Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W. They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral to borderline La Niña conditions which meant that a westward shift in tropical cyclone activity in the basin was favored. As a result, they predicted that the Western South Pacific region was predicted to have 65% chance of being above average, while the Eastern region had a 40% chance of being above average. Within their outlook RSMC Nadi predicted that between five and eight tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 9 cyclones. A single tropical cyclone was expected to become or exceed category 3 severe tropical cyclone status. They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located within the Coral Sea. This was based on the expected and predicted ENSO conditions, and the existence of the Pacific warm pool of sub-surface temperature anomalies in this region. Risk forecasts Both the Island Climate Update and RSMC Nadi's tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory. As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located within the Coral Sea, RSMC Nadi predicted that island nations located to the west of the dateline had an elevated chance of above average activity. There was a reduced chance of above average activity for the areas located to the east of the dateline, however, French Polynesia was thought to have an enhanced chance of a tropical cyclone later in the season. Seasonal summary Despite predictions of between 5-8 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific Basin, with only two tropical cyclones developing in the basin, while Jasmine moved in from the Australian region. The first tropical disturbance of the season developed on November 13, to the north-east of Fiji and moved south-eastwards before it weakened into an area of low pressure during November 17, as it affected Fiji. On February 6, Cyclone Jasmine moved into RSMC Nadi's area of responsibility, and became the first named tropical cyclone since Tropical Cyclone Bune, the previous March, to exist in the South Pacific basin. Systems Tropical Disturbance 01F On November 13, an area of low pressure located within the South Pacific convergence zone started to rapidly develop further. RSMC Nadi then declared the low-pressure area: Tropical Depression 01F later that day, while it was located about