Anything else too far out.. it’ll probably be one of those..
No 15k mcl route till March 18th if Jordan thinking of dropping lower.. too far out IMO.. run back in 30k and see what happens..
Looked at boys by mistake..
guessing she targets either 23rd or 4th..
Also if able to run 23rd and still no forward progress.. the spacing such that we could run her back at 15k after that on 17th..
Obviously I’m hoping she romps next out at 30k on a dry surface.. but thinking ahead in case..
And the slop factor seems like we think slop was part of issue.. and would rather her not run on slop going forward..
If u enter 23rd race and comes up slop again.. u can scratch and then enter in mar 4th race next day to try to get dry track..
Tomorrow entry day for 23rd if she’s gonna try on fairly short rest..
No options to drop down lower as tony suggested till mar 17th which is a long gap between races for a claimer.
Claimers need to run more often to pay the bills..
I’ll talk with Jordan this evening and see what he is thinking race wise for HS and FC coming up. Update to follow.
I’m looking forward to see HS race again even if we have to step down the ladder to a lower level claimer. Heck, she doesn’t have a published running style yet. Based on her last race I take it she doesn’t like the slop, so let’s catch a dry track next time. Amen.
I’m still enthused although mildly disappointed with her last out. Last year on Feb 23d Gray Ransom broke his maiden and we were all ecstatic. Let’s do it again with the filly.
After loosing a shoe in her last event, Holiday Storm had a bit of a sore foot this week. We are pleased to announce that she returned to the training track today and is 100% healthy. Jordan feels that HS is best suited for running on turf… and we have a few options coming up that Kona pointed out above. Unfortunately we don’t have an option to step down to a lower level and stick to grass racing.
Normally if our finances start to dip down we would put the horse in at a lower level of competition which gives us better odds of picking up a more significant paycheck. As you guys know, this Partnership is designed with no recurring payments… that means HS will need to start picking up the check soon. The problem we face here is that she will probably have a better go on the turf vs. dirt, even at the $30K level. That means our next target event could be the Ides of March (3/15/18).
As stated in the Faction Cat update, we may shake things up a bit with a new rider. If you have any suggestions please post them here, and feel free to weigh in on any other issues concerning the GIII Holiday Partnership. Your feedback is valued, and we have over 100 unique website visitors per day so don’t be afraid to speak up or ask questions. We want these Syndicates to be a positive and educational experience for everyone.
It will likely overfill as all others have to date… if she gets left out than what? Also it could rain and go to dirt.. she will likely run against more runners on turf vs turf. Sheer odds in her favor on dirt to pick up a better check. She went off at 24-1 on her turf race in a large field. Last out in a 7 horse field she went off in the single digits.
Also she needs to learn to run on dirt long term.. unless she improves drastically.. low level claimers are almost exclusively run on dirt.. she already got a shot on turf got a good trip near a soft pace and didn’t improve much.. both of her siblings are dirt routers in low level claimers.
Ok Kona, I’ve got you down for the March 17th $15k dirt route. The February race is too soon, and the $30K is too rich.
I’m surprised you think she is better on the dirt… I thought her best race thus far was NYE on the turf. She beat a lot of horses that day by a long way.
Last out she got beat by 20 but I’m sure that maker horse got a huge figure for the level .. time in that race was very fast..
If 23rd is too soon I’d go with dirt on 4th also 30k.. her burn rate for training+vet is 3k+ a month gotta run her as soon as she’s ready and a race that halfway fits her appears..
Also field size a very big factor for me.. based on way things have gone to date she will have to beat significantly more horses in a turf race than dirt race.. and that turf race seems pretty much guarantee to be overfilled (every 3yo filly 30k mcl turf has so far) so a significant chance she won’t even draw in.. granted I guess she can enter the 17th race if that were to happen..
If she goes all the way to the bottom it may be large field as many horses that will never win a race are in there and that’s as low as they can go..
Bottom line I don’t like waiting over a month between races for a horse that is running in 30k claimer or lower.. like gray just gotta fire when ready and hope you get a soft draw and it goes well..
