Tomorrow, of course, is the first part of the 2013 MLB draft. I will be hosting a show discussing several different topics with insight on the draft tomorrow (Thursday June 6) from 5-9 pm eastern on www.mtrradio.com. Joining me will be a couple baseball prospectus writers as well as other radio hosts discussing all things MLB draft. During the past couple seasons, several top five picks have made an impact already at the major league level, including David Price, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and of course, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. Here is a recap of the past six top fives in the MLB draft, with equally as many players who have not made an impact at the MLB level yet.
Very seldom do players who are drafted in the previous year make it up to the majors so fast. Last year, the Astros took SS Carlos Correa from Puerto Rico with the 1st pick. The Twins picked 2nd and took OF Byron Buxton from high school. The Mariners took catcher Mike Zunino out of the University of Florida and he is currently playing in AAA. RHP Kevin Gausman from LSU went 4th to the Orioles and he is currently pitching in the majors for Baltimore. The Royals picked 5th and took RHP Kyle Zimmer from the University of San Francisco.
2011 saw college pitchers go 1-3 in the draft. The Pirates took RHP Gerrit Cole from the University of California Los Angeles with the number one pick. The Mariners took LHP Danny Hultzen from the University of Virginia with the Diamondbacks taking RHP Trevor Bauer, Cole's teammate at UCLA, with the number 3 pick. RHP Dylan Bundy was taken with the 4th pick by the Orioles out of high school with the Royals taking OF Bubba Starling, from high school, with the number 5 pick. Bundy made his debut last season with the Orioles, while Bauer pitched last season with the Diamondbacks before being traded to the Indians, where he is pitching this season.
The number one pick in the 2010 draft was obviously OF Bryce Harper, the second of consecutive number one overall picks taken by the Washington Nationals. RHP Jameson Tallion went #2 to the Pirates, followed by SS Manny Machado by the Orioles. Harper was taken out of junior college, while Taillon and Machado were taken out of high school. SS Christian Colon was taken by the Royals at #4 out of Cal State Fullerton, with LHP Drew Pomeranz going number 5 to the Rockies out of Mississippi. In addition to Harper, who gets all the attention, Machado is becoming one of the top young stars in the game. Pomeranz has pitched in the major leagues, both with Colorado and with Cleveland, who has now traded for two top five pick pitchers in the past three drafts.
Stephen Strasburg dominated the 2009 draft, going #1 to the Nationals out of San Diego State. OF Dustin Ackley went 2nd to the Mariners out of North Carolina. Ackley has struggled this season in Seattle and is now in the minors. The Padres took CF Donovan Tate out of high school with the 3 pick, while the Pirates took catcher Tony Sanchez out of BC with the 4th pick. RHP Matthew Hobgood went to the Orioles at number 5 out of high school. Interestingly enough, there was a very interesting 6-10 in this draft class. Zack Wheeler was taken 6 by the Giants out of high school, followed by LHP Mike Minor (Braves), Mike Leake (Reds), RHP Jacob Turner (Tigers) and RHP Drew Storen (Nationals). The last 4 are all in the major leagues with Wheeler on the way in the Mets organization. Turner is pitching in Miami after being traded last season from Detroit.
2008 saw an interesting class with SS Tim Beckham going number 1 to the Rays. Though Beckham was drafted out of high school, he is the only one of the top 5 picks not currently in the major leagues. 3B Pedro Alvarez went #2 to the Pirates out of Vanderbilt. 1B Eric Hosmer went #3 to the Royals out of high school. LHP Brian Matusz went #4 to the Orioles out of San Diego. Two time World Series Champion, 2010 NL Rookie of the Year and 2012 NL MVP Buster Posey went to the Giants at number five out of Florida State.
The Tampa Bay Rays took 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner David Price with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt, where he was teammates with Alvarez. SS Mike Moustakas was taken #2 overall by the Royals out of high school. While Moustakas has taken over as the team's starting 3B, like Hosmer, he has struggled this season. 3B Josh Vitters went #3 overall to the Cubs also out of high school, and he made his MLB debut last season. LHP Daniel Moskos went forth to the Pirates out of Clemson. Even though he pitched in 31 games for the Pirates in 2011, he has not been back in the majors since. The Orioles took C Matt Wieters number five from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
The Orioles had top five picks in all six of the past drafts. Both the Pirates and Royals had top five picks in five of the last six draft. In fact, with the Royals taking RHP Luke Hochevar #1 overall and the Pirates taking RHP Brad Lincoln #4 in the 2006 draft, that gave the Royals and Pirates six top five picks in the past seven seasons. None of the three have top five picks in this year's draft. The top 5 this season will be #1 Astros (1 top 5 in past 7 seasons), #2 Cubs (1), #3 Rockies (1), #4 Twins (1) and #5 Indians (1).
