Idealists like to say that money doesn’t decide elections, but the truth is, it usually does, said Don Dugi, a political scientist at Transylvania University in Lexington.
This isn’t news to Sellus Wilder, a Frankfort Democrat clobbered in this year’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary by millionaire Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who was much better-financed. Wilder is now managing Kemper’s 6th District House campaign.
Money allows a candidate to hire campaign staff to reach voters on a personal basis across a large area, and it lets her promote her ideas through broadcast and digital advertising and social media, he said.
“And it’s the metric by which you’re deemed credible, or not, by everyone else — the news media, the party, other politicians, the donors. If you have some money, it’s easier to be taken seriously so that you can raise more money. But the reverse also is true if you don’t have very much,” Wilder said.
For all of the public debate over Congress — and its pitiful 13 percent job-approval rating as of last month — Kentuckians don’t show a great deal of interest in who speaks for them in the House of Representatives.
Only 44 percent of the state’s registered voters cast a ballot in a House race during the 2014 general election, when all six seats were contested, however weakly. Every incumbent was re-elected to another two-year term, including some, like Rogers and Ed Whitfield, R-Hopkinsville, who have spent decades in Washington.
Few vigorous House races are expected anytime soon. For one thing, the two-party system has eroded. Faced with Kentucky’s status as a deeply conservative red state, Democrats essentially have surrendered the congressional delegation, said Tres Watson, spokesman for the Kentucky Republican Party.
The focus of the Kentucky Democratic Party on Nov. 8 will be preserving the narrow Democratic majority in the state House of Representatives, a crucial check on the power of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, said party spokesman Daniel Lowry. It’s not clear what help, if any, the party will be able to offer its congressional candidates who face an uphill climb, Lowry said.
However, in 2014, the Kentucky Democratic Party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington did not provide much assistance to Elisabeth Jensen, the Democrat challenging Barr that year. Barr outspent Jensen by $3-to-$1 and beat her by 20 points.
Once they are entrenched in Washington, congressmen enjoy a huge fundraising advantage that discourages most people from challenging them. Wealthy donors with an interest in favorable legislation and government spending line up to write them checks “because they’re a sure thing and a known quantity,” Dugi said.
For example, Barr, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, collects hundreds of thousands of dollars from banks, payday lenders, investment firms and other businesses affected by his work. Roughly two-thirds of Barr’s campaign money so far this election cycle comes from outside Kentucky, including more than $600,000 from lobbyist-rich Washington and its suburbs.
Rogers, first elected in 1980, enjoys even greater fundraising clout as chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, which decides how the government spends its money. Rogers’ campaigns have raised nearly $11 million over the last 25 years, although he seldom faces much opposition in his Southeastern Kentucky district.
Voters choose the names they recognize and feel good about, Dugi said.
“When you’ve got someone like Hal Rogers, who has been there forever and who has brought so much pork back home … the chances of anyone coming in and beating him are slim to none. You’re not even really holding elections anymore,” Dugi said.