though later that day, officials changed the forecast to indicate the turn to the south. Peak intensity and final landfall Hurricane Jeanne steadily intensified as it turned eastward, developing a wide eye. A motion to the southeast began on September 22, and around the same time it reached winds of , making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. At the same time, the National Hurricane Center forecast to turn westward and later northwestward, with its projected five-day track within of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The westernmost outlier during one model run was the NOGAPS model, which predicted a continued westward motion across central Florida. The official forecast changed early on September 23 to bring Jeanne across northeastern Florida, though initially the cyclone was predicted to turn northeastward and hit South Carolina as a hurricane. By September 23, Jeanne had begun a slow westward motion, with its previously well-defined eye becoming ragged. It moved slowly over waters it traversed just four days prior, causing upwelling; this is the process in which a stationary storm causes the water temperatures to decrease by bringing the cooler, deeper waters to the surface. As a result, Jeanne weakened to a minimal hurricane midday on September 23, though it was forecast to re-intensify and attain major hurricane status. By early on September 24, the winds had decreased to ; its convection weakened in intensity, and the eyewall eroded due to dry air entrainment. However, as Jeanne moved toward an area of warmer waters, deep convection redeveloped around the eye. Its favorable upper-level environment allowed the outflow to become better defined, with a large eye and nearby dry air being the primary restraining factors for development. At 1200 UTC on September 25, Jeanne attained major hurricane status, and two hours later it made landfall on Abaco Island. After it had been previously forecast to turn northwestward and track along the northeastern Florida coast, the forecast shifted 24 hours prior to moving ashore to a landfall point in the east-central portion of the state; the change was due to the persistence of the ridge to its north. The hurricane moved over Grand Bahama Island, and in the Bahamas it produced wind gusts of up to . As it approached the Florida coastline it did not strengthen much further, due to an eyewall replacement cycle; this is the process in which an outer eyewall forms, causing