Under is 7-1-1 in CLE last 9 road games.
CLE are 19-7 in their last 26 Thu. games.
Over is 20-9-1 in CLE last 30 Thu. games.
Over is 25-9-3 in DET last 37 games as a favorite.
DET are 29-12 in their last 41 games as a favorite.
Over is 26-11-2 in DET last 39 on Grass.
Over is 10-4 in Sabathia's last 14 starts vs. DET.
What to do today? All the aces seem to be out, some even pitching against each other (CLE@DET). I guess most people will be on those aces, on odds between 1.35 and 1.40. I won't, of course, as I wasn't born yesterday.
My main bet today are the Halos, as Tejeda is pitching for Texas, the guy with the highest slugging percentage in the league. Needless to say, the Angels have the 2nd highest AVG in the league, .286, and only Detroit with .288 is better.
Now, what bet do we take? Angels RL? Angels over 5.5 runs? Atlanta to win the first 5 innings? Bet on first 5 innings has exactly the same odds as ML. 1.633. And I think Tejeda is far worse than Texas' relievers, and Escobar is slightly better than Angels' relievers. So, the value is in first 5 innings, especially we get our stake back in case of a draw, just like yesterday with 0:0 in first 5. Runline is undervalued at 1.952 IMO, and saying that Angels will score 6 or more is a gamble, we would need at least one high-scoring inning. I'd take that for over 2.00, but the odds at 5Dimes are 1.833. So, we bet on 4 1/2 innings only, as LAA are visiting and will get 5 chances to score while Texas will get 4.
Angels to win the first 4 1/2 innings, 1.60, 7/10, Gamebookers.
I'd also take under 8 runs in ATL @ LAD game, but I didn't win the "under" bet in a while, so maybe my judgment on the number of runs is faulty.
Ricky Nolasco SP 60-day DL - Elbow - 7/2/07 .
so logical choice is RL, which is now being payed pretty well @ bf.
Won nearly all my picks yesterday, just the Twins @ Yankees finished with 8 runs and that means a draw ( cash back ). Anyway, it was a good day.
Simply reason for that - Peavy (9-2, 2.09 ERA) is very good. Padres are winning by pitching and this will be the same tonight. Peavy was excellent against the Marlins in his last outing. Peavy had one of his best starts of the season against the Marlins (39-46) on May 6, giving up an unearned run, one hit and striking out 10 in seven innings of a 3-1 victory. The Padres are not putting a lot of runs on the board and Kim (3-4, 5.19 ERA) looks to continue his sucess in his last game ( 6 innings, 1 run) and against the Padres. In his only start against them, he gave up one run, five hits and struck out seven in 7 2-3 innings of a 3-1 victory for Colorado on July 28 of last season. Peavy will be able to shut the Marlins down today, at least in 5 innings. I dont think that Kim will allow more than two runs against the Padres offence. Small stakes here.
Later more, just posting this because it starts soon.
First, San Diego has won just four of its last 12 home games, mainly due to their bad offense.
And second, SDÂ´s offense is one of the most weakest of all teams, NL and AL. They scored a total of only 11 runs in their last 5 games. How lousy... Ok, todayÂ´s starting pitcher Peavy had one of his best starts of the season against the Marlins, but it doesnÂ´t matter. WhatÂ´s the use in Baseball having a good starter on the one side, but missing offense on the other?
Yesterday they even failed to score a few runs against FLAÂ´s (ugly ERA) starter Josh Johnson, and at least the Padres won over the Fish only because of an error in ninth with 1-0. Nothing more to say so far.
If I would have to bet anything on this game, IÂ´d take FLA with their starting pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim, who is in strong uptrend at the moment, allowing only one run and only 4 hits in his last outing, and surely wants to solid his ERA in the further starts. He isnÂ´t as bad as his ERA tells us, be aware, please. Under totals could also be a good choice, as itÂ´s really hard at Petco Park, the home of the Padres, to score runs or homers.
I'm must thank you. I take this pick. GL!
Maine (9-4, 2.74 ERA) and Jennings (1-3, 3.69 ERA) are on the mound for their teams. Both had good outings, especially Maine. He allowed only 1 run in 8 innings against Philadelhpia. This was not a big surprise, looking in his previous starts. He won all four of his outings April 18-May 4 while posting a 1.30 ERA in that stretch. He has a 1.61 ERA in winning his last three starts. In his career starts against the Astros, he allowed only 2 runs in 15 innings. His opponent, Jennings allowed 3 runs in 7 innings. He is doing his job well but he doesnt gets run support. Talking about the Mets offence, we can say, that they have a slump and i got the opinion that their offence is doing a better job in the second half of a game and against the bullpen. Maine and Jennings will do the job. I personally dont like the Mets here, because of their offence and their bullpen.
I am thinking about San Francisco ML but i am not sure yet. That could it be for tonight. GL.
I already wrote about Wainwright being undervalued, the team hasn't backed him up adequately in recent outings he is still quite solid. He has had some troubles in Cincinnati but I'm keen to think he will get back to his game as he returns home, as Great American Ballpark doesn't suit some pitchers, being quite a HR prone park, even though he didn't get rocked because of that, but anyways, the point is, I expect him to get back to his usual self tonight.
Wainwright is 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA in his last seven home starts, even though run support has been an issue. Arizona have been winning on the road for a while before totally falling apart during their current road trip, the Diamondbacks have been outscored 37-19 on the trip, while batting .236 and posting a 5.47 ERA.
The D-backs will send out Doug Davis who went 2-0, 3.57 in St Louis last year when with the Brewers, and he has had 3.71 ERA on the road this year, however he went only 2-7 during the stretch (plus his overall YTD ERA bloated from 3.05 to 4.29 in the last 35 days) The Cards should feast of last night's come-from-behind win and we get a rather appetizing price on the home team featuring a rather solid pitcher.
5 hits, 4 runs and the San Diego defence with an mistake.
Hoping for the Mets now.
Both of my tonightÂ´s MLB picks (FLA win and FLA under) would have brought me lots of $$$. Game is over, and ended exactly as predicted!
DidnÂ´t bet anything on MLB tonight, and wonÂ´t do it, not tonight.