See Business Cycle. Stock market cycles are proposed patterns that proponents argue may exist in stock markets. Many such cycles have been proposed, such as tying stock market changes to political leadership, or fluctuations in commodity prices. Some stock market patterns are universally recognized (e.g., rotations between dominance of value investing or growth stocks). However, many academics and professional investors are skeptical of any theory claiming to precisely identify or predict stock market cycles. Some sources argue identifying any such patterns as a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of their non-cyclical nature. Changes in stock returns are primarily determined by external factors such as the U.S. monetary policy, the economy, inflation, exchange rates, and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., the 2020-2021 coronavirus pandemic). Intellectual capital does not affect a company stock's current earnings. Intellectual capital contributes to a stock's return growth. Economist Milton Friedman believed that for the most part, excluding very large supply shocks, business declines are more of a monetary phenomenon. Despite the often-applied term cycles, the fluctuations in business economic activity do not exhibit uniform or predictable periodicity. According to standard theory, a decrease in price will result in less supply and more demand, while an increase in price will do the opposite. This works well for most assets but it often works in reverse for stocks due to the mistake many investors make of buying high in a state of euphoria and selling low in a state of fear or panic as a result of the herding instinct. In case an increase in price causes an increase in demand, or a decrease in price causes an increase in supply, this destroys the expected negative feedback loop and prices will be unstable. This can be seen in a bubble or crash. The Efficient-market hypothesis is an assumption that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically "beat the market." Publications Conference Board - Consumer Confidence, Conference Board’s Present Situation Index - Major turns in the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index tend to precede corresponding turns in the unemployment rate—particularly at business cycle peaks (that is, going into recessions). Major upturns in the index also tend to foreshadow cyclical peaks in the unemployment rate, which often occur well after the end of a recession. Another useful feature of the index that can be gleaned from the charts is its ability to signal sustained downturns in