For the record, after the Orioles, Royals and Pirates (6), the Mariners and Rays have had 3 top 5 picks in the past 7 years. Outside of the Nationals 2 #1 overall picks in 2010 and 2011, no other team has had any more than 1 top 5 pick over the past 7 seasons. Of course, the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins and Indians will all be having their second top 5 pick in the past 8 seasons tomorrow.
It is safe to say that all winning sports teams are built the same way. They all have a combination of drafted players, free agents and players obtained via trade. Some teams rely more on free agents and trades, but they do have players who contribute that came from their own farm system. Other teams have a core of players developed themselves, but use free agents and trades to fill out a championship team. The bottom line: winning teams seldomly, if ever, win by just bringing in free agents, just building through the draft or just making trades.
Every season, teams struggle to live up to expectations, or simply are not good enough to compete in one's division or league. Sometimes it is a disappointment and other times it is a foregone conclusion a team will not be good. In the case of the latter, it is certainly fair for the fan to want to have an idea of how long it will be until the team returns to competition. That brings us to the day and age of overemphaisis on players who have not played in the major leagues yet.
Some fans feel like a player that they have never seen play before could not be worse than what they see on an everyday basis. In several instances, they are right as bad teams sometimes have players that do not belong in the major leagues. But I think fans take it too far when they put undue faith in their team's farm system. Like getting rid of all players over the age of 25 and replacing them with those that are under is guaranteed to make the team better. That is frustration talking, not logic.
After a season like this, it is understandable how every team's fans want a Mike Trout or Bryce Harper. Most would settle for a Willin Rosario, Wade Miley or even Todd Frazier. Let's start by talking about players that are in Trout and Harper's league. Anybody remember Alex Ochoa? How about Alex Escobar? I can think about can't miss players like Sean Burroughs and Corey Patterson where organizations counted on their teams to change because of these players. Point is, there is never a guarantee. And I am simply talking about the players who are backed by the hype.
What about the players that are not backed by the so called hype? This is where my problem lies. Just because your team stinks, is it a guarantee that the players that are currently in said team's minor league system are the solution? If a GM is in charge of putting a good team on the field, they are held accountable for the results of the major league team. If they cannot essemble a competitive MLB team, what is to say they can develop players in the minor leagues? But fans of a bad team will still leave out hope that the future is better. Sometimes for no other reason than the fact that those players are young.
Lets take the New York Mets, for instance. They traded Cy Young Award winner RA Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays for Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. Whether the trade is good are bad will be determined by how d'Arnald and Syndergaard do once they reach the major leagues. That trade gave the Mets three of the top 100 prospects in the major leagues right now with Zack Wheeler added to the other two. From that perspective, it is a good thing. But scouts say the trade moved the Mets overall farm system to within the top 20 in baseball. Did those scouts who meant to be complementary forget there are 30 teams in MLB? A top 20 farm system is not the same as a top 5 or top 10 farm system. While there may be a little more to root for, for Mets fans, there is still no guarantee. It would be a lot more encouraging if the Mets were known to have the best farm system in MLB, or at least in the top five. But they do not.
People like to point to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays and most recently, the 2012 Oakland Athletics as examples of how teams should be built. Though both teams deserve credit for what they did, two points need to be made. One: The Rays lost in the 2008 WS and have not been back since, despite being competitive every season. The Athletics got huge production from Yoennis Cespedes and Josh Reddick. Cespedes was signed to a 4 year contract prior to the season and Reddick was not a prospect when he was acquired in the Andrew Bailey trade. The A's are not part of the norm. For every team that has a season like Oakland, there are the Royals and Pirates. Even the Nationals only got Stephen Strasburg and Harper because they had the worst record in baseball two years ago. And they got lucky as top picks like Matt Bush, Brien Taylor and Luke Hochevar either never made the majors or failed to be franchise pitchers.
