## Wednesday, 5 December 2012

### Neural Net Market Classifier to Replace Bayesian Market Classifier

I have now completed the cross validation test I wanted to run, which compares my current Bayesian classifier with the recently retrained "reserve neural net," the results of which are shown in the code box below. The test consists of 50,000 random iterations of my usual "ideal" 5 market types with the market classifications from both of the above classifiers being compared with the actual, known market type. There are 2 points of comparison in each iteration: the last price bar in the sequence, identified as "End," and a randomly picked price bar from the 4 immediately preceding the last bar, identified as "Random."
``````Number of times to loop: 50000
Elapsed time is 1804.46 seconds.

Random NN
Complete Accuracy percentage: 50.354000

"Acceptable" Mis-classifications percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = unr: 1.288000
Predicted = unr & actual = uwr: 6.950000
Predicted = dwr & actual = dnr: 1.268000
Predicted = dnr & actual = dwr: 6.668000
Predicted = uwr & actual = cyc: 3.750000
Predicted = dwr & actual = cyc: 6.668000
Predicted = cyc & actual = uwr: 2.242000
Predicted = cyc & actual = dwr: 2.032000

Dubious, difficult to trade mis-classification percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = dwr: 2.140000
Predicted = unr & actual = dwr: 2.140000
Predicted = dwr & actual = uwr: 2.500000
Predicted = dnr & actual = uwr: 2.500000

Completely wrong classifications percentages
Predicted = unr & actual = dnr: 0.838000
Predicted = dnr & actual = unr: 0.716000

End NN
Complete Accuracy percentage: 48.280000

"Acceptable" Mis-classifications percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = unr: 1.248000
Predicted = unr & actual = uwr: 7.630000
Predicted = dwr & actual = dnr: 0.990000
Predicted = dnr & actual = dwr: 7.392000
Predicted = uwr & actual = cyc: 3.634000
Predicted = dwr & actual = cyc: 7.392000
Predicted = cyc & actual = uwr: 1.974000
Predicted = cyc & actual = dwr: 1.718000

Dubious, difficult to trade mis-classification percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = dwr: 2.170000
Predicted = unr & actual = dwr: 2.170000
Predicted = dwr & actual = uwr: 2.578000
Predicted = dnr & actual = uwr: 2.578000

Completely wrong classifications percentages
Predicted = unr & actual = dnr: 1.050000
Predicted = dnr & actual = unr: 0.886000

Random Bayes
Complete Accuracy percentage: 19.450000

"Acceptable" Mis-classifications percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = unr: 7.554000
Predicted = unr & actual = uwr: 2.902000
Predicted = dwr & actual = dnr: 7.488000
Predicted = dnr & actual = dwr: 2.712000
Predicted = uwr & actual = cyc: 5.278000
Predicted = dwr & actual = cyc: 2.712000
Predicted = cyc & actual = uwr: 0.000000
Predicted = cyc & actual = dwr: 0.000000

Dubious, difficult to trade mis-classification percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = dwr: 5.730000
Predicted = unr & actual = dwr: 5.730000
Predicted = dwr & actual = uwr: 5.642000
Predicted = dnr & actual = uwr: 5.642000

Completely wrong classifications percentages
Predicted = unr & actual = dnr: 0.162000
Predicted = dnr & actual = unr: 0.128000

End Bayes
Complete Accuracy percentage: 24.212000

"Acceptable" Mis-classifications percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = unr: 8.400000
Predicted = unr & actual = uwr: 2.236000
Predicted = dwr & actual = dnr: 7.866000
Predicted = dnr & actual = dwr: 1.960000
Predicted = uwr & actual = cyc: 6.142000
Predicted = dwr & actual = cyc: 1.960000
Predicted = cyc & actual = uwr: 0.000000
Predicted = cyc & actual = dwr: 0.000000

Dubious, difficult to trade mis-classification percentages
Predicted = uwr & actual = dwr: 5.110000
Predicted = unr & actual = dwr: 5.110000
Predicted = dwr & actual = uwr: 4.842000
Predicted = dnr & actual = uwr: 4.842000

Completely wrong classifications percentages
Predicted = unr & actual = dnr: 0.048000
Predicted = dnr & actual = unr: 0.040000
``````
A Quick Analysis
• Looking at the figures for complete accuracy it can be seen that the Bayesian classifier is not much better than randomly guessing, with 19.45% and 24.21% for "Random Bayes" and "End Bayes" respectively. The corresponding accuracy figures for the NN are 50.35% and 48.28%.
• In the "dubious, difficult to trade" mis-classification category Bayes gets approx. 22% and 20% this wrong, whilst for the NN these figures halve to approx. 9.5% and 9.5%.
• In the "acceptable" mis-classification category Bayes gets approx. 29% and 29%, with the NN being more or less the same.
Although this is not a completely rigorous test, I am satisfied that the NN has shown its superiority over the Bayesian classifier. Also, I believe that there is significant scope to improve the NN even more by adding additional features, changes in architecture and use of the Softmax unit etc. As a result, I have decided to gracefully retire the Bayesian classifier and deploy the NN classifier in its place.
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