Betting the Clippers Over the total at home is the gift that keeps on giving. Probably sound like a broken record but the Clippers themselves average better than 125 ppg. at the Clip Joint since the first of the year and Lost Angeles still has a seeding to play for and will look to get up and down here. The Grizz play hard every night and have far more options for points with Valanciunas for Gasol. Play the over.
The Cavaliers are 6-1 to the over in their L7, play little defense, and playing out the string .... just assume to get up and down the floor and pad the stat sheet. The Clippers are 6-1 L7 to the over and average better than 125 ppg. at the Clip Joint. Los Angeles can still avoid the Warriors early by winning out and they have plenty of people that can put the ball in the hole. With their usual production, the Cavs don't need to do much heavy lifting here. Play the OVER.
We used the Magic on Wednesday and were an easy winner over a similar team that has quit in the Pelicans. The their credit, the Grizz are 6-4 in their L10 but just 2-6 last eight with suitcase and face an Orlando team that has won and covered three straight. Further, the Magic are 5-2 ATS in their L7 at the O-rena and have won and covered three straight hosting the Grizz. Orlando 106-94.
Love what the Brooklyn Nets have done but this is a team that is really beaten up with injuries at the moment and their recent play indicates it. Help is on the way but it won't get there tonight as Brooklyn faces a salty Denver Nugget team that was gutted by Detroit in the first game of this roadie. EVERYTHING went down for the Pistons Monday night and the Nugs figure to primed for a top effort here with their superior depth. Denver extends late for an easy win.
The Pistons are a hit and miss bunch that will be playing for it's season over the next 10 games vs. a schedule that is favorable while teams that will be their main obstacles to a playoff run like Miami (start 7-game roadie tonight) are all in tough. Detroit was lights out against the Nuggets last night and face a Knick team with all new faces and undoubtedly tanking for Zion and the two premier free agents they'll be in the market to get after the playoffs. Andre Drummond is playing great and Blake Griffin looks to be dialed in. With a decent shooting night, Motown wins comfortably.
Oklahoma City is rolling under Paul George who really seems to have found a home in OKC. Thunder games are 9-2 to the over L11 but the Heat will dictate pace on their home floor and this is a big big number. Miami is very deliberate on offense and 7 of their L8 games have gone under the total. The last eight games in the series have ALL gone under the total and we'll go with the flow here looking for the games to fall 204-210. Play the Under.
This is the back end of a home-and-home with the Jazz prevailing 106-102 in Salt Lake City Friday night. Utah has won eight of nine and seems to flick the switch about this time each year. It comes with playing defense and that the under is 8-3 in Utah's L11. The Wolves are treading water and dealing with injuries. Utah dictates the pace and the score here and it's under the total.
DMack's NBA Play of the Day is on the Denver Nuggets -9.5 The Nuggets are over their temporary vapor lock and quietly have won seven of their last eight. Denver just 2-5-1 ATS in its L8 road games but if they are ever going to blow someone out, it will be tonight in Phoenix. The Nugs have completely dominated the Suns of late going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. The Suns haven't been much defending their home floor going 1-5-1 in their L7 games. Don't expect much defense to be played here (series 7-2 to the over L9) and with the total a modest 217, a look at the over might also be in play. Denver 125-106.
Looking for the Thunder to close out 2018 on a positive note by continuing their solid play and getting a Maverick monkey off their back. Dallas has lost 7 of 8 but have covered four straight so they're losing close games. That said, that's the key here is lose close games. The Thunder have covered three of four on the road and have been a strong second half team. OKC is 0-5 ATS in their L5 visits to Big D and that crashes and burns here.
This is the back end of a home/home B2B for the Pelicans but this is not the best of sports against a fresh red-hot Rocket team coming in. The Pelicans were taken to the limit last night by Dallas and still needed 48 and 17 from Anthony Davis to eke out a two-point win. Houston is 8-2 L10 tp crawl back into the Western Conference playoff hunt and has been shooting lights out since Chris Paul went down. Would have liked to have gotten the opener but the -2 is fair and manageable.
The Nuggets are 4-0 SU and ATS and after a week look to be second best in the West. Strangely enough, the Nuggets held their first three opponents to less than 100 points and are getting it done on both side of the court. Lakers got first win last night but not the greatest of spots, B2B with multiple suspensions. The Lake show is 0-2 while allowing 133.5 per at full strength. Nuggs by double-digits.
