The trust factor could well determine the tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk with a month left in an attack-driven campaign, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll found.
Giannoulias held a 38 percent to 36 percent advantage over Kirk, but that result falls within the poll’s 4-percentage-point margin of error. Another 17 percent were undecided, offering ample opportunity in a contest where both sides are trying to sway voters with millions of dollars in negative TV ads assailing the character and veracity of the other guy. Two largely unknown minor-party candidates lagged behind.
A month ago, a Tribune poll found the race tied at 34 percent, with 22 percent undecided.
Since then, the two major-party contenders have tried to exploit campaign fodder each has provided the other in spades. Kirk has acknowledged embellishing parts of his military record as a Naval Reserve intelligence officer. Giannoulias was a senior loan officer at his family’s failed bank when loans were given to convicted felons.
Voters surveyed seemed to penalize Kirk more severely. Giannoulias had a narrow advantage among those polled on which Senate candidate is more honest and trustworthy — at 35 percent compared with 30 percent for Kirk. An additional 16 percent said neither candidate, and 18 percent said they didn’t know, an indicator the TV ads might be leaving some voters cold on both of them.
A potentially troubling sign for Kirk is that voters in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties were almost equally split between the two candidates on the trustworthiness question.
In addition, 41 percent of voters, including 42 percent of independents, said they were less likely to vote for Kirk because of his exaggerated military claims, while 59 percent said it made no difference or didn’t know enough to decide.
About one-third of voters, including the same percentage of independents, said Giannoulias’ connection to the bank and loans to convicted felons would make them less likely to vote for the Democrat. The remaining nearly two-thirds said it didn’t matter or didn’t know enough to weigh in.
Attack ads have been central in the high-stakes campaign. Giannoulias has run different TV spots driving home the message that Kirk “lies.” Kirk’s ad campaign has included commercials ripping Giannoulias on taxes and for making “risky” loans to those with ties to organized crime.
Outside interests have gotten in the game too. A group led by Karl Rove, President George W. Bush’s former political guru, is airing an animated ad accusing Giannoulias of being asleep at the wheel of an SUV as his family’s Broadway Bank imploded and the state’s Bright Start college savings program suffered losses as the economy tanked in 2008.
Expect the non-stop barrage of negative advertising to continue. The campaigns and interest groups spent more than $800,000 last week in Chicago on TV ads, and Rove’s group alone is on tap to spend $1 million this week.
Following the barrage of ads, Kirk’s esteem among voters has dropped since the last poll among voters who have heard of the five-term North Shore congressman. The new poll saw 32 percent of those surveyed with an unfavorable view of Kirk, compared with 23 percent with a favorable opinion. A month earlier, Kirk was liked by 25 percent and disliked by 19 percent.
In contrast, Giannoulias, the first-term state treasurer and one-time protege of President Barack Obama, previously had been viewed more unfavorably than favorably among those who formed an opinion of him. Now voters are equally split — 31 percent favorably and 31 percent unfavorably.
Kirk’s esteem dipped among independent voters, a key swing demographic. A month ago, only 17 percent viewed him unfavorably. Now 34 percent do. Overall, Kirk holds a 38 percent to 27 percent edge over Giannoulias among independents, similar to his margin last time, though 22 percent are undecided.
The survey also suggests that Giannoulias bounced back from problems associated with the federal takeover of his family’s troubled bank in April. The poll was conducted before a Tribune report last week that showed Giannoulias worked at the bank longer than he had previously publicly discussed in gaining a $2.7 million tax deduction from the IRS.
The nationally significant contest for the Senate seat Obama once held remains close, but the new poll reveals movement among some groups of voters.
Giannoulias further consolidated support from Democratic voters, particularly in Chicago, with three-quarters of them rallying behind his candidacy. Previously, only two-thirds of Democrats backed Giannoulias. Kirk consistently has held that level of support among Republicans.
A look at the state’s three major regions shows Giannoulias still more than doubling up Kirk in Cook County, while Kirk held a slight lead in the collar counties and a healthy margin downstate.
The survey of 600 registered likely voters conducted Sept. 24-28 also found Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones getting 5 percent support, while Libertarian candidate Mike Labno received backing from 3 percent.
We are all better voting for Mickey Mouse.