The 2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose four representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Hawaii was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 8.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The state has voted Republican only twice since statehood (in the 49-state Republican landslides of 1972 and 1984). As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time Hawaii was decided by a single-digit margin, the last time a Democratic candidate for president failed to receive 60% of the vote in Hawaii, and also the last time a Republican received more than 35% of the vote here. As of , this is the only time Hawaii has voted against an incumbent president who won reelection. Caucuses 2004 Hawaii Democratic caucuses Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat Associated Press: Solid Kerry CNN: Kerry Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat Newsweek: Solid Kerry New York Times: Solid Kerry Rasmussen Reports: Kerry Research 2000: Solid Kerry Washington Post: Kerry Washington Times: Solid Kerry Zogby International: Kerry Washington Dispatch: Kerry Polling Only 4 pre-election polls were taken in the state in the entire 2004 election. Kerry won the first two, which were taken before October, and Bush won the other 2 which were taken in the final month of October. The final RCP average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.9%. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 43%. Fundraising Bush raised $906,799. Kerry raised $279,877. Advertising and visits Neither campaign spent advertising money during the fall campaign. However, with polls showing the race tightening, Vice President Cheney appeared at a campaign rally for the Republican ticket in Honolulu on October 31, 2004. Analysis Bush and Cheney did campaign here early on, but not throughout the entire campaign. Hawaii is considered too much of a Democratic stronghold to be a swing state. Hawaii is represented by two Democratic senators and representatives, and there has never been any competition in a senatorial election. Despite Bush's loss in the state, he improved upon his performance in the state from 2000. More importantly, he had