Golden State can twist the knife with a win here and there is no reason to see why they won't. The Warriors are 25-3 in the playoffs since acquiring Durant and even with Harden and CP3 having big games and Steph being a non-factor, GSW still wins in rocking chair style by 13 points. Can't see Warriors being happy going home with just a split. Golden State by eight.
The Celts Brad Steven's tries to take one thing away each game and it's proven to have great success. Big defense and poor Lebron shooting helf the King to just 15 points while the rest of the non-Lebrons shot 33% (11-33) from the field. When you don't play defense yourself, you have to score. Look for Lebron to to have 40+ here, setting things up for Kevin Love and Kyle Korver and sending this game flying over the total.
The first win in the series was a little dicey while Game Two was pretty much was pretty much never in doubt. That will happen when you have a young team with little playoff experience getting punched in the mouth early, overcoming, and settling in. At this point, Celts relieve that Kyrie and Gordon Hayward ain't coming through that door so best to get rid of the Bucks quickly and rest. Great spot for a Celtic team that is 19-5 as a dog, 27-13 ATS on the road, and 12-1 ATS off a straight up win as a dog. Boston straight up, call it 105-94.
The eye test is extremely important to me and after watching every second of the first two games of the series I'm convinced that the Pelicans are the better team by a pretty substantial margin. It helps to have the best player on the floor in Anthony Davis but the Unibrow's supporting cast has really stepped up and played well. Rondo has been the forgotten guy in the series and he's led NOP with precision and smart play. Trade deadline pickup Mirotic is a big that gives you almost the same numbers as Boogie Cousins and Jrue Holiday is very underrated. The Pelicans had chances to fold in both games in Portland and didn't. New Orleans 114-103.
The Bucks have split their last six games with the Celtics but there is no reason to give them the respect that they are getting here. Milwaukee has lost its L7 first-round series and hasn't advanced since 2001. They have the Greek Freak to be sure and there are some pieces in place but remember that this is a team that fired Jas Kidd during the year and never got anything going after he was replaced. Kyrie is out but Boston played well with his out and the Celtics are well rest and focused here after their kids were able to get a blow after being pressed into actual service by injuries and had to overcome the grind of the 82 game NBA schedule. Boston is the league's best coached team with Stevens and I doubt that Boston will any problems getting by Game One or this series which are both priced cheap.
The Thunder are off their best performance of the year, a win at Houston that snapped the Rockets 20-game home floor win streak. OKC finishes up tonight at Miami and at Memphis needing just one-win to clinch and a playoff spot and Russell Westbrook needing 34 rebounds to become the first player in NBA history to average a triple-double. It would serve OKC well to win both games and miss Houston and Golden State in the first round. You know that Russell and the team will be playing their butts off to get him the record. OKC 123-114.
It's hard to NOT like the Bulls catching all these points at home against a Nets team that is favored on the road for just the third time this season. Sure, Brooklyn has an excellent road ATS mark but certainly not in this spot and many of those ATS wins came in a fast start to the season. The Nets are just 4-8 ATS vs. losing records L12 and it's pretty clear that the Nets don't cover UNLESS they are getting these kind of points. THEY ARE GIVING here. Bulls 6-3 ATS L9 in the series and a moneymaking 6-2 L8 as a home dog. Wouldn't be shocked to see the Bulls win straight up.
Anthony Davis has taken New Orleans on his shoulders and the Pelicans are now knocking on the door of a first-round playoff home court. Bourbon Street has lost two straight after ten straight wins and gets the perfect patsy at a great number here in Charlotte. The Hornets have lost five of six, are 8-21 as a dog, 8-17 ATS against the West, and countless other techs to numerous to mention here. The Pelicans make it four straight in the series with a double-digit win.
There hasn't been much defense in Motown or South Beach of late. The Pistons have allowed 131-101-124 in their L3 road games, the Over is 6-1 L7. The Heat have averaged 112 ppg. over their L6 while their L5 opponents not wearing Memphis Grizz jerseys have scored 104+. The Over is 8-2 L10 series games with the three prior meeting this year ending in 2018-215-215. Play the Over.
