or Cardiff and those targetted at other cities were presumed to miss; in addition to the US bases, the British submarine bases at Holy Loch and Faslane and the main British and NATO military control centres were also assumed not to be targets. Campbell lists 54 targets in the final exercise scenario, down from 105 in a June 1981 plan. He considers that the Home Office and Ministry of Defence had removed "politically undesirable" targets from the scenario. He notes other political decisions affected the exercise: the scale of refugee movements was toned down and references to civil disorder kept vague. The issue of the Protect and Survive booklet to the public was to one of the steps taken in the exercise but its brand had become so embarrassing to the government that it was referred to as the "'Public, Do-It-Yourself Civil Defence" booklet. Even with fewer nuclear weapons the Hard Rock exercise projected largescale damage and loss of life. The CND estimated that an attack of 50 megatons would result in the deaths of 12.5 million people, while an attack with 220 megatons would lead to the deaths of 39 million, some 72% of the population at the time. The CND publicised these estimates under the codename "Hard Luck". Campbell, using a model by Philip Steadman of the Open University and Stan Openshaw of Newcastle University, forecast 12 million deaths or serious injuries, 2 million from the bombing and 5 million from the effects of fallout. Exercise According to Campbell the exercise would have begun with a simulated transition to war period from 19 September, during which the officials in their bunkers would be given simulated daily briefings and news bulletins, including simulations of panic buying and fuel shortages. A war with the Soviet Union was to have broken out at 4.30 am on 27 September with an invasion of West Germany and conventional air raids on the UK. During this time the military had a limited role to play in the exercise, simulating reconnaissance flights over nuclear target areas and practicing moving ships in and out of ports scheduled to remain unaffected. At 8pm on 2 October the exercise forecast the nuclear strike would begin, continuing into the following morning. The exercise would run for a simulated one month post-attack period. Exercise Hard Rock would have focussed on the response by local authorities in the aftermath of the