Forex Morning Comments a cura di Tim Waterer (Senior FX Dealer, CMC Markets) e Ric Spooner (Chief Market Analyst).
Non avendo azionato il bottone del panico lo scorso venerdì, ma avendo altresì utilizzato un approccio misurato, Bernanke ha offerto buoni motivi di acquisto agli investitori contribuendo così ad una rapida risalita sia dei titoli azionari che delle monete maggiormente legate alla propensione al rischio.
La settimana che si apre oggi, ricca di dati macroeconomici in grado di imprimere una direzionalità ai mercati, sarà cruciale per capire se le due principali aree di preoccupazione che hanno caratterizzato il mese di agosto (utili societari inferiori alle attese a causa del deterioramento della crescita e nuovi timori di contagio sul debito sovrano) possano considerarsi al momento superate. In tal caso, gli investitori non vorranno farsi trovare sottopesati proprio nelle asset class che sembrano offrire il maggior potenziale, visto che il price earnings di alcuni delle azioni quotano ancora ad un multiplo molto inferiore rispetto a quello di due anni fa. Ipotesi per il momento ancora appese ai dati relativi alla crescita globale registrata per il mese di agosto: qualora infatti fosse addirittura peggiore di quanto ci si aspetti, ritorneranno presto anche tutti i dubbi riguardanti il rischio sovrano, nonostante le misure di austerity già annunciate.
On Friday Fed Chairman Bernanke did not seem inclined to hit the panic button at this stage of proceedings, and this tone seemed to rub off on risk assets as stocks pushed higher to end the week. All the non-defensive currencies moved sharply higher with equities as the market eventually warmed to the measured approach by the Fed Chairman.
It is shaping as a critical week of economic data. There is a multitude of data releases due which will shape short term market conditions. On Thursday we have domestic Retail Sales numbers and Chinese Manufacturing PMI due on the same day. The US economic calendar has plenty to announce but most emphasis will be on Friday’s employment figures which will have a significant psychological impact on the market.
The AUD will chart the same course as global equities this week, and a move to 1.07 could be on if bad news stories can be kept to a minimum. This morning we have seen the ASX200 move over 1% higher which drove the AUDUSD rate through 1.06 in what was a positive commencement to the week by risk assets. Following on from Glenn Stevens’ comments on Friday, any positive data released this week locally or abroad should see expectations of forthcoming RBA rate cuts start to diminish slightly.
The breadth of buying in the Australian market today is a good pointer towards the fact that investors are continuing the process of winding back the risk premium built into share valuations. There was widespread buying in today’s market with major banks and resource companies propelling the index higher. The market has had two broad areas of concern in recent weeks.
The first is that corporate earnings will be lower than previously thought as it becomes clearer that economic growth is currently much softer than previously forecast. The second is that there could be another round of financial problems due to contagion of debt risk particularly in Europe. Although earnings forecasts have been trimmed, investors are becoming concerned that they will be left underweight in shares if things settle down in Europe for a while.
This concern has seen ongoing buying over the past week but still leaves price earnings multiples well below average for the last 2 years.
Market focus in the next few days is likely to turn to the initial economic statistics for the month of August. There is an expectation that worsening consumer and business confidence in August will have led to more weak economic activity. One of this week’s major statistics will be the US employment figures due on Friday. If world growth figures for August are even weaker than expected further concerns about sovereign debt risk may be triggered. Weak growth has the potential to cause budget deficits to increase and debt levels to grow even though governments have introduced austerity programs.