Also I’m for entering the 30k turf not the 15k dirt if we are waiting that wrong..
Also 30k turf vs dirt is generally rougher race as again u have larger field sizes, more chances of trouble that happened to many in the turf race she ran in.. chances of hitting the board and picking up a solid check better on dirt..
Really need to learn to proofread before I hit enter with my unpredictable autocorrect lol.
As for a new jockey, I vote Adam Beschizza, if we can get him. He’s already familiar with HS. I know he rode another in HS’s last race after we all thought he was riding HS, but that’s how it goes with certain trainer/jockey connections. He Is one of the top jocks at FG and that’s his home track… he should be one of the first jockeys who figures out how the track is playing on any particular day. I’ve said it before but I never pay that much attention to who’s riding when I’m handicapping a race…unless that rider has poor stats. But as owner’s, I think we all want the most accomplished rider that we can get. I say try him on FC as well!!
Sharp has a pretty big barn and likely has a runner in pretty much every mcl race..
He’s riding a sharp horse in the 15k mcl race on 23rd.
But yeah if we can get him great..
Personally don’t think jack has done anything wrong.. no race with us where I can say he gave a terrible ride.. just bad luck/hasn’t had the horse under him..
Shaun Bridgmohan for jockey. I’ve seen him ride for Jordan before. I call him Grumpy because he (almost) never smiles and he’s all business and good on dirt and turf.
I doubt u could get him .. he rides chalk or whatever is best horse on paper he can get.. unless the race draws extremely weak for the level HS will once again be a double digit horse on paper as she was last time she ran on turf.. in a full field 30k mcl turf race..
Go back and look at the comments for her turf race over half the field got whiped out.. Brutal trips everywhere .. that race just turned out to be a very slow race race cause half the field had no hope with their trips.. and HS broke clean and had no trouble..
On the other hand both her dirt races she’s had some excuses..
1st our Jordan has never won and she was sluggish early..
Next out the slop fest and she got squeezed outa position early and too far back..
Anyway hopefully I’m wrong since we don’t seem to be going this direction.. but I’m of the opinion she hasn’t a much better chance of hitting the board in dirt than turf..
Basically our 3 options for Holiday are March 4th for $30k dirt, March 15th for $30k turf or March 17th for $15k dirt.
Entries don’t close on our first option until 2/25, so I’ll send out a Partner email next week to wrangle a few more opinions. Also we will take the jockeys getting the most comments in order to Jordan. Realistically though if we are deciding between dirt races… 3/17 should be much easier.
So essentially we will be waiting till Indy opens on 17th..
If u race in 4th u have a chance to squeeze another in end of March before they leave..
If u wait till 15th or later she’s only racing one more time at fg.. and nothing available for her for at least a month from then..
I’m hoping the 23rd race drawing tomorrow doesn’t fill and on the overnights to taunt us to enter what will likely be a small field ha..
If we go dirt I would like to drop in class n try to snag a W.
Dropping in turf not an option so competition is more varried from top to bottom. She would fair better in 30turf vs 30dirt.
Main issue I have with cheaper claiming turf races is that they are notorious for lots of bad trips galore.. HS was one of the lucky ones in her only turf try.. pretty sure fg reduced max from 13 to 11 to help reduce some of this.. as in HS last turf race where lots of trouble they let 13 run but the one she drew into but got cancelled they weee only going to let 11 run..
Vs run once either 30k turf or 15k dirt..
Running twice gives u significantly better chance at making more money.. bad trips happen all the time..
If she fails after two more try’s at 30k it’s clear we skip kee and drop lower at Indy..
I just think people are clinging to hope that turf moves her up.. but I think her first try on it proved it didn’t.. she’s just likely like her half siblings were.. lower level claiming dirt router..
No shame at all in that most horses are claimers..
I can see her winning at 15dirt or hitting board in 30turf. just don’t see her hitting the 30dirt board. plus all the riders have said she moves better over turf n i agree. just watch the replay of her lone turf try, and keep in mind it was her first grass race in a packed field.
