Yes, for now. Once Starship stats high altitude tests that gets a LOT harder.
What functionality does the Orion provide over Dragon/Starliner?
I know dragon is half the weight, I just dont know what the Orion does that is worth the extra weight.
If they used dragon and the ESA service module, would the falcon heavy have enough thrust, with the extra 10% with the block 5.
A full service module (propulsion, consumables stores, more batteries etc.) Not that SpaceX couldn't build one on a pallet to fit inside the Trunk and add lines to the Dragon Claw umbilical. That and some high density polyethylene radiation shielding. Yes, HDPE is a rather good shield. Extra points if you add about 5% elemental boron to shield neutrons.
Mission life with a crew aboard and a bit more radiation shielding. See above.
FH could launch a Crew Dragon and crew on a lunar free return trajectory, a loop-around, and not have mission life issues. Maybe add some HDPE for shielding, but it's not that heavy. This would have been the Grey Moon mission which was replaced by #blueMoon using Starship.
All of the above, which SpaceX won't need to bother with at all since Starship is able to carry 100 people + a modest 100 metric tonnes of cargo to Mars ... so figure another 50 metric tonnes of mass saved for the moon (since they won't have to carry all of the extra consumables for the long Martian mission).
More than doable for a Lunar mission on Starship. That's why Crew Dragon won't need to do it. It's a mission slated for Starship; in fact, already paid for. One of the first ones will be doing a once-around.
Orion is not needed in any context. At the time it was ordered, yes. Now, no.
Crew/Cargo Dragon may end up being used for the Gateway station under CLPS etc., But Starship would be insane for that mission.
First, it's several times larger than the Gateway, making the optics look bad for NASA.
Second, who would be docked to who? Again, way too large for the mission.
Potential mission managers and line engineers see the handwriting on the wall long before upper management suits, and with the pics & hops at Boca Chica Twitter has cranked up the volume to 11.
The Office of Management and Budget is prepping a budget amendment for submission to Congress - appropriations for "Moon 2024."