The return of the new Congress must be like the first day of school in the Fall - nostalgic to see old friends; reminiscences about the departed; a sense of maturity about moving up a grade; and anticipation about the new kids - perhaps a speedy running back for the football team or a cute girl to help with your English homework. Lets talk about the new kids.
- The tricky "racist" Republicans have a growing number of minority leaders in Congress and governorships: Hispanics (Marco Rubio in Florida; Brian Sandoval in Nevada; Susana Martinez in New Mexico); Indians (Nikki Haley in South Carolina to join Bobby Jindal in Louisiana); and competitive Vietnamese (Joseph Cao in New Orleans; Van Tran in Orange County.) While there are a few competitive African American Republicans (Allen West in Florida; Tim Scott in South Carolina), they remain outliers in the age of Obama. In the Senate and governorships, the Republicans are demonstrably more diverse than the Democrats.
It will take awhile to see who John Boozman of Arkansas, John Hoeven of North Dakota, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, and their scores of compatriots really are. Most will be average. But just a couple of years ago, nobody knew Paul Ryan of Wisconsin or Chris Cristie of New Jersey. The younger generation of political leadership is tilting decidedly Republican.
This week's video is an ad which Marco Rubio - my favorite of all the newcomers - is using to close the deal in Florida. Reaganesque with better credentials.
Here's an interview on NPR in Milwaukee promoting my new "philosophical thriller", The Target, available at Amazon.com and by order at most book stores.
- The amount is staggering - approaching $4 billion in total, and twice the 2006 total.
-﻿﻿﻿﻿ The totals are about equal for both parties, a far cry from 2008 when the Democrats got 58% of the money for Congress and ﻿Obama got 64% of the money in the presidential race. Everybody loves a winner, particularly if they can dispense favors and punishments.
- There are lots of pots - the national state, and local parties; the national House, Senate, and Governors campaign committees; the Political Action Committees (which limit individual contributions to $5000); the now-unlimited independent expenditures committees; the candidates. With donor anger at the Republican National Committee for financial irresponsibility, Republican money has shown up elsewhere - but it has shown up.
- Over the past decade, and in 2010, 14 of the top 25 contributing organizations were strongly Democratic (largely unions). The Democrats get the majority from Hollywood, lawyers, and educators; the Republicans get the majority from the construction and energy industries. Less than 1% comes from mom and pop contributors.
-- That the Chamber of Commerce is illegally funneling foreign money to the Republican candidates. No evidence needed. In the 2008 election Obama refused to divulge the source of thousands of potentially foreign contributions - but that was a different era.
-- That all they innocently want is disclosure. Ask Target which was the subject of a boycott for contributing to a pro-business committee which sent some funds to a candidate opposed to gay marriage. Target's exemplary gay rights record counted for nothing. The purpose is to intimidate potential corporate donors.
-- That individuals like the Koch brothers are secretly funding right wing candidates. Like George Soros, Media Matters, and MoveOn.org don't exist.
This week's video is an audio - an interview with Milwaukee's NPR station during the current tour for my nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target.
Occasionally you really can see over the horizon. Washington's November 15 "lame duck" session and the first few months of the 112th Congress that begins on January 3, are worth at least a squint.
- Obama's team will be filled with second tier staffers who have moved up with the departure of Peter Orzag at Budget, Christina Romer at the Council of Economic Advisers, Larry Summers at the National Economic Council, National Security Adviser General Jones, crisis loving Rahm Emanuel, David Axelrod (early in 2011), and perhaps even Robert Gates at Defense. None of the replacements is perceived to add strength or business, military, or foreign policy experience.
- The House will likely be in the hands of John Boehner who has been excluded by Nancy Pelosi and vilified by Obama. There will be a small army of energized conservatives with a mandate, and many fewer "blue dogs". Darrell Issa stands ready to investigate everything.
- The Senate will be deadlocked with the filibuster strengthened even if the Republicans do not take over. Moderate Republicans and Red State Democrats will understand what the Tea Party has done to their absent liberal colleagues. With 23 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2012 belonging to Democrats, look for an effort to recruit a party-changer or two before the high tide.
- President Obama will stand ready with his newly-activated veto pen. Fresh off of his 50 Democratic fund raisers in 2010, the post-partisan president will soon be in full 2012 campaign mode for himself - the one thing that he knows how to do. Look for a class warfare theme.
