(CNN) -- There is a growing belief among many in the West that Europe and the United States provoked President Putin into annexing Crimea. Moscow's reaction to NATO expansion and to the EU's efforts to bring Ukraine into its orbit was, it is said, inevitable. In this view, Western leaders backed Putin into a corner and, with the situation worsening in eastern Ukraine, it is time we gave him an exit plan. Interestingly, this is the prevalent view in Southeast Asia, a region not lacking a large and assertive neighbor of its own. In Singapore last week, several prominent figures told me Southeast Asia is managing better the challenge of a resurgent China than Europe is a re-assertive Russia. But this is a misleading comparison. China and Russia present entirely different propositions to their neighbors.
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There is a growing view Russia was provoked into annexing Crimea, Robin Niblett says
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This belief is prevalent in Southeast Asia, where China is asserting itself, he says
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But Niblett says China's president recognizes the logic of win-win diplomacy
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Putin's "winner takes all" approach, however, requires a strong response, he says
China
China
China
China
@placeholder is increasingly active in a range of regional multilateral institutions, and has sustained a constructive political and economic relationship with the United States, despite their competing strategic roles in the region.
Putin
Putin
Putin
@placeholder appears to see the world through a unique prism of winner takes all and loser loses everything.
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Russia
Russia
As tends to be the case with bad neighbors, @placeholder's belligerence stems from problems at home.
Russia
Russia
Russia
@placeholder's current account surplus was already projected to have disappeared this year, before the crisis over Ukraine.
Russia
Russia
Russia
Having failed with economic coercion, he is now also resorting to political and military coercion to prevent Ukraine from escaping @placeholder's economic stranglehold.
West
He blames the @placeholder for Russia's ills and wallows in victimhood.
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Russia
Russia
But he avoids reforming the economic system he created, and perceives steps towards embedding the rule of law, accountable government and more open markets around Russia's neighborhood as threats to his and @placeholder's power.
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Russia
Russia
If the choice now is between trying to bring President Putin gradually in from the cold, or containing his worst instincts towards @placeholder's European neighbors, the latter is the only rational answer.