claim: pandemic infection rates are deterministic but can also be modeled
evidence_1: model predictions fail because the observed infection rates are beyond modeling: any model that uses fixed rates or uses memory or averages of past rates cannot reproduce the data on active infections.", "summaryreferences the pandemic infection rates to two to three decimal places are an example of complexity: the infection rates can be calculated daily from the infections but they cannot be modeled and predicted from fixed initial conditions.", "second, model building does not and cannot reflect real epidemic data because the only correct rates emerge day by day in the daily data, cannot be usefully forecast for more than a few days in advance, and cannot be forecast at all correctly near a peak."
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
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