This entry was posted in Utopia and tagged Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Future, Futurists, Nassim Taleb, Philip Tetlock, Philosophy, The Good Judgement Project.
Have you heard of the Delphi method for forecasting?
It seems somewhat like a structured technique to accomplish some of the rules you list above.
Supposedly their results have been quite good though it’s early days.
I am highly skeptical though of any predictions that are anything more than even a couple of years out. There are far too many potential black swans for that to be possible and too many interconnections we can not see. We just need to prepare for flexible response to a variety of alternative futures.