co-twin had reported cannabis use before the age of 18 whereas the other had not. In the cannabis group the lifetime prevalence of later reported use of party drugs was four times higher and the lifetime prevalence of later reported use of hard drugs was seven times higher than in the non-cannabis group. The authors concluded that at least family influences – both genetic and social ones – could not explain the differences. The study noted that, besides a potential causal role of cannabis use, non shared environment factors could play a role in the association such as differing peer affiliations that preceded the cannabis use. Another twin study (of 510 same sex twin pairs) also examined the association of earlier cannabis use and later hard drug use. Like other studies it examined later drug use differences between siblings where one sibling had used cannabis early and the other had not. The study examined identical twins (who share approximately 100% of their genes) and non-identical twins (who share approximately 50% of their genes) separately and adjusted for additional confounders such as peer drug use. It found, after confounder adjustment, that the associations with later hard drug use existed only for non-identical twins. This suggests a significant genetic factor in the likelihood of later hard drug usage. The study suggested that a causal role of cannabis use in later hard drug usage is minimal, if it exists at all, and that cannabis use and hard drug use share the same influencing factors such as genetics and environment. History While the phrase gateway drug was first popularized by anti-drug activists such as Robert DuPont in the 1980s, the underlying ideas had already been discussed since the 1930s by using the phrases stepping-stone theory, escalation hypothesis, or progression hypothesis. The scientific and political discussion has intensified since 1975 after the publications of several longitudinal studies by Denise Kandel and others. In 2020, a study by the National Institute on Drug Abuse determined that marijuana use is "likely to precede use of other licit and illicit substances" and that "adults who reported marijuana use during the first wave of the survey were more likely than adults who did not use marijuana to develop an alcohol use disorder within 3 years; people who used marijuana and already had an alcohol use disorder at the outset were at greater risk of their alcohol use disorder worsening.