Rising interest rates are good for metals. Rising interest rates are bad for metals. We have heard the arguments from both sides. In fact, I think it is no different when people claim inflation is good for gold relative to those who believe deflation is good for gold.
Personally, I don’t think either side is correct, as we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly correct. That means we have seen periods of time where both sides were seemingly wrong. So, what does that tell you?
Well, it tells me that I really do not have to care about either issue, since neither is clearly the driver of the metals prices.
While I came into 2018 with a bullish pattern, which would have led to the breakout I was awaiting in order to signal the commencement of a strong 3rd wave rally (Elliott Wave parlance), the market broke support for that set up, which then caused me to look to lower targets to resurrect the set-up.
So, when we broke the 117.40 support, we had to look towards our next downside target in the 105-109 region to complete a protracted 2nd wave pullback.
And, when GLD broke support to tell us that the 2nd wave pullback had not completed, it was not long thereafter that VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF ( (GDX[ARCA] – $19.75 ) and most miners followed along.
At this point in time, I am not yet confident that GDX has bottomed, even though we have a number of miners which we think may have bottomed. While I can point to major components of the GDX which have likely bottomed, a number of them still have not, and can still drag the GDX down to lower low into the end of the year. So, ultimately, the question for me is if the GDX is going to follow those miners which have likely struck bottom, or those miners that still have lower to go. This is no different than what we experienced at the end of 2015, and we published similar analysis at the time to our subscribers, outlining those stocks which could pull GDX higher and those that could pull it lower. So, this is where resistance is going to be key in our analysis of the GDX.
Ideal support now resides between 17.70 and 18.25 in the GDX, with resistance at 20-20.90. My primary expectation is that we will test resistance before we break support. Moreover, should resistance hold, it will point us down to 15.25-16.40 region as a potential long-term bottom in the GDX for this two-year long second wave retrace off the 2016 high.
Alternatively, should we see the GDX break out through the 20.90 level, with strong follow-through over 21.20, that will open the door for the GDX to follow those miners which have likely bottomed, and would signal that the bottom has been struck, and a rally towards the 26-29 region is in progress. It would also mean that we will only see a corrective retrace in the GDX while those miners that have not likely bottomed complete their downside structures to lower lows.
For now, I have no clear indications that the GDX has bottomed, so my primary perspective is looking for a lower low in the GDX. But, as I have discussed many times in the past, the GDX has been torn between its stronger components and its weaker ones. The question is which will rule the day for the GDX in the coming months, and, for now, I think the weaker ones will keep the GDX below resistance and point us to a lower low in the coming months. But, I would be pleased to be proven wrong on this one, and you know which levels to watch to know how this one will turn out.
See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX as well as GLD, Silver and more.