On October 18, Gregory Jones published a response to ISIS’s September 20 critique of his study on breakout timelines at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) in Iran. Jones maintains that Iran could fabricate 20 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) – enough for one nuclear weapon – in two months in a breakout scenario at Natanz, while ISIS estimates that such a scenario would take at least six months. Unfortunately, his conclusions are founded on an unreliable method. As a result, his estimate dramatically understates the amount of time Iran would need to produce 20 kg of WGU at the FEP.
Jones does not appear to have attempted to understand the reasoning behind the U.S. estimate, merely dismissing it as politicized intelligence. However, had he learned the basis of the U.S. estimate – and U.S. officials relatively freely talked to non-governmental organizations (NGOs) about this estimate made by the Department of Energy – he would have learned why his estimate is therefore viewed as so extreme. He also could have learned that, at that time, Israel assessed that breakout at the FEP would take less than a year but more than six months.