Gold is finally glittering—and don’t be surprised if it continues to shine. Gold, remember, is supposed to be a store of value, and has kept up with inflation over the long term. As Andrew Bary noted in our September cover story on gold, an ounce would have bought a good men’s suit in 1918, and still does today.
Gold can also act as a buffer in tough times. While the S&P 500 has tumbled 16% during the past three months, gold has gained 8%, acting as just the hedge against market chaos that investors hope for when they buy it. The SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund gained 1%, to $120.86, on Thursday, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF climbed 1.5%, to $20.93.
Given continued uncertainty in currency markets, there’s a good chance that gold prices keep rallying. The dollar won’t look great in a slowing U.S. economy with a large fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, the euro looks cheap relative to the dollar, but the main argument for that is that the news out of Europe can’t get much worse—not a great reason. “The reason for thinking positively about gold at the moment is that we have deteriorating dollar fundamentals and an absence of reasons to like pretty much any other currency,” Juckes writes.
Many markets around the world, including exchanges in Germany and Japan, are closed for New Year’s Eve.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for December. Economists forecast a 15 reading, down from November’s 17.6, suggesting that economic growth is moderating.
The nation’s first minimum-wage law for ride-sharing firms like Lyft and Uber goes into effect in New York City. The minimum wage will be $17.22, after expenses, which is a $5 bump from the current pay rate of $11.90, as estimated by the Independent Drivers Guild, which represents over 70,000 app-based drivers.
Brazil’s President-elect Jair Bolsonaro is inaugurated in Brasilia. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to attend the ceremony.
Japan’s stock market remains closed. Trading resumes on Friday.
The 116th U.S. Congress is scheduled to be sworn in. Republicans maintain control of the Senate, as they have since 2015, while Democrats are back in control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2011. The first order of business will be electing a new speaker of the House. Nancy Pelosi, who was the nation’s first female speaker, is expected to reclaim the gavel she first wielded in 2007. Democrats netted 40 house seats in the 2018 midterm elections.
Ford Motor reports U.S. sales data for December, while General Motors releases data for fourth-quarter 2018.
Goldman Sachs hosts its 11th annual Healthcare CEO Conference in New York. Agilent Technologies , Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and Humana are some of the companies slated to attend.
ADP releases its National Employment Report for December. Consensus estimates are for a gain of 180,000 private-sector jobs after adding 179,000 in November.
are for a 57.8 reading, down from November’s 59.3.
Cal-Maine Foods , Lamb Weston Holdings , and RPM International report quarterly results.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the employment report for December. The headline unemployment rate is expected to remain at a half-century low of 3.7%. Economist are forecasting a gain of 180,000 for nonfarm payrolls, up from November’s 155,000 increase, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% in November.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his two immediate predecessors, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, are scheduled to be interviewed jointly at the American Economic Association’s annual meeting in Atlanta.
The Energy Information Administration releases its petroleum status report. U.S. crude-oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year.
Gold is finally glittering—and don’t be surprised if it continues to shine.