The Lakers have won six of nine (7-2 ATS) and have won three straight against the Hawks. The Hawks have lost three straight and five of six. While Lakers are so much better with Lonzo in the lineup, the Hawks are currently in last place in the East and battling seven others for the worst record in the NBA. The Lakers hammered the Hawks 132-113 (-3.5) on January 7th and can figure on little resistance here.
Houston has won four straight and nine of ten. They easily won the first two games of this roadie at San Antonio and at Cleveland and now have had 72 hrs to get ready for a Brooklyn team that has lost five out of six. The Nets are having problems scoring (94-99-95-97-91) in five of last six games and that is simply not enough fire power to play with the Rockets. Houston 118-96.
The Bulls have won four of five games overall and are 9-1 L10 as road dogs. Further, they've won six of seven in the series and are 4-1 in their L5 visits to the Crescent City. The Pelicans have won four of five but are just 7-10 as home favorites this year and this is just too many points to overlook with a live dog like the Bulls.
New Orleans finds itself in an excellent spot here against a struggling team. The Pelicans have won 4 of their L5 games, are 7-2 L9 as a road favorite and are 4-1 in their L5 visits to the Philips Center. Further, New Orleans is 4-1 ATS L5 in the second of B2Bs. Atlanta is 2-5 L7 and suffered through the second worst first half in franchise history. Lay the bucket.
This is a long time off for both teams and while the Cavs are always money and razor sharp off substantial layoffs, I just can't get the Spurs/Warriors Game One out of my head where the GSW came out ice cold in both halves and the Spurs led by 23 midway through the third before Kahwi got hurt. Not saying that will happen here but what we do know is that we'll see a well rested and VERY interested Lebron ready to go vs. GSW team at it's most vulnerable.
Cleveland (Lebron) got somewhat disinterested after sweeping the Celts in Boston and it showed big time in the Cavs straight up loss and non-cover (down 20 in the first half) on the home side. The Cavs are 6-0 (5-0-1 ATS) in their six playoff road games already this year and with Warriors already working on three days extra rest, will look to put this series to bed tonight. Celts gutty, well coached and play hard but ... if the Cavaliers put together a complete 48 minute game here, they win easily and cover the double-digit number. Cleveland 114-96.
San Antonio gave it all they had in Game Three and while they were competitive into the third quarter, all they cam out with was a 12-point loss and an injury to a big man role player Davide Lee. Golden State is 5-0 SU and ATS on the playoff road this year with all five wins by 11+. Tonight, they can put this series to bed and start some extra rest as the Celtics have prolonged their agony an extra game. GSW has outscored the Spurs by 73 points since the Kawhi injury and takes care of business to improve to 12-0 in the playoffs with a 124-103 type of win here.
A Conference Final game with a line that is bigger than a Brooklyn Nets regular season number. Not interested. I'm interested in the total however. Isiah Thomas is out for the year and that's not necessarily a bad thing as Thomas was -20 in Game One and worthless in Game Two. We know that the Cavs are going to get theirs and a now totally unselfish Boston team can go out and play free and easy and avoid double-digit turnovers. Boston has no shot to win but they should come out focused here and run a crisp offense. Put Boston on 100 and the Cavs will take care of the rest.
The Cavs weren't the least bit rusty in bombing out Toronto in Game One of the last series and though this is 10 days rather than a week, Lebron and Co can thank their past playoff success on taking care of business in the early rounds to be fresh as a daisy and healthy when it matters like here. Extra urgency for Cleveland here knowing that Golden State is up 2-0 and will be waiting. Cleveland spanked the Celtics on this floor in March when the teams were battling for the one seed. Boston was never in that game, Boston won't be in this one off tough seven game set with the Wiz. Ultra-professional Cavaliers ..... call it 116-99.
Last year's travesty featured 369 points and 139 attempted (51 made) three point shots. The game was unwatchable and in this capper's opinion really gave the league a black eye. Adam Silver probably had something to say about that mockery and we fully expect a much more serious game today. Part of last year's problem was the West getting out to a big lead and then nobody felt like playing. Expect a much closer game tonight and with 25K or so per player on the line, maybe we'll even see basketball the final 12 minutes. This one ends closer to 300 than 350. Play the Under.
San Antonio has won 11 straight games on the second night of back-to-backs but have failed to cover the last four. Small number here against a team that has won five straight at home makes the money line the logical choice.