Most of the state was expected to have drier than normal conditions this season, with drought possible.
The latest forecast drastically contrasts with early March, when this year's basinwide supply was predicted to be 90 percent of normal — an amount that hardly would have impacted farmers and fish.
But expected mountain precipitation didn't arrive in March, which caused the snowpack to fall further behind what is considered normal this time of year in the upper basin, said Chuck Garner, river operations supervisor for the Bureau of Reclamation.
"We had projected to get 80 to 85 percent precipitation in March," he said. "But when we went through March and didn't get what we predicted — we only got like 22, 23 percent — that dropped our prediction."
"All eyes now are really on how the snowpack comes off and some of the smaller tributaries where headwaters didn't get much snowpack," Harvester said. "The later that snowpack comes off, the better for fish, irrigators and everyone through the end of the season."
"But that is something that needs to be in place in order for farmers to pull water to keep their crops alive," he said. "If this declaration wasn't in place, we would not be able to set up quickly enough."
"They'll be so exhausted they'll be less likely to recover because oxygen (in the water) is so low," he said.
Only getting about 70 percent of water supply is something most growers can deal with so long as the supply doesn't decline too much below that, said Ric Valicoff, president of the Roza Irrigation District board.
"They've done this many times in the past," he said. "They know how to handle a low water year. It's when you get down to the 30 and 40 percents is when people start scrambling."
The leased water supplied the district for eight days, but that wasn't enough to avert a temporary shutdown, Revell said.
"It's going to cost us a lot more money (to lease water) than it has in the past," he said.
"Right now it's snowing above 4,500 feet, and it's not warming up to the point where it's going to come off right away so it's looking good right now, Garner said.
Harvester said he's optimistically cautious. He points to the 2001 drought, when May temperatures reached 100 degrees, "which resulted in a drastic loss of snowpack and compounded drought situations later," he said.
"We've got weather right now that could be putting down snow in the high elevation — we don't know," Valicoff said.