issue, spawned by the confrontation between developed and less-developed actors While proliferation is never good, some kinds of proliferation are worse than others. It is the analyst's opinions that competition among suppliers of special nuclear material is sufficiently widespread that diverting national programs will still not deprive a national actor of bomb-grade material. The price of a usable nuclear weapon, when delivery systems, as well as economics, security, and technological investment are considered, is far greater than a nuclear demonstration alone. States divide into several groups, perhaps further divided by their having, or not having, domestic nuclear material production: Nuclear superpowers, which at the time of the report, were the five declared states, Nuclear explosive states (e.g., India) Nuclear abstainers, having the technology but choosing not to develop it (e.g., Canada, Japan, Sweden) Nuclear threshold states, which could develop basic capability in a reasonable time (e.g., Taiwan, Iran, Brazil) ( States that maintain deliberate ambiguity about status (e.g., Israel) The IC questions the value of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a means of preventing proliferation. Only major power arms reduction will encourage marginal states to sign. Long-range missile development may actually be a harder problem for a would-be proliferator to solve, than the construction of a basic nuclear weapon demonstration, so missile technology transfer may be as important as nuclear technology. Yet another variable is that precision guided munitions are, for some military applications, reasonable alternatives, with easier manufacturing and much less political downside, than nuclear weapons. 2002 intelligence on Iraq Prior to the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Muss Destruction, the Intelligence Community (IC) prepared several Community papers on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, and, more specifically, Iraq's nuclear weapons program. In October 1998, the IC published a National Intelligence Council PIC) Memorandum, Current Iraqi WMD Capabilities. In December 2000, the IC published an Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA), Iraq: Steadily Pursuing WMD Cupabilities (ICA 2000-007HCX). The assessment was prepared at the request of the National Security Council (NSC) for a broad update on Iraqi efforts to rebuild WMD and delivery system programs in the absence of weapons inspectors, as well as a review of what remains of the WMD arsenal and outstanding disarmament issues that were the focus of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). On Iraq's nuclear program, the IC also produced a Joint Atomic Energy