HIGOS turned NE near Macau after skirting the Guangdong coast earlier yesterday (10/05). At 23 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) NNW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will continue to move NE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
HIGOS is expected to dissipate as it goes further inland.
Winds and rain subsided as HIGOS's rain bands are now east of Hong Kong. As HIGOS's intensity decreases, prevailing wind direction will turn from southwest to northeast and HIGOS's effect will fade away.
This is the final bulletin on HIGOS.
HIGOS turned eastward after landfall last night, and from RADAR/satallite images its rain/cloud bands consolidated early today. As it is coming close to Hong Kong bulletins are issued again for this system. At 17 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 90 km (50 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will continue to move NE to ENE along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
HIGOS is expected to maintain strength until it eventually hits inland and weakens.
Winds equivalent to that during the issuance of the Number 3 Strong Wind Signal is currently observed in Hong Kong. It is expected strong winds from the south or southwest will blow in Hong Kong, with a chance of observing cyclonic winds if HIGOS hits Hong Kong. Occasional heavy rain is possible from HIGOS's rainbands. Winds should subside after passage of HIGOS later tonight.
HIGOS made its second landfall near Wuchuan in western Guangdong at 17 HKT today. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 350 km (190 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will turn to NE as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
HIGOS will weaken rapidly as it moves inland, and dissipation is expected before t+24.
Moderate to fresh south to southeasterly winds will be observed in the next two days, together with occasional heavy rain.
HIGOS made its first landfall at eastern Hainan last night and will soon make landfall again at western Guangdong. It has also weakened into a tropical depression. At 14 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 360 km (190 NM) WSW of Hong Kong.
HIGOS will turn to NE after landfall as it moves along the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
HIGOS will weaken rapidly as it moves inland, and dissipation is expected before t+36.
Fresh southeasterly winds will be observed in the next two days, together with occasional heavy rain.
HIGOS has gradually slowed down and is now travelling north along eastern Hainan. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 490 km (270 NM) SW of Hong Kong.
A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards eastern Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.
HIGOS still failed to intensify in good ambient environment. It is expected that HIGOS will gradually weaken as it makes landfall at Hainan and weaken rapidly after landfall.
HIGOS's threat is reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain. The wind speed observed in Hong Kong depends critically on whether HIGOS will make landfall at Hainan and the time of recurving to the northeast.
According to the forecast track, HIGOS will have weakened into an area of low pressure before its CPA to Hong Kong on Monday.
HIGOS's speed remained rather high and is now edging closer to Hainan Island. At 14 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 550 km (300 NM) SW of Hong Kong.
A pressure col is developed as the trough erodes the ridge north of HIGOS. It is expected that HIGOS will move north towards Hainan and western Guangdong before recurving northeast inland.
HIGOS's threat is greatly reduced as it travels more west than expected. However, fresh (strong in offshore waters and on high grounds) southeasterly winds turning clockwise to southwesterlies should still be observed in the next three days together with occasional heavy rain.
HIGOS travelled west into the South China Sea early today. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 680 km (370 NM) S of Hong Kong. The Number 1 Standby Signal was issued at 19:30 HKT today.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is about to be weakened by a passing mid-latitude trough. This should induce a weakness for HIGOS to complete its recurvature and its forward speed should decrease soon. After recurvature HIGOS is expected to land somewhere in Guangdong and will re-accelerate as it escapes from the pressure col.
Convections bursted around the storm which has led to its increasing coverage in terms of cloud bands but HIGOS still failed to effectively wrap the clouds around its centre. Shear in the South China Sea continues to stay at low levels and sea temperatures are quite favorable for storm development. Together with better divergence associated with the arriving trough, HIGOS should be able to intensify in the next 48 hours. Intrusion of dry air should have a negative impact on HIGO's intensity as it nears the Guangdong coast.
From the current forecast track, HIGOS is expected to bring strong winds to Hong Kong during the weekend. However, as landfalling positions are much more difficult to predict in recurvature scenarios, it is not yet possible to tell the exact change in wind direction during the approach of HIGOS. Please refer to official bulletins for the latest forecast tracks.
As forecast speeds are lowered due to the increased possibility for HIGOS to position in a pressure col, time for CPA has delayed by almost a day. According to the forecast track, HIGOS will be closest to Hong Kong in the night time on 2008/10/05 (Sun). Wind speed at CPA is estimated to be about 55 knots (100 km/h) in 1-min standard and 50 knots (95 km/h) in 10-min standard.
HIGOS has weakened to a marginal tropical storm due to land interaction. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 30 km (20 NM) WSW of Manila.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 24 to 36 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.
HIGOS is expected to enter the South China Sea soon. As wind shear has decreased significantly and sea surface temperatures remain good, HIGOS should be able to intensify at climatological rate from t+12 to t+60. Improved outflow may be possible as the trough arrives.
21W was named HIGOS by the JMA today and has made landfall at the Philippines. At 20 HKT, HIGOS was centred about 340 km (180 NM) ESE of Manila.
The subtropical ridge north of HIGOS is expected to bring WNW movement in the next 48 hours. A mid-latitude trough should arrive at that time to weaken the ridge so that a recurvature scenario could be observed with the storm making landfall in Guangdong.
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 36 hours as HIGOS moves across the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 36 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it reaches open waters.
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours. However, as HIGOS is expected to edge closer to Guangdong, there is a chance that the weather will deteriorate later this week.
Disturbance 99W intensified into a tropical depression (21W) this afternoon and was soon upgraded to tropical storm status. At 20 HKT, 21W was centred about 1130 km (610 NM) SE of Manila.
A subtropical ridge is anchored north of 21W. It is expected that 21W will travel W then gradually turning poleward in the next 72 hours as it moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The motion is highly dependant on the extent that the ridge extends westwards after JANGMI moves further northeastward.
Potential for intensification remains rather limited in the next 72 hours as 21W moves to the Philippines. According to the present track, 21W will move into the South China Sea in 72 hours' time, and it may intensify further as it leaves Philippines.