in the region. The 1868 earthquake occurred well before the East Bay region was extensively urbanized. The following year, in 1869, the William Meek Estate became one of the first developments in the area, built on 3,000 acres (12 km²) in what became known as the Cherryland district of Eden Township. Recent renovations of the Meek Mansion have revealed that with the 1868 earthquake still fresh in minds of residents of the time, some unusual diagonal bracing was built into the original construction. Although its magnitude was less than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the intensity of shaking experienced in the Hayward area may have been greater than in 1906 due to the proximity of the Hayward Fault. Earlier earthquakes have been detected by trench exposure and associated radiocarbon dating. Combined with the historic record, the last five major events were in 1315, 1470, 1630, 1725, and 1868, which have intervals of about 140 years (note that 2018 is 150 years from the major 1868 event). The longest time was the 160-year period between 1470 and 1630. In 2028, it will have been 160 years since the 1868 event. Probability of future activity United States Geological Survey (USGS) scientists state that a major earthquake occurring on the zone is "increasingly likely". When the next major earthquake occurs on the fault, damage will be catastrophic. More than 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in property exists in the affected area, and more than 165 billion US dollars in damage would likely result if the 1868 earthquake were to reoccur. Since the fault runs through heavily populated areas, more than 5 million would be affected directly. Water could be cut off to 2.4 million people living in California's San Francisco Bay Area. For the thirty years following 2014, the probability of there being one or more magnitude 6.7+ earthquakes on the Hayward Fault during that time frame was estimated at 14.3 percent. This is compared to 6.4 percent for the San Andreas Fault, which can have larger earthquakes but is farther away from a significant portion of the urbanized parts of the Bay Area. Earlier (January 2008) assessments suggest that the Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults may be more likely to fail in the next few decades than previously thought. The 140th anniversary of the 1868 event was in 2008, and the average time between the last five major events is also averaged