When faced with a high leverage situation in which the offensive team prioritizes scoring one run over the possibility of scoring many runs managers may be tempted to sacrifice bunt when a leadoff hitter reaches base. As a pitcher with the objective of not giving up that critical run, you should (in the majority of situations) command the zone, throw strikes, and take the out. The analysis below shows that there are limited situations in which a sacrifice bunt actually increases a team’s probability of scoring a run and 81% of the time a sacrifice will actually decrease the probability of scoring.
This framework can model any two-batter sequence in a game. For example, the first state of the game could be no outs, runner on first base, a pitcher with a .350 wOBA against, a batter with a .275 wOBA, and an on-deck batter with a .400 wOBA. If that batter successfully sacrifice bunted, the next state of the game would be one out, runner on second base, a pitcher with a .350 wOBA against, and a batter with a .400 wOBA. If the likelihood of scoring is higher in the second state of the game, the sacrifice bunt had a positive impact. If the likelihood of scoring is lower in the second state of the game, the bunt had a negative impact. Table 1 below shows the change in probability of scoring after successfully executing a sacrifice bunt with no outs and a runner on first against an average pitcher for various levels of batter and on-deck batter wOBA. The blue boxes indicate situations in which a sacrifice bunt would improve the offense’s chances of scoring. The red boxes indicated situations in which a sacrifice bunt in detrimental to the offense’s chances of scoring. For example, if the current and on-deck batter both have a .350 wOBA sacrifice bunting would decrease the probability of scoring by 2.3 points. However, if the current batter had a .280 wOBA the sacrifice bunt would increase the probability of scoring by 1.3 points. The keys to determining whether sacrifice bunting is a good idea is the current batter’s skill (bunting is better for lower wOBA batters) and the differential between current and on-deck batters’ skill (bunting is better when the next batter has a higher wOBA). These results align with baseball intuition and most observations (eg pitchers bunting).
Figure 2 is a heat map of plate appearances by batter and on-deck batter wOBA with no outs and a runner on first base. The majority of plate appearances in the MLB, 81%, occur in situations in which sacrifice bunts have a negative pay-off.
While watching the MLB playoffs this fall do not fall into the fallacy of thinking teams need to play small ball to increase their chances of scoring at least a run in a high leverage situation or pivotal game.
5 Standard run expectancy tables condition only on the number of outs and baserunners associated with previous on-deck wOBA). Once again, I built a logistic regression model to predict the likelihood of scoring with those variables as regressors.
Brad Woodfield possesses his BA from Lafayette University (NCAA I), double majoring in fields of Math and Econ. En route to his MBA ’18 with concentration of Econometrics from the University of Chicago. Brad has teamed up with Lokation Nation on the data and analytics side, to provide more studies and information for the baseball community to view and fairly determine results of pitching command and location, in relation or accordance with velocity. We will be utilizing a variety of topics and theories to help us better understand how command and location may be a bit underrated in terms of what makes pitchers truly successful. Brad brings unique perspective to his ability to number crunch being that he was a Division I pitcher for Lafayette University in the Patriot League (NCAA I). Welcome aboard!