The period of a business cycle has not been of the identical size; it has various from a minimum of two years to a most of ten to 12 years, though in the past it was often assumed that fluctuations of output and different financial indicators around the development showed repetitive and regular sample of alternating durations of expansion and contraction.
There is a view termed the midway rule 40 in accordance with which traders start discounting an economic recovery about midway by a recession. Within the 16 U.S. recessions since 1919, the common size has been 13 months, though the latest recessions have been shorter. Thus if the 2008 recession adopted the average, the downturn in the stock market would have bottomed round November 2008. The precise US inventory market bottom of the 2008 recession was in March 2009.