the black population in the united states is 62 percent.
what percentage is the black population in the united states?
62 percent
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after the super tuesday primaries of february 5, 2008, political science researchers from the university of washington found trends suggesting the possibility that with regard to obama, the effect's presence or absence may be dependent on the percentage of the electorate that is black. the researchers noted that to that point in the election season, opinion polls taken just prior to an election tended to overestimate obama in states with a black population below eight percent, to track him within the polls' margins of error in states with a black population between ten and twenty percent, and to underestimate him in states with a black population exceeding twenty-five percent. the first finding suggested the possibility of the bradley effect, while the last finding suggested the possibility of a "reverse" bradley effect in which black voters might have been reluctant to declare to pollsters their support for obama or are underpolled. for example, many general election polls in north carolina and virginia assume that black voters will be 15% to 20% of each state's electorate; they were around a quarter of each state's electorate in 2004. that high support effect has been attributed to high black voter turnout in those states' primaries, with blacks supporting obama by margins that often exceeded 97%. with only one exception, each state that had opinion polls incorrectly predict the outcome of the democratic contest also had polls that accurately predicted the outcome of the state's republican contest, which featured only white candidates).
bradley effect