of several years of slow growth and depreciation of the currency. Sri Lanka was making a strong recovery after lockdowns ended in May 2020 but a new outbreak of Coronavirus slowed exports and industry. The International Monetary Fund initially projected a 4.6-pct contraction for 2020. In the second quarter of 2020 Sri Lanka's GDP was estimated to have contracted by 16% the biggest quarterly fall on record and expanded 2% in the third quarter. In the first nine months of the year, GDP was estimated to have contracted 5%. After growing 5.0% in 2015, growth fell to 4% in 2016, 4% in 2017, 3% in 2018 and 2% in 2019. The economy suffered a series of shocks in the form of a currency crisis which brought an International Monetary Fund program in 2016, political instability in 2018 combined with a second currency crisis and suicide bombings by an Islamist extremist group on Easter Sunday 2019. Fiscal Developments Budget deficit 2019: -6.8%/9.4%, 2020:11.1%/14%, 2021f: -9.4% Sri Lanka is expecting a budget deficit of 9.4% of GDP in 2021, after the nominal output for the year was revised down following a Coronavirus pandemic in 2020. A budget submitted to parliament originally expected a deficit of 8.9% in 2021 with a Coronavirus pandemic slowing growth, compounded by tax cuts. Concerns were raised that the targets were too ambitious given Coronavirus pandemic uncertainties as well as global economic weakness with Fitch Ratings projecting a deficit of 11.5%. The Finance Ministry has countered saying a lower interest bill, a gradual recovery in 2021, stronger foreign direct investments to the Port City will strengthen economic activity and state finances. The Treasury also hopes to borrow more domestically instead of from abroad. Sri Lanka's national debt has been gradually rising amid weak growth and policy gridlock. Following the steep rise in the deficit in 2020, central government debt rose to 101% of GDP. The debt to GDP ratio rose to 86.8% in 2019 from 77.9% in 2017. Budget deficit data controversy Sri Lanka's Ministry of Finance in 2020 changed its cash-basis accounting convention and charged some payment arrears to the previous year, reporting an 11.1% of GDP deficit for 2020 and revising up the 6.8 deficit in 2019 to 9.6%. Sri Lanka's main opposition charged that it was accounting fraud since arrears are always charged to the year it was paid under the country's cash-basis accounting convention.