's not what the lighting -- biggest lighting market opportunity is now. It's the entire installed base and the amount of LED penetration in any given local market is single-digit percent. When you look at all structures, all facilities, you just look out your window, that everything that's lit up indoor and outdoor, and so there is a huge opportunity for retrofit renovation and upgrades, and that's where we're focused on. There is a lot of numbers out there, it's triple digit billions in terms of what that retrofit renovation upgrade market is. And very exciting and because LED, it's LED driven, now it's more semiconductor capital economic, so prices are coming down, OK, overall, and performance is improving, right. So, and like any other semiconductor driven market whereas lighting for a century was that was not the case. So it's very exciting, but there's no doubt that the competitive landscape of that whole value chain and how its working has -- is rapidly evolving. So, stay tuned on that. The tariffs just create opportunities for certain players to be a little bit better positioned versus others, but that -- I still think that swamped out by the overall macro trend of this shift to solid state, and the opportunities being -- were controlled with a differentiator with an LED application. And other functions that can be performed in terms of facilities management, energy management, it's a tremendous opportunity for all of us.
You definitely pass(ph), John, on lighting. So, thanks a lot, I'll leave with that.
And the next questioner today will be Patrick Baumann with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Well. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
Good morning. Just I think I heard earlier that you expect your incremental pull through framework for 2019 to be intact despite tariffs, and that will be reflected in your 2019 guidance. Just want to confirm that I heard that right?
Patrick, it's Dave Schulz, so that's correct. So, our pull through model is intact. And so, our objective is based on a long-term growth algorithm that we would get greater than 50% pull through. And that's based on a sales level that's low-single digit. So, that's very consistent with how we've talked about in the past. When it comes to the price increases, whether it's from a pure price increase from a supplier and/or related to the tariff, we need to push that through to our customers, and that's our full intent as we enter 2019, we'll provide you more details on our January earnings call.
That's great. Thanks for clarifying. And then just on that pull through question. You mentioned some items that impacted SG&A in the quarter, just wondering if you could quantify the impacts?
We haven't historically quantified those impacts, I mean, I think it's safe to say that as you look at our financial results there we delivered the pull through. We had been talking about this all year. This is the first quarter, where we did not have that variable compensation comparison relative to the prior year. And so, again, we're pleased with the cost controls with the margin expansion that we've gotten in the quarter that related to the pull through that we posted for Q3.
(Inaudible) you mentioned -- you said what would you say, gain and FX dynamics and bad debt, those are the three things?
I think if you look at it sequentially, we had a bad debt charge that was above and beyond what we would normally book. And that occurred in the middle of July, and we reflected it in our June quarter. So, we did not have that issue in the third quarter. We had our typical bad debt expense. So, we laid it out in our prepared remarks, it was primarily, we had good cost control. We had a benefit from foreign exchange. We had the absence of that bad debt charge and then we did have a gain on the sale of an asset.
Got it. That's helpful. Okay. And then just a couple of quick housekeeping items. Looks like less work days for 2019, does that 3% to 6% take that into account. And then also on the tax rate 19% to 21% of that kind of a sustainable rate, we should be modeling into next year as well?
We do take into account the number of work days for 2019, and we will be providing further guidance for 2019 during our January call. We've not made any comments about the tax rate for '19.
Again, what we're providing today is only end-market, and our end-market assumptions and then our sales results given those end-market assumptions we will continue to outperform them by one to two points and have some. We do anticipate some FX headwinds and that supports the 3% to 6% growth. But beyond that, we're not providing any 2019 outlook items until the Q4 earnings call.
Makes sense. All right. Great color. Really appreciate it, guys. Good luck. Thanks.
And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Engel for any closing remarks.
Thank you for your time this morning, I appreciate it. Brian Begg and Will will be available to take your questions and we do have a busy investor engagement schedule throughout the balance of the quarter. We hope to be able to see many of you at one of the investor outreach events we have planned including the Baird Global Industrial Conference and the Morningstar Behind the Moat Conference that we will be participating in next week. Thank you for your time this morning, and your interest in WESCO. Have a great day.
The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.