Labour has been driven out of various parts of the country over the past decade, but none more comprehensively than in south-east England. The 2010 election left not a single Labour MP in this region. Three of its five counties were solid blocks of blue until very recently, when a couple of Tory MPs defected to Ukip in late 2014.
I’m including the counties of East Sussex, Essex, Kent, Surrey and West Sussex in this region.
Lloyd’s majority might be big enough to see him returned in 2015, particularly if Labour supporters vote tactically. The Lib Dems’ other two seats in this region ought to be pretty safe.
Jackie Doyle-Price’s majority of 92 in Thurrock is one of the smallest in the land. On paper, her seat ought to fall to Labour with ease. In reality, Ukip has been making such a strong play for the constituency that it has become a three-way marginal. My instinct is that Doyle-Price will hold the seat, but it will be very close.
That leaves Brighton Kemptown, Hove and Hastings & Rye. Whether Labour makes any progress here will be a real test of the party’s popularity in the south of England. It may be that the party wins just one seat, Brighton Kemptown, and has to rely on gains elsewhere if it wants to end up the largest party in parliament.