Musk retweeted it, calling it "Best analysis of Model 3 to date"
* They estimate the parts cost around $18k and the labour would be around $10k.
* They did lab tests on the batteries, which came back with the cathode being a mere 2,8% cobalt, compared to the current industry standard of around 8%. (Note: if these numbers sound low, that's compared to the total mass of the cathode, not the mass of the metals in the cathode; the cathode is composed of metal oxides, so you have to account for the oxygen mass, as well as other things). Tesla has definitely surpassed 8:1:1.
Responding to a question as to whether Elon agrees that the $28k per vehicle figure is realistic for when production is at full (10k/week), Musk responded, "Definitely."
Note that this was a teardown of a Model 3 LR with PUP, and they came up with a cost of only $28k. Now think of the other common options - paint (mostly profit), AWD (probably a very healthy profit margin), Autopilot (pure profit), FSD (pure profit), etc, etc.
Tesla is going to be flooded in cash once they get production running smoothly. Of course, until everything runs smoothly and quickly, their labour (and other associated costs) are going to be much higher than the estimated value.
I’m assuming this does not include fixed costs.
Correct, it sounds like they're just talking about parts and labor.
Yeah, the variable costs at $28K seems like a solid number. That doesn't mean 50% margin though, nor does it mean we got ripped off paying twice that.
This helps highlight how important it is for them to ramp up to higher volume. Their fixed costs won't go up very much as them improve volume. That will lead to the fixed costs per car dropping over time and increasing their margins. This seems to be very accurately following the original Secret Master Plan.