The incredible cycling pattern is set for the season. We are moving into the second cycle of this year’s features of this year’s pattern. When will they return? What will they mean as we move through this winter season when they do return? Will California get blasted by massive winter storm systems as is being advertised by what is supposed to happen during a strong El Niño winter? We will be answering these questions in the next few days and weeks.
Here is the first cycle of this year’s pattern, and likely the first ten days of the second cycle. The pattern that is developing this week will feature a pretty big warm-up across a large part of the nation, and then within the next week a big change will happen.
The pattern forming now is quite similar to close to 50 days ago. There is a signature “look” to the pattern that we have been waiting on, and it appears to be showing up in next weeks storm system. How will it actually set up, and what areas will be targeted by the warm side of this storm, and which areas will be targeted by the cold side of this storm is yet to be determined. We do know that the AO and NAO indexes have continued to be positive and this favors a more unblocked and farther north track. This is not set in stone yet, so let’s see how it evolves in the coming days.
This is a warm pattern out ahead of next week’s change and temperatures will likely get close to record highs in many areas. The AO is forecast to dip into negative territory next week, and I have seen some model runs start to block up the pattern. It is something we have to monitor closely as it could have an impact on next week’s storm.
Good evening to you sir!!!
Will be interesting to see if the AO does indeed go as negative next week as some of the ensembles are showing. I personally think that there is proof in the LRC for it go that negative as it went close to minus 2 in mid-October. If it does indeed go that negative next week then it could be interesting here for sure.
It’s possible all this snow comes at once – one whopper in February.
60 on Monday does not mean a thing two or three days later after that.
Because the pattern is warm Terry. Where is the arctic air? It bottled up north with no signs of coming this way. Gary could tell you 100″ of snow and you’d believe him. Take off you snowglasses and see the pattern. Lol you need to move to Canada.
Dale lets just what and see what happens and then we can say what we wont to say lol. I think the Snow Gods are going to wake up soon so get ready for a exciting ride. My predictions on snow is 22 to 27.
Fatal Flaw- assuming that’s the only factor in producing snow. Lol calm down lil buddy.
Arctic air makes it easier to snow. Cold air holds less moisture…kinda thought you would know that.
If cold air holds less moisture, then Arctic Air would hold less than that.
The thick frost this morning might be as close as we get to snow cover this winter.
We’re going to challenge the all time record low snowfall of 3.9 inches.
There’s a better chance at a heat advisory this winter then a snow advisory.
I’ll check back in after I clean the pool, mow the grass, and water the ‘still alive” flowers…….IN DECEMBER!!!
Lol @ mm. I don’t think we will challenge the 3.9 record. I’m thinking 17 in this yr. I’m workin in Minn this week where it was 43 today!
MMike I don’t know why you keep saying we’re going to challenge of 3.9 inches of snow this year you don’t know that we don’t know that.
I am……why do you say that?
What comments are you talking about? I’m just messing around with it being so warm. I want it to snow a bunch, it’s just a very warm pattern. I know it can change around here quickly.
I don’t think my comments are suggesting I’m having a bad month…LOL. Your not picking up on my sarcastic approach.
Joe I’m glad somebody else was thinking the same thing. I was thinking the same thing.
Let’s all be glad that it’s going to be an exciting winter better than it was last year.
Not trying to be disrespectful everyone has their own opinions.
Thank you for the detailed information Gary. Yesterday you posted a GFS link for 12-16. Can you post that same map everyday so we can all see how wishy washy the models can be from day to day?
After disappearing yesterday, the storm is showing up again…though not as strong as yesterday.
Is the GFS still showing snow for next week or are we back to rain?
Latest GFS barely has any moisture over the next 10 days. Warm and boring….
The latest GFS had everything too far east. Throw it out!!!! Remember, we have the LRC. It will be a bit farther west. This morning’s model was close, but still not quite right.
Thanks for checking. I think we may hit maybe 10 inches of snow for the winter if we are lucky.
The latest data just came in and it has a more realistic snowstorm near KC. The pattern predicted fits the new LRC like a glove, but it doesn’t mean it will set up just right. At this moment a 1 to 3 inch snowstorm seems most likely around the 16th. Let’s see how it sets up.
Thank you Gary for responding and Thank you Craig for posting the link. Enjoy the fantastic weather today.
I am experiencing an IE crash every time I try to use the 12-week forecast for my ZIP code. Anyone else experiencing that?
YES, I have had the same problem. I mentioned it to Gary L and he said get lost. I’m watching the Chiefs game right now.
Gary you was talking about we would go through the next 30 to 35 day’s about the storm y part of the pattern. I was wondering can you or do you no when the storm Systems might hit or what date and day’s? Thanks.
I could be wrong, but I think Gary’s waiting to verify the cycle length before he goes into any detail on this next 30-day stretch.
We will go through the 30 day stretch with the four to five big western storm systems. So, yes, I am expecting and forecasting it to get quite stormy, but will it be cold enough to snow? We really need the pattern to block up just a bit.
For the snowflake contest to end 1″ of snow has to accumulate – correct?
I can see us having a situation with as much warm air as we’ve had and us being near 70 this week were even if 4″ of snow falls, we may not have 1″ accumulate unless it comes down real hard. Especially when we fail to have any Arctic air setting up shop.