in Belize City suffered minor roof damage. At least 19 people were killed in Belize and damages totaled to $280 million (2000 USD). Heavy rainfall also occurred in Mexico, especially in the states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. Flooding from Keith caused several mudslides and a few rivers reached historic levels. Throughout Mexico, at least 460 houses were damaged or destroyed and other losses in infrastructure occurred. In addition, one person drowned due to heavy rainfall. Damages incurred in associated with Keith in Mexico totaled to approximately $365.9 million (2000 MXN, $38.7 million 2000 USD). Overall, Keith was responsible for 68 deaths and $319 million (2000 USD) in damage. Meteorological history On September 16, 2000 a tropical wave – an elongated area of low air pressure moving from east to west – exited the west coast of Africa. It moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean without development due to the presence of upper-level wind shear. After moving across the Caribbean Sea, a disturbance along the wave started to become better organized on September 27. The next day, a Hurricane Hunters flight indicated a closed circulation and winds of ; upon receiving the data, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen at 2100 UTC. The NHC later estimated the depression had formed three hours earlier, about north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios. Upon forming, the depression had good outflow, although the convection was not as organized. With an anticyclone over the system, the depression was expected to gradually intensify while moving slowly to the west-northwest, a motion caused by weak steering winds. Late on September 28, the NHC upgraded the depression to tropical storm status and named it Keith, after another Hurricane Hunters mission reported flight-level winds of . By the time Keith became a tropical storm, it was beginning to undergo rapid deepening, fueled by warm waters, low wind shear, and an organizing cloud pattern. There initially was uncertainty in the storm's future movement, due to a ridge in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone prediction models differed on their assessments; three models anticipated a turn to the northeast toward Florida due to a trough, while others predicted a continued slow motion to the west-northwest, eventually reaching the Bay of Campeche. After continued strengthening, Keith became a hurricane on September 30, just 18 hours after becoming a tropical storm, and making it the seventh such storm