(CNN) -- All eyes this week are on North Korea, which looks set to move forward with a provocative long-range missile launch. Last month, Pyongyang announced it would launch a rocket carrying a satellite sometime between Thursday and April 16 to mark the 100th anniversary of its founder, Kim Il Sung. Japan, the United States and South Korea see the launch -- which would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions -- as a cover for a long-range ballistic missile test. And a South Korean intelligence report says it's likely to precede a nuclear test, as it did in 2006 and 2009.
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North Korea appears moving ahead with plans to launch a long-range missile
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Analyst Jim Walsh discusses Pyongyang's possible motivations
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Walsh sees some posturing going on, legitimacy building for North Korea's new leader
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He says he thinks situation could escalate into a nuclear test like it did in 2006 and 2009
Japan
That's the real concern I have: not the missile itself but that the missile might stray into foreign airspace and that @placeholder or South Korea might feel inclined to shoot it down and then suddenly we're off to the races with an international incident.
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North Korea
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But I'm afraid what we're really looking at here, further down the road, is there's going to be the missile test, then there's going to be international reaction, and then (@placeholder) is going to have to push back.