A new CNN poll shows that it's back to a toss-up for the 2014 midterms elections. A month ago, Democrats were comfortably ahead 50-42%. Now the Republicans are marginally ahead 49-47%: a 10-point swing in public opinion. Of course, the figures don't actually tell us who will win the next round of congressional elections, but they do remind us of a fact that escapes short-termist political punditry: Voters react to events and are liable to change their mind. The rise and rise of President Obama's unbeatable rainbow coalition is not a historical inevitability but the product of temporary trends. To recap, the story a few months ago was that the Republicans had proved themselves incapable of governing wisely and, therefore, of winning elections. By trying to use the shutdown to force a delay in the further implementation of Obamacare, they were accused of putting partisanship before country, of pushing America to the brink of destruction just to humiliate Obama.
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Tim Stanley: CNN poll shows GOP is now ahead for 2014 midterm elections
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He says it shows voters react to events, in this case Obamacare snafus, are volatile
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He says shutdown hurt GOP, but Christie and Virginia race offered some good news
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Stanley: Obama coalition not inviolable; voters fed up with him and Congress, will shift
Republicans
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Eight in 10 voters disapproved of the shutdown, including two in three @placeholder or independents who lean Republican.
Virginia
Christie's win was probably driven by his personal appeal to voters, but while only 27 percent saw the health law as the top issue, the outcome of the @placeholder contest may well have been influenced by public annoyance over the botched rollout of the Obamacare exchanges.