Price and product variation in Washingtons recreational cannabis market.
Ten U.S. states, Canada, and Uruguay have passed laws to legalize the production and sale of cannabis for non-medical purposes. Available research has documented rapidly falling prices and changing product mixes, but many details are not well understood particularly, the popularity, prices, and product characteristics of different cannabis edibles and extract-based products - each offering different ways to consume cannabis, with unclear health consequences. This paper analyzes data from Washingtons recreational cannabis market, which has recorded over 110 million retail item-transactions from July 2014 to October 2017. Previous research on price and product trends has focused mostly on herbal cannabis, which accounts for the majority, but a decreasing share, of sales. This paper applies advanced text-analytic methods to provide new insights, including (A) estimating potency data for edibles and (B) identifying extract sub-types. Patterns and trends are described, across product types, regarding THC and CBD profiles and price per THC. Extracts accounted for 28.5% of sales in October 2017. Of extracts categorized to subtype, nearly half were identified as dabs, and another half cartridges. In October 2017, price per 10 mg THC was roughly $3 among edibles, 70 cents among extract cartridges, and 30-40 cents for other flower and other extracts solid concentrates offered the lowest priced THC among extract products. Price declines continue but have slowed. High-CBD chemovars are becoming more common, but still are almost non-existent in flower marijuana and rare (1% of sales) among extract products. As Washingtons recreational cannabis market has developed over three and a half years, trends identified in that market may serve as an early indication of potential issues in other states. Legislators and regulators in other jurisdictions with commercial non-medical cannabis markets may wish to establish policies responsive to these trends in product popularity, price, and potency.