payroll employment. Whenever the year-over-year change in this index has turned negative by more than 15 points, the economy has entered into a recession. The most useful methods to predict business cycle use methods similar to the organization as Eurostat, OECD and Conference Board. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Diffusion Index - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Diffusion Index is a macroeconomic model of Business Cycle Models. [When passing through a value of -0.35, the] “CFNAI Diffusion Index signals the beginnings and ends of [ NBER ] recessions on average one month earlier than the CFNAI-MA3.” … the crossing of a -0.35 threshold by the CFNAI Diffusion Index signaled an increased likelihood of the beginning (from above) and end of a recession (from below)..., Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) - is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Yield Curve - the slope of the yield curve is one of the most powerful predictors of future economic growth, inflation, and recessions., BofA Merrill Lynch - Global Wave - has indicators from around the world such as industrial confidence, consumer confidence, estimate revisions, producer prices, capacity utilization, earnings revisions, and credit spreads. When the Global Wave troughs, THEN the MSCI All Country World equity index is up 14% on average over the next 12 months. JP Morgan - Equities tend to do well in environments featuring rising growth rates as well as falling inflation. S&P 500 return = 9.80% - 6.44 x Max [0, -1.26% - annual change of the GDP growth rate in %]. R2 = 22.4%. See also Technical analysis Market timing Bottom (technical analysis) Market trends and Trend following Histoire des bourses de valeurs (French) References External links Stock market Calendar effect