Clinton vs. Trump Popular Vote: Are There Still Uncounted Ballots?
There are millions of ballots that haven’t been counted yet from the 2016 presidential election.
The New York Times estimated on November 12 that there are 7 million uncounted ballots in the country.
The uncounted votes aren’t going to change the final outcome of the election (they’re not clustered in swing states) but, because millions are in the blue state of California, they could increase Hillary Clinton’s popular vote totals to historic dimensions. Around the country, various state races and issues – such as marijuana legalization propositions and the North Carolina governor’s race – could be affected. Clinton could come closer to Barack Obama’s overall 2012 popular vote total.
On November 10, two days after the election, The Los Angeles Times reported that California still had not counted 4 million ballots, a number expected to grow.
Donald Trump’s large lead in the Electoral College (he leads 290 to 228) reduces the chances of post-election ballot skirmishes.
That’s a difference of 630,877 votes.
(See the end of this article for more historic popular vote totals).
When all ballots are counted, says The New York Times, she’s likely to lead the popular vote by 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. Despite the popular vote edge, the Times argued that Democrats need to find a way to appeal to Midwestern white working class voters who split for Trump, giving him an Electoral College victory that was not deep (the margins were small in multiple key states) but was wide.
The Huffington Post argues that high popular vote tallies reduce a Donald Trump mandate and fuel efforts to get rid of the Electoral College, which was designed so that a few populous areas don’t determine every election but, rather, that candidates must compete for the hearts of minds of Americans in every state. Millions of people have signed a petition calling on electors to switch to Hillary Clinton when the Electoral College votes in December, even if their states bind them to Trump. This is called the “Faithless Elector” scenario, although it’s highly unlikely.
AL.com says four other candidates in American history have won the popular vote but not the presidency: Gore; Andrew Jackson in 1824; Samuel Tilden in 1876; and Grover Cleveland in 1888.
See the most recent unprocessed ballot report from the California Secretary of State.
Absentee ballots just have to be postmarked by election day in California; they don’t have to be received by that day to still be counted. Provisional ballots also needed counting. Since Hillary Clinton had a 29% lead over Donald Trump in California, the uncounted ballots would likely add to her popular vote total, said The Los Angeles Times. Vote tallies for California show Clinton with 5,931,283 votes in California compared to 3,184,721 for Donald Trump.
Uncounted ballots won’t change the presidency, but they could affect some statewide ballot measures and local races. As of November 10, Arizona still had over 600,000 uncounted ballots (which may be one reason the Associated Press waited until that day to call the state for Trump.) That could affect the ballot measure to legalize marijuana, which was losing by 4 percentage points.
The Atlantic wrote a lengthy article repudiating the below chart by arguing that Clinton’s turnout was sure to grow as the remaining ballots are counted.
The Atlantic said most were cast in California, Washington, and New York, meaning the effect of uncounted ballots will likely be to boost Clinton’s lead in the popular vote, not alter the Electoral College outcome that gave Trump the presidency.
In North Carolina, the day after election day, there were 26,600 provisional ballots left to count, not enough to switch the presidential results, but enough to affect a tight governor’s race, said the Associated Press. The Republican Gov. Pat McCrory was behind Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper by about 5,000 votes, said the AP. Cooper declared victory, but Republicans argue it’s premature and have filed a complaint demanding a recount of ballots after it was revealed that 90,000 were counted by hand.
In Utah, which Trump won easily, there remained 153,000 uncounted ballots as of the evening after the election.
Maine was still processing 4,500 absentee ballots after the election. Ballot measures on marijuana legalization and educational tax revenue remained undecided a result, said The Press Herald.
In Michigan, which Trump won by only about 13,000 votes, the Secretary of State’s office told Heavy all ballots have been counted. The results will now go through a canvassing process. The AP has not yet called Michigan for Trump because of the tight margin.
You can see electoral vote and popular vote data for more historic elections here.
How Many Popular Votes Did Clinton & Trump Win in Each State?
Hillary Clinton leads the popular vote against Donald Trump, and there were millions of uncounted ballots after election day, with many in California. Trump won the electoral college.