 For each contest, "FiveThirtyEight" produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models.As early as June 2015, "FiveThirtyEight" argued that Donald Trump "isn't a real candidate" and, until late in the election season, maintained that Trump could not win the nomination.When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, "New York Times" media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that "predictions can have consequences" and criticized "FiveThirtyEight" for underestimating Trump's chances.