that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation. They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific region. As a result, they predicted that the South Pacific region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 48% chance of it being above average. The Western region was predicted to have 56% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 47% chance of being above average. Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and eight tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.4 cyclones. At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while 1-2 might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones. They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Date Line. This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region. The FMS and Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlooks both assessed, the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory. As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near to and to the west of the International Date Line, normal or slightly above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline. It was also predicted that activity between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, as well as east of the International Date Line to be normal or below normal during the season. The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia had a reduced chance of being affected by multiple tropical cyclones. The Cook Islands, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoan Islands, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna and French Polynesia's Austral and Society Islands were all predicted to have a normal chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. Niue and New Zealand were predicted to face an elevated risk while French Polynesia's Tuamotu Archipelago and Marquesas Islands, Kiribati and the Pitcairn Islands, had an unlikely chance of being affected by