Tim the Plumber wrote:
The idea that you can predict the climate based on it's temperature behaviour between 1970 and 1998 is silly. Just as the statement that the absence of warming since 1998 and 2011 cannot utterly disproove AGW the rise between 1970 and 1998 cannot 100% proove the theory that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas at the levels we have today.
Nobody is trying to predict temperatures based on historically temperatures over the last 40 or so. The predictions are based on our understanding of earth's climate over hundreds of millions of years and particularly the last 4 million years of recurring ice ages. The climate while complicated has to obey some very simple basic physical rules that is the energy coming in has over time to equal the energy going out. Change that simple relationship in some way and the temperature will change change until such time as the equation is back in balance. It is certain that greenhouse gases reduce the amount of energy that leaves the earth.
Northern Europe is having a wet and cool summer, it's just America which is having a long, hot and dry one.
No my original statement is correct
According to NOAA:-http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/6
The Northern Hemisphere land and ocean average surface temperature for June 2012 was the all-time warmest June on record, at 1.30°C (2.34°F) above average.
The Northern Hemisphere average land temperature, where the majority of Earth's land is located, was record warmest for June. This makes three months in a row — April, May, and June — in which record-high monthly land temperature records were set. Most areas experienced much higher-than-average monthly temperatures, including most of North America and Eurasia, and northern Africa. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were notably cooler than average.
Tim the Plumber wrote:
When thinking about such climatic events it is vital to have a sense of proportion and not see a tiny change over 3 decades as a reason to think that there will be a drastic "exponential" continuation of this.
The temperatures changes over the last 3 decades simply confirms our basic understanding of the climate.
It is akin to having a graph of the speed of your car traveling along a highway. When the speed is 55mph your pasenger is happy, when the graph plots up to 57 mph the pasenger panics because the car is about to accelerate untill the machine disintergrates at the sound barrier. When the graph shows a slowing to 53mph the panic is of the sudden stopping of the car and the trafic behind slamming into the back of the car.
No it is more being in a car where the cruise control is stuck and the speed just keeps increasing.
Climate varies about quiote a lot.
Because we live fairly short lives we do not rember the droughts of the dust bowl. We do not rember the medevil warm period. We do not rember the frost fairs on the frozen Thames.
This is why we maintain weather data which shows that the current conditions are both worst and different.
We should take these dire warnings with a big pinch of salt.
Dire warnings should be assessed on the merits and action taken if necessary but never ignored
The sea level rose by 18cm last centuary, how many cities flooded because of this? This centuary looks like it could be twice as bad, maybe.
So as long as we split the sea level rises into 18 cm chunks it will be no problem ?
I am reminded of camels transporting straw.