(CNN) -- As the story goes, in 2010 there was a dramatic political course correction. The electorate that just two years earlier had overwhelmingly voted for hope and change, sweeping Democrats into office, up and down the ballot, across the country, had buyers' remorse. America changed its mind after 2008 and broke hard for the tea party, building a wave that would devastate Democrats. At least that's the conventional lazy narrative about the 2010 midterm elections. That narrative draws a picture of a tea party wave that swept Republicans to victory on the back of a set of conservative policies in reaction to President Barack Obama and Democrats.
@highlight
Cornell Belcher: Conventional wisdom says a tea party wave drove results of 2010 midterms
@highlight
He says numbers show a huge drop in Democratic voters doomed candidates in 2010
@highlight
In midterms, Democrats stand to lose Senate and more if base doesn't turn out, he says
@highlight
Belcher: Young, diverse base of Obama voters can make a difference if they turn out
Republicans
In key battlegrounds, @placeholder have a 17-point advantage in the actual voter turnout between base Democratic precincts and base Republican precincts.
Republicans
In key battlegrounds, Republicans have a 17-point advantage in the actual voter turnout between base Democratic precincts and base @placeholder precincts.
Republicans
While base @placeholder precincts remain fairly energized from presidential to midterm elections, Democratic base precincts do not.
Republicans
In these key battleground states, 65-plus performing Democratic precincts (precincts that vote Democratic at a rate of 65% or better -- in other words, Democratic base) turned out at 34%, while @placeholder 65-plus precincts (precincts that vote Republican at a rate of 65% or better -- base Republican) turned out at 51% as a percentage of registration.
Republicans
In these key battleground states, 65-plus performing Democratic precincts (precincts that vote Democratic at a rate of 65% or better -- in other words, Democratic base) turned out at 34%, while Republican 65-plus precincts (precincts that vote @placeholder at a rate of 65% or better -- base Republican) turned out at 51% as a percentage of registration.
Republicans
In these key battleground states, 65-plus performing Democratic precincts (precincts that vote Democratic at a rate of 65% or better -- in other words, Democratic base) turned out at 34%, while Republican 65-plus precincts (precincts that vote Republican at a rate of 65% or better -- base @placeholder) turned out at 51% as a percentage of registration.
Democrats
Democrats
Democrats
Democratic
Democrats
That in a nutshell is how @placeholder lost in 2010 and how Republicans are poised to have a stellar year again in 2014 -- not a wave, but a Democratic base ebb.
Republicans
Yes, Democrats have to persuade swing voters, but there isn't enough persuasion in the world to make up for a 17 percentage-point difference between Democratic base precincts and @placeholder base precincts; that's a nearly a 2 million vote difference in these five key states alone.
Republicans
@placeholder get that midterms are all about firing up their base.