Japan’s searing summer of 2013 saw the lid slide further off Fukushima Daiichi and its Pandora’s box of radioactive and political crises. The company in charge, Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco), already Japan’s most distrusted firm,2 was irredeemably exposed as dangerously incompetent. A slew of reports concerning leaks of high-level radiation led to increasingly concerned appeals, from within Japan and from overseas, for the Abe Shinzo government to take over at Fukushima Daiichi.
Moreover, the latest leaks come in the wake of Tepco’s admission that contaminated water has been flowing into the ocean since the accident first occurred almost two and half years ago. Crises have popped up with such frequency that NRA Chairman Tanaka has described the plant as being like a ‘haunted house’ in which ‘mishaps keep happening one after the other’.21 The endless trail of problems, mistakes and obfuscations has left few doubts for most observers that Tepco is not up to the incredibly difficult and important task of decommissioning Daiichi. This awareness underlies the escalating calls for the Abe government to take a more hands-on role.
Incredibly, Abe and his close-knit circle are yet to fully grasp the magnitude of the crisis Japan is facing at Daiichi. Yet the longer Abe allows it to fester, distracted by nuclear sales, tax hikes, and the September 7 Olympic vote, the more he risks making the history books as the PM asleep at the wheel.
But, as Funabashi cogently warns, luck eventually runs out. And the longer TEPCO remains in charge of the clean-up and decommissioning process, the worse Japan’s odds become.
Without downplaying the seriousness of the contaminated water, and the other setbacks at Daiichi, it is important to recognise that things could very easily, and very quickly, get much worse.
Understandably, most commentary on Daiichi focuses on the multiple leaks of water laced with high- and low-level radiation, but the oncoming challenges are far more serious. As Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Advisor at the US Department of Energy and one of the world’s top spent fuel pools experts, has warned, sites such as Fukushima Daiichi “have generated some of the largest concentrations of radioactivity on the planet.”49 They need to be handled by the most competent and best-equipped expertise available.
But sit down and take a deep breath, because from November, TEPCO plans to begin the delicate operation of removing spent fuel from Reactor No. 4 fuel pool. There was no fuel within this reactor per se, so the ambient level of radiation is lower than the neighbouring three reactors. So in that respect, this is the easiest of the cluster. Even so, there are 1,533 used fuel rod assemblies tightly packed together in the spent-fuel pool above the reactor.50 They weigh a total of 400 tons, and contain radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released by the Hiroshima atomic bomb.51 The spent-fuel pool stands 18 metres above ground, was damaged by the earthquake and tsunami, and is in a deteriorating condition. It remains vulnerable to any further shocks, and is also at risk from ground liquefaction. One might add there is a significant terrorist threat, considering the damage that could be done with a light plane or some similar attack. Removing the spent fuel from No 4 and the other pools, bundles that among other fission products contain deadly plutonium,52 is clearly an urgent task but must be done properly.
Even under ordinary circumstances spent-fuel removal is a difficult task, normally requiring the aid of computers. But due to the damage, removal of the total 6840 spent fuel bundles from Daiichi No. 4’s spent fuel pool, the five other reactors’ pools,53 and the entire unit’s common pool will have to be done manually. This work will also be undertaken under arduous conditions, increasing the risk of yet another mishap. And if something does go wrong, the consequences could be far more severe than any nuclear accident the world has ever seen. If a fuel rod is dropped, breaks or becomes entangled while being removed, possible worst case scenarios include a big explosion, a meltdown in the pool, or a large fire. Any of these situations could lead to massive releases of deadly radionuclides into the atmosphere, putting much of Japan, including the metropolises of Tokyo and Yokohama, and even neighbouring countries at serious risk.
When the stakes are this high, who do you want to bet on? TEPCO’s track record is abysmal. They have done nothing to indicate they can be trusted with handling this difficult task. Even now there are few signs that TEPCO has fully understood the magnitude of the situation they – and we – collectively face, and many signs that their priority has been and remains the company’s bottom line not the public interest. This is literally a matter of national security – another mistake by TEPCO could have incredibly costly, even fatal, consequences for Japan.
While it may be politically inconvenient for Prime Minister Abe to accept, it is time to intervene and take over Daiichi before it is too late. The recent announcements by Abe and Motegi that the government will be intervening more directly in Daiichi are a necessary start, but these appear to be more about managing the political damage than resolving the key issue, which is that TEPCO is simply not up to the task of dealing with the multiple technological challenges. The ongoing debacle over the contaminated water leaks has clearly demonstrated that relying on the NRA to oversee TEPCO is insufficient. Fuketa Toyoshi, a NRA commissioner, recently complained that their “instructions, written or verbal, have never been observed.”54 The time for supervising is over – TEPCO must be relieved of control of the whole decommissioning process.
