در ادبیات کارآفرینی به تعصبات شناختی توجه ویژه‌ای شده است، اما بیشتر این پژوهش‌ها نقش ادراک از خطر را درنظر نگرفته‌اند. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر اعتمادبه‌نفس بیش‌ازحد و خوش‌بینی بر تصمیم به شروع فعالیت‌های نوآورانه و تشریح نقش میانجی ادراک از خطر است. این پژوهش براساس هدف از نوع تحقیقات کاربردی و از نظر نحوة گردآوری داده‌ها از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی- همبستگی است. جامعة آماری تحقیق، کارآفرینان مراکز رشد مستقر در دانشگاه‌ها هستند. با مراجعه به فهرست شرکت‌های فعال در مراکز رشد دانشگاه‌ها، 405 کارآفرین شناسایی شدند که براساس فرمول کوکران برای حجم جامعة محدود، 200 نمونه انتخاب شد. این نمونه‌ها براساس روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌ای و با استفاده از روش تسهیم به نسبت برای هر دانشگاه انتخاب شدند. برای گردآوری داده‌ها از پرسشنامه استفاده شد و روایی براساس تأیید عاملی تأییدی و پایایی با استفاده از ضرایب آلفای کرونباخ آزمون شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد اعتمادبه‌نفس بیش‌ازحد و خوش‌بینی بر تصمیم به شروع فعالیت‌های نوآورانه تأثیر مستقیم و مثبت دارد. همچنین، این دو تعصب شناختی با کاهش ادراک از خطر، به‌‌صورت غیرمستقیم به فعالیت‌های نوآورانه کمک می‌کنند.
Cognitive biases have received special attention within the entrepreneurship literature. Yet, the majority of these studies have neglected the role of risk perceptions. This paper aims to explore the affect of overconfidence and optimism on decision to start innovative activities and to examine the mediating role of risk perception. The research is applied and done based on descriptive-correlative method. Statistical population is included of 405 entrepreneurs that are activated in university incubators. Analyses were conducted using structural equation model (SEM) on a sample of 200 entrepreneurs. Samples are selected based on stratified method and proportional allocation. Data gathered by questionnaire and validity and reliability tested by respectively, conformity factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha. The results show that overconfidence and optimism positively direct influences decision to start innovative and direct influences of overconfidence is higher than optimism. Also, the results revealed that these cognitive biases contribute to innovative activities by decreasing risk perception.
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