After an odds-against winner in Germany, Kev's looking for a another one in Italy.
"These teams recently shared out three goals in a 2-1 win for Virtus Entella, and the league leaders have one of the best attacking records in the division."
It wasn't quite the Bavarian borefest we anticipated, but Greuther Furth's 2-0 win at Jahn Regensburg last night kept us under the 2.5 goals line, and gave us an odds-against winner to kick off the week.
We're making a short hop to Italy, because there's a top-of-the-table clash in store in the third-tier Serie C, as the leaders Virtus Entella make the journey to fourth-placed Pro Vercelli.
Virtus Entella has only existed in its current form since 2010, having been initially refounded in 2002. They are top of the table at present, but have had a recent wobble, especially on the road.
Over 2.5 Goals is trading at [2.88], and whenever I see a price that big in that market, it makes sense to build a case for that outcome if possible. My suspicion is that the price has been inflated by the league leaders' recent troubles on the road (they have drawn a blank in their last three away games), but there are reasons to back overs here.
Firstly, the two teams played the reverse fixture last month and shared three goals in a 2-1 win for Virtus Entella. Secondly, three of Pro Vercelli's last four league matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. Finally, Virtus have the second-best goalscoring record in the division with 46 goals in 27 games, and they have scored at least twice in an away game on six occasions this term.
I'll take a swing at backing overs here at [2.88].