- The Bowles/Simpson Deficit Reduction Commission is to make its recommendations by December 1, with an "every-thing's on the table" approach - Social Security; health care; whatever. With 14 of 18 votes needed for a recommendation, nothing substantive will emerge, but the effort does provide a vehicle for shaping discussion in the new Congress where "fiscal responsibility" will be the watchword. Repeal of Healthcare will be tried and quickly changed to a major effort at modification.
- The Afghan War strategy review is set for December, with the National Security Adviser, Tom Donilon - earlier called a "disaster" by the Defense Secretary - leading the "we need to focus on domestic politics" camp. Pity our Afghan allies.
- Meanwhile, the "blame it on China" camp has Congress calling for a major appreciation of the value of the yuan as the solution to our employment problems. And free trade agreements ... forget it.
1. Unless the Tea Party Republicans can really grab the fiscal responsibility moment, the national debt will push past the $14 trillion Gross Domestic Product. Look to Paul Ryan's leadership for any hope.
2. The push to devalue the dollar and otherwise antagonize China, could lead to the end of the dollar as the international reserve currency. Refinancing our debt will become very expensive.
3. The military community (domestic and NATO) will become highly critical of Obama's strategy of sending our kids to die in a war that he had no intent of winning.
This might be a good time for that extended trip to Australia.
For this week's video, here's the Axelrod/Schieffer interview about Obama's baseless Chamber of Commerce foreign money claim. No evidence? No problem? The tragedy is the damage to the presidency.
We look forward to seeing seeing some of our Wisconsin and Chicago readers during our October 16-25 tour for my nuclear terrorism novel, The Target.
Special Note: See the final item below for details of my October Midwest Book Tour for The Target.
I've been trying to figure out why Californians are largely immune to the conservative Tea Party movement that is washing over the rest of the country from Alaska to Florida. With the arrival in the mail of the voter pamphlets for the November 2, election, I've got some theories.
- Meg Whitman's millions blew out any opposition for governor within the Republican Party - OK, I get that. But in the Senate Republican primary, conservative Chuck Devore came in distant third to Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell. Some of the Republicans for lesser offices are attractive - Damon Dunn for Secretary of State; Abel Moldonado for Lieutenant Governor; Steve Cooley for District Attorney - but none would call themselves a Tea Party candidate.
- With the Republicans looking to pick up 40 to 60 House seats nationally, California with 34 Democrat (and 19 Republican) seats to offer, may gain one and lose one. Gerrymandering is a part of it, but there is more to the inertia than that.
Premise # 1: Californians got disgusted before the rest of the country did, and have given up. With the recall of Governor Gray Davis in 2003, The Governator took over and soon showed that he couldn't do much about the entrenched interests, the chronic budget deficits, and the dysfunctional legislature. If Arnold couldn't do anything, why get excited about another revolution?
- Thirteen state races: The Governor; The Lieutenant Governor; the Secretary of State; the Controller; the Treasurer; the Attorney General; the Insurance Commissioner; the Superintendent of Public Instruction; the Board of Equalization; the U.S. Senator; the U.S. House Representative; a state Senator; and a state Assembly member.
- Twenty-two local races: Judges (12); The Board of Supervisors; the Assessor; the Public Defender; the Board of Education (3); the Community College Board (3); the Bay Area Transit Director.
- Nine state initiatives: Including legalization of marijuana; deferral of a prior initiative to make California's air cleanliness requirements the most stringent in the country; and lots of tinkering with voting, budgeting, and taxing.
- Fifteen local initiatives: Including reducing the City's contribution to public employee retirement and health care plans; elimination of a requirement that city bus drivers have at least the second highest compensation in the country; allowing non-citizens (including illegals) to vote in school board elections; and lots of tinkering with voting, budgeting, and taxing.
It is hard to be too mad at government when everything is put up for popular vote - and for the people to hold themselves accountable.
Premise # 3: Whatever. Life's good. Let's go to the beach.
When evaluating national polling numbers people should recognize that they would be much worse if they were not skewed by the 38 million Californians who think that the rest of the country is on the wrong track.
Readers interested in my nuclear terrorism thriller, The Target, can hear interviews on WUWM in Milwaukee (October 19 at 10 AM), and WGN in Chicago (November 14), or, for the locals, attend appearances at the Book Bin in Northbrook, Illinois (October 16), the Delafield Public Library (October 19), Books & Co. in Oconomowoc (October 21), Apple Blossom Books in Oshkosh (October 22), Fireside Books in West Bend (October 23), and Book World in Ripon (October 23). So far, so good.