Will this lockout doom the NBA season?
The NBA lockout is getting very serious. They just canceled 43 pre-season games and training camps will be delayed. There does not seem to be any progress or sense of urgency to salvage the season, yet. Fans of course have the NCAA,but this could really do some long term damage to the league. Your thoughts?
the reality is that I doubt seriously we'll even have an nba season this year. Let alone an entire one for next season at that. Based on what I heard thus far, the owners are willing to lose an entire season if it means forcing the players to give into all their demands, and they're unwilling to renegotiate this position. The players don't trust the owners at all, when they claim they've lost money over the years, and many of the big name players are seeking other option by playing over seas (i.e. Kobe Bryant signing to play for Italy recently). This along with the fact that none of the big name players (according to ESPN) have shown up to these meetings between the Union and NBA only proves that there's little progress being done. Personally, I think what's going to happen is this, they'll cancel the entire nba season this year. Then around the 2012-2013 season, they'll probably play only half a season with mostly replacement players, as I have a feeling that the players won't be easily swaded. Therefore, the nba will have to rebuild it's image with replacement players for a while, and once they do, then you'll see the nba players that went to play over seas come back to play here. At least, that's how I see this going down, as I doubt seriously either side is going to back down easily based on what ESPN, Yahoo and many other sites are suggesting.
They will wreck the league if they cancel the season. I know guys who still won't watch baseball because of the '94 strike.
No kidding. I think they will too, but I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens. Personally, I don't care what anyone here says, as I doubt there will be an nba season this year. If there is, then I'll be happy to be proven wrong.
Common sense was telling me something along these lines as well when I was thinking about the profound disparity in revenue and overall competitiveness between small market teams compared to large market teams.
However, I am now going to deviate from that theory by stating that I think that negotiations are closer than any side is letting on. By this theory, of course all sides will (and have) proclaim(ed) doom and gloom for the purpose of leverage. The NBA owners have played it out like they will settle for no less than a hard salary cap. I will call their bluff now that the first part of the season is in jeopardy. I think that if these owners were losing as much money as they claim, then they would have just sold their franchises. On the other hand, the players have used playing overseas as a leverage tool. And why not? They had nothing to lose by doing so since (outside of China) players could leave such teams if the NBA has a season. They have also shown up to play in community leagues, whereby the attendance and following of such games have reminded people that the NBA is a STAR-PLAYER - driven league.
Although I'm not sure the NBA season will start on time, I now believe there will be a season. In the past, the players have greatly benefited from past CBAs FAR more than in any of the other major pro sports in America. This time around the owners wanted to pull an entire 180 but I don't think it will happen that way. Not all in one contract. I believe both sides will find a middle ground sooner than people are led to believe. Usually these talks start out greedy from both sides, but when the time comes that missing games becomes a near reality then that usually scares both sides into becoming more realistic.
Well you're far more optimistic than I am, as I stand by what I said. Granted, I could be wrong in my theory as well, but after hearing how the players don't trust anything that the owners are saying (even AFTER READING tax documents to confirm money losses), and how the big name stars aren't attending negotiations, to how there was allegedly several work stoppage in the nineties, and the only reason there wasn't more lockouts back then was because owners were scared of hurting the league's marketability during the Jordan Era.
Sure, the owners will lose some money by cancelling an entire season obviously, but we have to remember we're talking about multi-billionaire owners that do own other businesses outside of basketball, so it's not like they'll be hurting for cash like most of the players. Plus, they can always rent out their stadium to various concert events to help raise some revenue to make up for their losses, so it won't affect them as much as you think.
Don't get me wrong, I hope there is a season this year, as it would be a shame for the nba to lose it's newfound audience. However, after watching how the negotiations have gone down, to seeing how most players have this estranged sense of ENTITLEMENT over the past few years, this only fuels my theory further into believing that neither side is going to back down this time in fear of losing a season. Say what you want, but this is my two cents.
