In Feb 12-13, Sankei Shimbun Co.,Ltd carried out an opinion poll on issues of Japan’s politics and security policies. 86.7% “agree” that the government or Diet should start discussing nuclear weapons, while only 8.5% “disagree.”. 84.1 % of respondents are anxious about the present situation of nuclear weapons in North East Asia. Answering a question on desirable defense systems for Japan, 10.2 % support an “independent defense with its own nuclear weapons.” Although an argument on nuclear weapons has been taboo in Japan, the time has come for Japanese to discuss the issue.
In final article, the failed plan to introduce nuclear submarines in 2005 was revealed with comments from high-ranking officials of the Defense Agency at the time.
The revealed facts and polls themselves are not so surprising. Yet such articles allow the silent to realize that they might no longer be in the minority. It gives them confidence in their opinion. Though the trend significantly raises leftist concerns, it undoubtedly mitigates the sense of guilt caused by talking nuclear armament, or the nuclear taboo, which has been shared among Japanese since the tragedy in Hiroshima.
One more point. There was a slight change in Sankei’s serialization. Whereas Sankei is famously known for being hawkish, alongside the largest newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, especially since the September 11, it has always emphasized the importance of the Japan-US alliance against those who press for independence. As it watches the Japanese public downgrading their credibility toward the United States, Sankei may shift its position from Japan-US Alliance absolutism to become a self-defense supporter.
"…Though the trend significantly raises leftist concerns, it undoubtedly mitigates the sense of guilt caused by talking nuclear armament, or the nuclear taboo, which has been shared among Japanese since the tragedy in Hiroshima…"
I think perhaps more than anything this represents the general tendency for Japanese to be more willing to discuss certain kinds of security norms more openly- nuclear, collective self-defense etc. So in a sense I do think the power of "Taboos" is breaking down – but I would be hesitant to interpret this as a greater acceptance of nuclear weapons as an option. But I think more openness in discussion is beneficial even if it merely reconfirms the status quo.
That's right. As you wrote, the point is "more willing to discuss," and not "a greater acceptance of nuclear weapons." That's why I say that the poll itself is not surprising. But, there is many variables, and many Japanese are people who easily change their position from one side to the other one. So, these kind of signs are worth watching, I think.
Thank you very much for your reply. You make a good point – sometimes opinion polls are unstable and can be hard to interpret in Japan especially on nuclear issues – sometimes they change in unpredictable ways – I remember reading once that after the original NK nuclear shocks in the 1990s support for nuclear weapons went down, not up in Japan, contrary to many US policy makers expectations. Even today I see many US based analysts (not usually Japanese experts) who after a round of tension suggest that Japan is on the cusp of getting nuclear weapons and that it is only a matter of time. Like you say there are many variables – I often think it depends on who is pushing the agenda – are they domestic conservatives? Are they US diplomats? Someone previously involved in the military? I think these factors can strongly influence Japanese security reactions.
Anyhow, thank you for the article and I hope you post more often – it is always good to get a Japanese perspective on these issues.