President Putin's endgame in Crimea is now clear -- and the West has only a few days to act. On Thursday, the Crimean parliament voted 78-0 to hold a referendum on March 16. The main question will ask whether voters want the region to secede from Ukraine and become part of Russia. Previously, a referendum had been scheduled for March 30 on the less politically charged question of whether Crimea should have greater autonomy within Ukraine. If, as expected, a majority endorses secession, the story will change overnight from one about Russia's unprovoked military invasion to one about a minority's right to self-determination. That is the Kremlin's plan.
@highlight
Daniel Treisman: Only a few days are left to stop the Crimea breakaway
@highlight
He says if Crimea votes to rejoin Russia, that will greatly strengthen Putin's position
@highlight
U.S. and EU need to apply economic pressure, make the case for a "no" vote, he says
@highlight
Treisman: Crimea must see the choice is between prosperity and stagnation
Russia
Russia
Russia
If @placeholder can change the subject in this way, Crimean secession will become an established fact.
Russia
Russia
Russia
In the remaining time before March 16, the West must convince both the Kremlin-connected Russian elite and the population of Crimea that the region's secession to @placeholder would be a mistake.
EU
First, all the @placeholder states plus the United States should make absolutely clear that they will not recognize the results of a referendum held while armed bands of "self-defense forces" roam Crimea.
West
Crimea's tourism industry would have to forget about attracting @placeholder visitors to the region's beaches.
EU
The @placeholder should quickly earmark some portion of the 11 billion euros already promised to Ukraine for projects to develop Crimea's economy if it remains Ukrainian.
Ukraine
Ukraine
The EU should quickly earmark some portion of the 11 billion euros already promised to @placeholder for projects to develop Crimea's economy if it remains Ukrainian.
Crimea
Crimean
Crimea
Crimea
Crimea
Crimea
The EU should quickly earmark some portion of the 11 billion euros already promised to Ukraine for projects to develop @placeholder's economy if it remains Ukrainian.