| 97% 100% | 77% 100% | 17% 85% | 3% 71% | 0% 32% |- |N. CA | 100% 100% | 84% 100% | 55% 96% | 8% 60% | 1% 45% | 0% 25% |- |S. CA | 100% 100% | 77% 100% | 44% 97% | 9% 79% | 2% 68% | 0% 32% |- |SF | 89% 100% | 52% 94% | 27% 84% | 5% 43% | 0% 32% | 0% 21% |- |LA | 84% 100% | 28% 92% | 17% 87% | 5% 77% | 1% 68% | 0% 32% |} 1. From Table 7 in . "M" is moment magnitude (p. 512). Of the six main faults evaluated in previous studies the Southern San Andreas fault remains the most likely to experience an M ≥ 6.7 earthquake in the next 30 years. The largest increase in such likelihood is on the Calaveras fault (see main faults map for location), where the mean (most likely) value is now set at 25%. The old value, of 8%, is less than the minimum now expected (10%). The previous under-estimate is believed to be due mostly to not modeling multifault ruptures, which limited the size of many ruptures. The largest probability decrease is on the San Jacinto fault, which went from 32% to 9%. Again this is due to multifault rupturing, but here the effect is fewer earthquakes, but they are more likely to be bigger (M ≥ 7.7) Table B {| class=wikitable |+ : Aggregate probabilities of an M ≥ 6.7 earthquake within 30 years (and change from UCERF2)1 |- !Fault2 !Section maps3 !QFFDB fault#4 !Length5 !Notable Earthquakes !Min.6 ||Mean ||Max. |- ---------- |San Andreas Fault south | Parkfield Cholame Carrizo Big Bend Mojave N Mojave S San Bernardino N San Bernardino S San Gorgonio Pass N. Branch Mill Cr Coachella | 1f 1g 1h 1i 1j | 546 km339 miles | 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake | 17% (−6%)|| (−7%)|| 93% (−1%) |- ---------- |San Andreas Fault north | Offshore North Coast Peninsula Santa Cruz Mts Creeping Section | 1a 1b 1c 1d 1e | 472 km293 miles | 1906 San Francisco earthquake | 1% (−5%) || (+12%) || 73% (+33%) |- ---------- |Hayward/Rodgers Creek Fault | Rodgers Creek Hayward North Hayward South | 55a 55b 55c 32 | 150 km93 miles | 1868 Hayward earthquake | 14% (−2%) || (0%) || 54% (−14%) |-