Once/if she breaks her maiden she will need to go to cheaper n2l level like gray has done.. they don’t card cheap n2ls on turf anywhere..
And I haven’t given up on her on dirt.. she’s a one paced horse.. she doesn’t have multiple gears.. she just keeps on a grinding as best she can which is typically dirt… she didn’t have that necessary kick in the turf race after getting a good trip near a slow pace..
If she doesn’t get so far back early on dirt.. I think she’ll have a fighting chance to win at 30k given the right field.. obviously she was hopeless last out against that maker..
In her turf race, Holiday Storm spent too much time on a dead rail that many were avoiding. I think she’s a better grass horse, but we will see. I think we look at the races coming up and take them as they come as long as she is fit and has hopes of getting fitter. She just needs races at this time.
Yeah that’s only potential factor as there was mention of dead rail.. but again pretty much everybody outside in that field got whiped out..
Just personally feel the minute Jordan seems her ready to run in a week we enter her in the next available 30k or lower turf or dirt route and see what happens.. the more races she runs in the better a shot she has to pay her way.. running every 30+ days is too much time between races IMO..
My vote goes to running her in a turf race…her preferred surface. Why mess around with switching surfaces? It didn’t work out so well with FC who was running very well on the dirt…his preferred surface.
I don’t think either horse has a clear preferred surface..
FC has run fine on turf previously just missed at KyD only other try he broke terrible and was off a long layoff.. last out was same problem as his other FG race on dirt he just didn’t have it.. he probably ran a better figure race than the 71 he ran on dirt at FG..
HS to my eyes and speed figure wise hasn’t shown a clear preference to surface.. yeah she lost by least amount of lengths in turf race but the time was slow..
HS has yet to get a solid break clean trip on a dry dirt.. Jordan never has won with a first time starter so she wasn’t ready to fire her best shot there.. and last out the slop fest and got bumped a bit early outta position..
You keep mentioning field size and poor trips when referencing the turf, yet in her last dirt race the field size was smaller and she got the worst of the trip with all the bumping and getting squeezed at the start. It’s all relative and there is a lot of luck that goes into it.
As far as you pointing out FC’s figure being better on the turf than dirt, you’re forgetting to mention it was a sloppy track he obviously did not care for. I would bet that on a fast dry track it’s a different story.
I would lean to the opinion of the people who are around her and work with her everyday in regard to what surface she travels over better.
If we go with turf that’s fine.. but once again she will be double digit odds on the board.. in a smaller dirt field she has better chances.. yes there is luck involved by luck better in smaller field.. she got lucky in the turf race not lucky in the sloppy dirt race.. if she goes on turf hopefully she gets another inside draw.. way outside at two turns with short run to first turn is tough.. pretty much guaranteed to go 3-4 wide around and could get bumped around..
Also I’d be saying go for turf if I was on the 4th..
I’m not against running on turf.. I’m against waiting 30+ days between races.. and the way scheduling is if we wait till March 15th we will be waiting another 30+ days for the next one in late April sometime.
Just gotta enter um when ready and roll with the punches and see what happens.. we aren’t dealing with a stakes horse here where we have the luxury to take our time and find what’s we feel are the perfect conditions for her.
Or even draw in.. as the last two mcl turf races have overfilled with the max also eligibles..
As we are finding out it takes a lot of luck to draw into a maiden claiming turf race and have it actually run on turf..
I’m pretty sure Jordan wants to put his horses in the best possible position to win races, so I’m confident he’s picking spots that offer the best chance to maximize earning potential. Putting horses in the wrong races doesn’t do him, his owners or his horses any favors.
HS went off at 9.6-1 in a 7 horse dirt race..
Just doesn’t make sense to me to wait longer for a race that will very likely be overfilled and weather may not cooperate.. I have no idea how the races will draw.. but based on how things have gone this meet it looks likely she would go off at lower odds in the dirt race just based on sheer number of horses in the field..
If we do wait for grass .. Hopefully she gets in ..gets a clean trip ..and proves me wrong..
As an owner I think the number one goal is placing horses in races where they have single digit odds chance of winning on paper and let the luck roll and see what happens..
