The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised Thailand’s economic growth forecast this year by 0.5% from a previous forecast in April to 4.5%, while cutting Asean’s economic growth forecast to 5.1% from previously 5.2%. ADB on Wednesday launched its “Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update: Maintaining Stability Amid Heightened Uncertainty”.
ADB also raised its forecast of Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2019 to 4.3% from previously 4.1%, while keeping the forecast of Asean’s GDP for 2019 unchanged at 5.2%.
Thailand’s stronger growths in export, private consumption and infrastructure development projects were among key factors leading ADB to raise the economic outlook for Thailand this year and next year.
The export alone is now forecast to grow by 10% in the year to come, said ADB.
Private consumption was forecast to grow 4.0% this year and 4.5% next year, thanks to a rise in income generation and employment rates, said ADB.
Investment in the private sector in the last half of this year will increase, while investment in the public sector is projected to rise in only a short term while the government is injecting funds into its infrastructure development projects, said ADB.
ADB, however, warned that expansion in the farming sector in the last half of this year tends to drop from the first half of the year due to the impact of abundant rainfall in August.
Thailand was also cautioned about the possibility of a capital outflow as a result of the continual US-China trade war as international investors are looking for higher interest rates, ADB.