 The 6.4% decline in spending during Q3 on non-durable goods, like clothing and food, was the largest since 1950.A 17 November 2008 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on the survey of 51 forecasters, suggested that the recession started in April 2008 and would last 14 months.They project real GDP declining at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter of 2009.