And great points once again. I thought the same way right after the NBA season ended and on into the middle of September. More specifically I believed the owners had all the leverage, especially since I am from Minnesota where the T-Wolves practically give away tickets every year and still are unable to draw any kind of fellowship from fans, sponsors, or lucrative TV contracts. I think I see how it works. It is pretty hopeless in this market compared to the L.A. Lakers, for example, who make a boatload of revenue regardless of how far they have dipped into paying the luxury tax and how far they have made it into the playoffs. REGARDLESS, these owners cannot expect miracles and they know and ACCEPT where they fall into their tier of profitability or lack thereof. I think most of the owners who are losing money are not in this particular business to make money directly from their team. They already have their billions and I think such owners merely enjoy the perks of owning NBA team and and getting their name out there even more.
As for the point of there having been less lockouts in the past because of the league's fear of hurting their marketing during the Jordan era, I look at the CBA that was negotiated after Jordan retired from the Bulls; the same CBA that expired after this past season. Of course the league missed half of the season, but after Jordan retired there was definitely a HUGE lack in marketable talent in the NBA at that time BUT STILL the PLAYERS walked away with a killing from the negotiations with a soft cap and 57% of all basketball revenue. This was even before Kobe Bryant exploded into an international superstar. Heck, Tim Duncan ended up leading the Spurs to the title that first half season after the lockout, and we know he has not proven to be the most marketable player during his time. The only other big marketable star at that time when negotiations were going on was ShaQ.
Think about it now, the NBA markets its stars better than any other sport. The following and marketability for Kobe, LeBron, Durant, Wade, Howard, Dirk, Rose, CP3, Melo, and the Celtic Big 4 Vastly exceeds that of anything the NBA players Association had going for it back after Jordan retired during the '98-'99 lockout. Even the marketing of fresh talent such as Blake Griffin and Kevin Love (even as a small market player on a bad team) gains huge interest amongst NBA followers.
The impact of missing games and/or an entire season in pro sports has already been spoken of on these forums. Now is the time negotiations should fire up. Heck, from what I gather the two sides started off $9billion apart in revenue sharing and are now down to $2billion apart. The hard part will be trying to find something that works best for both sides in terms of a middle ground between a hard and soft salary cap. We'll see what happens. I look for things to heat up in the next two weeks. If they can't salvage the start of the season on time, then I predict a lull in the negotiations until the entire season is in serious jeopardy when I think things will ultimately be resolved if they are not already prior to that, which I definitely believe they can be.
Well don't shoot the messenger, as I was merely stating facts that I heard ESPN and Yahoo sports report, so please don't make this into a debate over how much more marketable some of today's key players of today are versus the Jordan era, as I'm not interested. Besides, we'll have to wait and see. Plus, it's just an opinion that I have based on what I've read and heard thus far, so you shouldn't take it so seriously my good chum.
Edit: Besides, I never said definitely that this was going to happen, as I was just throwing my opinion out there. Plus, I even said that I COULD be wrong, and I hope that I am. However, this is me merely stating an opinion, and nothing more based on facts that were reported on various sources.
Whoa, Steven, don't take my comments so seriously bud. That was not my intention. I was just carrying on a discussion based almost solely upon opinions from our knowledge of the NBA. I was not trying to suggest my opinions are more valid than yours. They are not. In fact, I agree with many of your opinions on this issue and probably 95% of all of your opinions on anything related to the NBA. These sports forums are somewhat slow right now, so I was merely trying to create a discussion, looking at things from the other side. Looking back at it now, I see my capital letters may have made you think otherwise. I apologize. The fact is that I am passionate about the NBA, just as I know you are, and when postings tend to get a little longer it can just be easier to use caps to emphasize some of the main points in a long posting. My bad there. Just a passionate NBA fan here who likes to create interesting discussion on basketball and perhaps help others to see things from a different perspective than they had previously thought of. I hope you understand.
