for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W. They noted that the current neutral ENSO conditions would historically suggest the South Pacific region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season. However, because of the warmer than average sea surface temperatures that were experienced in the central equatorial Pacific between July — September 2012, the western Southern Pacific had a 65% chance for average to below average tropical cyclone activity. For the Eastern part of the region, the BoM predicted that it had a 55% chance of above average tropical cyclones, while for the overall region, they predicted that the region would experience a near average amount of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones. Within their outlook RSMC Nadi predicted that between seven and ten tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.4 cyclones. At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while two-three might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones. They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near the International Date Line. This was based on the ENSO Neutral conditions, and the existence of the warm pool of sea surface and sub surface temperature anomalies near the dateline. Risk forecasts Both the Island Climate Update and RSMC Nadi's tropical cyclone outlooks assessed the risk of a tropical cyclone affecting a certain island or territory. As the tropical cyclone genesis trough of low pressure was expected to be located near the Dateline, normal or above normal activity was expected for areas near the dateline. The Island Climate Update Outlook predicted that most of the countries to the west of the International Date Line, including Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia Tonga and Fiji were expected to experience near normal or slightly above normal activity. At least one or more severe tropical cyclones were expected to occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the season. RSMC Nadi's outlook predicted that New Caledonia, Southern Tonga, Tokelau, Tuvalu, Solomon Islands, Fiji and Vanuatu had an average risk of being affected by a tropical cyclone. Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Northern Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French Polynesia