June 9th, 2010 12:22 PM by Lehel S.
Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite a mixed open in stocks and a lack of economic data to drive trading. The Dow is showing a gain of 11 points while the Nasdaq is currently down 8 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but due to some strength in trading late yesterday we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.
There is again no relevant economic data scheduled for release today, but the market is showing some reaction to comments made by Fed Chairman Bernanke late yesterday. In a speech last night he said that the economy is gaining some momentum but that employment concerns remain high. However, he did not indicate when he thinks the Fed will begin to raise key short-term interest rates. His words were basically positive for stocks with a somewhat negative tone for bonds. This is also influencing trading this morning, but to a small degree.
Chairman Bernanke will speak publicly tom orrow to the House Budget Committee on current economic conditions and budget-related matters. His words could again influence the markets enough to affect mortgage rates, but unless he says something surprising, I suspect they will have a minimal impact on tomorrow's mortgage rates.
Tomorrow afternoon brings us the release of the Fed's Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve to determine monetary policy during their FOMC meetings. If it shows much stronger economic activity than its last release, we could see mortgage rates rise tomorrow after the 2:00 PM ET release. Particularly so if it indicates inflation is growing.
We also have to watch for the results of tomorrow's 10-year Treasury Note auction. Results the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If investor demand was high for the Notes, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand cou ld lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates.