What is this like 3 or 4 degrees of Kevin Bacon in the Western US. Probably not a particularly amazing coincidence, when you consider all the other people the submitter has met.
There is one adjustment you can make to increase the odds. When you got to the line “attended a small college in Minnesota in 2014 with a degree in classics”, I immediately thought about Carleton, where my brother went. Not only is it a small college, but it is a small college with a sizable out of state population that specializes in liberal arts (85% come from out of state). Factoring that fact into the equation would meant the odds it was Carleton over other small colleges is much higher — maybe 15-20% or higher, instead of 1%.