Oh okay. Sorry, I misread your post. I guess this is why I shouldn't go into forums late at night while writing a hub simultaneously. Nah, I wasn't offended by what you said, but merely misread you. After reading your posts again, I can see what you're getting at though. It could be likely that the NBA owners are trying to avoid bad publicity again by keeping the negotiations closer to the chest as you said, so you might have a point there. In fact, that probably would explain why FIBA basketball isn't being mentioned that much for some reason. Anyway, I'm sorry for misreading your posts though.
during the strike in 98-99 the nba lost almost 50% of viewers and only in the past 4-5yrs have 1/2 of those 50% come back. So if it of tv for 1-2 years will it comeback?????? wait the people who run the wnba r behind this I just know it!
I'm pretty sure the NBA owns the WNBA too.
I hope so! Maybe it will wake up some agents and players and perhaps lower the level of greed.
Besides the networks may have to come up with something watchable for a change.
One of the huge problems the league has is that many small market teams are losing money. High salaries and small markets are a bad financial recipe. There are just too many teams. I mean Oklahoma City has an NBA team. Yes, they are good and made the playoffs, but OKC ?
As an update to my post a few days ago, it sounds as though after Tuesday's meeting between the owners and players that the owners have softened their stance in regard to a hard salary cap. I'd say that means some progress is being made and I will continue to believe that a resolution is closer than most are led to believe.
Well it looks like your assessment might be right after all. I hope this means we'll get an nba season then, as it would be a shame for the nba to lose it's fans after having such a great season in terms of ratings last season.
1 - NBA Insider Chris Sheridan stated on Thursday that he would be "surprised" if there was not a deal in place by Tuesday. His reasons for such I find to be believable as I listened to him on ESPN radio. He also has a website with a lot of basketball news. I see him, Ken Berger, and Adrian Wojnarowski as the most reputable sources for inside NBA news.
2 - ESPN's NBA insider Marc Stein reported that the NBA season will be canceled by David Stern if the two sides are not close to a deal by the end of the weekend. I think a lot of people can see through this and what the commish is trying to do here. Most do no believe the season will actually be canceled until January. Stern's stance is that the owners offers will only get worse after this weekend. I think I heard that a few weeks after the postseason ended, so that repetitive negotiating tactic is old by now.
The way I see it is that this thing is close. In the past the players have essentially "owned" the owners. They received 57% of all basketball revenue, they had 100x more cap flexibility than the NFL, for example. With where negotiations are reportedly at in this moment, it seems as if things are nearly 50/50 on all issues. These sides are close to the middle ground on everything. The large concessions have been made by the players as they have collectively given up $billions over the next 6-10 years (whichever this next CBA will be for), as they really needed to be for this to work from the start. From this point on, if things don't work out it would be due to a major greed factor by the owners, in which case those owners should not even own a professional sports team because the reality is that it is their poor business decisions that put them in the red more than it is the CBA.
I am an avid high school and college basketball fan. I played college basketball way back when and used to really like the NBA. But that was before free agency, when a player and a franchise were pretty much connected for an entire career. Russell, Sam and KC Jones, Heisohn, Cousy, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, McHale, etc. were my Celtic guys while key rival teams had rosters that were filled with names that were easily associated with their franchises. So, with today's NBA, I don't get nearly as excited as I did 25 or more years ago. The lockout won't affect me at all until May and June when there are no playoffs to get excited about.
It's simple economics. The owners are barely making money, and some of them are likely losing money. The players are making millions, but they can make just as much and sometimes even more if they play overseas. The NBA is no longer necessarily the top market for professional basketball players. In addition to contracts signed overseas, players can expand their worldwide exposure and make millions more from marketing. Put the pieces together and I think it means this NBA season is in serious trouble.
I agree with DB Cooper. The NBA is not the top market for professional basketball and this lockout, if it goes through 75% of the season will further prove in ever way that other sports leagues such as hockey and baseball can take over largely because of fanatics and fan base endorsements. Look at the Euro league such as Italy who just signed a deal with Kobe Bryant to play 4 weeks for 3 million. Ludicrous? How about them trying for Andrea Bargniani now and others. I also think that wherever big names go in terms of leagues influences the leagues in markets as well. This lockout is inevitable and holds everything that the NBA has in its possession and can lose it all if it takes longer. Only time will tell.
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