at 140 years. Recent estimates of the damage potential of a major Hayward Fault earthquake by a professional risk management firm indicate the potential for huge economic losses, of which only a small percentage is insured against earth movement. (Earthquake insurance is not only quite expensive, it tends to be burdened with large deductibles – at least 15 percent). Depending upon seasonal weather conditions at the time of a major event a seismic event could be followed by urban wildfires compounded by damage to water systems or massive landslides in saturated soils. In addition to direct damage the effects on commerce due to damaged infrastructure would also be substantial. Experience with large area urban destruction such as caused by earthquake, hurricane, and firestorms has shown that complete rebuilding can take up to a decade, owing to various factors. The progressively more severe reports and estimates of event probability and consequences have awakened a broad interest in training people for emergency response. It is becoming widely understood that professional fire fighting, police, and medical services will be overwhelmed by a major event and that neighbors will have to assist each other as best they can. Several jurisdictions in the affected area have implemented volunteer Community emergency response team programs to augment the professional response services. In 2012, USGS scientists said the fault was due for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake, with the California Geological Survey concurring, stating they believe there is a 31 percent chance of a magnitude-6.7 earthquake or greater along the Rodgers Creek-Hayward Fault in the next 30 years. In March 2015, the United States Geological Survey released "UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California's Complex Fault System". The UCERF3 represents the best available science to date, and it now considers "multifault ruptures" and "fault readiness", in addition to historical seismicity, in the calculus of earthquake forecasting. The upshot, for those who live in the San Francisco Bay Area, is that experts say there is a 72% chance of experiencing a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake before 2045. Moreover, they had a 51% chance of a M≥7 (threshold to be considered a "major" quake), a 20% chance of a M≥7.5 and a 4% chance of a M≥8 (a "great" quake) when all the mapped faults in the region are taken in to account. Fault effects Fault creep The surface of the fault is creeping at less than 0.5