A full field 30k mcl turf race does not meet that criteria.. yes could draw abnormally weak.. but for a median draw she will go off at double digit odds in a full field… the 2nd one she drew in was abnormally weak because all the top horses got unlucky and stuck into also eligibles… unfortunately that got washed out.. she woulda had a much better shot on slop that day vs the 7 horses field she recently ran in..
You’re really going to use bettors opinions as a way to choose what race to run in? As a bettor you should really be able to see how flawed that thinking is. There’s a reason why favorites win at the percentages they do and why bettors look for value when wagering. The betting public’s opinion isn’t a good barometer for choosing races for your horse.
There’s a reason it’s VERY difficult to win at betting horses.. cause the betting public as a whole usually gets most races right.. favorite has won every race HS has been in and most of FCs races..
Personally I bet very few races.. only in big fields when you can count on some good degree of bad trips/chaos do I find value and go into attack mode.
It’s hard to turn a profit because of the high Takeout.
The whales that rebate whore don’t even care about turning a profit.. about volume churn and hoping to break even.. all kids of stats and stastics that go into how the final odds flush out..
I don’t even touch races under 8 field size.. bigger than field better your chance of making a profit long term statistically.. less take per horse..
I barely play anymore cause field sizes have gotten so bad mainly only look on the big racing days and when we got a horse running.
That’s such a small sample size and you know that…and NO the betting public does not get most races right, not even close. But whatever, you have your opinion and other people have theirs.
What’s percentage of favorite hitting the board and picking up a nice check vs a double digit off horse?
FC has run 2nd many times as the favorite..
If your horse is going off at double digit odds you simply don’t have your horse in the right race (unless you are at bottom level and that’s pnly option left).. yes occasionally they win but most of the time no..
Like I said earlier, I’ll trust the opinion of the people who are around the horse everyday, training and working with them.
I’m of the opinion it’s very overstated.. and this isn’t a knock on Jordan at all just how it is in general.. I gave the example of arrogate.. “training great” but never had it after Dubai at race speed..
We’ve been told FC training great and physically great but two races to FG to date he’s clearly a slower horse when he has to run race speed.. why who knows not me.. but that’s the clear observation..
When FC trains he’s works in 49-51 in a race he has to go 46 to keep in touch and have a shot.. That’s at least 15 lengths faster.. U don’t know what u got till they race..
As for the turf angle yeah u can talk size of hooves and action.. but she’s not training at all on turf and only ran one race at race speed.. and that didn’t show me anything as far as she clearly prefers turf.. as she got the best trip of her career in a field of other horses that got terrible trips..
And good discussion tony I clearly enjoy ranting about the ponies.. and also clearly I have some OCD issues lol..
Anyway point in my rants is so partnership can be as successful as possible..
I believe running when ready is the best option here.. I certainly could be wrong.. it’s always a guessing/probability game with the ponies which is what makes it so much fun as it is for me.
It’s what makes it the greatest game in the world, everyone has their own opinion and can back up their opinion with their money. Trust me I like seeing horses run as often as they can if it’s in everyone’s best interests, so I’m not opposed to your theory.
Agree 100% with Kona on this. Provided she’s healthy, 25 days rest is plenty, the more she runs the better chance she has to get a check and it also gets her more experience. Waiting around for the “perfect race” for a horse at her level is the dumbest thing you can do in horse racing IMO.
She needs to win a race, not just get a check at this point. You think dirt is the answer, then drop her in for $15K.
Still can’t wrap my head around you thinking a full field of 30k mcl on turf.. gives u a better shot to win.. than a smaller field at the same class level on dirt..
Strength of draws are unpredictable but pretty clear she will face more runners on turf than dirt..
Just random odds but giving benefit of doubt she has better shot on turf.
She still has a better chance at a win going for two races with 15-1 shot..
Wasn’t paying attention to overnights ..sounds like she wasn’t ready for 23rd anyway.
There was a 15k mcl dirt route in overnights it filled with 9 today running on 23rd.. the 30k didn’t fill and not on overnights.. will take a look at field curious how weak..
