The highly anticipated employment data was weaker than expected this morning. As a result, Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) prices jumped swiftly and erased much of yesterday's losses. The economy only added 162,000 jobs (well below the consensus of 180,000 jobs predicted). Unemployment figures have dropped to 7.4%.
The following information is current as of Friday 8-2-2013 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Thursday with a SIGNIFICANT WORSENING to pricing. Thursday's SIGNIFICANT WORSENING netted a change of 68 basis points (bps).
Personal consup real: Actual 0.1%, Last 0.2%, Revised 0.1%.
Personal income: Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.4%, Last 0.5%, Revised 0.4%.
Consumption adjusted: Actual 0.5%, Consensus 0.5%, Last 0.3%, revised 0.2%.
Core PCE price index mm: Actual 0.2%, Consensus 0.1%, Last 0.1%.
Core PCE price index yy: Actual 1.2%, Last 1.1%, revised 1.2%.
PCE price index mm: Actual 0.4%, Last 0.1%.
PCE price index yy: Actual 1.3%, Last 1.0%, Revised 1.1%.
Non-farm: Actual 162k, Consensus 184k, Last 195k, Revised 188k.
Private: Actual 161k, Consensus 189k, Last 202k, Revised 196k.
Manufacturing: Actual 6k, Consensus 1k, Last -6k, Revised 3k.
Government: Actual 1k, Last -7k, Revised -8k.
Unemployment rate: Actual 7.4%, Consensus 7.5%, Last 7.6k.
Average earnings: Actual -0.1%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.4%.
Average work hours: Actual 34.4h, Consensus 34.5h, Last 34.5h.
6:45: ISM New York Index for Jul: Last 578.1.
Factory orders: Consensus 2.3%, last 2.1%.
7:30: ECRI weekly index: Last 131.3.
Treasuries erased losses after a Labor Department report showed the economy added fewer jobs than forecast in July, damping speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of bond purchases next month.
No Jobs=No Growth. We saw both of those fact manifest in this weeks news releases. No Growth=deflation concerns. Deflation=LOW RATES.
However, for now...we remain range bound. While it is a wild, volitile and emotional range, it is still range. Today we test the top and hopely, we dont free fall back to the bottom, as we have during the last three tests.
Today would be a likely day to break out, but I cant promise that. This has been one of the toughest markets to trade in my 30 year history.