Update 11 p.m.: Hurricane Irma is “taking its time moving away from Cuba,” slowing its northwesterly track to 6 mph with top winds remaining at 120 mph as Key West awaits 90 miles away, forecasters said.
The track has moved slightly west, removing the Jupiter inlet and areas south of it from a storm surge warning, the National Hurricane Center said.
Top winds are now forecast at 125 mph in 12 hours and 120 mph in 24 hours, meaning it could remain as a Category 3 hurricane. That remains a dangerous storm, but a westward drift and the chance it will not fulfill earlier predictions it will regain Category 4 strength could have big implications for the impact on Florida’s most populated areas.
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet.
Update 10 p.m.: Hurricane Irma has advanced within 95 miles of Key West, with top winds near the center gearing back to 120 mph but the storm’s outer bands continuing to pose threats with a tornado warning in St. Lucie County.
Its speed on a track heading west and northwest has slowed again to 7 mph, but it it still expected to strengthen from a Category 3 storm to a Category 4.
Update 9 p.m.: The top winds of Hurricane Irma strengthened to 125 mph as it moved 105 miles southeast of Key West, forecasters said.
The storm is moving west and northwest at 9 mph, picking up the pace a bit since the last update.
Marathon Key reported a gust of 71 mph.
Update 8 p.m.: Hurricane Irma’s top winds slowed slightly to 120 mph as it disentangled with Cuba and began an expected approach to the Florida Keys, but its long reach is already producing thunderstorms and tornado threats across South Florida including Palm Beach County.
Its movement west and northwest has slowed somewhat to 7 mph, about 110 miles southeast of Key West. It is a Category 3 storm for now, but is expected to regain strength over warm waters, forecasters said.
“Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida,” the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update said.
Palm Beach County emergency officials said a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Wellington moving west at 35 mph, radar showed. It was expected to be near Lion Country Safari by 7:40 p.m. and possibly threatening Belle Glade by 8 p.m.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WELLINGTON, MOVING WEST AT 35 MPH.
DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
CAMP AROUND 800 PM EDT.
Update 6:45 p.m.: Hurricane Irma is now 110 miles southeast of Key West, with top winds of 125 mph expected to grow stronger.
A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key reported sustained winds of 46 mph with a gust to 59 mph. Marathon reported sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 66 mph.
Update 5 p.m.: Hurricane Irma’s top winds remained at 125 mph as it moved 65 miles east of Varadero, Cuba, but forecasters projected it will return to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds within 24 hours. Their warning to the Florida Keys: Expect major hurricane winds by daybreak.
The storm is moving to the west and northwest at 9 mph, keeping the southwest coast of Florida in its projected path.
But don’t get too focused on the eye with a storm whose shoulders are this broad, forecasters cautioned. Dangerous winds, tornadoes and other threats extend across the width of the peninsula, they said.
Hurricane-force winds, 74 mph or higher, extend outward up to 70 miles, and tropical-storm-force winds, or more than 39 mph, reach out up to 195 miles. For example, Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport reported a gust of 70 mph, officials said.
“Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center,” the advisory said.
Update 2 p.m.: The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Irma has maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, making it a Category 3 storm.
But Irma is expected to restrengthen as it moves closer to Florida and over the warm waters of the Florida Straits. It is moving west at 9 mph, and should take a northwest turn later today.
As Irma’s track has moved further west, life-threatening storm surge has become a bigger concern on the southwest coast of the state with more than 9 feet threatening to overrun barrier islands and move deep into the Caloosahatchee River.
Update 12:11 p.m.: A tornado watch has been issued for for seven counties until midnight as Irma’s outer bands begin to reach further into the state.
The watch includes Palm Beach, Broward, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Monroe and Miami-Dade counties.
Update 12:04 p.m.: Irma is about 210 miles south of Miami, or 260 miles south-southeast of Naples. It’s tropical storm-force winds extend 195 miles.
Tropical storm-force winds are still not expected in Palm Beach County until late tonight or early Sunday morning, with the strongest winds – sustained of 55 mph to gusts of 72 mph – happening Sunday afternoon into late night.
As of the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the “most likely” arrival time of tropical storm force winds in Palm Beach County is about 8 a.m. Sunday. The “earliest reasonable” arrival time is Sunday about 1-2 a.m.
