that the OBR produced forecasts for Welsh devolved taxes. Since December 2014, the OBR has been forecasting the Welsh rate of income tax, stamp-duty land tax, landfill tax and aggregates levy. From April 2019 the OBR is providing the Welsh Government with independent scrutiny of its forecasts. Welfare spending analysis In March 2014, the Charter for Budget Responsibility was modified to include a new cap on welfare expenditure alongside the Government's fiscal mandate. The March 2014 welfare cap puts a limit on the amount that the government could spend on certain social security benefits in the years 2015-16 to 2018-19. The welfare cap was adjusted in December 2015 and restructured in January 2017. The current cap is set against the OBR's November 2017 forecast for welfare cap spending in 2022-23 with adjustments made by HM Treasury in March and October 2018. The cap is preceded by a "pathway" with a growing margin of error to 3 per cent in the target year. The OBR is charged with formally assessing spending against the welfare cap and margin at the first Budget or fiscal update of each new Parliament and monitoring spending against the pathway and margin at each Budget and fiscal update before the formal assessment of the cap. As part of this function, the OBR is required to produce a forecast for welfare spending in scope of the cap in its Economic and fiscal outlook. The welfare cap means that if spending exceeds a certain limit, then policy action must be taken, or the cap level must change, and Parliamentary approval must be obtained. The OBR is required to assess whether welfare spending above the cap is caused by movements in the forecast or by discretionary policy changes. The OBR is also tasked with producing an annual report on trends in welfare spending. Briefing material The OBR undertakes a variety of research projects through the year. It publishes briefing material to inform the public about its work, and provides a same-day briefing on the public finances statistics. The Budget Responsibility Committee members and OBR staff also give talks and presentations at external events. Robert Chote has discussed the role of the OBR, and the difference that it made after its first three years in existence, in a lecture entitled Britain's fiscal watchdog: a view from the kennel on 9 May 2013. Its activities are summarised each year in its Annual