(CNN)Why stop now? This must be the question Vladimir Putin is asking himself as he considers the latest European pleas for peace in Ukraine, to be discussed at a crisis summit in Minsk on Wednesday. Since invading and annexing Crimea almost one year ago, the Russian president has been running rings around the European Union, NATO and the Obama administration. It is not that Putin is particularly clever -- on the contrary, his behavior suggests he is paranoid, impulsive and insecure. But he has benefited from the greater weaknesses of his opponents. So as he considers his response to Europe's ideas for a new cease-fire and a "comprehensive settlement" in eastern Ukraine, what will Putin be thinking? What does he know?
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Vladimir Putin considers his response to Europe's ideas for a new cease-fire in Ukraine
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Since annexing Crimea, Putin has run rings around U.S., European leaders, says Simon Tisdall
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Would the U.S. really go to war with Russia to rescue, say, Estonia or Norway, he asks
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Russia
Limited economic and financial sanctions on @placeholder will expire this summer unless all 28 EU governments agree to extend them.
Ukraine
Ukraine
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Arming the @placeholder would mean war with Russia, a war that Putin would win.
European Union
Putin knows that the deep divisions within the @placeholder over Ukraine are also present within NATO, an alliance with a roughly similar membership.
NATO
Putin knows that the deep divisions within the EU over Ukraine are also present within @placeholder, an alliance with a roughly similar membership.
NATO
Putin knows @placeholder was similarly passive when he took over Crimea by stealth one year ago this month.