The hourly wind times for West Palm Beach show the first sustained tropical storm-force wind at 10 a.m. Sunday.
Update 11 a.m.: Irma is down to a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph, but is expected to strengthen as it moves away from Cuba.
The storm has slowed to just 9 mph as it moves straight west. Irma is about 285 miles southeast of Key West. Hurricane force-winds extend out from Irma’s center 70 miles, with tropical storm-force winds reaching 195 miles.
National Hurricane Center forecasters said they expect Irma to regain 140 mph winds before making landfall in Florida, likely in the Keys.
The probability of Palm Beach County experiencing hurricane force-winds is about 5 to 30 percent, but Florida’s southwest coast’s chances are increasing for dangerous winds and storm surge.
The National Weather Service has measured gusts of 57 mph in western Miami.
The highest risk for damaging winds is in South Florida where the eyewall, and its dangerous right front quadrant, passes. On the current track, that could include Naples north to Tampa.
Western areas of Palm Beach County are under a flash flood watch with coastal areas under a flood watch. As much as 6 to 15 inches of rain is possible through Thursday.
Update 10 a.m.: Three tornado warnings have been issued in South Florida as Hurricane Irma’s outer bands start reaching Miami and Naples.
Alerts were issued in Miami-Dade and Collier counties this morning as the massive Category 4 hurricane reaches over the Florida Straits.
Tornadoes are also going to be a concern for Palm Beach County as Irma continues to move onshore and its more turbulent bands move north.
Update 8 a.m.: Interaction with Cuba has weakened Irma to a low-end Category 4 storm with 130-mph winds, but the storm is expected to regain strength once it moves into the Florida Straits.
Irma is headed west near 12 mph and is expected to make a move to the northwest later today and then north-northwest tonight. On its current path, Irma should reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning and be near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.
The new forecast track is basically the same as the 5 a.m., steering Irma more to the west with a center track skimming Florida’s western coast.
Palm Beach County is out of the forecast cone, a stark difference to just a day ago when the track was further to the east. But the area will still feel sustained tropical storm-force winds with possible hurricane-force gusts because of Irma’s large size.
Also, about 33 percent of the time, a hurricane moves outside the forecast track.
Under the 5 a.m. forecast, West Palm Beach is predicted to feel 75 mph-gusts on Sunday afternoon and evening, with sustained winds of 54 mph. That means gusts to Category 1 strength with sustained tropical storm-force winds.
Hurricane force-winds extend out 70 miles from the center with tropical storm-force winds extending out a whopping 195 miles.
The area in orange around Irma shows the wind field for hurricane force winds. The light green is tropical storm force winds.
This morning, the National Weather Service in Miami sent an alert noting that the outer bands of Irma were approaching South Florida.
Bands of Irma approaching South Florida.
Irma’s track shifted gradually west on Friday with the West coast of the state facing an increasingly grim future as the storm refused to make a forecast right turn.
Because of the angle of Irma’s approach to the West coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move onshore.
Related: Palm Beach County officials say don’t be lulled into complacency by western track.
The current west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by the turn to the north-northwest that would take the center parallel to the west coast of the state.
But it is still believed Irma will make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane that likely will be able to maintain near Category 5 winds if the center stays off the west coast of Florida where it will be partly over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.
The official forecast keeps Irma at major hurricane strength through at least early Monday when it is expected to be riding the coast near Tampa.
Storm surge on the southwest coast of Florida could be between 8 and 12 feet above ground level in some areas.
The Bermuda High is stronger than forecasters thought, keeping Irma on that westerly track longer than expected.
While forecasters had hoped a trough of low pressure delivering cold air to the northeast would be strong enough erode the Bermuda High and allow Irma to slip north into a weak spot, riding the western edge of the high out to sea.
Smerbeck suspects that Hurricane Jose may be playing a role in keeping Irma steering to the west.
Jose, now a Category 4 hurricane that is not expected to impact the U.S., is behind Irma. The two of them acting together may have bolstered the Bermuda High, moving it west and keeping Irma on its underside for longer.
Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Jose may have worked in tandem to bolster the Bermuda High and keep Irma on a more westerly path.
National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami stressed the size of Irma — 350 to 380 miles across — during a forecast call Friday.
Western Palm Beach County is under a flash flood watch with areas closer to the coast under a flood watch.
Tornado warning issued for St. Lucie County until 10 p.m.