Understandably some may question whether things would actually be much different if the Japanese government took over from TEPCO. While there are certainly grounds for scepticism, the NRA has shown signs that it will be more independent and competent than its predecessor. And placing the Daiichi site directly under the control of the Japanese government creates different kinds of responsibilities and authority. Given that safely decommissioning Daiichi has become a matter that has consequences for all of Japan, leaving it in the hands of a private company (even if propped up with public cash) is insufficient. It is vital that Fukushima Daiichi’s decommissioning be fully taken over by the Japanese government with the assistance of an international task force of experts. Removing the spent fuels from the damaged reactors is something that has never been attempted before, and therefore Japan needs all the help it can get from the international community.
This is only one possible plan, but indicates the scale of initiative the Abe government needs to begin seriously considering. Reflecting on the disaster, former PM Kan Naoto recently observed that, “Somewhere inside me I just believed that, with Japan’s technological proficiency, an accident would not occur. I greatly regret that optimism now.”56 Kan’s hindsight is now our collective foresight, and Abe needs to view matters this way as well. Undue optimism or even wilful blindness must not be permitted to hold sway in handling the decommissioning of Daiichi.
It is certainly understandable that Prime Minister Abe and his backers do not want to directly take on this toxic job. They risk being tarred with responsibility for further mishaps. They will also have to release contaminated water, and thus risk undermining their campaign to restart Japan’s 48 idled nuclear reactors.57 But this crisis is clearly too big for TEPCO, and the public overwhelmingly wants decisive intervention. So the buck stops at the PM’s desk. Even if he cannot recognise the necessity of changing course with the way Daiichi is being managed, Abe should be able to realise that it is also in his political interests to make some drastic changes. While the Prime Minister may be in a relatively powerful position at present, with his party controlling both houses and facing a weak opposition, the political landscape could shift quickly if the situation at Daiichi continues to deteriorate.58 Indeed, many of Abe’s other key aims as leader – including restoring Japan’s economy and national pride – are dependent on successfully managing the precarious situation at Daiichi. Another major accident would greatly undermine his “Abenomics” program, which has been central to his political success this time around. Even his pro-nuclear agenda is reliant upon what happens in Fukushima: with each new problem or revelation, public scepticism towards nuclear power only deepens.
This crisis at Fukushima Daiichi transcends the politics of being being pro- or anti-nuclear. The evidence overwhelmingly indicates that Fukushima Daiichi’s current management is an unsustainable threat to the future of the country. To be polemical: Abe can save Japan or TEPCO, but he can’t save both. When put in those terms, the choice is an easy one. Or at least it should be.
Professor Andrew DeWit is Professor in the School of Policy Studies, Rikkyo University.
Recommended citation: Andrew DeWit and Christopher Hobson, "Abe at Ground Zero: the consequences of inaction at Fukushima Daiichi," The Asia-Pacific Journal, The Asia-Pacific Journal, Volume 11, Issue 35, No. 1, September 2, 2013.
Their joint editorial appeared in The Japan Times and is available in Japanese translation.
19 Mari Yamaguchi “Japan: Nuke plant operator found leak too slowly,” Associated Press (via Kansas City Star), August 28, 2013: here Tepco has since increased the tank patrol personnel by 50 to around 60 people in total, using thermography to check tank levels.
46 On these numbers, see Fred Dvorak’s careful work, “Japan Races to Contain Worst Fukushima Spill Since Meltdown,” Wall Street Journal, August 22, 2013: here and “Japan Studies Plan to Contain Radioactive Water,” Wall Street Journal, August 29, 2013: and here.
50 On this, see (in Japanese) “Fuel Removal Preparation in Final Stages: Fukushima Daiichi No 4 Pool,” Chugoku Shimbun, September 1, 2013: here This article declares there are 1533 used fuel rods in the pool, whereas the “Report by The American Nuclear Society Special Committee on Fukushima” indicates an inventory of 1535, of which 204 are new. See Table 1 “SPF Inventories and Estimated Total Decay Heat”: here The discrepancy is due to Tepco’s having removed two unused bundles from the pool in a test in 2012: Aaron Sheldrick and Antoni Slodkowski, “Insight: After disaster, the deadliest part of Japan's nuclear clean-up”, Reuters, August 13, 2013, and here.
58 Indeed, former PM Koizumi Jun’ichiro has of late been challenging Abe directly on the entire nuclear issue. Koizumi insists it is essential to declare a zero nuclear target now. He is apparently causing deep consternation in the Abe inner circle because he has the ears of the growing anti-nuclear LDP contingent. Koizumi persuasively argues with such examples as (re the claim that the Japanese economy will collapse without nuclear power) in the past it was said “Manshu is a lifeline,” but Japan developed in spite of its loss [after the Pacific War]. He also points to the fact that this was an extraordinarily, once-in-a-century, hot summer and nuclear power was not necessary. See (in Japanese) “PM Abe Deathly Pale? Koizumi Jun’ichiro declares himself for getting out of nuclear and calls on the PM to decide,” Nikkan Gendai, August 27: here Koizumi’s challenge was widely carried by the Japanese media. A summary of his thinking and how he arrived at his conclusions is available at “Former PM Koizumi’s anti-nuclear case makes sense,” Mainichi Shimbun, August 26, 2013: and here.