were predicted to face an above average chance of being affected by a tropical cyclone. RSMC Nadi also predicted that there was a potential risk in the chances of severe tropical cyclones, affecting the region this year when compared to the previous season. There was a high chance of Tokelau being affected by a tropical cyclone while there was a moderate to high risk for severe tropical cyclones to affect New Caledonia, the Cook Islands, the Samoan Islands and the Solomon Islands. Wallis and Futuna, Tuvalu, Niue and Vanuatu were predicted to have a moderate risk while Fiji and Tonga were thought to have a low to moderate risk of being impacted by a severe tropical cyclone. Seasonal summary The first tropical disturbance of the season developed on November 6, to the southwest of Suva, Fiji which moved towards the southeast over the next day before it was last noted during the next day as it moved out of the tropics. Tropical Disturbance 02F subsequently developed on November 18 to the northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu and over the next few days slowly moved to the west-southwest while gradually developing further. The system almost developed into a weak tropical cyclone as it moved along the Vanuatu Islands causing some locally heavy rain, minor damage and flash flooding, before it was last noted November 24 as it moved out of RSMC Nadi's area of responsibility. After 02F left the tropics, the basin remained quiet until early December when the Australian monsoon pushed eastwards along the South Pacific convergence zone, and a Madden–Julian oscillation caused an increase in tropical cyclone activity. On December 9, RSMC Nadi started to monitor the precursor systems to Tropical Depression 03F and Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan. Systems Tropical Depression 02F Tropical Disturbance 02F developed within a trough of low pressure to the north-east of the Santa Cruz Islands during November 18. Over the next few days the system moved slowly and gradually developed further in an area of low vertical wind shear and was declared a tropical depression during November 20. The system subsequently turned towards the south-southeast and impacted Vanuatu, before it moved into an area of unfavourable conditions for further development, including high vertical wind shear and lower sea surface temperatures during November 22. As a result, convection surrounding the system significantly decreased and detached from the systems low level circulation center. The system was