(CNN) -- When Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu stated that the Russian troops along Ukraine's borders were only conducting "training exercises" and have no "intention to cross Ukraine's borders or to engage in any aggressive actions," Ukrainians rolled their eyes. And when President Vladimir Putin told Ukrainians "Don't believe those who terrify you with Russia, who shout that other regions will follow Crimea. We do not want Ukraine's division. ... We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign, and self-sufficient state," Ukrainians shrugged. The problem is, even if Putin and Shoigu were being sincere, Moscow has lost all credibility among most Ukrainians and the international community. After three weeks of aggressive Russian behavior and the possibility of existential annihilation, Ukrainians, like Israelis, prefer to think in terms of worst-case scenarios. After all, they blithely assumed Russia would never attack -- and then Russia seized Crimea.
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Alexander Motyl: Ukrainians don't believe Russia's assurances it will not invade
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He says people are buying guns, leaving town, packing suitcases to be ready for war
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Motyl: Ukraine is beefing up its decimated defense; sending troops, tanks to borders
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Motyl: This may be Putin's worst strategic move, alienating other small, nearby nations
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They never suspected that thousands of Russians would chant anti-Ukrainian war slogans in the streets of @placeholder.
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In each instance, @placeholder' working assumption of a friendly Russia proved dead wrong.
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In many parts of the country, @placeholder have taken to preparing little suitcases with all the necessities -- just in case they have to flee at a moment's notice.
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In the last few weeks, Ukrainian armed forces, tanks and other defensive weapons have been deployed along the country's border with @placeholder.
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While @placeholder's security may or may not be enhanced by most of these measures, the irony is that Russia's definitely will not be -- at least in the medium to long term.
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While Ukraine's security may or may not be enhanced by most of these measures, the irony is that @placeholder's definitely will not be -- at least in the medium to long term.
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Even taken together, the non-Russians will be weaker than @placeholder.
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But Putin's land grab will make all of them inclined to regard @placeholder as a potentially land-grabbing foe and to promote their own security independently of Russia and outside of any Russian-led blocs or unions.
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But Putin's land grab will make all of them inclined to regard Russia as a potentially land-grabbing foe and to promote their own security independently of @placeholder and outside of any Russian-led blocs or unions.
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When Russians wake up to the reality after the euphoria of @placeholder's annexation wears off, Putin may very well discover that his own security and stability as President are in danger.