So, the motto of a lot of people continues to be: If your team stinks, the organization should quit competing on the major league level for years (as if the prior losing wasn't enough). Then... maybe... the young players will become something. But what if they don't? Do you quit for the next series of years? There is some luck involved in picking players in a draft. I disagree with those who think a team in that spot cannot trade for a player over 30. I also disagree with the fact that team cannot sign a free agent over the age of 30. Just like with the younger players, it all depends on the player. It is time to spot stereotyping non-major leaguers as being the only solution for the future. If a team gets rid of all older players and plays these younger ones, it is a promise that a series of players who are the same age as the ones the team just traded will be on the team when the team gets better. To me, it is a matter of the trust of the players that are on a roster. Some could be a huge influence on the younger players brought in. And the chemistry is usually better with players who have been on a team for a while as opposed to somebody from another organization trying to fit in. But, once again, it all has to do with the player, either younger or older.
A lot of attention has been given to free agent RHP Zack Greinke, and rightly so as he should get a contract in the excess of $100 million. Former Cardinals RHP Kyle Lohse (he is unlikely to return) is coming off a career season, but has done very well in the majority of his five year career in St Louis. Entering age 34 for the 2013 season, he should get himself a multi-year deal better than the one he signed with the Cardinals before the 2009 season. His 2008 season where he was 15-6, 3.78 in 33 starts and 200 IP got him his 4 year, $41 million deal with St Louis. His last two seasons, particularly his 2012 season, should get him a deal which should pay him about $13-$15 million a season at a length of about 3 or 4 years.
Lohse led the NL in winning percentage (.842) with his 16-3 record in 2012. He seems to have defined himself as a ground ball pitcher and it has been very good over the past two seasons. He also had career highs in IP (211), Ks (143) and WHIP (1.090). He was 14-8, 3.38 in 2011, after going 15-6, 3.78 in 2008, so he will not be getting rewarded for one season like he was in his last contract. Though few larger market teams will be in the mix, as the preference is usually in power pitchers, Lohse will get a lot of attention and there should be several suitors. I have selected five of the most likely destinations and explained why I think he will end up at my number one choice.
5. Detroit Tigers: While some can say Detroit can use Lohse as a contingency plan if they are not able to bring back Anibal Sanchez, I think the Tigers may be able to benefit more from having Lohse than Sanchez. Having Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello all being hard throwers, balancing it out Doug Fister and Lohse may be best for the makeup of the rotation. The Tigers seem poised, however, to retain Sanchez.
4. San Diego Padres: I have said before that I expect the Padres to be active during this offseason. They have a new ownership group that seems like it may be willing to spend. They should fly under the radar when it comes to OFs like Josh Hamilton, BJ Upton, Juston Upton and Josh Willingham. Lohse would be interested in pitching his home games in San Diego, one of baseball's most pitcher friendly parks.
3. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are now without three fifths of their 2012 opening day rotation, as Shawn Marcum will likely leave as a free agent, joining Greinke and Randy Wolf missing from last year's mix. Yovanni Gallardo was missing some of his dominance of past seasons and the Brewers can use a number two starter. Lohse could marvel in more abscurity playing in Milwaukee after spending the past several seasons doing the same.
2. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles, in my opinion, would be one of the best fits for Zack Greinke. It seems however, he will end up in Los Angeles with the Angels or Dodgers. The Orioles should be in the mix for a starter like Lohse, as they will also be looking at Edwin Jackson and Sanchez, among others. Lohse should be able to keep the ball down in hitter friendly Camden Yards.
1. Kansas City Royals: The Royals have been serious about upgrading their starting rotation, something they strongly feel was the reason they were not in contention in the AL Central. They have traded for Ervin Santana and signing Jeremy Guthrie to a three year contract. Lohse would put the finishing touches on a solid offseason, putting the Royals in contention with the Tigers and White Sox. Their rotation will be improved with Lohse, Santana, Guthrie, followed by a mixture of Bruce Chen, Vin Mazzaro and Luke Hochevar- if the three are retained. They also have LHP Mike Montgomery almost ready to help the big league club as well as Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino recovering from Tommy John surgery. It is realistic to expect the first three to keep the team in many more games than last season.