The second quarter of 2018 saw an anticipated pick-up in economic growth, as the temporary factors which dragged on the economy in the first quarter came to an end. However, with above-target inflation continuing to exert pressure on consumers’ purchasing power, and Brexit-related uncertainty weighing on business investment, we expect overall growth in 2018 to remain relatively subdued at 1.0%, with only a marginal increase to 1.1% next year.
Despite the subdued economic growth environment, the labour market in Northern Ireland continues to surprise on the upside, with data from the Quarterly Employment Survey pointing to a strong first half of the year. Therefore, we have revised our forecast for employee jobs growth upwards to 1.8% in 2018 and 0.5% in 2019.