I keep hearing economists and analyst debating about the future of the Euro and one thing always strikes me – they never take into consideration the psychological factor attached to changing your national currency.
Of course most of the people commenting are americans and for them abandoning their currency is simply inconceivable. The Dollar is king and will remain that way, there is no question.
For most of the people in the 17 countries that participated in the currency change it was a really really big deal. Abandoning your currency is like giving up part of your national sovereignty, it’s a serious business, certainly not something that can be debated casually like we can witness it almost daily.
For the last 60 years most of european politicians have been working at building Europe, often having to fight the public opinion to make progress. Adopting the Euro was a major major achievement, logistically of course but even more psychologically.
10 years later the public has accepted this idea, it’s certainly not something that will be undo casually because of economical issues.
Maybe one country can leave the Euro but I simply cannot conceive that European leaders will let the Euro disappear. There are many many other steps before this happens. Of course nobody want to take those steps because they are painful (talk to the greek about that) but they will happen before we see the Euro disappear.
Interesting game of chicken between Apple and EPEAT.
Let’s explain a little. Apple makes computers and computers need to be recycled when we stop using them. But Apple makes innovative products with a design that sometimes goes behind what has been done (and recycled before). The latest MacBookPro Retina display is a good example of that, it features a few things that have not been done before (like a battery glued to the case).
EPEAT is one of those independent companies hired to rate the environment friendliness of computers, they put a label that guaranty a certain level of compliance.
Of course when a government agency want to buy a computer it needs to have that certification otherwise it’s just impossible to get it through the door.
Now let see how things play out.
- Apple cannot get EPEAT to certify their latest MacBookPro with Retina display. Not because that thing is treating the wellbeing of our environment but because it uses some techniques that are simply too new.
- Apple remove all of its product from EPEAT.
- Government agencies start complaining big time (they want their Macs so I can feel their pain).
- Background discussions take place.
- Apple apologize for making a mistake by removing their products from EPEAT and join again.
What you are not told is that in the meantime and without any publicity the MacBook Pro is now gold certified by EPEAT (after being previously rejected).
Interesting way to get what you want through an apology.
I have a personal theory about the upcoming iPhone 5 release. I see it coming sooner than later.
- Apple can be worried about their Q3 2012. If the iPhone 4S sales starts to slow down, having a product introduction would be a good way to boost the revenues.
- Every time a new Apple product is released there is a period of approximatively 2 months when this product is under some serious supply constraints. The latest to date that experimented this shortage of supply is the iPad 3. It has been available after a delay for at least 2 months. It was the same for the previous iPhone.
- iPhone 5 is a product that is expected to get a lot of success because of the renewal business. People who already use an iPhone and are waiting for the iPhone 5 to upgrade their old phone.
There are no numbers to estimate that market but a little survey is enough to indicate that it’s a big number of devices.
- The previous years sales number also shows that a lot of iPhones (and smartphones in general) find their ways under the christmas tree. Last year the christmas quarter showed a very large increase in iPhone sales.
So it would not be very smart for Apple to be supply constrained by 2 simultaneous events (renewal and christmas), that’s why I would not be surprised to see an announcement of the new iPhone 5 at the end of August or very beginning of September, instead of end of October.
That way Apple can work their way through the supply constraint due to renewal purchases through September and October. And do it all over again for Christmas in November and December.
I guess we can all agree that he core business of a company like Nielsen is to compile, analyze and present numbers. So, how can they explain this chart.
Nothing really overly complicated here, this is a chart of the market share of the different actors of the US cellphone market.
The problem is that the chart does not matches the numbers, really not at all. Android should have 50% of the area and the area dedicated to RIM is almost as large as the one allocated to RIM.
The correct chart looks like that and you can clearly notice the difference.
So, shame on Nielsen for presenting this chart in a completely misleading way. It’s their business to crunch numbers, can we still trust them to do that?