Next race available March 4th 30k unless something on overnights..
Err my bad is 6f lol..
23rd wasn’t an option for HS anyway..
They drew 30k dirt today and not even enough to put it on overnights.
A 9 horse 3yo maiden filly 15k mcl race is running on the 23rd.
HS would still have to step it up to win a 15k dirt race. Looking at the 23rd race now.
Likely chalk ran 2nd at 15k last out getting a 51 BSF.
Horses getting older and continue to move down the ladder looking for the winning level.
Regardless what level and surface she races next she is going to have to improve significantly to win.
Since we are voting on things .. I vote that Kona cut back on the caffeine for a while!
Sorry to hear that HS had the soreness issue … Hopefully doesn’t become an problem later.
My first inclination is to keep her on turf and not drop into a too low claimer. However we are running into a fiscal reality. I vote for first best available race and be tactical (immediate) vs strategic (long term). We can be strategic when we have more financial freedom.
As far as jockey – if you don’t ask you can’t get… Go for best available – let them say can’t rather then us.
Near impossible to pay the bills running a claimer 3 times in 4 months..
You can’t plan for overfilled races, races not filling, races getting cancelled, sloppy tracks, bad trips.. etc..
enter when they are ready to run.. in the first available race that is close to where they belong and see what the chaos of horse racing brings you.. the result may surprise you like gray winning at 6f when we were constantly trying to get him in 5 1/2 races/shortest race possible.
I think that’s the way to go, but only my opinion. Jordan has applied his best judgement on these issues & I’m fine with that.
Just the breaks of how things shook out.. bad luck but just how it goes sometimes in horse racing..
That turf race that got cancelled was a great spot her.. weak draw in the main field.. with the best horses getting stuck AE.. even on sloppy who knows what woulda happened as it was a weak field.. than it got cancelled .. and that threw everything off scheduling wise as far as turf racing goes..
Based on last 30k mcl turf that drew they only letting 11 run now and at least 16 entered first race she entered… probably have at least 25%+ chance of not even drawing in..
if we are waiting for turf and she gets left out there is the 15k for backup..
Hi Sandi, I talked to Jordan tonight. He said HS would likely breeze on the weekend of March 3rd. Taking it a bit easy on her after having a sore foot out of the last race when she threw a shoe.
Sounds like that settles it for HS.. pointing for the 30k turf/only one more race at FG .. hopefully she draws into main field and not stuck way outside.. and the weather cooperates.. Early March looking good and dry in NO..
We’re not in it for the money. Just the whole experience is fun for us. Let HS rest and get well.
I hear ya I’m the same way .. horse first the rest secondary..
My main point though is when you have a horse that is ready.. especially one that looks like they are going to be a low level claimer.. I don’t see the point of sitting around for weeks waiting for what we feel is the perfect race for them..
Going to be near impossible to keep her much longer financially running her 3 times every 4 months which is the pace she’s on right now.. every check helps even if it’s a 3rd or 4th place finish..
Sounds like she wasn’t ready for the March 4th race due to foot issue so that’s cool we waiting for the turf now.. if she doesn’t manage to draw in what will likely be an overfilled race there is the 15k race a few days later on dirt for backup..
Gray for instance has run 6 times in 4 months fairly standard for lower level claimers..
1 win, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 3 didn’t get a check.. sometimes race gonna draw tough or weather not gonna cooperate and have to run on slop the horse don’t like or he has a poor break which likely cost him a better placing in his last race where he ran a solid 3rd.. seems like he’s rounding back into form liked how he looked pre race had nice energy warming up and fought on after the poor start.. it’s racing lots can happen the more you try the better your chances of making more money to pay the bills..
That said the main issue with HS hasnt been our race choices/too much patience.. but rather weather/race cancelled bad luck threw our scheduling off.. losing shoe sore foot etc..
The 30k mcl that was a potential for HS didn’t fill but may have if she was entered.. on overnights and will be another small field of it fills.. but sounds like she’s not ready..
Fastest workout time to date.. granted how they do it more important than time..